Rodent models of malaria in the genomics era

The Rodent Malaria Genomics Symposium: Current Status and Future Directions was held on 15-16 November 2001 in Atlanta, GA, USA.     

Surveillance considerations for malaria elimination

ABSTRACT: Constant malaria monitoring and surveillance systems have been highlighted as critical for malaria elimination. The absence of robust monitoring and surveillance systems able to respond to outbreaks in a timely manner undeniably contributed to the failure of the last global attempt to eradicate malaria. Today, technological advances could allow for rapid detection of focal outbreaks and improved deployment of diagnostic and treatment supplies to areas needing support. However, optimizing diffusion activities (e.g., distributing vector controls and medicines, as well as deploying behaviour change campaigns) requires networks of diverse scholars to monitor, learn, and evaluate data and multiple organizations to coordinate their intervention activities. Surveillance systems that can gather, store and process information, from communities to national levels, in a centralized, widely accessible system will allow tailoring of surveillance and intervention efforts. Different systems and, thus reactions, will be effective in different endemic, geographical or socio-cultural contexts. Investing in carefully designed monitoring technologies, built for a multiple-acter, dynamic system, will help to improve malaria elimination efforts by improving the coordination, timing, coverage, and deployment of malaria technologies.     

The feasibility of malaria elimination in South Africa

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) for malaria have been demonstrated to be effective and they should replace microscopy in certain areas. The cost-effectiveness of five RDT and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on Brazilian Extra-Amazon Region. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, laboratory suppliers and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2010. Two costing methods were produced, based on exclusive-use microscopy or shared-use microscopy. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2010 U.S. dollars. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. In the cost-effectiveness analysis with exclusive-use microscopy, the RDT CareStart™ was the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy. Microscopy was the most expensive and most effective, with an additional case adequately diagnosed by microscopy costing US$ 35,550.00 in relation to CareStart™. In opposite, in the cost-effectiveness analysis with shared-use microscopy, the thick smear was extremely cost-effective. Introducing into the analytic model with shared-use microscopy a probability for individual access to the diagnosis, assuming a probability of 100% of access for a public health system user to any RDT and, hypothetically, of 85% of access to microscopy, this test saw its effectiveness reduced and was dominated by the RDT CareStart™. The analysis of cost-effectiveness of malaria diagnosis technologies in the Brazilian Extra-Amazon Region depends on the exclusive or shared use of the microscopy. Following the assumptions of this study, shared-use microscopy would be the most cost-effective strategy of the six technologies evaluated. However, if used exclusively for diagnosing malaria, microscopy would be the worst use of resources. Microscopy would not be the most cost-effective strategy, even when structure is shared with other programmes, when the probability of a patient having access to it was reduced. Under these circumstances, the RDT CareStart™ would be the most cost-effective strategy.     

Temporal trends in severe malaria in Chittagong, Bangladesh

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Epidemiological data on malaria in Bangladesh are sparse, particularly on severe and fatal malaria. This hampers the allocation of healthcare provision in this resource-poor setting. Over 85% of the estimated 150,000-250,000 annual malaria cases in Bangladesh occur in Chittagong Division with 80% in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Chittagong Medical College Hospital (CMCH) is the major tertiary referral hospital for severe malaria in Chittagong Division. METHODS: Malaria screening data from 22,785 inpatients in CMCH from 1999-2011 were analysed to investigate the patterns of referral, temporal trends and geographical distribution of severe malaria in Chittagong Division, Bangladesh. RESULTS: From 1999 till 2011, 2,394 malaria cases were admitted, of which 96% harboured Plasmodium falciparum and 4% Plasmodium vivax. Infection was commonest in males (67%) between 15 and 34 years of age. Seasonality of malaria incidence was marked with a single peak in P. falciparum transmission from June to August coinciding with peak rainfall, whereas P. vivax showed an additional peak in February-March possibly representing relapse infections. Since 2007 there has been a substantial decrease in the absolute number of admitted malaria cases. Case fatality in severe malaria was 18% from 2008-2011, remaining steady during this period. A travel history obtained in 226 malaria patients revealed only 33% had been to the CHT in the preceding three weeks. Of all admitted malaria patients, only 9% lived in the CHT, and none in the more remote malaria endemic regions near the Indian border. CONCLUSIONS: The overall decline in admitted malaria cases to CMCH suggests recent control measures are successful. However, there are no reliable data on the incidence of severe malaria in the CHT, the most endemic area of Bangladesh, and most of these patients do not reach tertiary health facilities. Improvement of early treatment and simple supportive care for severe malaria in remote areas and implementation of a referral system for cases requiring additional supportive care could be an important component of further reducing malaria-attributable disease and death in Bangladesh.     

A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination''s ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system''s increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination''s stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.     

Spatial prediction of malaria prevalence in an endemic area of Bangladesh

Background

Malaria is a major public health burden in Southeastern Bangladesh, particularly in the Chittagong Hill Tracts region. Malaria is endemic in 13 districts of Bangladesh and the highest prevalence occurs in Khagrachari (15.47%).

Methods

A risk map was developed and geographic risk factors identified using a Bayesian approach. The Bayesian geostatistical model was developed from previously identified individual and environmental covariates (p < 0.2; age, different forest types, elevation and economic status) for malaria prevalence using WinBUGS 1.4. Spatial correlation was estimated within a Bayesian framework based on a geostatistical model. The infection status (positives and negatives) was modeled using a Bernoulli distribution. Maps of the posterior distributions of predicted prevalence were developed in geographic information system (GIS).

Results

Predicted high prevalence areas were located along the north-eastern areas, and central part of the study area. Low to moderate prevalence areas were predicted in the southwestern, southeastern and central regions. Individual age and nearness to fragmented forest were associated with malaria prevalence after adjusting the spatial auto-correlation.

Conclusion

A Bayesian analytical approach using multiple enabling technologies (geographic information systems, global positioning systems, and remote sensing) provide a strategy to characterize spatial heterogeneity in malaria risk at a fine scale. Even in the most hyper endemic region of Bangladesh there is substantial spatial heterogeneity in risk. Areas that are predicted to be at high risk, based on the environment but that have not been reached by surveys are identified.

     

Characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of malaria incidence in Bangladesh, 2007

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a significant health problem in Bangladesh affecting 13 of 64 districts. The risk of malaria is variable across the endemic areas and throughout the year. A better understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in malaria risk and the determinants driving the variation are crucial for the appropriate targeting of interventions under the National Malaria Control and Prevention Programme. METHODS: Numbers of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria cases reported by month in 2007, across the 70 endemic thanas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh, were assembled from health centre surveillance reports. Bayesian Poisson regression models of incidence were constructed, with fixed effects for monthly rainfall, maximum temperature and elevation, and random effects for thanas, with a conditional autoregressive prior spatial structure. RESULTS: The annual incidence of reported cases was 34.0 and 9.6 cases/10,000 population for P. falciparum and P. vivax respectively and the population of the 70 malaria-endemic thanas was approximately 13.5 million in 2007. Incidence of reported cases for both types of malaria was highest in the mountainous south-east of the country (the Chittagong Hill Tracts). Models revealed statistically significant positive associations between the incidence of reported P. vivax and P. falciparum cases and rainfall and maximum temperature. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of P. falciparum and P. vivax was spatially variable across the endemic thanas of Bangladesh and also highly seasonal, suggesting that interventions should be targeted and timed according to the risk profile of the endemic areas. Rainfall, temperature and elevation are major factors driving the spatiotemporal patterns of malaria in Bangladesh.     

Towards malaria elimination - a new thematic series

The launch of a new thematic series of Malaria Journal -- "Towards malaria elimination" -- creates the forum that allows carrying scientific evidence on how to achieve malaria elimination in specific endemic settings and conditions into the circles of scientists, public health specialists, national and global programme managers, funders and decision makers.     

Control to elimination: implications for malaria research

Recent reports indicate that a high level of malaria control can be achieved with existing control tools once their use has been scaled up. This has led to renewed interest in the possibility of malaria elimination, an approach that is now supported by several influential organisations. An increasing focus on elimination requires a review of priorities within the malaria research agenda. The development of drugs and vaccines with a strong transmission-blocking potential becomes increasingly important. Novel approaches to surveillance will be necessary to ensure that once elimination has been achieved, it is not threatened by a rapid reintroduction of malaria from neighbouring areas.     

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.     

The evolution of drug-resistant malaria: the role of drug elimination half-life

This paper seeks to define and quantify the influence of drug elimination half-life on the evolution of antimalarial drug resistance. There are assumed to be three general classes of susceptibility of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to a drug: Res0, the original, susceptible wildtype; Res1, a group of intermediate levels of susceptibility that are more tolerant of the drug but still cleared by treatment; and Res2, which is completely resistant to the drug. Res1 and Res2 resistance both evolve much faster if the antimalarial drug has a long half-life. We show that previous models have significantly underestimated the rate of evolution of Res2 resistance by omitting the effects of drug half-life. The methodology has been extended to investigate (i) the effects of using drugs in combination, particularly when the components have differing half-lives, and (ii) the specific example of the development of resistance to the antimalarial pyrimethamine-sulphadoxine. An important detail of the model is the development of drug resistance in two separate phases. In phase A, Res1 is spreading and replacing the original sensitive forms while Res2 remains at a low level. Phase B starts once parasites are selected that can escape drug action (Res1 genotypes with borderline chemosensitivity, and Res2): these parasites are rapidly selected, a process that leads to widespread clinical failure. Drug treatment is clinically successful during phase A, and health workers may be unaware of the substantial changes in parasite population genetic structure that predicate the onset of phase B. Surveillance programs are essential, following the introduction of a new drug, to monitor effectively changes in treatment efficacy and thus provide advance warning of drug failure. The model is also applicable to the evolution of antibiotic resistance in bacteria: in particular, the need for these models to incorporate drug pharmacokinetics to avoid potentially large errors in their predictions.     

The global pipeline of new medicines for the control and elimination of malaria

ABSTRACT: Over the past decade, there has been a transformation in the portfolio of medicines to combat malaria. New fixed-dose artemisinin combination therapy is available, with four different types having received approval from Stringent Regulatory Authorities or the World Health Organization (WHO). However, there is still scope for improvement. The Malaria Eradication Research agenda identified several gaps in the current portfolio. Simpler regimens, such as a single-dose cure are needed, compared with the current three-day treatment. In addition, new medicines that prevent transmission and also relapse are needed, but with better safety profiles than current medicines. There is also a big opportunity for new medicines to prevent reinfection and to provide chemoprotection. This study reviews the global portfolio of new medicines in development against malaria, as of the summer of 2012. Cell-based phenotypic screening, and 'fast followers' of clinically validated classes, mean that there are now many new classes of molecules starting in clinical development, especially for the blood stages of malaria. There remain significant gaps for medicines blocking transmission, preventing relapse, and long-duration molecules for chemoprotection. The nascent pipeline of new medicines is significantly stronger than five years ago. However, there are still risks ahead in clinical development and sustainable funding of clinical studies is vital if this early promise is going to be delivered.