Bias in the prediction of genetic gain due to mass and half-sib selection in random mating populations

The prediction of gains from selection allows the comparison of breeding methods and selection strategies, although these estimates may be biased. The objective of this study was to investigate the extent of such bias in predicting genetic gain. For this, we simulated 10 cycles of a hypothetical breeding program that involved seven traits, three population classes, three experimental conditions and two breeding methods (mass and half-sib selection). Each combination of trait, population, heritability, method and cycle was repeated 10 times. The predicted gains were biased, even when the genetic parameters were estimated without error. Gain from selection in both genders is twice the gain from selection in a single gender only in the absence of dominance. The use of genotypic variance or broad sense heritability in the predictions represented an additional source of bias. Predictions based on additive variance and narrow sense heritability were equivalent, as were predictions based on genotypic variance and broad sense heritability. The predictions based on mass and family selection were suitable for comparing selection strategies, whereas those based on selection within progenies showed the largest bias and lower association with the realized gain.     

Gene-environment interactions in complex diseases: genetic models and methods for QTL mapping in multiple half-sib populations

An interval quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping method for complex polygenic diseases (as binary traits) showing QTL by environment interactions (QEI) was developed for outbred populations on a within-family basis. The main objectives, within the above context, were to investigate selection of genetic models and to compare liability or generalized interval mapping (GIM) and linear regression interval mapping (RIM) methods. Two different genetic models were used: one with main QTL and QEI effects (QEI model) and the other with only a main QTL effect (QTL model). Over 30 types of binary disease data as well as six types of continuous data were simulated and analysed by RIM and GIM. Using table values for significance testing, results show that RIM had an increased false detection rate (FDR) for testing interactions which was attributable to scale effects on the binary scale. GIM did not suffer from a high FDR for testing interactions. The use of empirical thresholds, which effectively means higher thresholds for RIM for testing interactions, could repair this increased FDR for RIM, but such empirical thresholds would have to be derived for each case because the amount of FDR depends on the incidence on the binary scale. RIM still suffered from higher biases (15-100% over- or under-estimation of true values) and high standard errors in QTL variance and location estimates than GIM for QEI models. Hence GIM is recommended for disease QTL mapping with QEI. In the presence of QEI, the model including QEI has more power (20-80% increase) to detect the QTL when the average QTL effect is small (in a situation where the model with a main QTL only is not too powerful). Top-down model selection is proposed in which a full test for QEI is conducted first and then the model is subsequently simplified. Methods and results will be applicable to human, plant and animal QTL mapping experiments.     

Power of QTL detection by either fixed or random models in half-sib designs

The aim of this study was to compare the variance component approach for QTL linkage mapping in half-sib designs to the simple regression method. Empirical power was determined by Monte Carlo simulation in granddaughter designs. The factors studied (base values in parentheses) included the number of sires (5) and sons per sire (80), ratio of QTL variance to total genetic variance (λ = 0.1), marker spacing (10 cM), and QTL allele frequency (0.5). A single bi-allelic QTL and six equally spaced markers with six alleles each were simulated. Empirical power using the regression method was 0.80, 0.92 and 0.98 for 5, 10, and 20 sires, respectively, versus 0.88, 0.98 and 0.99 using the variance component method. Power was 0.74, 0.80, 0.93, and 0.95 using regression versus 0.77, 0.88, 0.94, and 0.97 using the variance component method for QTL variance ratios (λ) of 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3, respectively. Power was 0.79, 0.85, 0.80 and 0.87 using regression versus 0.80, 0.86, 0.88, and 0.85 using the variance component method for QTL allele frequencies of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.8, respectively. The log₁₀ of type I error profiles were quite flat at close marker spacing (1 cM), confirming the inability to fine-map QTL by linkage analysis in half-sib designs. The variance component method showed slightly more potential than the regression method in QTL mapping.     

Non-parametric interval mapping in half-sib designs: use of midranks to account for ties

In QTL analysis of non-normally distributed phenotypes, non-parametric approaches have been proposed as an alternative to the use of parametric tests on mathematically transformed data. The non-parametric interval mapping test uses random ranking to deal with ties. Another approach is to assign to each tied individual the average of the tied ranks (midranks). This approach is implemented and compared to the random ranking approach in terms of statistical power and accuracy of the QTL position. Non-normal phenotypes such as bacteria counts showing high numbers of zeros are simulated (0-80% zeros). We show that, for low proportions of zeros, the power estimates are similar but, for high proportions of zeros, the midrank approach is superior to the random ranking approach. For example, with a QTL accounting for 8% of the total phenotypic variance, a gain from 8% to 11% of power can be obtained. Furthermore, the accuracy of the estimated QTL location is increased when using midranks. Therefore, if non-parametric interval mapping is chosen, the midrank approach should be preferred. This test might be especially relevant for the analysis of disease resistance phenotypes such as those observed when mapping QTLs for resistance to infectious diseases.     

Linkage information content and efficiency of full-sib and half-sib designs for gene mapping

The accuracy of a genetic map depends on the amount of linkage information contained in the data set used for construction of the map. The amount of linkage information is related to the designs employed for linkage analysis. The purpose of this study was to provide general formulations for various genotyping schemes and family structures in order to evaluate the amount of linkage information in a data set. Linkage information content (LIC) was defined as the frequency of fully informative gametes, which are gametes from doubly heterozygous parents with known linkage phases. Depending on the design, LIC is based on two generations if the parental phases are determined statistically, or three generations if the parental phases are determined genetically. Different schemes were considered in deriving LIC: (1) genotyping of one parent or two parents, and (2) genotyping of two or three generation families. The LIC for a full-sib design was found to be generally greater than for a half-sib design but requires typing a large number of individuals when at least one locus has only two alleles. The efficiency of the full-sib design is reduced significantly if a sex-specific linkage map is sought.     

Selection of sires to reduce sampling variance in the estimates of heritability by half-sib correlation

Summary Standard methods to estimate heritability by half-sib correlation are biased if selection has operated in the parental generation. In this paper a simple method to correct for selection of animals used as sires is described. By selection of both the top and the bottom ranking sires, the sampling variances of the corrected estimates of heritability are substantially reduced. Algebraic expressions to predict the sampling variance of the estimates of heritability using selected sires are derived. Theoretical predictions were checked by Monte-Carlo simulation. The results may have application in the design of experiments to estimate heritabilities.     

Precision of the genotypic correlation estimated from variety trials conducted in incomplete block designs

 Precise assessment of an association among traits of a crop plant is helpful in developing crop-improvement strategies. Two types of association, genotypic correlation and phenotypic correlation, may be used. An estimate of correlation is required along with a measure of precision in terms of standard error. Methods for the evaluation of the standard errors of genotypic and phenotypic correlations are not available in the literature, and when trials are conducted in incomplete blocks an algebraic evaluation of such correlation is cumbersome. Three methods – simulation, jackknife and bootstrap – have been used to evaluate bias and standard errors of genotypic, phenotypic and environmental correlations. We have evaluated their performance with data on grain yield, days-to-heading, and plant height, in barley genotypes in triple lattices. Simulation and jackknife techniques were found to be closer, compared to bootstrap, and can be recommended for assessing the precision of correlation estimates. Received: 9 December 1996 / Accepted: 2 May 1997     

Power of quantitative trait locus mapping for polygenic binary traits using generalized and regression interval mapping in multi-family half-sib designs

A generalized interval mapping (GIM) method to map quantitative trait loci (QTL) for binary polygenic traits in a multi-family half-sib design is developed based on threshold theory and implemented using a Newton-Raphson algorithm. Statistical power and bias of QTL mapping for binary traits by GIM is compared with linear regression interval mapping (RIM) using simulation. Data on 20 paternal half-sib families were simulated with two genetic markers that bracketed an additive QTL. Data simulated and analysed were: (1) data on the underlying normally distributed liability (NDL) scale, (2) binary data created by truncating NDL data based on three thresholds yielding data sets with three different incidences, and (3) NDL data with polygenic and QTL effects reduced by a proportion equal to the ratio of the heritabilities on the binary versus NDL scale (reduced-NDL). Binary data were simulated with and without systematic environmental (herd) effects in an unbalanced design. GIM and RIM gave similar power to detect the QTL and similar estimates of QTL location, effects and variances. Presence of fixed effects caused differences in bias between RIM and GIM, where GIM showed smaller bias which was affected less by incidence. The original NDL data had higher power and lower bias in QTL parameter estimates than binary and reduced-NDL data. RIM for reduced-NDL and binary data gave similar power and estimates of QTL parameters, indicating that the impact of the binary nature of data on QTL analysis is equivalent to its impact on heritability.     

Bias in genetic variance estimates due to spatial autocorrelation

Summary A central problem in the analysis of genetic field trials is the dichotomy of genetic and environmental effects because one cannot be defined without the other. Results from 768,000 simulated family trials in complete randomized block designs demonstrated a serious upward bias in estimates of family variance components from multi-unit plot designs when the phenotypic observations were compatible with a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process. The inflation of family variances and, thus, additive genetic variance and narrow sense individual heritabilities progressed exponentially with an increase in the nearest neighbor correlation () in the AR1 process. Significant differences in inflation rates persisted among various plot configurations. At = 0.2 the inflation of family variances reached 48–73%. Inflation rates were independent of the level of heritability. Modified Papadakis nearest neighbor (NN) adjustment procedures were tested for their ability to remove the bias in family variances. A NN-adjustment based on Mead's coefficient of interplant interaction and one derived from Bartlett's simultaneous autoregressive scheme removed up to 97% of the bias introduced by the phenotypic correlations. NN-adjusted estimates had slightly (5–8%) higher relative errors than did unadjusted estimates.     

Bias of maximum likelihood estimator of intraclass correlation

Summary A bias correction was derived for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the intraclass correlation. The bias consisted of two parts: a correction from MLE to the analysis of variance estimator (ANOVA) and the bias of ANOVA. The total possible bias was always negative and depended upon both the degree of correlation and the design size and balance. The first part of the bias was an exact algebraic expression from MLE to ANOVA, and the corrected estimator by this part was ANOVA. It was also shown that the first correction term was equivalent to Fisher's reciprocal bias correction on hisZ scores. The total possible bias of MLE was large for small and moderate samples. Relative biases were larger for small parametric values and vice versa. To ensure a relative bias less than 10% assuming an intraclass correlation of 0.025, which is not unusual in most of the animal genetic studies, the total number of observations (N) should be not less than 500. From a design point of view, minimum bias occurred atn = 2, the minimum family size possible, underN fixed.     

Informative missingness in genetic association studies: case-parent designs

We consider the effect of informative missingness on association tests that use parental genotypes as controls and that allow for missing parental data. Parental data can be informatively missing when the probability of a parent being available for study is related to that parent's genotype; when this occurs, the distribution of genotypes among observed parents is not representative of the distribution of genotypes among the missing parents. Many previously proposed procedures that allow for missing parental data assume that these distributions are the same. We propose association tests that behave well when parental data are informatively missing, under the assumption that, for a given trio of paternal, maternal, and affected offspring genotypes, the genotypes of the parents and the sex of the missing parents, but not the genotype of the affected offspring, can affect parental missingness. (This same assumption is required for validity of an analysis that ignores incomplete parent-offspring trios.) We use simulations to compare our approach with previously proposed procedures, and we show that if even small amounts of informative missingness are not taken into account, they can have large, deleterious effects on the performance of tests.     

Adaptive two-stage analysis of genetic association in case-control designs

We study a two-stage analysis of genetic association for case-control studies. In the first stage, we compare Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium coefficients between cases and controls and, in the second stage, we apply the Cochran- Armitage trend test. The two analyses are statistically independent when Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium holds in the population, so all the samples are used in both stages. The significance level in the first stage is adaptively determined based on its conditional power. Given the level in the first stage, the level for the second stage analysis is determined with the overall Type I error being asymptotically controlled. For finite sample sizes, a parametric bootstrap method is used to control the overall Type I error rate. This two-stage analysis is often more powerful than the Cochran-Armitage trend test alone for a large association study. The new approach is applied to SNPs from a real study.     

Imputation approaches for estimating diagnostic accuracy for multiple tests from partially verified designs

Interest often focuses on estimating sensitivity and specificity of a group of raters or a set of new diagnostic tests in situations in which gold standard evaluation is expensive or invasive. Various authors have proposed semilatent class modeling approaches for estimating diagnostic accuracy in this situation. This article presents imputation approaches for this problem. I show how imputation provides a simpler way of performing diagnostic accuracy and prevalence estimation than the use of semilatent modeling. Furthermore, the imputation approach is more robust to modeling assumptions and, in general, there is only a moderate efficiency loss relative to a correctly specified semilatent class model. I apply imputation to a study designed to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of digital radiography for gastric cancer. The feasibility and robustness of imputation is illustrated with analysis, asymptotic results, and simulations.     

Family-based versus unrelated case-control designs for genetic associations

The most simple and commonly used approach for genetic associations is the case-control study design of unrelated people. This design is susceptible to population stratification. This problem is obviated in family-based studies, but it is usually difficult to accumulate large enough samples of well-characterized families. We addressed empirically whether the two designs give similar estimates of association in 93 investigations where both unrelated case-control and family-based designs had been employed. Estimated odds ratios differed beyond chance between the two designs in only four instances (4%). The summary relative odds ratio (ROR) (the ratio of odds ratios obtained from unrelated case-control and family-based studies) was close to unity (0.96 [95% confidence interval, 0.91-1.01]). There was no heterogeneity in the ROR across studies (amount of heterogeneity beyond chance I(2) = 0%). Differences on whether results were nominally statistically significant (p < 0.05) or not with the two designs were common (opposite classification rates 14% and 17%); this reflected largely differences in power. Conclusions were largely similar in diverse subgroup analyses. Unrelated case-control and family-based designs give overall similar estimates of association. We cannot rule out rare large biases or common small biases.     

Toggles and oscillators: new genetic circuit designs

Two recent papers report the de novo design of a functioning biological circuit using well-characterized genetic elements.(1,2) Gardner et al. designed and constructed a genetic toggle switch while Elowitz and Leibler built an oscillating genetic circuit. Both circuits were designed with the aid of mathematical models. These papers demonstrate progress towards the unification of theory and experiment in the study of genetic circuits. Comparison of the predicted and observed behavior of the circuits, however, shows that the models explain only some of the circuits' properties. Further study of the observed behaviors not predicted by the model would lead to new insight into the properties of genetic networks. BioEssays 22:507-509, 2000.     

On locating multiple interacting quantitative trait loci in intercross designs

A modified version (mBIC) of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) has been previously proposed for backcross designs to locate multiple interacting quantitative trait loci. In this article, we extend the method to intercross designs. We also propose two modifications of the mBIC. First we investigate a two-stage procedure in the spirit of empirical Bayes methods involving an adaptive (i.e., data-based) choice of the penalty. The purpose of the second modification is to increase the power of detecting epistasis effects at loci where main effects have already been detected. We investigate the proposed methods by computer simulations under a wide range of realistic genetic models, with nonequidistant marker spacings and missing data. In the case of large intermarker distances we use imputations according to Haley and Knott regression to reduce the distance between searched positions to not more than 10 cM. Haley and Knott regression is also used to handle missing data. The simulation study as well as real data analyses demonstrates good properties of the proposed method of QTL detection.     

Semantics of genetic correlation analysis

A theory of genetic-correlation analysis has been put forward on the basis of notions concerning general and special codispersions . The complete set of genetic-correlation indexes is received and their genetic-statistical meaning revealed. The models for genetical component analysis of general and special codispersions of correlative connections are constructed.