Small mammals cycles in northern Europe: patterns and evidence for a maternal effect hypothesis

1. Voles undergo pronounced oscillations over periods of 3–5 years in northern Europe. A latitudinal gradient of cycle periods and amplitudes has been reported for Fennoscandia, with periods and amplitudes increasing towards northern latitudes.
2. This study formulates a discrete time model based on maternal effects to explain the density fluctuation patterns of microtine rodents. The phenotypic transmission of quality from mothers to offspring generates delayed density dependence, which produces cyclic behaviour in the model.
3. The dynamic patterns predicted by the maternal effect model agree with data. We conclude that the maternal effect hypothesis is a plausible, parsimonious explanation for vole-density cycles in northern Europe.     

Population cycles in freshwater fish

Year-class strength in fish populations frequently follows an erratic pattern. However, predictable cyclic fluctuations in recruitment have been reported in a number of instances. In fish in which a single age-class is responsible for all or most of the production of eggs, a cycle may be set up with a period equal to the time taken to reach maturity. Moreover, density-dependence may act through fecundity or via survival of eggs or fish subject to interactions with predators or competitors. This paper reviews examples of cyclic variation in year-class strength and discusses the range of underlying causes.     

Small rodent population fluctuations: The effects of age structure and seasonality

Despite more than 50 years of effort, the causes and mechanisms of small rodent population fluctuations remain unknown. The two major questions are as follows: (1) what is the cause of population decline and (2) what is the cause of cyclicity and its geographical variation? At present, no hypothesis can provide answers to both these questions. Recently, progress has been made by Boonstra (1994), who proposed the senescence hypothesis to explain the cause of cyclic decline in population numbers. Here, we tested the main prediction that voles in decline are older than in other phases of the cycle, by analysing changes in age structure in a fluctuating population of the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus). The results generally support this prediction; however, the differences in absolute age seem to be too small to explain the occurrence of senescent animals exclusively in declines. We propose a new model to explain changes in age structure and the mechanisms behind the decline and geographic variation in cyclicity. It is based on the idea that voles are oldest in declines, developed independently of Boonstra. However, it differs in three respects: (1) it is more general and thereby applicable to the whole cycle; (2) density-dependent changes in age structure are based on the bimodality in a female's age at first reproduction; and (3) it stresses developmental rather than physiological changes in the quality of decline of animals as being relevant to the rate of senescence. We propose that seasonality of the environment is a principal candidate to explain geographical variation in cyclicity. We present substantial theoretical and empirical evidence to indicate that in more seasonal environments with shortened vegetation periods, population dynamics is inevitably less stable due to increased variation in two critical parameters – age at first reproduction and the length of the breeding season – which determine population growth rates. Any external perturbation may then easily destabilize population numbers. The general applicability of the seasonality-senescence hypothesis to other mammalian species decreases with declining r and increasing life span. The hypothesis is falsifiable, and testable predictions are provided.     

The fitness costs of senescence: The evolutionary importance of events in early adult life

Summary The increased mortality caused by ageing represents a fitness cost to organisms. This paper develops techniques for determining the proportions of that cost that accrue at each age. A variety of analyses using several different sources of data on human ageing—palaeodemographic life tables and life tables from more recent societies with high mortality rates—all suggest that the fitness cost of ageing was high during most of our evolutionary history, and was largely due to physiological changes occurring early in adult life. These results imply that predictions about the nature of senescence based on evolutionary theory should be tested using data from middle-aged individuals. They also have implications about the relative importances for human evolution of the pleiotropy and mutation-accumulation theories of the evolution of senescence, and for the validity of Gompertz Law' for the shape of the relationship between mortality and age. An analysis of a life table of the African buffalo suggests that the costs of ageing early in adult life are relatively high in at least one non-human species in its natural environment.     

Evolutionary senescence in plants

Senescence is a decline in age-specific survival and reproduction with advancing age. Studies of evolutionary plant senescence are designed to explain this decline in life history components within the context of natural selection. A review of studies of plant demography reveals senescent declines in both annual and perennial plants, but also suggests that there are some plant species which may not be expected to show senescence. Thus, future comparative studies of closely related species, with and without senescence, should be possible. The assumptions of the major evolutionary theories of senescence are evaluated for their validity with respect to plants. Different plant species violate one or more of the assumptions of the theories, yet the consequences of violating these assumptions have never been investigated. Whereas, to date, evolutionary senescence has been studied only indirectly in plants, it is concluded that plants provide good experimental systems for clarifying our understanding of senescence in natural populations.     

Empirical Modelling of the Population Dynamics of a Small Population of the Threespine Stickleback, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>

Synopsis We estimated the abundance of a small population of threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, by mark-recapture over a 21 year period. Length-frequency analysis showed that the population in October consisted almost entirely of young-of-the-year. The per capita annual rate of increase was inversely related to abundance in October. Time series analysis suggested the presence of a cycle of abundance with a period of about 6 years. There was a significant inverse relationship between abundance in year t and in year t + 3. A simple, empirical, deterministic model based on this inverse relationship and run for 100 years predicted that population abundance showed damped oscillations leading to a stable abundance. When a stochastic component was added to the model, seven of 10 runs included a component with a period of about 6 years. These simulations suggest that the dynamics of this population are driven by an interaction between a deterministic (density-dependent) component and a stochastic component. We compare these results with time series of abundance of threespine stickleback obtained from the Thames Estuary in south-east England and Loch Lomond in Scotland.     

Before senescence: the evolutionary demography of ontogenesis

The age-specific mortality curve for many species, including humans, is U-shaped: mortality declines with age in the developing cohort (ontogenescence) before increasing with age (senescence). The field of evolutionary demography has long focused on understanding the evolution of senescence while largely failing to address the evolution of ontogenescence. The current review is the first to gather the few available hypotheses addressing the evolution of ontogenescence, examine the basis and assumptions of each and ask what the phylogenetic extent of ontogenescence may be. Ontogenescence is among the most widespread of life-history traits, occurring in every population for which I have found sufficiently detailed data, in major groups throughout the eukaryotes, across many causes of death and many life-history types. Hypotheses seeking to explain ontogenescence include those based on kin selection, the acquisition of robustness, heterogeneous frailties and life-history optimization. I propose a further hypothesis, arguing that mortality drops with age because most transitions that could trigger the risks caused by genetic and developmental malfunctions are concentrated in early life. Of these hypotheses, only those that frame ontogenescence as an evolutionary by-product rather than an adaptation can explain the tremendous diversity of organisms and environments in which it occurs.     

The macroecology of population dynamics: taxonomic and biogeographic patterns in population cycles

Regular cycles in population abundance are fascinating phenomena, but are they common in natural populations? How are they distributed among taxa? Are there differences between different regions of the world, or along latitudinal gradients? Using the new Global Population Dynamics Database we analysed nearly 700 long (25 + years) time series of animal field populations, looking for large-scale patterns in cycles. Nearly 30% of the time series were cyclic. Cycle incidence varied among taxonomic classes, being most common in mammal and fish populations, but only in fish did cycle incidence vary among orders. Cycles were equally common in European and North American populations, but were more common in Atlantic fish than Pacific fish. The incidence of cycles increased with latitude in mammals only. There was no latitudinal gradient in cycle period, but cycle amplitude declined with latitude in some groups of fish. Even after considering the biases in the data source and expected type I error, population cycles seem common enough to warrant ecological attention.     

The first born,their dispersal,and vole cycles

Summary On the basis of some empirical data and the existing theory of vole cycles, a new hypothesis is proposed. It explains cyclicity as an effect of obligatory dispersal of the first seasonal cohort of young (Y1) from their natal (optimal) habitats into vacant (suboptimal) habitats. This behaviour could evolve, because it increases contribution of genetic lineages with dispersing Y1, to subsequent generation. It is assumed that the dispersal of Y1 is common among vole species, it does not change during consecutive phases of the cycle, and it does not vary between cyclic and non-cyclic populations. It results in multiannual cycles only under a certain set of spatial and climatic conditions, which are discussed in a paper. Otherwise it results in annual dynamics.     

Single generation cycles and delayed feedback cycles are not separate phenomena

We study a simple model for generation cycles, which are oscillations with a period of one or a few generation times of the species. The model is formulated in terms of a single delay-differential equation for the population density of an adult stage, with recruitment to the adult stage depending on the intensity of competition during the juvenile phase. This model is a simplified version of a group of models proposed by Gurney and Nisbet, who were the first to distinguish between single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles. According to these authors, the two oscillation types are caused by different mechanisms and have periods in different intervals, which are one to two generation times for single-generation cycles and two to four generation times for delayed-feedback cycles. By abolishing the strict coupling between the maturation time and the time delay between competition and its effect on the population dynamics, we find that single-generation cycles and delayed-feedback cycles occur in the same model version, with a gradual transition between the two as the model parameters are varied over a sufficiently large range. Furthermore, cycle periods are not bounded to lie within single octaves. This implies that a clear distinction between different types of generation cycles is not possible. Cycles of all periods and even chaos can be generated by varying the parameters that determine the time during which individuals from different cohorts compete with each other. This suggests that life-cycle features in the juvenile stage and during the transition to the adult stage are important determinants of the dynamics of density limited populations.     

The death hormone hypothesis

The 'death hormones' or monocarpic senescence factors are hypothetical substances transported from the fruits to the vegetative parts of the mother plant, where they may stop growth, activate senescence, remobilize nutrients. and finally lead to the death of the plant. Death hormones could well be derivatives of jasmonic acid, 4-chloroindoleacetic acid, or other chlorine compounds.     

Population structure,demography, and dynamics of mountain baboons: An interim report

Counts of 61 baboon troops (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) at four localities in the Drakensberg mountains confirmed earlier reports of a small mean troop size. This troop size of 22.49 animals changed neither with latitude nor elevation. Data from two of the sites suggested that population density increases from south to north, while a working assumption of 2.5 animals/ km² allowed us to set the population size at 7,540 animals, living in 335 troops. Both the adult sex ratio of 2.07 females/male and the immature/ adult female ratio of 1.17 were unaffected by troop size. Repeated counts from nine known troops revealed that the population is at equilibrium. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

From climate change to population change: the need to consider annual life cycles

Detailed studies of organisms' life cycles are important for understanding population response to climate change. However, in general one cannot make strong inference about the overall population response from such studies, unless the full annual cycle of the species in question is covered. Here, we present a theoretical framework for the understanding of population response to climate change. Owing to the combined effects of demography, intraspecific feedback, and a possible use of environmental cues, environmentally induced changes in survival and/or reproduction do not necessarily lead to a straightforward change in population size. This framework can guide our thinking about how abiotic conditions work their way to the population level. More specifically, it can help us to identify mechanisms that need to be examined when predicting population change in response to expected climate change.     

Population cycles in voles and lemmings: state of the science and future directions

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Evolutionary mechanisms of senescence

This paper reviews theories of the evolution of senescence. The population genetic basis for the decline with age in sensitivity of fitness to changes in survival and fecundity is discussed. It is shown that this creates a presure of selection that disproportionately favors performance early in life. The extent of this bias is greater when there is a high level of extrinsic mortality; this accounts for much the diversity in life-history patterns among different taxa. The implications of quantitative genetic theory for experimental tests of alternative population genetic models of senescence are discussed. In particular, the negative genetic correlations between traits predicted by the antagonistic pleiotropy model may be obscured by positive correlations that are inevitable in a multivariate system, or by the effects of variation due to deleterious mutations. The status of the genetic evidence relevant to these theories is discussed.     

Sex differences in senescence: the role of intra-sexual competition in early adulthood

Males and females frequently differ in their rates of ageing, but the origins of these differences are poorly understood. Sex differences in senescence have been hypothesized to arise, because investment in intra-sexual reproductive competition entails costs to somatic maintenance, leaving the sex that experiences stronger reproductive competition showing higher rates of senescence. However, evidence that sex differences in senescence are attributable to downstream effects of the intensity of intra-sexual reproductive competition experienced during the lifetime remains elusive. Here, we show using a 35 year study of wild European badgers (Meles meles), that (i) males show higher body mass senescence rates than females and (ii) this sex difference is largely attributable to sex-specific downstream effects of the intensity of intra-sexual competition experienced during early adulthood. Our findings provide rare support for the view that somatic maintenance costs arising from intra-sexual competition can cause both individual variation and sex differences in senescence.     

Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.