Construction of Prediction Intervals in Location-Scale Families

Let x₁ ≤x₂ ≤x₃ … ≤x_r be the r smallest observations out of n observations from a location-scale family with density $ \frac{1}{\sigma}f\left({\frac{{x - \mu}}{\sigma}} \right) $ where μ and σ are the location and the scale parameters respectively. The goal is to construct a prediction interval of the form $ \left({\hat \mu + k_1 \hat \sigma,\,\hat \mu + k_2 \hat \sigma} \right) $ for a location-scale invariant function, T(Y) = T(Y₁, …, Y_m), of m future observations from the same distribution. Given any invariant estimators $ \hat \mu $ and $ \hat \sigma $, we have developed a general procedure for how to compute the values of k₁ and k₂. The two attractive features of the procedure are that it does not require any distributional knowledge of the joint distribution of the estimators beyond their first two raw moments and $ \hat \mu $ and $ \hat \sigma $ can be any invariant estimators of μ and σ. Examples with real data have been given and extensive simulation study showing the performance of the procedure is also offered.     

Reduced oxidative activity of circulating neutrophils in patients after myocardial infarction

Circulating neutrophils isolated from patients 3–4 h after a myocardial infarction produced less $ {\rm O}\frac{ \cdot }{{\rm 2}} $ compared with controls, when stimulated with phorbol myrystate acetate or formyl-methionine-leucine-phenylalanine. Three days after the infraction the $ {\rm O}\frac{ \cdot }{{\rm 2}} $ generation elicited by both stimuli further decreased markedly. Seven and 15 days after infarction the $ {\rm O}\frac{ \cdot }{{\rm 2}} $ stimulated production was only slightly lower than or similar to the control values. The neutrophils of infarcted patients showed an augmented latency period before $ {\rm O}\frac{ \cdot }{{\rm 2}} $ production compared with controls in response to exogenous stimuli, particularly three days after infarction. Electron microscopy revealed that the neutrophils isolated from the infarcted patients displayed signs of cell exhaustion with few alterations of the plasma membranes when stimulated with phorbol ester. In contrast, control neutrophils displayed alterations of the plasma membranes characteristic of active neutrophils. The results of this study indicate that the circulating neutrophils appear exhausted and functionally inhibited immediately after myocardial infarction.     

Bayesian Bootstrap Clones for Censored Markov Chains

In this article, we consider r observations from a non‐homogeneous censored Markov chain, with transition probability matrix P. For the product estimator of P proposed by Aalen and Johansen (1978) and Phelan (1988), we investigate the behavior of Bayesian bootstrap clones to approximate the sampling distribution of , and then construct approximate confidence interval. It is shown that the approximation based on the random‐weighted distribution is first‐order consistent. The performance of the Bayesian bootstrap clones (BBC) is also discussed by small sample simulation. Finally, we illustrate the BBC procedure in the application to the WHO malaria survey data (cf. Singer and Cohen 1970).     

The role of predator removal,density-dependence,and environmental factors on mallard duckling survival in North Dakota

Duckling survival is an important component of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) recruitment and population growth, yet many factors regulating duckling survival are poorly understood. We investigated factors affecting mallard duckling survival in the drift prairie of northeastern North Dakota, 2006–2007. Mammalian meso-predators were removed by trapping on 4 92.3 km² study sites and another 4 study sites served as controls. We monitored 169 broods using telemetry and periodic resighting, and we modeled cumulative survival to 30 days of age using the nest survival module in Program MARK. Duckling survival was not affected by predator removal ( , 85% CI: 0.182–0.234; , 85% CI: 0.155–0.211) and was only weakly negatively correlated with duckling density. Duckling survival was higher in 2007 ( , 85% CI: 0.193–0.355) than 2006 ( , 85% CI: 0.084–0.252) and increased with total seasonal and semipermanent wetland area and declined with perennial cover in the surrounding landscape. Broods that hatched earlier in the season (especially in 2006) and ducklings that were heavier at hatch also had higher survival. Our estimates of duckling survival are among the lowest reported for mallards and contradict previous research in Saskatchewan that found predator removal increased duckling survival. However, our results are consistent with other studies suggesting that earlier hatch date, increased wetland availability, and better duckling condition lead to increased survival. Management actions that increase wetland density, improve nest success early in the season, and potentially target brood-specific predators such as mink (Neovison vison) would likely lead to higher duckling survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Occupancy and abundance of wintering birds in a dynamic agricultural landscape

Assessing wildlife management action requires monitoring populations, and abundance often is the parameter monitored. Recent methodological advances have enabled estimation of mean abundance within a habitat using presence–absence or count data obtained via repeated visits to a sample of sites. These methods assume populations are closed and intuitively assume habitats within sites change little during a field season. However, many habitats are highly variable over short periods. We developed a variation of existing occupancy and abundance models that allows for extreme spatio-temporal differences in habitat, and resulting changes in wildlife abundance, among sites and among visits to a site within a field season. We conducted our study in sugarcane habitat within the Everglades Agricultural Area southeast of Lake Okeechobee in south Florida. We counted wintering birds, primarily passerines, within 245 sites usually 5 times at each site during December 2006–March 2007. We estimated occupancy and mean abundance of birds in 6 vegetation states during the sugarcane harvest and allowed these parameters to vary temporally or spatially within a vegetation state. Occupancy and mean abundance of the common yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas) was affected by structure of sugarcane and uncultivated edge vegetation (occupancy = 1.00 [ = 0.96–1.00] and mean abundance = 7.9 [ = 3.2–19.5] in tall sugarcane with tall edge vegetation versus 0.20 [ = 0.04–0.71] and 0.22 [ = 0.04–1.2], respectively, in short sugarcane with short edge vegetation in one half of the study area). Occupancy and mean abundance of palm warblers (Dendroica palmarum) were constant (occupancy = 1.00, = 0.69–1.00; mean abundance = 18, = 1–270). Our model may enable wildlife managers to assess rigorously effects of future edge habitat management on avian distribution and abundance within agricultural landscapes during winter or the breeding season. The model may also help wildlife managers make similar management decisions involving other dynamic habitats such as wetlands, prairies, and even forested areas if forest management or fires occur during the field season. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimation and correction of seed recovery bias from moist-soil cores

Scientists estimate seed abundances to calculate seasonal carrying capacities and assess wetland management actions for waterfowl and other wildlife using soil core samples. We evaluated recovery of known quantities of moist-soil seeds from whole and subsampled experimental core samples containing 12 seed taxa representing small, medium, and large size classes. We recovered 86.3% (SE = 1.8) of all seeds added to experimental cores; 8.3% (SE = 1.2) of seeds were destroyed during the sieving process and 5.4% (SE = 1.2) were not recovered by observers. Recovery rates varied by seed size, but not seed quantity or disproportionate ratios of seed-size classes. Overall seed recovery rates were similar between subsampled ( = 81.2%, SE = 3.6) and whole–processed core samples ( = 86.3%, SE = 1.8). We used recovery rates to generate size-specific, taxon-specific, and constant correction factors and applied each to actual core sample data. Size-specific correction factors increased seed mass estimates in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley ( = 10.1%, SE = 0.32), upper Midwest ( = 21.2%, SE = 0.61), and both regions combined ( = 15.7%, SE = 0.51) differently, as seed composition in core samples varied regionally. We suggest scientists consider using size-specific correction factors to account for seed recovery bias in core samples because these factors may be applied to a variety of taxa and produced similar mass estimates as taxon-specific correction factors. However, if data from core samples are unavailable at the resolution of seed size classes, we suggest increasing seed mass estimates by 16% to account for seed recovery bias. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Hibernal thermal ecology of eastern box turtles within a managed forest landscape

Box turtles are being extirpated from much of their former range and remaining populations often live in association with anthropogenically altered habitats. This is particularly evident at the northern distributional limit of eastern box turtles (Terrapene carolina carolina) and is an important factor to consider during the winter months when their ability to respond to microclimatic change is limited. Using temperature dataloggers, we studied the hibernal microclimate of box turtles and associated habitat following timber harvests. We monitored the body temperatures of 38 eastern box turtles and collected detailed air and soil profile temperatures of 12 box turtle hibernacula, 6 clearcuts, and 6 adjacent forested areas during the hibernal season (winter 2009–2010). We partitioned the hibernal season into 2 biologically significant thermal periods: hibernation and emergence. The mean hibernation body temperature averaged (3.28° C, SE = 0.09) and corresponded to an average depth of 10 cm. Clearcuts were consistently colder ( = 1.91° C) than forests ( = 2.68° C) and hibernacula ( = 2.77° C) during hibernation, but became the warmest areas during emergence ( = 9.96° C). We found that in the average clearcut, turtles could burrow to approximately 20 cm to attain the average hibernation body temperature or to approximately 15 cm to attain a body temperature no different than those overwintering on colder, northeast-facing slopes in the forest ( = 2.83° C). Alternatively, we found that southwest-facing slopes were warmer and if turtles chose to overwinter only in clearcuts on those slopes, they could remain shallower. All but 1 turtle overwintered in forested areas; however, our study suggests that some timber harvested areas offer various microhabitats exploitable by hibernating box turtles based on soil profile temperatures, slope aspect, and depth of hibernation. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Polarized fluorescence in an electric field. A model calculation with application to the geometry of the 2-hydroxy-4,4′-diamidinostilbene–DNA complex

Theoretical expressions are derived for the change in the polarized components of the fluorescence, resulting from the orientation of a rigid molecule bearing a chromophore with arbitrary angles for the absorption and transition moments \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \vec \mu _a $\end{document} and \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \vec \mu _e $\end{document} with respect to the molecular axis. The break in the symmetry relation H_V = V_H is related to the tilt angle between \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \vec \mu _a $\end{document} and \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \vec \mu _e $\end{document}. The theory is applied to a sonicated DNA–2-hydroxy-4,4′-diamidinostilbene complex, in the blue and red emission bands of this peculiar dye. Simultaneous measurements of linear dichroism and fluorescence lead to the determination of an angle of 47° between a fluorescent bound dye and the DNA axis, with no difference for the blue- and red-emitting species, but confirm the presence of nonfluorescent bound dye in a more perpendicular arrangement.     

Optical anisotropy of polypeptide chains

Optical anisotropies γ² of N-t-butylacetamide (tBA), N-Methylacetamide (MA), and N, N-dimethylacetamide (DMA) have been determined from the Rayleigh ratios for depolarzed scattering by dilute solutions of the amides in p-dioxane. Traceless optical polarizability tensors \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \widehat{\rm \alpha } $\end{document} for the amides are derived from these results in conjunction with the Kerr constant for tBA determined by LeGèvre and co-workers. It is shown that the tensor \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \widehat{\rm \alpha } $\end{document}_i for the glycyle unit in a polypeptide chain may be identified with \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \widehat{\rm \alpha } $\end{document}MA . Methods for deriving corresponding tensors for other peptide units are indicated and the traceless polarizability tensor \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \widehat{\rm \alpha } $\end{document} for a polypeptide chain in any specified configuration is formulated.     

Equi-replicated balanced block designs generated by a balanced matrix

In this paper it is shown that if N= \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \mathop \sum \limits_{i = 1}^{S_h} $\end{document} c_ihN_ih, where c_ih are some non-negative integer numbers and N_ih are such incidence matrices that A_h = \documentclass{article}\pagestyle{empty}\begin{document}$ \mathop \sum \limits_{i = 1}^{S_h} $\end{document} i N_ih is a balanced matrix defined by SHAH (1959), for h = 1, 2,…, p, then a block design with an incidence matrix Ñ = [N, N,…,N] is an equi-replicated balanced block design. Here the balance of a block design is defined in terms of the matrix M₀ introduced by CALI?SKI (1971).     

Einfluß extracellulärer Kaliuminoenkonzentrationen auf die celluläre Natriumionenkonzentration von Lodderomyces elongisporus D

It was found that the cellular Na⁺-concentration (C) of Lodderomyces elongisporus D is depended on the extracellular K⁺-concentration (C). The relationship can be described by an equation in the form The function of the natrium ion seem to be to support the utilisation rate of potassium ion at lower extracellular K⁺-concentration.     

Survival of white-tailed deer fawns in the grasslands of the northern Great Plains

Environmental factors, such as forest characteristics, have been linked to fawn survival in eastern and southern white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations. In the Great Plains, less is known about how intrinsic and habitat factors influence fawn survival. During 2007–2009, we captured and radiocollared 81 fawns in north-central South Dakota and recorded 23 mortalities, of which 18 died before 1 September. Predation accounted for 52.2% of mortality; remaining mortality included human (hunting, vehicle, and farm accident; 26.1%) and hypothermia (21.7%). Coyotes (Canis latrans) accounted for 83.3% of predation on fawns. We used known-fate analysis in Program MARK to estimate summer (15 May–31 Aug) survival rates and investigated the influence of intrinsic and habitat variables on survival. We developed 2 a priori model sets, including intrinsic variables and a test of annual variation in survival (model set 1) and habitat variables (model set 2). Model set 1 indicated that summer survival varied among years (2007–2009); annual survival rates were 0.94 (SE = 0.06, n = 22), 0.78 (SE = 0.09, n = 27), and 0.54 (SE = 0.10, n = 32), respectively. Model set 2 indicated that survival was further influenced by patch density of cover habitats (Conservation Reserve Program [CRP]-grasslands, forested cover, and wetlands). Mean CRP-grassland and wetland patch density (no. patches/100 ha) were greater (P < 0.001) in home-range areas of surviving fawns ( = 1.81, SE = 0.10, n = 63; = 1.75, SE = 0.14, n = 63, respectively) than in home-range areas of fawns that died ( = 0.16, SE = 0.04, n = 18; = 1.28, SE = 0.10, n = 18, respectively). Mean forested cover patch density was less (P < 0.001) in home-range areas of surviving fawns ( = 0.77, SE = 0.10, n = 63) than in home-range areas of fawns that died ( = 1.49, SE = 0.21, n = 18). Our results indicate that management activities should focus on CRP-grassland and wetland habitats in order to maintain or improve fawn survival in the northern Great Plains, rather than forested cover composed primarily of tree plantings and shelterbelts. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Variation in spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys in New York,Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Spring harvest rates of male wild turkeys (Meleagris gallapavo) influence the number and proportion of adult males in the population and turkey population models have treated harvest as additive to other sources of mortality. Therefore, hunting regulations and their effect on spring harvest rates have direct implications for hunter satisfaction. We used tag recovery models to estimate survival rates, investigate spatial, temporal, and demographic variability in harvest rates, and assess how harvest rates may be related to management strategies and landscape characteristics. We banded 3,266 male wild turkeys throughout New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania during 2006–2009. We found little evidence that harvest rates varied by year or management zone. The proportion of the landscape that was forested within 6.5 km of the capture location was negatively related to harvest rates; however, even though the proportion forested ranged from 0.008 to 0.96 across our study area, this corresponded to differences in harvest rates of only 2–5%. Annual survival was approximately twice as high for juveniles as adults . In turn, spring harvest rates for adult turkeys were greater for adults than juveniles . We estimated the population of male turkeys in New York and Pennsylvania ranged from 104,000 to 132,000 in all years and ranged from 63,000 to 75,000 in Ohio. Because of greater harvest rates for adult males, the proportion of adult males in the population was less than in the harvest and ranged from 0.40 to 0.81 among all states and years. The high harvest rates observed for adults may be offset by greater recruitment of juveniles into the adult age class the following year such that these states can sustain high harvest rates yet still maintain a relative high proportion of adult males in the harvest and population. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of temperature on microbial ethanol production. III. The influence of the temperature on the relation existing between the specific ethanol formation rate of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae Sc 5 and the ethanol concentration in the culture medium

The ethanol-inhibitory behaviour of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae Sc 5 was found to be characterized by a continual-linear relation between the specific ethanol formation rate and the ethanol concentration. Therefore the simple equation could be applied for it. It is shown that this model is correct only then, if all of the process parameters are in their optimum. Out of the optimum temperature range the characteristics of the function ν = f(P) change in such a way that in regard to the ethanol concentration P twc linear relations exist for each suboptimum temperature: and a non-linear equation is current for each superoptimum temperature: where b_T is also a function of the temperature and always less than 1. Taking as a basis these equations the specific ethanol formation rate of the used strain can be calculated for the whole biokinetic P/T-sphere of ethanol production.     

Regulation of changes in cytosolic Ca2+ and Na+ concentrations in rat submandibular gland acini exposed to carbachol and ATP

The relationship between cytosolic concentrations of Ca²⁺ (Ca) and Na⁺ (Na) were studied in preparations of rat submandibular and pancreatic acini loaded with the Ca²⁺-sensitive dye Fura-2 or the Na⁺-sensitive dye SBFI. Pancreatic acini showed no changes in Na during either transient or persistent changes in Ca. Increases in Ca produced by exposure of submandibular gland acini to carbachol, a muscarinic cholinergic agonist, were followed by an increase in Na after a delay of 5–10 s. When Ca²⁺ stores were mobilized without Ca²⁺ influx Na also increased, but in acini loaded with BAPTA, a nonfluorescent Ca²⁺ chelator, the transient increase in Ca²⁺ caused by mobilization of stored Ca²⁺ was virtually abolished, as was the increase in Na. In the presence of ionomycin, increases in Ca were followed by increases in Na. Ca²⁺-dependent increases in Na were abolished in Na⁺-free buffer and by the presence of furosemide, a blocker of Na⁺-K⁺-2Cl⁻ cotransport. In other studies, extracellular ATP (ATP_o) produced an increase in Ca and Na. The steady-state increase in Ca was reduced by increasing extracellular Na⁺ concentrations (Na) in dose-dependent fashion (IC₅₀ = 16.4 ± 4.7 mM Na⁺). Likewise, increasing Na reduced ATP_o-stimulated ⁴⁵Ca²⁺ uptake at steady state (IC₅₀ = 15.8 ± 9.2 mM Na⁺). Changing Na had no effect on carbachol-stimulated increases in Ca. We conclude that, in rat submandibular gland acini, ATP_o promotes an increase in Ca and Na via a common influx pathway and that, under physiologic conditions, Na⁺ significantly limits the ATP_o-stimulated increase in Ca. In the presence of carbachol, however, Na rises in Ca-dependent fashion in submandibular gland acini via stimulation of Na⁺-K⁺-2Cl⁻ cotransport. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Enantioselective interactions of inversion-labile trigonal iron(II) complexes upon binding to DNA

We studied the interactions of the substitution-inert inversion-labile complexes Fe(bipy) and Fe(phen) [and the inversion-stable complex Ru(bipy)] with DNA. The association of these complexes to DNA is mainly electrostatic, and Fe(phen) shows a more effective binding to DNA than the two bipyridyl complexes, possibly owing to a different binding mode. The interactions are enantioselective, leading to a Pfeiffer shift in the diastereomeric inversion equilibria and an excess of the Δ-enantiomer of Fe(phen) and Fe(bipy), which is directly monitorable through CD. The partition constants for the inversion equilibrium range from 1.3 to 2.0 for Fe(bipy) and Fe(phen), depending on ionic conditions. From flow LD information about the orientation of the complexes on DNA was obtained: it is consistent with a fit of the Δ-enantiomer in the major groove of the right-handed DNA helix. The mechanisms of interaction are discussed against equilibrium, spectroscopic, and kinetic data.     

Effects of temperature on microbial ethanol production. II. A thermodynamic interpretation of the temperature profile curve of ethanol production

An attempt is made to give a thermodynamic interpretation of the complete temperature profile curve of ethanol formation. Taking into consideration an enhancing competition between thermal activation and thermal deactivation of ethanol formation at increasing temperatures and supposing that the ethanol production is affected by a reversible and an irreversible term of thermal deactivation of a modified ARRHENIUS equation being current for the total biokinetic sphere may be derived: . The quantities ΔH and ΔH^D_2T are identical with the temperature functions of the change of entropy caused by reversible and irreversible deactivation of ethanol formation, respectively. Accordingly for the yeast strain Saccharomyces cerevisiae Sc 5 the calculated entropy coefficients of reversible and irreversible thermal deactivation of ethanol formation amount to C = (0.245± 0.013) kJ/mol · deg.² and C = (1.657 ± 0.046) kJ/mol · deg.².     

Conformation of poly(L-arginine). I. Effects of anions

The conformational transition of poly(L -agrignine) by binding with various mono-, di-, and polyvalent anions, especially with SO, was studied by CD measurements. The intramolecular random coil-to-α-helix conformational transition and the subsequent transition to the β-turn-like structure was caused by binding with SO. The binding data obtained from equilibrium dialysis experiments showed that the α-helical conformation of poly(L -arginine) is stabilized at a 1:3 stoichiometric ratio of bound SO to arginine residue; at higher free SO concentrations, the α-helix converts to the β-turn-like structure accompanied by a decrease in amount of bound SO. The same conformaitonal transition of poly(L -arginine) also occurred in the solutions of other divalent anions (SO, CO, and HPO) and polyvalent anions (P₂O, P₃O). Among the monovalent anions examined, CIO and dodecyl sulfate were effective in including α-helical conformation, while the other monovalent anions (OH^?, Cl^?, F^?, H₂PO, HCO and CIO) failed to induce poly(L -arginine) to assume the α-helical conformation. Thus, we noticed that, except for dodecyl sufate, the terahedral structure is common to the α-helix-forming anions. A well-defined model to the α-helical poly(L -arginine)/anion complex was proposed, in which both the binding stoichiometry of anions to the arginine residue and the tetrahedral structure of anions were taken into consideration. Based on these results, it was concluded that the tetrahedral-type anions stabilize the α-helical conformation of poly(L -arginine) by crosslinking between two guanidinium groups of nearby side chains on the same α-helix through the ringed structures stabilized by hydrogen bonds as well as by electrostatic interaction. Throughout the study it was noticed that the structural behavior of poly(L -arginine) toward anions is distinct from that of poly(L -lysine).     

A stereospecific complex of poly(I) with ammonium ion

We describe conditions which lead to complete helix formation of poly(I) in the presence of NH. Binding of NH is shown to be specific in the presence of Li⁺, which does not by itself support helix formation under these conditions. The NH–poly(I) complex is characterized by uv, CD, and ir spectroscopy. The CD spectrum is strikingly different from those of the Na⁺ or K⁺ complexes, the first extremum being changed from negative for the metal ions to positive for NH. A stereospecific model is proposed for the NH–poly(I) helix in which the N of NH is located on the axis of the four-stranded helix, midway between planar tetramers formed by the bases. The model is consistent with the tetrahedral symmetry of NH, the requirement for four acceptable hydrogen bonds, the observed stability of the helix, and the accepted geometry of the backbone.