Generalized variance component models for clustered categorical response variables

A generalized variance component model is proposed for the analysis of a categorical response variable with extra-multinomial variation. Categorical data obtained from research designs such as randomized multicenter clinical trials or complex sample surveys with clustering frequently exhibit extra-variation resulting from intracluster correlation. General correlation patterns are accounted for by utilizing a mixed-effects modelling approach, estimating the cluster variance components through the method of moments and modelling functions of the observed proportions through the use of estimating equations. A flexible set of assumptions characterizing the underlying covariance structure for the proportions can be accommodated. The importance of accounting for extra-variation when performing hypothesis tests is highlighted with an application to data from a multi-investigator clinical trial.     

Probability density functions useful for parametrization of heterogeneity in growth and allometry data

This paper addresses the problem of modelling heterogeneous individual characteristics in a population. A flexible unified approach for stochastic parametrization dynamics of the distribution in population data is proposed. To approximate data with multiple observations per individual, models based on Markov processes are constructed. The method can be applied to scalar or multivariate characteristics, and its application to growth and allometry data is considered. Different stochastic versions of known growth and allometry functions are developed, which enable wide applicability. Simple informative growth indices are calculated as the moments of distribution. The three-parameter Gompertz growth model for size-at-age data was reparametrized to a size-increment data model with two parameters. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Cormack–Jolly–Seber model with environmental covariates: A P‐spline approach

In capture–recapture models, survival and capture probabilities can be modelled as functions of time‐varying covariates, such as temperature or rainfall. The Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model allows for flexible modelling of these covariates; however, the functional relationship may not be linear. We extend the CJS model by semi‐parametrically modelling capture and survival probabilities using a frequentist approach via P‐splines techniques. We investigate the performance of the estimators by conducting simulation studies. We also apply and compare these models with known semi‐parametric Bayesian approaches on simulated and real data sets.     

Fish distribution predictions from different points of view: comparing associative neural networks,geostatistics and regression models

Accurate prediction of species distributions based on sampling and environmental data is essential for further scientific analysis, such as stock assessment, detection of abundance fluctuation due to climate change or overexploitation, and to underpin management and legislation processes. The evolution of computer science and statistics has allowed the development of sophisticated and well-established modelling techniques as well as a variety of promising innovative approaches for modelling species distribution. The appropriate selection of modelling approach is crucial to the quality of predictions about species distribution. In this study, modelling techniques based on different approaches are compared and evaluated in relation to their predictive performance, utilizing fish density acoustic data. Generalized additive models and mixed models amongst the regression models, associative neural networks (ANNs) and artificial neural networks ensemble amongst the artificial neural networks and ordinary kriging amongst the geostatistical techniques are applied and evaluated. A verification dataset is used for estimating the predictive performance of these models. A combination of outputs from the different models is applied for prediction optimization to exploit the ability of each model to explain certain aspects of variation in species acoustic density. Neural networks and especially ANNs appear to provide more accurate results in fitting the training dataset while generalized additive models appear more flexible in predicting the verification dataset. The efficiency of each technique in relation to certain sampling and output strategies is also discussed.     

Modelling multivariate outcomes in hierarchical data, with application to cluster randomised trials

In the cluster randomised study design, the data collected have a hierarchical structure and often include multivariate outcomes. We present a flexible modelling strategy that permits several normally distributed outcomes to be analysed simultaneously, in which intervention effects as well as individual-level and cluster-level between-outcome correlations are estimated. This is implemented in a Bayesian framework which has several advantages over a classical approach, for example in providing credible intervals for functions of model parameters and in allowing informative priors for the intracluster correlation coefficients. In order to declare such informative prior distributions, and fit models in which the between-outcome covariance matrices are constrained, priors on parameters within the covariance matrices are required. Careful specification is necessary however, in order to maintain non-negative definiteness and symmetry between the different outcomes. We propose a novel solution in the case of three multivariate outcomes, and present a modified existing approach and novel alternative for four or more outcomes. The methods are applied to an example of a cluster randomised trial in the prevention of coronary heart disease. The modelling strategy presented would also be useful in other situations involving hierarchical multivariate outcomes.     

Proper multivariate conditional autoregressive models for spatial data analysis

In the past decade conditional autoregressive modelling specifications have found considerable application for the analysis of spatial data. Nearly all of this work is done in the univariate case and employs an improper specification. Our contribution here is to move to multivariate conditional autoregressive models and to provide rich, flexible classes which yield proper distributions. Our approach is to introduce spatial autoregression parameters. We first clarify what classes can be developed from the family of Mardia (1988) and contrast with recent work of Kim et al. (2000). We then present a novel parametric linear transformation which provides an extension with attractive interpretation. We propose to employ these models as specifications for second-stage spatial effects in hierarchical models. Two applications are discussed; one for the two-dimensional case modelling spatial patterns of child growth, the other for a four-dimensional situation modelling spatial variation in HLA-B allele frequencies. In each case, full Bayesian inference is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation.     

Using probability modelling and genetic parentage assignment to test the role of local mate availability in mating system variation

The formal testing of mating system theories with empirical data is important for evaluating the relative importance of different processes in shaping mating systems in wild populations. Here, we present a generally applicable probability modelling framework to test the role of local mate availability in determining a population's level of genetic monogamy. We provide a significance test for detecting departures in observed mating patterns from model expectations based on mate availability alone, allowing the presence and direction of behavioural effects to be inferred. The assessment of mate availability can be flexible and in this study it was based on population density, sex ratio and spatial arrangement. This approach provides a useful tool for (1) isolating the effect of mate availability in variable mating systems and (2) in combination with genetic parentage analyses, gaining insights into the nature of mating behaviours in elusive species. To illustrate this modelling approach, we have applied it to investigate the variable mating system of the mountain brushtail possum (Trichosurus cunninghami) and compared the model expectations with the outcomes of genetic parentage analysis over an 18-year study. The observed level of monogamy was higher than predicted under the model. Thus, behavioural traits, such as mate guarding or selective mate choice, may increase the population level of monogamy. We show that combining genetic parentage data with probability modelling can facilitate an improved understanding of the complex interactions between behavioural adaptations and demographic dynamics in driving mating system variation.     

Weighting environmental effects: Analytic survey with operational evaluation methods and a meta-method

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to supply an open method for weighting different environmental impacts, open to basically different evaluation approaches and open to easy revisions. From the partial, diverse and conflicting weighing methods available, a most consistent and flexible meta-method is constructed, allowing for a transparent discussion on weighting.

Methods

The methods incorporated are as general as possible, each single one being as pure as possible. We surveyed encompassing operational methods for evaluation, applicable in LCA and in larger systems like countries. They differ in terms of modelling, as to midpoint or as to endpoint; as to evaluation set-up, in terms of collective preferences or individual preferences; and as to being either revealed or stated. The first is midpoint modelling with collectively stated preferences, with operational weighting schemes from Dutch and US government applications. Second is the LCA-type endpoint approach using individual stated preferences, with public examples from Japan and the Netherlands. The third is the integrated modelling approach by economists.

Results

All methods are internally inconsistent, as in terms of treatment of place and time, and they are incomplete, lacking environmental interventions and effect routes. We repaired only incompleteness, by methods transfer. Finally, we combined the three groups of methods into a meta-weighting method, aligned to the ILCD Handbook requirements for impact assessment. Application to time series data on EU-27 consumption shows how the EU developed in terms of overall environmental decoupling.

Conclusions

The disparate methods available all can be improved substantially. For now, a user adjustable meta-method is the best option, allowing for public discussion. A flexible regularly updated spreadsheet is supplied with the article.     

Determinants of Low Birth Weight in Malawi: Bayesian Geo-Additive Modelling

Studies on factors of low birth weight in Malawi have neglected the flexible approach of using smooth functions for some covariates in models. Such flexible approach reveals detailed relationship of covariates with the response. The study aimed at investigating risk factors of low birth weight in Malawi by assuming a flexible approach for continuous covariates and geographical random effect. A Bayesian geo-additive model for birth weight in kilograms and size of the child at birth (less than average or average and higher) with district as a spatial effect using the 2010 Malawi demographic and health survey data was adopted. A Gaussian model for birth weight in kilograms and a binary logistic model for the binary outcome (size of child at birth) were fitted. Continuous covariates were modelled by the penalized (p) splines and spatial effects were smoothed by the two dimensional p-spline. The study found that child birth order, mother weight and height are significant predictors of birth weight. Secondary education for mother, birth order categories 2-3 and 4-5, wealth index of richer family and mother height were significant predictors of child size at birth. The area associated with low birth weight was Chitipa and areas with increased risk to less than average size at birth were Chitipa and Mchinji. The study found support for the flexible modelling of some covariates that clearly have nonlinear influences. Nevertheless there is no strong support for inclusion of geographical spatial analysis. The spatial patterns though point to the influence of omitted variables with some spatial structure or possibly epidemiological processes that account for this spatial structure and the maps generated could be used for targeting development efforts at a glance.     

应用地理信息系统模拟森林景观动态的研究

根据地理信息系统的结构,通过数据文件的转换,把它与森林动态模型有机地结合起来,可实现对森林景观动态的模拟和预测。这种模拟方法的数据输入灵活,运行速度快,尤其是它可以获得一些以各种图表的形式输出的模拟结果。本文用文字和框图详细描述了地理信息系统的组成与结构,及森林动态模型的选择与运行方式,并以长白山森林景观为例,叙述了这种模拟方法的整个过程。     

Characterization of conformational deformation-coupled interaction between immunoglobulin G1 Fc glycoprotein and a low-affinity Fcγ receptor by deuteration-assisted small-angle neutron scattering

A recently developed integrative approach combining varied types of experimental data has been successfully applied to three-dimensional modelling of larger biomacromolecular complexes. Deuteration-assisted small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) plays a unique role in this approach by making it possible to observe selected components in the complex. It enables integrative modelling of biomolecular complexes based on building-block structures typically provided by X-ray crystallography. In this integrative approach, it is important to be aware of the flexible properties of the individual building blocks. Here we examine the ability of SANS to detect a subtle conformational change of a multidomain protein using the Fc portion of human immunoglobulin G (IgG) interacting with a soluble form of the low-affinity Fcγ receptor IIIb (sFcγRIIIb) as a model system. The IgG-Fc glycoprotein was subjected to SANS in the absence and presence of 75%-deuterated sFcγRIIIb, which was matched out in D₂O solution. This inverse contrast-matching technique enabled selective observation of SANS from IgG-Fc, thereby detecting its subtle structural deformation induced by the receptor binding. The SANS data were successfully interpreted by considering previously reported crystallographic data and an equilibrium between free and sFcγRIIIb-bound forms. Our SANS data thus demonstrate the applicability of SANS in the integrative approach dealing with biomacromolecular complexes composed of weakly associated building blocks with conformational plasticity.     

sdm: a reproducible and extensible R platform for species distribution modelling

sdm is an object‐oriented, reproducible and extensible, platform for species distribution modelling. It uses individual species and community‐based approaches, enabling ensembles of models to be fitted and evaluated, to project species potential distributions in space and time. It provides a standardized and unified structure for handling species distributions data and modelling techniques, and supports markedly different modelling approaches, including correlative, process‐based (mechanistic), agent‐based, and cellular automata. The object‐oriented design of software is such that scientists can modify existing methods, extend the framework by developing new methods or modelling procedures, and share them to be reproduced by other scientists. sdm can handle spatial and temporal data for single or multiple species and uses high performance computing solutions to speed up modelling and simulations. The framework is implemented in R, providing a flexible and easy‐to‐use GUI interface.     

GPU-based real-time soft tissue deformation with cutting and haptic feedback

This article describes a series of contributions in the field of real-time simulation of soft tissue biomechanics. These contributions address various requirements for interactive simulation of complex surgical procedures. In particular, this article presents results in the areas of soft tissue deformation, contact modelling, simulation of cutting, and haptic rendering, which are all relevant to a variety of medical interventions. The contributions described in this article share a common underlying model of deformation and rely on GPU implementations to significantly improve computation times. This consistency in the modelling technique and computational approach ensures coherent results as well as efficient, robust and flexible solutions.     

New methodology for computer-aided modelling of biomolecular structure and dynamics. 2. Local deformations and cycles

A new methodology for the conformational modelling of biomolecular systems (1) is extended to local deformations of chain molecules and to flexible molecular rings. It is shown that these two cases may be reduced to considering an equivalent molecular model with a regular tree-like topology. A simple procedure is developed to analyze any flexible rings (the five- and six-membered sugar rings of carbohydrates and nucleic acids, in particular) and local deformation regions by energy minimization. Dynamic equations are also derived for such molecular systems. As a result, a unified approach is proposed for the efficient energy minimization and simulation of dynamic behavior of multimolecular systems having any set of variable internal coordinates, local deformation regions and cycles. Advantages and domains of applicability of the approach are discussed.     

A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a widely used tool and has many applications in ecology and conservation biology. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC), a pattern in which observations are related to one another by their geographic distance, is common in georeferenced ecological data. SAC in the residuals of SDMs violates the ‘independent errors’ assumption required to justify the use of statistical models in modelling species’ distributions. The autologistic modelling approach accounts for SAC by including an additional term (the autocovariate) representing the similarity between the value of the response variable at a location and neighbouring locations. However, autologistic models have been found to introduce bias in the estimation of parameters describing the influence of explanatory variables on habitat occupancy. To address this problem we developed an extension to the autologistic approach by calculating the autocovariate on SAC in residuals (the RAC approach). Performance of the new approach was tested on simulated data with a known spatial structure and on strongly autocorrelated mangrove species’ distribution data collected in northern Australia. The RAC approach was implemented as generalized linear models (GLMs) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models. We found that the BRT models with only environmental explanatory variables can account for some SAC, but applying the standard autologistic or RAC approaches further reduced SAC in model residuals and substantially improved model predictive performance. The RAC approach showed stronger inferential performance than the standard autologistic approach, as parameter estimates were more accurate and statistically significant variables were accurately identified. The new RAC approach presented here has the potential to account for spatial autocorrelation while maintaining strong predictive and inferential performance, and can be implemented across a range of modelling approaches.     

Bayesian analysis of binary prediction tree models for retrospectively sampled outcomes

Classification tree models are flexible analysis tools which have the ability to evaluate interactions among predictors as well as generate predictions for responses of interest. We describe Bayesian analysis of a specific class of tree models in which binary response data arise from a retrospective case-control design. We are also particularly interested in problems with potentially very many candidate predictors. This scenario is common in studies concerning gene expression data, which is a key motivating example context. Innovations here include the introduction of tree models that explicitly address and incorporate the retrospective design, and the use of nonparametric Bayesian models involving Dirichlet process priors on the distributions of predictor variables. The model specification influences the generation of trees through Bayes' factor based tests of association that determine significant binary partitions of nodes during a process of forward generation of trees. We describe this constructive process and discuss questions of generating and combining multiple trees via Bayesian model averaging for prediction. Additional discussion of parameter selection and sensitivity is given in the context of an example which concerns prediction of breast tumour status utilizing high-dimensional gene expression data; the example demonstrates the exploratory/explanatory uses of such models as well as their primary utility in prediction. Shortcomings of the approach and comparison with alternative tree modelling algorithms are also discussed, as are issues of modelling and computational extensions.     

Is more data always better? A simulation study of benefits and limitations of integrated distribution models

Species distribution models are popular and widely applied ecological tools. Recent increases in data availability have led to opportunities and challenges for species distribution modelling. Each data source has different qualities, determined by how it was collected. As several data sources can inform on a single species, ecologists have often analysed just one of the data sources, but this loses information, as some data sources are discarded. Integrated distribution models (IDMs) were developed to enable inclusion of multiple datasets in a single model, whilst accounting for different data collection protocols. This is advantageous because it allows efficient use of all data available, can improve estimation and account for biases in data collection. What is not yet known is when integrating different data sources does not bring advantages. Here, for the first time, we explore the potential limits of IDMs using a simulation study integrating a spatially biased, opportunistic, presence-only dataset with a structured, presence–absence dataset. We explore four scenarios based on real ecological problems; small sample sizes, low levels of detection probability, correlations between covariates and a lack of knowledge of the drivers of bias in data collection. For each scenario we ask; do we see improvements in parameter estimation or the accuracy of spatial pattern prediction in the IDM versus modelling either data source alone? We found integration alone was unable to correct for spatial bias in presence-only data. Including a covariate to explain bias or adding a flexible spatial term improved IDM performance beyond single dataset models, with the models including a flexible spatial term producing the most accurate and robust estimates. Increasing the sample size of presence–absence data and having no correlated covariates also improved estimation. These results demonstrate under which conditions integrated models provide benefits over modelling single data sources.     

Multiple imputation for missing values through conditional Semiparametric odds ratio models

Multiple imputation is a practically useful approach to handling incompletely observed data in statistical analysis. Parameter estimation and inference based on imputed full data have been made easy by Rubin's rule for result combination. However, creating proper imputation that accommodates flexible models for statistical analysis in practice can be very challenging. We propose an imputation framework that uses conditional semiparametric odds ratio models to impute the missing values. The proposed imputation framework is more flexible and robust than the imputation approach based on the normal model. It is a compatible framework in comparison to the approach based on fully conditionally specified models. The proposed algorithms for multiple imputation through the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach can be straightforwardly carried out. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed approach performs better than existing, commonly used imputation approaches. The proposed approach is applied to imputing missing values in bone fracture data.     

Assessing temporal scales and patterns in time series: Comparing methods based on redundancy analysis

Time-series modelling techniques are powerful tools for studying temporal scaling structures and dynamics present in ecological and other complex systems and are gaining popularity for assessing resilience quantitatively. Among other methods, canonical ordinations based on redundancy analysis are increasingly used for determining temporal scaling patterns that are inherent in ecological data. However, modelling outcomes and thus inference about ecological dynamics and resilience may vary depending on the approaches used. In this study, we compare the statistical performance, logical consistency and information content of two approaches: (i) asymmetric eigenvector maps (AEM) that account for linear trends and (ii) symmetric distance-based Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM), which requires detrending of raw data to remove linear trends prior to analysis. Our comparison is done using long-term water quality data (25 years) from three Swedish lakes. This data set therefore provides the opportunity for assessing how the modelling approach used affects performance and inference in time series modelling. We found that AEM models had consistently more explanatory power than MEM, and in two out of three lakes AEM extracted one more temporal scale than MEM. The scale-specific patterns detected by AEM and MEM were uncorrelated. Also individual water quality variables explaining these patterns differed between methods, suggesting that inferences about systems dynamics are dependent on modelling approach. These findings suggest that AEM might be more suitable for assessing dynamics in time series analysis compared to MEM when temporal trends are relevant. The AEM approach is logically consistent with temporal autocorrelation where earlier conditions can influence later conditions but not vice versa. The symmetric MEM approach, which ignores the asymmetric nature of time, might be suitable for addressing specific questions about the importance of correlations in fluctuation patterns where there are no confounding elements of linear trends or a need to assess causality.