Seroprevalence Following the Second Wave of Pandemic 2009 H1N1 Influenza in Pittsburgh,PA, USA

Background

In April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents.

Methods and Findings

Anonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920–2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n = 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n = 100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10–19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70–79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18–24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%.

Conclusions

After the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children.     

Intent to Receive Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Vaccine,Compliance with Social Distancing and Sources of Information in NC, 2009

Background

Public adherence to influenza vaccination recommendations has been low, particularly among younger adults and children under 2, despite the availability of safe and effective seasonal vaccine. Intention to receive 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine has been estimated to be 50% in select populations. This report measures knowledge of and intention to receive pandemic vaccine in a population-based setting, including target groups for seasonal and H1N1 influenza.

Methodology and Principal Findings

On August 28–29, 2009, we conducted a population-based survey in 2 counties in North Carolina. The survey used the 30×7 two-stage cluster sampling methodology to identify 210 target households. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Knowledge of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine was high, with 165 (80%) aware that a vaccine was being prepared. A total of 133 (64%) respondents intended to receive pandemic vaccine, 134 (64%) intended to receive seasonal vaccine, and 109 (53%) intended to receive both. Reporting great concern about H1N1 infection (PR 1.55; 95%CI: 1.30, 1.85), receiving seasonal influenza vaccine in 2008–09 (PR 1.47; 95%CI: 1.18, 1.82), and intending to receive seasonal influenza vaccine in 2009–10 (PR 1.27; 95%CI: 1.14, 1.42) were associated with intention to receive pandemic vaccine. Not associated were knowledge of vaccine, employment, having children under age 18, gender, race/ethnicity and age. Reasons cited for not intending to get vaccinated include not being at risk for infection, concerns about vaccine side effects and belief that illness caused by pandemic H1N1 would be mild. Forty-five percent of households with children under 18 and 65% of working adults reported ability to comply with self-isolation at home for 7–10 days if recommended by authorities.

Conclusions and Significance

This is the first report of a population based rapid assessment used to assess knowledge and intent to receive pandemic vaccine in a community sample. Intention to receive pandemic and seasonal vaccines was higher than previously published reports. To reach persons not intending to receive pandemic vaccine, public health communications should focus on the perceived risk of infection and concerns about vaccine safety.     

Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Antibodies in Residents of New South Wales,Australia, after the First Pandemic Wave in the 2009 Southern Hemisphere Winter

Background

The first wave of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009 (pH1N1) reached New South Wales (NSW), Australia in May 2009, and led to high rates of influenza-related hospital admission of infants and young to middle-aged adults, but no increase in influenza-related or all-cause mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To assess the population rate of pH1N1 infection in NSW residents, pH1N1-specific haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody prevalence was measured in specimens collected opportunistically before (2007–2008; 474 specimens) and after (August–September 2009; 1247 specimens) the 2009 winter, and before the introduction of the pH1N1 monovalent vaccine. Age- and geographically-weighted population changes in seroprevalence were calculated. HI antibodies against four recent seasonal influenza A viruses were measured to assess cross-reactions. Pre- and post-pandemic pH1N1 seroprevalences were 12.8%, and 28.4%, respectively, with an estimated overall infection rate of 15.6%. pH1N1 antibody prevalence increased significantly - 20.6% overall - in people born since 1944 (26.9% in those born between 1975 and 1997) but not in those born in or before 1944. People born before 1925 had a significantly higher pH1N1 seroprevalence than any other age-group, and against any seasonal influenza A virus. Sydney residents had a significantly greater change in prevalence of antibodies against pH1N1 than other NSW residents (19.3% vs 9.6%).

Conclusions/Significance

Based on increases in the pH1N1 antibody prevalence before and after the first pandemic wave, 16% of NSW residents were infected by pH1N1 in 2009; the highest infection rates (27%) were among adolescents and young adults. Past exposure to the antigenically similar influenza A/H1N1(1918) is the likely basis for a very high prevalence (49%) of prepandemic cross-reacting pH1N1 antibody and sparing from pH1N1 infection among people over 85 years. Unless pre-season vaccine uptake is high, there are likely to be at least moderate rates including some life-threatening cases of pH1N1 infection among young people during subsequent winters.     

Effectiveness of pandemic H1N1-2009 vaccination in reducing laboratory confirmed influenza infections among military recruits in tropical Singapore

Background

Limited information is available about pandemic H1N1-2009 influenza vaccine effectiveness in tropical communities. We studied the effectiveness of a pandemic H1N1 vaccination program in reducing influenza cases in Singapore.

Methods

A surveillance study was conducted among military personnel presenting with febrile respiratory illness from mid-2009 to mid-2010. Consenting individuals underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. A vaccination program (inactivated monovalent Panvax H1N1-2009 vaccine) was carried out among recruits. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to quantify relative risks in the pre- and post-vaccination periods. An autoregressive generalised linear model (GLM) was developed to minimise confounding.

Results

Of 2858 participants, 437(15.3%), 60(2.1%), and 273(9.6%) had pandemic H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B. The ratio of relative risks for pandemic H1N1 infection before and after vaccination for the recruit camp relative to other camps was 0.14(0.016,0.49); for H3N2, 0.44(0.035,1.8); and for influenza B, 18(0.77,89). Using the GLM for the recruit camp, post-vaccination weekly cases decreased by 54%(37%,67%, p<0.001) from that expected without vaccination; influenza B increased by 66 times(9–479 times, p<0.001); with no statistical difference for H3N2 (p = 0.54).

Conclusions

Pandemic vaccination reduced H1N1-2009 disease burden among military recruits. Routine seasonal influenza vaccination should be considered.     

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009 Pneumonia: CURB-65 Score for Predicting Severity and Nasopharyngeal Sampling for Diagnosis Are Unreliable

Background

From the first case reports of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 it was clear that a significant proportion of infected individuals suffered a primary viral pneumonia. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess the utility of the CURB-65 community acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity index in predicting pneumonia severity and ICU admission, and to assess the relative sensitivity of nasopharyngeal versus lower respiratory tract sampling for the detection of pandemic influenza (H1N1) CAP.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 70 patients hospitalised for pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in an adult tertiary referral hospital. Characteristics evaluated included age, pregnancy status, sex, respiratory signs and symptoms, smoking and alcohol history, CURB-65 score, co-morbidities, disabling sequelae, length of stay and in-hospital mortality outcomes. Laboratory features evaluated included lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), nasopharyngeal and lower respiratory tract pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 PCR results.

Results

Patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP differed significantly from those without pneumonia regarding length of stay, need for ICU admission, CRP and the likelihood of disabling sequelae. The CURB-65 score did not predict CAP severity or the need for ICU admission (only 2/11 patients admitted to ICU had CURB-65 scores of 2 or 3). Nasopharyngeal specimens for PCR were only 62.9% sensitive in CAP patients compared to 97.8% sensitivity for lower respiratory tract specimens.

Conclusions

The CURB-65 score does not predict severe pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 CAP or need for ICU admission. Lower respiratory tract specimens should be collected when pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP is suspected.     

French Experience of 2009 A/H1N1v Influenza in Pregnant Women

Background

The first reports on the pandemic influenza 2009 A/H1N1v from the USA, Mexico, and Australia indicated that this disease was associated with a high mortality in pregnant women. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the characteristics of severe critically ill and non-severe pregnant women with 2009 A/H1N1v-related illness in France.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A national registry was created to screen pregnant women with laboratory-confirmed 2009 A/H1N1v influenza. Three hundred and fifteen patients from 46 French hospitals were included: 40 patients were admitted to intensive care units (severe outcomes), 111 were hospitalized in obstetric or medical wards (moderate outcomes), and 164 were outpatients (mild outcomes). The 2009 A/H1N1v influenza illness occurred during all pregnancy trimesters, but most women (54%), notably the severe patients (70%), were in the third trimester. Among the severe patients, twenty (50%) underwent mechanical ventilation, and eleven (28%) were treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Three women died from A/H1N1v influenza. We found a strong association between the development of a severe outcome and both co-existing illnesses (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 5.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2–11.8) and a delay in oseltamivir treatment after the onset of symptoms (>3 or 5 days) (adjusted OR, 4.8; 95% CI, 1.9–12.1 and 61.2, 95% CI; 14.4–261.3, respectively). Among the 140 deliveries after 22 weeks of gestation known to date, 19 neonates (14%) were admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit, mainly for preterm delivery, and two neonates died. None of these neonates developed 2009 A/H1N1v infection.

Conclusions

This series confirms the high incidence of complications in pregnant women infected with pandemic A/H1N1v observed in other countries but depicts a lower overall maternal and neonatal mortality and morbidity than indicated in the USA or Australia. Moreover, our data demonstrate the benefit of early oseltamivir treatment in this specific population.     

Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009, Innate Immunity,and the Impact of Immunosenescence on Influenza Vaccine

Seasonal and pandemic strains of influenza have widespread implications for the global economy and global health. This has been highlighted recently as the epidemiologic characteristics for hospitalization and mortality for pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 are now emerging. While treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors are effective for seasonal and pandemic influenza, prevention of morbidity and mortality through effective vaccines requires a rigorous process of research and development. Vulnerable populations such as older adults (i.e., > age 65 years) suffer the greatest impact from seasonal influenza yet do not have a consistent seroprotective response to seasonal influenza vaccines due to a combination of factors. This short narrative review will highlight the emerging epidemiologic characteristics of pandemic H1N1 2009 and focus on immunosenescence, innate immune system responses to influenza virus infection and vaccination, and influenza vaccine responsiveness as it relates to seasonal and H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccines.     

Field effectiveness of pandemic and 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines against 2009-2010 A(H1N1) influenza: estimations from surveillance data in France

Background

In this study, we assess how effective pandemic and trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines were in preventing influenza-like illness (ILI) during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in France. We also compare vaccine effectiveness against ILI versus laboratory-confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, and assess the possible bias caused by using non-specific endpoints and observational data.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We estimated vaccine effectiveness by using the following formula: VE  =  (PPV-PCV)/(PPV(1-PCV)) × 100%, where PPV is the proportion vaccinated in the population and PCV the proportion of vaccinated influenza cases. People were considered vaccinated three weeks after receiving a dose of vaccine. ILI and pandemic A(H1N1) laboratory-confirmed cases were obtained from two surveillance networks of general practitioners. During the epidemic, 99.7% of influenza isolates were pandemic A(H1N1). Pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptakes in the population were obtained from the National Health Insurance database and by telephonic surveys, respectively. Effectiveness estimates were adjusted by age and week. The presence of residual biases was explored by calculating vaccine effectiveness after the influenza period. The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing ILI was 52% (95% confidence interval: 30–69) during the pandemic and 33% (4–55) after. It was 86% (56–98) against confirmed influenza. The effectiveness of seasonal vaccines against ILI was 61% (56–66) during the pandemic and 19% (−10–41) after. It was 60% (41–74) against confirmed influenza.

Conclusions

The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza on the field was high, consistently with published findings. It was significantly lower against ILI. This is unsurprising since not all ILI cases are caused by influenza. Trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines had a statistically significant effectiveness in preventing ILI and confirmed pandemic influenza, but were not better in preventing confirmed pandemic influenza than in preventing ILI. This lack of difference might be indicative of selection bias.     

Effective Detection of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in U.S. Veterans Affairs Medical Centers Using a National Electronic Biosurveillance System

Background

The 2008–09 influenza season was the time in which the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) utilized an electronic biosurveillance system for tracking and monitoring of influenza trends. The system, known as ESSENCE or Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics, was monitored for the influenza season as well as for a rise in influenza cases at the start of the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic. We also describe trends noted in influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient encounter data in VA medical centers during the 2008–09 influenza season, before and after the recognition of pandemic H1N1 2009 influenza virus.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We determined prevalence of ILI coded visits using VA''s ESSENCE for 2008–09 seasonal influenza (Sept. 28, 2008–April 25, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 40–16) and the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009 (April 26, 2009–July 31, 2009 corresponding to CDC 2008–2009 flu season weeks 17–30). Differences in diagnostic ICD-9-CM code frequencies were analyzed using Chi-square and odds ratios. There were 649,574 ILI encounters captured representing 633,893 patients. The prevalence of VA ILI visits mirrored the CDC''s Outpatient ILI Surveillance Network (ILINet) data with peaks in late December, early February, and late April/early May, mirroring the ILINet data; however, the peaks seen in the VA were smaller. Of 31 ILI codes, 6 decreased and 11 increased significantly during the early period of pandemic H1N1 2009. The ILI codes that significantly increased were more likely to be symptom codes. Although influenza with respiratory manifestation (487.1) was the most common code used among 150 confirmed pandemic H1N1 2009 cases, overall it significantly decreased since the start of the pandemic.

Conclusions/Significance

VA ESSENCE effectively detected and tracked changing ILI trends during pandemic H1N1 2009 and represents an important temporal alerting system for monitoring health events in VA facilities.     

Retrospective investigation of an influenza A/H1N1pdm outbreak in an Italian military ship cruising in the Mediterranean Sea, May-September 2009

Background

Clinical surveillance may have underestimated the real extent of the spread of the new strain of influenza A/H1N1, which surfaced in April 2009 originating the first influenza pandemic of the 21^st century. Here we report a serological investigation on an influenza A/H1N1pdm outbreak in an Italian military ship while cruising in the Mediterranean Sea (May 24-September 6, 2009).

Methods

The contemporary presence of HAI and CF antibodies was used to retrospectively estimate the extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread across the crew members (median age: 29 years).

Findings

During the cruise, 2 crew members fulfilled the surveillance case definition for influenza, but only one was laboratory confirmed by influenza A/H1N1pdm-specific RT-PCR; 52 reported acute respiratory illness (ARI) episodes, and 183 reported no ARI episodes. Overall, among the 211 crew member for whom a valid serological result was available, 39.3% tested seropositive for influenza A/H1N1pdm. The proportion of seropositives was significantly associated with more crowded living quarters and tended to be higher in those aged <40 and in those reporting ARI or suspected/confirmed influenza A/H1N1pdm compared to the asymptomatic individuals. No association was found with previous seasonal influenza vaccination.

Conclusions

These findings underline the risk for rapid spread of novel strains of influenza A in confined environment, such as military ships, where crowding, rigorous working environment, physiologic stress occur. The high proportion of asymptomatic infections in this ship-borne outbreak supports the concept that serological surveillance in such semi-closed communities is essential to appreciate the real extent of influenza A/H1N1pdm spread and can constitute, since the early stage of a pandemic, an useful model to predict the public health impact of pandemic influenza and to establish proportionate and effective countermeasures.     

Enhanced Neutralizing Antibody Titers and Th1 Polarization from a Novel Escherichia coli Derived Pandemic Influenza Vaccine

Influenza pandemics can spread quickly and cost millions of lives; the 2009 H1N1 pandemic highlighted the shortfall in the current vaccine strategy and the need for an improved global response in terms of shortening the time required to manufacture the vaccine and increasing production capacity. Here we describe the pre-clinical assessment of a novel 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine based on the E. coli-produced HA globular head domain covalently linked to virus-like particles derived from the bacteriophage Qβ. When formulated with alum adjuvant and used to immunize mice, dose finding studies found that a 10 µg dose of this vaccine (3.7 µg globular HA content) induced antibody titers comparable to a 1.5 µg dose (0.7 µg globular HA content) of the licensed 2009 H1N1 pandemic vaccine Panvax, and significantly reduced viral titers in the lung following challenge with 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A/California/07/2009 virus. While Panvax failed to induce marked T cell responses, the novel vaccine stimulated substantial antigen-specific interferon-γ production in splenocytes from immunized mice, alongside enhanced IgG2a antibody production. In ferrets the vaccine elicited neutralizing antibodies, and following challenge with influenza A/California/07/2009 virus reduced morbidity and lowered viral titers in nasal lavages.     

Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico

Background

Mexico''s local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission.

Methods and Findings

We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases.

Conclusions

We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Mortality Burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in France: Comparison to Seasonal Influenza and the A/H3N2 Pandemic

Background

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons.

Methods

We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic.

Results

The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2–1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43–45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3–3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5–24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years.

Conclusions

The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.     

Complex patterns of human antisera reactivity to novel 2009 H1N1 and historical H1N1 influenza strains

Background

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, individuals over the age of 60 had the lowest incidence of infection with approximately 25% of these people having pre-existing, cross-reactive antibodies to novel 2009 H1N1 influenza isolates. It was proposed that older people had pre-existing antibodies induced by previous 1918-like virus infection(s) that cross-reacted to novel H1N1 strains.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using antisera collected from a cohort of individuals collected before the second wave of novel H1N1 infections, only a minority of individuals with 1918 influenza specific antibodies also demonstrated hemagglutination-inhibition activity against the novel H1N1 influenza. In this study, we examined human antisera collected from individuals that ranged between the ages of 1 month and 90 years to determine the profile of seropositive influenza immunity to viruses representing H1N1 antigenic eras over the past 100 years. Even though HAI titers to novel 2009 H1N1 and the 1918 H1N1 influenza viruses were positively associated, the association was far from perfect, particularly for the older and younger age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Therefore, there may be a complex set of immune responses that are retained in people infected with seasonal H1N1 that can contribute to the reduced rates of H1N1 influenza infection in older populations.     

Mutations in H5N1 Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin that Confer Binding to Human Tracheal Airway Epithelium

The emergence in 2009 of a swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus as the first pandemic of the 21st Century is a timely reminder of the international public health impact of influenza viruses, even those associated with mild disease. The widespread distribution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in the avian population has spawned concern that it may give rise to a human influenza pandemic. The mortality rate associated with occasional human infection by H5N1 virus approximates 60%, suggesting that an H5N1 pandemic would be devastating to global health and economy. To date, the H5N1 virus has not acquired the propensity to transmit efficiently between humans. The reasons behind this are unclear, especially given the high mutation rate associated with influenza virus replication. Here we used a panel of recombinant H5 hemagglutinin (HA) variants to demonstrate the potential for H5 HA to bind human airway epithelium, the predominant target tissue for influenza virus infection and spread. While parental H5 HA exhibited limited binding to human tracheal epithelium, introduction of selected mutations converted the binding profile to that of a current human influenza strain HA. Strikingly, these amino-acid changes required multiple simultaneous mutations in the genomes of naturally occurring H5 isolates. Moreover, H5 HAs bearing intermediate sequences failed to bind airway tissues and likely represent mutations that are an evolutionary “dead end.” We conclude that, although genetic changes that adapt H5 to human airways can be demonstrated, they may not readily arise during natural virus replication. This genetic barrier limits the likelihood that current H5 viruses will originate a human pandemic.     

Supply of Neuraminidase Inhibitors Related to Reduced Influenza A (H1N1) Mortality during the 2009–2010 H1N1 Pandemic: An Ecological Study

Background

The influenza A (H1N1) pandemic swept across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010 affecting millions. Many WHO Member States relied on antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Such drugs have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduced morbidity during the pandemic. However, it is less clear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality.

Methods

Country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were used to predict H1N1 mortality (per 100,000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in forty-two WHO Member States. Poisson regression was used to model the association between NAI supply and H1N1 mortality, with adjustment for economic, demographic, and health-related confounders.

Results

After adjustment for potential confounders, each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100,000 people, was associated with a 1.6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period (relative rate (RR) = 0.84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply). While the supply of zanamivir was considerably less than that of oseltamivir in each Member State, each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100,000, was associated with a 0.3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0.97 per log increase).

Conclusion

While there are limitations to the ecologic nature of these data, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics.     

Morbid Obesity as a Risk Factor for Hospitalization and Death Due to 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Disease

Background

Severe illness due to 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) infection has been reported among persons who are obese or morbidly obese. We assessed whether obesity is a risk factor for hospitalization and death due to 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), independent of chronic medical conditions considered by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) to increase the risk of influenza-related complications.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a case-cohort design to compare cases of hospitalizations and deaths from 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza occurring between April–July, 2009, with a cohort of the U.S. population estimated from the 2003–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); pregnant women and children <2 years old were excluded. For hospitalizations, we defined categories of relative weight by body mass index (BMI, kg/m²); for deaths, obesity or morbid obesity was recorded on medical charts, and death certificates. Odds ratio (OR) of being in each BMI category was determined; normal weight was the reference category. Overall, 361 hospitalizations and 233 deaths included information to determine BMI category and presence of ACIP-recognized medical conditions. Among ≥20 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being morbidly obese (BMI≥40) for individuals with ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.9, 95% CI 2.4–9.9) and without ACIP-recognized chronic conditions (OR = 4.7, 95%CI 1.3–17.2). Among 2–19 year olds, hospitalization was associated with being underweight (BMI≤5^th percentile) among those with (OR = 12.5, 95%CI 3.4–45.5) and without (OR = 5.5, 95%CI 1.3–22.5) ACIP-recognized chronic conditions. Death was not associated with BMI category among individuals 2–19 years old. Among individuals aged ≥20 years without ACIP-recognized chronic medical conditions death was associated with obesity (OR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.5–6.6) and morbid obesity (OR = 7.6, 95%CI 2.1–27.9).

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings support observations that morbid obesity may be associated with hospitalization and possibly death due to 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection. These complications could be prevented by early antiviral therapy and vaccination.     

Protection of Mice against Lethal Challenge with 2009 H1N1 Influenza A Virus by 1918-Like and Classical Swine H1N1 Based Vaccines

The recent 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus infection in humans has resulted in nearly 5,000 deaths worldwide. Early epidemiological findings indicated a low level of infection in the older population (>65 years) with the pandemic virus, and a greater susceptibility in people younger than 35 years of age, a phenomenon correlated with the presence of cross-reactive immunity in the older population. It is unclear what virus(es) might be responsible for this apparent cross-protection against the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. We describe a mouse lethal challenge model for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain, used together with a panel of inactivated H1N1 virus vaccines and hemagglutinin (HA) monoclonal antibodies to dissect the possible humoral antigenic determinants of pre-existing immunity against this virus in the human population. By hemagglutinination inhibition (HI) assays and vaccination/challenge studies, we demonstrate that the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus is antigenically similar to human H1N1 viruses that circulated from 1918–1943 and to classical swine H1N1 viruses. Antibodies elicited against 1918-like or classical swine H1N1 vaccines completely protect C57B/6 mice from lethal challenge with the influenza A/Netherlands/602/2009 virus isolate. In contrast, contemporary H1N1 vaccines afforded only partial protection. Passive immunization with cross-reactive monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) raised against either 1918 or A/California/04/2009 HA proteins offered full protection from death. Analysis of mAb antibody escape mutants, generated by selection of 2009 H1N1 virus with these mAbs, indicate that antigenic site Sa is one of the conserved cross-protective epitopes. Our findings in mice agree with serological data showing high prevalence of 2009 H1N1 cross-reactive antibodies only in the older population, indicating that prior infection with 1918-like viruses or vaccination against the 1976 swine H1N1 virus in the USA are likely to provide protection against the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. This data provides a mechanistic basis for the protection seen in the older population, and emphasizes a rationale for including vaccination of the younger, naïve population. Our results also support the notion that pigs can act as an animal reservoir where influenza virus HAs become antigenically frozen for long periods of time, facilitating the generation of human pandemic viruses.