A multispecies approach to manage effects of land cover and weather on upland game birds

Loss and degradation of grasslands in the Great Plains region have resulted in major declines in abundance of grassland bird species. To ensure future viability of grassland bird populations, it is crucial to evaluate specific effects of environmental factors among species to determine drivers of population decline and develop effective conservation strategies. We used threshold models to quantify the effects of land cover and weather changes in "lesser prairie‐chicken" and "greater prairie‐chicken" (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus and T. cupido, respectively), northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus), and ring‐necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus). We demonstrated a novel approach for estimating landscape conditions needed to optimize abundance across multiple species at a variety of spatial scales. Abundance of all four species was highest following wet summers and dry winters. Prairie chicken and ring‐necked pheasant abundance was highest following cool winters, while northern bobwhite abundance was highest following warm winters. Greater prairie chicken and northern bobwhite abundance was also highest following cooler summers. Optimal abundance of each species occurred in landscapes that represented a grassland and cropland mosaic, though prairie chicken abundance was optimized in landscapes with more grassland and less edge habitat than northern bobwhites and ring‐necked pheasants. Because these effects differed among species, managing for an optimal landscape for multiple species may not be the optimal scenario for any one species.     

Restoration Efforts for Plant and Bird Communities in Tallgrass Prairies Using Prescribed Burning and Mowing

Recent losses and fragmentation of tallgrass prairie habitat to agriculture and urban development have led to corresponding declines in diversity and abundance of plants and birds associated with such habitat. Mowing and burning are alternative management strategies for restoring and rejuvenating prairies in fragmented landscapes, but their specific, comparative effects are the subjects of ongoing evaluation. We compared the responses of plant and bird communities on four sets of mowed, burned, and untreated sites of small (3–10 ha), fragmented tallgrass prairies at the DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR), Iowa, U.S.A., during May–July in 1998 and 1999. Species richness and diversity of plants, resident grassland birds, and communities of birds associated with grassland edges (edge species) were independent of treatment. Although not affecting species richness and diversity in plant communities, mowed sites ranked lower in total plant coverage and total forb coverage than burned sites or untreated sites. In contrast, untreated sites had more coverage by shrubs, suggesting that mowing and burning did retard shrub encroachment. Overall, abundance and diversity of plants and birds were generally insensitive to management strategies. Small, fragmented sites of rare habitat may not respond in the short term to management treatments and may not be capable of supporting highly diverse communities, no matter how intensively manipulated. It is more probable that diversity of native prairie communities can be enhanced and restored only through long‐term efforts, acquisition of large land units capable of supporting stable populations, and deliberate reintroduction of species of high conservation value.     

Responses of plant and bird communities to prescribed burning in tallgrass prairies

Historic losses and fragmentation of tallgrass prairie habitat to agriculture and urban development have led to declines in diversity and abundance of plants and birds associated with such habitat. Prescribed burning is a management strategy that has potential for restoring and rejuvenating prairies in fragmented landscapes, and through such restoration, might create habitat for birds dependent upon prairies. To provide improved data for management decision-making regarding the use of prescribed fire in tallgrass prairies, we compared responses of plant and bird communities on five burned and five unburned tallgrass prairie fragments at the DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge, Iowa, USA, from 1995 to 1997. Overall species richness and diversity were unaffected by burning, but individual species of plants and birds were affected by year-treatment interactions, including northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and ring-necked pheasant (Phasianus colchicus), which showed time-delayed increases in density on burned sites. Analyses of species/area relationships indicated that, collectively, many small sites did make significant contributions to plant biodiversity at landscape levels, supporting the overall conservation value of prairie fragments. In contrast, most birds species were present on larger sites. Thus, higher biodiversity in bird communities which contain area-sensitive species might require larger sites able to support larger, more stable populations, greater habitat heterogeneity, and greater opportunity for niche separation.     

Contrasting patterns of mitochondrial and microsatellite population structure in fragmented populations of greater prairie-chickens

Greater prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) were once found throughout the tallgrass prairie of midwestern North America but over the last century these prairies have been lost or fragmented by human land use. As a consequence, many current populations of prairie-chickens have become isolated and small. This fragmentation of populations is expected to lead to reductions in genetic variation as a result of random genetic drift and a decrease in gene flow. As expected, we found that genetic variation at both microsatellite DNA and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers was reduced in smaller populations, particularly in Wisconsin. There was relatively little range-wide geographical structure (FST) when we examined mtDNA haplotypes but there was a significant positive relationship between genetic (FST) and geographical distance (isolation by distance). In contrast, microsatellite DNA loci revealed significant geographical structure (FST) and a weak effect of isolation by distance throughout the range. These patterns were much stronger when populations with reduced levels of genetic variability (Wisconsin) were removed from the analyses. This suggests that the effects of genetic drift were stronger than gene flow at microsatellite loci, whereas these forces were in range-wide equilibrium at mtDNA markers. These differences between the two molecular markers may be explained by a larger effective population size (Ne) for mtDNA, which is expected in species such as prairie-chickens that have female-biased dispersal and high levels of polygyny. Our results suggest that historic populations of prairie-chickens were once interconnected by gene flow but current populations are now isolated. Thus, maintaining gene flow may be important for the long-term persistence of prairie-chicken populations.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Connectivity of prairie dog colonies in an altered landscape: inferences from analysis of microsatellite DNA variation

Connectivity of populations influences the degree to which species maintain genetic diversity and persist despite local extinctions. Natural landscape features are known to influence connectivity, but global anthropogenic landscape change underscores the importance of quantifying how human-modified landscapes disrupt connectivity of natural populations. Grasslands of western North America have experienced extensive habitat alteration, fragmenting populations of species such as black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). Population sizes and the geographic range of prairie dogs have been declining for over a century due to habitat loss, disease, and eradication efforts. In many places, prairie dogs have persisted in the face of emerging urban landscapes that carve habitat into smaller and smaller fragments separated by uninhabitable areas. In extreme cases, prairie dog colonies are completely bounded by urbanization. Connectivity is particularly important for prairie dogs because colonies suffer high probabilities of extirpation by plague, and dispersal permits recolonization. Here we explore connectivity of prairie dog populations using analyses of 11 microsatellite loci for 9 prairie dog colonies spanning the fragmented landscape of Boulder County, Colorado. Isolation-by-resistance modeling suggests that wetlands and high intensity urbanization limit movement of prairie dogs. However, prairie dogs appear to move moderately well through low intensity development (including roads) and freely through cropland and grassland. Additionally, there is a marked decline in gene flow between colonies with increasing geographic distance, indicating isolation by distance even in an altered landscape. Our results suggest that prairie dog colonies retain some connectivity despite fragmentation by urbanization and agricultural development.     

Fine‐scale distribution modeling of avian malaria vectors in north‐central Kansas

Infectious diseases increasingly play a role in the decline of wildlife populations. Vector‐borne diseases, in particular, have been implicated in mass mortality events and localized population declines are threatening some species with extinction. Transmission patterns for vector‐borne diseases are influenced by the spatial distribution of vectors and are therefore not uniform across the landscape. Avian malaria is a globally distributed vector‐borne disease that has been shown to affect endemic bird populations of North America. We evaluated shared habitat use between avian malaria vectors, mosquitoes in the genus Culex and a native grassland bird, the Greater Prairie‐Chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), by (1) modeling the distribution of Culex spp. occurrence across the Smoky Hills of north‐central Kansas using detection data and habitat variables, (2) assessing the occurrence of these vectors at nests of female Greater Prairie‐Chickens, and (3) evaluating if shared habitat use between vectors and hosts is correlated with malarial infection status of the Greater Prairie‐Chicken. Our results indicate that Culex occurrence increased at nest locations compared to other available but unoccupied grassland habitats; however the shared habitat use between vectors and hosts did not result in an increased prevalence of malarial parasites in Greater Prairie‐Chickens that occupied habitats with high vector occurrence. We developed a predictive map to illustrate the associations between Culex occurrence and infection status with malarial parasites in an obligate grassland bird that may be used to guide management decisions to limit the spread of vector‐borne diseases.     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Dispersal ability and host-plant characteristics influence spatial population structure of monophagous beetles

Abstract.  1. Dispersal plays an integral role in determining spatial population structure and, consequently, the long-term survival of many species. Theoretical studies indicate that dispersal increases with population density and decreasing habitat stability. In the case of monophagous insect herbivores, the stability of host-plant populations may influence their spatial population structure.
2. The tallgrass prairie in Iowa, U.S.A. is highly fragmented and most prairie insects face a landscape with fewer habitat patches and smaller host-plant populations than 150 years ago, potentially making dispersal between patches difficult. Some herbivores, however, use native plant species with weedy characteristics that have increased in abundance because of disturbances.
3. Mark–recapture data and presence–absence surveys were used to examine dispersal and spatial population structure of two monophagous beetles with host plants that exhibit different population stability and have responded differently to fragmentation of tallgrass prairie.
4. Chrysochus auratus Fabricius exhibits a patchy population structure and has relatively large dispersal distances and frequencies. Its host plant is variable locally in time and space, but is more abundant than 150 years ago. The other species, Anomoea laticlavia Forster, exhibits a metapopulation or non-equilibrium population structure and has relatively small dispersal distances and frequencies. Its host-plant populations are stable in time and space.
5. The results indicate that dispersal ability of monophagous beetles reflects the life-history dynamics of their host plants, but the spatial population structure exhibited today is strongly influenced by how the host plants have responded to the fragmentation process over both time and space.     

Rapid Decline of a Grassland System and Its Ecological and Conservation Implications

One of the most important conservation issues in ecology is the imperiled state of grassland ecosystems worldwide due to land conversion, desertification, and the loss of native populations and species. The Janos region of northwestern Mexico maintains one of the largest remaining black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colony complexes in North America and supports a high diversity of threatened and endangered species. Yet, cattle grazing, agriculture, and drought have greatly impacted the region. We evaluated the impact of human activities on the Janos grasslands, comparing changes in the vertebrate community over the last two decades. Our results reveal profound, rapid changes in the Janos grassland community, demonstrating large declines in vertebrate abundance across all taxonomic groups. We also found that the 55,000 ha prairie dog colony complex has declined by 73% since 1988. The prairie dog complex has become increasingly fragmented, and their densities have shown a precipitous decline over the years, from an average density of 25 per ha in 1988 to 2 per ha in 2004. We demonstrated that prairie dogs strongly suppressed woody plant encroachment as well as created open grassland habitat by clearing woody vegetation, and found rapid invasion of shrubland once the prairie dogs disappeared from the grasslands. Comparison of grasslands and shrublands showed markedly different species compositions, with species richness being greatest when both habitats were considered together. Our data demonstrate the rapid decline of a grassland ecosystem, and documents the dramatic loss in biodiversity over a very short time period concomitant with anthropogenic grassland degradation and the decline of a keystone species.     

Relatedness of Macrophomina phaseolina isolates from tallgrass prairie, maize, soybean and sorghum

Agricultural and wild ecosystems may interact through shared pathogens such as Macrophomina phaseolina , a generalist clonal fungus with more than 284 plant hosts that is likely to become more important under climate change scenarios of increased heat and drought stress. To evaluate the degree of subdivision in populations of M. phaseolina in Kansas agriculture and wildlands, we compared 143 isolates from maize fields adjacent to tallgrass prairie, nearby sorghum fields, widely dispersed soybean fields and isolates from eight plant species in tallgrass prairie. Isolate growth phenotypes were evaluated on a medium containing chlorate. Genetic characteristics were analysed based on amplified fragment length polymorphisms and the sequence of the rDNA-internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region. The average genetic similarity was 58% among isolates in the tallgrass prairie, 71% in the maize fields, 75% in the sorghum fields and 80% in the dispersed soybean fields. The isolates were divided into four clusters: one containing most of the isolates from maize and soybean, two others containing isolates from wild plants and sorghum, and a fourth containing a single isolate recovered from Solidago canadensis in the tallgrass prairie. Most of the sorghum isolates had the dense phenotype on media containing chlorate, while those from other hosts had either feathery or restricted phenotypes. These results suggest that the tallgrass prairie supports a more diverse population of M. phaseolina per area than do any of the crop species. Subpopulations show incomplete specialization by host. These results also suggest that inoculum produced in agriculture may influence tallgrass prairie communities, and conversely that different pathogen subpopulations in tallgrass prairie can interact there to generate 'hybrids' with novel genetic profiles and pathogenic capabilities.     

Interactions of the bacterial assemblages of a prairie stream with dissolved organic carbon from riparian vegetation

The zonation of riparian vegetation on the Konza Prairie Research Natural Area of Kansas (tallgrass prairie ecosystem) provided a situation where the influences on uptake rates of the different DOC qualities could be measured in the field. Leachates from grasses disappeared rapidly from stream water in in situ chambers at upstream sites in grassland reaches and at downstream sites in forested reaches. The reverse observation, uptake of leachates from trees, revealed that DOC disappeared rapidly from chambers placed in the forested reaches but bacteria in the grassland reaches did not utilize tree leachate as rapidly. The pattern varies seasonally. The interpretation of these observations was aided by aseptic laboratory culture on the different substrate types and by measurements in poisoned chambers to evaluate abiotic uptake.     

Fine-scale habitat associations of Oklahoma's longspurs

Overwintering is a key demographic stage for migratory birds but remains poorly understood, especially among multiple declining grassland bird species. The non-breeding ranges all 4 species of longspur (i.e., chestnut-collared [Calcarius ornatus], Smith's [C. pictus], Lapland [C. lapponicus], thick-billed [Rhynchophanes mccownii]) overlap in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, USA, making this region ideal to study their wintering ecology. We evaluated the relationship between wintering longspur occurrence and fine-scale habitat characteristics using a combination of standardized bird surveys and vegetation plot sampling. Our study encompassed large, representative tracts of 3 prairie ecosystems (i.e., shortgrass, mixed-grass, and tallgrass prairies) that intersect within the Southern Great Plains, during winters of 2018–2019 and 2019–2020. Using randomization tests and classification trees, we characterized longspur habitats and compared these associations across the 3 prairie ecosystems. Fine-scale winter habitats (horizontal structure, vertical structure, and species compositions) varied among all 4 longspur species, varied at very fine scales, and differed between grassland types. Our findings can be applied to the management of grasslands such as decreasing vegetation height in mixed-grass prairies for chestnut-collared longspurs or removing woody vegetation in shortgrass prairies for thick-billed longspurs to help develop full-life cycle conservation for longspurs, which have experienced population declines.     

Low genetic differentiation between populations of an endemic prairie katydid despite habitat loss and fragmentation

Tallgrass prairie habitats within North America have suffered severe fragmentation and habitat loss as land has been converted for agricultural purposes. Habitat loss and fragmentation can affect gene flow and the genetic structure of insect populations. Neoconocephalus bivocatus is a prairie obligate katydid found only in isolated prairie patches. We compared genetic diversity and population differentiation using AFLP markers in N. bivocatus and N. robustus, a grassland generalist that is not isolated to prairie fragments and occupies a more contiguous range. Similar levels of genetic diversity were present within populations of both species. While population genetic structure was found in both species, there was no relationship between assigned genotypes and sampling localities. This genetic structure may instead be evidence of a past barrier to gene flow that has since been removed. Genetic differentiation within both species was low, with no evidence of a correlation with geographic distance, indicating neither species is dispersal limited at these distances. We see no significant reduction in genetic diversity or genetic differentiation within N. bivocatus when compared to N. robustus. We therefore conclude that while N. bivocatus utilizes a fragmented landscape, long-distance dispersal likely maintains gene flow between isolated prairie patches.     

Assessing the Rate, Mechanisms, and Consequences of the Conversion of Tallgrass Prairie to Juniperus virginiana Forest

We assessed the determinants and consequences of the expansion of Juniperus virginiana L. (red cedar) populations into central US grasslands using historical aerial photos and field measurements of forest extent, tree growth, fire-induced mortality, and responses in herbaceous species diversity and productivity. Photos from northeast Kansas dating back to 1956 indicate that native tallgrass prairie can be converted to closed-canopy red cedar forest in as little as 40 years (a 2.3% increase in forest cover per year). Mean tree density in 21 forested sites ranged from 130 to 3500 trees/ha, with most sites at more than 800 trees/ha. In younger stands, maximum growth rates of individual red cedar trees exceeded 20 cm/y in height. Land management practices were critical to the establishment and growth of red cedar forest. Grazing reduced the fuel loads by more than 30% in tallgrass prairie. Based on measurements of mortality for more than 1800 red cedar trees, fire-induced mortality in grazed areas averaged 31.6% versus more than 90% at ungrazed sites. When tallgrass prairie was converted to red cedar forest, herbaceous species diversity and productivity were drastically reduced, and most grassland species were virtually eliminated. Consequently, community structure shifted from dominance by herbaceous C₄ species to evergreen woody C₃ species; this shift is likely to be accompanied by alterations in carbon storage and other ecosystem processes in a relatively short time period. Here we present a conceptual model that integrates the ecological and socioeconomic factors that underlie the conversion of grassland to red cedar forest. Received 29 August 2001; accepted 5 February 2002.     

Response of grassland birds to management in national battlefield parks

Grassland birds are in steep decline, with population declines reported in 74% of North American grassland species in the past 50 years. Declines are particularly severe in the eastern United States where they are influenced by habitat loss and alteration due to urbanization, forest regrowth, and agricultural intensification. The United States National Park Service maintains civil war battlefields in the eastern United States as historical and cultural parks that may also provide habitat refuge for grassland birds within an increasingly urbanized matrix. To assess the conservation importance of battlefield parks and the role of park management in sustaining grassland birds, we surveyed for 2 declining grassland-breeding species, eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna) and grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), at 242 points across 4 battlefield parks in Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, USA, from 2014–2019 and in 2021. We modeled the effects of park management activities (prescribed fire, agricultural leases, and delayed harvest) and habitat and landscape characteristics on breeding-season occupancy. There was support for the influence of local habitat features, landscape, and management. Breeding-season occupancy of both species was consistently higher in hayfields and pasture than in row crops, and both species responded positively to hay and crop harvest delays intended for grassland bird conservation. Prescribed fire within the past 2 years had a positive effect on occupancy of grasshopper sparrows but did not influence eastern meadowlarks. Eastern meadowlarks responded to land cover at multiple spatial scales that are influenced by land use within and outside the parks. Management activities that maintain the parks' cultural goals, including partnerships between national parks and private agricultural operators, are likely to provide valuable habitat for these 2 obligate grassland birds.     

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives,Landowner Decisions,and Biological Population Outcomes

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.     

Responses to land cover and grassland management vary across life‐history stages for a grassland specialist

Grassland birds have exhibited dramatic and widespread declines since the mid‐20th century. Greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) are considered an umbrella species for grassland conservation and are frequent targets of management, but their responses to land use and management can be quite variable. We used data collected during 2007–2009 and 2014–2015 to investigate effects of land use and grassland management practices on habitat selection and survival rates of greater prairie chickens in central Wisconsin, USA. We examined habitat, nest‐site, and brood‐rearing site selection by hens and modeled effects of land cover and management on survival rates of hens, nests, and broods. Prairie chickens consistently selected grassland over other cover types, but selection or avoidance of management practices varied among life‐history stages. Hen, nest, and brood survival rates were influenced by different land cover types and management practices. At the landscape scale, hens selected areas where brush and trees had been removed during the previous year, which increased hen survival. Hens selected nest sites in hay fields and brood‐rearing sites in burned areas, but prescribed fire had a negative influence on hen survival. Brood survival rates were positively associated with grazing and were highest when home ranges contained ≈15%–20% shrub/tree cover. The effects of landscape composition on nest survival were ambiguous. Collectively, our results highlight the importance of evaluating responses to management efforts across a range of life‐history stages and suggest that a variety of management practices are likely necessary to provide structurally heterogeneous, high‐quality habitat for greater prairie chickens. Brush and tree removal, grazing, hay cultivation, and prescribed fire may be especially beneficial for prairie chickens in central Wisconsin, but trade‐offs among life‐history stages and the timing of management practices must be considered carefully.     

Extremes of heat,drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg‐laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range‐wide declines.     

Spatial Models of Northern Bobwhite Populations for Conservation Planning

Abstract: Since 1980, northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) range-wide populations declined 3.9% annually. Within the West Gulf Coastal Plain Bird Conservation Region in the south-central United States, populations of this quail species have declined 6.8% annually. These declines sparked calls for land use change and prompted implementation of various conservation practices. However, to effectively reverse these declines and restore northern bobwhite to their former population levels, habitat conservation and management efforts must target establishment and maintenance of sustainable populations. To provide guidance for conservation and restoration of habitat capable of supporting sustainable northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain, we modeled their spatial distribution using landscape characteristics derived from 1992 National Land Cover Data and bird detections, from 1990 to 1994, along 10-stop Breeding Bird Survey route segments. Four landscape metrics influenced detections of northern bobwhite: detections were greater in areas with more grassland and increased aggregation of agricultural lands, but detections were reduced in areas with increased density of land cover edge and grassland edge. Using these landscape metrics, we projected the abundance and spatial distribution of northern bobwhite populations across the entire West Gulf Coastal Plain. Predicted populations closely approximated abundance estimates from a different cadre of concurrently collected data but model predictions did not accurately reflect bobwhite detections along species-specific call-count routes in Arkansas and Louisiana. Using similar methods, we also projected northern bobwhite population distribution circa 1980 based on Land Use Land Cover data and bird survey data from 1976 to 1984. We compared our 1980 spatial projections with our spatial estimate of 1992 populations to identify areas of population change. Additionally, we used our projection of the spatial distribution and abundance of bobwhite to predict areas of population sustainability. Our projections of population change and sustainability provide guidance for targeting habitat conservation and rehabilitation efforts for restoration of northern bobwhite populations in the West Gulf Coastal Plain.