Evaluating phylogenetic hypotheses of carpoids using stratigraphic congruence indices

Fossil carpoids possess a unique anatomy that is difficult to interpret; as a result, there are a number of competing phylogenetic hypotheses for carpoid taxa. Stratigraphic congruence indices provide a quantitative means of evaluating alternative cladograms where character coding is contentious; trees that show a statistically significant fit between stratigraphy and phylogeny are better supported by the fossil record. We here test the agreement between stratigraphic and cladistic data for 27 carpoid cladograms (24 have previously been published, three are novel). The results demonstrate that in analyses of subsets of carpoid taxa, the stratigraphic congruence of trees is not strongly affected by the interpretative model followed. However, when studying the relationships of carpoids with other deuterostomes, assuming that carpoids should be interpreted by reference to chordates/hemichordates (rather than echinoderms) leads to a poorer fit with the known stratigraphic ranges of taxa. Thus, the disputed calcichordate hypothesis (carpoids interpreted as stem and crown-group chordates and stem-group hemichordates) is much less congruent with stratigraphy than alternative models interpreting carpoids as stem or crown-group echinoderms.     

Fossil ghost ranges are most common in some of the oldest and some of the youngest strata

Biologists routinely compare inferences about the order of evolutionary branching (phylogeny) with the order in which groups appear in the fossil record (stratigraphy). Where they conflict, ghost ranges are inferred: intervals of geological time where a fossil lineage should exist, but for which there is no direct evidence. The presence of very numerous and/or extensive ghost ranges is often believed to imply spurious phylogenies or a misleadingly patchy fossil record, or both. It has usually been assumed that the frequency of ghost ranges should increase with the age of rocks. Previous studies measuring ghost ranges for whole trees in just a small number of temporal bins have found no significant increase with antiquity. This study uses a much higher resolution approach to investigate the gappiness implied by 1,000 animal and plant cladograms over 77 series and stages of the Phanerozoic. It demonstrates that ghost ranges are indeed relatively common in some of the oldest strata. Surprisingly, however, ghost ranges are also relatively common in some of the youngest, fossil-rich rocks. This pattern results from the interplay between several complex factors and is not a simple function of the completeness of the fossil record. The Early Palaeozoic record is likely to be less organismically and stratigraphically complete, and its fossils -- many of which are invertebrates-may be more difficult to analyse cladistically. The Late Cenozoic is subject to the pull of the Recent, but this accounts only partially for the increased gappiness in the younger strata.     

The tree of life and the rock of ages: Are we getting better at estimating phylogeny?

In a recent paper,(1) palaeontologist Mike Benton claimed that our ability to reconstruct accurately the tree of Life may not have improved significantly over the last 100 years. This implies that the cladistic and molecular revolutions may have promulgated as much bad "black box" science as rigorous investigation. Benton's assessment was based on the extent to which cladograms (typically constructed with reference only to distributions of character states) convey the same narrative as the geochronological ages of fossil taxa (an independent data set). Fossil record quality varies greatly between major clades, and the palaeontological dating "yardstick" may be more appropriate for some groups than others.     

Historical phytogeography of the Greater Antilles

An understanding of the phytogeographic history of a region depends upon an adequate fossil record to reveal migrational histories and the timing and directions(s) of introductions and extinctions, and to augment or circumvent undue reliance on molecular clocks. It further depends upon an accurate phylogeny of the taxa to establish real patterns of geographic affinities (phylogeography), and a relatively detailed geologic history to assess the relative roles of dispersal and vicariance in populating the islands. For the Greater Antilles new information is slowly emerging on the plant fossil record through study of new floras such as the Eocene Saramaguacán palynoflora from Cuba, and more is potentially available from the middle Oligocene San Sebastian megafossil flora of Puerto Rico that has not been revised since the early 1900s. Phylogeographic studies and area cladograms are still meager for plants, but data from various animal groups are providing a context for the general biotic history of the Antilles. Perhaps the area of greatest advance is being made in achieving an adequate plate tectonic model for the Caribbean region. There is now some convergence toward a mobilist model that depicts a Cretaceous volcanic island arc that extended from the Mexico/Chortis block in the north to Ecuador in the south, and gradually moved through the developing portal between North and South America to collide with the Bahamas Platform in the middle Eocene. Throughout this 70-million-year history there was an immensely complex pattern of collision/separation and submergence/emergence that provided opportunity both for vicariance and dispersal in the migration, evolution, and speciation of the flora of the Greater Antilles.     

Squamate phylogeny and the relationships of snakes and mosasauroids

Cladistic analysis of extant and fossil squamates (95 characters, 26 taxa) finds the fossil squamate, Coniasaurus Owen, 1850, to be the sister-group of the Mosasauroidea (mosasaurs and aigialosaurs). This clade is supported in all 18 shortest cladograms (464 steps; CI 0.677; HI 0.772) by nine characters of the dermatocranium, maxilla, and mandible. A Strict Consensus Tree of the 18 shortest trees collapses to a basal polytomy for most major squamate clades including the clade (Coniasaurus, Mosasauroidea). A Majority Rule Consensus Tree shows that, in 12 of 18 shortest cladograms, the clade Coniasaurus- Mosasauroidea is the sister-group to snakes (Scolecophidia (Alethinophidia, Dinilysia); this entire clade, referred to as the Pythonomorpha ([[Scolecophidia [Alethinophidia, Dinilysia]], [Coniasaurus, Mosasauroidea]]) is the sister-group to all other scleroglossans. Pythonomorpha is supported in these 12 cladograms by nine characters related to the lower jaw and cranial kinesis. In 6 of 18 shortest cladograms, snakes are the sister-group to the clade (Amphisbaenia (Dibamidae (Gekkonoidea, Eublepharidae))). None of the cladograms support the hypothesis that coniasaurs and mosasauroids are derived varanoid anguimorphs. Two additional analyses were conducted: (1) manipulation and movement of problematic squamate clades while constraining ‘accepted’ relationships; (2) additional cladistic analyses beginning with extant taxa, and sequentially adding fossil taxa. From Test I, at 467 steps, Pythonomorpha can be the sister-group to the Anguimorpha, Scincomorpha, ‘scinco-gekkonomorpha’ [scincomorphs, gekkotans, and amphibaenids-dibamids]. At 471 steps Pythonomorpha can be placed within Varanoidea. Treating only mosasauroids and coniasaurs as a monophyletic group: 469 steps, mosasauroids and coniasaurs as sister-group to Anguimorpha; 479 steps, mosasauroids and coniasaurs nested within Varanoidea. Test II finds snakes to nest within Anguimorpha in a data set of only Mosasauroidea + Extant Squamates; the sistergroup to snakes + anugimorphs is (Amphisbaenia (Dibarnidae (Gekkonoidea, Eublepharidae))). No one particular taxon is identified as a keystone taxon in this analysis, though it appears truc that fossil taxa significantly alter the structure of squamate phylogenetic trees.     

The role of fossils in phylogeny reconstruction: Why is it so difficult to integrate paleobiological and neontological evolutionary biology?

Why has it been so difficult to integrate paleontology and “mainstream” evolutionary biology? Two common answers are: (1) the two fields have fundamentally different aims, and (2) the tensions arise out of disciplinary squabbles for funding and prestige. This paper examines the role of fossil data in phylogeny reconstruction in order to assess these two explanations. I argue that while cladistics has provided a framework within which to integrate fossil character data, the stratigraphic (temporal) component of fossil data has been harder to integrate. A close examination of how fossil data have been used in phylogeny reconstruction suggests that neither explanation is adequate. While some of the tensions between the fields may be intellectual “turf wars,” the second explanation downplays the genuine difficulty of combining the distinctive data of the two fields. Furthermore, it is simply not the case that the two fields pursue completely distinct aims. Systematists do disagree about precisely how to represent phylogeny (e.g., minimalist cladograms or trees with varying levels of detail) but given that every tree presupposes a pattern of branching (a cladogram), these aims are not completely distinct. The central problem has been developing methods that allow scientists to incorporate the distinctive bodies of data generated by these two fields. Further case studies will be required to determine if this explanation holds for other areas of interaction between paleontology and neontology.     

Towards “A Natural History of Data”: Evolving Practices and Epistemologies of Data in Paleontology, 1800–2000

The fossil record is paleontology’s great resource, telling us virtually everything we know about the past history of life. This record, which has been accumulating since the beginning of paleontology as a professional discipline in the early nineteenth century, is a collection of objects. The fossil record exists literally, in the specimen drawers where fossils are kept, and figuratively, in the illustrations and records of fossils compiled in paleontological atlases and compendia. However, as has become increasingly clear since the later twentieth century, the fossil record is also a record of data. Paleontologists now routinely abstract information from the physical fossil record to construct databases that serve as the basis for quantitative analysis of patterns in the history of life. What is the significance of this distinction? While it is often assumed that the orientation towards treating the fossil record as a record of data is an innovation of the computer age, it turns out that nineteenth century paleontology was substantially “data driven.” This paper traces the evolution of data practices and analyses in paleontology, primarily through examination of the compendia in which the fossil record has been recorded over the past 200 years. I argue that the transition towards conceptualizing the fossil record as a record of data began long before the emergence of the technologies associated with modern databases (such as digital computers and modern statistical methods). I will also argue that this history reveals how new forms of visual representation were associated with the transition from seeing the fossil record as a record of objects to one of data or information, which allowed paleontologists to make new visual arguments about their data. While these practices and techniques have become increasingly sophisticated in recent decades, I will show that their basic methodology was in place over a century ago, and that, in a sense, paleontology has always been a “data driven” science.     

A protocol for temporal calibration of general area cladograms

Aim To describe a protocol for incorporating a temporal dimension into historical biogeographical analysis, while maintaining the essential independence of all datasets, involving the generation of general area cladograms. Location Global. Methods General area cladograms (GACs) are a reconstruction of the evolutionary history of a set of areas and unrelated clades within those areas. Nodes on a GAC correspond to speciation events in a group of taxa; general nodes are those at which multiple unrelated clades speciate. We undertake temporal calibration of GACs using molecular clock estimates of splitting events between extant taxa as well as first appearance data from the fossil record. We present two examples based on re‐analysis of previously published data: first, a temporally calibrated GAC generated from secondary Brooks parsimony analysis (BPA) of six extant bird clades from the south‐west of North America using molecular clock estimates of divergence times; and second, an analysis of African Neogene mammals based on a phylogenetic analysis for comparing trees (PACT) analysis. Results A hypothetical example demonstrates how temporal calibration reveals potentially critical information about the timing of both unique and general events, while also illustrating instances of incongruence between dates generated from molecular clock estimates and fossils. For the African Neogene mammal dataset, our analysis reveals that most mammal clades underwent geodispersal associated with the Neogene climatic optimum (c. 16 Ma) and vicariant speciation in central Africa correlated with increased aridity and cooler temperatures around 2.5 Ma. Main conclusions Temporally calibrated GACs are valuable tools for assessing whether coordinated patterns of speciation are associated with large‐scale climatic or tectonic phenomena.     

Molecular paleobiological insights into the origin of the Brachiopoda

Most studies of brachiopod evolution have been based on their extensive fossil record, but molecular techniques, due to their independence from the rock record, can offer new insights into the evolution of a clade. Previous molecular phylogenetic hypotheses of brachiopod interrelationships place phoronids within the brachiopods as the sister group to the inarticulates, whereas morphological considerations suggest that Brachiopoda is a monophyletic group. Here, these hypotheses were tested with a molecular phylogenetic analysis of seven nuclear housekeeping genes combined with three ribosomal genes. The combined analysis finds brachiopods to be monophyletic, but with relatively weak support, and the craniid as the sister taxon of all other brachiopods. Phylogenetic-signal dissection suggests that the weak support is caused by the instability of the craniid, which is attracted to the phoronids. Analysis of slowly evolving sites results in a robustly supported monophyletic Brachiopoda and Inarticulata (Linguliformea+Craniiformea), which is regarded as the most likely topology for brachiopod interrelationships. The monophyly of Brachiopoda was further tested with microRNA-based phylogenetics, which are small, noncoding RNA genes whose presence and absence can be used to infer phylogenetic relationships. Two novel microRNAs were characterized supporting the monophyly of brachiopods. Congruence of the traditional molecular phylogenetic analysis, microRNAs, and morphological cladograms suggest that Brachiopoda is monophyletic with Phoronida as its likely sister group. Molecular clock analysis suggests that extant phoronids have a Paleozoic divergence despite their conservative morphology, and that the early brachiopod fossil record is robust, and is not affected by taphonomic factors relating to the late-Precambrian/early-Cambrian phosphogenic event.     

Molecular dating and phylogenetic relationships among Teiidae (Squamata) inferred by molecular and morphological data

We present a phylogenetic analysis of teiid lizards based on partitioned and combined analyses of 12S and 16S mitochondrial DNA sequences, and morphological and ultrastructural characters. There were some divergences between 12S and 16S cladograms, but phylogenetic analyses of the combined molecular data corroborated the monophyly of Tupinambinae, Teiinae, and "cnemidophorines", with high support values. The total combined analysis (molecules+morphology) produced similar results, with well-supported Teiinae and "cnemidophorines". We present an evolutionary scenario for the evolution of Teiidae, based on molecular dating of evolutionary events using Bayesian methods, ancestral areas analysis, the fossil record, the geographic distribution of genera, and environmental and geologic changes during the Tertiary. According to this scenario, (1) all current teiid genera, except Aspidoscelis, originated in isolation in South America; (2) most teiid genera originated during the Eocene, a period characterized by savanna expansion in South America; and (3) Cnemidophorus originated in South America, after which some populations dispersed to Central America during the Late Miocene.     

What Does Palaeontology Contribute to Systematics in a Molecular World?

Palaeontology provides the only direct record for morphological and genetic change through time and uniquely contributes to systematics in two ways: by providing access to denser taxon sampling than is otherwise possible and by dating divergence times. Claims that ancient DNA has survived millions of years in certain fossils suggested the possibility that palaeontology could contribute directly to molecular systematic studies. Unfortunately, none of the supposed geologically ancient DNA records stands up to detailed scrutiny and fossils therefore contribute primarily through the morphological information they preserve. Denser taxon sampling can improve the accuracy of phylogenetic estimates primarily through allowing better discrimination of homoplasy from homology. This in turn leads to more accurate hypotheses of character transformation. Denser taxon sampling also offers the opportunity for more accurate rooting, since more characters can be polarized by reference to a stem-group taxon than to an extant sister-group taxon. Missing data can be a problem for fossils, but is not crippling. Finally the temporal order of clade appearances in the fossil record can provide ancillary evidence for selecting a working phylogeny from among a number of equally most parsimonious cladograms.     

Evolutionary diversification of reef corals: a comparison of the molecular and fossil records

Understanding historical patterns of diversity dynamics is of paramount importance for many evolutionary questions. The fossil record has long been the only source of information on patterns of diversification, but the molecular record, derived from time-calibrated phylogenies, is becoming an important additional resource. Both fossil and molecular approaches have shortcomings and biases. These have been well studied for fossil data but much less so for molecular data and empirical comparisons between approaches are lacking. Here, we compare the patterns of diversification derived from fossil and molecular data in scleractinian reef coral species. We also assess the robustness of molecular diversification rates to poor taxon sampling. We find that the temporal pattern of molecular diversification rates is robust to incomplete sampling when rates are calculated per interval. The major obstacle of molecular methods is that rate estimates are distorted because diversification rates can never be negative, whereas the fossil record suffers from incomplete preservation and inconsistent taxonomy. Nevertheless, the molecular pattern of diversification is comparable to the pattern we observe in the fossil record, with the timing of major diversification pulses coinciding in each dataset. For example, both agree that the end-Triassic coral extinction was a catastrophic bottleneck in scleractinian evolution.     

ON CONSENSUS, COLLAPSIBILITY, AND CLADE CONCORDANCE

Abstract — Consensus in cladistics is reviewed. Consensus trees, which summarize the agreement in grouping among a set of cladograms, are distinguished from compromise trees, which may contain groups that do not appear in all the cladograms being compared. Only a strict or Nelson tree is an actual consensus. This distinction has implications for the concept of support for cladograms: only those branches supported under all possible optimizations are unambiguously supported. We refer to such cladograms as strictly supported, in contrast to the semistrictly (ambiguously) supported cladograms output by various current microcomputer programs for cladistic analysis. Such semistrictly supported cladograms may be collapsed, however, by a variety of options in various programs. Consideration of collapsibility and optimization on multifurcations leads to some conclusions on the use of consensus. Consensus tree length provides information about character conflict that occurs between, not within, cladograms. We propose the clade concordance index, which employs the consensus tree length to measure inter-cladogram character conflict for all characters among a set of cladograms.     

Inferring hominoid and early hominid phylogeny using craniodental characters: the role of fossil taxa

Recent discoveries of new fossil hominid species have been accompanied by several phylogenetic hypotheses. All of these hypotheses are based on a consideration of hominid craniodental morphology. However, Collard and Wood (2000) suggested that cladograms derived from craniodental data are inconsistent with the prevailing hypothesis of ape phylogeny based on molecular data. The implication of their study is that craniodental characters are unreliable indicators of phylogeny in hominoids and fossil hominids but, notably, their analysis did not include extinct species. We report here on a cladistic analysis designed to test whether the inclusion of fossil taxa affects the ability of morphological characters to recover the molecular ape phylogeny. In the process of doing so, the study tests both Collard and Wood's (2000) hypothesis of character reliability, and the several recently proposed hypotheses of early hominid phylogeny. One hundred and ninety-eight craniodental characters were examined, including 109 traits that traditionally have been of interest in prior studies of hominoid and early hominid phylogeny, and 89 craniometric traits that represent size-corrected linear dimensions measured between standard cranial landmarks. The characters were partitioned into two data sets. One set contained all of the characters, and the other omitted the craniometric characters. Six parsimony analyses were performed; each data set was analyzed three times, once using an ingroup that consisted only of extant hominoids, a second time using an ingroup of extant hominoids and extinct early hominids, and a third time excluding Kenyanthropus platyops. Results suggest that the inclusion of fossil taxa can play a significant role in phylogenetic analysis. Analyses that examined only extant taxa produced most parsimonious cladograms that were inconsistent with the ape molecular tree. In contrast, analyses that included fossil hominids were consistent with that tree. This consistency refutes the basis for the hypothesis that craniodental characters are unreliable for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships. Regarding early hominids, the relationships of Sahelanthropus tchadensis and Ardipithecus ramidus were relatively unstable. However, there is tentative support for the hypotheses that S. tchadensis is the sister taxon of all other hominids. There is support for the hypothesis that A. anamensis is the sister taxon of all hominids except S. tchadensis and Ar. ramidus. There is no compelling support for the hypothesis that Kenyanthropus platyops shares especially close affinities with Homo rudolfensis. Rather, K. platyops is nested within the Homo + Paranthropus + Australopithecus africanus clade. If K. platyops is a valid species, these relationships suggest that Homo and Paranthropus are likely to have diverged from other hominids much earlier than previously supposed. There is no support for the hypothesis that A. garhi is either the sister taxon or direct ancestor of the genus Homo. Phylogenetic relationships indicate that Australopithecus is paraphyletic. Thus, A. anamensis and A. garhi should be allocated to new genera.     

Testing the molecular clock: molecular and paleontological estimates of divergence times in the Echinoidea (Echinodermata)

The phylogenetic relationships of 46 echinoids, with representatives from 13 of the 14 ordinal-level clades and about 70% of extant families commonly recognized, have been established from 3 genes (3,226 alignable bases) and 119 morphological characters. Morphological and molecular estimates are similar enough to be considered suboptimal estimates of one another, and the combined data provide a tree that, when calibrated against the fossil record, provides paleontological estimates of divergence times and completeness of their fossil record. The order of branching on the cladogram largely agrees with the stratigraphic order of first occurrences and implies that their fossil record is more than 85% complete at family level and at a resolution of 5-Myr time intervals. Molecular estimates of divergence times derived from applying both molecular clock and relaxed molecular clock models are concordant with estimates based on the fossil record in up to 70% of cases, with most concordant results obtained using Sanderson's semiparametric penalized likelihood method and a logarithmic-penalty function. There are 3 regions of the tree where molecular and fossil estimates of divergence time consistently disagree. Comparison with results obtained when molecular divergence dates are estimated from the combined (morphology + gene) tree suggests that errors in phylogenetic reconstruction explain only one of these. In another region the error most likely lies with the paleontological estimates because taxa in this region are demonstrated to have a very poor fossil record. In the third case, morphological and paleontological evidence is much stronger, and the topology for this part of the molecular tree differs from that derived from the combined data. Here the cause of the mismatch is unclear but could be methodological, arising from marked inequality of molecular rates. Overall, the level of agreement reached between these different data and methodological approaches leads us to believe that careful application of likelihood and Bayesian methods to molecular data provides realistic divergence time estimates in the majority of cases (almost 80% in this specific example), thus providing a remarkably well-calibrated phylogeny of a character-rich clade of ubiquitous marine benthic invertebrates.     

Phylogenetic analysis of higher-level relationships of Odonata

Abstract. This is the most comprehensive analysis of higher‐level relationships in Odonata conducted thus far. The analysis was based on a detailed study of the skeletal morphology and wing venation of adults, complemented with a few larval characters, resulting in 122 phylogenetically informative characters. Eighty‐five genera from forty‐five currently recognized families and subfamilies were examined. In most cases, several species were chosen to serve as exemplars for a given genus. The seven fossil outgroup taxa included were exemplar genera from five successively more distant odonatoid orders and suborders: Tarsophlebiidae (the closest sister group of Odonata, previously placed as a family within ‘Anisozygoptera’), Archizygoptera, Protanisoptera, Protodonata and Geroptera. Parsimony analysis of the data, in which characters were treated both under equal weights and implied weighting, produced cladograms that were highly congruent, and in spite of considerable homoplasy in the odonate data, many groupings in the most parsimonious cladograms were well supported in all analyses, as indicated by Bremer support. The analyses supported the monophyly of both Anisoptera and Zygoptera, contrary to the well known hypothesis of zygopteran paraphyly. Within Zygoptera, two large sister clades were indicated, one comprised of the classical (Selysian) Calopterygoidea, except that Amphipterygidae, which have traditionally been placed as a calopterygoid family, nested within the other large zygopteran clade comprised of Fraser's ‘Lestinoidea’ plus ‘Coenagrionoidea’ (both of which were shown to be paraphyletic as currently defined). Philoganga alone appeared as the sister group to the rest of the Zygoptera in unweighted cladograms, whereas Philoganga + Diphlebia comprised the sister group to the remaining Zygoptera in all weighted cladograms. ‘Anisozygoptera’ was confirmed as a paraphyletic assemblage that forms a ‘grade’ towards the true Anisoptera, with Epiophlebia as the most basal taxon. Within Anisoptera, Petaluridae appeared as the sister group to other dragonflies.     

CONGRUENCE BETWEEN SUPERPOSITIONAL AND PHYLOGENETIC PATTERNS: COMPARING CLADISTIC PATTERNS WITH FOSSIL RECORDS

Abstract— As the only direct evidence of past organismic history, the fossil record has always figured importantly in the reconstruction of phylogeny. But the incomplete nature of the fossil record has also been cited as a basis for claiming that fossils play only a secondary role in developing phylogenetic hypotheses that encompass extant taxa. The reliability of fossil data in such applications is a function of the degree of fit between superpositional relationships and the sequence of phylogenetic events. Thirty-eight vertebrate cases are examined for the fit between age data based on fossil first occurrences and phylogenetic results based on cladistic analysis. A general correspondence between superpositional and cladistic information is observed, although the degree of fit varies widely among cases. Horses, certain other ungulates, synapsids and basal archosaurs, which show very high correlations, are taxa characterized by an abundance of superpositional and cladistic data. Other groups, such as primates, show very poor correlations because certain major clades have either unreasonably short fossil durations or no fossil record at all. Correlations are also diminished when either fossil records or cladistic sequences are poorly resolved. In most cases, cladistic resolution was observed to exceed superpositional resolution. Correlations can be enhanced by more precise (e.g. radiometric) age dates, but these also place a high expectation on the fit between fossil first occurrence and cladistic results. Stratigraphic occurrence does not always provide a precise reflection of independently derived phylogenies, but the correspondence between age and cladistic information is remarkably high in a notable number of vertebrate examples.     

The fossil record of the sixth extinction

Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (< 9%) have a fossil record, compared with 20% of non‐threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19^th century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record.     

A palaeobiological examination of the geological evidence for recurring outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfish,Acanthaster planci (L.)

Geological investigations of the crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) have concluded that outbreaks are not only recent but also have occurred in the past. The evidence lies in the abundance of COTS skeletal elements found both on the sea floor and within the underlying sedimentary record. These studies are flawed in three respects. First, the processes of fossil preservation from the living population to the fossil assemblage have been ignored. Second, it has not been demonstrated that the fossil skeletal elements representing alleged outbreak populations of starfish are of the same age. Third, the existence of a relationship between the number of COTS skeletal elements sampled from the sedimentary record and the relative abundance of COTS in the once living population has not been substantiated. The limitations introduced when studying the fossil record need to be established through taphonomic analyses of the COTS. Techniques which will allow greater temporal resolution of skeletal element age include amino-acid geochronology, analysis of sedimentation mode and rate, and correlation among sub-surface cores. In order to establish a relationship between the number of fossil COTS elements and the original population size, methods must be developed which will relate the number of fossil skeletal elements to the relative abundance of starfish in both the fossil and death assemblages and then to relate the latter to the relative size of the original population. When these approaches are used together it may be possible to make some estimate of relative COTS abundances based on data contained in the fossil record.     

On formation‐based sampling proxies and why they should not be used to correct the fossil record

The fossil record is a unique resource on the history of life, but it is well known to be incomplete. In a series of high‐profile papers, a residual modelling technique has been applied to correct the raw palaeodiversity signal for this bias and incompleteness, and the claim is made that the processed time series are more accurate than the raw data. We apply empirical and simulation approaches to test for correlation and directionality of any relationships between rock and fossil data. The empirical data comprise samples of the global fossil record through the Phanerozoic, and we use simulations to assess whether randomly sampled subsets of modelled data can be improved by application of the residual modelling technique. Our results show that using formation counts as a sampling proxy to correct the fossil record via residual modelling is ill founded. The supposedly independent model of sampling is information‐redundant with respect to the raw palaeodiversity data it seeks to correct, and so the outputs are generally likely to be further from the truth than the raw data. We recommend that students of palaeodiversity cease to use residual modelling estimates based on formation counts, and suggest that results from a substantial number of papers published in the past ten years require re‐evaluation.