Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States: Comparison of Two Scenarios

The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers'' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.     

Redefining Thermal Regimes to Design Reserves for Coral Reefs in the Face of Climate Change

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) using the best proxy for acclimatization currently available; (3) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (4) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.     

Patterns of Coral Recruitment and Post-settlement Mortality on Bermuda's Reefs: Comparisons to Caribbean and Pacific Reefs

The recruitment of juvenile corals and post-settlement mortalityare important processes for coral population dynamics and reefcommunity ecology. I monitored juvenile coral recruitment andsurvival on a severely disturbed reef in Bermuda from 1981 to1989 and on adjacent healthy reefs from 1986 to 1990. Poritesastreoides was the dominant recruiting species at all sites,due to the release of brooded planulae that may settle rapidly.The dominant corals on Bermuda's reef, Diploria spp., were poorrecruiters, perhaps due to the broadcast mode of reproductionof these species. However, Diploria spp. have lower juvenilemortality rates compared to P. astreoides, which may explaintheir abundance on Bermuda's reefs. Brooding corals, primarily agariciids, were the dominant recruitson Atlantic reefs compared to high recruitment rates by spawningacroporids in the Pacific, which may be the result of differentenvironmental conditions and/or evolutionary trends in the twooceans. The latter group also suffered high post-settlementmortality compared to brooding coralsin both the Atlantic andthe Pacific. Massive corals in both oceans had generally lowrecruitment rates, related to their spawning mode of reproduction,and low rates of post-settlement mortality. The dominant roleof long-lived massive corals on the Atlantic and Pacific reefscan be understood in terms of their life-history strategy incomparison to the relatively short-lived Pacific acroporidsand Atlantic agariciids that rely on different strategies tomaintain their populations.     

Coral Reefs and Environmental Change: Adaptation to What?

SYNOPSIS. The present concern about future climate change andsea-level rise due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is putin the context of past changes. Best estimates of future changesare detailed, with an explanation of methods and uncertainties.Considerable progress is being made in regard to estimates offuture sealevel rise and its regional variation, and towardspredicting likely changes in the behaviour of the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Changes in rainfallamounts and intensity, and in extremes of surface temperatureare other critical climatic variables for coral reefs. Impactson coral reefs will result from a combination of stresses arisingfrom several aspects of global change, including stresses dueto sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, human damage (frommining, dredging, fishing and tourism), and changes in salinityand pollutant concentrations (nutrients, pesticides, herbicidesand particulates), and in ocean currents, ENSO, and storm damage.These may be exacerbated by any reduction in calcification ratesof corals due to changes in ocean chemistry. In view of ongoinguncertainties regarding future rates of change, especially atthe local scale, impact and adaptation assessments cannot provideunequivocal answers, but rather must be couched in terms ofprobabilities and risk. Reef communities which are presentlyunder stress are likely to be particularly vulnerable. Bothautonomous and managed (or planned) adaptations should be considered.     

Shading and Watering as a Tool to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Sea Turtle Nests

Increasing sand temperatures resulting from climate change may negatively impact sea turtle nests by altering sex ratios and decreasing reproductive output. We analyzed the effect of nest shading and watering on sand temperatures as climate mitigation strategies in a beach hatchery at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. We set up plots and placed thermocouples at depths of 45cm and 75cm. Half of the plots were shaded and half were exposed to the sun. Within these exposure treatments, we applied three watering treatments over one month, replicating local climatic conditions experienced in this area. We also examined gravimetric water content of sand by collecting sand samples the day before watering began, the day after watering was complete, and one month after completion. Shading had the largest impact on sand temperature, followed by watering and depth. All watering treatments lowered sand temperature, but the effect varied with depth. Temperatures in plots that received water returned to control levels within 10 days after watering stopped. Water content increased at both depths in the two highest water treatments, and 30 days after the end of water application remained higher than plots with low water. While the impacts of watering on sand temperature dissipate rapidly after the end of application, the impacts on water content are much more lasting. Although less effective at lowering sand temperatures than shading, watering may benefit sea turtle clutches by offsetting negative impacts of low levels of rain in particularly dry areas. Prior to implementing such strategies, the natural conditions at the location of interest (e.g. clutch depth, environmental conditions, and beach characteristics) and natural hatchling sex ratios should be taken into consideration. These results provide insight into the effectiveness of nest shading and watering as climate mitigation techniques and illustrate important points of consideration in the crafting of such strategies.     

Threatened Caribbean Coral Is Able to Mitigate the Adverse Effects of Ocean Acidification on Calcification by Increasing Feeding Rate

Global climate change threatens coral growth and reef ecosystem health via ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). Whereas the negative impacts of these stressors are increasingly well-documented, studies identifying pathways to resilience are still poorly understood. Heterotrophy has been shown to help corals experiencing decreases in growth due to either thermal or OA stress; however, the mechanism by which it mitigates these decreases remains unclear. This study tested the ability of coral heterotrophy to mitigate reductions in growth due to climate change stress in the critically endangered Caribbean coral Acropora cervicornis via changes in feeding rate and lipid content. Corals were either fed or unfed and exposed to elevated temperature (30°C), enriched pCO₂ (800 ppm), or both (30°C/800 ppm) as compared to a control (26°C/390 ppm) for 8 weeks. Feeding rate and lipid content both increased in corals experiencing OA vs. present-day conditions, and were significantly correlated. Fed corals were able to maintain ambient growth rates at both elevated temperature and elevated CO₂, while unfed corals experienced significant decreases in growth with respect to fed conspecifics. Our results show for the first time that a threatened coral species can buffer OA-reduced calcification by increasing feeding rates and lipid content.     

Growth Dynamics of the Threatened Caribbean Staghorn Coral Acropora cervicornis: Influence of Host Genotype,Symbiont Identity,Colony Size,and Environmental Setting

Background

The drastic decline in the abundance of Caribbean acroporid corals (Acropora cervicornis, A. palmata) has prompted the listing of this genus as threatened as well as the development of a regional propagation and restoration program. Using in situ underwater nurseries, we documented the influence of coral genotype and symbiont identity, colony size, and propagation method on the growth and branching patterns of staghorn corals in Florida and the Dominican Republic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Individual tracking of> 1700 nursery-grown staghorn fragments and colonies from 37 distinct genotypes (identified using microsatellites) in Florida and the Dominican Republic revealed a significant positive relationship between size and growth, but a decreasing rate of productivity with increasing size. Pruning vigor (enhanced growth after fragmentation) was documented even in colonies that lost 95% of their coral tissue/skeleton, indicating that high productivity can be maintained within nurseries by sequentially fragmenting corals. A significant effect of coral genotype was documented for corals grown in a common-garden setting, with fast-growing genotypes growing up to an order of magnitude faster than slow-growing genotypes. Algal-symbiont identity established using qPCR techniques showed that clade A (likely Symbiodinium A3) was the dominant symbiont type for all coral genotypes, except for one coral genotype in the DR and two in Florida that were dominated by clade C, with A- and C-dominated genotypes having similar growth rates.

Conclusion/Significance

The threatened Caribbean staghorn coral is capable of extremely fast growth, with annual productivity rates exceeding 5 cm of new coral produced for every cm of existing coral. This species benefits from high fragment survivorship coupled by the pruning vigor experienced by the parent colonies after fragmentation. These life-history characteristics make A. cervicornis a successful candidate nursery species and provide optimism for the potential role that active propagation can play in the recovery of this keystone species.     

Coral Community Adaptability to Environmental Change at the Scales of Regions, Reefs and Reef Zones

SYNOPSIS. Projected global increases in temperature, sea level,storminess and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are likely tocause changes in reef coral communities which the present humangeneration will view as deleterious. It is likely coral communitytrajectories will be influenced as much by the reduction inintervals between extreme events as the projected increasesin means of environmental parameters such as temperature, atmosphericCO₂ and sea-level. Depressed calcification rates in corals causedby reduced aragonite saturation state of water may increasevulnerability of corals to storms. Moreover, reduction in intervalsbetween storms and other extreme events causing mass mortalityin corals (coral predators, diseases, bleaching) are likelyto more frequently "set back" reef coral communities to earlysuccessional stages or alternate states characterized by non-calcifyingbenthos (plants, soft corals, sponges). The greater the areaand the longer the duration of dominance of putative "coral/corallinealgae" zones of coral reefs by non-calcifying stages, the lesswill be the reefs capacity to accrete limestone bulk lockedup in the big skeletal units of late successional stages (i.e.,very large old corals). Averaged over decades to centuries,the effects of such changes on the coral community's carryingcapacity for other biota such as fish are unpredictable. A "shiftingsteady-state mosaic" null model may provide a useful conceptualtool for defining a baseline and tracking changes from thatbaseline through time.     

Local and Regional Impacts of Pollution on Coral Reefs along the Thousand Islands North of the Megacity Jakarta,Indonesia

Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80% of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO₂, PO₄ and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.     

Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.     

New Species of Closely Related Endosymbiotic Dinoflagellates in the Greater Caribbean have Niches Corresponding to Host Coral Phylogeny

Symbiotic dinoflagellates in the genus Breviolum (formerly Symbiodinium Clade B) dominate coral communities in shallow waters across the Greater Caribbean. While some formally described species exist, mounting genetic, and ecological evidence indicate that numerous more comprise this genus, many of which are closely related. To test this, colonies of common reef‐building corals were sampled across a large geographical range. Phylogenetic and population genetic markers then used to examine evolutionary divergence and delineate boundaries of genetic recombination. Three new candidate species were distinguished by fixed differences in nucleotide sequences from nuclear and chloroplast DNA. Population connectivity was evident within each lineage over thousands of kilometers, however, substantial genetic structure persisted between lineages co‐occurring within sampling locations, signifying reproductive isolation. While geographically widespread with overlapping distributions, each species is ecologically distinct, exhibiting specific mutualisms with phylogenetically distinct coral hosts. Moreover, significant differences in mean cell sizes provide some morphological evidence substantiating formal species distinctions. In providing evidence that satisfies the biological, phylogenetic, ecological, and morphological species concepts, we classify and formally name Breviolum faviinorum n. sp., primarily associated with Caribbean corals belonging to the Caribbean subfamily Faviinae; B. meandrinium n. sp., associated with corals belonging to the family Meandrinidae; and B. dendrogyrum n. sp., a symbiont harbored exclusively by the threatened coral Dendrogyra cylindrus. These findings support the primary importance of niche diversification (i.e. host habitat) in the speciation of symbiotic dinoflagellates.     

Estimating Impacts of Climate Change Policy on Land Use: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Agriculture is important to New Zealand’s economy. Like other primary producers, New Zealand strives to increase agricultural output while maintaining environmental integrity. Utilising modelling to explore the economic, environmental and land use impacts of policy is critical to understand the likely effects on the sector. Key deficiencies within existing land use and land cover change models are the lack of heterogeneity in farmers and their behaviour, the role that social networks play in information transfer, and the abstraction of the global and regional economic aspects within local-scale approaches. To resolve these issues we developed the Agent-based Rural Land Use New Zealand model. The model utilises a partial equilibrium economic model and an agent-based decision-making framework to explore how the cumulative effects of individual farmer’s decisions affect farm conversion and the resulting land use at a catchment scale. The model is intended to assist in the development of policy to shape agricultural land use intensification in New Zealand. We illustrate the model, by modelling the impact of a greenhouse gas price on farm-level land use, net revenue, and environmental indicators such as nutrient losses and soil erosion for key enterprises in the Hurunui and Waiau catchments of North Canterbury in New Zealand. Key results from the model show that farm net revenue is estimated to increase over time regardless of the greenhouse gas price. Net greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to decline over time, even under a no GHG price baseline, due to an expansion of forestry on low productivity land. Higher GHG prices provide a greater net reduction of emissions. While social and geographic network effects have minimal impact on net revenue and environmental outputs for the catchment, they do have an effect on the spatial arrangement of land use and in particular the clustering of enterprises.     

Guide to authors preparing papers for the 7th International Coral Reef Symposium and for publication in Coral Reefs

This is a statement of the problem, along with a summary of the method adopted for solving the problem, the major results and conclusions, and an explanation regarding the importance of the research. The Abstract should not include phrases such as the results will be discussed....The organising committee for the 7th International Coral Reef Symposium, to be held in Guam from 22–26 June 1992, have adopted the Coral Reefs format for all papers that are to be published in the conference proceedings. Following are some suggestions for writing and structuring papers. These tips may prove helpful to the less-experienced author.     

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Vernal Pool Ecosystems and Endemic Branchiopods

This study evaluated the hydrologic sensitivity of vernal pool ecosystems in the Central Valley of California to climatic changes projected for 2100. A vernal pool water-balance model was used to evaluate rain-fed vernal pools at four locations under future conditions projected by two contrasting global climate models. The potential for change in the duration of continuous inundation, frequency of reproductively suitable inundation events, and the seasonal distribution of inundation was quantified. The potential impact of hydrologic changes varied by species and by location. Three scales of response were identified: (a) At the regional scale, pools in the middle of the Central Valley near Merced were the most responsive to climatic changes. (b) At the local scale, smaller, shallower pools had the greatest potential to change the distribution of reproductively suitable habitat available to branchiopods. (c) At the individual pool scale, changes in precipitation will dominate changes in temperature, resulting in relatively linear responses in the duration of inundation. The ecological impact of these changes will be determined by a balance between the increasing suitability of vernal pools for branchiopod predators and the hydrologic improvement of currently marginal habitats.     

Indicators of UV Exposure in Corals and Their Relevance to Global Climate Change and Coral Bleaching

A compelling aspect of the deterioration of coral reefs is the phenomenon of coral bleaching. Through interactions with other factors such as sedimentation, pollution, and bacterial infection, bleaching can impact large areas of a reef with limited recovery, and it might be induced by a variety of stressors including temperature and salinity extremes, and ultraviolet light. Under conditions of ocean warming, often associated with calm and stratified waters, photobleaching of UV-absorb-ing chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is increased, and penetration of both UV-B and UV-A is greatly enhanced. Indices of UV-specific effects in coral tissue are needed to test whether UV increases, associated with global climate change, are harmful to corals. To address this challenge, we have evaluated UV-specific effects in corals and have characterized factors that alter penetration of UV radiation over coral reefs. An immunoblotting assay was developed to examine UV-specific lesions (thymine dimers) in coral and zooxanthellae DNA. We observed dose-dependent increases of thymine dimers in coral (Porites porites var porites) exposed to artificial solar irradiance in a solar simulator, although effects were not strictly proportional. UV measurements were made in July 1999 at Eastern Sambo reef and nearby sites, including profiling along transects from reef to shore. Results of these analyses indicate that the coral at Eastern Sambo reef (at 3-4 meters) were receiving UV-B radiation that was equivalent to 25 to 30% of surface UV irradiance. However, the water just inside the reef in Hawk Channel (located closer to land) was considerably more opaque to UV. This water photobleached with loss of UV absorbance and fluorescence when it was exposed to simulated solar radiation. These results indicate that photobleaching of the DOM and transport of near-shore water out over the reefs might play a key role in controlling UV penetration to the reef surface.     

Diel Variability in Seawater pH Relates to Calcification and Benthic Community Structure on Coral Reefs

Community structure and assembly are determined in part by environmental heterogeneity. While reef-building corals respond negatively to warming (i.e. bleaching events) and ocean acidification (OA), the extent of present-day natural variability in pH on shallow reefs and ecological consequences for benthic assemblages is unknown. We documented high resolution temporal patterns in temperature and pH from three reefs in the central Pacific and examined how these data relate to community development and net accretion rates of early successional benthic organisms. These reefs experienced substantial diel fluctuations in temperature (0.78°C) and pH (>0.2) similar to the magnitude of 'warming' and 'acidification' expected over the next century. Where daily pH within the benthic boundary layer failed to exceed pelagic climatological seasonal lows, net accretion was slower and fleshy, non-calcifying benthic organisms dominated space. Thus, key aspects of coral reef ecosystem structure and function are presently related to natural diurnal variability in pH.