Accelerated likelihood surface exploration: the likelihood ratchet

The existence of multiple likelihood maxima necessitates algorithms that explore a large part of the tree space. However, because of computational constraints, stepwise addition-based tree-searching methods do not allow for this exploration in reasonable time. Here, I present an algorithm that increases the speed at which the likelihood landscape can be explored. The iterative algorithm combines the computational speed of distance-based tree construction methods to arrive at approximations of the global optimum with the accuracy of optimality criterion based branch-swapping methods to improve on the result of the starting tree. The algorithm moves between local optima by iteratively perturbing the tree landscape through a process of reweighting randomly drawn samples of the underlying sequence data set. Tests on simulated and real data sets demonstrated that the optimal solution obtained using stepwise addition-based heuristic searches was found faster using the algorithm presented here. Tests on a previously published data set that established the presence of tree islands under maximum likelihood demonstrated that the algorithm identifies the same tree islands in a shorter amount of time than that needed using stepwise addition. The algorithm can be readily applied using standard software for phylogenetic inference.     

Maximum likelihood for parasitologists

In quantitative biology, observed data are fitted to a model that captures the essence of the system under investigation in order to obtain estimates of the parameters of the model, as well as their standard errors and interactions. The fitting is best done by the method of maximum likelihood, though least-squares fits are often used as an approximation because the calculations are perceived to be simpler. Here Brian Williams and Chris Dye argue that the method of maximum likelihood is generally preferable to least squares giving the best estimates of the parameters for data with any given error distribution, and the calculations are no more difficult than for least-squares fitting. They offer a relatively simple explanation of the methods and describe its implementation using examples from leishmaniasis epidemiology.     

Stable and invariant adjusted profile likelihood and directed likelihood for curved exponential models

For curved exponential models, the modified profile likelihoodand the modified directed likelihood are approximated, witherror 0(n^-1) under ordinary repeated sampling, by explicitlydefined and invariant quantities which do not require specificationof an ancillary and which are stable in the sense of havingthe appropriate conditionality property with respect to anyreasonable ancillary.     

Penalized likelihood and multiple testing

The classical multiple testing model remains an important practical area of statistics with new approaches still being developed. In this paper we develop a new multiple testing procedure inspired by a method sometimes used in a problem with a different focus. Namely, the inference after model selection problem. We note that solutions to that problem are often accomplished by making use of a penalized likelihood function. A classic example is the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) method. In this paper we construct a generalized BIC method and evaluate its properties as a multiple testing procedure. The procedure is applicable to a wide variety of statistical models including regression, contrasts, treatment versus control, change point, and others. Numerical work indicates that, in particular, for sparse models the new generalized BIC would be preferred over existing multiple testing procedures.     

Maximum likelihood of phylogenetic networks

MOTIVATION: Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is believed to be ubiquitous among bacteria, and plays a major role in their genome diversification as well as their ability to develop resistance to antibiotics. In light of its evolutionary significance and implications for human health, developing accurate and efficient methods for detecting and reconstructing HGT is imperative. RESULTS: In this article we provide a new HGT-oriented likelihood framework for many problems that involve phylogeny-based HGT detection and reconstruction. Beside the formulation of various likelihood criteria, we show that most of these problems are NP-hard, and offer heuristics for efficient and accurate reconstruction of HGT under these criteria. We implemented our heuristics and used them to analyze biological as well as synthetic data. In both cases, our criteria and heuristics exhibited very good performance with respect to identifying the correct number of HGT events as well as inferring their correct location on the species tree. AVAILABILITY: Implementation of the criteria as well as heuristics and hardness proofs are available from the authors upon request. Hardness proofs can also be downloaded at http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~tamirtul/MLNET/Supp-ML.pdf     

Genome scanning by composite likelihood

Ambitious programs have recently been advocated or launched to create genomewide databases for meta-analysis of association between DNA markers and phenotypes of medical and/or social concern. A necessary but not sufficient condition for success in association mapping is that the data give accurate estimates of both genomic location and its standard error, which are provided for multifactorial phenotypes by composite likelihood. That class includes the Malecot model, which we here apply with an illustrative example. This preliminary analysis leads to five inferences: permutation of cases and controls provides a test of association free of autocorrelation; two hypotheses give similar estimates, but one is consistently more accurate; estimation of the false-discovery rate is extended to causal genes in a small proportion of regions; the minimal data for successful meta-analysis are inferred; and power is robust for all genomic factors except minor-allele frequency. An extension to meta-analysis is proposed. Other approaches to genome scanning and meta-analysis should, if possible, be similarly extended so that their operating characteristics can be compared.     

Maximum likelihood of phylogenetic networks

Bioinformatics (2006) 22(21), 2604–2611 The authors would like to apologize for errors of graph misplacementin Figures 4–6, and an