Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

Changes in migration phenology and biometrical traits of Reed,Marsh and Sedge Warblers

Global environmental processes like climate change could severely affect population level migratory behaviour of long range migrant birds. We analyzed changes in migration phenology and biometrics of three closely-related long-distance migrant Acrocephalus species. We used the records of 12 063 Sedge, 12 913 Reed, and 5 409 Marsh Warblers caught and ringed between 1989–2009, at a Hungarian stopover site. Quantile regressions were used to analyse the changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. Median spring arrival date of Sedge and Reed Warblers shifted 6.5 and 7.5 days earlier, respectively. Autumn arrival of all species shifted one (Reed and Marsh Warblers) or two (Sedge Warbler) weeks later. Mean body mass of adult Reed and Marsh Warblers decreased in spring (by 0.3 and 0.2 grams, respectively) and in autumn (by 0.8 and 0.2 grams, respectively) while body mass of adult Sedge Warblers decreased only in autumn (by 0.4 grams). Mean wing length of all species increased significantly (range of change: 0.6–1 mm). Despite the fact that the studied species are closely related, all three have remarkably different migration strategies. However, similar patterns can be observed in the studied parameters, indicating that global processes may have general effects on these species, albeit through markedly different mechanisms.     

Weather variation affects the dispersal of grasshoppers beyond their elevational ranges

1. Understanding how abiotic conditions influence dispersal patterns of organisms is important for understanding the degree to which species can track and persist in the face of changing climate.
2. The goal of this study was to understand how weather conditions influence the dispersal pattern of multiple nonmigratory grasshopper species from lower elevation grassland habitats in which they complete their life‐cycles to higher elevations that extend beyond their range limits.
3. Using over a decade of weekly spring to late‐summer field survey data along an elevational gradient, we explored how abundance and richness of dispersing grasshoppers were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. We also examined how changes in population sizes at lower elevations might influence these patterns.
4. We observed that the abundance of dispersing grasshoppers along the gradient declined 4‐fold from the foothills to the subalpine and increased with warmer conditions and when wind flow patterns were mild or in the downslope direction. Thirty‐eight unique grasshopper species from lowland sites were detected as dispersers across the survey years, and warmer years and weak upslope wind conditions also increased the richness of these grasshoppers. The pattern of grasshoppers along the gradient was not sex biased. The positive effect of temperature on dispersal rates was likely explained by an increase in dispersal propensity rather than by an increase in the density of grasshoppers at low elevation sites.
5. The results of this study support the hypothesis that the dispersal patterns of organisms are influenced by changing climatic conditions themselves and as such, that this context‐dependent dispersal response should be considered when modeling and forecasting the ability of species to respond to climate change.

     

Test of theory of foraging mode: Goldcrests,Regulus regulus,forage by high‐yield,energy‐expensive hovering flight when food is abundant but use low‐yield,low‐cost methods when food is scarce

1. Here, I describe foraging behavior of goldcrests, Regulus regulus, based on eight years of field observation in a coniferous forest dominated by Norway spruce Picea abies in southwestern Sweden. The aim was to test predictions from theory on the choice of optimal foraging modes in relation to food availability.
2. Mortality from early November to early March amounts to 70–86% among goldcrests in the resident population, suggesting they are food‐limited in winter. Food‐limitation manifests itself as a shortage of time for foraging. It promotes the use of foraging methods that minimize the daily foraging time by maximizing the rate of net energy gain. It increases both individual survival and competitiveness. Elimination of competitors by exploitation occurs when an individual is able to support itself, while food density in the habitat is reduced to levels at which others cannot.
3. Theory shows that when food is abundant, high‐efficiency energy‐expensive search and capture methods give shorter daily foraging times than low‐efficiency low‐cost methods, whereas the latter gives shorter daily foraging times at food shortages (Norberg 2021). Hovering flight is extremely expensive in energy but results in high foraging efficiency. Hover‐foraging should therefore be used when food is abundant.
4. In autumn, there were 85.3 arthropods per kilogram of branch mass, as opposed to 12.9 in spring. The numerical decline of arthropods, their fat metabolism, and size‐biased predation by birds reduced the spring density of food for goldcrests to less than 15.1% of the autumn density.
5. Hover‐foraging occurred 5.29 times per minute in autumn but only 0.23 times per minute in spring, which is 4.4% of the autumn frequency.
6. Foraging conditions are favorable at midsummer because of long days, high temperatures, and an abundance of arthropod prey. Parent birds that were feeding fledglings gathered food at a high rate and hovered 5.42 times per minute. But adults with no young to feed were not compelled to maximize the rate of net energy gain and only hover‐foraged 0.52 times per minute, which is 10% of that of providers.
7. These results are highly consistent from year to year and in qualitative agreement with theory.

Goldcrests minimize daily foraging time by using high‐efficiency energy‐expensive hover‐foraging when food is abundant but low‐efficiency low‐cost methods at food shortages.     

Long‐term changes in autumn migration dates at the Strait of Gibraltar reflect population trends of soaring birds

A growing body of work shows that climate change is the cause of a number of directional shifts in the spring phenology of migratory birds. However, changes in autumn phenology are well studied and their consistency across species, as well as their link with population trends, remains uncertain. We investigate changes in the autumn migration dates of 11 species of soaring birds over the Strait of Gibraltar over a 16‐year period. Using models corrected for phylogeny, we assessed whether ecological and morphological characteristics, as well as population trends, account for interspecific shifts in migration times. We recorded different phenological changes in different periods of the migration season and suggest that these differences are due to age‐dependent responses. The variable best predicting advances in migration dates was population trend: species that did not advance their autumn migration dates were those showing a decline in their European breeding populations. We repeated our tests on a dataset representing the migration date of soaring birds across the Pyrenees Mountains and found that population trends at this site also predicted phenological shifts. Our results suggest that flexibility in migratory strategy and population trends may be related, such that different adaptive capacity in migration timing may be more relevant than other ecological traits in determining the conservation status of migratory birds in Europe and perhaps other regions.     

A place to land: spatiotemporal drivers of stopover habitat use by migrating birds

Migrating birds require en route habitats to rest and refuel. Yet, habitat use has never been integrated with passage to understand the factors that determine where and when birds stopover during spring and autumn migration. Here, we introduce the stopover‐to‐passage ratio (SPR), the percentage of passage migrants that stop in an area, and use 8 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radars to estimate over 50% SPR during spring and autumn through the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the south‐eastern US, the most prominent corridor for North America’s migratory birds. During stopovers, birds concentrated close to the coast during spring and inland in forested landscapes during autumn, suggesting seasonal differences in habitat function and highlighting the vital role of stopover habitats in sustaining migratory communities. Beyond advancing understanding of migration ecology, SPR will facilitate conservation through identification of sites that are disproportionally selected for stopover by migrating birds.     

Favorable spring conditions can buffer the impact of winter carryover effects on a key breeding decision in an Arctic‐breeding seabird

1. The availability and investment of energy among successive life‐history stages is a key feature of carryover effects. In migratory organisms, examining how both winter and spring experiences carryover to affect breeding activity is difficult due to the challenges in tracking individuals through these periods without impacting their behavior, thereby biasing results.
2. Using common eiders Somateria mollissima, we examined whether spring conditions at an Arctic breeding colony (East Bay Island, Nunavut, Canada) can buffer the impacts of winter temperatures on body mass and breeding decisions in birds that winter at different locations (Nuuk and Disko Bay, Greenland, and Newfoundland, Canada; assessed by analyzing stable isotopes of 13‐carbon in winter‐grown claw samples). Specifically, we used path analysis to examine how wintering and spring environmental conditions interact to affect breeding propensity (a key reproductive decision influencing lifetime fitness in female eiders) within the contexts of the timing of colony arrival, pre‐breeding body mass (body condition), and a physiological proxy for foraging effort (baseline corticosterone).
3. We demonstrate that warmer winter temperatures predicted lower body mass at arrival to the nesting colony, whereas warmer spring temperatures predicted earlier arrival dates and higher arrival body mass. Both higher body mass and earlier arrival dates of eider hens increased the probability that birds would initiate laying (i.e., higher breeding propensity). However, variation in baseline corticosterone was not linked to either winter or spring temperatures, and it had no additional downstream effects on breeding propensity.
4. Overall, we demonstrate that favorable pre‐breeding conditions in Arctic‐breeding common eiders can compensate for the impact that unfavorable wintering conditions can have on breeding investment, perhaps due to greater access to foraging areas prior to laying.

     

Investigating connectivity and seasonal differences in wind assistance in the migration of Common Sandpipers

Many migratory bird species have undergone recent population declines, but there is considerable variation in trends between species and between populations employing different migratory routes. Understanding species-specific migratory behaviours is therefore of critical importance for their conservation. The Common Sandpiper Actitis hypoleucos is an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species whose European populations are in decline. We fitted geolocators to individuals breeding in England or wintering in Senegal to determine their migration routes and breeding or non-breeding locations. We used these geolocator data in combination with previously published data from Scottish breeding birds to determine the distributions and migratory connectivity of breeding (English and Scottish) and wintering (Senegalese) populations of the Common Sandpiper, and used simulated random migrations to investigate wind assistance during autumn and spring migration. We revealed that the Common Sandpipers tagged in England spent the winter in West Africa, and that at least some birds wintering in Senegal bred in Scandinavia; this provides insights into the links between European breeding populations and their wintering grounds. Furthermore, birds tagged in England, Scotland and Senegal overlapped considerably in their migration routes and wintering locations, meaning that local breeding populations could be buffered against habitat change, but susceptible to large-scale environmental changes. These findings also suggest that contrasting population trends in England and Scotland are unlikely to be the result of population-specific migration routes and wintering regions. Finally, we found that birds used wind to facilitate their migration in autumn, but less so in spring, when the wind costs associated with their migrations were higher than expected at random. This was despite the wind costs of simulated migrations being significantly lower in spring than in autumn. Indeed, theory suggests that individuals are under greater time pressures in spring than in autumn because of the time constraints associated with reproduction.     

Real-time weather analysis reveals the adaptability of direct sea-crossing by raptors

Many animals seasonally travel between their breeding and wintering grounds. With their advanced mobility, birds often migrate over thousands of kilometres. Recently, satellite-tracking studies have revealed peculiar migration routes for some avian species at a global scale. However, the adaptability of such migration routes has not been clearly demonstrated. Using satellite-tracking data for 33 individuals, we show that the Japanese population of Oriental honey-buzzards (Pernis ptilorhynchus) directly crosses the 650-km-wide East China Sea during their autumn migration, although they fly a longer route around the sea rather than directly crossing it during their spring migration. By applying aerodynamic theory, we show that the buzzards could cross the sea by soaring and gliding flight. Moreover, using a high-resolution meteorological-prediction analysis, we demonstrate that the migratory trajectory of the birds strongly depends on the wind direction at their estimated locations. In the area, northeastern tailwinds blow stably only during autumn. Thermals were abundant ca. 500–1,000 m over the East China Sea in autumn, but that was not the case in spring. We suggest that the autumn-migration route across the East China Sea is likely to have evolved in response to the specific weather conditions over the sea. Animations showing movements of Oriental honey-buzzards and temporal change in weather conditions are available at: , , , , , and .     

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.     

The effects of hatching date on timing of autumn migration in partial migrants – an individual approach

Timing of spring migration and breeding and their interaction with climate change has been widely studied in recent years, but the possible changes in timing of autumn migration have gained less attention. This work focuses on autumn migration and provides the first multi‐species individual‐based study of how hatching date affects the autumn migration date and migration age by using nestling ring data and re‐trappings of the same individuals during the autumn migration at the Hanko Bird Observatory, Finland. We studied three potentially multibrooded passerines (great tit, blue tit and coal tit) and two single‐brooded birds of prey (goshawk, sparrowhawk), all partially migratory short‐distance migrants. Individuals from late broods migrated at a younger age in all tit species and also in hawks the late hatched individuals tended to migrate at a younger age than the early‐hatched individuals. Late‐hatched individuals migrated later than early‐hatched individuals in blue and coal tits, where the latest hatchers represented second brood individuals. Based on our results, the time from hatching to autumn migration is not constant even among individuals of the same population. Our study indicates that climate warming induced advancement of avian breeding may cause changes in the timing of autumn migration through the frequency of second broods.     

Climate alters the movement ecology of a non‐migratory bird

Global climate change is causing increased climate extremes threatening biodiversity and altering ecosystems. Climate is comprised of many variables including air temperature, barometric pressure, solar radiation, wind, relative humidity, and precipitation that interact with each other. As movement connects various aspects of an animal''s life, understanding how climate influences movement at a fine‐temporal scale will be critical to the long‐term conservation of species impacted by climate change. The sedentary nature of non‐migratory species could increase some species risk of extirpation caused by climate change. We used Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model to better understand the relationship between climate and the movement ecology of a non‐migratory species at a fine‐temporal scale. We collected movement data on bobwhite from across western Oklahoma during 2019–2020 and paired these data with meteorological data. We analyzed movement in three different ways (probability of movement, hourly distance moved, and sinuosity) using two calculated movement metrics: hourly movement (displacement between two consecutive fixes an hour apart) and sinuosity (a form of tortuosity that determines the amount of curvature of a random search path). We used generalized linear‐mixed models to analyze probability of movement and hourly distance moved, and used linear‐mixed models to analyze sinuosity. The interaction between air temperature and solar radiation affected probability of movement and hourly distance moved. Bobwhite movement increased as air temperature increased beyond 10°C during low solar radiation. During medium and high solar radiation, bobwhite moved farther as air temperature increased until 25–30°C when hourly distance moved plateaued. Bobwhite sinuosity increased as solar radiation increased. Our results show that specific climate variables alter the fine‐scale movement of a non‐migratory species. Understanding the link between climate and movement is important to determining how climate change may impact a species’ space use and fitness now and in the future.     

Advanced departure dates in long-distance migratory raptors

Evidences for phenological changes in response to climate change are now numerous. One of the most documented changes has been the advance of spring arrival dates in migratory birds. However, the effects of climate change on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly studied and understood. Moreover, the rare studies on autumn migration have mainly concerned passerines. Here, we investigated whether raptor species have changed their autumn migratory phenology during the past 30 years at one of the most important convergent points of western European migration routes in France, the Organbidexka pass, in the Western Pyrenees. Eight out of the 14 studied raptor species showed significant phenological shifts during 1981–2008. Long-distance migrants displayed stronger phenological responses than short-distance migrants, and advanced their mean passage dates significantly. As only some short-distance migrants were found to delay their autumn migration and as their trends in breeding and migrating numbers were not significantly negative, we were not able to show any possible settling process of raptor populations. Negative trends in numbers of migrating raptors were found to be related to weaker phenological responses. Further studies using data from other migration sites are necessary to investigate eventual changes in migration routes and possible settling process.     

Impact of climate change on migratory birds: community reassembly versus adaptation

Aim Species can respond to global climate change by range shifts or by phenotypic adaptation. At the community level, range shifts lead to a turnover of species, i.e. community reassembly. In contrast, phenotypic adaptation allows species to persist in situ, conserving community composition. So far, community reassembly and adaptation have mostly been studied separately. In nature, however, both processes take place simultaneously. In migratory birds, climate change has been shown to result in both exchange of species and adaptation of migratory behaviour. The aim of our study is to predict the impact of global climate change on migratory bird communities and to assess the extent to which reassembly and adaptation may contribute to alterations. Location Europe. Methods We analysed the relationship between current climate and the proportion of migratory species across bird assemblages in Europe. The magnitude of community reassembly was measured using spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species. Adaptation was inferred from spatial variation in the proportion of potentially migratory species that actually migrate at a specific site. These spatial relationships were used to make temporal predictions of changes in migratory species under global climate change. Results According to our models, increasing winter temperature is expected to lead to declines in the proportion of migratory species, whereas increasing spring temperature and decreasing spring precipitation may lead to increases. Changes in winter and spring temperature are expected to cause mainly adaptation in migratory activity, while changes in spring precipitation may result in both changes in the proportion of potentially migratory species and adaptation of migratory activity. Main conclusions Under current climate change forecasts, changes in the proportion of migratory species will be modest and the communities of migratory birds in Europe are projected to be altered through adaptation of migratory activity rather than through exchange of species.     

Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental‐scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

We developed a continental energetics‐based model of daily mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) movement during the non‐breeding period (September to May) to predict year‐specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non‐breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non‐breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter‐annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non‐breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.     

Effect of global warming on the timing of migration and breeding of passerine birds in the 20th century

Long-term monitoring of the dates of arrival, breeding, and autumn migration in 25 passerine bird species on the Kurshskaya (Courland) Spit, the Baltic Sea, has shown that spring migration and nesting in most species wintering in Europe or Africa have shifted to earlier dates in the past two decades, whereas the dates of autumn migration in most species studied have not changed significantly. In 16 bird species, a significant negative correlation of the timing of arrival and breeding with the average spring air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in February and March was revealed. In years with early and warm springs, birds arrived at the spit and nested considerably earlier than in years with cold springs. The dates of autumn migration in most species studied largely depended on the timing of nesting but not on weather conditions in autumn. The data obtained indicate that the main factor responsible for long-term changes in the timing of arrival, nesting, and autumn migrations of passerine birds in the Baltic Region is climate fluctuations that led to considerable changes in thermal conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century. The hypothesis is proposed that recent climate warming has caused changes in the timing of not only the arrival of birds in Europe but also of their spring migrations from Africa. Further changes in the dates of passerine bird arrival and breeding in the Palearctic in subsequent years will largely depend on the dynamics of winter and spring air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the timing of autumn migrations will be determined mainly by the dates of their arrival and nesting.     

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

相似文献   

Drivers and consequences of partial migration in an alpine bird species

1. Partial migration, where a portion of the population migrates between winter and summer (breeding) areas and the rest remain year‐round resident, is a common phenomenon across several taxonomic groups. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain why some individuals migrate while others stay resident, as well as the fitness consequences of the different strategies. Yet, the drivers and consequences of the decision to migrate or not are poorly understood.
2. We used data from radio‐tagged female (n = 73) willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus in an alpine study area in Central Norway to test if (i) the decision to migrate was dependent on individual state variables (age and body weight), (ii) individuals repeated migratory decisions between seasons, and (iii) the choice of migratory strategy was related to reproductive success.
3. Partially supporting our prediction that migratory strategy depends on individual state, we found that juvenile birds with small body sizes were more likely to migrate, whereas large juveniles remained resident. For adult females, we found no relationship between the decision to migrate or stay resident and body weight. We found evidence for high individual repeatability of migratory decision between seasons. Migratory strategy did not explain variation in clutch size or nest fate among individuals, suggesting no direct influence of the chosen strategy on reproductive success.
4. Our results indicate that partial migration in willow ptarmigan is related to juvenile body weight, and that migratory behavior becomes a part of the individual life history as a fixed strategy. Nesting success was not affected by migratory strategy in our study population, but future studies should assess other traits to further test potential fitness consequences.

     

Holding steady: Little change in intensity or timing of bird migration over the Gulf of Mexico

Quantifying the timing and intensity of migratory movements is imperative for understanding impacts of changing landscapes and climates on migratory bird populations. Billions of birds migrate in the Western Hemisphere, but accurately estimating the population size of one migratory species, let alone hundreds, presents numerous obstacles. Here, we quantify the timing, intensity, and distribution of bird migration through one of the largest migration corridors in the Western Hemisphere, the Gulf of Mexico (the Gulf). We further assess whether there have been changes in migration timing or intensity through the Gulf. To achieve this, we integrate citizen science (eBird) observations with 21 years of weather surveillance radar data (1995–2015). We predicted no change in migration timing and a decline in migration intensity across the time series. We estimate that an average of 2.1 billion birds pass through this region each spring en route to Nearctic breeding grounds. Annually, half of these individuals pass through the region in just 18 days, between April 19 and May 7. The western region of the Gulf showed a mean rate of passage 5.4 times higher than the central and eastern regions. We did not detect an overall change in the annual numbers of migrants (2007–2015) or the annual timing of peak migration (1995–2015). However, we found that the earliest seasonal movements through the region occurred significantly earlier over time (1.6 days decade^?1). Additionally, body mass and migration distance explained the magnitude of phenological changes, with the most rapid advances occurring with an assemblage of larger‐bodied shorter‐distance migrants. Our results provide baseline information that can be used to advance our understanding of the developing implications of climate change, urbanization, and energy development for migratory bird populations in North America.     

Wind conditions facilitate the seasonal water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards Pernis ptilorhynchus over the East China Sea

Migratory raptors rarely fly over stretches of water larger than 25 km, although different species undertake water crossings of varying lengths, depending mainly on their wing morphology. Oriental Honey‐buzzards fly c. 680 km over the East China Sea in autumn from breeding areas in Japan to wintering areas in Southeast Asia, but avoid this long water crossing in spring. We investigated the effects of weather on this exceptional migratory behaviour and its seasonality through a maximum entropy niche modelling approach. We used data collected through satellite tracking of 31 adult birds as presence points and a set of variables related to wind, precipitation and convective condition as environmental predictors. Results of modelling showed very different, almost non‐overlapping, areas suitable for migration over the East China Sea region in autumn and spring. Suitable migration routes in autumn mostly occurred over the sea, whereas suitable areas for spring migration mostly occurred over land, suggesting that circumnavigating the East China Sea is preferable in spring. At the regional scale, wind conditions facilitate water‐crossing behaviour of Oriental Honey‐buzzards in autumn, but not in spring. Specifically, suitable tailwinds over the sea enable water‐crossing in autumn, whereas in spring, wind support and convective conditions are best over land. Our modelling did not suggest any importance of convective conditions for autumn migration. However, we expect that at smaller temporal scales, convective conditions would be a considerable facilitator of the water‐crossing behaviour in this species.