Predictive symptoms for COVID-19 in the community: REACT-1 study of over 1 million people

BackgroundRapid detection, isolation, and contact tracing of community COVID-19 cases are essential measures to limit the community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to identify a parsimonious set of symptoms that jointly predict COVID-19 and investigated whether predictive symptoms differ between the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) lineage (predominating as of April 2021 in the US, UK, and elsewhere) and wild type.Methods and findingsWe obtained throat and nose swabs with valid SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results from 1,147,370 volunteers aged 5 years and above (6,450 positive cases) in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. This study involved repeated community-based random surveys of prevalence in England (study rounds 2 to 8, June 2020 to January 2021, response rates 22%–27%). Participants were asked about symptoms occurring in the week prior to testing. Viral genome sequencing was carried out for PCR-positive samples with N-gene cycle threshold value < 34 (N = 1,079) in round 8 (January 2021). In univariate analysis, all 26 surveyed symptoms were associated with PCR positivity compared with non-symptomatic people. Stability selection (1,000 penalized logistic regression models with 50% subsampling) among people reporting at least 1 symptom identified 7 symptoms as jointly and positively predictive of PCR positivity in rounds 2–7 (June to December 2020): loss or change of sense of smell, loss or change of sense of taste, fever, new persistent cough, chills, appetite loss, and muscle aches. The resulting model (rounds 2–7) predicted PCR positivity in round 8 with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77. The same 7 symptoms were selected as jointly predictive of B.1.1.7 infection in round 8, although when comparing B.1.1.7 with wild type, new persistent cough and sore throat were more predictive of B.1.1.7 infection while loss or change of sense of smell was more predictive of the wild type. The main limitations of our study are (i) potential participation bias despite random sampling of named individuals from the National Health Service register and weighting designed to achieve a representative sample of the population of England and (ii) the necessary reliance on self-reported symptoms, which may be prone to recall bias and may therefore lead to biased estimates of symptom prevalence in England.ConclusionsWhere testing capacity is limited, it is important to use tests in the most efficient way possible. We identified a set of 7 symptoms that, when considered together, maximize detection of COVID-19 in the community, including infection with the B.1.1.7 lineage.

Joshua Elliot, Matthew Whitaker, and colleagues investigate predictive symptoms for community COVID-19 cases in the REACT-1 study.     

An ethics of anthropology-informed community engagement with COVID-19 clinical trials in Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the critical role of ethics and community engagement in designing and conducting clinical research during infectious disease outbreaks where no vaccine or treatment already exists. In reviewing current practices across Africa, we distinguish between three distinct roles for community engagement in clinical research that are often conflated: 1) the importance of community engagement for identifying and honouring cultural sensitivities; 2) the importance of recognising the socio-political context in which the research is proposed; and 3) the importance of understanding what is in the interest of communities recruited to research according to their own views and values. By making these distinctions, we show that current practice of clinical research could draw on anthropology in ways which are sometimes unnecessary to solicit local cultural values, overlook the importance of socio-political contexts and wider societal structures within which it works, potentially serving to reinforce unjust political or social regimes, and threaten to cast doubt on the trustworthiness of the research. We argue that more discerning anthropological engagement as well as wider collaboration with other social scientists and those working in the humanities is urgently needed to improve the ethics of current biomedical and pharmaceutical research practice in Africa.     

COVID-19 one year later: a retrospect of CRISPR-Cas system in combating COVID-19

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an infectious disease caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has posed a persistent global threat. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is wide and swift. Rapid detection of the viral RNA and effective therapy are imperative to prevent the worldwide spread of the new infectious disease. Clustered Regularly-Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)- CRISPR-associated protein (Cas) system is an RNA-directed adaptive immune system, and it has been transformed into a gene editing tool. Applications of CRISPR-Cas system involves in many fields, such as human gene therapy, drug discovery and disease diagnosis. Under the background of COVID-19 pandemic, CRISPR-Cas system shows hidden capacity to fight the emergency in many aspects. This review will focus on the role of gene editing in COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment. We will describe the potential use of CRISPR-Cas-based system in combating COVID-19, from diagnosis to treatment. Furthermore, the limitation and perspectives of this novel technology are also evaluated.     

Emergency response to the outbreak of COVID-19: the Korean case

This letter aims to describe how Korea can improve its emergency response to the outbreak of COVID-19. The key finding is that the nation has to shift from a self-interest–oriented response to a shared-interest–oriented response. Similarly, neighboring nations could form a national framework of networks among stakeholders.     

COVID-19: vaccination problems

This minireview addresses problems of financing the vaccine development, regulatory questions, the ethics and efficacy of vaccine prioritization strategies and the coverage of variant viruses by current vaccines. Serious adverse effects observed with adenovirus vectored vaccines and mRNA vaccines in mass vaccination campaigns are reported. The ethical problems of continuing with placebo controlled vaccine trials and alternative clinical trial protocols are discussed as well as concrete vaccination issues such as the splitting of doses, the delaying of the second dose, the immunization with two different vaccine types and the need of vaccinating seropositive subjects. Strategies to increase vaccine acceptance in the population are shortly mentioned.     

COVID-19: From pathogenesis models to the first drug trials

The number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2, and sadly dying from COVID-19, has exploded, and so the amount of literature on the novel coronavirus and the disease it causes has increased proportionately. The case numbers in some countries are beyond the epidemic peak, but the uncertainty about a second wave keeps politicians and societies under pressure. Appropriate decision-making and winning support from the population depends on precise scientific information rather than leaving the field to scaremongers of all proveniences. This mini-review is an update of earlier reports (Brüssow, Microb Biotechnol 2020a;13:607; Brüssow, Microb Biotechnol 2020b; https://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.13592 ).     

Sales of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine in India during the COVID-19 epidemic: An interrupted time series analysis

BackgroundWe assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in India on the consumption of antibiotics and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the private sector in 2020 compared to the expected level of use had the epidemic not occurred.Methods and findingsWe performed interrupted time series (ITS) analyses of sales volumes reported in standard units (i.e., doses), collected at regular monthly intervals from January 2018 to December 2020 and obtained from IQVIA, India. As children are less prone to develop symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we hypothesized a predominant increase in non-child-appropriate formulation (non-CAF) sales. COVID-19-attributable changes in the level and trend of monthly sales of total antibiotics, azithromycin, and HCQ were estimated, accounting for seasonality and lockdown period where appropriate. A total of 16,290 million doses of antibiotics were sold in India in 2020, which is slightly less than the amount in 2018 and 2019. However, the proportion of non-CAF antibiotics increased from 72.5% (95% CI: 71.8% to 73.1%) in 2019 to 76.8% (95% CI: 76.2% to 77.5%) in 2020. Our ITS analyses estimated that COVID-19 likely contributed to 216.4 million (95% CI: 68.0 to 364.8 million; P = 0.008) excess doses of non-CAF antibiotics and 38.0 million (95% CI: 26.4 to 49.2 million; P < 0.001) excess doses of non-CAF azithromycin (equivalent to a minimum of 6.2 million azithromycin treatment courses) between June and September 2020, i.e., until the peak of the first epidemic wave, after which a negative change in trend was identified. In March 2020, we estimated a COVID-19-attributable change in level of +11.1 million doses (95% CI: 9.2 to 13.0 million; P < 0.001) for HCQ sales, whereas a weak negative change in monthly trend was found for this drug. Study limitations include the lack of coverage of the public healthcare sector, the inability to distinguish antibiotic and HCQ sales in inpatient versus outpatient care, and the suboptimal number of pre- and post-epidemic data points, which could have prevented an accurate adjustment for seasonal trends despite the robustness of our statistical approaches.ConclusionsA significant increase in non-CAF antibiotic sales, and particularly azithromycin, occurred during the peak phase of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in India, indicating the need for urgent antibiotic stewardship measures.

Giorgia Sulis and co-workers analyze sales of antimicrobials and hydroxchloroquine in India during 2018-20 to assess possible changes across the COVID-19 epidemic.