松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区分析

松墨天牛MonochamusalternatusHope分布在亚洲东部,是松材线虫Bursaphelenchusxylophilus(SteinerandBuhrer)在亚洲最有效的昆虫媒介,同时也是重要的蛀干害虫。利用CLIMEX模型分析松墨天牛分布区的气候限制因子,并在全球范围预测它的潜在分布区。模型分析结果表明,温度和降水是松墨天牛分布区的主要气候限制因子。温度在30°N以北地区和30°S以南地区主要表现为冷胁迫,在非洲中部、南亚和澳大利亚北部表现为热胁迫。有效积温不足可能是限制松墨天牛向北扩散的主要原因。降水在中国西北地区、非洲中北部、澳大利亚中部和西部与美国西部主要表现为干胁迫。降水量对分布区范围影响不大。预测结果表明,松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区远远大于实际分布范围。松墨天牛在东半球的潜在分布区包括亚洲东部和南部地区、地中海沿岸、非洲的中部和南部以及澳大利亚的东部和南部,在亚洲热带的潜在分布区1年3代,地中海地区1年1代,非洲1年2～3代,在澳大利亚主要1年1代。松墨天牛在西半球的潜在分布区主要集中在美国南部和东部沿海地区,中美洲以及南美洲的广大地区,美国主要1年1代,中美洲1年2～3代,南美洲主要1年2代。     

中国三种濒危葡萄属(Vitis L.)植物的地理分布模拟

收集云南葡萄、庐山葡萄和温州葡萄3个濒危种的地理分布资料,利用地理信息系统软件ArcGIS绘制其现状分布图,在分布信息数据矢量化的基础上研究了影响其分布的主要环境因子,同时采用BIOCLIM模型对3种野葡萄的生态位进行了模拟,预测了其在当前和未来的可能潜在分布区。结果表明:3种野葡萄主要集中分布于我国的长江以南地区,江西北部和浙江东南部分别是庐山葡萄和温州葡萄最为集中的地区,云南葡萄分布比较分散;最干季的均温、年均温差和年降雨量是影响云南葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;年均温、降雨量的季节性变化、最湿季均温和平均月温差是影响庐山葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;极端最低温、年降雨量、最干月降雨量是影响温州葡萄地理分布的主要环境因子;3种野葡萄当前的潜在分布区与实际分布区有很好的一致性,说明BIOCLIM模型模拟的精确度较高,3种野葡萄当前和未来可能潜在分布中心依然位于我国的南部地区,在未来气候变化情景下,3种野葡萄适宜区面积变化范围不明显,但适宜区向北部移动。     

中国硬叶兜兰地理分布格局及其潜在分布区预测

该研究基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS技术,采用实地调查为主结合标本、文献查阅的方法得到全国107个硬叶兜兰有效分布点,并筛选出13个因子,从生态位模型角度对其潜在地理分布进行预测,并采用AUC值对模型进行准确性检验,用ArcGIS 10.6软件进行可视化处理,分析硬叶兜兰潜在分布区并计算面积;采用刀切法、预测因子贡献率和响应曲线,分析影响硬叶兜兰分布的主导因子,为硬叶兜兰的就地保护、迁地保护、野外回归和开发利用提供理论区划依据。结果表明：(1)硬叶兜兰在全国大尺度上总体呈零散分布,以滇、黔、桂三省(自治区)的喀斯特山地为主要分布区;小尺度上普遍呈现出微地形小居群聚集分布的特点,有64.95%的分布点实际分布面积不超过100 m²。(2)该种潜在分布区预测的构建数据和检验数据AUC值分别为0.992和0.987,其潜在分布区为贵州西南至南部地区、贵州中部地区、云南东南部、广西北部至西北部,其中最适宜区为滇东南、黔西南至桂西北地区,面积约3 912.71 km²。(3)影响硬叶兜兰潜在分布的主导因子及最适范围是顶层土壤质地(壤土)、最干季度降水量(55~85 mm)、年均降水量(1 220~1 480 mm)、碳酸钙含量(2.5%~2.7%),4个主导因子的贡献率分别为30.0%、20.1%、16.2%和7.0%。研究认为,硬叶兜兰被采挖严重,对生境要求严格,结合该种在中国的实际分布情况、生存现状、受威胁状况和潜在分布区预测结果,建议将硬叶兜兰列入国家重点保护植物名录,并通过自然保护区或保护小区等方式加强原生地保护。     

金缕梅科:地理分布、化石历史和起源

本文利用系统发育与地理分布相结合的方法,探讨金缕梅科各属植物的系统位置和分布式样,并结合化石、古地理及古气候等证据,讨论该科的分布中心,可能的起源时间和地点以及现代分布式样形成的原因。研究结果表明：全世界金缕梅科植物共30属144种,间断分布于亚洲西部、东部、东南部,非洲东部、南部,大洋洲的澳大利亚东北部以及中美洲和北美洲的东南部,欧洲和南美洲尚无现代类群分布的记载。它基本上是一个热带和亚热带山地分布的科。通过对该科30个属的系统位置及其分布式样的分析,将金缕梅科属的分布归纳为：A．热带分布类型(18属),包括(1)热带亚洲分布(11属),(2)热带中美洲分布(2属),(3)热带非洲分布(2属),(4)热带大洋洲分布(3属),B．温带分布类型(12属),包括(5)东亚分布(7属),(6)西亚分布(2属),(7)西亚-东亚-北美间断分布(1属),(8)东亚-北美间断分布(1属),(9)北美分布(1属)。东亚区南部到印度支那区北部(即中国长江以南至中南半岛北部地区)是它的现代分布区中心;根据化石证据、原始类型分布和外类群分布分析,提出该科植物起源于劳亚古陆,并曾经有一个很长的白垩纪历史,至少在早白垩纪金缕梅科植物的先驱就已经出现。最后,从地质和气候的变迁等方面探讨了金缕梅科现代分布区形成的原因。     

基于MaxEnt模型预测海南岛海南臭蛙的潜在地理分布

生境分析与预测是受威胁物种有效保护的基础。本研究通过ArcGIS技术平台,利用MaxEnt模型,结合野外调查获得的海南臭蛙(Odorrana hainanensis)66个分布点数据和17个30 m×30 m分辨率的环境变量数据,对该物种在海南岛内的潜在分布区进行预测,并分析其与环境因子之间的关系。结果显示,海南臭蛙的潜在分布区主要位于海拔200~1 200 m的地区,最适宜的海拔范围是600~1 000 m,总分布面积约2 179 km2。海南臭蛙空间分布具有不连续性,其分布区分为三个斑块,尖峰岭所在地为斑块Ⅰ,霸王岭、鹦哥岭和黎母山所在地为斑块Ⅱ,五指山和吊罗山所在地为斑块Ⅲ。适宜生境分析显示,斑块Ⅰ适宜生境面积为218.4 km2,主要分布在尖峰岭中部的三分区、五分区和南部的南崖;斑块Ⅱ适宜生境面积为963.5 km2,主要分布在霸王岭北部的牙琼、南美岭以及鹦哥岭东部的鹦哥嘴、什寒、秀寨岭和黎母山主峰西侧的四分场;斑块Ⅲ适宜生境面积为997.1 km2,主要分布在五指山西部的那罗岭、南部的好定岭和吊罗山中部的度假村、白水岭以及研究区东部的牛上岭。环境变量分析显示,海拔是影响海南臭蛙分布的最主要环境因子,其次是坡度、距水源距离、归一化植被指数(NDVI)和年降水量,温度、湿度和日照对海南臭蛙的分布影响较小。     

国家重点保护野生植物的保护现状及潜在分布区预测分析

野生植物是自然生态系统的重要组成部分,中国是野生植物种类最丰富的国家之一。研究国家重点保护野生植物的分布特征、保护现状以及潜在分布区,对于制定与支持生物多样性保护策略具有重要意义。该研究基于1 032种(隶属于129科315属)国家重点保护野生植物,利用前5%丰富度算法识别其热点地区,并与自然保护区叠加评估其保护成效、确定保护空缺,进而运用MaxEnt模型预测了国家重点保护野生植物的潜在分布区分布与变化趋势。结果表明:(1)中国南部和西南部是国家重点保护野生植物物种丰富度最高的地区,尤其是四川中部、云南南部和东南部、广西北部、广东北部与海南。(2)热点网格的保护成效分析表明,171个(85.50%)热点网格得到了有效保护(含80.50%的物种),29个(14.50%)热点网格未得到自然保护区的保护(含51.20%物种)。(3)通过比较当前与未来气候变化下国家重点保护野生植物的潜在分布区分布,发现未来潜在分布区将向西藏东南部、广西西南部、广东南部以及福建南部等地扩张,而向环四川盆地、云南南部和贵州南部等地缩减。因此,需要加强这些区域生物多样性的动态监测,持续关注气候变化对该区域国家重点保护野生植物的影响。基于该研究所确定的热点网格、保护成效以及潜在分布区的分析结果,可为国家重点保护野生植物多样性优先保护区的确定和保护政策的制定提供有力的数据支持与参考。     

基于最大熵模型的中国兜兰属植物潜在分布模拟

基于已知分布点和20个环境因子,该研究利用MaxEnt模型模拟在现在(1970—2000年)气候条件和2种不同共享经济路径情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP5-8.5)未来(2081—2100年)兜兰属(Paphiopedilum)植物的潜在分布格局,找出影响物种分布的环境因子。结果表明,兜兰属植物的最适宜分布区位于滇东南地区、贵州西南、广西西部、广东南部、海南北部。影响该属植物分布的主要环境因子是年降水量、年温度变化和最干旱季降水量。随着全球变暖,适生区有向北和西北方向扩张的趋势,逐渐往西北亚热带方向延伸。在SSP5-8.5的情景下,高适生区出现大幅度收缩。在未来气候情景下,不同种群的分布区变化规律并不一致,其分布格局响应气候变化的趋势也有所不同,因此该文针对分布区变化趋势不同的物种提出了不同的保护策略。     

西藏南部及其邻近地区沫蝉总科(半翅目)昆虫的动物地理学研究

在对西藏南部及其邻近地区沫蝉总科(半翅目)昆虫区系开展分类鉴定及分布资料整理的基础上,根据特有种及部分单系群的分布,提出了西藏南部及其邻近地区的一个特有生物地理分布区,该特有分布区包括西藏南部(日喀则、贡嘎、吉隆、聂拉木、亚东、错那)及东南部(墨脱、林芝、波密、察隅)、云南西部、中部及北部(保山、昆明一带以北)、四川南部及西南部、印度东北部(阿萨姆、大吉岭、西隆等)、尼泊尔、锡金及缅甸北部。根据主要属级阶元分布格局的分析,提出了有关西藏沫蝉总科昆虫的3种主要分布型,即印度北部、西藏南部—华南分布型,印度北部、西藏南部—马来亚分布型和东亚分布型。区系分析表明,西藏南部地区的沫蝉以东洋种类占明显优势,约占所有种类的93％,古北种类仅占7％;区系中特有种类丰富,特有现象十分明显,特有种类约占所有种类的61．4％;除特有种类外,该地区还具有属于冈瓦那古陆起源的旧热带区系成分及属于劳亚大陆起源的北温带区系成分。文章还对以上特有分布区及分布型的形成做了简要讨论。     

全球入侵物种马铃薯块茎蛾生态位转移及适生区扩展

马铃薯块茎蛾是一种全球性检疫害虫,也是马铃薯的主要害虫,对其进行早期预警和检测非常重要。本研究从3个维度,即原产地南美洲与整个入侵地(以除南美洲以外的所有分布地为整体)之间、原产地南美洲与5个入侵大洲(北美洲、大洋洲、亚洲、非洲和欧洲)之间、原产地南美洲与入侵地中国之间的气候生态位变化,分析了马铃薯块茎蛾在入侵期间的气候生态位保守性,并构建了该害虫在当前和未来气候情景下在其原产地和入侵地(中国)的生态位模型。结果表明：该害虫的气候生态位在上述地区均发生了不同程度的扩张,说明该害虫在入侵过程中能适应新的入侵地环境。马铃薯块茎蛾的适生区几乎遍布整个南美州;在中国,其适生区主要集中在山东、河北、天津、北京、河南、湖北、云南、贵州、四川、海南、广西北部、湖南南部、安徽、广东、江苏、山西和陕西的南部,随着温室气体排放浓度增加,全球气温升高,其适生区将在低纬度地区减少,逐渐向高纬度地区扩展,具体表现为：北部向辽宁、吉林、内蒙古东南部扩展,西部向四川及青藏高原东南部延伸,而云贵高原东南部、海南岛及长江以南等地区的适生区逐渐减少。与当前气候条件相比,未来气候条件下我国马铃薯块茎蛾适生区总面积呈增加趋势...     

我国大陆黄檗潜在分布区及分布适宜性评价

黄檗为我国国家二级重点保护野生植物,多散生于阔叶林中,数量稀少,近年来,无论是从国家层面,还是地方政府层面都采取了一系列保护措施,人为破坏大大减少,然而其种群数量仍没有显著增加,拟从生态学的角度分析我国黄檗的潜在分布区,并进行了适宜性评价,为我国野生黄檗种群的就地保护和迁地保护提供技术支撑。通过实地调查和文献资料整理,获得69个包括准确经纬度信息的分布点,同时在世界气候数据库(World-Clim)中下载中国大陆的3个地形变量(alt、slo、asp),5个土壤变量(grav、pH、radi、rub、oc)和19个生物气候变量(bio1—bio19),利用多重共线性分析来检验环境因子之间的相关性,剔除出部分相关性高的环境因子,最终得到包括6个气候变量(bio1、bio3、bio4、bio12、bio15、prec1)、3个地形变量(alt、asp、slo)及5个土壤变量(grav、pH、radi、rub、oc)的14个环境因子作为环境变量,进而应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析功能,预测了黄檗在我国的潜在分布区,并评价分布区的适宜等级;分析了影响黄檗分布和适生性的关键因子及其适生区间。1)黄檗潜在分布区主要集中在我国东北地区和京津冀大部分区域,以及河南北部、内蒙古东南部等区域,黄檗潜在分布区总面积为117.51万km~2,占全国总面积的12.27%,其中高度适宜分布区面积为189400 km~2,占全国总面积的1.97%,主要包括黑龙江中东部,吉林大部分区域,辽宁东南部和北京大部分区域。2)温度季节性变化的标准差(35.7%)、年均降水量(28%)、坡度(6.5%)、年均温(6.7%)和有机碳含量(5.8%)是影响黄檗分布的5个最主要的环境因子,总的贡献率为82.7%。温度季节性变化标准差在14000—16000范围内,年均降水量在600—800 mm范围内,坡度在2°—8°范围内,年均温在1—7℃范围内,土壤有机碳含量在25—65 g/kg范围内为黄檗适宜分布的环境因子区间。我国野生黄檗分布还远远没有达到其潜在的分布范围,山东、山西、河南、内蒙古等目前资料显示分布并不广泛的省份也是进行野生黄檗迁地保护和人工种植的可选区域。对影响黄檗分布和适生性的关键因子进行分析后表明,温度季节性变化标准差越大其适生程度越高(14000—16000),说明黄檗对于温度的承受范围较大;年均降水量处于700 mm左右其适生程度最高,说明黄檗对于水分要求为中等水平;坡度为2°—8°范围内野生黄檗的适生程度最高,说明黄檗多分布在缓坡地带,年均温在4℃其适生程度最高;土壤有机碳含量在50 g/kg左右其适生程度最高。     

Origin,Differentiation, and Geographic Distribution of the Chenopodiaceae

Numbers of species and genera,endemic genera,extant primitive genera,relationship and distribution patterns of presently living Chenopodiaceae(two subfamilies,12 tribes,and 118 genera)are analyzed and compared for eight distributional areas,namely central Asia,Europe,the Mediterranean region,Africa,North America,South America, Australia and East Asia． The Central Asia,where the number of genera and diversity of taxa are greater than in other areas,appears to be the center of distribution of extant Chenopodiaceae．North America and Australia are two secondary centers of distribution． Eurasia has 11 tribes out of the 12,a total of 70 genera of extant chenopodiaceous plants,and it contains the most primitive genera of every tribe． Archiatriplex of Atripliceae,Hablitzia of Hablitzeae,Corispermum of Corispermeae,Camphorosma of Camphorosmaea,Kalidium of Salicornieae,Polecnemum of Polycnemeae,Alexandra of Suaedeae,and Nanophyton of Salsoleae,are all found in Eurasia,The Beteae is an Eurasian endemic tribe,demonstrating the antiquity of the Chenopodiaceae flora of Eurasia．Hence,Eurasia is likely the place of origin of chenopodiaceous plants． The presence of chenopodiaceous plants is correlated with an arid climate．During the Cretaceous Period,most places of the continent of Eurasia were occupied by the ancient precursor to the Mediterranean,the Tethys Sea．At that time the area of the Tethys Sea had a dry and warm climate．Therefore,primitive Chenopodiaceae were likely present on the beaches of this ancient land．This arid climatic condition resulted in differentiation of the tribes Chenopodieae,Atripliceae,Comphorosmeae,Salicornieae,etc．,the main primitive tribes of the subfamily Cyclolobeae. Then following continental drift and the Laurasian and Gondwanan disintegration, the Chenopodiaceae were brought to every continent to propagate and develop, and experience the vicissitudes of climates, forming the main characteristics and distribution patterns of recent continental floras. The tribes Atripliceae, Chenopodieae, Camphorosmeae, and Salicornieae of recent Chenopodiaceae in Eurasia, North America, South America, southern Africa, and Australia all became strongly differentiated. However, Australia and South America, have no genera of Spirolobeae except for a few maritime Suaeda species. The Salsoleae and Suaedeae have not arrived in Australia and South America, which indicates that the subfamily Spirolobeae developed in Eurasia after Australia separated from the ancient South America-Africa continent, and South America had left Africa. The endemic tribe of North America, the tribe Sarcobateae, has a origin different from the tribes Salsoleae and Suaedeae of the subfamily Spirolobeae. Sarcobateae flowers diverged into unisexuality and absence of bractlets. Clearly they originated in North America after North America had left the Eurasian continent. North America and southern Africa have a few species of Salsola, but none of them have become very much differentiated or developed, so they must have arrived through overland migration across ancient continental connections. India has no southern African Chenopodiaceae floristic components except for a few maritime taxa, which shows that when the Indian subcontinent left Africa in the Triassic period, the Chenopodiaceae had not yet developed in Africa. Therefore, the early Cretaceous Period about 120 million years ago, when the ancient Gondwanan and Laurasian continents disintegrated, could have been the time of origin of Chenopodiaceae plants.The Chinese flora of Chenopodiaceae is a part of Chenopodiaceae flora of central Asia. Cornulaca alaschnica was discovered from Gansu, China, showing that the Chinese Chenopodiaceae flora certainly has contact with the Mediterranean Chenopodiaceae flora. The contact of southeastern China with the Australia Chenopodiaceae flora, however, is very weak.     

藜科植物的起源、分化和地理分布

全球藜科植物共约130属1500余种,广泛分布于欧亚大陆、南北美洲、非洲和大洋洲的半干旱及盐碱地区。它基本上是一个温带科,对亚热带和寒温带也有一定的适应性。本文分析了该科包含的1l族的系统位置和分布式样,以及各个属的分布区,提出中亚区是现存藜科植物的分布中心,原始的藜科植物在古地中海的东岸即华夏陆台(或中国的西南部)发生,然后向干旱的古地中海沿岸迁移、分化,产生了环胚亚科主要族的原始类群;起源的时间可能在白垩纪初,冈瓦纳古陆和劳亚古陆进一步解体的时期。文章对其迁移途径及现代分布式样形成的原因进行了讨论。     

基于MaxEnt模型的入侵植物白花鬼针草的分布预测及适生性分析

【背景】白花鬼针草为农区恶性杂草,原产于美洲,现已广泛分布于世界热带及亚热带地区,但其在全球和中国的适生区域及适生等级还不明确。【方法】利用MaxEnt生态位模型对白花鬼针草在全球以及中国的潜在适生区进行预测。【结果】白花鬼针草在全球的分布更多受到温度因素的影响。白花鬼针草的适生区主要集中在北半球和南半球15°~30°之间的热带和亚热带地区。其中,北美南部、南美中南部、非洲南部、东南亚北部以及大洋洲中南部沿海地区为白花鬼针草中、高度适生区。白花鬼针草在中国的适生区主要位于广东、广西、海南、云南、福建、台湾。到2070年,白花鬼针草在全球的适生区面积与当前相似,但在中国的适生区有所增大。【结论】白花鬼针草在我国有进一步扩张的风险。     

On the Distribution and Origin of Salix in the World

1. The distribution of Salix species among the continents. There are about 526 species of Salix in the world, most of which are distributed in the Northern Hemisphere with only a few species in the Southern Hemisphere. In Asia, there are about 375 species, making up 71.29 percent of the total in the world, including 328 endemics; in Europe, about 114 species, 21.67 percent with 73 endemics; in North America, about 91 species, 17.3 percent with 71 endemics; in Africa, about 8 species, 1.5 percent, with 6 endemics. Only one species occurs in South America. Asia, Europe and North America have 8 species in common (excluding 4 cultivated species). There are 34 common species between Asia and Europe, 14 both between Europe and North America and between Asia and North America, 2 between Asia and Africa. Acording to the Continental Drift Theory, the natural circumstances which promoted speciation and protected newly originated and old species were created by the orogenic movement of the Himalayas in the middle and late Tertiary. Besides, the air temperature was a little higher in Asia than in Europe and North America (except its west part) and the dominant glaciers were mountainous in Asia during the glacial epoch in the Quaternary Period. Then willows of Europe moved southwards to Asia. During the interglacial period they moved in opposite direction. Such a to-and-fro willow migration between Asia and Europe and between and North America occurred so often that it resulted in the diversity of willow species in Asia. Those species of willows common among the continents belong to the Arctic flora. 2. The multistaminal willows are of the primitive group in Salix. Asia has 28 species of multistaminal willows, but Europe has only one which is also found in Asia. These 28 species are divided into two groups, “northern type” and “southern type”, according to morphology of the ovary. The boundary between the two forms in distribution is at 40°N. The multistaminal willows from south Asia, Africa and South America are very similar to each other and may have mutually communicated between these continents in the Middle or Late Cretaceous Period. The southern type willows in south Asia are similar to the North American multistaminal willows but a few species. The Asian southern type willows spreaded all over the continents of Europe, Asia and North America through the communication between them before the Quaternany Period. Nevertheless, it is possible that the willows growing in North America immigranted through the middle America from South America. The Asian northern type multistaminal willows may have originated during the ice period. The multistaminal willows are more closed to populars in features of sexual organs. They are more primitive than the willows with 1-3 stamens and the most primitive ones in the genus. 3. The center of origin and development of willows Based on the above discussion it is reasonable to say that the region between 20°-40°N in East Asia is the center of the origin and differentiation of multistaminal willows. It covers Southern and Southwestern China and northern Indo-China Pennisula.     

Assessment of the global potential distribution of the predatory land planarian Artioposthia triangulata (Dendy) (Tricladida: Terricola) from ecoclimatic data

Abstract

Artioposthia triangulata was originally described from New Zealand in 1895 but was subsequently found to have spread to Northern Ireland in 1963 and Scotland and England in 1965. It is now widespread in both Ireland and Scotland, where it has been shown to reduce earthworm numbers to below detectable levels. Ecoclimatic data were used in the computer program CLIMEX to estimate the potential spread of A. triangulata to Europe and the rest of the world. Results indicated it could establish in agricultural land in most of north‐western Europe, and persist in domestic gardens throughout much of central Europe, east and west North America, Australia, southern South America, and South Africa. It is difficult to assess either the extent to which earthworm numbers and diversity would be decreased or how far the effect of their loss to soil structure, nutrient cycling, or wildlife would be detrimental in these areas.     

The spread of the western flower thrips Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande)

Abstract 1 Since the late 1970s, the western flower thrips has spread from its original distribution in western North America to become a major worldwide crop pest. 2 A wide range of data sources have been used to map the original distribution in the U.S.A. and Canada, and the progress of the spread in the U.S.A., Canada, Europe, northern Africa and Australia. 3 The possible reasons for the start of the spread are discussed. The most likely reason is that intensive insecticide use in horticulture in the 1970s and 1980s selected an insecticide resistant strain or strains. These then established in glasshouses across North America and spread from there to Europe, Asia, Africa and Australia. 4 The international spread of the western flower thrips occurred predominantly by the movement of horticultural material, such as cuttings, seedlings and potted plants. Within Europe, an outward spread from the original outbreak in the Netherlands is discernible. The speed of spread was 229 ± 20 km/year. 5 The spread has not been restricted to glasshouses. The western flower thrips has established outdoors in areas with milder winters; for example, across the southern U.S.A., southern Europe and Australia. It also overwinters in some regions with colder winters. 6 Polyphagous phytophagous thrips have many factors predisposing them to become worldwide crop pests, particularly in glasshouses. Some other species that might spread in a similar way to the western flower thrips are listed.     

Selecting Biological Meaningful Environmental Dimensions of Low Discrepancy among Ranges to Predict Potential Distribution of Bean Plataspid Invasion

Background

The Bean plataspid (Megacopta cribraria) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species in North America; its potential spread to soybean producing areas in the US is of great concern. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used increasingly in predicting invasive species'' potential distribution; however, poor niche model transferability was sometimes reported, leading to the artifactual conclusion of niche differentiation during species'' invasion.

Methodology/Principals

We aim to improve the geographical transferability of ENM via environmental variable selection to predict the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion. Sixteen environmental dimensions between native and introduced Bean plataspid populations were compared, and classified into two datasets with different degrees of discrepancy by the interquartile range (IQR) overlap in boxplot. Niche models based on these two datasets were compared in native model prediction and invading model projection. Classical niche model approaches (i.e., model calibrated on native range and transferred outside) were used to anticipate the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion.

Conclusions/Significance

Niche models based on the two datasets showed little difference in native model predictions; however, when projecting onto the introduced area, models based on the environmental datasets showing low discrepancy among ranges recovered good model transferability in predicting the newly established population of Bean plataspid in the US. Recommendations were made for selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to improve niche model transferability among these geographically separated areas. Outside of its native range, areas with invasion potential include the southeastern US in North America, southwestern Europe, southeastern South America, southern Africa, and the eastern coastal Australia.     

Potential geographic distribution of brown marmorated stink bug invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

Background

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies.

Methodology/Principals

We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).

Conclusions/Significance

Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°–50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.     

The current and future potential geographic range of West Indian fruit fly,Anastrepha obliqua （Diptera： Tephritidae）

The West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua （Macquart）, is one of the most important pests throughout the Americas. CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of this pest. Under current climatic conditions, A. obliqua is predicted to be able to establish throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including not only North and South America, where it has been reported, but also southern Asia, northeastern Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main factors limiting the pest＇s range expansion may be cold stress. Climate change expands the potential distribution of A. obliqua poleward as cold stress boundaries recede, but the predicted distribution in northwestern Australia and northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease because of heat stress. Considering the widely suitable range for A. obliqua globally and in China, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.