Ideal versus actual: the contradiction in number of children born to Nigerian women

Although desired family size is often different from actual family size, the dynamics of this difference are not well understood. This paper examines the patterns and determinants of the difference between desired and actual number of children (unmet fertility desires) among women aged 15-49 years using pooled data from the 1990, 1999 and 2003 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHSs). The results show that more than two-thirds of the sample have unmet fertility desires (18.1% have more while 52.4% have fewer than desired). It was found that early and late childbearing increased the odds of unmet fertility desires. Also, women with low levels of education, from poor households, rural residents as well as those who had experienced child death were at a higher risk of unmet fertility desires in the multivariate context. The study highlights the policy and programme implications of the findings.     

Status,reproductive success,and marrying polygynously

A study of female reproductive histories from nineteenth-century Utah shows that although women who married polygynously had fewer children, their number of grandchildren was equal to that of women who married monogamously. Women who chose to marry high-status men polygynously traded decreased fertility for enhanced reproductive performance of offspring. High status can be associated with low fertility and yet still be consistent with fitness optimization. These results suggest how female reproductive decisions influence social structure and challenge previous assumptions concerning proximate measures of fitness.     

Sociodemographic attributes of Iranian wives who reported unwanted pregnancies

In a 1989 Family Planning Study in Iran, 40 percent of the married women of reproductive age reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted and unintended. This finding is consistent with the results obtained from a number of studies undertaken in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Although the phenomenon of unwanted pregnancy is a significant topic in the population studies, it has received very little attention. This paper shows the differences between two groups: group A, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were wanted, and group B, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted. The findings of this study clearly show significant differences between these two groups in regard to some key sociodemographic attributes: wife/husband's education, actual and desired fertility, wife's current age, past and present practice of contraceptive methods, and extent of satisfaction with family planning services are among the attributes differentiating these two groups. Our examination of these variables suggests that group B had higher parity, fertility, less desire for more children, less use of contraceptive techniques, and less satisfaction with the efficiency of the contraceptive techniques than group A. The relationship between education and wanted/unwanted pregnancies is mixed. The urban women who wanted pregnancies and were 25 years old or older were more educated than those who did not want pregnancies. On the contrary, the rural women whose pregnancies were not wanted were more educated than those who wanted pregnancies regardless of age, parity, and locality differences. Furthermore, the urban/rural women with different levels of parities who did not want to be pregnant were more educated than the urban/rural women who wanted pregnancies. Finally, the standardized regression coefficients, obtained in logistic regression, reveal that among urban women the desire for more children and parity are the first and second most significant independent variables differentiating between group A and group B. Among rural women, living children and the desire for more children were the first and second most important variables differentiating between group A and group B.     

Achievement of reproductive intentions in Sri Lanka, 1982-1985: a longitudinal study.

The achievement or reproductive intentions of Sri Lankan women was examined by using longitudinal data for the period 1982-85. Aggregate consistency between reproductive intentions and behavior was almost perfect, but at the individual level there were inconsistencies. Among those who wanted to have no more children, 23 per cent reported a birth in the intersurvey period of 3 years and 2 months, while failures to have a wanted birth stood at 36 per cent. There was a clear declining trend in the former type of inconsistencies in Sri Lanka, but the latter type has increased, possibly due to a continuing decline in family size ideals or due to deferred childbearing. Even though inconsistencies existed, expressed fertility intentions in 1982 significantly influenced the fertility outcome. The study also has a methodological focus on whether to include sterilized women when fertility intentions and behavior are examined longitudinally, but no specific problems were found with their inclusion. Results indicate that, apart from the intention variable, age, marital duration, family size, and education of husband and wife variables all influenced fertility in the follow-up period.     

Fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour in Matlab: do fertility intentions matter?

This study examines the extent of the interrelationship between future fertility intention and subsequent fertility behaviour in rural Bangladesh using longitudinal data. It confirms that fertility intention is an important predictor of subsequent fertility behaviour for rural Bangladeshi women. Women wanting no more children are over three times less likely to have a child during a 5-year follow-up than those wanting more children. A multivariate model using logistic regression shows that fertility intention is a useful indicator for fertility behaviour, when background and life-cycle variables are controlled. The different patterns of fertility intentions by socioeconomic and demographic subgroups suggest that different programme strategies should be designed for specific target groups.     

Sociodemographic attributes of Iranian wives who reported unwanted pregnancies

Abstract

In a 1989 Family Planning Study in Iran, 40 percent of the married women of reproductive age reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted and unintended. This finding is consistent with the results obtained from a number of studies undertaken in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Although the phenomenon of unwanted pregnancy is a significant topic in the population studies, it has received very little attention. This paper shows the differences between two groups: group A, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were wanted, and group B, those married women who reported that their last or current pregnancies were unwanted. The findings of this study clearly show significant differences between these two groups in regard to some key sociodemographic attributes: wife/husband's education, actual and desired fertility, wife's current age, past and present practice of contraceptive methods, and extent of satisfaction with family planning services are among the attributes differentiating these two groups. Our examination of these variables suggests that group B had higher parity, fertility, less desire for more children, less use of contraceptive techniques, and less satisfaction with the efficiency of the contraceptive techniques than group A. The relationship between education and wanted/unwanted pregnancies is mixed. The urban women who wanted‐pregnancies and were 25 years old or older were more educated than those who did not want pregnancies. On the contrary, the rural women whose pregnancies were not wanted were more educated than those who wanted pregnancies regardless of age, parity, and locality differences. Furthermore, the urban/rural women with different levels of parities who did not want to be pregnant were more educated than the urban/rural women who wanted pregnancies. Finally, the standardized regression coefficients, obtained in logistic regression, reveal that among urban women the desire for more children and parity are the first and second most significant independent variables differentiating between group A and group B. Among rural women, living children and the desire for more children were the first and second most important variables differentiating between group A and group B.     

Fertility preferences among Malaysian women: an analysis of responses to the new population policy

About 10% of 3887 ever-married women included in the 1984-85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey revealed that they were influenced by the new population policy to desire more children than they had originally wanted. These women were more likely to be rural Malays from the lower socioeconomic class. Ideal family size was more than four children. Children are desired for economic benefits and emotional support. The natality of the Malays has risen since 1980: their total fertility rate has increased while their contraceptive prevalence rate has dropped sharply. Coupled with a decline in the crude death rate, the present fertility preferences and behaviour of the Malays will render the target of the population policy more attainable than is reflected by the survey data.     

Causes and consequences of increase in child survival rates: ethnoepidemiology among the Hmong of Thailand.

The Hmong "hill tribe" minority in Thailand has much higher exposure to factors usually associated with risk of child mortality (high fertility, low status of women, low education, less use of modern medical care for births, exposure to warfare, economic and physical disruption, and poor hygienic conditions) than the rural ethnic Thai population. Nonetheless, infant mortality has declined from over 120 per 1000 to under 50 per 1000 live births among both these populations in the past 30 years. The reason for the rapid increase in child survival among the Hmong appears to be better access to and more use of modern curative and preventive medical care associated with road construction rather than major changes in social or hygienic conditions. Conventional wisdom suggests that high fertility is both a cause and a consequence of high infant and child mortality and that parents will not reduce fertility until they see that mortality has declined. Most Hmong parents recognize the decline in child mortality and attribute it to better access to modern medical care. Most Hmong parents also say that, if they were starting to have children now, they would want to have fewer children. Fear of child death is infrequently mentioned as a motive for having more children, and the perceived decline in child mortality is rarely mentioned as a reason for reduced fertility. Most Hmong parents explain their desired family size in terms of economic conditions rather than perceived risk of child mortality. Results of this study suggest that fertility and child mortality can vary independently of one another and that major reductions in child mortality can be accomplished without waiting for major social changes (e.g., improved education or status of women) or major reductions in fertility.     

Fertility and population policy in two counties in China 1980-1991

A survey of women in two highly developed rural counties of China, Sichuan and Jiangsu Provinces, was carried out in late 1991, to gain information about demographic and economic change between 1980 and 1990. Three separate surveys were conducted: the first a questionnaire administered to married women aged 30-39, eliciting information about childbearing and contraception, as well as the social and economic background of the respondents; the second, focus group interviews emphasizing the motivation for childbearing. Official information about the selected villages, townships and counties was also collected. National level data in 1987 show that individual reproductive behaviour in China failed to conform to a universal, effectively implemented, population policy. They imply either a spatial range of policies, or great diversity in the demand for children, or perhaps a combination of both. Such diversity in reproductive behaviour is also found in the study area. The purpose of the analysis was to examine the diversity in reproductive behaviour and contraceptive practice, and to discover whether differentials are influenced by area, or else exist between individuals within areas. If the former, then the explanation may be found in differences in policy formulation and implementation between areas: and if the latter, to demand for children, or else differential application of policy restrictions. The main findings were that: (1) the explanation of the pattern of fertility and contraceptive use is to be found at the individual level (within locations) rather than in policy differences between administrative units; (2) the association between income and number of children is negative, as is that between income and the propensity for uniparous women to remain unsterilized. The theory that privilege may be exercised to gain concessions from birth planning cadres is therefore not supported; (3) ideal family size differentials are largely absent, showing that social (education) and economic (income, occupation) characteristics are not responsible for differences in reproductive motivations, and implying that the nature of the demand for children is very different from that in most rural areas of the Third World; (4) data on ideal family size by sex of the existing offspring indicate only a weak preference for sons. The low demand for children, and the weak son preference, may both be explained by the social acceptability of uxorilocal marriages, and of village endogamy, together with the prohibitive costs of children, and especially of sons. This partly results from the expense of education, but most mothers emphasize marriage costs. It is speculated that the circumstances responsible for the escalating costs of children in the two countries are likely to pertain in growing areas of the country, with the privatization of education and health services, the declining support of collective institutions, and the replacement of this function by kinship networks. These on-going changes imply that any policy of reproductive restriction for the purposes of population control is likely soon to meet with diminishing resistance; and it may later be rendered unnecessary in the eyes of government officials, as fulfilled reproductive intentions lead to a fertility level below replacement level.     

Deformed nasal septa and relaxed selection

Abstract

Demographic studies undertaken in several Andean countries have found that women residing at high altitudes have significantly fewer live births than do their low altitude counterparts. This reduction has been explained as being due to various factors: the debilitating effects of hypoxia upon the reproductive system; the effects of sociocultural factors which vary with altitude and which affect reproductive behavior; and errors in data collection. In order to examine the validity of some of these hypotheses, the fertility of a group of 906 Bolivian women residing at low, medium, and high altitudes was examined. The women were selected from the lower socioeconomic strata and reported never having used any method of contraception. A detailed analysis of the fertility of these women showed no significant altitude‐related differences in the number of live births. However, as a result of significantly higher childhood mortality rates at altitude, there was a significant reduction in numbers of living children. The results of this study suggest that the collection and analysis of census data that ignores socioeconomic differences within a population or differences among census units in neonatal or early childhood mortality may bias or complicate the study of the impact of altitude on human fertility. Although the present research does not prove that hypoxic stress does not affect the reproductive system, the results suggest that if altitude does reduce fecundity, the reduction is not great and is likely to be shown only through studies of reproductive physiology.     

The preference for an additional child among married women in Seoul, Korea

South Korea reported a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.08 in 2005. This is the lowest level of all nations in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Recently, the decline in the fertility rate has been a dominant phenomenon in Korea's major cities. This study investigated the relationship between social environmental factors and fertility intentions for married women in Seoul, the capital of Korea, using a sample of 2211 married women who responded to the Seoul Citizens Health and Social Indicators Survey, 2005. Here, the effects of selected social environmental characteristics on fertility intentions are explored using multivariate logistic regression models. The relationships among a woman's age, number of living children, job type, housing type, and social group participation were strong indicators of the intention to have additional children. Younger women living with fewer children generally have a higher intention to have additional children. Among women's job types, blue-collar workers have a lower preference for additional children than white-collar workers and housewives. Married women participating in social groups have a lower preference for additional children than non-participants. Women's participation in social activities appears to have various benefits, both individually and socially. However, whereas women's participation in economic activities has been linked to questions of fertility in previous studies, the relationship between fertility and social activities has been downplayed. Women's participation in social activities has increased over the past several decades, and the trend continues to grow. Therefore, women's participation in social activities must be accepted as the status quo, and compatibility between women's participation in social activities and childrearing needs to be increased. Consequently, a strong foundation for a fertility-friendly environment is needed, focusing on blue-collar workers and participation in social activities by married women.     

Assessing the reproductive behavior of on- and off-reservation American Indian females: characteristics of two groups in Montana

Only limited fertility and general reproductive health data exist on American Indians. Using data from the 1987 Montana American Indian Health Risk Assessment, we found that the fertility of American Indians in Great Falls and on the Blackfeet Reservation was similar to blacks in the U.S. and relatively high when compared with fertility of whites in the United States. The influence of the direct determinants of fertility (nuptiality, contraceptive use, and lactation) was very different for the populations examined in this study. Great Falls American Indians and the U.S. black population were similar regarding age at first sexual intercourse (very young), breastfeeding (low prevalence and short duration), planning status of pregnancies (high unplanned), and contraceptive use (only moderate use). In contrast, Blackfeet women on the reservation and the U.S. white population married relatively late, had very high contraceptive use, used effective methods of contraception, and had moderately high levels of breastfeeding. However, Blackfeet fertility was much higher than that of whites. Three interrelated reasons are suggested as possible explanations. Blackfeet couples either wanted high fertility, were relatively poor users of family planning methods, or used less effective methods until they had exceeded their desired family size after which time they turned to sterilization. These finds raise numerous questions concerning the social and economic factors that may account for these group similarities and differences. Further studies with much larger data sets are needed to address these issues adequately.     

Son preference and child replacement in Bangladesh: a new look at the child survival hypothesis

Birth history data from women in the 1975-76 Bangladesh Fertility Survey were used to search for intentions to replace dead children. The median intervals between successive births of orders (i) and (i + 1) were not shorter when some siblings of orders below (i) had died. Nor was the median duration between the death of a child and the first posthumous birth shorter when the dead child was a boy or when it was survived by fewer than two brothers. The median intervals were generally shorter when the mother lived in an urban rather than a rural area but this difference was attributable only to the shorter duration of breast-feeding by urban women. These results disputed the notions that the timing of births was deliberately quicker to replace a dead child, that attempts at replacement were sex-selective, or that child replacement intentions were stronger in urban than in rural populations.     

The delineation of fertility strategies in a tribal population of India: the Koyas of Koraput District,Orissa

Demographic data collected for a tribal population of India, the Koyas of Koraput District, Orissa, were examined in light of 2 models of reproductive behavior associated with the economic value of children: the replacement effect and son survivorship motivation. Both models are united in the concept that infant/child mortality affects subsequent fertility. The database consists of retrospective fertility histories of Koya women who had completed their reproductive period. The total number was 260, with the total offspring numbering 1407. 2 distinct cohorts of women were formed for the purpose of analysis, separated only by the criterion of offspring survival: women who had experienced infant child mortality (129 women with 739 children); and women who completed their reproductive period without suffering offspring loss of this nature (132 women with 668 children). The cohort without child loss had a mean parity of 5.10, lower than the average parity of 5.73 recorded for the cohort whose reproductive histories included at least 1 infant/child death. Age specific marital fertility and birth interval analyses indicated that this differential was because of biological, not behavioral, factors. The age pattern of fertility of females suffering offspring mortality failed to demonstrate a high rate of childbearing in the later age intervals of the reproductive period, a characteristic pattern of couples attempting to "replace" lost offspring. Birth interval analysis pointed to biological "interval effect," whereby infant/child mortality caused a cessation of lactation and hence a shortening of postpartum amenorrhea. Computer simulation further indicated that the higher fertility differential of the cohort experiencing offspring loss still did not result in high son survivorship values. The findings agree with earlier studies indicating that for predemographic transitional populations, economically motivated fertility strategies are ineffectual.     

Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal

Economic growth and modernization of society are generally associated with fertility rate decreases but which forces trigger this is unclear. In this paper we assess how fertility changes with increased labor market participation of women in rural Senegal. Evidence from high-income countries suggests that higher female employment rates lead to reduced fertility rates but evidence from developing countries at an early stage of demographic transition is largely absent. We concentrate on a rural area in northern Senegal where a recent boom in horticultural exports has been associated with a sudden increase in female off-farm employment. Using survey data we show that employed women have a significantly higher age at marriage and at first childbirth, and significantly fewer children. As causal identification strategy we use instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimations, combined with propensity score matching. We find that female employment reduces the number of children per woman by 25%, and that this fertility-reducing effect is as large for poor as for non-poor women and larger for illiterate than for literate women. Results imply that female employment is a strong instrument for empowering rural women, reducing fertility rates and accelerating the demographic transition in poor countries. The effectiveness of family planning programs can increase if targeted to areas where female employment is increasing or to female employees directly because of a higher likelihood to reach women with low-fertility preferences. Our results show that changes in fertility preferences not necessarily result from a cultural evolution but can also be driven by sudden and individual changes in economic opportunities.     

Community-level education accelerates the cultural evolution of fertility decline

Explaining why fertility declines as populations modernize is a profound theoretical challenge. It remains unclear whether the fundamental drivers are economic or cultural in nature. Cultural evolutionary theory suggests that community-level characteristics, for example average education, can alter how low-fertility preferences are transmitted and adopted. These assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here, we show that community-level education accelerates fertility decline in a way that is neither predicted by individual characteristics, nor by the level of economic modernization in a population. In 22 high-fertility communities in Poland, fertility converged on a smaller family size as average education in the community increased—indeed community-level education had a larger impact on fertility decline than did individual education. This convergence was not driven by educational levels being more homogeneous, but by less educated women having fewer children than expected, and more highly educated social networks, when living among more highly educated neighbours. The average level of education in a community may influence the social partners women interact with, both within and beyond their immediate social environments, altering the reproductive norms they are exposed to. Given a critical mass of highly educated women, less educated neighbours may adopt their reproductive behaviour, accelerating the pace of demographic transition. Individual characteristics alone cannot capture these dynamics and studies relying solely on them may systematically underestimate the importance of cultural transmission in driving fertility declines. Our results are inconsistent with a purely individualistic, rational-actor model of fertility decline and suggest that optimization of reproduction is partly driven by cultural dynamics beyond the individual.     

Fitness and fertility among Kalahari !Kung

In this paper we develop a model that examines fertility and childhood mortality patterns and their relationship to environmental variables. Interactions among environmental variables can account for different fertility patterns and different mixes of these variables can produce similar patterns of fertility. Our model attempts to quantify the idea that there is a trade-off between producing a few children likely to survive to reproductive age and producing a greater number of children with lower chances for survival. The optimum mix of these strategies depends on environmental characteristics. We use the model to make predictions about fertility and mortality patterns among two Bushmen populations of southern Africa--the Ghanzi and Ngamiland !Kung--using data collected by Harpending in 1967-1968. The results do not support explanations of the low fertilities observed among !Kung Bushmen women, in whom it is thought that fitness is maximized by limiting fertility, and show no relationship between mortality and family size in either !Kung population. Instead, the number of offspring reaching reproductive age in both populations increases as their completed family size increases. We examine the effects of sex, birth order, and paternal investment on mortality. No sex ratio differences and no differences in mortality by sex or birth order are present. Infant mortality among women who married more than once is significantly higher than among women who married once, suggesting that paternal care has a significant effect.     

Widowhood, illegitimacy, marital reproduction and female longevity in a rural Spanish population

Using data from parish and civil registers in a rural community in northwest Spain (Los Nogales), family reconstitution provided 1502 complete reproductive histories, of which 584 corresponded to first marriages of women dying after their 50th birthday. A homogeneous sample consisting of women married in the period 1877–1899 (N = 311) provided information concerning their reproductive performance, including ages at first and last maternity and number of children born alive and surviving, which was related to the mother's post-menopausal longevity, also considering premarital fertility and her marital status (widow/married). The results obtained indicate that mothers with a lower proportion of children dying before the first birthday and the age of 15 (mainly males) have a greater post-reproductive longevity. Moreover, women with a more protracted end to their reproductive period and greater fertility live for more years beyond their 50th birthday. These results do not prove a causality between maternal longevity and more successful reproduction; instead, they are indicative of a holistic condition of health. A wide spectrum of favorable biological and environmental factors will have positive consequences for a woman's life trajectory, affecting both her reproductive performance and her own likelihood of surviving.     

Fertility Desires and Intentions of HIV-Positive Women of Reproductive Age in Ontario,Canada: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Improvements in life expectancy and quality of life for HIV-positive women coupled with reduced vertical transmission will likely lead numerous HIV-positive women to consider becoming pregnant. In order to clarify the demand, and aid with appropriate health services planning for this population, our study aims to assess the fertility desires and intentions of HIV-positive women of reproductive age living in Ontario, Canada.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A cross-sectional study with recruitment stratified to match the geographic distribution of HIV-positive women of reproductive age (18–52) living in Ontario was carried out. Women were recruited from 38 sites between October 2007 and April 2009 and invited to complete a 189-item self-administered survey entitled “The HIV Pregnancy Planning Questionnaire” designed to assess fertility desires, intentions and actions. Logistic regression models were fit to calculate unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios of significant predictors of fertility intentions. The median age of the 490 participating HIV-positive women was 38 (IQR, 32–43) and 61%, 52%, 47% and 74% were born outside of Canada, living in Toronto, of African ethnicity and currently on antiretroviral therapy, respectively. Of total respondents, 69% (95% CI, 64%–73%) desired to give birth and 57% (95% CI, 53%–62%) intended to give birth in the future. In the multivariable model, the significant predictors of fertility intentions were: younger age (age<40) (p<0.0001), African ethnicity (p<0.0001), living in Toronto (p = 0.002), and a lower number of lifetime births (p = 0.02).

Conclusions/Significance

The proportions of HIV-positive women of reproductive age living in Ontario desiring and intending pregnancy were higher than reported in earlier North American studies. Proportions were more similar to those reported from African populations. Healthcare providers and policy makers need to consider increasing services and support for pregnancy planning for HIV-positive women. This may be particularly significant in jurisdictions with high levels of African immigration.     

Sociodemographic characteristics and intentions for further births in France

The purpose of this study, which interviewed 356 couples of childbearing age in the Lyon region of France, was to analyze the different attitudes of men and women towards parenthood, and to identify the social and personal characteristics which may modify these attitudes. The 2 groups in the study, the 183 couples who wanted an additional child and the 127 who did not, were compared in relation to socioeconomic status, woman's work status, woman's age at 1st birth, and absence of a child of each sex. (46 couples with conflicting intentions were excluded.) The couples intending to have further children on average had significantly fewer children, were younger, and less frequently had a child of each sex. The other factors were statiscally insignificant. The fertility rate of couples not wanting more children was above the replacement rate of 2.6. The rate for couples intending to have another child was comparable at 2.4, except that the average 5 year age differences between the 2 groups was higher than the usual interval between 2 births, reinforcing the trend toward a model family of 2 or 3 children and greater intervals between consecutive births.