HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

Methods and Findings

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

Conclusions

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Optimising the Impact of Expanded HIV Treatment Programmes

Until now, decisions about how to allocate ART have largely been based on maximising the therapeutic benefit of ART for patients. Since the results of the HPTN 052 study showed efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in preventing HIV transmission, there has been increased interest in the benefits of ART not only as treatment, but also in prevention. Resources for expanding ART in the short term may be limited, so the question is how to generate the most prevention benefit from realistic potential increases in the availability of ART. Although not a formal systematic review, here we review different ways in which access to ART could be expanded by prioritising access to particular groups based on clinical or behavioural factors. For each group we consider (i) the clinical and epidemiological benefits, (ii) the potential feasibility, acceptability, and equity, and (iii) the affordability and cost-effectiveness of prioritising ART access for that group. In re-evaluating the allocation of ART in light of the new data about ART preventing transmission, the goal should be to create policies that maximise epidemiological and clinical benefit while still being feasible, affordable, acceptable, and equitable.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Issues in Economic Evaluation

Meyer-Rath and Over assert in another article in the July 2012 PLoS Medicine Collection, “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”, that economic evaluations of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in currently existing programs and in HIV treatment as prevention (TasP) programs should use cost functions that capture cost dependence on a number of factors, such as scale and scope of delivery, health states, ART regimens, health workers'' experience, patients'' time on treatment, and the distribution of delivery across public and private sectors. We argue that for particular evaluation purposes (e.g., to establish the social value of TasP) and from particular perspectives (e.g., national health policy makers) less detailed cost functions may be sufficient. We then extend the discussion of economic evaluation of TasP, describing why ART outcomes and costs assessed in currently existing programs are unlikely to be generalizable to TasP programs for several fundamental reasons. First, to achieve frequent, widespread HIV testing and high uptake of ART immediately following an HIV diagnosis, TasP programs will require components that are not present in current ART programs and whose costs are not included in current estimates. Second, the early initiation of ART under TasP will change not only patients'' disease courses and treatment experiences—which can affect behaviors that determine clinical treatment success, such as ART adherence and retention—but also quality of life and economic outcomes for HIV-infected individuals. Third, the preventive effects of TasP are likely to alter the composition of the HIV-infected population over time, changing its biological and behavioral characteristics and leading to different costs and outcomes for ART.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: The Utility and Limitations of Ecological Observation

Results from several observational studies of HIV-discordant couples and a randomized controlled trial (HIV Prevention Trials Network 052) show that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can greatly reduce heterosexual HIV transmission in stable HIV-discordant couples. However, such data do not prove that ART will reduce HIV incidence at the population level. Observational investigations using ecological measures have been used to support the implementation of HIV treatment for the specific purpose of preventing transmission at the population level. Many of these studies note ecological associations between measures of increased ART uptake and decreased HIV transmission. Given the urgency of implementing HIV prevention measures, ecological studies must de facto be used to inform current strategies. However, the hypothesis that widespread ART can eliminate HIV infection may have raised expectations beyond what we may be able to achieve. Here we review and discuss the construct of the exposure and outcome measures and analysis methods used in ecological studies. By examining the strengths and weaknesses of ecological analyses, we aim to aid understanding of the findings from these studies to inform future policy decisions regarding the use of ART for HIV prevention.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling for Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”—which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention—we present here principles of “best practice” for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.     

Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission of HIV: Cost-Effectiveness of Antiretroviral Regimens and Feeding Options in Rwanda

Background

Rwanda''s National PMTCT program aims to achieve elimination of new HIV infections in children by 2015. In November 2010, Rwanda adopted the WHO 2010 ARV guidelines for PMTCT recommending Option B (HAART) for all HIV-positive pregnant women extended throughout breastfeeding and discontinued (short course-HAART) only for those not eligible for life treatment. The current study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of this policy choice.

Methods

Based on a cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women in Rwanda, we modelled the cost-effectiveness of six regimens: dual ARV prophylaxis with either 12 months breastfeeding or replacement feeding; short course HAART (Sc-HAART) prophylaxis with either 6 months breastfeeding, 12 months breastfeeding, or 18 months breastfeeding; and Sc-HAART prophylaxis with replacement feeding. Direct costs were modelled based on all inputs in each scenario and related unit costs. Effectiveness was evaluated by measuring HIV-free survival at 18 months. Savings correspond to the lifetime costs of HIV treatment and care avoided as a result of all vertical HIV infections averted.

Results

All PMTCT scenarios considered are cost saving compared to “no intervention.” Sc-HAART with 12 months breastfeeding or 6 months breastfeeding dominate all other scenarios. Sc-HAART with 12 months breastfeeding allows for more children to be alive and HIV-uninfected by 18 months than Sc-HAART with 6 months breastfeeding for an incremental cost per child alive and uninfected of 11,882 USD. This conclusion is sensitive to changes in the relative risk of mortality by 18 months for exposed HIV-uninfected children on replacement feeding from birth and those who were breastfed for only 6 months compared to those breastfeeding for 12 months or more.

Conclusion

Our findings support the earlier decision by Rwanda to adopt WHO Option B and could inform alternatives for breastfeeding duration. Local contexts and existing care delivery models should be part of national policy decisions.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Considerations in the Design, Conduct, and Analysis of Cluster Randomized Controlled Trials of Combination HIV Prevention

The rigorous evaluation of the impact of combination HIV prevention packages at the population level will be critical for the future of HIV prevention. In this review, we discuss important considerations for the design and interpretation of cluster randomized controlled trials (C-RCTs) of combination prevention interventions. We focus on three large C-RCTs that will start soon and are designed to test the hypothesis that combination prevention packages, including expanded access to antiretroviral therapy, can substantially reduce HIV incidence. Using a general framework to integrate mathematical modelling analysis into the design, conduct, and analysis of C-RCTs will complement traditional statistical analyses and strengthen the evaluation of the interventions. Importantly, even with combination interventions, it may be challenging to substantially reduce HIV incidence over the 2- to 3-y duration of a C-RCT, unless interventions are scaled up rapidly and key populations are reached. Thus, we propose the innovative use of mathematical modelling to conduct interim analyses, when interim HIV incidence data are not available, to allow the ongoing trials to be modified or adapted to reduce the likelihood of inconclusive outcomes. The preplanned, interactive use of mathematical models during C-RCTs will also provide a valuable opportunity to validate and refine model projections.     

Antiretroviral Therapy for Prevention of Tuberculosis in Adults with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is the strongest risk factor for developing tuberculosis and has fuelled its resurgence, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, there were an estimated 1.1 million incident cases of tuberculosis among the 34 million people living with HIV worldwide. Antiretroviral therapy has substantial potential to prevent HIV-associated tuberculosis. We conducted a systematic review of studies that analysed the impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of tuberculosis in adults with HIV infection.

Methods and Findings

PubMed, Embase, African Index Medicus, LILACS, and clinical trial registries were systematically searched. Randomised controlled trials, prospective cohort studies, and retrospective cohort studies were included if they compared tuberculosis incidence by antiretroviral therapy status in HIV-infected adults for a median of over 6 mo in developing countries. For the meta-analyses there were four categories based on CD4 counts at antiretroviral therapy initiation: (1) less than 200 cells/µl, (2) 200 to 350 cells/µl, (3) greater than 350 cells/µl, and (4) any CD4 count.Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. Antiretroviral therapy is strongly associated with a reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis in all baseline CD4 count categories: (1) less than 200 cells/µl (hazard ratio [HR] 0.16, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.07 to 0.36), (2) 200 to 350 cells/µl (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.60), (3) greater than 350 cells/µl (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.63), and (4) any CD4 count (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.44). There was no evidence of hazard ratio modification with respect to baseline CD4 count category (p = 0.20).

Conclusions

Antiretroviral therapy is strongly associated with a reduction in the incidence of tuberculosis across all CD4 count strata. Earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy may be a key component of global and national strategies to control the HIV-associated tuberculosis syndemic.

Review Registration

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42011001209 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Models, Data, and Questions��Towards Evidence-Based Decision-Making

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and mathematical modelling will be central in framing key decisions in the optimal use of ART. PLoS Medicine, with the HIV Modelling Consortium, has commissioned a set of articles that examine different aspects of HIV treatment as prevention with a forward-looking research agenda. Interlocking themes across these articles are discussed in this introduction. We hope that this article, and others in the collection, will provide a foundation upon which greater collaborations between disciplines will be formed, and will afford deeper insights into the key factors involved, to help strengthen the support for evidence-based decision-making in HIV prevention.     

Retained in HIV Care But Not on Antiretroviral Treatment: A Qualitative Patient-Provider Dyadic Study

Background

Patients retained in HIV care but not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) represent an important part of the HIV care cascade in the United States. Even in an era of more tolerable and efficacious ART, decision making in regards to ART offer and uptake remains complex and calls for exploration of both patient and provider perspectives. We sought to understand reasons for lack of ART usage in patients meeting the Health Resources Services Administration definition of retention as well as what motivated HIV primary care appointment attendance in the absence of ART.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a qualitative study consisting of 70 in-depth interviews with ART-naïve and ART-experienced patients off ART and their primary care providers in two urban safety-net HIV clinics in San Francisco and New York. Twenty patients and their providers were interviewed separately at baseline, and 15 dyads were interviewed again after at least 3 mo and another clinic visit in order to understand any ART use in the interim. We applied dyadic analysis to our data. Nearly all patients were willing to consider ART, and 40% of the sample went on ART, citing education on newer antiretroviral drugs, acceptance of HIV diagnosis, social support, and increased confidence in their ability to adhere as facilitators. However, the strength of the provider recommendation of ART played an important role. Many patients had internalized messages from providers that their health was too good to warrant ART. In addition, providers, while demonstrating patient-centered care through sensitivity to patients experiencing psychosocial instability, frequently muted the offer of ART, at times unintentionally. In the absence of ART, lab monitoring, provider relationships, access to social services, opiate pain medications, and acute symptoms motivated care. The main limitations of this study were that treatment as prevention was not explored in depth and that participants were recruited from academic HIV clinics in the US, making the findings most generalizable to this setting.

Conclusions

Provider communication with regard to ART is a key focus for further exploration and intervention in order to increase ART uptake for those retained in HIV care.     

No Treatment versus 24 or 60 Weeks of Antiretroviral Treatment during Primary HIV Infection: The Randomized Primo-SHM Trial

Background

The objective of this study was to assess the benefit of temporary combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during primary HIV infection (PHI).

Methods and Findings

Adult patients with laboratory evidence of PHI were recruited in 13 HIV treatment centers in the Netherlands and randomly assigned to receive no treatment or 24 or 60 wk of cART (allocation in a 1∶1∶1 ratio); if therapy was clinically indicated, participants were randomized over the two treatment arms (allocation in a 1∶1 ratio). Primary end points were (1) viral set point, defined as the plasma viral load 36 wk after randomization in the no treatment arm and 36 wk after treatment interruption in the treatment arms, and (2) the total time that patients were off therapy, defined as the time between randomization and start of cART in the no treatment arm, and the time between treatment interruption and restart of cART in the treatment arms. cART was (re)started in case of confirmed CD4 cell count <350 cells/mm³ or symptomatic HIV disease. In total, 173 participants were randomized. The modified intention-to-treat analysis comprised 168 patients: 115 were randomized over the three study arms, and 53 randomized over the two treatment arms. Of the 115 patients randomized over the three study arms, mean viral set point was 4.8 (standard deviation 0.6) log₁₀ copies/ml in the no treatment arm, and 4.0 (1.0) and 4.3 (0.9) log₁₀ copies/ml in the 24- and 60-wk treatment arms (between groups: p<0.001). The median total time off therapy in the no treatment arm was 0.7 (95% CI 0.0–1.8) y compared to 3.0 (1.9–4.2) and 1.8 (0.5–3.0) y in the 24- and 60-wk treatment arms (log rank test, p<0.001). In the adjusted Cox analysis, both 24 wk (hazard ratio 0.42 [95% CI 0.25–0.73]) and 60 wk of early treatment (hazard ratio 0.55 [0.32–0.95]) were associated with time to (re)start of cART.

Conclusions

In this trial, temporary cART during PHI was found to transiently lower the viral set point and defer the restart of cART during chronic HIV infection.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59497461 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Mathematical Analysis of a Two Strain HIV/AIDS Model with Antiretroviral Treatment

A two strain HIV/AIDS model with treatment which allows AIDS patients with sensitive HIV-strain to undergo amelioration is presented as a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations. The disease-free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated epidemic threshold known as the basic reproduction number for the model is less than unity. The centre manifold theory is used to show that the sensitive HIV-strain only and resistant HIV-strain only endemic equilibria are locally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction numbers are greater than unity. Qualitative analysis of the model including positivity, boundedness and persistence of solutions are presented. The model is numerically analysed to assess the effects of treatment with amelioration on the dynamics of a two strain HIV/AIDS model. Numerical simulations of the model show that the two strains co-exist whenever the reproduction numbers exceed unity. Further, treatment with amelioration may result in an increase in the total number of infective individuals (asymptomatic) but results in a decrease in the number of AIDS patients. Further, analysis of the reproduction numbers show that antiretroviral resistance increases with increase in antiretroviral use.     

Ten Year Trends in Community HIV Viral Load in Barbados: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

Background

Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit.

Methods

The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL.

Results

Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease.     

Quality of Life Outcomes of Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV/AIDS Patients in Vietnam

Objective

This study assessed health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and its related factors in HIV/AIDS patients taking antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Vietnam.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 1016 patients (36.2% women, mean age = 35.4) in three epicenters of Vietnam, including Hanoi, Hai Phong, and Ho Chi Minh City. HRQOL was assessed using the Vietnamese version of the WHOQOL-HIV BREF. Factor analysis classified measure items into six HRQOL dimensions, namely Physical, Morbidity, Social, Spirituality, Performance, and Environment. Tobit censored regression models were applied to determine associations of patient’s characteristics and HRQOL domain scores.

Results

Internal consistency reliability of the six domains ranged from 0.69 to 0.89. The WHOQOL-HIV BREF had a good discriminative validity with patient’s disease stages, CD4 cell counts, and duration of ART. In a band score of (4, 20), six domains were moderate; “Environment” had the highest score (13.8±2.8), and “Social” had the lowest score (11.2±3.3). Worse HRQOL were observed in patients at provincial and district clinics. Those patients who were male, had higher educational attainment, and are employed, reported better HRQOL. In reduced regression models, poorer HRQOL was found in patients who had advanced HIV infection and had CD4 cell count <200 cells/mL. Patients reported significantly poorer Physical and Social in the 1^st year ART, but moderately better Performance, Morbidity, Spirituality, and Environment from the 2^nd year ART, compared to those not-yet-on ART.

Conclusion

Strengthening the quality of ART services at the provincial and district levels, gender-specific impact mitigation, and early treatment supports are recommended for further expansion of ART services in Vietnam. Regular assessments of HRQOL may provide important indicators for monitoring and evaluating HIV/AIDS services.     

43 例HIV/AIDS 患者抗病毒治疗情况分析

目的:研究来第四军医大学唐都医院传染科就诊的人类免疫缺陷病毒/艾滋病(Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immuno deficiency syndrome,HIV/AIDS)患者感染状况及抗病毒治疗效果。方法:采用前瞻性随访研究的方法,收集来我院就诊的HIV/AIDS患者的基本信息,并对其实验室检查结果、治疗方案及后续随访结果进行分析。结果:随访观察的43例HIV/AIDS患者治疗前平均基线CD4+T淋巴细胞计数为(330.74±176.35)cells/μL,CD8+T淋巴细胞计数为(1177.80±321.49)cells/μL,CD4+,CD8+T淋巴细胞比值为0.30±0.19;治疗一年后平均CD4+T淋巴细胞计数为(482.74±217.77)cells/μL,CD8+T淋巴细胞计数为(861.53±282.85)cells/μL,CD4+,CD8+T淋巴细胞比值为0.59±0.28。所有患者治疗一年后血浆HIV-RNA载量均达到检测限以下(500copies/m L)。结论:规范的抗病毒治疗对于改善HIV/AIDS患者预后至关重要;基线CD4+T淋巴细胞计数越低,抗病毒治疗效果越差。     

Outcomes of Nigeria's HIV/AIDS Treatment Program for Patients Initiated on Antiretroviral Treatment between 2004-2012

BackgroundThe Nigerian Antiretroviral therapy (ART) program started in 2004 and now ranks among the largest in Africa. However, nationally representative data on outcomes have not been reported.MethodsWe evaluated retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adults aged ≥15 years who initiated ART during 2004 to 2012. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records at 35 sites selected using probability-proportional-to-size (PPS) sampling. Analyses were weighted and controlled for the complex survey design. The main outcome measures were mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and retention (the proportion alive and on ART). Potential predictors of attrition were assessed using competing risk regression models.ResultsAt ART initiation, 66.4 percent (%) were females, median age was 33 years, median weight 56 kg, median CD4 count 161 cells/mm³, and 47.1% had stage III/IV disease. The percentage of patients retained at 12, 24, 36 and 48 months was 81.2%, 74.4%, 67.2%, and 61.7%, respectively. Over 10,088 person-years of ART, mortality, LTFU, and overall attrition (mortality, LTFU, and treatment stop) rates were 1.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.7–1.8), 12.3 (95%CI: 8.9–17.0), and 13.9 (95% CI: 10.4–18.5) per 100 person-years (py) respectively. Highest attrition rates of 55.4/100py were witnessed in the first 3 months on ART. Predictors of LTFU included: lower-than-secondary level education (reference: Tertiary), care in North-East and South-South regions (reference: North-Central), presence of moderate/severe anemia, symptomatic functional status, and baseline weight <45kg. Predictor of mortality was WHO stage higher than stage I. Male sex, severe anemia, and care in a small clinic were associated with both mortality and LTFU.ConclusionModerate/Advanced HIV disease was predictive of attrition; earlier ART initiation could improve program outcomes. Retention interventions targeting men and those with lower levels of education are needed. Further research to understand geographic and clinic size variations with outcome is warranted.