Censusing chimpanzees in the Budongo Forest,Uganda

It is difficult to make valid comparisons of chimpanzee densities among sites because observers calculate them using different methods. We argue that nest count estimates of density are preferable to densities from home range estimates because of the problems of defining home range. There are many problems associated with nest count methods, some of which have not been addressed in previous studies. In 1992, we censused chimpanzees in the Budongo Forest using three methods;the standing crop nest count (SCNC), the marked nest count (MNC), and visual sightings of the animals (VS). Each method is based on standard line transect techniques. Of 96 nests monitored for decay rate,those constructed in the dry seasons decayed faster than those in the wet seasons. All- day follows of individual chimpanzees and observations of nesting chimpanzees at dusk showed that about 15.8% of night nests were reused,17.5% of the population did not build nests, and 18.8% of nests were first constructed as day nests. Given the variability in nest decay rates, we argue that MNC is a better method than SCNC because it avoids having to calculate decay rates.     

Factors Influencing the Survival of Sympatric Gorilla (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gorilla gorilla gorilla</Emphasis>) and Chimpanzee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes troglodytes</Emphasis>) Nests

Accurate and precise surveys of primate abundance provide the basis for understanding species ecology and essential information for conservation assessments. Owing to the elusive nature of wild apes and the vast region of dense forest they inhabit, population estimates of central chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) have largely relied on surveys of their nests. Specific information about the nesting behavior of apes permits the estimation of the number of nests built (nest creation rate). Similarly, information on nest characteristics and environmental factors can be used to estimate the time it takes nests to decay (nest decay rate). Nest creation and decay rates are then used to convert nest density estimates to absolute ape densities. Population estimates that use site-specific estimates of nest creation and decay rates are more accurate and precise. However, it is common practice to generalize these conversion factors across sites because of the additional cost of studies required to gather the information to estimate them. Over a 9-mo study period, we detected and monitored the time to decay of gorilla nests (N = 514) and chimpanzee nests (N = 521) in northern Republic of Congo. We investigated the influence of nest characteristics and environmental factors on nest survivorship and estimated the mean time to nest decay (or equivalently survival) using MARK. Key factors influencing nest decay rate included ape species, forest type, nest height, mean rainfall, nest structure, nest type, and primary aspects of nest construction. Our findings highlight the synergistic effect of behavior and environment on great ape nest degradation, as well as providing practical insights for improving measures to monitor remaining populations of these endangered species.     

Comparing ape densities and habitats in northern Congo: surveys of sympatric gorillas and chimpanzees in the Odzala and Ndoki regions

The conservation status of western lowland gorillas and central chimpanzees in western equatorial Africa remains largely speculative because many remote areas have never been surveyed and the impact of emergent diseases in the region has not been well documented. In this study, we compared ape densities and habitats in the Lokoué study area in Odzala National Park and the Goualougo Triangle in Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park in northern Republic of Congo. Both of these sites have long been considered strongholds for the conservation of chimpanzees and gorillas, but supposedly differ in vegetative composition and relative ape abundance. We compared habitats between these sites using conventional ground surveys and classified Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite images. We present density estimates via both standing-crop and marked-nest methods for the first time for sympatric apes of the Congo Basin. The marked-nest method was effective in depicting chimpanzee densities, but underestimated gorilla densities at both sites. Marked-nest surveys also revealed a dramatic decline in the ape population of Lokoué which coincided with a local Ebola epidemic. Normal baseline fluctuations in ape nest encounter rates during the repeated passages of marked-nest surveys were clearly distinguishable from a 80% decline in ape nest encounter rates at Lokoué. Our results showed that ape densities, habitat composition, and population dynamics differed between these populations in northern Congo. We emphasize the importance of intensifying monitoring efforts and further refinement of ape survey methods, as our results indicated that even the largest remaining ape populations in intact and protected forests are susceptible to sudden and dramatic declines.     

A simple alternative to line transects of nests for estimating orangutan densities

We conducted a validation of the line transect technique to estimate densities of orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) nests in a Bornean swamp forest, and compared these results with density estimates based on nest counts in plots and on female home ranges. First, we examined the accuracy of the line transect method. We found that the densities based on a pass in both directions of two experienced pairs of observers was 27% below a combined sample based on transect walks by eight pairs of observers, suggesting that regular line-transect densities may seriously underestimate true densities. Second, we compared these results with those obtained by nest counts in 0.2-ha plots. This method produced an estimated 15.24 nests/ha, as compared to 10.0 and 10.9, respectively, by two experienced pairs of observers who walked a line transect in both directions. Third, we estimated orangutan densities based on female home range size and overlap and the proportion of females in the population, which produced a density of 4.25–4.5 individuals/km² . Converting nest densities into orangutan densities, using locally estimated parameters for nest production rate and proportion of nest builders in the population, we found that density estimates based on the line transect results of the most experienced pairs on a double pass were 2.82 and 3.08 orangutans/km², based on the combined line transect data are 4.04, and based on plot counts are 4.30. In this swamp forest, plot counts therefore give more accurate estimates than do line transects. We recommend that this new method be evaluated in other forest types as well.     

Ape Abundance and Habitat Use in the Goualougo Triangle, Republic of Congo

Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) and western gorilla (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) populations in central Africa are rapidly declining as a result of disease epidemics, commercial bushmeat hunting, and habitat destruction. Our main objective was to estimate the absolute abundance and habitat utilization of chimpanzees and gorillas in the intact forests of the Goualougo Triangle in the Republic of Congo, and in an adjacent area in which selective logging will take place in the near future. The estimates provide a unique baseline for apes inhabiting an undisturbed environment. A second objective was to compare estimates of abundance and patterns of habitat utilization generated by different techniques: 1) distance sampling of individual ape nests and nest sites along line transects, 2) direct observations of apes during reconnaissance surveys, and 3) observations of ape traces during reconnaissance surveys. We completed a total of 222 km of line transect surveys in 4 sampling areas, resulting in overall density estimates of 1.53 chimpanzees/km² and 2.34 gorillas/km² from nest sites. We generated a density estimate of 2.23 chimpanzees/km² from direct observations during reconnaissance surveys of a semihabituated community in 1 of the 4 sampling areas. Habitat use profiles that nest surveys depicted on transects differed from those of direct observations and traces we encountered on reconnaissance surveys. We found the highest overall abundance of chimpanzee nests in monodominant Gilbertiodendron forest, whereas our direct observations showed that chimpanzees preferred mixed species forest. Transects that traversed the core area of the community range had the highest encounter rates of chimpanzee nests and nest sites. Gorilla nests on transects showed a preference only for mixed species forest with an open canopy, but direct observations and traces on reconnaissance surveys clearly indicated that gorillas use several habitat types. We conclude by evaluating the precision of these nest surveys and our ability to detect future trends in ape densities in the Goualougo Triangle.

Aerial surveys give new estimates for orangutans in Sabah, Malaysia

Great apes are threatened with extinction, but precise information about the distribution and size of most populations is currently lacking. We conducted orangutan nest counts in the Malaysian state of Sabah (North Borneo), using a combination of ground and helicopter surveys, and provided a way to estimate the current distribution and size of the populations living throughout the entire state. We show that the number of nests detected during aerial surveys is directly related to the estimated true animal density and that a helicopter is an efficient tool to provide robust estimates of orangutan numbers. Our results reveal that with a total estimated population size of about 11,000 individuals, Sabah is one of the main strongholds for orangutans in North Borneo. More than 60% of orangutans living in the state occur outside protected areas, in production forests that have been through several rounds of logging extraction and are still exploited for timber. The role of exploited forests clearly merits further investigation for orangutan conservation in Sabah.     

Pellet group count methods to estimate red deer densities: Precision,potential accuracy and efficiency

Pellet group count methods are key tools for wildlife conservation and management. Therefore, it is essential to clarify the performance and suitability of the different pellet group count methods at distinct realities. This issue has been discussed by other researchers but with inconsistent conclusions, leaving open the necessity of additional studies. Aiming to fill this need, we used a combination of field data and simulation models to evaluate the density estimates, precision and potential accuracy of the results obtained through each pellet group count method, and also the sampling effort and efficiency associated with them. The methods evaluated were standing crop plot counts (FSCP), clearance plot counts (FAR), standing crop strip transect counts (ST) and standing crop line transect counts (LT). Deer density estimates by the four methods were statistically similar at all effort levels simulated. The analyses of CV trends reveal a better precision supplied by FSCP than by FAR for the same effort, while ST and LT yielded comparable values in analogous situations. The time required to make a survey is a key factor in the choice of a field technique. LT with distance sampling was the most efficient method to count pellet groups, while FAR seems to be the less proficient method. Attending to the limitations usually inherent to field surveys, like time, technicians and budget, LT appeared more efficient than the other methods, providing great precision and accuracy in less time. Nevertheless, at high densities and pronounced habitat heterogeneity, FAR became more efficient than FSC, do not requiring the decay rates, allowing accurate estimates in a few months when applied with the proper effort and environmental conditions. This study highlights the importance of carrying out pilot studies and simulation models to evaluate the sampling design prior to its implementation in the field.     

Nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns: assessing bias and variation in survey timing and methods

Methods commonly used to estimate the number of nests and size of the breeding population at colonies of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) and other waterbirds include walk‐through counts of nests (ground‐nest counts) and counts of incubating adults from the colony perimeter (incubating‐adult counts). The bias and variance of different methods and the comparability of repeated surveys versus once‐annual censuses are poorly understood. Our objectives were to assess (1) the potential bias and variation of the more rapid incubating‐adult counts compared to the time‐intensive, and presumably more accurate, ground‐nest counts, and (2) how accurately a once‐annual census captured peak nesting abundance. We studied nine Least Tern colonies at Cape Lookout National Seashore (CALO), North Carolina, from April to August 2010–2012. We analyzed observer and survey method agreement with concordance correlation coefficients (ρ_c). We deployed time‐lapse cameras at 156 nests and used repeated‐measures logistic regression to determine if the proportion of time spent incubating varied with colony, time of day, or time of season. We found substantial agreement in abundance estimates of Least Tern nests and incubating adults between observers and survey methods, and among different times of day and seasons (all comparisons ρ_c > 0.97). Least Terns incubated eggs 94% of the time on average during daylight hours, irrespective of colony, nesting stage, or month. Although the nesting peak at CALO occurred during the recommended census period for Least Terns, abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during that period varied by as much as 39%. We recommend conducting incubating‐adult counts to estimate nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns or other waterbirds when vegetation or dunes do not obstruct views of nesting colonies. In addition, given the variation in abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during the recommended survey period, incubating‐adult counts should be performed at least twice during the census period, with the maximum count reported as peak nest abundance.     

Use of limestone karst forests by Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) in the Sangkulirang peninsula, east Kalimantan, Indonesia

The Indonesian province of East Kalimantan is home to some of the largest remaining contiguous tracts of lowland Dipterocarp forest on the island of Borneo. Nest surveys recently conducted in these forests indicated the presence of a substantial population of Eastern Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) in the Berau and East Kutai regencies in the northern half of the province. The Sangkulirang Peninsula contains extensive limestone karst forests in close proximity to the lowland Dipterocarp forests inhabited by orangutans in these regencies. Orangutans have been sighted in these limestone karst forests, but the importance of this forest type for orangutans has been unclear. Therefore, we conducted 49 km of nest surveys in limestone karst forest to obtain the first quantitative estimates of orangutan densities in this habitat, and walked 28 km of surveys in nearby lowland Dipterocarp forests for comparison. We also gathered basic ecological data along our transects in an attempt to identify correlates of orangutan abundance across these habitat types. Undisturbed limestone karst forests showed the lowest orangutan densities (147 nests/km(2), 0.82 indiv/km(2)), disturbed limestone forests had intermediate densities (301 nests/km(2), 1.40 indiv/km(2)), and undisturbed lowland Dipterocarp forests contained the highest density (987 nests/km(2), 5.25 indiv/km(2)), significantly more than the undisturbed limestone karst forests. This difference was not correlated with variation in liana abundance, fig stem density, or stump density (an index of forest disturbance). Therefore, other factors, such as the relatively low tree species diversity of limestone karst forests, may explain why orangutans appear to avoid these areas. We conclude that limestone karst forests are of low relevance for safeguarding the future of orangutans in East Kalimantan.     

The Influence of Transect Use by Local People and Reuse of Transects for Repeated Surveys on Nesting in Western Lowland Gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) and Central Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) in Southeast Cameroon

Monitoring populations of endangered species over time is necessary to guide and evaluate conservation efforts. This is particularly important for nonprotected areas that ensure connectivity between protected populations but are prone to uncontrolled hunting pressure. We investigated whether use of transects by local people and transect reuse for repeated surveys influence great ape nesting and bias results. We conducted simultaneous marked nest count surveys over 12 mo on established and newly opened transects in a nonprotected area subject to traditional heavy use by local people and recorded forest composition and signs of human activity. Chimpanzee and gorilla density estimates and encounter rates per kilometer were lower on established transects than on new ones. A generalized linear model indicated that hunting activity, distance to a regularly used forest trail, and transect type (old or new) predicted chimpanzee nest abundance, and distance to the trail and transect type predicted gorilla nest abundance, with no effect of habitat type (percentage suitable habitat) for either species. We, therefore, suggest that the difference in great ape nesting is a result of high levels of hunting by local people on established transects and forest trails. Our results support the use of repeated line transect surveys for monitoring great ape populations in many circumstances, although we advocate taking precautions in nonprotected areas, to avoid the bias imposed by use of established transects for hunting.     

Are nest-detection probability methods relevant for estimating turtle dove breeding populations? a case study in Moroccan agroecosystems

Knowing the population size of game is a basic prerequisite to determining adequate hunting management and conservation strategies and setting up appropriate hunting quotas. This study compared three methods complete count, capture–recapture and N-mixture modelling to estimate a turtle dove Streptopelia turtur breeding population using nest counts. We randomly sampled 143 fruit farms (60 orange orchards and 83 olive orchards) situated in an irrigated area in Morocco at the peak of breeding activity. We calculated the probability of detecting active turtle dove nests using information from two observers who independently searched the same sample plots. We found that (a) the capture–recapture method provided more precise results of nest abundance than N-mixture modelling, and that (b) the probability of nest detection was noticeably different between the two study orchards—higher in the orange orchards than in the olive orchards. Although these two methods are easy to implement and cost-effective for estimating population abundance on a large spatial scale, our results demonstrate that the resulting estimates are prone to bias depending on the tree height of the plantations. Of the three methods for estimating turtle dove abundance, complete counts were preferable for assessing population size. Using the complete counts, the density of turtle dove nests was found to be 2.96 nests/ha in the orange orchards and 0.93 nests/ha in the olive orchards. A density extrapolation to the entire surface area of the Tadla Region indicated a minimum breeding population size of 58,969 pairs (95 % confidence interval: 48,550–69,353).     

Assessing the accuracy of plotless density estimators using census counts to refine population estimates of the vultures of Kruger National Park

Breeding population estimates for three vulture species in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, were made in 2013 using data from aerial censuses and a plotless density estimator (PDE). PDEs are distance-based methods used to assess sparse populations unsuitable for plot-based methods. A correction factor was applied to the 2013 estimates to reflect the difference between the survey counts and the PDE figures. We flew additional censuses across most of KNP and counted all visible nests to assess the 2013 estimates. Survey counts were within 95% confidence limits of corrected PDE estimates for White-backed Vulture Gyps africanus (count: 892; estimate: 904 [95% CI ±162]), at the limit of confidence for White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis (count: 48; estimate: 60 [±13]) and outside confidence limits for Lappet-faced Vulture Torgos tracheliotos (count: 44; estimate: 78 [±18]). Uncorrected PDE estimates accurately reflected White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nest counts. The clustered patterns of White-backed Vulture nests and dispersed patterns of White-headed and Lappet-faced Vulture nests offer an explanation for these results and means that corrected PDE densities are inaccurate for estimating dispersed nests but accurate for estimating clustered nests. Using PDE methods, aerial surveys over ～35% of KNP are probably sufficient to assess changes in these vulture populations over time. Our results highlight these globally important breeding populations.     

Densities,Distributions, and Seasonal Movements of Gorillas and Chimpanzees in Swamp Forest in Northern Congo

The conservation of gorillas (Gorilla spp.) and chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) depends upon knowledge of their densities and distribution throughout their ranges. However, information about ape populations in swamp forests is scarce. Here we build on current knowledge of ape populations by conducting line transect surveys of nests throughout a reserve dominated by swamp forest: the Lac Télé Community Reserve in northern Congo. We estimated gorilla and chimpanzee densities, distributions across habitats, and seasonal changes in abundance. Gorilla density was 2.9 gorillas km^–2, but densities varied by habitat (0.3–5.4 gorillas km^–2) with highest densities in swamp forest and terra firma mixed forest. Average chimpanzee density is 0.7 chimpanzees km^–2 (0.1–1.3 chimpanzees km^–2), with highest densities in swamp forest. Habitat was the best predictor of ape nest abundance, as neither the number of human indices nor the distance from the nearest village predicted nest abundance. We recorded significantly greater numbers of apes in terra firma forest during the high-water season than the low-water season, indicating that many gorillas and chimpanzees are at times concentrated in terra firma forest amid a matrix of swamp forest. Seasonally high numbers of apes on terra firma forest islands easily accessible to local people may expose them to substantial hunting pressure. Conversely, the nearly impenetrable nature of swamp forests and their low value for logging makes them promising sites for the conservation of apes.     

Habitat use of Bornean Orangutans (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pongo pygmaeus morio</Emphasis>) in an Industrial Forestry Plantation in East Kalimantan,Indonesia

Many primates now live in anthropogenic landscapes dominated by human activity such as agriculture. Conserving primates in such contexts requires detailed information about habitat use, including landscape features that may influence population viability. We studied Northeast Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus morio) habitat use in a forestry plantation in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. We conducted camera trapping and nest surveys at 13 locations across three habitat types in the plantation (planted acacia stands, planted eucalyptus stands, and secondary forest patches left uncut or allowed to regenerate) September 2012–March 2013, and calculated four measures of orangutan abundance for each location (independent photo captures/100 camera trap days, or RAI₂; nest encounter rate; nest density; and orangutan density). Orangutans are relatively common in the plantation; they used all three habitat types and exhibited a higher RAI₂ than 70% of other mammal species detected. A logistic regression found that proximity to natural forest areas best predicted orangutan abundance calculated using camera trap data (RAI₂) but that habitat type combined with distance to natural forest best predicted orangutan abundance calculated using nest counts. This suggests that orangutans use planted areas for movement and feeding, but rely on patches of natural forest for resting and access to key resources. Our study and others indicate that orangutans can coexist with some human activities if provided with sufficient access to natural forest. However, we must conduct further research to facilitate effective conservation planning, including gathering additional details about habitat and resource use and possible long-term population impacts.     

A comparison of breeding population estimators using nest and brood monitoring data

For many species, breeding population size is an important metric for assessing population status. A variety of simple methods are often used to estimate this metric for ground‐nesting birds that nest in open habitats (e.g., beaches, riverine sandbars). The error and bias associated with estimates derived using these methods vary in relation to differing monitoring intensities and detection rates. However, these errors and biases are often difficult to obtain, poorly understood, and largely unreported. A method was developed to estimate the number of breeding pairs using counts of nests and broods from monitoring data where multiple surveys were made throughout a single breeding season (breeding pair estimator; BPE). The BPE method was compared to two commonly used estimation methods using simulated data from an individual‐based model that allowed for the comparison of biases and accuracy. The BPE method underestimated the number of breeding pairs, but generally performed better than the other two commonly used methods when detection rates were low and monitoring frequency was high. As detection rates and time between surveys increased, the maximum nest and brood count method performs similar to the BPE. The BPE was compared to four commonly used methods to estimate breeding pairs for empirically derived data sets on the Platte River. Based on our simulated data, we expect our BPE to be closest to the true number of breeding pairs as compared to other methods. The methods tested resulted in substantially different estimates of the numbers of breeding pairs; however, coefficients from trend analyses were not statistically different. When data from multiple nest and brood surveys are available, the BPE appears to result in reasonably precise estimates of numbers of breeding pairs. Regardless of the estimation method, investigators are encouraged to acknowledge whether the method employed is likely to over‐ or underestimate breeding pairs. This study provides a means to recognize the potential biases in breeding pair estimates.     

Using Dung to Estimate Gorilla Density: Modeling Dung Production Rate

There is an urgent need for information on western gorilla population sizes and distribution to improve present and plan future conservation actions. Researchers traditionally have estimated gorilla densities on the basis of nest counts despite demonstrated variation in nest production and decay rates. The variation may lead to large biases in estimates of gorilla abundance. We investigated the use of an alternate index of gorilla abundance, via defecation data collected from habituated gorillas at Bai Hokou, Central African Republic. Our sample of 274/370 defecation events/dung piles produced a production rate of ca. 5 dung piles/d: comparable to previous estimates based on much smaller sample sizes. Heuristic models that failed to account for imperfect dung pile detection produced a lower defecation rate estimate than that of a maximum likelihood model that explicitly modeled detection probability. Generalized linear modeling (GLM) showed that dung pile production rate was strongly linked to rainfall, suggesting that failure to correct for seasonal variation in dung pile production rates could lead to substantial biases in gorilla abundance estimates. In our study, failing to distinguish between the number of defecation events and the number of dung piles produced would lead to a ca. 31% overestimate of true gorilla numbers. The use of dung as an index of gorilla abundance shows potential, but more fieldwork and modeling on seasonal variation in dung production rates is required.     

Genetic identification of elusive animals: re-evaluating tracking and nesting data for wild western gorillas

Western gorillas Gorilla gorilla have been exceedingly difficult to habituate to the presence of human observers. Nevertheless, researchers have amassed a wealth of information on population densities and group structure for this ape species by locating and counting the sleeping nests of wild individuals. Such nest-count studies have suggested that western gorilla groups often have multiple silverbacks and these multimale groups occasionally divide into smaller subgroups. However, observational data from forest clearing sites and from a few recently habituated western gorilla groups show no evidence of multimale family groups or of subgrouping. This discrepancy underscores a long-standing question in ape research: How accurately do nesting sites reflect true group compositions? We evaluated these indirect measures of group composition by using DNA from faeces and hair to genetically identify individual gorillas at nesting sites. Samples were collected from unhabituated wild western gorillas ranging near Mondika Research Center in the Central African Republic and Republic of Congo. DNA extracted from these samples was genotyped at up to 10 microsatellite loci and one X–Y homologous locus for sex identification. Individuals were then identified at nesting sites by their unique multilocus genotypes, thus providing a 'molecular census' of individual gorillas. Results confirm that western gorillas often build more than one nest at a nesting site and, thus, nest counts can be highly inaccurate indicators of group size and composition. Indeed, we found that nest counts can overestimate group size by as much as 40%, indicating that true gorilla population numbers are probably lower than those reported from census surveys. This study demonstrates how genetic analysis can be a valuable tool for studying and conserving elusive, endangered animals.     

Bias in aerial estimates of the number of nests in White Ibis and Great Egret colonies

ABSTRACT Estimating detection error, as well as the magnitude of other potential survey biases, is essential when sampling efforts play a role in the estimation of population size and management of wildlife populations. We quantified visual biases in aerial surveys of nesting wading birds (Ciconiiformes) in colonies in the Florida Everglades using a negative binomial count regression model to compare numbers of nests in quadrats counted on the ground with numbers estimated from aerial photographs of the same quadrats. The model also allowed the determination of degree of difference between monitoring results based upon such factors as nest density, vegetative cover, and nest turnover rates. Aerial surveys of White Ibis (Eudocimus albus) colonies underestimated the true number of nests found during ground counts by 11.1%, and underestimates were significantly greater (P= 0.047) in a colony with high nest turnover. Error rates did not differ for quadrats that varied in the density of White Ibis nests did not differ, and visual bias did not increase with vegetative complexity (P= 0.73). Estimates of nest density in colonies of Great Egrets (Ardea alba) based on aerial surveys were higher than ground counts for 38% of the quadrats sampled, and mean visual bias was 23.1%. Species misidentification likely contributed to visibility bias for Great Egrets in our study, with some Snowy Egrets almost certainly mistaken for Great Egrets in aerial photos. Biases of the magnitude we observed fro Great Egrets and White Ibises can mask true population trends in long‐term monitoring and, therefore, we recommend that detection probability be explicitly evaluated when conducting aerial surveys of nesting birds.     

Predation on artificial nests in relation to forest type: contrasting the use of quail and plasticine eggs

Previous studies of avian nest predation have focused on how human-induced changes in the landscape influence the frequency of predation However, natural variation in the abundance of predators due to their choice of habitat can also influence predation rate To determine if predation on artificial nests was influenced by forest stand type, we placed ground and shrub nests containing quail and plasticine eggs in contiguous coniferous, mixedwood and deciduous stands in the southern boreal mixedwood forest of central Canada Nest predators were identified using remotely triggered cameras and marks left in plasticine eggs, while the relative abundance of nest predators such as squirrels and corvids were estimated using acoustic-visual surveys Using the fate of quail eggs to calculate predation rate, we found that predation was significantly higher in coniferous (67%) than in deciduous (17%) or mixedwood (25%) forest, with similar predation on ground (37%) and shrub (29%) nests Using plasticine eggs to calculate predation rate, nests in coniferous forest still suffered higher rates of predation, although predation rates were 15–20% higher, and ground nests suffered significantly higher rates of predation than shrub nests Quail eggs seemed to suffer lower rates of predation because small mammals were unable to penetrate the shell, but could leave marks on plasticine eggs The higher predation rate in coniferous forest was likely caused by higher abundance of red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus , the presence of fishers Martes pennanti and a simplified understory which may have made it easier for predators to find nests relative to the deciduous and mixedwood forest Plasucine eggs provide new insights into nest predation by identifying predation events by smaller predators such as mice that are missed when using quail eggs     

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation

Background

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.

Conclusions/Significance

We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.