Change in alcohol consumption and risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease with a focus on differentiating between long term abstainers and more recent non-drinkers. DESIGN--Cohort study of changes in alcohol consumption from 1965 to 1974 and mortality from all causes and ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. SETTING--Population based study of adult residents of Alameda County, California. SUBJECTS--2225 women and 1845 men aged 35 and over in 1965. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Alcohol consumption in 1964 and 1974 and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. RESULTS--There was a significantly higher risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease in women who gave up drinking between 1965 and 1974 than in women who continued to drink (relative risk 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.66, and 2.75, 1.44 to 5.23, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). A significant increase in risk was not seen in men who gave up drinking (1.32, 0.87 to 2.01, and 0.95, 0.41 to 2.20, respectively). Among men, long term abstainers compared with drinkers were at increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease, though the associations were not significant (1.40, 0.98 to 2.00, and 1.40, 0.76 to 2.58, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). CONCLUSION--Some of the increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease associated with not drinking in women seems to be accounted for by higher risks among those who gave up drinking. Men who are long term abstainers may also be at an increased risk of death. The heterogeneity of the non-drinking group should be considered when comparisons are made with drinkers.     

Twenty five years of case finding and audit in a socially deprived community.

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate audit and case finding (whole population care) in a community over 25 years. DESIGN--Contemporary screening for and audits of care of chronic disease and risk factors; retrospective review of computerised practice records; and comparisons of mortality and social indices with neighbouring communities. SETTING--One general practice in Glyncorrwg, West Glamorgan. SUBJECTS--1800 people registered with the practice in 1987 and 558 people who died from 1964 to 1987, whose records had been retained. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Detection of high blood pressure, smoking, airways obstruction, obesity, diabetes, and alcohol problems in adults aged 20-79; prevalence of smoking in this population and in hypertensive and diabetic groups; age standardised mortality ratios in relation to indices of social deprivation. RESULTS--In the population aged 20-79 (1207 patients) 249 (21%) had peak expiratory flow rate less than 50% of expected value or which improved by 15% or more with an inhaled beta agonist, 207 (17%) had body mass index at or over 30 kg/m2, 118 (10%) had untreated mean arterial pressures greater than 159/104 mm Hg (three readings), 80 (7%) (65 (16%) men, 15 (4%) women) had recognised alcohol problems, and 35 (3%) had diabetes. The proportion of men aged 20-64 who said they smoked fell from 61% (290/476) in 1968-70 to 36% (162/456) in 1985 whereas that of women who smoked was unchanged (43%, 187/436 v 42%, 190/448 respectively). In 116 screened hypertensive patients group mean blood pressure fell from 186/110 mm Hg before treatment to 146/84 mm Hg at 1987 audit, as did the proportion of smokers (56% v 20%), but body mass index and total cholesterol concentration showed no significant change. In 34 diabetic patients mean blood pressure and the proportion of smokers fell (171/93 mm Hg v 155/81 mm Hg; 44% v 12%). The age standardised mortality ratio in 1981-6 was lower than in a neighbouring village without a developed case finding programme (actual to expected deaths less than 65 = 21 to 22 in Glyncorrwg, 48 to 30 in control village). CONCLUSIONS--Whole population care through organised case finding and audit is feasible but only with a labour intensive approach combining accessibility, flexibility, and continuity, as well as a planned and structured approach, which requires substantial expansion of staff numbers and assiduous recording. It may reduce risks for at least some high risk groups. Despite their shortcomings the available data are consistent with the hypothesis that whole population care helps reduce mortality. Incentives in the new contract, which encourage the uncritical development of structured process, may diminish health outputs.     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

ObjectiveTo assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China.DesignSmoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes.Setting24 urban and 74 rural areas of China.SubjectsOne million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed.ResultsAmong male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase.ConclusionsAt current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Key messages

• Of the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosis
• Tobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become small
• Two thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old age
• If present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobacco
• Tobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns

     

Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur. DESIGN--(a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general''s (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case. SETTING--North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland). SUBJECTS--Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991. RESULTS--There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death. CONCLUSIONS--Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.     

Mortality and smoking in Hong Kong: case-control study of all adult deaths in 1998

ObjectiveTo assess the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, and, since cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier in Hong Kong than in mainland China, to predict mortality in China 20 years hence.DesignCase-control study. Past smoking habits of all Chinese adults in Hong Kong who died in 1998 (cases) were sought from those registering the death.SettingAll the death registries in Hong Kong.Participants27 507 dead cases (81% of all registered deaths) and 13 054 live controls aged ⩾35 years.ResultsIn men aged 35-69 the adjusted risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) comparing smokers with non-smokers were 1.92 (1.70 to 2.16) for all deaths, 2.22 (1.94 to 2.55) for neoplastic deaths, 2.60 (2.10 to 3.21) for respiratory deaths (including tuberculosis, risk ratio 2.54), and 1.68 (1.43 to 1.97) for vascular deaths (each P<0.0001). In women aged 35-69 the corresponding risk ratios were 1.62 (1.40 to 1.88) for all deaths, 1.60 (1.33 to 1.93) for neoplastic deaths, 3.13 (2.21 to 4.44) for respiratory deaths, and 1.55 (1.20 to 1.99) for vascular deaths (each P<0.001). If these associations with smoking are largely or wholly causal then, among all registered deaths at ages 35-69 in 1998, tobacco caused about 33% (2534/7588) of all male deaths and 5% (169/3341) of all female deaths (hence 25% of all deaths at these ages). At older ages tobacco seemed to be the cause of 15% (3017/20 420) of all deaths.ConclusionsAmong middle aged men the proportion of deaths caused by smoking is more than twice as big in Hong Kong now (33%) as in mainland China 10 years earlier. This supports predictions of a large increase in tobacco attributable mortality in China as a whole.

What is already known on this topic

China, with 20% of the world''s population, smokes 30% of the world''s cigarettes. Men smoke most, and the proportion of male deaths at ages 35-69 attributable to tobacco has been predicted to rise over the next few decades from 13% (in 1988) to about 33%In Hong Kong cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier than in mainland China, so the epidemic of male deaths from tobacco should now be at a more advanced stage

What this study adds

In the general population of Hong Kong in 1998 tobacco caused about 33% of all male deaths at ages 35-69 plus 5% of all female deaths, and hence 25% of all deaths at these agesIn the male smokers tobacco caused about half of all deaths at ages 35-69The hazards now seen in Hong Kong foreshadow a substantial increase in tobacco deaths among middle aged men in mainland China over the next few decades if current smoking patterns persist     

Coverage and uptake of systematic postal screening for genital Chlamydia trachomatis and prevalence of infection in the United Kingdom general population: cross sectional study

Objective To measure the coverage and uptake of systematic postal screening for genital Chlamydia trachomatis and the prevalence of infection in the general population in the United Kingdom. To investigate factors associated with these measures.Design Cross sectional survey of people randomly selected from general practice registers. Invitation to provide a specimen collected at home.Setting England.Participants 19 773 men and women aged 16-39 years invited to participate in screening.Main outcome measures Coverage and uptake of screening; prevalence of chlamydia.Results Coverage of chlamydia screening was 73% and was lower in areas with a higher proportion of non-white residents. Uptake in 16-24 year olds was 31.5% and was lower in men, younger adults, and practices in disadvantaged areas. Overall prevalence of chlamydia was 2.8% (95%confidence interval 2.2% to 3.4%) in men and 3.6% (3.1% to 4.9%) in women, but it was higher in people younger than 25 years (men 5.1%; 4.0% to 6.3%; women 6.2%; 5.2% to 7.8%). Prevalence was higher in the subgroup of younger women who were harder to engage in screening. The strongest determinant of chlamydial infection was having one or more new sexual partners in the past year.Conclusions Postal chlamydia screening was feasible, but coverage was incomplete and uptake was modest. Lower coverage of postal screening in areas with more non-white residents along with poorer uptake in more deprived areas and among women at higher risk of infection could mean that screening leads to wider inequalities in sexual health.     

Mortality of bereavement.

The death rate of a group of 87 widowers and 279 widows was followed for two years from the death of their spouses. The life tables for England and Wales 1970-2 indicated that the expected number of deaths would be 6 men and 11 women. The actual numbers (9 men and 11 women, 5.5%) were not significantly different, though there were more widowers'' deaths during the first six months of bereavement. There was no significantly greater mortality among those whose spouses had died in hospital; but when this had occurred the health of the second spouse was likely to have been poorer than that of those whose spouses had died at home.     

Audit of practice based cervical smear programme: completion of the cycle.

OBJECTIVES--To determine the effectiveness of a practice based cervical screening programme and the changing pattern of abnormal smear results and to improve the quality of care provided for patients. DESIGN--Audit of practice held data on cervical screening from 1980 to 1990. Changes in the programme were made after analysis of first five years'' data. SETTING--Mixed urban and rural practice of 10,900 patients in Northumberland. SUBJECTS--Women aged 20-65 who had not had a hysterectomy. RESULTS--2356 (85.1%) of the 2767 targeted women had a test during 1980-5 and 2498 (89.5%) of the 2790 women had a test during 1985-90. Inviting women aged 20-25 to attend for a test increased coverage from 45.8% (146/319) in 1980-5 to 82.5% (282/342) in 1985-90. The proportion of women with abnormalities requiring hospital referral rose in the second half of the study, especially among younger women (from 17/39 (44%) to 45/64 (70%) in women aged 25-34). CONCLUSIONS--Practice based cervical screening programmes can be highly effective. Cytological abnormalities affect patients psychologically as well as physically and practices should provide support and explanation for patients with abnormal results. Data from individual practices should be aggregated to allow health authorities to plan secondary care effectively.     

Changing Patterns in Place of Cancer Death in England: A Population-Based Study

Background

Most patients with cancer prefer to die at home or in a hospice, but hospitals remain the most common place of death (PoD).This study aims to explore the changing time trends of PoD and the associated factors, which are essential for end-of-life care improvement.

Methods and Findings

The study analysed all cancer deaths in England collected by the Office for National Statistics during 1993–2010 (n = 2,281,223). Time trends of age- and gender-standardised proportion of deaths in individual PoDs were evaluated using weighted piecewise linear regression. Variables associated with PoD (home or hospice versus hospital) were determined using proportion ratio (PR) derived from the log-binomial regression, adjusting for clustering effects. Hospital remained the most common PoD throughout the study period (48.0%; 95% CI 47.9%–48.0%), followed by home (24.5%; 95% CI 24.4%–24.5%), and hospice (16.4%; 95% CI 16.3%–16.4%). Home and hospice deaths increased since 2005 (0.87%; 95% CI 0.74%–0.99%/year, 0.24%; 95% CI 0.17%–0.32%/year, respectively, p<0.001), while hospital deaths declined (−1.20%; 95% CI −1.41 to −0.99/year, p<0.001). Patients who died from haematological cancer (PRs 0.46–0.52), who were single, widowed, or divorced (PRs 0.75–0.88), and aged over 75 (PRs 0.81–0.84 for 75–84; 0.66–0.72 for 85+) were less likely to die in home or hospice (p<0.001; reference groups: colorectal cancer, married, age 25–54). There was little improvement in patients with lung cancer of dying in home or hospice (PRs 0.87–0.88). Marital status became the second most important factor associated with PoD, after cancer type. Patients from less deprived areas (higher quintile of the deprivation index) were more likely to die at home or in a hospice than those from more deprived areas (lower quintile of the deprivation index; PRs 1.02–1.12). The analysis is limited by a lack of data on individual patients'' preferences for PoD or a clinical indication of the most appropriate PoD.

Conclusions

More efforts are needed to reduce hospital deaths. Health care facilities should be improved and enhanced to support the increased home and hospice deaths. People who are single, widowed, or divorced should be a focus for end-of-life care improvement, along with known at risk groups such as haematological cancer, lung cancer, older age, and deprivation. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Secular decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in adults with diabetes mellitus: cohort study

Objective To examine trends in fatal coronary heart disease in adults with and without diabetes.Design Cohort study.Setting Two surveys of the Nord-Trøndelag health study (HUNT), a population based study in Norway.Participants 74 914 men and women from the first survey (1984-6) and 64 829 from the second survey (1995-7).Main outcome measure Age specific mortality from coronary heart disease among adults with and without diabetes during two consecutive nine year follow-up periods.Results A total of 2623 men and 1583 women died from coronary heart disease. Mortality rates were substantially lower during the most recent follow-up period: among men aged 70-79 without diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years declined from 16.38 to 8.79 (reduction 48%, 95% confidence interval 39% to 55%) and among women aged 70-79 from 6.84 to 2.68 (62%, 52% to 70%). Among the same age group with diabetes, deaths per 1000 person years in men declined from 38.97 to 17.89 (54%, 32% to 69%) and in women from 28.15 to 11.83 (59%, 37% to 73%). The reduction was more noticeable in age groups younger than 70 at baseline, and less pronounced among people aged 80 or more. Mortality from coronary heart disease was more than twofold higher in people with than without diabetes, with a slightly stronger association in women. The difference in mortality by diabetes status remained almost unchanged from the first to the second survey.Conclusion The strong general reduction in mortality rates from coronary heart disease from the first to the second follow-up period also benefited people with diabetes, but the more than twofold higher mortality from coronary heart disease associated with diabetes persisted over time.     

Improvements in survival from childhood cancer: results of a population based survey over 30 years

Survival from cancer of children whose cancer was diagnosed during the 30 years 1954-83 was analysed. The study was population based with nearly 3000 cases covering about 30 million child years at risk. When survival during the three decades 1954-63, 1964-73, and 1974-83 was compared striking improvements were observed. For all childhood cancer five year survival increased from 21% in the first decade to 49% in the third decade. During the first and third decades five year survival rates for acute lymphocytic leukaemia increased from 2% to 47%, Hodgkin''s disease from 44% to 91%, non-Hodgkin''s lymphoma from 18% to 45%, Wilms''s tumour from 31% to 85%, and germ cell tumours from 10% to 64%. Twenty patients developed second primary tumours, but otherwise there were few late deaths. Less than 1% of children who survived without a relapse for 10 years subsequently died of their initial cancer.Survival from childhood cancer is no longer rare, and people who have been cured of cancer during childhood should be accepted as normal members of society.     

Birth rights and rituals in rural south India: care seeking in the intrapartum period

Maternal morbidity and mortality are high in the Indian context, but the majority of maternal deaths could be avoided by prompt and effective access to intrapartum care (WHO, 1999). Understanding the care seeking responses to intrapartum morbidities is crucial if maternal health is to be effectively improved, and maternal mortality reduced. This paper presents the results of a prospective study of 388 women followed through delivery and traditional postpartum in rural Karnataka in southern India. In this setting, few women use the existing health facilities and most deliveries occur at home. The analysis uses quantitative data, collected via questionnaires administered to women both during pregnancy and immediately after delivery. By virtue of its prospective design, the study gives a unique insight into intentions for intrapartum care during pregnancy as well as events following morbidities during labour. Routine care in the intrapartum period, both within institutions and at home, and impediments to appropriate care are also examined. The study was designed to collect information about health seeking decisions made by women and their families as pregnancies unfolded, rather than trying to capture women's experience from a retrospective instrument. The data set is therefore a rich source of quantitative information, which incorporates details of event sequences and health service utilization not previously collected in a Safe Motherhood study. Additional qualitative information was also available from concurrent in-depth interviews with pregnant women, their families, health care providers and other key informants in the area. The level of unplanned institutional care seeking during the intrapartum period within the study area was very high, increasing from 11% planning deliveries at a facility to an eventual 35% actually delivering in hospitals. In addition there was a significant move away from planned deliveries with the auxiliary nurse midwive (ANM), to births with a lay attendant or dai. The proportion of women who planned for an ANM to assist was 49%, as compared with the actual occurrence, which was less than half of this proportion. Perceived quality of care was found to be an important factor in health seeking behaviour, as was wealth, caste, education and experience of previous problems in pregnancy. Actual care given by a range of practitioners was found to contain both beneficial and undesirable elements. As a response to serious morbidities experienced within the study period, many women were able to seek care although sometimes after a long delay. Those women who experienced inadequate progression of labour pains were most likely to proceed unexpectedly to a hospital delivery.     

Low serum cholesterol concentration and short term mortality from injuries in men and women.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether total serum cholesterol concentration predicts mortality from injuries including suicide. DESIGN--Cohort study of men and women who had their serum cholesterol concentration measured as part of a general health survey in Värmland, Sweden in 1964 or 1965 and were followed up for an average of 20.5 years. SUBJECTS--Adults participating in health screening in 1964-5 (26,693 men and 27,692 women). The study sample was restricted to subjects aged 45-74 years during any of the 20.5 years of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Serum cholesterol concentration. Deaths from all injuries and suicides during three periods of follow up (0-6 years, 7-13 years, and 14-21 years) according to the Swedish mortality register in subjects aged 45-74. Adjustment was made for prevalent cancer (identified from the Swedish cancer register) at the time of a suicide. RESULTS--A strong negative relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found in men during the first seven years of follow up. The relative risk in the lowest 25% of the cholesterol distribution was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 4.96) compared with the top 25%. Most of the excess risk was caused by suicide with a corresponding relative risk of 4.2 (p for trend = 0.001). Correction for prevalent cancer did not change the results. Events occurring during the latter two thirds of the 20.5 years of follow up were not predicted. In women no relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found. CONCLUSIONS--Together with observations from intervention trials the findings support the existence of a relation between serum cholesterol concentration and suicide. The causality of such a relation is, however, not resolved.     

Mortality associated with HIV-1 infection over five years in a rural Ugandan population: cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of HIV-1 infection on mortality over five years in a rural Ugandan population. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study followed up annually by a house to house census and medical survey. SETTING: Rural population in south west Uganda. SUBJECTS: About 10,000 people from 15 villages who were enrolled in 1989-90 or later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of deaths from all causes, death rates, mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Of 9777 people resident in the study area in 1989-90, 8833 (90%) had an unambiguous result on testing for HIV-1 antibody; throughout the period of follow up adult seroprevalence was about 8%. During 35,083 person years of follow up, 459 deaths occurred, 273 in seronegative subjects and 186 in seropositive subjects, corresponding to standardised death rates of 8.1 and 129.3 per 1000 person years. Standardised death rates for adults were 10.4 (95% confidence interval 9.0 to 11.8) and 114.0 (93.2 to 134.8) per 1000 person years respectively. The mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection was 41% for adults and was in excess of 70% for men aged 25-44 and women aged 20-44 years. Median survival from time of enrollment was less than three years in subjects aged 55 years or more who were infected with HIV-1. Life expectancy from birth in the total population resident at any time was estimated to be 42.5 years (41.4 years in men; 43.5 years in women), which compares with 58.3 years (56.5 years in men; 60.5 years in women) in people known to be seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that in a rural African population HIV-1 infection is associated with high death rates and a substantial reduction in life expectancy.     

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Background

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed—at the population level—whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually.Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60–0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

Conclusions

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female–male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.     

Unrecognised HIV related deaths.

OBJECTIVES--To establish whether follow up of deaths from selected HIV related causes could increase the number of cases of HIV infection reported to the Public Health Laboratory Service Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC), and to estimate the proportion of deaths among HIV positive men that occurred in men who were not known to be HIV positive at the time of death by the person who signed the death certificate. DESIGN--Follow up of draft death entries received by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys on which one of 11 medical or external causes likely to be related to HIV was stated; letters were sent to the people who signed the certificates. The respondents were invited to report men known to have been HIV positive who were not already on the CDSC register. SETTING--England and Wales. SUBJECTS--Men aged 15-54 who died in February 1989 to July 1989 with one of the 11 selected HIV related diseases as cause of death on their death certificates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Number of men reported to the CDSC as a result of this follow up; estimate of excess deaths due to an HIV related cause; estimate of the proportion of excess deaths that occurred in those who were not known to be HIV positive at the time of death. RESULTS--Replies were received for 473 deaths (86%). Forty were for men known to have been HIV positive, 31 of whom had been reported to CDSC by the time they died; six were subsequently reported. The respondent did not know that the decreased was HIV positive for 20 (35%) of the 57 excess deaths in men for whom one of the medical causes was stated and 41 (93%) of the 44 excess deaths in men for whom one of the external causes was stated. CONCLUSION--Follow up of death registrations is not an efficient way of increasing the number of cases of HIV infection reported to CDSC. Between 35% and 60% of HIV positive people for whom certain causes are stated may be dying without HIV positivity having been diagnosed. There may be implications for those caring for people with these conditions and those who carry out postmortem examinations.     

Occupational Toxic Factor in Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease

Between 1933 and 1962 42% of 223 deaths of male workers exposed to carbon disulphide in three viscose rayon factories in England and Wales were certified to coronary heart disease—compared with 24% of the deaths in the other workers of the same age, 17% of the deaths in other local men, and 14% in the Registrar General''s Tables. Of men with more than 10 years in the rayon industry employed in one of the factories, those exposed to carbon disulphide had death rates from coronary heart disease between 1950 and 1964 two and a half times that of the other workers.This evidence of an occupational risk of coronary heart disease from long-term exposure to low concentrations of CS₂ was strongest in the 1940s and slight in 1958–62, and it may relate to wartime plant conditions. Current and prospective biochemical and morbidity surveys of exposed workers are now needed. These may also throw light on general issues of atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease.     

Paediatric home nursing scheme in Gateshead.

A scheme to provide specialised nursing care for sick children in their own homes was begun in Gateshead in 1974. Selected district nurses were retrained in the paediatric unit on which the scheme was based and nursed at home 22 children referred to them by general practitioners as the alternative to hospital admission and 39 discharged to their care by the hospital. Most of the children were aged 3 years or less and came from working-class homes. Most of the mothers who were asked were in favour of the scheme.     

Genetic and environmental influences on expression of recurrent headache as a function of the reporting age in twins.

To explore age-related mechanisms in the expression of recurrent headache, we evaluated whether genetic and environmental influences are a function of the reporting age using questionnaire information that was gathered in 1973 for 15- to 47-year-old Swedish twins (n = 12,606 twin pairs). Liability to mixed headache (mild migraine and tension-type headache) was explained by non-additive genetic influences (49%) in men aged from 15 to 30 years and additive genetic plus shared environmental influences (28%) in men aged from 31 to 47 years. In women, the explained proportion of variance, which was mainly due to additive genetic effects, ranged from 61% in adolescent twins to 12% in twins aged from 41 to 47 years, whereas individual specific environmental variance was significantly lower in twins aged from 15 to 20 years than in twins aged from 21 to 30 years. Liability to migrainous headache (more severe migraine) was explained by non-additive genetic influences in men, 32% in young men and 45% in old men, while total phenotypic variance was significantly lower in young men than in old men. In women, the explained proportion of variance ranged from 91% in the youngest age group to 37% in the oldest age group, with major contributions from non-additive effects in young and old women (15-20 years and 41-47 years, respectively) and additive genetic effects in intermediate age groups (21-40 years). While total variance showed a positive age trend, genetic variance tended to be stable across age groups, whereas individual specific environmental variance was significantly lower in adolescent women as compared to older women.     

Legal abortions among teenagers in Canada, 1974 through 1978.

Between August 1969, when the amendment to the Criminal Code went into effect, and December 1978 about 397 000 legal abortions were performed in hospitals with therapeutic abortion committees in Canada. During the 5-year period 1974-78 abortions in females under 20 years of age accounted for 30.9% of all the legal abortions performed in Canada on Canadian residents, and the abortion rate per 1000 women aged 15 to 19 years increased from 13.6 to 16.3. During 1974-77 the proportion of women in whom the gestation period was more than 12 weeks at the time of abortion was 25.3% for teenagers (females under 20 years of age) but only 14.6% for women aged 20 years or over. In 1976 the teenage abortion rate was lower in Canada (14.5) than in the United States (36.2%), Sweden (28.5), Hungary (26.4), Denmark (26.0), Norway (22.7), Finland (20.3), and England and Wales (15.4).