Climate change in Europe and effects on thermal resources for crops

Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951–2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951–1987 and 1988–2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a “normal heat hours” approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change.     

Climate effects on sulphate flux from forested catchments in south-central Ontario

Net export of sulphate from watersheds may delay the response of surfacewaters to changes in acid deposition. Long-term (18-yr) sulphatebudgets were calculated for 8 headwater streams located in the acid-sensitiveregion of Muskoka-Haliburton, south central Ontario. Sulphate deposition inthisregion has decreased by almost 40% over the last 2 decades, and sulphate exportfrom catchments has also generally declined over time, but most catchments arestill a net source of sulphate to drainage streams. Net export of sulphateoccurred in the majority of catchments in most years of record, but wasparticularly large following dry, warmer than average summers, when stream flowceased for up to several weeks at a time. In years with warm dry summers, suchas occurred in 1983/84 and between 1987/88 and 1990/91, inclusive, streamexportfrom most catchments was between 1.5 and 2 times greater than was input viabulkdeposition. Annual average sulphate concentrations in streams were stronglycorrelated with stream dryness, and were greater in years in which streams weredry for longer periods of time. Temporal patterns of annual sulphateconcentrations and export were highly coherent among the 8 streams, and netsulphate export occurred in both wetland-draining and predominantly uplandstreams. Climate variables, specifically temperature and precipitation act on aregional scale and are likely responsible for similar temporal patterns ofsulphate retention among these 8 physiographically different catchments. Netsulphate export from catchments may delay the recovery of acid impacted surfacewaters, despite reductions in industrial SO₂ emissions.     

Nitrogen and oxygen isotopes in nitrate in the groundwater and surface water discharge from two rural catchments: implications for nitrogen loading to coastal waters

In Prince Edward Island, Canada, widespread intensive potato production has contributed to elevated nitrate concentrations in groundwater and streams, and eutrophic or anoxic conditions occur regularly in several estuarine systems. In this research, the stable isotopes of nitrogen and oxygen in nitrate in intertidal groundwater discharge and stream water were used, in conjunction with water quality and quantity data and land use information, to better understand the characteristics of nitrate delivered to two small estuaries with contrasting land use in their contributory catchments. Most of the water samples collected during the two-year study had isotopic signatures that fell in the range expected for nitrate derived from ammonium-based fertilizers (26.5 % of the samples) or in the overlapping range formed between ammonium-based fertilizers and nitrate derived from soil (64 % of the samples). Overall, isotopic signatures spanned over relatively narrow ranges, and correlations with other water quality parameters, or catchment characteristics, were weak. Nitrate in groundwater discharge and surface water in the Trout River catchment exhibited significantly different isotopic signatures only for the nitrogen isotope, while in the McIntyre Creek catchment groundwater discharge and surface water had similar isotopic signatures. When the isotopic results for the waters from the two catchments were compared, the surface waters were found to be similar, while the isotopic signatures of nitrate in groundwater were distinct only for the nitrogen isotope. Denitrification in the two study catchments was not evident based on the isotopic results for nitrate; however, in the case of the Trout River catchment, where a small freshwater pond exists, an average nitrate load reduction of 14 % was inferred based on a comparison of nitrate loads entering and leaving the pond. Overall, it appears that natural attenuation processes, occurring either in the streams or groundwater flow systems, do not significantly reduce nitrate loading to these estuaries.     

The effects of acidification on metal budgets of lakes and catchments

Metal (Cu, Ni, Zn, Fe, Mn and Al) budgets were measured for 5 lakes and their catchments near Sudbury, Ontario, an area severely affected by the emission and deposition of strong acids (H₂SO₄/SO₂) and metals. Three of the lakes were circum-neutral (pH 6.3–7.1) during the study period, while one lake had a pH of 4.8 and a fifth had very low pH ( 4.4).The lakes' catchments were all sources of Al, Mn and Ni, but were sinks for Cu and Zn. The Fe results were inconsistent; two lakes' catchments were sources while three were sinks.The acidic lakes were conservative (i.e. net retention of zero) with respect to Cu and Ni, while the circum-neutral lakes were effective sinks for these 2 metals. All of the lakes were sinks for Zn and Al, but the acidic lakes were less effective. All lakes were also Fe sinks. While there was no pattern relative to the lakes' pH's, there was a trend towards increasing Fe retention with increasing water replenishment time. The most acidic lake was actually a source of Mn, while the others were sinks.     

The role of ammonium and nitrate retention in the acidification of lakes and forested catchments

The relative contribution of HN0₃ to precipitation acidity in eastern Canada has increased in recent years leading to some concern that the relative importance of NO^– ₃ deposition in acidification of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems may increase. To gauge the extent of this impact, annual mass balances for N0^– ₃ and NH^{+ 4} were calculated for several forested catchments and lakes in Ontario. Retention of NH⁺ ₄ (R _NH4) by forested catchments was consistently high compared to retention of NO₃ ^– (R _NO3) which was highly variable. Retention of inorganic nitrogen was influenced by catchment grade and areal water discharge. In lakes, the reciprocals of retention of N0^– ₃ and NH⁺ ₄ were linearly related to the ratio of lake mean depth to water residence time (z/; equal to areal water discharge), and retention did not appear to be a function of degree of acidification of the lakes. Net N consumption-based acidification of lakes, defined as the ratio of annual NH; mass to N0^– ₃ mass consumption, was negatively correlated with / and N consumption-related acidification was most likely to occur when – was < 1.5 m yr^–1.If retention mechanisms are unaffected by changes in deposition, changes in deposition will still result in changes in surface water concentrations although the changes will be of similar proportions. Therefore, NO^– ₃ saturation should not be defined by concentrations alone, but should be defined as decreasing long-term, average NO^– ₃ retention in streams and lakes in response to long-term increases in NO^– ₃ deposition. Analysis o f survey data will be facilitated by grouping lakes and catchments according to similar characteristics.     

Effects of temperature, salinity and fish in structuring the macroinvertebrate community in shallow lakes: implications for effects of climate change

Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes.     

Climate change and thermal bioclimate in cities: impacts and options for adaptation in Freiburg, Germany

The concept of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of thermal bioclimatic conditions in Freiburg, Germany, to show if days with extreme bioclimatic conditions will change and how extreme thermal conditions can be modified by changes in mean radiant temperature and wind speed. The results show that there will be an increase of days with heat stress (PET > 35°C) in the order of 5% (from 9.2% for 1961–1990) and a decrease of days with cold stress (PET < 0°C) from 16.4% to 3.8% per year. The conditions can be modified by measures modifying radiation and wind speed in the order of more than 10% of days per year by reducing global radiation in complex structures or urban areas.     

Climate change effects on carbon and nitrogen mineralization in peatlands through changes in soil quality

Climate change will directly affect carbon and nitrogen mineralization through changes in temperature and soil moisture, but it may also indirectly affect mineralization rates through changes in soil quality. We used an experimental mesocosm system to examine the effects of 6‐year manipulations of infrared loading (warming) and water‐table level on the potential anaerobic nitrogen and carbon (as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) production) mineralization potentials of bog and fen peat over 11 weeks under uniform anaerobic conditions. To investigate the response of the dominant methanogenic pathways, we also analyzed the stable isotope composition of CH₄ produced in the samples. Bog peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced more CO₂ than bog peat from drier mesocosms. Fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced the most CH₄. Cumulative nitrogen mineralization was lowest in bog peat from the warmest treatment and lowest in the fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment. As all samples were incubated under constant conditions, observed differences in mineralization patterns reflect changes in soil quality in response to climate treatments. The largest treatment effects on carbon mineralization as CO₂ occurred early in the incubations and were ameliorated over time, suggesting that the climate treatments changed the size and/or quality of a small labile carbon pool. CH₄ from the fen peat appeared to be predominately from the acetoclastic pathway, while in the bog peat a strong CH₄ oxidation signal was present despite the anaerobic conditions of our incubations. There was no evidence that changes in soil quality have lead to differences in the dominant methanogenic pathways in these systems. Overall, our results suggest that even relatively short‐term changes in climate can alter the quality of peat in bogs and fens, which could alter the response of peatland carbon and nitrogen mineralization to future climate change.     

Prediction of phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations in lakes from both internal and external loading rates

A model predicting phosphorus and nitrogen concentrations from loading rates was tested using data collected from a shallow, nutrient-rich lake where both internal and external loading occurred. Predicted nutrient concentrations agreed closely with obaerved values and it is suggested that the model could be used to predict the reduction in loading rate required to effect lake restoration.     

Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation

Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs, transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems. Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types (bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios.     

Temporal scales of water-level fluctuations in lakes and their ecological implications

Water-level fluctuations (WLF) of lakes have temporal scales ranging from seconds to hundreds of years. Fluctuations in the lake level generated by an unbalanced water budget resulting from meteorological and hydrological processes, such as precipitation, evaporation and inflow and outflow conditions usually have long temporal scales (days to years) and are here classified as long-term WLF. In contrast, WLF generated by hydrodynamic processes, e.g. basin-scale oscillations and travelling surface waves, have periods in the order of seconds to hours and are classified as short-term WLF. The impact of WLF on abiotic and biotic conditions depends on the temporal scale under consideration and is exemplified using data from Lake Issyk-Kul, the Caspian Sea and Lake Constance. Long-term WLF induce a slow shore line displacement of metres to kilometres, but immediate physical stress due to currents associated with long-term WLF is negligible. Large-scale shore line displacements change the habitat availability for organisms adapted to terrestrial and aquatic conditions over long time scales. Short-term WLF, in contrast, do not significantly displace the boundary between the aquatic and the terrestrial habitat, but impose short-term physical stress on organisms living in the littoral zone and on organic and inorganic particles deposited in the top sediment layers. The interaction of WLF acting on different time scales amplifies their overall impact on the ecosystem, because long-term WLF change the habitat exposed to the physical stress resulting from short-term WLF. Specifically, shore morphology and sediment grain size distribution are the result of a continuous interplay between short- and long-term WLF, the former providing the energy for erosion the latter determining the section of the shore exposed to the erosive power.     

Climate change amplifies gross nitrogen turnover in montane grasslands of Central Europe in both summer and winter seasons

The carbon‐ and nitrogen‐rich soils of montane grasslands are exposed to above‐average warming and to altered precipitation patterns as a result of global change. To investigate the consequences of climatic change for soil nitrogen turnover, we translocated intact plant–soil mesocosms along an elevational gradient, resulting in an increase of the mean annual temperature by approx. 2 °C while decreasing precipitation from approx. 1500 to 1000 mm. Following three years of equilibration, we monitored the dynamics of gross nitrogen turnover and ammonia‐oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA) in soils over an entire year. Gross nitrogen turnover and gene levels of AOB and AOA showed pronounced seasonal dynamics. Both summer and winter periods equally contributed to cumulative annual N turnover. However, highest gross N turnover and abundance of ammonia oxidizers were observed in frozen soil of the climate change site, likely due to physical liberation of organic substrates and their rapid turnover in the unfrozen soil water film. This effect was not observed at the control site, where soil freezing did not occur due to a significant insulating snowpack. Climate change conditions accelerated gross nitrogen mineralization by 250% on average. Increased N mineralization significantly stimulated gross nitrification by AOB rather than by AOA. However, climate change impacts were restricted to the 2–6 cm topsoil and rarely occurred at 12–16 cm depth, where generally much lower N turnover was observed. Our study shows that significant mineralization pulses occur under changing climate, which is likely to result in soil organic matter losses with their associated negative impacts on key soil functions. We also show that N cycling processes in frozen soil can be hot moments for N turnover and thus are of paramount importance for understanding seasonal patterns, annual sum of N turnover and possible climate change feedbacks.     

Increased nutrient loading and rapid changes in phytoplankton expected with climate change in stratified South European lakes: sensitivity of lakes with different trophic state and catchment properties

We hypothesised that increasing winter affluence and summer temperatures, anticipated in southern Europe with climate change, will deteriorate the ecological status of lakes, especially in those with shorter retention time. We tested these hypotheses analysing weekly phytoplankton and chemistry data collected over 2 years of contrasting weather from two adjacent stratified lakes in North Italy, differing from each other by trophic state and water retention time. Dissolved oxygen concentrations were higher in colder hypolimnia of both lakes in the second year following the cold winter, despite the second summer was warmer and the lakes more strongly stratified. Higher loading during the rainy winter and spring increased nutrient (N, P, Si) concentrations, and a phytoplankton based trophic state index, whilst the N/P ratio decreased in both lakes. The weakened Si limitation in the second year enabled an increase of diatom biovolumes in spring in both lakes. Chlorophyll a concentration increased in the oligo-mesotrophic lake, but dropped markedly in the eutrophic lake where the series of commonly occurring cyanobacteria blooms was interrupted. The projected increase of winter precipitation in southern Europe is likely to increase the nutrient loadings to lakes and contribute to their eutrophication. The impact is proportional to the runoff/in-lake concentration ratio of nutrients rather than to the retention time, and is more pronounced in lakes with lower trophy.     

Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe

Bluetongue, a devastating disease of ruminants, has historically made only brief, sporadic incursions into the fringes of Europe. However, since 1998, six strains of bluetongue virus have spread across 12 countries and 800 km further north in Europe than has previously been reported. We suggest that this spread has been driven by recent changes in European climate that have allowed increased virus persistence during winter, the northward expansion of Culicoides imicola, the main bluetongue virus vector, and, beyond this vector's range, transmission by indigenous European Culicoides species - thereby expanding the risk of transmission over larger geographical regions. Understanding this sequence of events may help us predict the emergence of other vector-borne pathogens.     

Nitrate,nitrate reduction and organic nitrogen in plants from different ecological and taxonomic groups of Central Europe

Summary 48 plant species of the families Asteraceae, Chenopodiaceae, Ericaceae, Fabaceae, Lamiaceae, Polygonaceae and Urticaceae were investigated in 14 natural habitats of Central Europe having different nitrate supplies, with respect to their nitrate content, nitrate reductase activity (NRA) and organic nitrogen content. Plants that were flowering were selected where possible for analysis. The plants were subdivided into flowers, laminae, petioles+shoot axes and below-ground organs. Each organ was analyzed separately. Differences among species were found for the three variables investigated. Apart from the Fabaceae, which had particularly high concentrations of organic N, these differences reflect mainly the ecological behaviour, i.e. high nitrate and organic N contents and NRA values per g dry weight were found in species on sites rich in nitrate, and vice versa. Nitrate content, NRA and organic N content were correlated with nitrogen figures of Central European vascular plants defined by Ellenberg (1979). By use of regression equations this correlation was tested with species from other systematic groups. Some species were attributed with calculated N figures for the first time.     

Climate: baselines for the biological effects of environmental change

Establishing biological baselines requires access to organisms which lived earlier in, or before, the present episode of anthropogenic change. Specimens of a bryozoan collected on Scott's Antarctic expeditions, and subsequently, provide clear evidence of recent increases in growth rate after 80 years of constancy.     

Inorganic nitrogen immobilization in live and sterile soil of old-growth conifer and hardwood forests: implications for ecosystem nitrogen retention

Rapid immobilization of inorganic nitrogen (N) in soil contributes to ecosystem N accumulation, even in old-growth and chronically-fertilized forests once thought to have poor N retention capacity. In old-growth conifer and hardwood stands in Pennsylvania, we tested the hypotheses that biotic and abiotic N immobilization are regulated by N form and forest type. We added ¹⁵NH₄ ⁺, ¹⁵NO₂ ^?, and ¹⁵NO₃ ^? to sterile (γ-irradiated) and live organic-horizon soil and define N immobilization as the mass of added ¹⁵N remaining in soil following extractions conducted 15 min, 24 h, and 21 days later. Immobilization of NO₂ ^? (19–25% of added N) occurred in sterile soils within 15 min and was little changed thereafter. Tracer NO₃ ^? immobilization was not observed, although soils had been pretreated (refrigerated) so as to quantify the lower limit of immobilization potential. Immobilization of NH₄ ⁺ (27%) occurred in live conifer soils by 21 days but not in other treatments. In 21-day incubations, tracer N immobilization was greater in NO₃ ^?-poor and humic-rich soils. Immobilization was greater in sterile than in live soil, perhaps owing to artifacts of sterilization. Conifer stands exhibited more massive O-horizons, so NO₂ ^? immobilization per unit area was greater in conifer (1.46 mg N m^?2) than hardwood (0.43 mg N m^?2) stands, possibly accounting for lower N leaching from conifer forests. Areal immobilization rates appear to be fast enough to retain all N transformed to NO₂ ^?, so NO₂ ^? production may be a limiting step in soil N retention in old-growth ecosystems.