A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Adjusting mortality for loss to follow-up: analysis of five ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Methods and Findings

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d''Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9–6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6–12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9–11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0–19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

Conclusions

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.     

Diarrhea, pneumonia, and infectious disease mortality in children aged 5 to 14 years in India

Background

Little is known about the causes of death in children in India after age five years. The objective of this study is to provide the first ever direct national and sub-national estimates of infectious disease mortality in Indian children aged 5 to 14 years.

Methods

A verbal autopsy based assessment of 3 855 deaths is children aged 5 to 14 years from a nationally representative survey of deaths occurring in 2001–03 in 1·1 million homes in India.

Results

Infectious diseases accounted for 58% of all deaths among children aged 5 to 14 years. About 18% of deaths were due to diarrheal diseases, 10% due to pneumonia, 8% due to central nervous system infections, 4% due to measles, and 12% due to other infectious diseases. Nationally, in 2005 about 59 000 and 34 000 children aged 5 to 14 years died from diarrheal diseases and pneumonia, corresponding to mortality of 24·1 and 13·9 per 100 000 respectively. Mortality was nearly 50% higher in girls than in boys for both diarrheal diseases and pneumonia.

Conclusions

Approximately 60% of all deaths in this age group are due to infectious diseases and nearly half of these deaths are due to diarrheal diseases and pneumonia. Mortality in this age group from infectious diseases, and diarrhea in particular, is much higher than previously estimated.     

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background

Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975–2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30–69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%.

Conclusions/Significance

Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.     

Association between serum interleukin-6 concentrations and mortality in older adults: the Rancho Bernardo study

Background

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) may have a protective role in acute liver disease but a detrimental effect in chronic liver disease. It is unknown whether IL-6 is associated with risk of liver-related mortality in humans.

Aims

To determine if IL-6 is associated with an increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and liver-related mortality.

Methods

A prospective cohort study included 1843 participants who attended a research visit in 1984–87. Multiple covariates were ascertained including serum IL-6. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to examine the association between serum IL-6 as a continuous (log transformed) variable with all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality. Patients with prevalent CVD, cancer and liver disease were excluded for cause-specific mortality.

Results

The mean (± standard deviation) age and body-mass-index (BMI) of participants was 68 (±10.6) years and 25 (±3.7) Kg/m², respectively. During the 25,802 person-years of follow-up, the cumulative all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality were 53.1% (N = 978), 25.5%, 11.3%, and 1.3%, respectively. The median (±IQR) length of follow-up was 15.3±10.6 years. In multivariable analyses, adjusted for age, sex, alcohol, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, total cholesterol, HDL, and smoking, one-SD increment in log-transformed serum IL-6 was associated with increased risk of all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality, with hazard ratios of 1.48 (95% CI, 1.33–1.64), 1.38 (95% CI, 1.16–1.65), 1.35 (95% CI, 1.02–1.79), and 1.88 (95% CI, 0.97–3.67), respectively. CRP adjustment attenuated the effects but the association between IL-6 and all-cause and CVD mortality remained statistically significant, independent of CRP levels.

Conclusions

In community-dwelling older adults, serum IL-6 is associated with all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality.     

Neonatal mortality levels for 193 countries in 2009 with trends since 1990: a systematic analysis of progress, projections, and priorities

Background

Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990–2009 with forecasts into the future.

Methods and Findings

We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life—compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990—and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa''s NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).

Conclusions

Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Neonatal mortality and prevalence of practices for newborn care in a squatter settlement of Karachi, Pakistan: a cross-sectional study

Background

During the past two decades there has been a sustained decline in child and infant mortality, however neonatal mortality has remained relatively unchanged. Almost all neonatal deaths (99%) occur in developing countries, where the majority are delivered at homes. Evidence suggests that these deaths could be prevented by simple, inexpensive practices and interventions during the pregnancy, delivery and postnatal period. In Pakistan over the last decade extensive efforts have been made by the international donors and government to implement these practices. However, limited attempts have been made to explore if these efforts have made a difference at the grass root level. This study assessed the burden of neonatal mortality and prevalence of practices for newborn care in a squatter settlement of Karachi, Pakistan.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A community based cross-sectional study was performed. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was administered to 565 women who had recently delivered. Information was collected on neonatal morbidity, mortality and practices of women regarding care during pregnancy, child birth and for newborn, till 28th day of birth. Although 70% of women mentioned receiving antenatal care by a skilled provider, only 54.5% had four or more visits. Tetanus toxoid was received by 79% of women while only 56% delivered at a health care facility by a skilled attendant. Newborn care practices like bathing the baby immediately after birth (56%), giving pre-lacteals (79.5%), late initiation of breast feeding (80.3%), application of substances on umbilical cord (58%) and body massage (89%) were common. Most neonates (81.1%) received BCG injection and polio drops after birth. Neonatal mortality rate was 27/1000 live births with the majority of deaths occurring during the first three days of life.

Conclusion

Even after years of efforts by government and nongovernmental sector to reduce newborn morbidity and mortality, inadequate antenatal care, home deliveries and unhealthy newborn care practices are highly prevalent. This leads us to important questions of why practices and behaviors have not changed. Who is responsible and what strategies are needed to bring this change?     

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacotherapy to reduce obesity

Aims

Obesity causes a high disease burden in Australia and across the world. We aimed to analyse the cost-effectiveness of weight reduction with pharmacotherapy in Australia, and to assess its potential to reduce the disease burden due to excess body weight.

Methods

We constructed a multi-state life-table based Markov model in Excel in which body weight influences the incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, post-menopausal breast cancer, colon cancer, endometrial cancer and kidney cancer. We use data on effectiveness identified from PubMed searches, on mortality from Australian Bureau of Statistics, on disease costs from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and on drug costs from the Department of Health and Ageing. We evaluate 1-year pharmacological interventions with sibutramine and orlistat targeting obese Australian adults free of obesity-related disease. We use a lifetime horizon for costs and health outcomes and a health sector perspective for costs. Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) below A$50 000 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted are considered good value for money.

Results

The ICERs are A$130 000/DALY (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 93 000–180 000) for sibutramine and A$230 000/DALY (170 000–340 000) for orlistat. The interventions reduce the body weight-related disease burden at the population level by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Modest weight loss during the interventions, rapid post-intervention weight regain and low adherence limit the health benefits.

Conclusions

Treatment with sibutramine or orlistat is not cost-effective from an Australian health sector perspective and has a negligible impact on the total body weight-related disease burden.     

Perinatal mortality in eastern Uganda: a community based prospective cohort study

Background

To achieve a child mortality reduction according to millennium development goal 4, it is necessary to considerably reduce neonatal mortality. We report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality risks as well as determinants of perinatal mortality in Eastern Uganda.

Methods

A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted between 2006 and 2008. A total of 835 pregnant women were followed up for pregnancy outcome and survival of their children until 7 days after delivery. Mother''s residence, age, parity, bed net use and whether delivery took place at home were included in multivariable regression analyses to identify risk factors for perinatal death.

Results

The stillbirth risk was 19 per 1,000 pregnancies and the early neonatal death risk 22 per 1,000 live births. Overall, the perinatal mortality risk was 41 [95%CI: 27, 54] per 1,000 pregnancies. Of the deaths, 47% followed complicated deliveries and 24% preterm births. Perinatal mortality was 63/1,000 pregnancies among teenage mothers, 76/1,000 pregnancies among nulliparous women and 61/1,000 pregnancies among women delivering at home who, after controlling for potential confounders, had a 3.7 (95%CI: 1.8, 7.4) times higher perinatal mortality than women who gave birth in a health facility. This association was considerably stronger among nulliparous women [RR 8.0 (95%CI: 2.9, 21.6)] than among women with a previous live birth [RR 1.8 (95%CI: 0.7, 4.5)]. All perinatal deaths occurred among women who did not sleep under a mosquito net. Women living in urban slums had a higher risk of losing their babies than those in rural areas [RR: 2.7 (95%CI: 1.4, 5.3)].

Conclusion

Our findings strengthen arguments for ensuring that pregnant women have access to and use adequate delivery facilities and bed nets.     

Provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling: increased uptake in two public community health centers in South Africa and implications for scale-up

Background

International guidance recommends the scale up of routinely recommended, offered, and delivered health care provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling (PITC) to increase the proportion of persons who know their HIV status. We compared HIV test uptake under PITC to provider-referral to voluntary counseling and testing (VCT referral) in two primary health centers in South Africa.

Methods

Prior to introducing PITC, clinical providers were instructed to refer systematically selected study participants to VCT. After PITC and HIV rapid test training, providers were asked to recommend, offer and provide HIV testing to study participants during the clinical consultation. Participants were interviewed before and after their consultation to assess their HIV testing experiences.

Results

HIV test uptake increased under PITC (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.71, 4.76), and more patients felt providers answered their questions on HIV (104/141 [74%] versus 73/118 [62%] for VCT referral; p 0.04). After three months, only 4/106 (3.8%) HIV-positive patients had registered for onsite HIV treatment. Providers found PITC useful, but tested very few patients (range 0–15).

Conclusion

PITC increased the uptake of HIV testing compared with referral to onsite VCT, and patients reported a positive response to PITC. However, providing universal PITC will require strong leadership to train and motivate providers, and interventions to link HIV-positive persons to HIV treatment centers.     

The effectiveness of online cognitive behavioral treatment in routine clinical practice

Context

Randomized controlled trails have identified online cognitive behavioral therapy as an efficacious intervention in the management of common mental health disorders.

Objective

To assess the effectiveness of online CBT for different mental disorders in routine clinical practice.

Design

An uncontrolled before-after study, with measurements at baseline, posttest, 6-week follow-up, and 1-year follow-up.

Participants & Setting

1500 adult patients (female: 67%; mean age: 40 years) with a GP referral for psychotherapy were treated at a Dutch online mental health clinic for symptoms of depression (n = 413), panic disorder (n = 139), posttraumatic stress (n = 478), or burnout (n = 470).

Interventions

Manualized, web-based, therapist-assisted CBT, of which the efficacy was previously demonstrated in a series of controlled trials. Standardized duration of treatment varied from 5 weeks (online CBT for Posttraumatic stress) to 16 weeks (online CBT for Depression).

Main Outcome Measures

Validated self-report questionnaires of specific and general psychopathology, including the Beck Depression Inventory, the Impact of Event Scale, the Panic Disorder Severity Scale-Self Report, the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales.

Results

Treatment adherence was 71% (n = 1071). Study attrition was 21% at posttest, 33% at 6-week FU and 65% at 1-year FU. Mixed-model repeated measures regression identified large short-term reductions in all measures of primary symptoms (d = 1.9±0.2 to d = 1.2±0.2; P<.001), which sustained up to one year after treatment. At posttest, rates of reliable improvement and recovery were 71% and 52% in the completer sample (full sample: 55%/40%). Patient satisfaction was high.

Conclusions

Results suggest that online therapist-assisted CBT may be as effective in routine practice as it is in clinical trials. Although pre-treatment withdrawal and long-term outcomes require further study, results warrant continued implementation of online CBT.     

Acute coronary syndrome in patients with prior coronary artery bypass surgery: observations from a 20-year registry in a middle-eastern country

Objectives

Clinical characteristics and trends in the outcome of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in patients with prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) are unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical characteristics, in-hospital treatment, and outcomes in patients presented with ACS with or without a history of prior CABG over 2 decades.

Methods

Data were derived from hospital-based study for collected data from 1991 through 2010 of patients hospitalized with ACS in Doha, Qatar. Data were analyzed according to their history of prior CABG. Baseline clinical characteristics, in-hospital treatment, and outcome were compared.

Results

A total 16,750 consecutive patients with ACS were studied, of which 693 (4.1%) had prior CABG. Patients with prior CABG were older (mean 60.5±11 vs. 53±12 years; P = 0.001), more likely to be females and have more cardiovascular risk factors than the non-CABG group. Prior CABG patients had larger infarct size, were less likely to receive reperfusion therapy, early invasive therapy and more likely to receive evidence-based therapies when compared to non-CABG patients. In-hospital mortality and stroke rates were comparable between the 2 groups. Over 2 decades, there was reduction in the in-hospital mortality rates and stroke rates in both groups (CABG, death; 13.2% to 4%, stroke; 1.9% to 0.0%, non-CABG, death; 10% to 3.2%, stroke 1.0% to 0.1%; all, p = 0.001).

Conclusion

Significant reduction in-hospital morbidity and mortality among ACS patients with prior CABG over a 20-year period.     

Risk factors for death in children with visceral leishmaniasis

Background

Despite the major public health importance of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Latin America, well-designed studies to inform diagnosis, treatment and control interventions are scarce. Few observational studies address prognostic assessment in patients with VL. This study aimed to identify risk factors for death in children aged less than 15 years admitted for VL treatment in a referral center in northeast Brazil.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a retrospective cohort, we reviewed 546 records of patients younger than 15 years admitted with the diagnosis of VL at the Instituto de Medicina Integral Professor Fernando Figueira between May 1996 and June 2006. Age ranged from 4 months to 13.7 years, and 275 (50%) were male. There were 57 deaths, with a case-fatality rate of 10%. In multivariate logistic regression, the independent predictors of risk of dying from VL were (adjusted OR, 95% CI): mucosal bleeding (4.1, 1.3–13.4), jaundice (4.4, 1.7–11.2), dyspnea (2.8, 1.2–6.1), suspected or confirmed bacterial infections (2.7, 1.2–6.1), neutrophil count <500/mm³ (3.1, 1.4–6.9) and platelet count <50,000/mm³ (11.7, 5.4–25.1). A prognostic score was proposed and had satisfactory sensitivity (88.7%) and specificity (78.5%).

Conclusions/Significance

Prognostic and severity markers can be useful to inform clinical decisions such as whether a child with VL can be safely treated in the local healthcare facility or would potentially benefit from transfer to referral centers where advanced life support facilities are available. High risk patients may benefit from interventions such as early use of extended-spectrum antibiotics or transfusion of blood products. These baseline risk-based supportive interventions should be assessed in clinical trials.     

Pedestrian road traffic injuries in urban Peruvian children and adolescents: case control analyses of personal and environmental risk factors

Background

Child pedestrian road traffic injuries (RTIs) are an important cause of death and disability in poorer nations, however RTI prevention strategies in those countries largely draw upon studies conducted in wealthier countries. This research investigated personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs relevant to an urban, developing world setting.

Methods

This is a case control study of personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs in San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Perú. The analysis of personal risk factors included 100 cases of serious pedestrian RTIs and 200 age and gender matched controls. Demographic, socioeconomic, and injury data were collected. The environmental risk factor study evaluated vehicle and pedestrian movement and infrastructure at the sites in which 40 of the above case RTIs occurred and 80 control sites.

Findings

After adjustment, factors associated with increased risk of child pedestrian RTIs included high vehicle volume (OR 7·88, 95%CI 1·97–31·52), absent lane demarcations (OR 6·59, 95% CI 1·65–26·26), high vehicle speed (OR 5·35, 95%CI 1·55–18·54), high street vendor density (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·01–1·55), and more children living in the home (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·00–1·56). Protective factors included more hours/day spent in school (OR 0·52, 95%CI 0·33–0·82) and years of family residence in the same home (OR 0·97, 95%CI 0·95–0·99).

Conclusion

Reducing traffic volumes and speeds, limiting the number of street vendors on a given stretch of road, and improving lane demarcation should be evaluated as components of child pedestrian RTI interventions in poorer countries.     

Clinical outcome of high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction undergoing medical treatment or TAVI

Introduction

Reduced left ventricular function in patients with severe symptomatic valvular aortic stenosis is associated with impaired clinical outcome in patients undergoing surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) has been shown non-inferior to SAVR in high-risk patients with respect to mortality and may result in faster left ventricular recovery.

Methods

We investigated clinical outcomes of high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing medical treatment (n = 71) or TAVI (n = 256) stratified by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in a prospective single center registry.

Results

Twenty-five patients (35%) among the medical cohort were found to have an LVEF≤30% (mean 26.7±4.1%) and 37 patients (14%) among the TAVI patients (mean 25.2±4.4%). Estimated peri-interventional risk as assessed by logistic EuroSCORE was significantly higher in patients with severely impaired LVEF as compared to patients with LVEF>30% (medical/TAVI 38.5±13.8%/40.6±16.4% versus medical/TAVI 22.5±10.8%/22.1±12.8%, p <0.001). In patients undergoing TAVI, there was no significant difference in the combined endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, major stroke, life-threatening bleeding, major access-site complications, valvular re-intervention, or renal failure at 30 days between the two groups (21.0% versus 27.0%, p = 0.40). After TAVI, patients with LVEF≤30% experienced a rapid improvement in LVEF (from 25±4% to 34±10% at discharge, p = 0.002) associated with improved NYHA functional class at 30 days (decrease ≥1 NYHA class in 95%). During long-term follow-up no difference in survival was observed in patients undergoing TAVI irrespective of baseline LVEF (p = 0.29), whereas there was a significantly higher mortality in medically treated patients with severely reduced LVEF (log rank p = 0.001).

Conclusion

TAVI in patients with severely reduced left ventricular function may be performed safely and is associated with rapid recovery of systolic left ventricular function and heart failure symptoms.     

Is Self-Rated Health an Independent Index for Mortality among Older People in Indonesia?

Background

Empirical studies on the association between self-rated health (SRH) and subsequent mortality are generally lacking in low- and middle-income countries. The evidence on whether socio-economic status and education modify this association is inconsistent. This study aims to fill these gaps using longitudinal data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) site in Indonesia.

Methods

In 2010, we assessed the mortality status of 11,753 men and women aged 50+ who lived in Purworejo HDSS and participated in the INDEPTH WHO SAGE baseline in 2007. Information on self-rated health, socio-demographic indicators, disability and chronic disease were collected through face-to-face interview at baseline. We used Cox-proportional hazards regression for mortality and included all variables measured at baseline, including interaction terms between SRH and both education and socio-economic status (SES).

Results

During an average of 36 months follow-up, 11% of men and 9.5% of women died, resulting in death rates of 3.1 and 2.6 per 1,000 person-months, respectively. The age-adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) for mortality was 17% higher in men than women (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 1.04–1.31). After adjustment for covariates, the hazard ratios for mortality in men and women reporting bad health were 3.0 (95% CI = 2.0–4.4) and 4.9 (95% CI = 3.2–7.4), respectively. Education and SES did not modify this association for either sex.

Conclusions

This study supports the predictive power of bad self-rated health for subsequent mortality in rural Indonesian men and women 50 years old and over. In these analyses, education and household socio-economic status do not modify the relationship between SRH and mortality. This means that older people who rate their own health poorly should be an important target group for health service interventions.     

Cytomegalovirus viremia as a risk factor for mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected gold miners in South Africa

Background

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia has been shown to be an independent risk factor for increased mortality among HIV-infected individuals in the developing world. While CMV infection is nearly ubiquitous in resource-poor settings, few data are available on the role of subclinical CMV reactivation on HIV.

Methods

Using a cohort of mineworkers with stored plasma samples, we investigated the association between CMV DNA concentration and mortality prior to antiretroviral therapy availability.

Results

Among 1341 individuals (median CD4 count 345 cells/µl, 70% WHO stage 1 or 2, median follow-up 0.9 years), 70 (5.2%) had CMV viremia at baseline; 71 deaths occurred. In univariable analysis CMV viremia at baseline was associated with a three-fold increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.37; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.60, 7.10). After adjustment for CD4 count, WHO stage and HIV viral load (N = 429 with complete data), the association was attenuated (HR 2.27; 95%CI 0.88, 5.83). Mortality increased with higher CMV viremia (≥1,000 copies/ml vs. no viremia, adjusted HR 3.65, 95%CI: 1.29, 10.41). Results were similar using time-updated CMV viremia.

Conclusions

High copy number, subclinical CMV viremia was an independent risk factor for mortality among male HIV-infected adults in South Africa with relatively early HIV disease. Studies to determine whether anti-CMV therapy to mitigate high copy number viremia would increase lifespan are warranted.     

Case management of severe malaria--a forgotten practice: experiences from health facilities in Uganda

Introduction

Severe malaria is a life-threatening medical emergency and requires prompt and effective treatment to prevent death. There is paucity of published information on current practices of severe malaria case management in sub-Saharan Africa; we evaluated the management practices for severe malaria in Ugandan health facilities

Methods and Findings

We did a cross sectional survey, using multi-stage sampling methods, of health facilities in 11 districts in the eastern and mid-western parts of Uganda. The study instruments were adapted from the WHO hospital care assessment tools. Between June and August 2009, 105 health facilities were surveyed and 181 health workers and 868 patients/caretakers interviewed. None of the inpatient facilities had all seven components of a basic care package for the management of severe malaria consistently available during the 3 months prior to the survey. Referral practices were appropriate for <10% (18/196) of the patients. Prompt care at any health facility was reported by 29% (247/868) of patients. Severe malaria was correctly diagnosed in 27% of patients (233).Though the quinine dose and regimen was correct in the majority (611/868, 70.4%) of patients, it was administered in the correct volumes of 5% dextrose in only 18% (147/815). Most patients (80.1%) had several doses of quinine administered in one single 500 ml bottle of 5% dextrose. Medications were purchased by 385 (44%) patients and medical supplies by 478 patients (70.6%).

Conclusions

Management of severe malaria in Ugandan health facilities was sub-optimal. These findings highlight the challenges of correctly managing severe malaria in resource limited settings. Priority areas for improvement include triage and emergency care, referral practises, quality of diagnosis and treatment, availability of medicines and supplies, training and support supervision.     

Recent HIV-1 infection contributes to the viral diffusion over the French territory with a recent increasing frequency

Objective

To analyse the contribution of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection (PHI) to the French viral epidemic.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences included 987 PHI from the French ANRS PRIMO cohort between 1999 and 2010 and were analysed using a population-based phylogenetic approach. Clinical features, risk factors, sexual behaviour and drug resistance for clustered and nonclustered transmission events were ascertained.

Results

Viruses from 125 (12.7%) of PHI cosegregated into 56 transmission chains, with increasing frequency during the last years (10.2% before 2006 versus 15.2% of clusters in 2006–2010, p = 0.02). The mean number of patients per cluster was 2.44. Compared to unique PHI, clusters involved more often men, infected through homosexual intercourse, of young age, with a high number of casual sexual partnerships and frequent previous HIV serological tests. Resistant strains were found in 16.0% and 11.1% of clusters and unique PHI, respectively (p = 0.11). Overall, 34% (n = 19) clusters included patients followed in French regions far apart, involving 13 clusters with at least one Parisian patient.

Conclusions

PHIs are a significant source of onward transmission, especially in the MSM population. Recently infected people contribute to the spread of the viral epidemic throughout the French territory. Survey of transmitted drug resistance and behavioural characteristics of patients involved into clustered PHI may help to guide prevention and treatment interventions.