基于湿度分布特征的小尺度土壤碳通量空间采样策略

由于土壤碳通量的空间异质性很强,传统的随机抽样方法无法对区域土壤碳通量进行准确估算,而多点采样需耗费大量的人力及设备成本,因此确定适当的采样点数量及分布策略对于区域土壤碳通量的测算非常重要。提出一种基于湿度空间分布特征的小尺度土壤碳通量空间采样策略:首先利用无线传感网密集测量区域的土壤湿度,根据湿度数据的空间分布特征划分监测区域,通过Hammond Mc Cullagh方程计算各子区域内的最优采样点数量,最终确定整个监测区域的空间采样点部署策略。提出的方法考虑了各子区域间土壤碳通量空间分布的差异,使得采样点的部署位置与土壤碳通量的分布具有较好的相关性。研究结果证明:土壤碳通量部署策略能够获得比均匀部署策略、随机部署策略更高的区域土壤碳通量估算准确度。     

Spatial analysis of within-population microsatellite variability reveals restricted gene flow in the Pacific golden chanterelle (Cantharellus formosus)

We examined the within-population genetic structure of the Pacific golden chanterelle (Cantharellus formosus) in a 50 y old forest stand dominated by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) with spatial autocorrelation analysis. We tested the null hypothesis that multilocus genotypes possessed by chanterelle genets were randomly distributed within the study area. Fruit bodies from 203 C. formosus genets were collected from a 50 ha study plot. One hundred six unique multilocus genotypes were identified after scoring these collections at five microsatellite loci. Statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation was detected indicating the presence of fine-scale genetic structure within the area. Repeated autocorrelation analyses with varied minimum distance classes (50-500 m) detected positive spatial genetic structure up to 400 m. Therefore nonrandom evolutionary processes (e.g., isolation by distance) can cause fine-scale genetic structure in C. formosus. The implications of this research for future broad-scale population studies of this species are that population samples should be separated by at least 400 m to be considered statistically independent. Sampling designs that account for fine-scale genetic structure will better characterize heterogeneity distributed across the landscape by avoiding the effects of pseudo replication.     

The effect of segregation of flowering time on fine-scale spatial genetic structure in an alpine-snowbed herb Primula cuneifolia

The flowering phenology of alpine-snowbed plants varies widely depending on the time of snowmelt. This variation may cause spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pollen dispersal, which in turn may influence genetic structure. We used spatial autocorrelation analyses to evaluate relative effect of segregation in flowering time and physical distance on fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) of a snowbed herb Primula cuneifolia sampled in 10-m grids within a continuous snow patch (110 x 250 m) using nine allozyme loci. Although the individual flower lasts for 相似文献   

Genetics of sprouting: effects of long-term persistence in fire-prone ecosystems

Fire functional traits (postfire resprouting and seeding) are considered to be adaptations for persisting in fire-prone environments. Although ecological and evolutionary consequences of sprouting have been extensively discussed, within-species genetic variability and structure are unknown. Here we report levels and distribution patterns of genetic polymorphisms in postfire stands of the predominant sprouter Nothofagus antarctica . Fresh foliage of 50 individuals was collected following a spatially explicit sampling design for isozyme analysis from two replicates of each of four habitat types inhabited by the species in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina: matorral, high elevation, forest, and temporally flooded basins. Average polymorphism per population ranged from 44% to 78% and mean gene diversity per site H _S varied from 0.187 to 0.274. These results show that sprouter populations hold considerable genetic variation. Significant genetic structure over short distances (< 50 m) was found at all locations. Ancient fine-scale genetic structure is preserved by occasional seedling establishment that results in high co-ancestry coefficients. Sprouter populations growing in suboptimal habitats such as matorral, high elevation or basins consist of pairs of heterozygous genets that occur at larger spatial scales as a result of micro-environmental heterogeneity and/or local competition between near neighbour genotypes. In contrast, homozygous pairs of individuals for distinct isozyme loci occurred at larger spatial scales in forest stands. This indicates that biparental inbreeding due to local propagule establishment may take place to some extent in sprouters growing under favourable conditions. Our results show that sprouters follow a long-lasting genet persistence strategy which most probably is selected under unpredictable disturbance regimes, such as fire.     

Experimental evidence that soil heterogeneity enhances plant diversity during community assembly

Aims Environmental heterogeneity is a primary mechanism explaining species coexistence and extant patterns of diversity. Despite strong theoretical support and ample observational evidence, few experimental studies in plant communities have been able to demonstrate a causal link between environmental heterogeneity and plant diversity. This lack of experimental evidence suggests that either fine-scale heterogeneity has weak effects on plant diversity or previous experiments have been unable to effectively manipulate heterogeneity. Here, we utilize a unique soil manipulation to test whether fine-scale soil heterogeneity will increase plant richness through species sorting among experimental patch types.Methods This experiment was conducted in the tallgrass prairie region of south-central Kansas, USA. We utilized the inherent variation found in the vertical soil profile, which varied in both biotic and abiotic characteristics, and redistributed these strata into either homogeneous or heterogeneous spatial arrangements in 2.4×2.4 m plots. After the soil manipulation, 34 native prairie species were sown into all plots. We conducted annual censuses at peak biomass to quantify species composition and plant density by species within the experimental communities.Important findings After 2 years, species richness was significantly higher in heterogeneous relative to homogeneous plots and this pattern was independent of total plant density. In the heterogeneous plots, 13 species had higher establishment in a specific patch type representing one of the three soil strata. Conversely, no species had greater establishment in the mixed stratum, which comprised the homogeneous plots, relative to the heterogeneous strata. These species sorting patterns suggest that fine-scale heterogeneity creates opportunities for plant establishment due to niche differences, which translates into increased plant diversity at the plot scale. Species richness was more strongly related to plant density among patches comprising homogenous plots—where fine-scale heterogeneity was minimized, but weak in heterogeneous plots. This pattern is consistent with the idea that richness–density relationships dominate when neutral processes are important but are weak when niche processes operate. Unlike many previous attempts, our results provide clear, experimental evidence that fine-scale soil heterogeneity increases species richness through species sorting during community assembly.     

Species Associations in a Species-Rich Subtropical Forest Were Not Well-Explained by Stochastic Geometry of Biodiversity

The stochastic dilution hypothesis has been proposed to explain species coexistence in species-rich communities. The relative importance of the stochastic dilution effects with respect to other effects such as competition and habitat filtering required to be tested. In this study, using data from a 25-ha species-rich subtropical forest plot with a strong topographic structure at Badagongshan in central China, we analyzed overall species associations and fine-scale species interactions between 2,550 species pairs. The result showed that: (1) the proportion of segregation in overall species association analysis at 2 m neighborhood in this plot followed the prediction of the stochastic dilution hypothesis that segregations should decrease with species richness but that at 10 m neighborhood was higher than the prediction. (2) The proportion of no association type was lower than the expectation of stochastic dilution hypothesis. (3) Fine-scale species interaction analyses using Heterogeneous Poisson processes as null models revealed a high proportion (47%) of significant species effects. However, the assumption of separation of scale of this method was not fully met in this plot with a strong fine-scale topographic structure. We also found that for species within the same families, fine-scale positive species interactions occurred more frequently and negative ones occurred less frequently than expected by chance. These results suggested effects of environmental filtering other than species interaction in this forest. (4) We also found that arbor species showed a much higher proportion of significant fine-scale species interactions (66%) than shrub species (18%). We concluded that the stochastic dilution hypothesis only be partly supported and environmental filtering left discernible spatial signals in the spatial associations between species in this species-rich subtropical forest with a strong topographic structure.     

Integration of local and regional species-area relationships from space-time species accumulation

A long-standing observation in community ecology is that the scaling of species richness, as exemplified by species-area curves, differs on local and regional scales. This decoupling of scales may be largely due to sampling processes (the increasing constraint imposed by sampling fewer individuals at fine scales), as distinct from ecological processes, such as environmental heterogeneity, that operate across scales. Removal of the sampling constraint from fine-scale richness estimates should yield species-area curves that behave like those of the regions in which they are embedded, but an effective method for this removal has not been available. We suggest an approach that incorporates the manner in which small areas accumulate species over time as a way to remove the signature of sampling processes from fine-scale species-area curves. We report for three species-rich grasslands from two continents how local plant species richness is distributed through time at multiple, nested spatial scales, and we ask whether sampling-corrected curves reflect the spatial scaling of richness of each larger floristic province. Our analysis suggests that fine-scale values of richness are highly constrained by sampling processes, but once these constraints are removed, the spatial scaling of species richness is consistent from the scale of individuals to that of an entire province.     

林冠结构是局域尺度木本植物功能性状beta多样性形成的重要驱动力

功能性状beta多样性反映了群落间功能性状组成的差异, 解析其形成机制是群落生态学研究的核心内容之一。本研究以云南西双版纳热带季节雨林20 ha动态监测样地为研究对象, 测定木本植物11个重要的功能性状, 采用多度加权的平均最近邻体性状距离度量不同取样尺度的功能性状beta多样性, 基于距离矩阵的多元回归方法解析林冠结构差异、环境异质性、空间距离在功能性状beta多样性格局形成中的相对作用。结果表明, 对于所有木本植物个体(DBH ≥ 1 cm)而言, 同时考虑林冠结构、环境和空间距离的模型为解释功能性状beta多样性格局的最优模型; 在3个不同取样尺度上, 林冠结构差异和环境距离都对功能性状beta多样性具有较大的解释力, 且随着取样尺度的增大而上升, 空间距离的作用基本可以忽略。本研究证实了林冠结构是局域尺度木本植物功能性状beta多样性格局形成的重要驱动力, 这一发现更新了环境异质性和空间距离是驱动功能性状beta多样性格局形成的主要因素的传统认知, 为将来研究功能性状beta多样性形成机制提供新的视角, 并证实了取样尺度在解析木本植物功能性状beta多样性格局形成机制中的重要性。     

Spatial Heterogeneity as a Genetic Mixing Mechanism in Highly Philopatric Colonial Seabirds

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics.     

Fine-scale genetic structure of a long-lived reptile reflects recent habitat modification

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation — ubiquitous in modern ecosystems — has strong impacts on gene flow and genetic population structure. Reptiles may be particularly susceptible to the effects of fragmentation because of their extreme sensitivity to environmental conditions and limited dispersal. We investigate fine-scale spatial genetic structure, individual relatedness, and sex-biased dispersal in a large population of a long-lived reptile (tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus) on a recently fragmented island. We genotyped individuals from remnant forest, regenerating forest, and grassland pasture sites at seven microsatellite loci and found significant genetic structuring (R_ST = 0.012) across small distances (< 500 m). Isolation by distance was not evident, but rather, genetic distance was weakly correlated with habitat similarity. Only individuals in forest fragments were correctly assignable to their site of origin, and individual pairwise relatedness in one fragment was significantly higher than expected. We did not detect sex-biased dispersal, but natural dispersal patterns may be confounded by fragmentation. Assignment tests showed that reforestation appears to have provided refuges for tuatara from disturbed areas. Our results suggest that fine-scale genetic structuring is driven by recent habitat modification and compounded by the sedentary lifestyle of these long-lived reptiles. Extreme longevity, large population size, simple social structure and random dispersal are not strong enough to counteract the genetic structure caused by a sedentary lifestyle. We suspect that fine-scale spatial genetic structuring could occur in any sedentary species with limited dispersal, making them more susceptible to the effects of fragmentation.     

Breed Locally,Disperse Globally: Fine-Scale Genetic Structure Despite Landscape-Scale Panmixia in a Fire-Specialist

An exciting advance in the understanding of metapopulation dynamics has been the investigation of how populations respond to ephemeral patches that go ‘extinct’ during the lifetime of an individual. Previous research has shown that this scenario leads to genetic homogenization across large spatial scales. However, little is known about fine-scale genetic structuring or how this changes over time in ephemeral patches. We predicted that species that specialize on ephemeral habitats will delay dispersal to exploit natal habitat patches while resources are plentiful and thus display fine-scale structure. To investigate this idea, we evaluated the effect of frequent colonization of ephemeral habitats on the fine-scale genetic structure of a fire specialist, the black-backed woodpecker (Picoides arcticus) and found a pattern of fine-scale genetic structure. We then tested for differences in spatial structure between sexes and detected a pattern consistent with male-biased dispersal. We also detected a temporal increase in relatedness among individuals within newly burned forest patches. Our results indicate that specialist species that outlive their ephemeral patches can accrue significant fine-scale spatial structure that does not necessarily affect spatial structure at larger scales. This highlights the importance of both spatial and temporal scale considerations in both sampling and data interpretation of molecular genetic results.     

Patterns in Temporal Variability of Temperature,Oxygen and pH along an Environmental Gradient in a Coral Reef

Spatial and temporal environmental variability are important drivers of ecological processes at all scales. As new tools allow the in situ exploration of individual responses to fluctuations, ecologically meaningful ways of characterizing environmental variability at organism scales are needed. We investigated the fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of high-frequency temporal variability in temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, and pH experienced by benthic organisms in a shallow coastal coral reef. We used a spatio-temporal sampling design, consisting of 21 short-term time-series located along a reef flat-to-reef slope transect, coupled to a long-term station monitoring water column changes. Spectral analyses revealed sharp gradients in variance decomposed by frequency, as well as differences between physically-driven and biologically-reactive parameters. These results highlight the importance of environmental variance at organismal scales and present a new sampling scheme for exploring this variability in situ.     

Genetic spatial autocorrelation can readily detect sex-biased dispersal

Sex-biased dispersal is expected to generate differences in the fine-scale genetic structure of males and females. Therefore, spatial analyses of multilocus genotypes may offer a powerful approach for detecting sex-biased dispersal in natural populations. However, the effects of sex-biased dispersal on fine-scale genetic structure have not been explored. We used simulations and multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to investigate how sex-biased dispersal influences fine-scale genetic structure. We evaluated three statistical tests for detecting sex-biased dispersal: bootstrap confidence intervals about autocorrelation r values and recently developed heterogeneity tests at the distance class and whole correlogram levels. Even modest sex bias in dispersal resulted in significantly different fine-scale spatial autocorrelation patterns between the sexes. This was particularly evident when dispersal was strongly restricted in the less-dispersing sex (mean distance <200 m), when differences between the sexes were readily detected over short distances. All tests had high power to detect sex-biased dispersal with large sample sizes (n ≥ 250). However, there was variation in type I error rates among the tests, for which we offer specific recommendations. We found congruence between simulation predictions and empirical data from the agile antechinus, a species that exhibits male-biased dispersal, confirming the power of individual-based genetic analysis to provide insights into asymmetries in male and female dispersal. Our key recommendations for using multilocus spatial autocorrelation analyses to test for sex-biased dispersal are: (i) maximize sample size, not locus number; (ii) concentrate sampling within the scale of positive structure; (iii) evaluate several distance class sizes; (iv) use appropriate methods when combining data from multiple populations; (v) compare the appropriate groups of individuals.     

地形对森林群落年龄及其空间格局的影响

 地形已被广泛认为是植被环境时空异质性的重要来源,但其对山地森林群落动态的影响及其机理仍不清楚。作者在三峡大老岭选取一块200 m×100 m的常绿落叶阔叶林样地, 在样地植物群落调查的同时,建立了1∶500的数字高程模型,并利用树木年轮数据和分种的胸径 年龄幂函数模型,推算了全部10 m×10 m单元样方的群落年龄。统计了样地群落的年龄结构及其代表种的构成特征,并利用多元回归结合方差分析方法分析了地形和生物因子对群落年龄结构的影响与途径。结果表明：1）幂函数模型很好地拟合了16个树种的胸径-年龄数量关系;2）样地内群落斑块的年龄介于14～179年,平均值在95年左右;3）代表样方群落年龄的树种共有24 个,而前5种即在68.5%的样方中决定群落的年龄;4）回归分析表明群落年龄受到溪流影响指数、坡位、坡度、样方内受干扰木胸面积和树种生长指数等因素的显著影响。显示沟谷地 表径流冲击和表土侵蚀等坡面过程带来的干扰明显影响群落发育过程的空间格局,具有不同生态习性树种的潜在年龄也限制了群落的现实年龄;5）地形主要通过控制地表干扰体系的时空分布和不同物种的选择性分布两方面而对群落动态与年龄产生影响。但由于生态格局自身的复杂性与随机性和分析方法带来的误差,使基于地形的群落年龄格局预测结果还存在较大的不确定性。     

Environmental Heterogeneity Influences Successional Trajectories in Colombian Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests

Environmental characteristics have a major effect on the species composition of seasonally dry tropical forest. However, this effect has been little considered when describing secondary succession of this ecosystem. We tested the hypothesis that local environmental heterogeneity influences successional trajectories when high species richness is available. Changes in species composition and structure were described in 126 vegetation plots differing in successional stage and located along a topographical and soil nutrient gradient. Variation in community composition was partitioned between successional stage, environmental characteristics, and spatial structure using redundancy analyses. In addition, relationships between plot distance matrices for these factors were analysed by means of Mantel tests. High species turnover was observed during succession and species composition similarity was higher among late successional forest than among early and intermediate forests. A higher portion of variation in species composition was explained by environmental characteristics compared to successional stage, whereas the spatial structure of the data was weak. Our results suggest that in the region of study, variation in the successional trajectories is occurring owing to environmental heterogeneity, as well as to human disturbance and other unmeasured processes.     

蜀南竹海毛竹林土壤物理性质空间异质性

土壤空间异质性是土壤的重要综合属性,对土壤的结构与功能以及植被的空间格局有重要影响。以蜀南竹海核心区毛竹林土壤为研究对象,采用1∶10000地形图为工作底图,按公里网格布点,应用地统计学方法,分析了土壤物理性质的空间异质性,旨在为研究区毛竹林的可持续经营提供基础数据和理论参考。结果表明:除土壤最大持水量和最小持水量外,研究区土壤粘粒、容重、非毛管孔隙度、毛管孔隙度和毛管持水量等5个土壤物理性质空间变异性明显,其半变异函数用指数、高斯和球状模型拟合,变程范围在1252.3—11887.1 m,块金值和基台值比值范围为0.03%—52.07%,表明各物理性质有不同程度的空间自相关性;土壤持水特性有较大的块金值,说明存在小尺度的空间异质性;普通克里格插值及物理性质空间分布图表明,土壤物理性质在空间分布上具有斑块性,在不同土层深度的空间分布有一致性。人为干扰是影响研究区土壤物理性质空间分布格局的一个主要原因。减少人为干扰,优化林分结构,维护与提高毛竹林生产力。     

Conservation value of alternative land-use systems for dung beetles in Amazon: valuing traditional farming practices

Land-use systems (LUS), placed in originally forested areas, represent different degrees of opportunity for species conservation. In this study, we examined the dung beetle communities in order to identify the conservation value of different LUS: primary forest, old secondary forest, young secondary forest, agroforestry, agriculture and pasture in Western Amazon. The LUS were sampled in two campaigns during the highest precipitation period and dryest period. The primary forest has a high number of total and exclusive species. Large beetles show a continuous decreasing in richness and abundance from primary forest to pastures, while small ones are not sensible to intermediate systems (secondary forest to agriculture) in terms of species richness and exhibit a increase in abundance at agroforest and agriculture when contrasted to secondary forest and pasture The beetle community composition was not sensible to secondary forest recovering time. Secondary forests and agroforestry stood out as harboring many species shared with primary forests. Cloud-point dispersion (average dissimilarity) increased from primary forest towards LUS’s submitted to more intense use. The higher sampling points similarity observed in primary forest might be the result of the relative stability of this system, given that environmental impacts might increase variability in community structure and beta diversity. Increase in beta diversity as expressed by greater dispersion of sites in multivariate space suggests that these areas are dependent on nearby species pools, possibly primary forests, and harbor a higher spatial heterogeneity in species composition. This high variability can overestimate the importance of occasional species, thus biasing the actual value of alternative LUS for biodiversity conservation.     

Scale specific determinants of tree diversity in an old growth temperate forest in China

The major processes generating pattern in plant community composition depend upon the spatial scale and resolution of observation, therefore understanding the role played by spatial scale on species patterns is of major concern. In this study, we investigate how well environmental (topography and soil variables) and spatial variables explain variation in species composition in a 25-ha temperate forest in northeastern China. We used new variation partitioning approaches to discover the spatial scale (using multi-scale spatial PCNM variables) at which environmental heterogeneity and other spatially structured processes influence tree community composition. We also test the effect of changing grain of the study (i.e. quadrat size) on the variation partitioning results. Our results indicate that (1) species composition in the Changbai mixed broadleaf-conifer forest was controlled mainly by spatially structured soil variation at broad scales, while at finer scales most of the explained variation was of a spatial nature, pointing to the importance of biotic processes. (2) These results held at all sampling grains. However, reducing quadrat size progressively reduced both spatially and environmentally explained variance. This probably partly reflects increasing stochasticity in species abundances, and the smaller proportion of quadrats occupied by each species, when quadrat size is reduced. The results suggest that environmental heterogeneity (i.e. niche processes) and other biotic processes such as dispersal work together, but at different spatial scales, to build up diversity patterns.     

Ground Layer Plant Species Turnover and Beta Diversity in Southern-European Old-Growth Forests

Different assembly processes may simultaneously affect local-scale variation of species composition in temperate old-growth forests. Ground layer species diversity reflects chance colonization and persistence of low-dispersal species, as well as fine-scale environmental heterogeneity. The latter depends on both purely abiotic factors, such as soil properties and topography, and factors primarily determined by overstorey structure, such as light availability. Understanding the degree to which plant diversity in old-growth forests is associated with structural heterogeneity and/or to dispersal limitation will help assessing the effectiveness of silvicultural practices that recreate old-growth patterns and structures for the conservation or restoration of plant diversity. We used a nested sampling design to assess fine-scale species turnover, i.e. the proportion of species composition that changes among sampling units, across 11 beech-dominated old-growth forests in Southern Europe. For each stand, we also measured a wide range of environmental and structural variables that might explain ground layer species turnover. Our aim was to quantify the relative importance of dispersal limitation in comparison to that of stand structural heterogeneity while controlling for other sources of environmental heterogeneity. For this purpose, we used multiple regression on distance matrices at the within-stand extent, and mixed effect models at the extent of the whole dataset. Species turnover was best predicted by structural and environmental heterogeneity, especially by differences in light availability and in topsoil nutrient concentration and texture. Spatial distances were significant only in four out of eleven stands with a relatively low explanatory power. This suggests that structural heterogeneity is a more important driver of local-scale ground layer species turnover than dispersal limitation in southern European old-growth beech forests.     

Post‐fire tree establishment patterns at the alpine treeline ecotone: Mount Rainier National Park,Washington, USA

Questions: Does tree establishment: (1) occur at a treeline depressed by fire, (2) cause the forest line to ascend upslope, and/or (3) alter landscape heterogeneity? (4) What abiotic and biotic local site conditions are most important in structuring establishment patterns? (5) Does the abiotic setting become more important with increasing upslope distance from the forest line? Location: Western slopes of Mount Rainier, USA. Methods: We performed classification analysis of 1970 satellite imagery and 2003 aerial photography to delineate establishment. Local site conditions were calculated from a LIDAR‐based DEM, ancillary climate data, and 1970 tree locations in a GIS. We used logistic regression on a spatially weighted landscape matrix to rank variables. Results: Considerable establishment after 1970 caused forest line elevation to increase over 150 m in specific locations. Landscape heterogeneity increased with distance from the 1970 forest line. At a broad spatial context, we found establishment was most common near existing trees (0‐50 m) and at low elevations (1250‐1350 m). Slope aspect (W, NW, N, NE, and E), slope angle (40‐60°), and other abiotic factors emerged as important predictors of establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line to restricted spatial extents. Conclusions: Favorable climatic conditions likely triggered widespread tree establishment. Readily available seed probably enhanced establishment rates near sexually mature trees, particularly in the less stressful environment at low elevations. The mass effect of nearly ubiquitous establishment in these areas may have obscured the importance of the abiotic setting to restricted spatial extents. Topographic variability apparently produced favorable sites that facilitated opportunistic establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line, thereby enabling additional trees to invade the alpine tundra.