Predators in natural fragments: foraging ecology of wolves in British Columbia's central and north coast archipelago

Aim Predator–prey dynamics in fragmented areas may be influenced by spatial features of the landscape. Although little is known about these processes, an increasingly fragmented planet underscores the urgency to predict its consequences. Accordingly, our aim was to examine foraging behaviour of an apex mammalian predator, the wolf (Canis lupus), in an archipelago environment. Location Mainland and adjacent archipelago of British Columbia, Canada; a largely pristine and naturally fragmented landscape with islands of variable size and isolation. Methods We sampled 30 mainland watersheds and 29 islands for wolf faeces in summers 2000 and 2001 and identified prey remains. We examined broad geographical patterns and detailed biogeographical variables (area and isolation metrics) as they relate to prey consumed. For island data, we used Akaike Information Criteria to guide generalized linear regression model selection to predict probability of black‐tailed deer (main prey; Odocoileus hemionus) in faeces. Results Black‐tailed deer was the most common item in occurrence per faeces (63%) and occurrence per item (53%) indices, representing about 63% of mammalian biomass. Wolves consumed more deer on islands near the mainland (65% occurrence per item) than on the mainland (39%) and outer islands (45%), where other ungulates (mainland only) and small mammals replaced deer. On islands, the probability of detecting deer was influenced primarily by island distance to mainland (not by area or inter‐landmass distance), suggesting limited recolonization by deer from source populations as a causal mechanism. Main conclusions Although sampling was limited in time, consistent patterns among islands suggest that population dynamics in isolated fragments are less stable and can result in depletion of prey. This may have important implications in understanding predator–prey communities in isolation, debate regarding wolf–deer systems and logging in temperate rain forests, and reserve design.     

Genetics and conservation of wolves Canis lupus in Europe

• 1 The wolf Canis lupus, the most widespread of the four species of large carnivores in Europe, after centuries of population decline and eradication, is now recovering in many countries. Wolves contribute to regulating prey–predator dynamics and interact with human activities, mainly livestock farming and ungulate hunting. Although wolves are protected in most European countries, illegal or incidental killing is widespread.
• 2 Wolf populations do not show any apparent phylogeographic structuring worldwide. Molecular and morphological studies of historical samples showed evidence of wolf ecomorph extinctions, coinciding with the great Pleistocene faunal turnover.
• 3 Extant populations show recurrent long‐range dispersal during cycles of expansion and recolonization. Demographically stable populations, in contrast, seem to be characterized by very limited gene flow.
• 4 Despite the potential for dispersal and ecological flexibility, landscape genetic approaches have demonstrated the existence of genetically distinct wolf populations, which originated through habitat and prey specializations.
• 5 Small isolated wolf populations may suffer from inbreeding depression, although selection for heterozygotes and the rescue effect can foster rapid population recovery. Population structure and dynamics is efficiently monitored by non‐invasive genetic methods, which are also useful to identify wolf × dogCanis lupus familiaris hybridization.
• 6 Despite technical advances and a better knowledge of wolf biology, wolf conservation is largely dependent on humans, and on the solution of conflicts with stakeholders.

     

Optimal predator management for mountain sheep conservation depends on the strength of mesopredator release

Large predators often suppress ungulate population growth, but they may also suppress the abundance of smaller predators that prey on neonatal ungulates. Antagonistic interactions among predators may therefore need to be integrated into predator–prey models to effectively manage ungulate–predator systems. We present a modeling framework that examines the net impact of interacting predators on the population growth rate of shared prey, using interactions among wolves Canis lupus, coyotes Canis latrans and Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli as a case study. Wolf control is currently employed on approximately 16 million ha in Alaska to increase the abundance of ungulates for human harvest. We hypothesized that the positive effects of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth could be counteracted by increased levels of predation by coyotes. Coyotes and Dall sheep adult females (ewes) and lambs were radiocollared in the Alaska Range from 1999–2005 to estimate fecundity, age‐specific survival rates, and causes of mortality in an area without wolf control. We used stage‐structured population models to simulate the net effect of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth (λ). Our models accounted for stage‐specific predation rates by wolves and coyotes, compensatory mortality, and the potential release of coyote populations due to wolf control. Wolves were the main predators of ewes, coyotes were the main predators of lambs, and wolves were the main source of mortality for coyotes. Population models predicted that wolf control could increase sheep λ by 4% per year in the absence of mesopredator release. However, if wolf control released coyote populations, our models predicted that sheep λ could decrease by up to 3% per year. These results highlight the importance of integrating antagonistic interactions among predators into predator–prey models, because the net effect of predator management on shared prey can depend critically on the strength of mesopredator release.     

Seasonal patterns of predation for gray wolves in the multi-prey system of Yellowstone National Park

1.?For large predators living in seasonal environments, patterns of predation are likely to vary among seasons because of related changes in prey vulnerability. Variation in prey vulnerability underlies the influence of predators on prey populations and the response of predators to seasonal variation in rates of biomass acquisition. Despite its importance, seasonal variation in predation is poorly understood. 2.?We assessed seasonal variation in prey composition and kill rate for wolves Canis lupus living on the Northern Range (NR) of Yellowstone National Park. Our assessment was based on data collected over 14 winters (1995-2009) and five spring-summers between 2004 and 2009. 3.?The species composition of wolf-killed prey and the age and sex composition of wolf-killed elk Cervus elaphus (the primary prey for NR wolves) varied among seasons. 4.?One's understanding of predation depends critically on the metric used to quantify kill rate. For example, kill rate was greatest in summer when quantified as the number of ungulates acquired per wolf per day, and least during summer when kill rate was quantified as the biomass acquired per wolf per day. This finding contradicts previous research that suggests that rates of biomass acquisition for large terrestrial carnivores tend not to vary among seasons. 5.?Kill rates were not well correlated among seasons. For example, knowing that early-winter kill rate is higher than average (compared with other early winters) provides little basis for anticipating whether kill rates a few months later during late winter will be higher or lower than average (compared with other late winters). This observation indicates how observing, for example, higher-than-average kill rates throughout any particular season is an unreliable basis for inferring that the year-round average kill rate would be higher than average. 6.?Our work shows how a large carnivore living in a seasonal environment displays marked seasonal variation in predation because of changes in prey vulnerability. Patterns of wolf predation were influenced by the nutritional condition of adult elk and the availability of smaller prey (i.e. elk calves, deer). We discuss how these patterns affect our overall understanding of predator and prey population dynamics.     

Wolves,white‐tailed deer,and beaver: implications of seasonal prey switching for woodland caribou declines

Population increases of primary prey can negatively impact alternate prey populations via demographic and behavioural responses of a shared predator through apparent competition. Seasonal variation in prey selection patterns by predators also can affect secondary and incidental prey by reducing spatial separation. Global warming and landscape changes in Alberta's bitumen sands have resulted in prey enrichment, which is changing the large mammal predator–prey system and causing declines in woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations. We assessed seasonal patterns of prey use and spatial selection by wolves Canis lupus in two woodland caribou ranges in northeastern Alberta, Canada, that have undergone prey enrichment following recent white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus invasion. We determined whether risk of predation for caribou (incidental prey) and the proportion of wolf‐caused‐caribou mortalities varied with season. We found that wolves showed seasonal variation in primary prey use, with deer and beaver Castor canadensis being the most common prey items in wolf diet in winter and summer, respectively. These seasonal dietary patterns were reflected in seasonal wolf spatial resource selection and resulted in contrasting spatial relationships between wolves and caribou. During winter, wolf selection for areas used by deer maintained strong spatial separation between wolves and caribou, whereas wolf selection for areas used by beaver in summer increased the overlap with caribou. Changing patterns in wolf resource selection were reflected by caribou mortality patterns, with 76.2% of 42 adult female caribou mortalities occurring in summer. Understanding seasonal patterns of predation following prey enrichment in a multiprey system is essential when assessing the effect of predation on an incidental prey species. Our results support the conclusion that wolves are proximately responsible for woodland caribou population declines throughout much of their range.     

Foxes, rabbits, alternative prey and rabbit calicivirus disease: consequences of a new biological control agent for an outbreaking species in Australia

1. Rabbit calicivirus disease (RCD; also known as rabbit haemorrhagic disease) has been introduced recently as a biocontrol agent for rabbits in Australia. The consequences for fox populations that use rabbits as primary prey, for populations of alternative native prey, and for pastures, were examined using a model for rabbit- and fox-prone areas of semi-arid southern Australia.
2. Existing data were used to quantify the interactions of foxes, rabbits and pasture. A generic model for predation on native herbivores was constructed by modifying the density-dependent (Type III) functional response of foxes to rabbits to a depensatory (Type II) response that is appropriate for alternative prey. Similar dependence on pasture biomass was assumed for the dynamics of both rabbits and alternative prey in order to identify clearly the consequences of differing predation. In the absence of quantitative data for Australian conditions, the epidemiology of RCD was simulated empirically to mimic a range of potential patterns of occurrence.
3. For semi-arid Australia the model predicts that as the frequency and intensity of RCD epizootics increases: (i) the mean abundance of rabbits will decline, as will the frequency of eruptions of rabbits; (ii) there may be little increase in mean pasture biomass and a small decrease in periods of very low pasture biomass when competition between herbivores is most intense; (iii) the mean abundance of foxes will decline; (iv) there will be a reduced frequency of occasions when rabbit density is low but fox density is high due to a lag in the response of predator populations; and (v) there is potential for an increase in the mean abundance of alternative prey and in the proportion of time their density exceeds a threshold comparable to that currently required for eruptions of rabbits.     

Predation by Neomysis mercedis: effects of temperature, Daphnia magna size and prey density on ingestion rate and size selectivity

1. Neomysis mercedis predation rates on Daphnia magna were determined under laboratory conditions. There were generally no consistent differences between the number of Daphnia ingested at 10 and 14°C. 2. At each temperature, the number of prey consumed increased with mysid size and decreased with Daphnia size. 3. For small prey the relationship between ingestion rate and prey density represented a Type II functional response. However, for larger prey there was no significant relationship between density of prey and consumption by mysids. 4. The pattern of size-selective predation by Neomysis was studied to test the optimal foraging hypothesis. For prey populations with mixed size classes, the smallest size of prey was consumed most frequently but intermediate size prey provided the greatest biomass. These observations are contrary to our predictions based on calculations of profitability of different sizes of prey.     

Inbreeding levels and prey abundance interact to determine fecundity in natural populations of two species of wolf spider

Long-term effective population size is expected, and has been shown, to correlate positively with various measures of population fitness. Here we examine the interacting effects of population size (as a surrogate for genetic factors) and prey consumption rates (as a surrogate for environmental quality) on fecundity in two sympatric species of wolf spider, Rabidosa punctulata and Rabidosa rabida. Population size was estimated in each of seven genetically isolated populations in each of 3 years using mark-recapture methods. Fecundity was estimated as the mean number of live offspring produced by ∼15 females sampled from each population of each species each year for 3 years. Prey consumption rates were estimated by sampling ∼300 spiders per population per year and assaying the proportion of spiders with prey. Larger populations have higher fecundity and more genetic diversity than smaller populations. Variation among populations in fecundity for a given year could be attributed most strongly to differences in population size, with variation in prey consumption rates and the interaction between population size and prey consumption playing smaller but still important roles. During the most stressful environmental conditions, the smallest populations of both species experienced disproportionately low-fecundity rates, more than doubling the estimated number of lethal equivalents during those years. The evidence presented in this paper for inbreeding-environment interactions at the population level and further evidence for a log-linear relationship between population size and fitness have important implications for conservation.     

Population Viability, Nature Reserves, and the Outlook for Gray Wolf Conservation in North America

Theoretical work on population viability and extinction probabilities, empirical data from Canis lupus (gray wolf) populations, and expert opinion provide only general and conflicting conclusions about the number of wolves and the size of areas needed for conservation of wolf populations. There is no threshold population size or proven reserve design that guarantees long-term (century or more) survival for a gray wolf population. Most theoretical analyses of population viability have assumed a single, isolated population and lack of management intervention, neither of which is likely for wolves. Data on survival of actual wolf populations suggest greater resiliency than is indicated by theory. In our view, the previous theoretical treatments of population viability have not been appropriate to wolves, have contributed little to their conservation, and have created unnecessary dilemmas for wolf recovery programs by overstating the required population size. Nonetheless, viability as commonly understood may be problematic for small populations at the fringe of or outside the contiguous species range, unless they are part of a metapopulation. The capability of existing nature reserves to support viable wolf populations appears related to a variety of in situ circumstances, including size, shape and topography of the reserve; productivity, numbers, dispersion, and seasonal movement of prey; extent of poaching inside; degree of persecution outside; exposure to enzootica; attitudes of local people; and proximity to other wolf populations. We estimate that a population of 100 or more wolves and a reserve of several thousand square kilometers may be necessary to maintain a viable population in complete isolation, although 3000 km² or even 500–1000 km² may be adequate under favorable circumstances. In most cases, management intervention is probably necessary to assure the viability of relatively small, isolated populations. Because most reserves may be inadequate by themselves to ensure the long-term survival of wolf populations, favorable human attitudes toward the species and its management must be recognized as paramount, and cooperation of neighboring management jurisdictions will be increasingly important.     

The forgotten prey of an iconic predator: a review of interactions between grey wolves Canis lupus and beavers Castor spp.

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Prey preference of the wolf spider,Pardosa pseudoannulata (Boesenberg et Strand)

Functional responses of the wolf spider, Pardosa pseudoannulata (Boesenberg et Strand) attacking the rice brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stål.), and the mirid predator Cyrtorhinus lividipennis Reuter were both those of Holling Type II. The attack rate was higher and handling time lower for C. lividipennis. However, when caged with the two prey, the wolf spider showed a significant preference for N. lugens at a lower prey proportion. Proportions of prey attacked were significantly different from the expected ratios of prey available as well as from the predicted preferences derived from the functional response parameters. As proportions of N. lugens attacked changed from greater to less than expected as the proportions of N. lugens available increased, a “reverse switch” behaviour seems to be evident.     

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator–prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe‐haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose (Alces alces) density and wolf (Canis lupus) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km² area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator–prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.     

Coexistence of wolves and humans in a densely populated region (Lower Saxony,Germany)

Since the first sporadic occurrences of grey wolves (Canis lupus) west of the Polish border in 1996, wolves have shown a rapid population recovery in Germany. Wolves are known to avoid people and wolf attacks on humans are very rare worldwide. However, the subjectively perceived threat is considerable, especially as food-conditioned habituation to humans occurs sporadically. Lower Saxony (Germany) has an exceedingly higher human population density than most other regions with territorial wolves; thus, the potential for human–wolf conflicts is higher. Using hunters’ wildlife survey data from 455 municipalities and two years (2014–2015) and data from the official wolf monitoring (557 confirmed wolf presences and 500 background points) collected between 2012–2015, grey wolf habitat selection was modelled using generalized additive models with respect to human population density, road density, forest cover and roe deer density. Moreover, we tested whether habitat use changed in response to human population and road density between 2012/2013 and 2014/2015.Wolves showed a preference for areas of low road density. Human population density was less important as a covariate in the model of the survey data. Areas with higher prey abundance (5–10 roe deer/km²) and areas with >20% forest cover were preferred wolf habitats. Wolves were mostly restricted to areas with the lowest road and human population densities. However, between the two time periods, avoidance of human density decreased significantly.Recolonization of Germany is still in its early stages and it is unclear where this process will halt. To-date authorities mainly concentrate on monitoring measures. However, to avoid conflict, recolonization will require more stringent management of wolf populations and an improved information strategy for rural populations.     

Territory size of wolves Canis lupus: linking local (Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland) and Holarctic-scale patterns

Factors affecting territory size in wolves Canis lupus were studied at 2 scales, the local population (Bia?owie?a Primeval Forest (BPF), eastern Poland) and the geographic range of species (literature review from 14 localities in the Holarctic). Four packs of wolves were studied by radio‐tracking in BPF from 1994 to 1999. The annual territories of packs (Minimum convex polygons with 95% of locations) averaged 201 km² (SD 63, range 116–310). Core areas of territories (50% MCP) covered from 14 to 78 km² (mean 35). Territory sizes and core areas both were negatively correlated to the encounter rates of ungulates (mean number of ungulates seen per unit time spent in the forest by human observers). Pack size (3–8 wolves) did not influence territory size. Home ranges of individual wolves from the same pack varied with season as well as the age, sex, and reproductive status of the wolf. Review of literature from North America and Europe (42–66^oN), showed that latitude and prey biomass were essential factors shaping the biogeographic variation in wolf territory size. Territories increased with latitude and declined with growing biomass of prey. The analysis showed that latitude acted partly independently of the south–north gradient in prey abundance. At similar standing crop of ungulate biomass (100 kg km^?2), wolf territories would average 140 km² at 40^oN, 370 km² at 50^oN, and 950 km² at 60^oN. Pack size was larger at northern latitudes, but the increase did not keep pace with enlargement of territories. Within‐territory density of wolves declined from 2.5–3 wolves 100 km^?2 at 40–45^oN to 0.7 wolves 100 km^?2 at 60^oN. Our analyses documented similarities regarding the role of prey resources in shaping wolf territoriality at the different scales. Furthermore, a macroecological approach revealed additional factors affecting wolf territory size that were not emergent from knowledge of local population.     

Diet of wolves <Emphasis Type="Italic">Canis lupus</Emphasis> returning to Hungary

At the end of the nineteenth century, the wolf Canis lupus was extinct in Hungary and in recent decades has returned to the northern highland area of the country. The diet of wolves living in groups in Aggteleki National Park was investigated using scat analysis (n = 81 scats) and prey remains (n = 31 carcasses). Throughout the year wolves (average, minimum two wolves per year) consumed mostly wild-living ungulates (mean percent of biomass consumed, B% 97.2%; relative frequency of occurrence, %O 74.0%). The wild boar Sus scrofa was the most common prey item found in wolf scat (%B 35.6%) and is also the most commonly occurring ungulate in the study areas. The second most commonly occurring prey item in wolf scat was red deer Cervus elaphus (B% 32.8%). Conversely, prey remain analyses revealed wild boar as the second most commonly utilised prey species (%O 16.1%) after red deer (%O 67.7%). The roe deer Capreolus capreolus that occurs at lower population densities was the third most commonly utilised prey species. The importance of low population density mouflon Ovis aries, livestock and other food types was low. The results are similar to those found in the northern part of the Carpathian Mountains.     

Home range size variation in a recovering wolf population: evaluating the effect of environmental, demographic, and social factors

Home range size in mammals is a key ecological trait and an important parameter in conservation planning, and has been shown to be influenced by ecological, demographic and social factors in animal populations. Information on space requirements is especially important for carnivore species which range over very large areas and often come into direct conflict with human interest. We used long-term telemetry-location data from a recovering wolf population in Scandinavia to investigate variation in home range size in relation to environmental and social characteristics of the different packs. Wolves showed considerable variation in home range size, which ranged from 259 to 1,676 km². Although wolf density increased fourfold during the study period, we found no evidence that intraspecific competition influenced range size. Local variation in moose density, which was the main prey for most packs, did not influence wolf home range size. Home ranges increased with latitude and elevation and decreased with increased roe deer density. Although prey biomass alone did not influence range size, our data suggest that there is a correlation between habitat characteristics, choice of prey species and possible hunting success, which currently combine to shape home range size in Scandinavian wolves.     

Estimating Admixture at the Population Scale: Taking Imperfect Detectability and Uncertainty in Hybrid Classification Seriously

Introgressive hybridization between domestic dogs and wolves (Canis lupus) represents an emblematic case of anthropogenic hybridization and is increasingly threatening the genomic integrity of wolf populations expanding into human-modified landscapes. But studies formally estimating prevalence and accounting for imperfect detectability and uncertainty in hybrid classification are lacking. Our goal was to present an approach to formally estimate the proportion of admixture by using a capture-recapture (CR) framework applied to individual multilocus genotypes detected from non-invasive samples collected from a protected wolf population in Italy. We scored individual multilocus genotypes using a panel of 12 microsatellites and assigned genotypes to reference wolf and dog populations through Bayesian clustering procedures. Based on 152 samples, our dataset comprised the capture histories of 39 individuals sampled in 7 wolf packs and was organized in bi-monthly sampling occasions (Aug 2015−May 2016). We fitted CR models using a multievent formulation to explicitly handle uncertainty in individual classification, and accordingly examined 2 model scenarios: one reflecting a traditional approach to classifying individuals (i.e., minimizing the misclassification of wolves as hybrids; Type 1 error), and the other using a more stringent criterion aimed to balance Type 1 and Type 2 error rates (i.e., the misclassification of hybrids as wolves). Compared to the sample proportion of admixed individuals in the dataset (43.6%), formally estimated prevalence was 50% under the first and 70% under the second scenario, with 71.4% and 85.7% of admixed packs, respectively. At the individual level, the proportion of dog ancestry in the wolf population averaged 7.8% (95% CI = 4.4−11%). Balancing between Type 1 and 2 error rates in assignment tests, our second scenario produced an estimate of prevalence 40% higher compared to the alternative scenario, corresponding to a 65% decrease in Type 2 and no increase in Type 1 error rates. Providing a formal and innovative estimation approach to assess prevalence in admixed wild populations, our study confirms previous population modeling indicating that reproductive barriers between wolves and dogs, or dilution of dog genes through backcrossing, should not be expected per se to prevent the spread of introgression. As anthropogenic hybridization is increasingly affecting animal species globally, our approach is of interest to a broader audience of wildlife conservationists and practitioners. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Feeding ecology of wolvesCanis lupus returning to Germany

Following several years of occasional occurrence, several wolvesCanis lupus Linnaeus, 1758 have established a resident population in northeastern Saxony (Eastern Germany). From 2001 to 2003, we collected and analysed 192 scats ofC. lupus. Results of our study are expressed as the frequency of occurrence of prey species and the percentage of biomass consumed using coefficients of digestibility as well as two variants of an equation for prey mass per collectable scat. Diet composition of the wolves was restricted to a few food items, mostly wild ungulates. These remains were found in 97% of the scats, representing 99% of the biomass consumed by the wolves. Roe deerCapreolus capreolus was the most frequent and most important prey, constituting nearly of one half the biomass. Red deerCervus elaphus was recorded in one-third of the samples, followed by wild boarSus scrofa, mouflonOvis am mon musimon and brown hareLepus europaeus. Compared with game occurrence, roe deer was clearly preferred over the other species. A difference between winter and summer diets was mainly due to the high occurrence of young wild boar in summer. The general diet pattern of the wolf in Saxony corresponds with that found in the naturally occurring populations in Europe.     

Life tables and development of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Amblyseius swirskii</Emphasis> (Acari: Phytoseiidae) at different temperatures

Development time, reproduction, survival and sex ratio were determined for the omnivorous mite Amblyseius swirskii at nine constant temperatures (13, 15, 18, 20, 25, 30, 32, 34 and 36°C) on pepper leaf disks with cattail, Typha latifolia, pollen for food. These data were used to derive life table parameters at these constant temperatures. No development was observed at 13°C. The lower development threshold, based on the fit to the linear portion of the development curve, was 11.3°C. The upper development threshold was 37.4 ± 1.12°C, and the optimum temperature was calculated to be 31.5°C. Average lifetime fecundity ranged from a low of 1.3 ± 0.24 eggs/female at 15°C to a high of 16.1 ± 0.34 eggs/female at 25°C, and r _m was greatest at 32°C. Non-linear regression of the relationship between temperature and r _m produced an estimate of 15.49 ± 0.905°C for the lower threshold for population growth and 36.99 ± 0.816°C for the upper threshold for population growth, and an optimum temperature of 30.1°C. These values suggest that A. swiskii populations should grow quickly in response to food availability (pollen or prey) between 20 and 32°C, but that, especially below 20°C, population growth could be slow and impacts on prey populations should be monitored carefully.     

Prey Selection by an Apex Predator: The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequately with uncertainties in the underlying data. Indeed, our review showed that less than 10% of studies of European wolf predation accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual variability in wolf diet to prey availability and examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding prey selection.Over nine years, we collected 1,974 wolf scats and conducted drive censuses of ungulates in Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat and census data within years to construct confidence intervals around estimates of prey use, availability and selection. Wolf diet was dominated by boar (61.5±3.90 [SE] % of biomass eaten) and roe deer (33.7±3.61%). Temporal patterns of prey densities revealed that the proportion of roe deer in wolf diet peaked when boar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly''s standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean = 0.73±0.023). However, sampling error resulted in wide confidence intervals around estimates of prey selection. Thus, despite considerable variation in yearly estimates, confidence intervals for all years overlapped. Failing to consider such uncertainty could lead erroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among years. This study highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in relative prey availability and accounting for sampling uncertainty when interpreting the results of dietary studies.