Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of expanding harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy in a mixed HIV epidemic: a modeling analysis for Ukraine

Background

Injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual virus transmission both contribute to the growing mixed HIV epidemics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Ukraine—chosen in this study as a representative country—IDU-related risk behaviors cause half of new infections, but few injection drug users (IDUs) receive methadone substitution therapy. Only 10% of eligible individuals receive antiretroviral therapy (ART). The appropriate resource allocation between these programs has not been studied. We estimated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of strategies for expanding methadone substitution therapy programs and ART in mixed HIV epidemics, using Ukraine as a case study.

Methods and Findings

We developed a dynamic compartmental model of the HIV epidemic in a population of non-IDUs, IDUs using opiates, and IDUs on methadone substitution therapy, stratified by HIV status, and populated it with data from the Ukraine. We considered interventions expanding methadone substitution therapy, increasing access to ART, or both. We measured health care costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), HIV prevalence, infections averted, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Without incremental interventions, HIV prevalence reached 67.2% (IDUs) and 0.88% (non-IDUs) after 20 years. Offering methadone substitution therapy to 25% of IDUs reduced prevalence most effectively (to 53.1% IDUs, 0.80% non-IDUs), and was most cost-effective, averting 4,700 infections and adding 76,000 QALYs compared with no intervention at US$530/QALY gained. Expanding both ART (80% coverage of those eligible for ART according to WHO criteria) and methadone substitution therapy (25% coverage) was the next most cost-effective strategy, adding 105,000 QALYs at US$1,120/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy and averting 8,300 infections versus no intervention. Expanding only ART (80% coverage) added 38,000 QALYs at US$2,240/QALY gained versus the methadone substitution therapy-only strategy, and averted 4,080 infections versus no intervention. Offering ART to 80% of non-IDUs eligible for treatment by WHO criteria, but only 10% of IDUs, averted only 1,800 infections versus no intervention and was not cost effective.

Conclusions

Methadone substitution therapy is a highly cost-effective option for the growing mixed HIV epidemic in Ukraine. A strategy that expands both methadone substitution therapy and ART to high levels is the most effective intervention, and is very cost effective by WHO criteria. When expanding ART, access to methadone substitution therapy provides additional benefit in infections averted. Our findings are potentially relevant to other settings with mixed HIV epidemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

Methods

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15–49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011–2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

Results

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm³ prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9–194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

Conclusion

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.     

Linkage to HIV care and antiretroviral therapy in Cape Town, South Africa

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been scaled-up rapidly in Africa. Programme reports typically focus on loss to follow-up and mortality among patients receiving ART. However, little is known about linkage and retention in care of individuals prior to starting ART.

Methodology

Data on adult residents from a periurban community in Cape Town were collected at a primary care clinic and hospital. HIV testing registers, CD4 count results provided by the National Health Laboratory System and ART registers were linked. A random sample (n = 885) was drawn from adults testing HIV positive through antenatal care, sexual transmitted disease and voluntary testing and counseling services between January 2004 and March 2009. All adults (n = 103) testing HIV positive through TB services during the same time period were also included in the study. Linkage to HIV care was defined as attending for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Linkage to ART care was defined as initiating ART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis in individuals with a CD4 count ≤200 cells/µl taken within 6 months of HIV diagnosis.

Findings

Only 62.6% of individuals attended for a CD4 count measurement within 6 months of testing HIV positive. Individuals testing through sexually transmitted infection services had the best (84.1%) and individuals testing on their own initiative (53.5%) the worst linkage to HIV care. One third of individuals with timely CD4 counts were eligible for ART and 66.7% of those were successfully linked to ART care. Linkage to ART care was highest among antenatal care clients. Among individuals not yet eligible for ART only 46.3% had a repeat CD4 count. Linkage to HIV care improved in patients tested in more recent calendar period.

Conclusion

Linkage to HIV and ART care was low in this poor peri-urban community despite free services available within close proximity. More efforts are needed to link VCT scale-up to subsequent care.     

Hidden Drug Resistant HIV to Emerge in the Era of Universal Treatment Access in Southeast Asia

Background

Universal access to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection is becoming more of a reality in most low and middle income countries in Asia. However, second-line therapies are relatively scarce.

Methods and Findings

We developed a mathematical model of an HIV epidemic in a Southeast Asian setting and used it to forecast the impact of treatment plans, without second-line options, on the potential degree of acquisition and transmission of drug resistant HIV strains. We show that after 10 years of universal treatment access, up to 20% of treatment-naïve individuals with HIV may have drug-resistant strains but it depends on the relative fitness of viral strains.

Conclusions

If viral load testing of people on ART is carried out on a yearly basis and virological failure leads to effective second-line therapy, then transmitted drug resistance could be reduced by 80%. Greater efforts are required for minimizing first-line failure, to detect virological failure earlier, and to procure access to second-line therapies.     

The macroeconomic consequences of renouncing to universal access to antiretroviral treatment for HIV in Africa: a micro-simulation model

Aim

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries.

Methods

We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy.

Results

Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers'' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm³ CD4 cell counts.

Conclusion

Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to “legitimate” short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.     

Adverse events among HIV/MDR-TB co-infected patients receiving antiretroviral and second line anti-TB treatment in Mumbai, India

Background

Significant adverse events (AE) have been reported in patients receiving medications for multidrug- and extensively-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB & XDR-TB). However, there is little prospective data on AE in MDR- or XDR-TB/HIV co-infected patients on antituberculosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) in programmatic settings.

Methods

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is supporting a community-based treatment program for drug-resistant tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients in a slum setting in Mumbai, India since 2007. Patients are being treated for both diseases and the management of AE is done on an outpatient basis whenever possible. Prospective data were analysed to determine the occurrence and nature of AE.

Results

Between May 2007 and September 2011, 67 HIV/MDR-TB co-infected patients were being treated with anti-TB treatment and ART; 43.3% were female, median age was 35.5 years (Interquartile Range: 30.5–42) and the median duration of anti-TB treatment was 10 months (range 0.5–30). Overall, AE were common in this cohort: 71%, 63% and 40% of patients experienced one or more mild, moderate or severe AE, respectively. However, they were rarely life-threatening or debilitating. AE occurring most frequently included gastrointestinal symptoms (45% of patients), peripheral neuropathy (38%), hypothyroidism (32%), psychiatric symptoms (29%) and hypokalaemia (23%). Eleven patients were hospitalized for AE and one or more suspect drugs had to be permanently discontinued in 27 (40%). No AE led to indefinite suspension of an entire MDR-TB or ART regimen.

Conclusions

AE occurred frequently in this Mumbai HIV/MDR-TB cohort but not more frequently than in non-HIV patients on similar anti-TB treatment. Most AE can be successfully managed on an outpatient basis through a community-based treatment program, even in a resource-limited setting. Concerns about severe AE in the management of co-infected patients are justified, however, they should not cause delays in the urgently needed rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and second-line anti-TB treatment.     

Population-level reduction in adult mortality after extension of free anti-retroviral therapy provision into rural areas in northern Malawi

Background

Four studies from sub-Saharan Africa have found a substantial population-level effect of ART provision on adult mortality. It is important to see if the impact changes with time since the start of treatment scale-up, and as treatment moves to smaller clinics.

Methods and Findings

During 2002-4 a demographic surveillance site (DSS) was established in Karonga district, northern Malawi. Information on births and deaths is collected monthly, with verbal autopsies conducted for all deaths; migrations are updated annually. We analysed mortality trends by comparing three time periods: pre-ART roll-out in the district (August 2002–June 2005), ART period 1 (July 2005–September 2006) when ART was available only in a town 70 km away, and ART period 2 (October 2006–September 2008), when ART was available at a clinic within the DSS area. HIV prevalence and ART uptake were estimated from a sero-survey conducted in 2007/2008. The all-cause mortality rate among 15–59 year olds was 10.2 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period (288 deaths/28285 person-years). It fell by 16% in ART period 1 and by 32% in ART period 2 (95% CI 18%–43%), compared with the pre-ART period. The AIDS mortality rate fell from 6.4 to 4.6 to 2.7 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period, period 1 and period 2 respectively (rate ratio for period 2 = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33–0.56). There was little change in non-AIDS mortality. Treatment coverage among individuals eligible to start ART was around 70% in 2008.

Conclusions

ART can have a dramatic effect on mortality in a resource-constrained setting in Africa, at least in the early years of treatment provision. Our findings support the decentralised delivery of ART from peripheral health centres with unsophisticated facilities. Continued funding to maintain and further scale-up treatment provision will bring large benefits in terms of saving lives.     

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and its impact on HIV-1 transmission in South Africa

Background

Mathematical modelers have given little attention to the question of how pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may impact on a generalized national HIV epidemic and its cost-effectiveness, in the context of control strategies such as condom use promotion and expanding ART programs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We use an age- and gender-structured model of the generalized HIV epidemic in South Africa to investigate the potential impact of PrEP in averting new infections. The model utilizes age-structured mortality, fertility, partnership and condom use data to model the spread of HIV and the shift of peak prevalence to older age groups. The model shows that universal PrEP coverage would have to be impractically high to have a significant effect on incidence reduction while ART coverage expands. PrEP targeted to 15–35-year-old women would avert 10%–25% (resp. 13%–28%) of infections in this group and 5%–12% (resp. 7%–16%) of all infections in the period 2014–2025 if baseline incidence is 0.5% per year at 2025 (resp. 0.8% per year at 2025). The cost would be $12,500–$20,000 per infection averted, depending on the level of ART coverage and baseline incidence. An optimistic scenario of 30%–60% PrEP coverage, efficacy of at least 90%, no behavior change among PrEP users and ART coverage less than three times its 2010 levels is required to achieve this result. Targeting PrEP to 25–35-year-old women (at highest risk of infection) improves impact and cost-effectiveness marginally. Relatively low levels of condom substitution (e.g., 30%) do not nullify the efficacy of PrEP, but reduces cost-effectiveness by 35%–40%.

Conclusions/Significance

PrEP can avert as many as 30% of new infections in targeted age groups of women at highest risk of infection. The cost-effectiveness of PrEP relative to ART decreases rapidly as ART coverage increases beyond three times its coverage in 2010, after which the ART program would provide coverage to more than 65% of HIV₊ individuals. To have a high relative cost-effective impact on reducing infections in generalized epidemics, PrEP must utilize a window of opportunity until ART has been scaled up beyond this level.     

National prevalence and trends of HIV transmitted drug resistance in Mexico

Background

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains an important concern for the management of HIV infection, especially in countries that have recently scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) access.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We designed a study to assess HIV diversity and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence and trends in Mexico. 1655 ART-naïve patients from 12 Mexican states were enrolled from 2005 to 2010. TDR was assessed from plasma HIV pol sequences using Stanford scores and the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. TDR prevalence fluctuations over back-projected dates of infection were tested. HIV subtype B was highly prevalent in Mexico (99.9%). TDR prevalence (Stanford score>15) in the country for the study period was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.2∶8.8) and 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7∶8.2) based on the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. NRTI TDR was the highest (4.2%), followed by NNRTI (2.5%) and PI (1.7%) TDR. Increasing trends for NNRTI (p = 0.0456) and PI (p = 0.0061) major TDR mutations were observed at the national level. Clustering of viruses containing minor TDR mutations was observed with some apparent transmission pairs and geographical effects.

Conclusions

TDR prevalence in Mexico remains at the intermediate level and is slightly lower than that observed in industrialized countries. Whether regional variations in TDR trends are associated with differences in antiretroviral drug usage/ART efficacy or with local features of viral evolution remains to be further addressed.     

Performance of risk-based criteria for targeting acute HIV screening in San Francisco

Background

Federal guidelines now recommend supplemental HIV RNA testing for persons at high risk for acute HIV infection. However, many rapid HIV testing sites do not include HIV RNA or p24 antigen testing due to concerns about cost, the need for results follow-up, and the impact of expanded venipuncture on clinic flow. We developed criteria to identify patients in a municipal STD clinic in San Francisco who are asymptomatic but may still be likely to have acute infection.

Methods

Data were from patients tested with serial HIV antibody and HIV RNA tests to identify acute HIV infection. BED-CEIA results were used to classify non-acute cases as recent or longstanding. Demographics and self-reported risk behaviors were collected at time of testing. Multivariate models were developed and preliminarily evaluated using predictors associated with recent infection in bivariate analyses as a proxy for acute HIV infection. Multivariate models demonstrating ≥70% sensitivity for recent infection while testing ≤60% of patients in this development dataset were then validated by determining their performance in identifying acute infections.

Results

From 2004–2007, 137 of 12,622 testers had recent and 36 had acute infections. A model limiting acute HIV screening to MSM plus any one of a series of other predictors resulted in a sensitivity of 83.3% and only 47.6% of patients requiring testing. A single-factor model testing only patients reporting any receptive anal intercourse resulted in 88.9% sensitivity with only 55.2% of patients requiring testing.

Conclusions

In similar high risk HIV testing sites, acute screening using “supplemental” HIV p24 antigen or RNA tests can be rationally targeted to testers who report particular HIV risk behaviors. By improving the efficiency of acute HIV testing, such criteria could facilitate expanded acute case identification.     

High burden of prevalent and recently acquired HIV among female sex workers and female HIV voluntary testing center clients in Kigali, Rwanda

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and risk factors in population-based samples of female sex workers (FSW) and female voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) clients in Rwanda.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 800 FSW and 1,250 female VCT clients in Rwanda, which included interviewing and testing for HIV-1/2, HSV-2 and pregnancy, and BED-CEIA and Avidity Index (AI) to identify recent infections among HIV-infected women.

Results

Prevalence of HIV-1, HSV-2, and pregnancy were 24% (95% CI: 21.0–27.0), 59.8% (56.4–63.2), and 7.6% (5.8–9.5) among FSW, and 12.8% (10.9–14.6), 43.2% (40.4–46.0), and 11.4% (9.7–13.3) among VCT clients, respectively. Thirty-five percent of FSW and 25% of VCT clients had never been HIV tested. Per national guidelines, 33% of newly HIV-diagnosed FSW and 36% of VCT clients were already eligible for ART based on CD4<350 cells/µl. Condom use at last sex was higher among FSW (74%) than VCT clients (12%). In age and district of residence-adjusted models, HIV-1 seropositivity was associated with HSV-2 co-infection; recent treatment for sexually transmitted infection (STI); genital symptoms; forced sex; imprisonment; widowhood; and alcohol consumption. Eleven percent of FSW and 12% of VCT clients had recently acquired HIV-1 per BED-CEIA and AI. HSV-2 infection and recent STI treatment were associated with recent HIV infection in both groups, and being married and vaginal cleansing were associated with recent infection before last sex among VCT clients.

Conclusions

This population-based survey reveals a high HIV prevalence and incidence among FSW and female VCT clients in Kigali, the scale of which is masked by the low general-population HIV prevalence in Rwanda. HIV/STI and family planning services should be strengthened.     

Voluntary medical male circumcision: modeling the impact and cost of expanding male circumcision for HIV prevention in eastern and southern Africa

Background

There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data.

Methods and Findings

We use the Decision Makers'' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization''s considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion.

Conclusions

This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region''s HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Integrating prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programs to improve uptake: a systematic review

Background

We performed a systematic review to assess the effect of integrated perinatal prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV interventions compared to non- or partially integrated services on the uptake in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We searched for experimental, quasi-experimental and controlled observational studies in any language from 21 databases and grey literature sources.

Results

Out of 28 654 citations retrieved, five studies met our inclusion criteria. A cluster randomized controlled trial reported higher probability of nevirapine uptake at the labor wards implementing HIV testing and structured nevirapine adherence assessment (RRR 1.37, bootstrapped 95% CI, 1.04–1.77). A stepped wedge design study showed marked improvement in antiretroviral therapy (ART) enrolment (44.4% versus 25.3%, p<0.001) and initiation (32.9% versus 14.4%, p<0.001) in integrated care, but the median gestational age of ART initiation (27.1 versus 27.7 weeks, p = 0.4), ART duration (10.8 versus 10.0 weeks, p = 0.3) or 90 days ART retention (87.8% versus 91.3%, p = 0.3) did not differ significantly. A cohort study reported no significant difference either in the ART coverage (55% versus 48% versus 47%, p = 0.29) or eight weeks of ART duration before the delivery (50% versus 42% versus 52%; p = 0.96) between integrated, proximal and distal partially integrated care. Two before and after studies assessed the impact of integration on HIV testing uptake in antenatal care. The first study reported that significantly more women received information on PMTCT (92% versus 77%, p<0.001), were tested (76% versus 62%, p<0.001) and learned their HIV status (66% versus 55%, p<0.001) after integration. The second study also reported significant increase in HIV testing uptake after integration (98.8% versus 52.6%, p<0.001).

Conclusion

Limited, non-generalizable evidence supports the effectiveness of integrated PMTCT programs. More research measuring coverage and other relevant outcomes is urgently needed to inform the design of services delivering PMTCT programs.     

Antiretroviral treatment for HIV in rural Uganda: two-year treatment outcomes of a prospective health centre/community-based and hospital-based cohort

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, a shortage of trained health professionals and limited geographical access to health facilities present major barriers to the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We tested the utility of a health centre (HC)/community-based approach in the provision of ART to persons living with HIV in a rural area in western Uganda.

Methods

The HIV treatment outcomes of the HC/community-based ART program were evaluated and compared with those of an ART program at a best-practice regional hospital. The HC/community-based cohort comprised 185 treatment-naïve patients enrolled in 2006. The hospital cohort comprised of 200 patients enrolled in the same time period. The HC/community-based program involved weekly home visits to patients by community volunteers who were trained to deliver antiretroviral drugs to monitor and support adherence to treatment, and to identify and report adverse reactions and other clinical symptoms. Treatment supporters in the homes also had the responsibility to remind patients to take their drugs regularly. ART treatment outcomes were measured by HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) after two years of treatment. Adherence was determined through weekly pill counts.

Results

Successful ART treatment outcomes in the HC/community-based cohort were equivalent to those in the hospital-based cohort after two years of treatment in on-treatment analysis (VL≤400 copies/mL, 93.0% vs. 87.3%, p = 0.12), and in intention-to-treat analysis (VL≤400 copies/mL, 64.9% and 62.0%, p = 0.560). In multivariate analysis patients in the HC/community-based cohort were more likely to have virologic suppression compared to hospital-based patients (adjusted OR = 2.47, 95% CI 1.01–6.04).

Conclusion

Acceptable rates of virologic suppression were achieved using existing rural clinic and community resources in a HC/community-based ART program run by clinical officers and supported by lay volunteers and treatment supporters. The results were equivalent to those of a hospital-based ART program run primarily by doctors.     

Ten years of surveillance for invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae during the era of antiretroviral scale-up and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in Malawi

Objective

To document trends in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in a central hospital in Malawi during the period of national scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis.

Methods

Between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2009 almost 100,000 blood cultures and 40,000 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) cultures were obtained from adults and children admitted to the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi with suspected severe bacterial infection.

Results

4,445 pneumococcal isolates were obtained over the 10 year period. 1,837 were from children: 885 (19.9%) from blood and 952 (21.4%) from CSF. 2,608 were from adults: 1,813 (40.8%) from blood and 795 (17.9%) from CSF. At the start of the surveillance period cotrimoxazole resistance was 73.8% and at the end was 92.6%. Multidrug resistance (MDR) was present in almost one third of isolates and was constant over time. Free ART was introduced in Malawi in 2004. From 2005 onwards there was a decline in invasive pneumococcal infections with a negative correlation between ART scale-up and the decline in IPD (Pearson''s correlation r = −0.91; p<0.001).

Conclusion

During 2004–2009, national ART scale-up in Malawi was associated with a downward trend in IPD at QECH. The introduction of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in HIV-infected groups has not coincided with a further increase in pneumococcal cotrimoxazole or multidrug resistance. These data highlight the importance of surveillance for high disease burden infections such as IPD in the region, which will be vital for monitoring pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction into national immunisation programmes.     

Comparison of methods to correct survival estimates and survival regression analysis on a large HIV African cohort

Objective

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses.

Methods

We compared uncorrected survival estimates derived from routine program data with estimates obtained by applying six correction methods that use updated outcome data by a field survey targeting LFU patients in a rural HIV program in Malawi. These methods were based on double-sampling and differed according to the weights given to survival estimates in LFU and non-LFU subpopulations. We then proposed a correction of the survival regression analysis.

Results

Among 6,727 HIV-infected adults receiving ART, 9% were LFU after one year. The uncorrected survival estimates from routine data were 91% in women and 84% in men. According to increasing sophistication of the correction methods, the corrected survival estimates ranged from 89% to 85% in women and 82% to 77% in men. The estimates derived from uncorrected regression analyses were highly biased for initial tuberculosis mortality ratios (RR; 95% CI: 1.07; 0.76–1.50 vs. 2.06 to 2.28 with different correction weights), Kaposi sarcoma diagnosis (2.11; 1.61–2.76 vs. 2.64 to 3.9), and year of ART initiation (1.40; 1.17–1.66 vs. 1.29 to 1.34).

Conclusions

In HIV programs with high LFU rates, the use of correction methods based on non-exhaustive double-sampling data are necessary to minimise the bias in survival estimates and survival regressions.     

A mathematical model of comprehensive test-and-treat services and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in the United States

Background

Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection and suppression of viral load are potentially powerful interventions for reducing HIV incidence. A test-and-treat strategy may have long-term effects on the epidemic among urban men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and may achieve the 5-year goals of the 2010 National AIDS Strategy that include: 1) lowering to 25% the annual number of new infections, 2) reducing by 30% the HIV transmission rate, 3) increasing to 90% the proportion of persons living with HIV infection who know their HIV status, 4) increasing to 85% the proportion of newly diagnosed patients linked to clinical care, and 5) increasing by 20% the proportion of HIV-infected MSM with an undetectable HIV RNA viral load.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a dynamic compartmental model among MSM in an urban population (based on New York City) that projects new HIV infections over time. We compared the cumulative number of HIV infections in 20 years, assuming current annual testing rate and treatment practices, with new infections after improvements in the annual HIV testing rate, notification of test results, linkage to care, initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and viral load suppression. We also assessed whether five of the national HIV prevention goals could be met by the year 2015. Over a 20-year period, improvements in test-and-treat practice decreased the cumulative number of new infections by a predicted 39.3% to 69.1% in the urban population based on New York City. Institution of intermediate improvements in services would be predicted to meet at least four of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy by the 2015 target.

Conclusions

Improving the five components of a test-and-treat strategy could substantially reduce HIV incidence among urban MSM, and meet most of the five goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.     

Presentation and outcome of tuberculous meningitis in a high HIV prevalence setting

Background

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a common, devastating cause of meningitis in HIV-infected persons. Due to international rollout programs, access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is increasing globally. Starting patients with HIV-associated tuberculous meningitis (TBM) on ART during tuberculosis (TB) treatment may increase survival in these patients. We undertook this study to describe causes of meningitis at a secondary-level hospital in a high HIV/TB co-infection setting and to determine predictors of mortality in patients with TBM.

Methods

A retrospective review of cerebrospinal fluid findings and clinical records over a six-month period (March 2009–August 2009). Definite, probable and possible TBM were diagnosed according to published case definitions.

Results

TBM was diagnosed in 120/211 patients (57%) with meningitis. In 106 HIV-infected patients with TBM, six-month all-cause mortality was lower in those who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during TB treatment; hazard ratio = 0.30 (95% CI = 0.08–0.82). Factors associated with inpatient mortality in HIV-infected patients were 1) low CD4⁺ count at presentation; adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.03–1.96) per 50 cells/µL drop in CD4⁺ count and, 2) higher British Medical Research Council TBM disease grade (2 or 3 versus 1); AOR = 4.8 (95% CI = 1.45–15.87).

Interpretation

Starting ART prior to or during TB treatment may be associated with lower mortality in patients with HIV-associated TBM. Advanced HIV and worse stage of TBM disease predict in-hospital mortality in patients presenting with TBM.     

Outcome assessment of a dedicated HIV positive health care worker clinic at a central hospital in Malawi: a retrospective observational study

Background

Malawi has one of the world''s lowest densities of Health Care Workers (HCW) per capita. This study evaluates outcomes of a dedicated HCW HIV clinic in Malawi, created at Zomba Central Hospital in January 2007.

Methods and Findings

Retrospective cohort data was analyzed comparing HCW clinic patient baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes at 18 months after inception, against those attending the general HIV clinic. In-depth interviews and focus group discussions were conducted to explore perceptions of patients and caregivers regarding program value, level of awareness and barriers for uptake amongst HCW. 306 patients were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the HCW HIV clinic, 6784 in the general clinic. Significantly (p<0.01) more HCW clients were initiated on ART on the basis of CD4 as opposed to WHO Stage 3/4 (36% vs.23%). Significantly fewer HCW clients defaulted (6% vs.17%), and died (4% vs.12%). The dedicated HCW HIV clinic was perceived as important and convenient in terms of reduced waiting times, and prompt and high quality care. Improved confidentiality was an appreciated quality of the HCW clinic however barriers included fear of being recognized.

Conclusions/Significance

Outcomes at the HCW clinic appear better compared to the general HIV clinic. The strategy of dedicated clinics to care for health providers is a means of HIV impact mitigation within human resource constrained health systems in high prevalence settings.