The African savannah elephant population in Kidepo Valley National Park, Uganda: changes in size and structure from 1967 to 2000

The age and sex structure of the elephant population in Kidepo Valley National Park were studied using recognition files. Moreover, population trends were reviewed using past studies. From 1967 to 2000, the elephant population varied between 200 and 500 individuals. Of the minimum number of 374 elephants found to use the Park, 352 were individually identified. Seventy‐nine per cent of these were recorded in 29 families ranging from three to 22 animals with a mean group size of ten. Young animals dominated the population (45% aged 0–9.9 years), while 11% were 10–14.9 years of age and only 18% over 25 years of age. Overall, males constituted 45% of the population, but only 32% of the individuals in the 10–14.9‐year age class were males. Individuals ≥15 years of age displayed a skewed sex ratio of 1 : 1.4 in favour of females. The extent of skew was greatest among mature animals (≥25 years of age), which had four times as many females as males. The skewed age structure in the year 2000 caused by poaching and drought, led to a significant difference between the age distribution in 1970 and 2000. Recent counts suggest that the Kidepo elephant population may be increasing.     

Resource variability, aggregation and direct density dependence in an open context: the local regulation of an African elephant population

1. An emerging perspective in the study of density dependence is the importance of the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of resources. Although this is well understood in temperate ungulates, few studies have been conducted in tropical environments where both food and water are limiting resources. 2. We studied the regulation of one of the world's largest elephant populations in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. The study period started in 1986 when the population was released from culling. Using census data we investigated changes in elephant abundance with respect to rainfall and density across the entire park and across waterholes. 3. The population more than doubled since culling stopped. The population increased continuously during the first 6 years, and then fluctuated widely at about 30,000 individuals. Immigration processes must have been involved in the increase of the population size. 4. Population growth rates were negatively related to previous population density by a convex relationship, and negatively related to the ratio of previous population density on annual rainfall by a linear relationship. However, only this latter model (i.e. assuming a fluctuating carrying capacity related to annual rainfall) produced realistic dynamics. Overall, population decreased during dry years when the elephant density was high. 5. During dry years there were fewer waterholes retaining water during the dry season and consequently elephant numbers at waterholes increased, while their aggregation level across waterholes decreased. On the long-run elephant numbers increased only at the less crowded waterholes. 6. We suggest that the interaction between population size and the available foraging range determined by the number of active waterholes during the dry season controls the park population. 7. Our results emphasize the need to understand how key-resource areas cause resource-based aggregation, which ultimately influences the strength of density dependence. More specifically, this study suggests that climate variability strongly affects local elephant population dynamics through changes in surface-water availability. Finally, as dispersal is likely to be an important driver of the dynamics of this population, our results support views that a metapopulation framework should be endorsed for elephant management in open contexts.     

The savanna ecology of Kidepo Valley National Park, Uganda

Censuses indicated similar elephant densities in some habitats to those in certain other East African Parks where woodland has been almost completely destroyed. Giraffe densities were low. Herd structure indicated a healthy elephant population; but poor recruitment in the giraffe population. Policy for the national parks is discussed. It is suggested that it is not in the interests of Uganda or science to allow Kidepo Valley Park to become dominated by elephant in the same way as Kabalega and Rwenzori Park. Evidence that this is happening under current elephant use is strong. Cropping of two thirds of the elephant in the Narus valley is recommended. The revenue from cropping should be used for essential fire control measures and for a monitoring programme to ascertain optimum elephant numbers. Elephant should not be cropped in the absence of fire control.     

Unmarked individuals in mark–recapture studies: Comparisons of marked and unmarked southern elephant seals at Marion Island

The presence of unmarked individuals is common in mark–recapture study populations; however, their origin and significance in terms of population dynamics remain poorly understood. At Marion Island, southern Indian Ocean, where virtually all southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina pups born annually (1983–2008) were marked in a long‐term mark–resight study, large numbers of unmarked seals occur. Unmarked seals originate either from marker (tag) loss or from immigration. We aimed to identify patterns in the occurrence of marked and unmarked individuals that will allude to the possible origin and significance of the untagged component of the population, predicting that tag loss will add untagged seals to mainly adult age categories whereas migrating untagged individuals will be mostly juveniles. We fitted a generalized linear model using the factors month, year and age‐class to explain the relative abundance of untagged seals (tag ratio) from 1997 to 2009. Site usage of untagged seals relative to tagged seals was assessed using a binomial test. Untagged seals, predominantly juveniles, were present in the highest proportions relative to tagged seals during the winter haulout (tagged seals/total seals less than 0.3) and the lowest proportion (approximately 0.5) during the female breeding haulout, increasing in relative abundance from 1997 to 2009. Untagged seals were distributed evenly across suitable haulout sites while tagged seals displayed high local site fidelity and occurred in greater numbers at or near large breeding beaches. Untagged seals are considered to be mostly migrant seals that disperse from other islands within the southern Indian Ocean and haul out at Marion Island during non‐breeding haulouts in particular. Some of these seals immigrate to the breeding population, which can be a key component of the local population dynamics. We emphasize the need for mark–recapture studies to evaluate the role of the unmarked component of a population, thereby inducing a more confident estimation of demographic parameters from the marked sample.     

Elephant survival,rainfall and the confounding effects of water provision and fences

Elephant are increasing across some areas of Africa leading to concerns that they may reduce woodlands through their feeding. Droughts may help limit elephant numbers, but they are generally both episodic and local. To explore more general impacts of rainfall, we examine how its annual variation influences elephant survival across ten sites. These sites span an almost coast-to-coast transect of southern Africa that holds the majority of the ~500,000 remaining savanna elephants. Elephants born in high rainfall years survive better than elephants born in low rainfall years. The relationship is generally weak, except at the two fenced sites, where rainfall greatly influenced juvenile survival. In these two sites, there are also extensive networks of artificial water. Rainfall likely affects elephant survival through its influence on food. The provision of artificial water opens new areas for elephants in the dry season, while fencing restricts their movements in the wet season. We conclude that the combination of these factors makes elephant survival more susceptible to reductions in rainfall. As a result, elephants living in enclosed reserves may be the first populations to feel the impacts of global warming which will decrease average rainfall and increase the frequency of droughts. A way to prevent these elephants from damaging the vegetation within these enclosed parks is for managers to reduce artificial water sources or, whenever practical, to remove fences.     

THE GROWTH AND NUTRITION OF THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT

In order to gain information on the growth and nutrition of two populations of elephants in Murchison Falls National Park, Uganda, their urinary excretions of hydroxyproline peptides (HP) were compared. Animals from the “south bank” population had a consistently higher level of excretion than corresponding animals from the “north bank” population. This indicated a faster rate of growth and a superior nutritional status in “south bank” animals at the time of sampling. The HP output from both populations was found to run parallel to the seasonal variation in rainfall and vegetation growth. Sampling from each population was carried out at a different time of the year and evidence is presented to show that the differences in the rate of growth are a direct result of this. It is concluded that any primary differences between the populations are small enough to be obliterated by seasonal changes. The effect of the seasons on the growth of the elephant is therefore examined in more detail, and a direct influence on collagen metabolism is discussed.     

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short‐term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond‐breeding amphibians.     

The ranging behaviour of a large sexually dimorphic herbivore in response to seasonal and annual environmental variation

The allometric relationships of body size play a principle role in determining how large herbivores respond to the marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the savanna biome. Using location data collected over an 8‐year period from five distinct study sites, we investigated the influence of environmental variation (using phenological and rainfall data) on the ranging behaviour of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), a species that exhibits pronounced sexual dimorphism. Both sexes expanded their annual ranges during years of high rainfall and contracted their ranges during periods of resource scarcity, concurring with the hypothesis that abiotic factors dictate the distribution of large generalist herbivores at the landscape scale. However, female elephant did not exhibit the same consistent response to rainfall at the seasonal scale. Furthermore, male elephant demonstrated a reduction in their daily displacement distances during the dry winter season, and altered their movement rates on the basis of seasonal rainfall. These results suggest that male elephant are able to consistently adapt their movement behaviour according to forage quality and abundance. Smaller‐bodied female elephant on the other hand, are unlikely to exhibit the same flexibility in their ranging behaviour because of their higher relative nutritional demands, lower tolerance to fibrous forage and the social and energetic constraints of group living with juveniles. Our study highlights the major role that body size and sociality plays in the decision making of sexually dimorphic herbivores. These differences can have important implications for effective conservation and management, particularly with regard to demographic (e.g. survival) and ecological (e.g. habitat use) factors.     

Ranging behaviour of Uganda’s elephants

Elephant populations are in decline across the African continent, but recent aerial surveys show that populations in Uganda are increasing. However, threats such as poaching and habitat disturbance remain. Having a comprehensive knowledge of the ranging behaviour of Ugandan elephants is crucial to understanding where critical habitat for the species occurs. We investigated various aspects of ranging behaviour of 45 radio-collared elephants (Loxodonta africana) in three areas—Queen Elizabeth Protected Area (QEPA), Murchison Falls (MFPA) Protected Area and Kidepo Valley (KVCA) Conservation Area. We also set Ugandan analyses in a continental context by comparison with home ranges reported in published literature. Elephants within KVCA had larger core ranges than elephants in QEPA or MFPA. Wet season ranges in KVCA were much larger than dry season ranges. The most important core areas in all three national parks were centred around water resources. Home range size was negatively correlated with net primary productivity (NPP) at Ugandan (N = 39 individuals) and continental (N = 17 sites) scales. This study indicates that, at a local scale, factors such as water source location are important in shaping elephant ranging behaviour. At larger scales, factors such as NPP are good predictors of elephant home range size.     

Relative roles of density and rainfall on the short-term regulation of Mediterraneanwood mouse <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus sylvaticus</Emphasis> populations

This study aims to quantify the relative effects of density-dependent (feedback structure) and density-independent climatic factors (rainfall) in regulating the short-term population dynamics of wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus Linnaeus, 1758 in three Mediterranean forest plots. Rainfall and density explained additively 62% of variation in population growth rates (38 and 24%, respectively), with no differences among study plots. Population growth rate was positive during autumn–winter and negative during spring–summer during a 2.5-year period. Population rate of change was negatively affected by wood mouse density during the normal breeding season of Mediterranean mice (autumn–winter) but not outside it. Growth rate was positively affected by the cumulative amount of rainfall three months before the normal breeding season, but not during it. Female breeding activity and recruitment did not differ among plots, and was not affected by density or rainfall. However, recruitment was positively affected by density and, marginally, by rainfall. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition (density-dependence) and food availability (rainfall) are equally important factors driving wood mouse population dynamics in Mediterranean forests. Mechanisms underlying density-dependence during the breeding season seemed to be based on food-mediated survival rather than on behaviourally-mediated reproduction. Taken together, these results indicate a high sensitivity of marginal Mediterranean wood mouse populations to the expected climate changes in the Mediterranean region.     

Local population dynamics and the impact of scale and isolation: a study on different little owl populations

The understanding of how variation of demographic rates translates into variation of population growth is a central aim in population ecology. Besides stochastic and deterministic factors, the spatial extent and the isolation of a local population may have an impact on the contribution of the different demographic components. Using long-term demographic data we performed retrospective population analyses of four little owl ( Athene noctua ) populations with differential spatial extent and degree of isolation to assess the contribution of demographic rates to the variation of the growth rate (λ) of each local population and to the difference of λ among populations. In all populations variation of fecundity contributed least to variation of λ, and variation of adult survival contributed most to variation of λ in three of four populations. Between population comparisons revealed that differences mainly stem from differences of immigration and juvenile local survival. The relative importance of immigration to λ tended to decrease with increasing spatial extent and isolation of the local populations. None of the four local populations was self-sustainable. Because the local populations export and import individuals, they can be considered as open recruitment systems in which part of the recruited breeding birds are not produced locally. The spatial extent and the degree of isolation of a local population have an impact on local population dynamics; hence these factors need to be considered in studies about local population dynamics and for deriving conservation measures.     

A genome‐wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change

Terrestrial‐breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome‐wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range‐edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.     

Panmictic population structure in the hooded seal (Cystophora cristata)

Two putative populations of hooded seals (Cystophora cristata) occur in the North Atlantic. The Greenland Sea population pup and breed on the pack ice near Jan Mayen ('West Ice') while the Northwest Atlantic population is thought to pup in the Davis Strait, in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (the 'Gulf'), and off southern Labrador or northeast Newfoundland (the 'Front'). We used microsatellite profiling of 300 individuals at 13 loci and mitochondrial DNA sequencing of the control region of 123 individuals to test for genetic differentiation between these four breeding herds. We found no significant genetic differences between breeding areas, nor evidence for cryptic nor higher level genetic structure in this species. The Greenland Sea breeding herd was genetically most distant from the Northwest Atlantic breeding areas; however, the differences were statistically nonsignificant. Our data therefore suggest that the world's hooded seals comprise a single panmictic genetic population.     

Fluctuations in population composition dampen the impact of phenotypic plasticity on trait dynamics in superb fairy-wrens

1. In structured populations, phenotypic change can result from changes throughout an individual's lifetime (phenotypic plasticity, age-related changes), selection and changes in population composition (environment- or density-driven fluctuations in age-structure). 2. The contribution of population dynamics to phenotypic change has often been ignored. However, for understanding trait dynamics, it is important to identify both the individual- and population-level mechanisms responsible for trait change, because they potentially reinforce or counteract each other. 3. We use 22 years of field data to investigate the dynamics of a sexually selected phenological trait, the timing of nuptial moult in superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus. 4. We show that trait expression is both climate- and age-dependent, but that phenotypic plasticity in response to climate variability also varies with age. Old males can acquire nuptial plumage very early after high rainfall, but 1- to 2-year-olds cannot. However, males of all ages that defer moult to later in the year acquire nuptial plumage earlier when conditions are warmer. 5. The underlying mechanism appears to be that old males may risk moulting in the most challenging period of the year: in autumn, when drought restricts food abundance and during the cold winter. By contrast, young males always moult during the spring transition to benign - warmer and generally wetter - conditions. Temperature changes dominate this transition that heralds the breeding season, thereby causing both young and late-moulting older birds to be temperature sensitive. 6. Climate and age also affect trait dynamics via a population dynamical pathway. The same high rainfall that triggers early moulting in old males concurrently increases offspring recruitment and thereby reduces the average age of males in the population. Consequently, effects of rainfall on trait dynamics through phenotypic plasticity of old males are dampened by synchronous rejuvenation of the age-structure. 7. A long-term trend towards drier environments prompted phenotypic change because of plasticity, but this was masked by climate-driven demographic change (causing apparent stasis). This suggests a novel explanation for why trait change may fail to reflect the observed pattern of directional selection or phenotypic plasticity.     

DEMOGRAPHY AND BREEDING BIOLOGY OF A SMALL,LOCALIZED POPULATION OF SOUTHERN ELEPHANT SEALS (MIROUNGA LEONINA)

Southern elephant seals have been studied in depth in most of their breeding range. One notable exception is the Falkland Islands population. We present data on demography and breeding biology of elephant seals of Sea Lion Island, the main breeding site of this species in the Falklands. Sea Lion Island shelters a small, localized population of southern elephant seals (516 breeding females in 1995 and 518 in 1996). Comparison with the few available census data collected prior to our study suggests that the population has been stable in the short term (1989-1996). Females produced pups at maximum rate and pup mortality was low (2.13%). Breeding sex ratio was strongly unbalanced, with about 14 females per breeding male and 47 females per harem-holding male at peak haul-out. Survival rate between breeding seasons was 67.4% for females and 50% for males. Timing of the breeding season was very similar to that recorded in other populations and was in accordance with clinal variation with latitude. Sex ratio at birth was balanced, and no significant weight dimorphism at weaning between sexes was detected (males: 135.4 kg; females: 132.0 kg). Weaning weight was correlated with size class of the mother.     

Open ground individuals and population structure in Drosophila subobscura Collin

The distribution of Drosophila subobscura adults within, and their movement through, open ground habitats has been investigated, along with the status of such individuals within populations as a whole. Movement occurs between open ground and woodland, to some extent as a result of passive transport by air currents, but flies can remain in open ground for at least several days at a time. There are no detectable differences in either the reproductive age-structure or the body-size distributions of flies collected from woodland and open ground habitats, although a significantly higher proportion of females are found in open ground than in woodland. The large number of gravid females in open ground provide the potential for breeding there, but circumstantial evidence suggests that this is unlikely to occur. Rather, their presence appears to reflect the foraging strategy adopted by females in response to their high nutritional requirements. The flux of flies through open ground between woodlands suggests that previous estimates of the genetically-important parameter, effective population size, have been seriously underestimated for natural D. subobscura populations.     

Predicting the annual effective size of livestock populations

Effective population size (Ne) is an important parameter determining the genetic structure of small populations. In natural populations, the number of adults (N) is usually known and Ne can be estimated on the basis of an assumed ratio Ne/N, usually found to be close to 0.5. In farm animal populations, apart from using pedigrees or genetic marker information, Ne can be estimated from the number N of breeding animals, and a value of 1 is commonly assumed for the ratio Ne/N. The purpose of this paper is to show the relation between effective population size and breeding herd size in livestock species. With overlapping generations, Ne can be predicted knowing the number of individuals entering the population per generation and the variance of family size, the latter being directly related to the survival pattern (or replacement policy) in the breeding herd. Assuming an ideal survivorship leading to a geometric age distribution, it can be shown that the number of breeding animals tends to overestimate effective size, particularly in early-maturing species. The ratio of annual effective size to the number of breeding animals is shown to be equal to [1 + (a- 1)(1 - s)]2/(1 - s2), where a is the age at first offspring and s is the survival rate (including culling) of the parents between successive births. This expression shows to what extent inbreeding may be determined by demography or culling policy independently of the actual herd size. In many situations a fast replacement or an early culling will increase annual effective size. Consequences for the management of small populations are discussed.     

Population status, trends and a re-examination of the hypotheses explaining the recent declines of the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina

1. Between the 1950s and 1990s the southern elephant seal Mirounga leonina underwent large decreases in population size throughout most of its breeding range in the Southern Ocean. While current population estimates suggest a recent recovery, some breeding populations have continued to decrease in recent years (Macquarie and Marion Islands), others have either remained stable (South Georgia, Kerguelen and Heard Island) or have increased (Peninsula Valdés, Argentina). 2. Intrinsic hypotheses for patterns of regional decline include factors that are affected by density-dependent mechanisms: (i) paucity of males, (ii) population ‘overshoot’ and (iii) pandemic disease. Extrinsic hypotheses include (iv) predation, (v) competition with fisheries concerns, (vi) interspecific competition, (vii) environmental change and (viii) human disturbance. Of the eight hypotheses proposed and examined here, we conclude that three can be discounted (i, v, viii), three are unlikely, but may require more testing (ii, iii, iv) and two are plausible (vi, vii). 3. The interspecific competition hypothesis is difficult to test because it requires the simultaneous monitoring of species that overlap directly with elephant seals, many of which have not been identified or little is known. However, an analysis of the relationship between log variance and log abundance (Taylor's power law) for populations of southern and northern elephant seals suggests that interspecific competition is not a significant factor in the decline of the southern elephant seal. 4. The hypothesis that decreases in southern elephant seal populations between the 1950s and 1990s were caused by the environmental change is the easiest to test and most plausible of the hypotheses. We propose a framework by which to test this hypothesis to determine how food availability affects individual survival.     

Effects of poaching on bull mating success in a free ranging African elephant (Loxodonta africana) population in Tarangire National Park, Tanzania

Poaching and habitat encroachment for human settlement are the two major factors that caused contraction of elephant populations in Africa. While the effects of poaching on many aspects of elephant social systems have been studied, the impacts on mating patterns are not yet understood and such information is still lacking in most African countries. In this study, we used elephant specific-microsatellite DNA to generate genotypes from 86 elephant samples (84 fresh faeces and two tissue samples) from Tarangire National Park (TNP), Tanzania to assess the mating success of individual males. We also tested whether the oldest bulls are more likely to sire most of the offspring in a severely poached population. Genetic paternity analysis was compared to behavioural observations of matings collected over a 3-year period (1998–2001) to determine the success of bull mating strategy. The genotypes of 26 infants, their known mothers and 10 out of 43 potential breeding bulls in TNP were used to assign 31% of the offspring at 80% confidence level to their potential fathers with simulation assuming that 23% (10/43) of the breeding males were sampled. Mating success of individual bull based on both behavioural and genetic data showed that the oldest remaining bulls performed most of the matings and fathered the majority of infants. We speculate that the lifetime fitness of bulls that have survived poaching may be elevated because their period of dominance increases.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.