Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

生境片断化对濒危植物景东翅子树种群结构与动态的影响

生境的破坏及其片断化是生物多样性丧失的主要原因, 了解生境片断化对植物种群动态的影响十分必要。本文比较分析了不同大小生境片断(5 ha和15 ha)和连续森林中濒危植物景东翅子树(Pterospermum kingtungense)种群的结构与动态, 目的是明确影响景东翅子树种群动态的关键生活史阶段及其种群保护的目标, 为濒危植物种群保护和管理策略的制定提供科学依据。在上述3种生境中分别设立3个50 m × 100 m的1.5 ha固定样地, 调查景东翅子树所有个体的胸径(其中幼苗和幼树为地径)和高度、个体的存活及幼苗的补充情况。基于上述统计参数, 建立预测种群动态的Lefkovitch矩阵模型, 同时应用矩阵模型的弹性分析方法量化种群统计参数对种群增长率的相对贡献。结果表明: (1)在5 ha和15 ha生境片断及连续森林各1.5 ha的样地中, 2018年首次调查到景东翅子树的个体数分别为34、82和88株, 2019年复查时的个体数分别为33、82和87株。3种生境中景东翅子树种群的年龄结构均以幼树为主, 但5 ha生境片断森林缺乏幼苗和大树(包括成树和亚成树), 而15 ha生境片断森林幼苗较丰富。(2)在3种生境中景东翅子树种群的增长率等于1 (15 ha生境片断)或趋近于1 (5 ha生境片断和连续森林), 说明不同生境中的景东翅子树种群比较稳定, 这主要是因为其各生活史阶段的存活率均较高。(3)景东翅子树成树和亚成树阶段的存活率对种群增长率的贡献最大, 是影响其种群动态的关键生活史阶段。因此对于大树(包括成树和亚成树)的保护是极度濒危植物景东翅子树种群维持的关键。研究结果揭示小生境片断降低了景东翅子树种群的数量, 改变了种群的结构, 但对种群动态的影响效应尚未显现。因此对于这些小生境片断中濒危植物种群的保护和恢复是可行的, 也是有价值的。     

The effects of functional response and host abundance fluctuations on genetic rescue in parasitoids with single‐locus sex determination

Many parasitoids have single‐locus complementary sex determination (sl‐CSD), which produces sterile or inviable males when homozygous at the sex determining locus. A previous study theoretically showed that small populations have elevated risks of extinction due to the positive feedback between inbreeding and small population size, referred to as the diploid male vortex. A few modeling studies have suggested that the diploid male vortex may not be as common because balancing selection at sex determining loci tends to maintain high allelic diversity in spatially structured populations. However, the generality of the conclusion is yet uncertain, as they were drawn either from models developed for particular systems or from a general‐purpose competition model. To attest the conclusion, we study several well‐studied host–parasitoid models that incorporate functional response specifying the number of attacked hosts given a host density and derive the conditions for a diploid male vortex in a single population. Then, we develop spatially structured individual‐based versions of the models to include female behavior, diploid male fertility, and temporal fluctuations. The results show that producing a handful of successful offspring per female parasitoid could enable parasitoid persistence when a typical number of CSD alleles are present. The effect of functional response depends on the levels of fluctuations in host abundance, and inviable or partially fertile diploid males and a small increase in dispersal can alleviate the risk of a diploid male vortex. Our work supports the generality of effective genetic rescue in spatially connected parasitoid populations with sl‐CSD. However, under more variable climate, the efficacy of the CSD mechanism may substantially decline.     

The role of long‐distance seed dispersal in the local population dynamics of an invasive plant species

Aim Long‐distance dispersal is important for plant population dynamics at larger spatial scales, but our understanding of this phenomenon is mostly based on computer modelling rather than field data. This paper, by combining field data and a simulation model, quantifies the fraction of the seed of the alien species Heracleum mantegazzianum that needs to disperse over a long distance for successful invasion. Location Central Europe, Czech Republic. Methods To assess the role of random dispersal in long‐term population dynamics of the studied species, we combined longitudinal data covering 50 years of the invasion of this plant from its very start, inferred from a series of aerial photographs of 60‐ha plots, with data on population dynamics at a fine scale of 10‐m² plots. Results A simulation model based on field data indicates that the fraction of seed that is dispersed from source plants not described by the short‐distance dispersal kernel ranges from 0.1 to 7.5% of the total seed set. The fraction of long‐distance dispersed seed that provides the best prediction of the observed spread was significantly negatively correlated with the percentage of habitats suitable for invasion. Main conclusions Our results indicate that the fraction of seeds that needed to be dispersed over long distances to account for the observed invasion dynamics decreased with increasing proportion of invasible habitats, indicating that the spatial pattern of propagule pressure differs in landscapes prone to invasion. Long‐distance dispersal is an important component of the population dynamics of an invasive species even at relatively small scales.     

Age‐specific habitat preference,carrying capacity,and landscape structure determine the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐driven age truncation

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying spatial variability of exploited fish is critical for the sustainable management of fish stocks. Empirical studies suggest that size‐selective fishing can elevate fish population spatial variability (i.e., more heterogeneous distribution) through age truncation, making the population less resilient to changing environment. However, species differ in how their spatial variability responds to age truncation and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
2. We hypothesize that age‐specific habitat preference, together with environmental carrying capacity and landscape structure, determines the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐induced age truncation. To test these hypotheses, we design an individual‐based model of an age‐structured fish population on a two‐dimensional landscape under size‐selective fishing. Individual fish reproduces and survives, and moves between habitats according to age‐specific habitat preference and density‐dependent habitat selection.
3. Population spatial variability elevates with increasing age truncation, and the response is stronger for populations with stronger age‐specific habitat preference. On a gradient landscape, reducing carrying capacity elevates the relative importance of density dependence in habitat selection, which weakens the response of spatial variability to age truncation for populations with strong age‐specific habitat preference. On a fragmented landscape, both populations with strong and weak age‐specific habitat preferences are restricted at local optimal habitats, and reducing carrying capacity weakens the responses of spatial variability to age truncation for both populations.
4. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that to track and predict the changes in population spatial variability under exploitation, it is essential to consider the interactive effects of age‐specific habitat preference, carrying capacity, and landscape structure. To improve spatial management in fisheries, it is crucial to enhance empirical and theoretical developments in the methodology to quantify age‐specific habitat preference of marine fish, and to understand how climatic change influences carrying capacity and landscape continuity.

     

Ecological theory of mutualism: Robust patterns of stability and thresholds in two‐species population models

Mutualisms are ubiquitous in nature, provide important ecosystem services, and involve many species of interest for conservation. Theoretical progress on the population dynamics of mutualistic interactions, however, comparatively lagged behind that of trophic and competitive interactions, leading to the impression that ecologists still lack a generalized framework to investigate the population dynamics of mutualisms. Yet, over the last 90 years, abundant theoretical work has accumulated, ranging from abstract to detailed. Here, we review and synthesize historical models of two‐species mutualisms. We find that population dynamics of mutualisms are qualitatively robust across derivations, including levels of detail, types of benefit, and inspiring systems. Specifically, mutualisms tend to exhibit stable coexistence at high density and destabilizing thresholds at low density. These dynamics emerge when benefits of mutualism saturate, whether due to intrinsic or extrinsic density dependence in intraspecific processes, interspecific processes, or both. We distinguish between thresholds resulting from Allee effects, low partner density, and high partner density, and their mathematical and conceptual causes. Our synthesis suggests that there exists a robust population dynamic theory of mutualism that can make general predictions.     

Disentangling complex genomic signals to understand population structure of an exploited,estuarine‐dependent flatfish

Interpreting contemporary patterns of population structure requires an understanding of the interactions among microevolutionary forces and past demographic events. Here, 4,122 SNP‐containing loci were used to assess structure in southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) sampled across its range in the US Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic) and Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) and relationships among components of genomic variation and spatial and environmental variables were assessed across estuarine population samples in the Gulf. While hierarchical amova revealed significant heterogeneity within and between the Atlantic and Gulf, pairwise comparisons between samples within ocean basins demonstrated that all significant heterogeneity occurred within the Gulf. The distribution of Tajima''s D estimated at a genome‐wide scale differed significantly from equilibrium in all estuaries, with more negative values occurring in the Gulf. Components of genomic variation were significantly associated with environmental variables describing individual estuaries, and environment explained a larger component of variation than spatial proximity. Overall, results suggest that there is genetic spatial autocorrelation caused by shared larval sources for proximal nurseries (migration/drift), but that it is modified by environmentally driven differentiation (selection). This leads to conflicting signals in different parts of the genome and creates patterns of divergence that do not correspond to paradigms of strong local directional selection.     

Variation of the seed endophytic bacteria among plant populations and their plant growth‐promoting activities in a wild mustard plant species,Capsella bursa‐pastoris

Recent studies have revealed that some bacteria can inhabit plant seeds, and they are likely founders of the bacterial community in the rhizosphere of or inside plants at the early developmental stage. Given that the seedling establishment is a critical fitness component of weedy plant species, the effects of seed endophytic bacteria (SEB) on the seedling performance are of particular interest in weed ecology. Here, we characterized the SEB in natural populations of Capsella bursa‐pastoris, a model species of weed ecology. The composition of endophytic bacterial community was evaluated using deep sequencing of a 16S rDNA gene fragment. Additionally, we isolated bacterial strains from seeds and examined their plant growth‐promoting traits. Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, Alpha‐, and Gammaproteobacteria were major bacterial phyla inside seeds. C. bursa‐pastoris natural populations exhibited variable seed microbiome such that the proportion of Actinobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria differed among populations, and 60 out of 82 OTUs occurred only in a single population. Thirteen cultivable bacterial species in six genera (Bacillus, Rhodococcus, Streptomyces, Staphylococcus, Paenibacillus, Pseudomonas) were isolated, and none of them except Staphylococcus haemolyticus were previously reported as seed endophytes. Eight isolates exhibited plant growth‐promoting traits like phosphate solubilization activity, indole‐3‐acetic acid, or siderophore production. Despite the differences in the bacterial communities among plant populations, at least one isolated strain from each population stimulated shoot growth of either C. bursa‐pastoris or its close relative A. thaliana when grown with plants in the same media. These results suggest that a weedy plant species, C. bursa‐pastoris, contains bacterial endophytes inside their seeds, stimulating seedling growth and thereby potentially affecting seedling establishment.     

Population dynamics of the glacial relict amphipods in a subarctic lake: role of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors

Relative role of intrinsic density‐dependent factors (such as inter‐ and intraspecific competition, predation) and extrinsic density‐independent factors (environmental changes) in population dynamics is a key issue in ecology. Density‐dependent mechanisms are considered as important drivers of population dynamics in many vertebrate and insect species; however, their influence on the population dynamics of freshwater invertebrates is not clearly understood. In this study, I examined interannual variations in the abundance of the glacial relict amphipod Monoporeia affinis in a small subarctic lake based on long‐term (2002–2019) monitoring data. The results suggest that the population dynamics of amphipods in the lake is influenced by the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The reproductive success of amphipod cohorts was inversely related to its initial abundance, indicating it is influenced by density‐dependent factors. M. affinis recruitment was negatively correlated with population density and near‐bottom temperature but positively correlated with food availability, which is defined as the concentration of chlorophyll a. Multiple regression with chlorophyll, temperature, and abundance of parent cohort as independent factors explained about 80% of the variation in the reproductive success of amphipods. The negative correlation between amphipod recruitment and water temperature indicates that the current climate conditions adversely affect the populations of glacial relict amphipods even in cold‐water lakes of the subarctic zone. Results of this study can be useful in environmental assessments to separate population oscillations connected with density‐dependent mechanisms from human‐mediated changes.     

Identifying biotic drivers of population dynamics in a benthic–pelagic community

Benthic species and communities are linked to pelagic zooplankton through life‐stages encompassing both benthic and pelagic habitats and through a mutual dependency on primary producers as a food source. Many zooplankton taxa contribute to the sedimentary system as benthic eggs. Our main aim was to investigate the nature of the population level biotic interactions between and within these two seemingly independent communities, both dependent on the pelagic primary production, while simultaneously accounting for environmental drivers (salinity, temperature, and oxygen conditions). To this end, we applied multivariate autoregressive state‐space models to long (1966–2007) time series of annual abundance data, comparing models with and without interspecific interactions, and models with and without environmental variables included. We were not able to detect any direct coupling between sediment‐dwelling benthic taxa and pelagic copepods and cladocerans on the annual scale, but the most parsimonious model indicated that interactions within the benthic community are important. There were also positive residual correlations between the copepods and cladocerans potentially reflecting the availability of a shared resource or similar seasonal dependence, whereas both groups tended to correlate negatively with the zoobenthic taxa. The most notable single interaction within the benthic community was a tendency for a negative effect of Limecola balthica on the amphipods Monoporeia affinis and Pontoporeia femorata which can help explain the observed decrease in amphipods due to increased competitive interference.     

Agent‐based modeling of the effects of forest dynamics,selective logging,and fragment size on epiphyte communities

1. Forest canopies play a crucial role in structuring communities of vascular epiphytes by providing substrate for colonization, by locally varying microclimate, and by causing epiphyte mortality due to branch or tree fall. However, as field studies in the three‐dimensional habitat of epiphytes are generally challenging, our understanding of how forest structure and dynamics influence the structure and dynamics of epiphyte communities is scarce.
2. Mechanistic models can improve our understanding of epiphyte community dynamics. We present such a model that couples dispersal, growth, and mortality of individual epiphytes with substrate dynamics, obtained from a three‐dimensional functional–structural forest model, allowing the study of forest–epiphyte interactions. After validating the epiphyte model with independent field data, we performed several theoretical simulation experiments to assess how (a) differences in natural forest dynamics, (b) selective logging, and (c) forest fragmentation could influence the long‐term dynamics of epiphyte communities.
3. The proportion of arboreal substrate occupied by epiphytes (i.e., saturation level) was tightly linked with forest dynamics and increased with decreasing forest turnover rates. While species richness was, in general, negatively correlated with forest turnover rates, low species numbers in forests with very‐low‐turnover rates were due to competitive exclusion when epiphyte communities became saturated. Logging had a negative impact on epiphyte communities, potentially leading to a near‐complete extirpation of epiphytes when the simulated target diameters fell below a threshold. Fragment size had no effect on epiphyte abundance and saturation level but correlated positively with species numbers.
4. Synthesis: The presented model is a first step toward studying the dynamic forest–epiphyte interactions in an agent‐based modeling framework. Our study suggests forest dynamics as key factor in controlling epiphyte communities. Thus, both natural and human‐induced changes in forest dynamics, for example, increased mortality rates or the loss of large trees, pose challenges for epiphyte conservation.

     

An open spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density,movement, and population dynamics from line‐transect surveys

The purpose of many wildlife population studies is to estimate density, movement, or demographic parameters. Linking these parameters to covariates, such as habitat features, provides additional ecological insight and can be used to make predictions for management purposes. Line‐transect surveys, combined with distance sampling methods, are often used to estimate density at discrete points in time, whereas capture–recapture methods are used to estimate movement and other demographic parameters. Recently, open population spatial capture–recapture models have been developed, which simultaneously estimate density and demographic parameters, but have been made available only for data collected from a fixed array of detectors and have not incorporated the effects of habitat covariates. We developed a spatial capture–recapture model that can be applied to line‐transect survey data by modeling detection probability in a manner analogous to distance sampling. We extend this model to a) estimate demographic parameters using an open population framework and b) model variation in density and space use as a function of habitat covariates. The model is illustrated using simulated data and aerial line‐transect survey data for North Atlantic right whales in the southeastern United States, which also demonstrates the ability to integrate data from multiple survey platforms and accommodate differences between strata or demographic groups. When individuals detected from line‐transect surveys can be uniquely identified, our model can be used to simultaneously make inference on factors that influence spatial and temporal variation in density, movement, and population dynamics.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Restoration of species‐rich grasslands by transfer of local plant material and its impact on species diversity and genetic variation—Findings of a practical restoration project in southeastern Germany

Restoration of species‐rich grasslands is a key issue of conservation. The transfer of seed‐containing local plant material is a proven technique to restore species‐rich grassland, since it potentially allows to establish genetically variable and locally adapted populations. In our study, we tested how the transfer of local plant material affected the species diversity and composition of restored grasslands and the genetic variation of the typical grassland plant species Knautia arvensis and Plantago lanceolata.For our study, we selected fifteen study sites in southeastern Germany. We analyzed species diversity and composition and used molecular markers to investigate genetic variation within and among populations of the study species from grasslands that served as source sites for restoration and grasslands, which were restored by transfer of green hay and threshed local plant material.The results revealed no significant differences in species diversity and composition between grasslands at source and restoration sites. Levels of genetic variation within populations of the study species Knautia arvensis and Plantago lanceolata were comparable at source and restoration sites and genetic variation among populations at source and their corresponding restoration sites were only marginal different.Our study suggests that the transfer of local plant material is a restoration approach highly suited to preserve the composition of species‐rich grasslands and the natural genetic pattern of typical grassland plant species.     

Long‐term changes in occurrence,relative abundance,and reproductive fitness of bat species in relation to arrival of White‐nose Syndrome in West Virginia,USA

White‐nose syndrome (WNS) is a disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans which has resulted in the deaths of millions of bats across eastern North America. To date, hibernacula counts have been the predominant means of tracking the spread and impact of this disease on bat populations. However, an understanding of the impacts of WNS on demographic parameters outside the winter season is critical to conservation and recovery of bat populations impacted by this disease. We used long‐term monitoring data to examine WNS‐related impacts to summer populations in West Virginia, where WNS has been documented since 2009. Using capture data from 290 mist‐net sites surveyed from 2003 to 2019 on the Monongahela National Forest, we estimated temporal patterns in presence and relative abundance for each bat species. For species that exhibited a population‐level response to WNS, we investigated post‐WNS changes in adult female reproductive state and body mass. Myotis lucifugus (little brown bat), M. septentrionalis (northern long‐eared bat), and Perimyotis subflavus (tri‐colored bat) all showed significant decreases in presence and relative abundance during and following the introduction of WNS, while Eptesicus fuscus (big brown bat) and Lasiurus borealis (eastern red bat) responded positively during the WNS invasion. Probability of being reproductively active was not significantly different for any species, though a shift to earlier reproduction was estimated for E. fuscus and M. septentrionalis. For some species, body mass appeared to be influenced by the WNS invasion, but the response differed by species and reproductive state. Results suggest that continued long‐term monitoring studies, additional research into impacts of this disease on the fitness of WNS survivors, and a focus on providing optimal nonwintering habitat may be valuable strategies for assessing and promoting recovery of WNS‐affected bat populations.