The Brazil SimSmoke Policy Simulation Model: The Effect of Strong Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in a Middle Income Nation

Background

Brazil has reduced its smoking rate by about 50% in the last 20 y. During that time period, strong tobacco control policies were implemented. This paper estimates the effect of these stricter policies on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality, and the effect that additional policies may have.

Methods and Findings

The model was developed using the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model. Using policy, population, and smoking data for Brazil, the model assesses the effect on premature deaths of cigarette taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, marketing restrictions, packaging requirements, cessation treatment programs, and youth access restrictions. We estimate the effect of past policies relative to a counterfactual of policies kept to 1989 levels, and the effect of stricter future policies. Male and female smoking prevalence in Brazil have fallen by about half since 1989, which represents a 46% (lower and upper bounds: 28%–66%) relative reduction compared to the 2010 prevalence under the counterfactual scenario of policies held to 1989 levels. Almost half of that 46% reduction is explained by price increases, 14% by smoke-free air laws, 14% by marketing restrictions, 8% by health warnings, 6% by mass media campaigns, and 10% by cessation treatment programs. As a result of the past policies, a total of almost 420,000 (260,000–715,000) deaths had been averted by 2010, increasing to almost 7 million (4.5 million–10.3 million) deaths projected by 2050. Comparing future implementation of a set of stricter policies to a scenario with 2010 policies held constant, smoking prevalence by 2050 could be reduced by another 39% (29%–54%), and 1.3 million (0.9 million–2.0 million) out of 9 million future premature deaths could be averted.

Conclusions

Brazil provides one of the outstanding public health success stories in reducing deaths due to smoking, and serves as a model for other low and middle income nations. However, a set of stricter policies could further reduce smoking and save many additional lives. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Genital Chlamydia Prevalence in Europe and Non-European High Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures.

Methods

We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I² statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Meta-regression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates.

Results

We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18–26 years (response rates 52–71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0–5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I² 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4–7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I² 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I² 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p = 0.003 in women, 0.018 in men).

Conclusions

Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries.     

Smoking behaviour, involuntary smoking, attitudes towards smoke-free legislations, and tobacco control activities in the European Union

Background

The six most important cost-effective policies on tobacco control can be measured by the Tobacco Control Scale (TCS). The objective of our study was to describe the correlation between the TCS and smoking prevalence, self-reported exposure to secondhand smoke (SHS) and attitudes towards smoking restrictions in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU27).

Methods/Principal Findings

Ecologic study in the EU27. We used data from the TCS in 2007 and from the Eurobarometer on Tobacco Survey in 2008. We analysed the relations between the TCS and prevalence of smoking, self-reported exposure to SHS (home and work), and attitudes towards smoking bans by means of scatter plots and Spearman rank-correlation coefficients (r_sp). Among the EU27, smoking prevalence varied from 22.6% in Slovenia to 42.1% in Greece. Austria was the country with the lowest TCS score (35) and the UK had the highest one (93). The correlation between smoking prevalence and TCS score was negative (r_sp = −0.42, p = 0.03) and the correlation between TCS score and support to smoking bans in all workplaces was positive (r_sp = 0.47, p = 0.01 in restaurants; r_sp = 0.5, p = 0.008 in bars, pubs, and clubs; and r_sp = 0.31, p = 0.12 in other indoor workplaces). The correlation between TCS score and self-reported exposure to SHS was negative, but statistically non-significant.

Conclusions/Significance

Countries with a higher score in the TCS have higher support towards smoking bans in all workplaces (including restaurants, bars, pubs and clubs, and other indoor workplaces). TCS scores were strongly, but not statistically, associated with a lower prevalence of smokers and a lower self-reported exposure to SHS.     

Parental Smoking in the Vicinity of Children and Tobacco Control Policies in the European Region

Objective

To ascertain patterns of parental smoking in the vicinity of children in Eastern and Western Europe and their relation to Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) scores.

Methods

Data on parental smoking patterns were obtained from the School Child Mental Health Europe (SCMHE), a 2010 cross-sectional survey of 5141 school children aged 6 to 11 years and their parents in six countries: Germany, Netherlands, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey ranked by TCS into three level categories toward tobacco control policies.

Results

A slightly higher proportion of Eastern compared to Western European mothers (42.4 vs. 35.1%) were currently smoking in but the difference was not statistically significant after adjusting for maternal age and maternal educational attainment. About a fifth (19.3%) and a tenth (10.0%) of Eastern and Western European mothers, respectively, smoked in the vicinity of their children, and the difference was significant even after adjustment for potential confounders (p<0.001). Parents with the highest educational attainment were significantly less likely to smoke in the vicinity of their children than those with the lowest attainment. After control of these covariates lax tobacco control policies, compared to intermediate policies, were associated with a 50% increase in the likelihood of maternal smoking in the vicinity of children adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.52 and 1.64. Among fathers, however, the relationship with paternal smoking and TCS seems more complex since strict policy increases the risk as well AOR = 1,40. Only one country, however belongs to the strict group.

Significance

Tobacco control policies seem to have influenced maternal smoking behaviors overall to a limited degree and smoking in the vicinity of children to a much greater degree. Children living in European countries with lax tobacco control policies are more likely to be exposed to second hand smoking from maternal and paternal smoking.     

The Effect of Tobacco Control Measures during a Period of Rising Cardiovascular Disease Risk in India: A Mathematical Model of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

We simulated tobacco control and pharmacological strategies for preventing cardiovascular deaths in India, the country that is expected to experience more cardiovascular deaths than any other over the next decade.

Methods and Findings

A microsimulation model was developed to quantify the differential effects of various tobacco control measures and pharmacological therapies on myocardial infarction and stroke deaths stratified by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2013 to 2022. The model incorporated population-representative data from India on multiple risk factors that affect myocardial infarction and stroke mortality, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease. We also included data from India on cigarette smoking, bidi smoking, chewing tobacco, and secondhand smoke. According to the model''s results, smoke-free legislation and tobacco taxation would likely be the most effective strategy among a menu of tobacco control strategies (including, as well, brief cessation advice by health care providers, mass media campaigns, and an advertising ban) for reducing myocardial infarction and stroke deaths over the next decade, while cessation advice would be expected to be the least effective strategy at the population level. In combination, these tobacco control interventions could avert 25% of myocardial infarctions and strokes (95% CI: 17%–34%) if the effects of the interventions are additive. These effects are substantially larger than would be achieved through aspirin, antihypertensive, and statin therapy under most scenarios, because of limited treatment access and adherence; nevertheless, the impacts of tobacco control policies and pharmacological interventions appear to be markedly synergistic, averting up to one-third of deaths from myocardial infarction and stroke among 20- to 79-y-olds over the next 10 y. Pharmacological therapies could also be considerably more potent with further health system improvements.

Conclusions

Smoke-free laws and substantially increased tobacco taxation appear to be markedly potent population measures to avert future cardiovascular deaths in India. Despite the rise in co-morbid cardiovascular disease risk factors like hyperlipidemia and hypertension in low- and middle-income countries, tobacco control is likely to remain a highly effective strategy to reduce cardiovascular deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Patterns of Adherence to and Compliance with the Portuguese Smoke-Free Law in the Leisure-Hospitality Sector

Background

In 2008, the Portuguese smoke-free law came into effect including partial bans in the leisure-hospitality (LH) sector. The objective of the study is to assess the prevalence of smoking control policies (total ban, smoking permission and designated smoking areas) adopted by the LH sector in Portugal. The levels of noncompliance with each policy are investigated as well as the main factors associated with smoking permission and noncompliance with the law.

Methods

Cross-sectional study conducted between January 2010 and May 2011. A random sample of venues was selected from the Portuguese LH sector database, proportionally stratified according to type, size and geographical area. All venues were assessed in loco by an observer. The independent effects of venues'' characteristics on smoking permission and the level of noncompliance with the law were explored using logistic regression.

Results

Overall, 1.412 venues were included. Total ban policy was adopted by 75.9% of venues, while 8.4% had designated smoking areas. Smoking ban was more prevalent in restaurants (85.9%). Only 29.7% of discos/bars/pubs opted for complete ban. Full or partial smoking permission was higher in discos/bar/pubs (OR = 7.37; 95%CI 4.87 to 11.17). Noncompliance with the law was higher in venues allowing smoking and lower in places with complete ban (33.6% and 7.6% respectively, p<0.001). Discos/bars/pubs with full smoking permission had the highest level of noncompliance (OR = 3.31; 95%CI 1.40 to 7.83).

Conclusions

Our findings show a high adherence to smoking ban policy by the Portuguese LH sector. Nonetheless, one quarter of the venues is fully or partially permissive towards smoking, with the discos/bars/pubs considerably contributing to this situation. Venues with smoking permission policies were less compliant with the legislation. The implementation of a comprehensive smoke-free law, without any exceptions, is essential to effectively protect people from the second hand smoke.     

Changes in the Prevalence of Tobacco Consumption and the Profile of Spanish Smokers after a Comprehensive Smoke-Free Policy

Background

A partial smoke-free regulation in Spain was introduced on January 1, 2006, which was subsequently amended to introduce a comprehensive smoke-free policy from 2 January 2011 onward. The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence of tobacco consumption in Spain and the profile of smokers before (2006) and after (2011) the comprehensive smoking ban passed in 2010.

Methods

Two independent, cross-sectional, population-based surveys were carried out among the adult (≥ 18 years old) Spanish population in 2006 and 2011 through telephone interviews. Both surveys used the same methods and questionnaire. Nicotine dependence was assessed with the Fagerström Test for nicotine dependence and readiness to quit according to the stages of change.

Results

The prevalence of tobacco consumption showed a nonsignificant decrease from 23.4% in 2006 to 20.7% in 2011. No changes were observed in nicotine dependence or readiness to quit. In 2011, most smokers (76%) showed low nicotine dependence and were mainly in the precontemplation stage (72%).

Conclusions

The prevalence of smokers has slightly decreased since the introduction of the total smoking ban in Spain. No differences were found in nicotine dependence or readiness to quit.     

Household environmental tobacco smoke and risks of asthma,wheeze and bronchitic symptoms among children in Taiwan

Background

Although studies show that maternal smoking during pregnancy increases the risks of respiratory outcomes in childhood, evidence concerning the effects of household environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure remains inconsistent.

Methods

We conducted a population-based study comprised of 5,019 seventh and eighth-grade children in 14 Taiwanese communities. Questionnaire responses by parents were used to ascertain children''s exposure and disease status. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the effects of ETS exposures on the prevalence of asthma, wheeze, and bronchitic symptoms.

Results

The lifetime prevalence of wheeze was 11.6% and physician-diagnosed asthma was 7.5% in our population. After adjustment for potential confounders, in utero exposure showed the strongest effect on all respiratory outcomes. Current household ETS exposure was significantly associated with increased prevalence of active asthma, ever wheeze, wheeze with nighttime awakening, and bronchitis. Maternal smoking was associated with the increased prevalence of a wide range of wheeze subcategories, serious asthma, and chronic cough, but paternal smoking had no significant effects. Although maternal smoking alone and paternal smoking alone were not independently associated with respiratory outcomes, joint exposure appeared to increase the effects. Furthermore, joint exposure to parental smoking showed a significant effect on early-onset asthma (OR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.00-4.02), but did not show a significant effect on late-onset asthma (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.36-3.87).

Conclusion

We concluded that prenatal and household ETS exposure had significant adverse effects on respiratory health in Taiwanese children.     

A longitudinal study of medicaid coverage for tobacco dependence treatments in Massachusetts and associated decreases in hospitalizations for cardiovascular disease

Background

Insurance coverage of tobacco cessation medications increases their use and reduces smoking prevalence in a population. However, uncertainty about the impact of this coverage on health care utilization and costs is a barrier to the broader adoption of this policy, especially by publicly funded state Medicaid insurance programs. Whether a publicly funded tobacco cessation benefit leads to decreased medical claims for tobacco-related diseases has not been studied. We examined the experience of Massachusetts, whose Medicaid program adopted comprehensive coverage of tobacco cessation medications in July 2006. Over 75,000 Medicaid subscribers used the benefit in the first 2.5 years. On the basis of earlier secondary survey work, it was estimated that smoking prevalence declined among subscribers by 10% during this period.

Methods and Findings

Using claims data, we compared the probability of hospitalization prior to use of the tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit with the probability of hospitalization after benefit use among Massachusetts Medicaid beneficiaries, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, seasonality, influenza cases, and the implementation of the statewide smoke-free air law using generalized estimating equations. Statistically significant annualized declines of 46% (95% confidence interval 2%–70%) and 49% (95% confidence interval 6%–72%) were observed in hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction and other acute coronary heart disease diagnoses, respectively. There were no significant decreases in hospitalizations rates for respiratory diagnoses or seven other diagnostic groups evaluated.

Conclusions

Among Massachusetts Medicaid subscribers, use of a comprehensive tobacco cessation pharmacotherapy benefit was associated with a significant decrease in claims for hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and acute coronary heart disease, but no significant change in hospital claims for other diagnoses. For low-income smokers, removing the barriers to the use of smoking cessation pharmacotherapy has the potential to decrease short-term utilization of hospital services. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

A Prospective Study of Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Bangladesh

Background

Limited data are available on smoking-related mortality in low-income countries, where both chronic disease burden and prevalence of smoking are increasing.

Methods

Using data on 20, 033 individuals in the Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS) in Bangladesh, we prospectively evaluated the association between tobacco smoking and all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease mortality during ∼7.6 years of follow-up.Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for deaths from all-cause, cancer, CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke, in relation to status, duration, and intensity of cigarette/bidi and hookah smoking.

Results

Among men, cigarette/bidi smoking was positively associated with all-cause (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.06 1.86) and cancer mortality (HR 2.91, 1.24 6.80), and there was a dose-response relationship between increasing intensity of cigarette/bidi consumption and increasing mortality. An elevated risk of death from ischemic heart disease (HR 1.87, 1.08 3.24) was associated with current cigarette/bidi smoking. Among women, the corresponding HRs were 1.65 (95% CI 1.16 2.36) for all-cause mortality and 2.69 (95% CI 1.20 6.01) for ischemic heart disease mortality. Similar associations were observed for hookah smoking. There was a trend towards reduced risk for the mortality outcomes with older age at onset of cigarette/bidi smoking and increasing years since quitting cigarette/bibi smoking among men. We estimated that cigarette/bidi smoking accounted for about 25.0% of deaths in men and 7.6% in women.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking was responsible for substantial proportion of premature deaths in the Bangladeshi population, especially among men. Stringent measures of tobacco control and cessation are needed to reduce tobacco-related deaths in Bangladesh.     

Social determinants of health and tobacco use in thirteen low and middle income countries: evidence from Global Adult Tobacco Survey

Background

Tobacco use has been identified as the single biggest cause of inequality in morbidity. The objective of this study is to examine the role of social determinants on current tobacco use in thirteen low-and-middle income countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used nationally representative data from the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) conducted during 2008–2010 in 13 low-and-middle income countries: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay, and Viet Nam. These surveys provided information on 209,027 respondent''s aged 15 years and above and the country datasets were analyzed individually for estimating current tobacco use across various socio-demographic factors (gender, age, place of residence, education, wealth index, and knowledge on harmful effects of smoking). Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to predict the impact of these determinants on current tobacco use status. Current tobacco use was defined as current smoking or use of smokeless tobacco, either daily or occasionally. Former smokers were excluded from the analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for current tobacco use after controlling other cofactors, was significantly higher for males across all countries and for urban areas in eight of the 13 countries. For educational level, the trend was significant in Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Philippines and Thailand demonstrating decreasing prevalence of tobacco use with increasing levels of education. For wealth index, the trend of decreasing prevalence of tobacco use with increasing wealth was significant for Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay and Viet Nam. The trend of decreasing prevalence with increasing levels of knowledge on harmful effects of smoking was significant in China, India, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, Thailand, Ukraine and Viet Nam.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings demonstrate a significant but varied role of social determinants on current tobacco use within and across countries.     

Socioeconomic inequality in smoking in low-income and middle-income countries: results from the world health survey

Objectives

To assess the magnitude and pattern of socioeconomic inequality in current smoking in low and middle income countries.

Methods

We used data from the World Health Survey [WHS] in 48 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate the crude prevalence of current smoking according to household wealth quintile. A Poisson regression model with a robust variance was used to generate the Relative Index of Inequality [RII] according to wealth within each of the countries studied.

Results

In males, smoking was disproportionately prevalent in the poor in the majority of countries. In numerous countries the poorest men were over 2.5 times more likely to smoke than the richest men. Socioeconomic inequality in women was more varied showing patterns of both pro-rich and pro-poor inequality. In 20 countries pro-rich relative socioeconomic inequality was statistically significant: the poorest women had a higher prevalence of smoking compared to the richest women. Conversely, in 9 countries women in the richest population groups had a statistically significant greater risk of smoking compared to the poorest groups.

Conclusion

Both the pattern and magnitude of relative inequality may vary greatly between countries. Prevention measures should address the specific pattern of smoking inequality observed within a population.     

Comparison of tobacco control scenarios: quantifying estimates of long-term health impact using the DYNAMO-HIA modeling tool

Background

There are several types of tobacco control interventions/policies which can change future smoking exposure. The most basic intervention types are 1) smoking cessation interventions 2) preventing smoking initiation and 3) implementation of a nationwide policy affecting quitters and starters simultaneously. The possibility for dynamic quantification of such different interventions is key for comparing the timing and size of their effects.

Methods and Results

We developed a software tool, DYNAMO-HIA, which allows for a quantitative comparison of the health impact of different policy scenarios. We illustrate the outcomes of the tool for the three typical types of tobacco control interventions if these were applied in the Netherlands. The tool was used to model the effects of different types of smoking interventions on future smoking prevalence and on health outcomes, comparing these three scenarios with the business-as-usual scenario. The necessary data input was obtained from the DYNAMO-HIA database which was assembled as part of this project. All smoking interventions will be effective in the long run. The population-wide strategy will be most effective in both the short and long term. The smoking cessation scenario will be second-most effective in the short run, though in the long run the smoking initiation scenario will become almost as effective. Interventions aimed at preventing the initiation of smoking need a long time horizon to become manifest in terms of health effects. The outcomes strongly depend on the groups targeted by the intervention.

Conclusion

We calculated how much more effective the population-wide strategy is, in both the short and long term, compared to quit smoking interventions and measures aimed at preventing the initiation of smoking. By allowing a great variety of user-specified choices, the DYNAMO-HIA tool is a powerful instrument by which the consequences of different tobacco control policies and interventions can be assessed.     

Geospatial Analysis on the Distributions of Tobacco Smoking and Alcohol Drinking in India

Background

Tobacco smoking and binge alcohol drinking are two of the leading risk factors for premature mortality worldwide. In India, studies have examined the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking only at the state-level; sub-state variations and the spatial association between the two consumptions are poorly understood.

Methodology

We used data from the Special Fertility and Mortality Survey conducted in 1998 to examine the geographic distributions of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking at the district and postal code levels. We used kriging interpolation to generate smoking and drinking distributions at the postal code level. We also examined spatial autocorrelations and identified spatial clusters of high and low prevalence of smoking and drinking. Finally, we used bivariate analyses to examine the spatial correlations between smoking and drinking, and between cigarette and bidi smoking.

Results

There was a high prevalence of any smoking in the central and northeastern states, and a high prevalence of any drinking in Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and eastern Madhya Pradesh. Spatial clusters of early smoking (started smoking before age 20) were identified in the central states. Cigarette and bidi smoking showed distinctly different geographic patterns, with high levels of cigarette smoking in the northeastern states and high levels of bidi smoking in the central states. The geographic pattern of bidi smoking was similar to early smoking. Cigarette smoking was spatially associated with any drinking. Smoking prevalences in 1998 were correlated with prevalences in 2004 at the district level and 2010 at the state level.

Conclusion

These results along with earlier evidence on the complementarities between tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking suggest that local public health action on smoking might also help to reduce alcohol consumption, and vice versa. Surveys that properly represent tobacco and alcohol consumptions at the district level are recommended.     

Smoking Prevalence among Migrants in the US Compared to the US-Born and the Population in Countries of Origin

Objectives

Smoking among migrants is known to differ from the host population, but migrants’ smoking is rarely ever compared to the prevalence of smoking in their country of origin. The goal of this study is to compare the smoking prevalence among migrants to that of both the US-born population and the countries of origin. Further analyses assess the influence of sex, age at time of entry to the US and education level.

Methods

Data of 248,726 US-born and migrants from 14 countries were obtained from the Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) from 2006–2007. Data on 108,653 respondents from the corresponding countries of origin were taken from the World Health Survey (WHS) from 2002–2005.

Results

The prevalence of smoking among migrants (men: 14.2%, women: 4.1%) was lower than both the US-born group (men: 21.4%, women: 18.1%) and countries of origin (men: 39.4%, women: 11.0%). The gender gap among migrants was smaller than in the countries of origin. Age at time of entry to the US was not related to smoking prevalence for migrants. The risk of smoking for high-educated migrants was closer to their US counterparts.

Conclusions

The smoking prevalence among migrants is consistently lower than both the country of origin levels and the US level. The theory of segmented assimilation is supported by some results of this study, but not all. Other mechanisms that might influence the smoking prevalence among migrants are the ‘healthy migrant effect’ or the stage of the smoking epidemic at the time of migration.     

How Can Inequalities in Mortality Be Reduced? A Quantitative Analysis of 6 Risk Factors in 21 European Populations

Background

Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are one of the greatest challenges for health policy in all European countries, but the potential for reducing these inequalities is unclear. We therefore quantified the impact of equalizing the distribution of six risk factors for mortality: smoking, overweight, lack of physical exercise, lack of social participation, low income, and economic inactivity.

Methods

We collected and harmonized data on mortality and risk factors by educational level for 21 European populations in the early 2000s. The impact of the risk factors on mortality in each educational group was determined using Population Attributable Fractions. We estimated the impact on inequalities in mortality of two scenarios: a theoretical upward levelling scenario in which inequalities in the risk factor were completely eliminated, and a more realistic best practice scenario, in which inequalities in the risk factor were reduced to those seen in the country with the smallest inequalities for that risk factor.

Findings

In general, upward levelling of inequalities in smoking, low income and economic inactivity hold the greatest potential for reducing inequalities in mortality. While the importance of low income is similar across Europe, smoking is more important in the North and East, and overweight in the South. On the basis of best practice scenarios the potential for reducing inequalities in mortality is often smaller, but still substantial in many countries for smoking and physical inactivity.

Interpretation

Theoretically, there is a great potential for reducing inequalities in mortality in most European countries, for example by equity-oriented tobacco control policies, income redistribution and employment policies. Although it is necessary to achieve substantial degrees of upward levelling to make a notable difference for inequalities in mortality, the existence of best practice countries with more favourable distributions for some of these risk factors suggests that this is feasible.     

Prevalence and Correlates of Smokeless Tobacco Consumption among Married Women in Rural Bangladesh

Objective

To estimate the prevalence and identify correlates of smokeless tobacco consumption among married rural women with a history of at least one pregnancy in Madaripur, Bangladesh.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey using an interviewer administered, pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire. All women living in the study area, aged 18 years and above with at least one pregnancy in their lifetime, who were on the electoral roll and agreed to participate were included in the study. Information on socio-demographic characteristics and smokeless tobacco consumption was collected. Smokeless tobacco consumption was categorized as ‘Current’, ‘Ever but not current’ and ‘Never’. Associations between smokeless tobacco consumption and the explanatory variables were estimated using simple and multiple binary logistic regression.

Results

8074 women participated (response rate 99.9%). The prevalence of ‘Current consumption’, ‘Ever consumption but not current’, and ‘Never consumption’ was 25%, 44% and 31%, respectively. The mean age at first use was 31.5 years. 87% of current consumers reported using either Shadapata or Hakimpuree Jarda. Current consumption was associated with age, level of education, religion, occupation, being an income earner, marital status, and age at first use of smokeless tobacco. After adjustment for demographic variables, current consumption was associated with being over 25 years of age, a lower level of education, being an income earner, being Muslim, and being divorced, separated or widowed.

Conclusion

The prevalence of smokeless tobacco consumption is high among rural women in Bangladesh and the age of onset is considerably older than that for smoking. Smokeless tobacco consumption is likely to be producing a considerable burden of non-communicable disease in Bangladesh. Smokeless tobacco control strategies should be implemented.     

Attributable causes of esophageal cancer incidence and mortality in china

Background

To estimate the contribution of tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake to esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We calculated the proportion of esophageal cancer attributable to four known modifiable risk factors [population attributable fraction (PAF)]. Exposure data was taken from meta-analyses and large-scale national surveys of representative samples of the Chinese population. Data on relative risks were also from meta-analyses and large-scale prospective studies. Esophageal cancer mortality and incidence came from the 3^rd national death cause survey and population-based cancer registries in China. We estimated that 87,065 esophageal cancer deaths (men 67,686; women: 19,379) and 108,206 cases (men: 83,968, women: 24,238) were attributable to tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake in China in 2005. About 17.9% of esophageal cancer deaths among men and 1.9% among women were attributable to tobacco smoking. About 15.2% of esophageal cancer deaths in men and 1.3% in women were caused by alcohol drinking. Low vegetable intake was responsible for 4.3% esophageal cancer deaths in men and 4.1% in women. The fraction of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to low fruit intake was 27.1% in men and 28.0% in women. Overall, 46% of esophageal cancers (51% in men and 33% in women) were attributable to these four modifiable risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake were responsible for 46% of esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China in 2005. These findings provide useful data for developing guidelines for esophageal cancer prevention and control in China.