Black Bear Movement and Food Conditioning in an Exurban Landscape

Conflicts between humans and wildlife have become increasingly important challenges for resource managers along the urban-wildland interface. Food conditioning (i.e., reliance by an animal on anthropogenic foods) of American black bears (Ursus americanus) is related to conflict behavior (i.e., being bold or aggressive toward humans, consuming human food or garbage, causing property damage) and often occurs in communities adjacent to Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM or Park), USA. The goal of our study was to evaluate black bear space use in GRSM and in exurban areas on surrounding private lands and to identify factors associated with food conditioning and conflict behavior. We radio-collared 53 bears (29 males, 24 females) from 2015 to 2017 to compare space use characteristics and used carbon isotopic signatures (δ¹³C) from bear hair to assess food conditioning. We then performed an integrated step selection function (iSSF) analysis to characterize and compare movement and resource use as related to food conditioning. Based on the stable isotope analyses, 24 bears were classified as food conditioned (FC; 16 males and 8 females) and 37 were not food conditioned (NFC; 14 males and 23 females). Annual 95% kernel density estimate (KDE) home ranges and 50% KDE core area estimates of female and male bears did not differ by level of food conditioning (i.e., mean δ¹³C), but 95% and 50% home ranges of FC females were smaller than NFC females when data from 2015, a year of food scarcity and abnormally large home ranges, were excluded. The mean proportion of exurban development (e.g., roads, buildings, openings) within 95% KDE and 50% KDE home ranges of females increased with mean δ¹³C (i.e., greater food conditioning). The iSSF models indicated that FC bears were more likely to use forest openings associated with higher levels of development than NFC bears. We used those models to demonstrate how landscape modifications can reduce bear use of exurban areas, particularly for NFC bears. Our stable isotope, movement, and resource use data indicate that conflict behaviors displayed by many bears within GRSM were learned in areas outside Park boundaries. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Does Aversive Conditioning Reduce Human—Black Bear Conflict?

ABSTRACT Aversive conditioning (AC) has the potential to temporarily reduce conflicts between humans and black bears (Ursus americanus). From 2002 to 2005, I evaluated the effectiveness of projectiles with varying impact intensities, pepper spray, and chasing on approximately 150 bears in Sequoia National Park. Aversive conditioning was successful in keeping bears that were not food-conditioned from becoming food-conditioned. For the bears that were already food-conditioned, 17 of 29 bears subjected to AC abandoned unwanted behaviors, 6 required continual treatments, and 6 were killed or relocated. Success with food-conditioned bears was highest when AC was applied soon after bears obtained human food. Aversive conditioning was less successful on yearlings than adults. Rubber slugs were slightly more effective than lower impact projectiles.     

Grizzly bear responses to restrictions of recreation in Yellowstone National Park

Avoiding humans will be more difficult and energetically costly for animals as outdoor recreation increases and people venture farther into wildland areas that provide high-quality habitat for wildlife. Restricting human access can be an attractive management tool to mitigate effects of human recreation activities on wildlife; however, the efficacy of such measures is rarely assessed. In 1982, Yellowstone National Park identified areas important to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) to help protect critical grizzly bear habitat and reduce the likelihood of human injuries by bears. Referred to as bear management areas (BMAs), human access is restricted in these areas for 2–8 months each year, with timing and type of restrictions varying by area. We examined 2 datasets to evaluate grizzly bear selection of BMAs and differences of bear density in BMAs and non-BMAs. First, we used 17 years of recent global positioning system telemetry data for grizzly bears to assess their selection of BMAs during periods when human access was allowed, and when access was restricted. We used step-selection functions to test the hypothesis that bears spend time in places that allow them to avoid people and select quality food sources. There was support that grizzly bears differentially select for BMAs regardless of whether human access was restricted at the time, compared with areas outside BMAs, and that selection changed with sex and season. Only males during the summer and hyperphagic seasons changed their selection of BMAs based on whether access restrictions were in place, and overall, male bears preferred unrestricted BMAs (BMAs without restrictions in place). Females preferentially selected BMAs regardless of whether the area had access restrictions in place only during the mating season. Individuals varied widely in their preference for BMAs and access restrictions. Bears likely choose to spend time in BMAs based on available food resources rather than restrictions to human access. Supporting this interpretation, our analyses indicated that a greater proportion of BMA in an area was associated with higher densities of grizzly bear. Thus, restrictions to human access likely help reduce the potential for human–bear interactions, accomplishing one of the original objectives for establishing the BMAs.     

Dietary adjustability of grizzly bears and American black bears in Yellowstone National Park

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and American black bears (U. americanus) are sympatric in much of Yellowstone National Park. Three primary bear foods, cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki), whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) nuts, and elk (Cervus elaphus), have declined in recent years. Because park managers and the public are concerned about the impact created by reductions in these foods, we quantified bear diets to determine how bears living near Yellowstone Lake are adjusting. We estimated diets using: 1) stable isotope and mercury analyses of hair samples collected from captured bears and from hair collection sites established along cutthroat trout spawning streams and 2) visits to recent locations occupied by bears wearing Global Positioning System collars to identify signs of feeding behavior and to collect scats for macroscopic identification of residues. Approximately 45 ± 22% ( ± SD) of the assimilated nitrogen consumed by male grizzly bears, 38 ± 20% by female grizzly bears, and 23 ± 7% by male and female black bears came from animal matter. These assimilated dietary proportions for female grizzly bears were the same as 10 years earlier in the Lake area and 30 years earlier in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. However, the proportion of meat in the assimilated diet of male grizzly bears decreased over both time frames. The estimated biomass of cutthroat trout consumed by grizzly bears and black bears declined 70% and 95%, respectively, in the decade between 1997–2000 and 2007–2009. Grizzly bears killed an elk calf every 4.3 ± 2.7 days and black bears every 8.0 ± 4.0 days during June. Elk accounted for 84% of all ungulates consumed by both bear species. Whitebark pine nuts continue to be a primary food source for both grizzly bears and black bears when abundant, but are replaced by false-truffles (Rhizopogon spp.) in the diets of female grizzly bears and black bears when nut crops are minimal. Thus, both grizzly bears and black bears continue to adjust to changing resources, with larger grizzly bears continuing to occupy a more carnivorous niche than the smaller, more herbivorous black bear. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Fatal attacks by American black bear on people: 1900–2009

At least 63 people were killed in 59 incidents by non-captive black bear (Ursus americanus) during 1900–2009. Fatal black bear attacks occurred in Canada and Alaska (n = 49) and in the lower 48 states (n = 14). There were 3.5 times as many fatal attacks in Canada and Alaska but only 1.75 times as many black bears, and much less human contact for black bears in Canada and Alaska. There was a weak positive correlation (r_s = 0.56, P ≤ 0.000) between the estimated size of a bear population within a given jurisdiction and the number of fatal black bear attacks. Some jurisdictions had no fatal black bear attacks but had large estimated black bear populations. Of fatal attacks, 86% (54 of 63, 1.08/yr) occurred between 1960 and 2009. There was positive linear relationship between the number of fatal black bear attacks per decade and human population size in the United States and Canada per decade (r² = 0.92, β = 0.000, P ≤ 0.001). Of fatal attacks, 91% (49 of 54) occurred on parties of 1 or 2 persons. In 38% (15 of 40) of incidents, peoples' food or garbage probably influenced the bear being in the attack location. We judged that the bear involved acted as a predator in 88% (49 of 56) of fatal incidents. Adult (n = 23) or subadult (n = 10) male bears were involved in 92% (33 of 36) of fatal predatory incidents, reflecting biological and behavioral differences between male and female bears. That most fatal black bear attacks were predatory and were carried out by 1 bear shows that females with young are not the most dangerous black bears. As a result of our research agencies managing black bear can more accurately understand the risk of being killed by a black bear, and can communicate this to the public. With training, people can learn to recognize the behaviors of a bear considering them as prey and can act to deter predation. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Contrasting Activity Patterns of Sympatric and Allopatric Black and Grizzly Bears

ABSTRACT The distribution of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and American black bears (U. americanus) overlaps in western North America. Few studies have detailed activity patterns where the species are sympatric and no studies contrasted patterns where populations are both sympatric and allopatric. We contrasted activity patterns for sympatric black and grizzly bears and for black bears allopatric to grizzly bears, how human influences altered patterns, and rates of grizzly-black bear predation. Activity patterns differed between black bear populations, with those sympatric to grizzly bears more day-active. Activity patterns of black bears allopatric with grizzly bears were similar to those of female grizzly bears; both were crepuscular and day-active. Male grizzly bears were crepuscular and night-active. Both species were more night-active and less day-active when ≤1 km from roads or developments. In our sympatric study area, 2 of 4 black bear mortalities were due to grizzly bear predation. Our results suggested patterns of activity that allowed for intra- and inter-species avoidance. National park management often results in convergence of locally high human densities in quality bear habitat. Our data provide additional understanding into how bears alter their activity patterns in response to other bears and humans and should help park managers minimize undesirable bear-human encounters when considering needs for temporal and spatial management of humans and human developments in bear habitats.     

Influence of fruit on habitat selection of Asian bears in a tropical forest

Wild bear populations in Southeast Asia are threatened with extinction, but the ecology and distribution of the 2 species occurring in the region's protected areas is poorly known, so there is little scientific basis underlying conservation strategies. We used bear signs, primarily claw marks on climbed trees, to study habitat selection and distribution of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and sun bear (Helarctos malayanus) across Khao Yai National Park, Thailand from March to December 2008. We found black bear claw marks in 24 of 30 random sample blocks (80%), indicating that this species was widely distributed across Khao Yai. Sun bear signs were much scarcer: their claw marks occurred in 11 blocks (37%); data were too sparse for sun bear so we limited our focus to Asiatic black bear. Using logistic regression, we found that fruit abundance best explained variation in presence of black bear, whereas human disturbance, distance to park edge, elevation, and ground cover had little influence. Fruits appear to be a key resource for Asiatic black bears, and factors affecting fruit abundance or shifts in seasonality (e.g., climate change) will impact bear populations. Knowledge of this relationship will allow managers to be more proactive in managing bears. We recommend using sign surveys for monitoring changes in black bear occupancy as they are inexpensive, efficient, and can be conducted by trained park rangers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Spatial variation in density of American black bears in northern Yellowstone National Park

The quality and availability of resources are known to influence spatial patterns of animal density. In Yellowstone National Park, relationships between the availability of resources and the distribution of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) have been explored but have yet to be examined in American black bears (Ursus americanus). We conducted non-invasive genetic sampling during 2017–2018 (mid-May to mid-July) and applied spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate density of black bears and examine associations with landscape features. In both years, density estimates were higher in forested vegetation communities, which provide food resources and thermal and security cover preferred by black bears, compared with non-forested areas. In 2017, density also varied by sex, with female densities being higher than males. Based on our estimates, the northern range of Yellowstone National Park supports one of the highest densities of black bears (20 black bears/100 km²) in the northern Rocky Mountains (6–12 black bears/100 km² in other regions). Given these high densities, black bears could influence other wildlife populations more than previously thought, such as through displacement of sympatric predators from kills. Our study provides the first spatially explicit estimates of density for black bears within an ecosystem that contains the majority of North America's large mammal species. Our density estimates provide a baseline that can be used for future research and management decisions of black bears, including efforts to reduce human–bear conflicts.     

Functional macronutritional generalism in a large omnivore,the brown bear

We combine a recently developed framework for describing dietary generalism with compositional data analysis to examine patterns of omnivory in a large widely distributed mammal. Using the brown bear (Ursus arctos) as a model species, we collected and analyzed data from the literature to estimate the proportions of macronutrients (protein, carbohydrate, and lipid) in the diets of bear populations. Across their range, bears consumed a diversity of foods that resulted in annual population diets that varied in macronutrient proportions, suggesting a wide fundamental macronutrient niche. The variance matrix of pairwise macronutrient log‐ratios indicated that the most variable macronutrient among diets was carbohydrate, while protein and lipid were more proportional or codependent (i.e., relatively more constant log‐ratios). Populations that consumed anthropogenic foods, such agricultural crops and supplementary feed (e.g., corn), had a higher geometric mean proportion of carbohydrate, and lower proportion of protein, in annual diets. Seasonally, mean diets were lower in protein and higher in carbohydrate, during autumn compared to spring. Populations with anthropogenic subsidies, however, had higher mean proportions of carbohydrate and lower protein, across seasons compared to populations with natural diets. Proportions of macronutrients similar to those selected in experiments by captive brown bears, and which optimized primarily fat mass gain, were observed among hyperphagic prehibernation autumn diets. However, the majority of these were from populations consuming anthropogenic foods, while diets of natural populations were more variable and typically higher in protein. Some anthropogenic diets were close to the proportions selected by captive bears during summer. Our results suggest that omnivory in brown bears is a functional adaptation enabling them to occupy a diverse range of habitats and tolerate variation in the nutritional composition and availability of food resources. Furthermore, we show that populations consuming human‐sourced foods have different dietary macronutrient proportions relative to populations with natural diets.     

Efficacy of firearms for bear deterrence in Alaska

We compiled, summarized, and reviewed 269 incidents of bear–human conflict involving firearms that occurred in Alaska during 1883–2009. Encounters involving brown bears (Ursus arctos; 218 incidents, 81%), black bears (Ursus americanus; 30 incidents, 11%), polar bears (Ursus maritimus; 6 incidents, 2%), and 15 (6%) unidentified species provided insight into firearms success and failure. A total of 444 people and at least 367 bears were involved in these incidents. We found no significant difference in success rates (i.e., success being when the bear was stopped in its aggressive behavior) associated with long guns (76%) and handguns (84%). Moreover, firearm bearers suffered the same injury rates in close encounters with bears whether they used their firearms or not. Bears were killed in 61% (n = 162) of bear–firearms incidents. Additionally, we identified multiple reasons for firearms failing to stop an aggressive bear. Using logistic regression, the best model for predicting a successful outcome for firearm users included species and cohort of bear, human activity at time of encounter, whether or not the bear charged, and if fish or game meat was present. Firearm variables (e.g., type of gun, number of shots) were not useful in predicting outcomes in bear–firearms incidents. Although firearms have failed to protect some users, they are the only deterrent that can lethally stop an aggressive bear. Where firearms have failed to protect people, we identified contributing causes. Our findings suggest that only those proficient in firearms use should rely on them for protection in bear country. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Efficacy of Bear Deterrent Spray in Alaska

Abstract: We present a comprehensive look at a sample of bear spray incidents that occurred in Alaska, USA, from 1985 to 2006. We analyzed 83 bear spray incidents involving brown bears (Ursus arctos; 61 cases, 74%), black bears (Ursus americanus; 20 cases, 24%), and polar bears (Ursus maritimus; 2 cases, 2%). Of the 72 cases where persons sprayed bears to defend themselves, 50 (69%) involved brown bears, 20 (28%) black bears, and 2 (3%) polar bears. Red pepper spray stopped bears' undesirable behavior 92% of the time when used on brown bears, 90% for black bears, and 100% for polar bears. Of all persons carrying sprays, 98% were uninjured by bears in close-range encounters. All bear—inflicted injuries (n = 3) associated with defensive spraying involved brown bears and were relatively minor (i.e., no hospitalization required). In 7% (5 of 71) of bear spray incidents, wind was reported to have interfered with spray accuracy, although it reached the bear in all cases. In 14% (10 of 71) of bear spray incidents, users reported the spray having had negative side effects upon themselves, ranging from minor irritation (11%, 8 of 71) to near incapacitation (3%, 2 of 71). Bear spray represents an effective alternative to lethal force and should be considered as an option for personal safety for those recreating and working in bear country. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):640–645; 2008)     

Chronological and Isotopic data support a revision for the timing of cave bear extinction in Mediterranean Europe

Abstract

The Cave Bear, Ursus spelaeus (sensu lato), was one of many megafaunal species that became extinct during the Late Pleistocene in Europe. With new data we revisit the debate about the extinction and paleoecology of this species by presenting new chronometric, isotopic and taphonomic evidence from two Palaeolithic cave bear sites in northeastern Italy: Paina Cave and Trene Cave. Two direct radiocarbon dates on well-preserved collagen have yielded ages around 24,200–23,500 cal yr BP, which make them the latest known representatives of the species in Europe. The carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopic values of bone collagen exhibit values similar to those of older cave bears from Swabian Jura and France, suggesting that the feedings preferences of cave bears remained unchanged until the disappearance of this species in Europe. Several bear remains preserved traces of human modification such as cut marks, which enables a reconstruction of the main steps of fur recovery and the butchering process. The broad range of plant types available and the favorable location of Berici Hills may have played an important role in the range expansion of cave bears and their interaction with the Paleolithic hunters settled the same area.     

Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin,Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010–2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large‐bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice‐free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on‐ice feeding opportunities for polar bears.     

Quantifying carnivory by grizzly bears in a multi-ungulate system

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) cohabit landscapes with a diversity of ungulates, but the degree to which grizzly bears are carnivorous is unclear and likely varies across landscapes. We used stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen to infer seasonal diets of grizzly bears in northern British Columbia while studying predator–prey dynamics in a largely undisturbed system. We found high seasonal variation in diets among individuals; males consumed more ungulate prey than did females throughout the year. In fall, both sexes increased their consumption of prey; large ungulates constituted 51% and 32% of the fall diets of males and females, respectively. This increase in carnivory appeared to be primarily associated with consumption of elk (Cervus elaphus). Estimates of prey proportions in the diets of grizzly bears were highly sensitive to the range of tissue to diet discrimination values that were incorporated in isotope models. Small changes in discrimination values resulted in estimated prey intakes that varied more than threefold as a percentage of the diet depending on sex and season. We caution against using standard discrimination values, and we recommend that diet reconstructions using stable isotopes be based on tissue-specific values that would be appropriate for the species of interest. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Effect of mast production on home range use of Japanese black bears

Although bears may expand their home ranges in times of low food availability, it is unclear what mechanisms directly affect home range extension in times of low mast production in Japanese forests. To clarify the relationship between home range utilization by Japanese black bears (Ursus thibetanus) and abundance and distribution of mast production, we collected data on habitat use from 13 bears (6 M and 7 F) fitted with Global Positioning System (GPS) collars equipped with activity sensors in the Ashio-Nikko Mountains on the eastern part of Honshu Island, Japan, during 2006–2008. We also collected data on mast production by 5 Fagaceae species. We categorized each fall as either poor (2006) or relatively-good (2007 and 2008) based on mast production. Bears used small patches in their large home ranges and the distances between core areas increased in the fall of 2006, when the mast of Japanese oak (Quercus crispula) were poorly distributed. Our findings suggest that localized patches of Japanese oak are the staple food for bears in our study area, even in poor mast years. However, in the fall of 2006, we also found that bears moved to lower elevations, relative to 2007 and 2008, in search of alternative foods (e.g., Konara oak [Q. serrata] and Japanese chestnut [Castanea crenata]), which were mostly at lower elevations and produced mast consistently over the study period. Our results suggest that dispersion and elevational distribution of mast-producing trees affect bear habitat use in fall, as well as amount of mast. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Factors associated with black bear density and implications for management

Wildlife density estimates are important to accurately formulate population management objectives and understand the relationship between habitat characteristics and a species’ abundance. Despite advances in density and abundance estimation methods, management of common game species continues to be challenged by a lack of reliable population estimates. In Washington, USA, statewide American black bear (Ursus americanus) abundance estimates are predicated on density estimates derived from research in the 1970s and are hypothesized to be a function of precipitation and vegetation, with higher densities in western Washington. To evaluate current black bear density and landscape relationships in Washington, we conducted a 4-year capture-recapture study in 2 areas of the North Cascade Mountains using 2 detection methods, non-invasive DNA collection and physical capture and deployment of global positioning system (GPS) collars. We integrated GPS telemetry from collared bears with spatial capture-recapture (SCR) data and created a SCR-resource selection model to estimate density as a function of spatial covariates and test the hypothesis that density is higher in areas with greater vegetative food resources. We captured and collared 118 bears 132 times and collected 7,863 hair samples at hair traps where we identified 537 bears from 1,237 detections via DNA. The most-supported model in the western North Cascades depicted a negative relationship between black bear density and an index of human development. We estimated bear density at 20.1 bears/100 km², but density varied from 13.5/100 km² to 27.8 bears/100 km² depending on degree of human development. The model best supported by the data in the eastern North Cascades estimated an average density of 19.2 bears/100 km², which was positively correlated with primary productivity, with resulting density estimates ranging from 7.1/100 km² to 33.6 bears/100 km². The hypothesis that greater precipitation and associated vegetative production in western Washington supports greater bear density compared to eastern Washington was not supported by our data. In western Washington, empirically derived average density estimates (including cubs) were nearly 50% lower than managers expected prior to our research. In eastern Washington average black bear density was predominantly as expected, but localized areas of high primary productivity supported greater than anticipated bear densities. Our findings underscore the importance that black bear density is not likely uniform and management risk may be increased if an average density is applied at too large a scale. Disparities between expected and empirically derived bear density illustrate the need for more rigorous monitoring to understand processes that affect population numbers throughout the jurisdiction, and suggest that management plans may need to be reevaluated to determine if current harvest strategies are achieving population objectives. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Hazards Affecting Grizzly Bear Survival in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Abstract: During the past 2 decades, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) has increased in numbers and expanded its range. Early efforts to model grizzly bear mortality were principally focused within the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone, which currently represents only about 61% of known bear distribution in the GYE. A more recent analysis that explored one spatial covariate that encompassed the entire GYE suggested that grizzly bear survival was highest in Yellowstone National Park, followed by areas in the grizzly bear Recovery Zone outside the park, and lowest outside the Recovery Zone. Although management differences within these areas partially explained differences in grizzly bear survival, these simple spatial covariates did not capture site-specific reasons why bears die at higher rates outside the Recovery Zone. Here, we model annual survival of grizzly bears in the GYE to 1) identify landscape features (i.e., foods, land management policies, or human disturbances factors) that best describe spatial heterogeneity among bear mortalities, 2) spatially depict the differences in grizzly bear survival across the GYE, and 3) demonstrate how our spatially explicit model of survival can be linked with demographic parameters to identify source and sink habitats. We used recent data from radiomarked bears to estimate survival (1983–2003) using the known-fate data type in Program MARK. Our top models suggested that survival of independent (age ≥ 2 yr) grizzly bears was best explained by the level of human development of the landscape within the home ranges of bears. Survival improved as secure habitat and elevation increased but declined as road density, number of homes, and site developments increased. Bears living in areas open to fall ungulate hunting suffered higher rates of mortality than bears living in areas closed to hunting. Our top model strongly supported previous research that identified roads and developed sites as hazards to grizzly bear survival. We also demonstrated that rural homes and ungulate hunting negatively affected survival, both new findings. We illustrate how our survival model, when linked with estimates of reproduction and survival of dependent young, can be used to identify demographically the source and sink habitats in the GYE. Finally, we discuss how this demographic model constitutes one component of a habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation. Such a framework can spatially depict the areas of risk in otherwise good habitat, providing a focus for resource management in the GYE.     

Using stage‐based system dynamics modeling for demographic management of captive populations

Management of captive populations relies on a complex synthesis of genetic and demographic analyses to guide populations toward sustainability. Demographic analyses of captive populations currently utilize age‐based matrix projections to predict a population's trajectory. An alternate approach is to use a stage‐based, system dynamics model for captive systems. Such models can more easily incorporate complex captive systems in which population dynamics are dependent on a combination of management and a species' biology. By linking these two areas, population managers can gain a more accurate understanding of how management decisions impact captive populations and which aspects of a species' demography should be of special concern in the future. We present a general stage‐based system dynamics model that has been developed for use with captive populations. The utility of the model is then illustrated by applying it to three captive bear populations: spectacled bears (Tremarctos ornatus), sloth bears (Melursus ursinus), and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus). Zoo Biol 22:45–64, 2003. © 2003 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait,Canada and Greenland

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of Earlier Sea Ice Breakup on Survival and Population Size of Polar Bears in Western Hudson Bay

ABSTRACT Some of the most pronounced ecological responses to climatic warming are expected to occur in polar marine regions, where temperature increases have been the greatest and sea ice provides a sensitive mechanism by which climatic conditions affect sympagic (i.e., with ice) species. Population-level effects of climatic change, however, remain difficult to quantify. We used a flexible extension of Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture models to estimate population size and survival for polar bears (Ursus maritimus), one of the most ice-dependent of Arctic marine mammals. We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020-1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794-1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5–19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91-0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88-0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival. It may also explain why Churchill, like other communities along the western coast of Hudson Bay, has experienced an increase in human-polar bear interactions in recent years. Earlier sea ice breakup may have resulted in a larger number of nutritionally stressed polar bears, which are encroaching on human habitations in search of supplemental food. Because western Hudson Bay is near the southern limit of the species' range, our findings may foreshadow the demographic responses and management challenges that more northerly polar bear populations will experience if climatic warming in the Arctic continues as projected.