Survival and cause-specific mortality of male wild turkeys across the southeastern United States

Estimating survival and cause-specific mortality of male eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) is important for understanding population dynamics and implementing appropriate harvest management. To better understand age-specific estimates of annual survival and harvest rates, we captured and marked male wild turkeys with leg bands (n = 311) or bands and transmitters (n = 549) in Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina, USA, during 2014–2022. We fitted time to event models to data from radio-marked birds to estimate cause-specific mortality and annual survival. We used band recovery models incorporating both band recovery and telemetry data to further investigate harvest rates and survival. Annual survival from known-fate models in hunted populations was 0.54 (95% CI = 0.49–0.59) for adults and 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81–0.92) for juveniles. Cause-specific mortality analysis produced an annual harvest estimate of 0.29 (95% CI = 0.24–0.33) for adults and 0.02 (95% CI = 0.01–0.03) for juveniles, whereas predation was 0.15 (95% CI = 0.10–0.20) and 0.12 (95% CI = 0.08–0.17), respectively. Annual survival for adult males in a non-hunted population was 0.83 (95% CI = 0.72–0.97). Survival rate was negatively correlated with harvest rate, indicating harvest was an additive mortality source. Annual survival from band recovery models was 0.40 (95% CI = 0.37–0.44) for adults and 0.88 (95% CI = 0.81– 0.93) for juveniles, whereas annual harvest estimates were 0.24 (95% CI = 0.23–0.25) for adults and 0.04 (95% CI = 0.03–0.05) for juveniles. Both models suggested no differences in annual survival across years or among study areas, which included privately owned and public properties. Harvest was an additive mortality source for male wild turkeys, suggesting that managers interested in increasing annual survival of adult males could consider ways of reducing harvest rates.     

Variation in spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys in New York,Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo) influence the number and proportion of adult males in the population and turkey population models have treated harvest as additive to other sources of mortality. Therefore, hunting regulations and their effect on spring harvest rates have direct implications for hunter satisfaction. We used tag recovery models to estimate survival rates, investigate spatial, temporal, and demographic variability in harvest rates, and assess how harvest rates may be related to management strategies and landscape characteristics. We banded 3,266 male wild turkeys throughout New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania during 2006–2009. We found little evidence that harvest rates varied by year or management zone. The proportion of the landscape that was forested within 6.5 km of the capture location was negatively related to harvest rates; however, even though the proportion forested ranged from 0.008 to 0.96 across our study area, this corresponded to differences in harvest rates of only 2–5%. Annual survival was approximately twice as high for juveniles as adults . In turn, spring harvest rates for adult turkeys were greater for adults than juveniles . We estimated the population of male turkeys in New York and Pennsylvania ranged from 104,000 to 132,000 in all years and ranged from 63,000 to 75,000 in Ohio. Because of greater harvest rates for adult males, the proportion of adult males in the population was less than in the harvest and ranged from 0.40 to 0.81 among all states and years. The high harvest rates observed for adults may be offset by greater recruitment of juveniles into the adult age class the following year such that these states can sustain high harvest rates yet still maintain a relative high proportion of adult males in the harvest and population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Occurrence and seasonal transmission of hematozoa in wild turkeys

The occurrence and seasonal patterns of transmission of the blood protozoa of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) were studied at Tallahala Wildlife Management Area (TWMA) (Jasper County, Mississippi, USA). Blood smears obtained from wild turkeys in winter, spring and summer, and from sentinel domestic turkeys throughout the year were examined for Haemoproteus meleagridis and Leucocytozoon smithi. Whole blood from wild turkeys captured in summer was subinoculated into malaria-free domestic turkey poults and recipient birds were examined for Plasmodium spp. The prevalence of H. meleagridis and L. smithi were not different (P greater than 0.05) between adults and juveniles or between male and female turkeys in any season. Leucocytozoon smithi was not detected in poults in summer or in juveniles examined in winter. Sentinel studies and information from wild birds revealed that transmission of H. meleagridis and L. smithi did not overlap. Haemoproteus meleagridis was transmitted from May through November, while L. smithi was transmitted only from January through April. The onset of transmission of H. meleagridis coincided with peak hatching (mid-May) and brood-rearing (May-November) of turkey poults. Plasmodium spp. were not found in turkeys from TWMA (n = 27) nor in birds from three widely separated counties (n = 28) in Mississippi.     

Survival and Recovery Rate of Canada Geese Staging in Interior Alaska

Abstract: Lesser Canada geese (Branta canadensis parvipes) are indistinguishable from other subspecies of small Canada geese on the wintering grounds using current survey methods. Consequently, managers are unable to adequately measure their abundance. Without direct estimates of abundance, researchers often use estimates of vital rates that influence abundance (e.g., annual survival) to monitor potential impact of harvest on the population. Based on capture and re-sighting data records of 567 geese marked from 1994 through 1998, we calculated annual survival and recovery rates for different age and sex classes of white-cheeked geese staging in interior Alaska. We compared those survival and recovery rates with those of other neck-collared white-cheeked geese. The best approximating model allowed survival to vary by age class while holding Seber's recovery probability (r̂) constant over sex, age class, and time. We estimated annual survival to be 0.49 (SE = 0.05) for hatch-year geese and 0.68 (SE = 0.03) for after-hatch-year geese based on the weighted average of all models with a change in Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and lack of fit < 4. Estimates of annual survival of white-cheeked geese in this study are among the lowest and recovery estimates are among the highest for migratory populations of neck-collared geese. Low survival estimates of Canada geese in our study suggest that harvest rates may be higher than in many other populations. Surveys to estimate abundance or other population parameters such as reproductive success and recruitment are necessary to determine whether this population is self-sustaining. Furthermore, we recommend monitoring abundance and harvest of small white-cheeked geese east and west of the Cascade Mountain Range separately to better determine harvest pressure on white-cheeked geese wintering east of the Cascades.     

An Integrated Population Model for Harvest Management of Atlantic Brant

Atlantic brant (Branta bernicla hrota) are important game birds in the Atlantic Flyway and several long-term monitoring data sets could assist with harvest management, including a count-based survey and demographic data. Considering their relative strengths and weaknesses, integrated analysis to these data would likely improve harvest management, but tools for integration have not yet been developed. Managers currently use an aerial count survey on the wintering grounds, the mid-winter survey, to set harvest regulations. We developed an integrated population model (IPM) for Atlantic brant that uses multiple data sources to simultaneously estimate population abundance, survival, and productivity. The IPM abundance estimates for data from 1975–2018 were less variable than annual mid-winter survey counts or Lincoln estimates, presumably reflecting better accounting for observer error and incorporation of demographic estimates by the IPM. Posterior estimates of adult survival were high (0.77–0.87), and harvest rates of adults and juveniles were positively correlated with more liberal hunting regulations (i.e., hunting days and the daily bag limit). Productivity was variable, with the percent of juveniles in the winter population ranging from 1% to >40%. We found no evidence for environmental relationships with productivity. Using IPM-predicted population abundances rather than mid-winter survey counts alone would have meant fewer annual changes to hunting regulations since 2004. Use of the IPM could improve harvest management for Atlantic brant by providing the ability to predict abundance before annual hunting regulations are set, and by providing more stable hunting regulations, with fewer annual changes. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Density-Dependent Harvest Modeling for the Eastern Wild Turkey

Abstract Many current wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvest models assume density-independent population dynamics. We developed an alternative model incorporating both nonlinear density-dependence and stochastic density-independent effects on wild turkey populations. We examined model sensitivity to parameter changes in 5% increments and determined mean spring and fall harvests and their variability in the short term (3 yr) and long term (10 yr) from proportional harvesting under these conditions. In the long term, population growth rates were most sensitive to poult:female ratios and the form of density dependence. The nonlinear density-dependent effect produced a population that maximized yield at 40% carrying capacity. The model indicated that a spring or fall proportional harvest could be maximized for fall harvest rates between 0% and 13% of the population, assuming a 15% spring male harvest and 5% spring illegal female kill. Combined spring and fall harvests could be maximized at a 9% fall harvest, under the same assumptions. Variability in population growth and harvest rates increased uncertainty in spring and fall harvests and the probability of overharvesting annual yield, with growth rate variation having the strongest effect. Model simulations suggested fall harvest rates should be conservative (≤9%) for most management strategies.     

Survival,fidelity, and recovery rates of white-winged doves in Texas

Management of migratory birds at the national level has historically relied on regulatory boundaries for definition of harvest restrictions and estimation of demographic parameters. Most species of migratory game birds are not expanding their ranges, so migratory corridors are approximately fixed. White-winged doves (Zenaida asiatica), however, have undergone significant variation in population structure with marked range expansion occurring in Texas, and range contraction in Arizona, during the last 30 years. Because >85% of white-winged dove harvest in the United States (approx. 1.3 million annually) now occurs in Texas, information on vital rates of expanding white-winged dove populations is necessary for informed management. We used band recovery and mark–recapture data to investigate variation in survival and harvest across 3 geographic strata for white-winged doves banded in the pre-hunting season in Texas during 2007–2010. We banded 60,742 white-winged doves, recovered 2,458 bands via harvest reporting, and recaptured 455 known-age birds between 2007 and 2010. The best supporting model found some evidence for geographic differences in survival rates among strata (A–C) in both hatch-year (juvenile; A = 0.205 [SE = 0.0476], B = 0.213 [SE = 0.0278], C = 0.364 [SE = 0.0254]) and after-hatch year (adult; A = 0.483 [SE = 0.0775], B = 0.465 [SE = 0.0366], C = 0.538 [SE = 0.251]) birds. White-winged doves had a low probability of moving among strata (0.009) or being recaptured (0.002) across all strata. Harvest recovery rates were concordant with estimates for other dove species, but were variable across geographic strata. Based on our results, harvest management strategies for white-winged doves in Texas and elsewhere should consider differences in population vital rates among geographic strata. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Loss of Butt-End Leg Bands on Male Wild Turkeys

ABSTRACT We estimated loss of butt-end leg bands on male wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo) captured in New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (USA) during December-March, 2006–2008. We used aluminum rivet leg bands as permanent marks to estimate loss of regular aluminum, enameled aluminum, anodized aluminum, and stainless steel butt-end leg bands placed below the spur. We used band loss information from 887 turkeys recovered between 31 days and 570 days after release (x̄ = 202 days). Band loss was greater for turkeys banded as adults (>1 yr old) than juveniles and was greater for aluminum than stainless steel bands. We estimated band retention was 79–96%, depending on age at banding and type of band, for turkeys recovered 3 months after release. Band retention was <50% for all age classes and band types 15 months after banding. We concluded that use of butt-end leg bands on male wild turkeys is inappropriate for use in mark-recapture studies.     

Interannual Variability in Survival Rates for Adult Female White-Tailed Deer

Adult female survival is an important component to population models and management programs for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), but short-term survival studies (1–3 yrs) may not accurately reflect the variation in interannual survival, which could alter management decisions. We monitored annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates of adult female white-tailed deer (n = 158) for 6 years (2010–2012, 2016–2018) in southern Delaware, USA. Annual survival rate differed among years. Survival rates (±SE) and mortality causes were similar in 3 years (2011 = 0.72 ± 0.08, 2017 = 0.68 ± 0.08, 2018 = 0.74 ± 0.09) and comparable to previous research from mixed forest-agricultural landscapes. A relatively low survival rate in 2010 (0.48 ± 0.11) was influenced by hunter harvest and potentially compounded by abnormally severe winter conditions in the prior year. A peracute outbreak of hemorrhagic disease occurred during summer 2012, resulting in an annual survival rate of 0.38 ± 0.11, and to our knowledge is the first reported case of a hemorrhagic disease outbreak in a monitored wild population with known fates. In 2016, we did not observe any harvest mortality, resulting in high annual survival (0.96 ± 0.04). Our results demonstrate the degree of variability in annual survival and cause-specific mortality rates within a population. We caution against the use of short-term survival studies to inform management decisions, particularly when incorporating survival data into population models or when setting harvest objectives. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Retention of butt-end aluminum leg bands by wild turkeys

We examined retention of butt-end aluminum leg bands on Rio Grande wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) captured in Texas and Kansas, USA, 2000–2009. We examined 187 recaptured or harvested radiotagged wild turkeys to determine band retention and modeled band retention with Program MARK. We did not detect differences in band retention among age and gender classes or that band retention probability was time dependent. We estimated monthly probability of band retention was 0.990 (SE = 0.002). Band retention probability was 0.971 (SE = 0.006) at 3 months post-banding and 0.864 (SE = 0.028) at 15 months post-banding. Butt-end aluminum leg band retention was not 100% for wild turkeys marked during our work; however, our band retention rates were 3.7–5.7 times greater than described previously. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Age-Specific Survival and Probable Causes of Mortality in Female Lesser Prairie-Chickens

ABSTRACT Long-term population declines and habitat reductions have increased concern over the status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus). Robust estimates of demographic parameters are essential for identifying population declines and planning effective management. We evaluated the effects of age and season on the survival of female lesser prairie-chickens at 2 sites in southwestern Kansas, USA. Using telemetry data from a 7-year field study (from 1997 to 2003), we estimated seasonal (Apr—Sep) and annual (Apr—Mar) survival. We also examined daily survival rates of females attending nests during the 26-day incubation period and young during the 14-day early brood-rearing period. We evaluated the probable mortality causes of radiomarked birds by examining evidence at recovery sites. We captured 227 female lesser prairie-chickens (87 yearlings, 117 ad, and 23 age undetermined) and fitted them with radiotransmitters. Estimates of 12-month survival were lower among yearlings (Ŝ₁₂ = 0.429, SE = 0.117) and adults at site I (Ŝ₁₂ > = 0.302, SE = 0.080) than among yearlings (Ŝ₁₂ = 0.588, SE = 0.100) and adults at site II (Ŝ₁₂ > = 0.438, SE = 0.083). The patterns in timing of mortality and age-specific 6-month survival were consistent with those of 12-month estimates at site I from 1998 to 2002, with a peak in mortality during May and June. Females tending to nests or to prefledged chicks had lower daily survival (DŜR_tend = 0.993, SE = 0.001) than females not involved in these activities (DŜR_{failedbreeder} = 0.997, SE = 0.002). We recorded 92 mortalities from April 1997 to March 2003, and 59% and 11% were attributed to predation by mammals and raptors, respectively. Our research suggests that predation during the nesting season can have a major impact on lesser prairie-chicken demography, and conservation efforts should focus on enhancing female survival during the nesting and brood-rearing seasons.     

Survival and cause-specific mortality of female Rocky Mountain elk exposed to human activity

Animal populations are becoming increasingly exposed to human activity as human populations expand and demand for energy resources (e.g., coal, oil and natural gas) increases. We initiated this study to document survival and cause-specific mortality patterns of female Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus) exposed to increasing levels of human activity. We fitted 184 females with VHF or GPS collars over 4 years and used the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to calculate annual survival rates. We used multinomial logistic regression to assess differences in cause-specific mortality and generalized linear mixed models to determine how probability of survival was structured during hunting season; both analyses examined a suite of 5 covariates (i.e., age, year, extent of space use, cover, and human footprint) as potentially influencing cause-specific mortality and survival probability. Annual probability of survival averaged 0.8 (±0.02 SE) over 4 years but averaged 0.91 (±0.03 SE) when harvest mortality was excluded, which was the most significant source of mortality in most years ( [`(x)] = 0.13 ±0.02 \textSE \bar{x} = 0.13 \pm 0.02\,{\text{SE}} ). We found no difference between cause-specific mortality sources relative to elk that survived during the hunting season (χ ₁₀² = 5.79, P = 0.832). The probability of a female surviving during hunting season was negatively influenced by age, year, extent of space use, cover, and human footprint. We found evidence that human activity may have influenced annual rates of natural survival (i.e., exclusive of hunting mortality) and probability of survival during the hunting season. We note that this study occurred largely on privately owned and managed residential and ranch land and focused on female elk; we acknowledge that survival rate and cause-specific patterns of mortality may vary as a function of land ownership (private vs. public), demographic status, and management and harvest practices. While temporal and spatial scales of 1 week may be sufficient to describe patterns of direct mortality during hunting season, broad temporal or spatial scale analyses may be needed to address natural mortality during other seasons.     

Land use and dispersal influence mortality in white-tailed deer

Restoring male age structure in white-tailed deer populations has become an important objective for many state agencies aimed at improving herd dynamics. Limiting mortality in the yearling (1–2 yr old) age class is a primary consideration, and regional differences in climate, habitat characteristics, hunting regulations, and hunter behavior complicate the understanding of how specific factors influence the risk of mortality. We used Cox proportional hazard modeling to determine the effects of body size, mean distance to road, dispersal behaviors, use of forested land, and use of land open to public hunting on the risk of mortality for a population of radio-collared, yearling males (n = 76) in Sussex County, Delaware, USA. Annual survival averaged 0.55 (95% CI = 0.45–0.68), with harvest accounting for 79% (26/33) of all mortalities. Measurements of body size (chest girth, shoulder height, and total length; cm) influenced dispersal probability but not dispersal distance. The best approximating model for mortality risk included a covariate for landownership, whereby mortality risk increased on public land. Among males who dispersed, longer-distance dispersal was associated with reduced mortality, which contradicts previous research describing dispersal as a high-risk behavior. The effect of landownership on mortality risk has not been previously identified, especially when regulations regarding harvest of yearling males are similar between landownership types. We observed annual survival rates of 0.69 (95% CI = 0.57–0.82) for deer apparently using private land exclusively during the hunting season, and 0.20 (95% CI = 0.11–0.48) for deer that used public land during the hunting season. Survival rates on private land were comparable to those of other regions actively managing male age structure. These results suggest survival of yearling males in the region is influenced by hunter harvest and the risks associated with dispersal may be minimal in areas where harvest pressure is low, although hunter harvest on public land may limit male age structure on a localized scale. © The Wildlife Society, 2019     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Banding data reveal bias in age‐class sampling of songbirds during spring migration

Population age structure and vital statistics are important for understanding songbird demography and for developing conservation strategies. Field‐based estimates of survival rates based on mark–recapture methods are conservative because they are constrained by problems associated with detection probabilities and emigration. However, data collected at bird‐banding stations during spring and fall migration can potentially provide useful demographic information. I used banding data collected over a 6‐yr period (2005–2010) at Long Point Bird Observatory on the north shore of Lake Erie in Ontario, Canada, and Powdermill Avian Research Center in southeastern Pennsylvania, U.S.A., to determine if banding records could be used to estimate vital statistics for several species of songbirds. As reported in previous studies, I found the proportion of juveniles captured during fall migration to be unrealistically high to be representative of true proportions, especially at Long Point. The proportion of juvenile songbirds captured remained implausibly high during spring migration, with related estimates of longevity and generation time implausibly low and of fecundity implausibly high. Based on apparent adult survival estimates from the literature that suggest an average age structure for songbirds of >55% adults and <45% juveniles, I found that capture rates for juveniles during spring migration were at least twice as high as that for adults. A slower pace of spring migration by juveniles likely accounts for some of this bias. Because the data cannot be assumed to represent unbiased samples with respect to the age structure of populations, my results indicate that banding data collected at bird‐banding stations during migration are not suitable for use in demographic studies.     

Nasal Discs and the Vital Rates of Lesser Scaup

Nasal discs have been used to identify ducks in studies of survival and reproduction. To date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of nasal-disc effects on the vital rates of wild ducks. We applied nasal discs to 603 juvenile and 784 adult lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) females from a population breeding in southwest Montana, USA, and released 1,399 juvenile and 71 adult females wearing only metal leg bands between June 2005 and September 2016. Using resighting, recapture, and hunter-recovery data collected from those individuals, we estimated survival and recovery probability with multistate capture-recapture models in Program MARK. We also assessed if recovery distance from our study site and pre-breeding and brood-rearing body condition were diminished for females wearing nasal discs. Model-averaged survival probabilities were 0.231 ± 0.035 (SE) for juveniles and 0.482 ± 0.019 for adults released with nasal discs. Survival was 1.8–3.4 times higher for females released with metal leg bands when compared to those released with nasal discs; survival of these juveniles was 0.433 ± 0.049 and 0.693 ± 0.039 for adults. We did not find evidence for recovery probability or recovery distance varying between females that wore nasal discs and those that did not. During the pre-breeding and brood-rearing seasons, we did not find females wearing nasal discs to be in lower body condition when compared to unmarked females. Our comprehensive assessment of nasal discs on wild lesser scaup suggests that survival probabilities estimated from nasal-marked study populations should be cautiously interpreted as minimum estimates. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Demographic Parameters of Rural and Urban Adult Resident Canada Geese in Georgia

ABSTRACT In many urban metropolitan areas, resident Canada goose (Branta canadensis) populations have grown to nuisance levels in spite of increasing harvest opportunity. To document differences in demographic parameters between urban and rural geese, I estimated probabilities of survival, recapture, recovery, and fidelity for adult resident Canada geese between 2001 and 2006 using banding, live recapture, and dead recovery data from 2 distinct banding locations in Georgia, USA. Adult survival rates were higher for urban geese (0.958, SE = 0.020) than for rural geese (0.682, SE = 0.049). Using estimated recovery probabilities of 0.505 (SE = 0.107) for urban and 0.463 (SE = 0.045) for rural geese, along with current estimates of crippling loss and reporting rate, the estimated mean harvest rate for urban geese was 0.029 (SE = 0.006) and for rural geese was 0.202 (SE = 0.020). Fidelity rates were similar between urban (0.730, SE = 0.033) and rural geese (0.713, SE = 0.069). This information suggests that urban segments of the Canada goose population have substantially higher survival than rural geese and are harvested at a very low rate, and that liberalizing hunting regulations may have little impact on Georgia's urban goose population. Wildlife managers may need to consider options other than sport hunting to control nuisance goose populations in urban areas.     

Increased rice flooding during winter explains the recent increase in the Pacific Flyway White‐fronted Goose Anser albifrons frontalis population in North America

Despite declines in numerous migratory bird populations due to global climate and landscape changes, the Pacific Flyway population of Greater White‐fronted Geese Anser albifrons frontalis in North America has flourished over recent decades. However, the demographic foundations of the population increase remain unclear, largely due to sparse data. In this study, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) to maximize information from multiple data sources including coordinated population survey, ring‐recovery and hunter‐harvested goose tail data. We estimated demographic parameters and assessed the role of several possible drivers of the observed population increase, including density‐dependent processes, agricultural land use change and climate conditions in both the wintering and the breeding season, while also accounting for the impacts of harvest. Non‐harvest survival of all geese was 0.83 (95% credible interval (CRI): 0.70–0.96) before legislation restricted post‐harvest rice field burning, and 0.98 (95% CRI: 0.94–1.0) afterwards. We detected a negative effect of density‐dependent processes and a positive effect of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation on non‐harvest survival with high certainty. Kill rates were 0.11 (95% CRI: 0.09–0.12) for adults (after hatch year) and 0.26 (95% CRI 0.21–0.31) for juveniles (hatch year), resulting in annual survival rates of 0.81 (95% CRI: 0.69–0.89) for adults and 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.56–0.76) for juveniles. The ratio of juvenile birds to adults in the population was on average 0.36 (95% CRI: 0.29–0.45) and was driven by negative density‐dependent processes with high certainty. Our results suggest that the ban on rice field burning and subsequent high frequency of flooding as an alternative rice decomposition practice was the primary driver of the Pacific white‐fronted Goose population increase. The effects of climate change and density dependence were not strong enough to suppress the benefit of flooded rice. Given sparse demographic data for Pacific white‐fronted Geese, we were only able to uncover drivers of demography using IPMs. We encourage practitioners with sparse data similarly to consider forming IPMs to determine the drivers and mechanisms for population change and to prioritize future data collection.     

Predicting Wood Duck Harvest Rates in Eastern North America

Abstract: We developed a method for predicting wood duck (Aix sponsa) harvest rates in eastern North America using waterfowl banding and recovery data, annual indices of hunter numbers, and harvest survey data from the United States and Canada. We predicted that under the current season length (60 days), if hunter numbers remain unchanged, increasing the wood duck bag limit from 2 to 3 would increase harvest of adult male wood ducks in the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways by 12.3%, causing an increase in harvest rate of 7.1% from 0.087 to 0.093. The Flyway Councils and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service can consider this information to predict the impacts of regulatory changes.     

Is hunting mortality additive or compensatory to natural mortality? Effects of experimental harvest on the survival and cause-specific mortality of willow ptarmigan

1. The effects of harvest on the annual and seasonal survival of willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus L. were tested in a large-scale harvest experiment. Management units were randomly assigned to one of three experimental treatments: 0%, 15% or 30% harvest. Seasonal quotas were based on the experimental treatment and estimates of bird density before the hunting season. Survival rates and hazard functions for radio-marked ptarmigan were then estimated under the competing risks of harvest and natural mortality. 2. The partially compensatory mortality hypothesis was supported: annual survival of ptarmigan was 0·54 ± 0·08 SE under 0% harvest, 0·47 ± 0·06 under 15% harvest, and was reduced to 0·30 ± 0·05 under 30% harvest. Harvest mortality increased linearly from 0·08 ± 0·05, 0·27 ± 0·05 and 0·42 ± 0·06 from 0% to 30% harvest, whereas natural mortality was 0·38 ± 0·08, 0·25 ± 0·05 and 0·28 ± 0·06 under the same treatments. 3. Realized risk of harvest mortality was 0·08-0·12 points higher than our set harvest treatments of 0-30% because birds were exposed to risk if they moved out of protected areas. The superadditive hypothesis was supported because birds in the 30% harvest treatment had higher natural mortality during winter after the hunting season. 4. Natural mortality was mainly because of raptor predation, with two seasonal peaks in fall and spring. Natural and harvest mortality coincided during early autumn with little potential for compensation during winter months. Peak risk of harvest mortality was 5× higher than natural mortality. Low natural mortality during winter suggests that most late season harvest would be additive mortality. 5. Environmental correlates of natural mortality of ptarmigan included seasonal changes in snow cover, onset of juvenile dispersal, and periods of territorial activity. Natural mortality of ptarmigan was highest during autumn movements and nesting by gyrfalcons Falco rusticolus L. Mortality was low when gyrfalcons had departed for coastal wintering sites, and during summer when ptarmigan were attending nests and broods. 6. Our experimental results have important implications for harvest management of upland gamebirds. Seasonal quotas based on proportional harvest were effective and should be set at ≤ 15% of August populations for regional management plans. Under threshold harvest of a reproductive surplus, 15% harvest would be sustainable at productivity rates ≥ 2·5 young per pair. Impacts of winter harvest could be minimized by closing the hunting season in early November or by reducing late season quotas.