Projected migrations of southern Indian Ocean albatrosses as a response to climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is altering the geographical distribution and regular movements of species. Highly-mobile pelagic seabirds, such as albatrosses, are particularly threatened by human activities, such as fisheries bycatch. Predicting the impact of climate change on how these animals roam the ocean is an important step towards making informed conservation decisions. In this study, we used a mechanistic model of migratory movements to predict how the migration of albatross species that breed in the southern Indian Ocean may change between now and the end of the century. The model is able to generate non-breeding movement patterns of albatrosses that correspond to empirical patterns from tracking data, thus providing confidence in the ability of the model to make future predictions. We projected the model using environmental conditions for 2100 based on a scenario assuming high emissions (IPCC RCP 8.5). Overall, we found very little projected change in the non-breeding distribution of albatrosses compared to the present. Some change, however, is predicted for large albatrosses, which, due to their size, are more affected by wind, and are projected to migrate further eastwards in the future scenario. These results contrast with previous analyses focusing on the breeding distribution that used statistical modelling, such as habitat and species distributions models, and predicted poleward shifts in geographical distributions of various seabird species including albatrosses. Therefore, it highlights the need for formal comparison of predicted changes in distribution during different phases of the annual cycle of the albatrosses and/or integration of the different approaches. Our analysis also predicts that the overlap of albatrosses with Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) during the non-breeding season will remain similar in 2100 compared to today. This implies that large-scale by-catch mitigation measures implemented through fisheries management organisations will remain important over the next hundred years of climate change.     

Dynamic habitat models: using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch

Fisheries bycatch is a recognized threat to marine megafauna. Addressing bycatch of pelagic species however is challenging owing to the dynamic nature of marine environments and vagility of these organisms. In order to assess the potential for species to overlap with fisheries, we propose applying dynamic habitat models to determine relative probabilities of species occurrence for specific oceanographic conditions. We demonstrate this approach by modelling habitats for Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) using telemetry data and relating their occurrence probabilities to observations of Hawaii-based longline fisheries in 1997-2000. We found that modelled habitat preference probabilities of black-footed albatrosses were high within some areas of the fishing range of the Hawaiian fleet and such preferences were important in explaining bycatch occurrence. Conversely, modelled habitats of Laysan albatrosses overlapped little with Hawaii-based longline fisheries and did little to explain the bycatch of this species. Estimated patterns of albatross habitat overlap with the Hawaiian fleet corresponded to bycatch observations: black-footed albatrosses were more frequently caught in this fishery despite being 10 times less abundant than Laysan albatrosses. This case study demonstrates that dynamic habitat models based on telemetry data may help to project interactions with pelagic animals relative to environmental features and that such an approach can serve as a tool to guide conservation and management decisions.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Combined impacts of longline fisheries and climate on the persistence of the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedia amsterdamensis

Incidental capture of seabirds in longline fishing gear is a central issue in the conservation of many long-lived marine species. Despite growing evidence of climate-induced effects on population trends of long-lived species, climate change remains generally overlooked in most risk assessments of seabirds. Because variation in climate may interact with the detrimental effects of bycatch, considering climate is of great importance, especially in the context of ongoing global warming. This paper examines the combined effects of bycatch and climate change on the persistence of one of the world's rarest birds, the Amsterdam Albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis , which has a single population in the upland plateau of Amsterdam Island (Southeast Indian Ocean). Using continuous monitoring from 1983 onwards, we first estimated the relationship between climate and the species' demographic parameters. We then built a stochastic matrix population model to estimate the population growth rate and the probability that the population declines below the level recorded in 1983 of nine breeding pairs under different scenarios involving the joint effects of additional mortality caused by longline fisheries and climate change. The results suggest that the demography of the Amsterdam Albatross is influenced by climate in both breeding and wintering grounds and that these relationships may to some extent compensate for the impact of additive bycatch mortality. However, these compensatory effects would be negligible if the annual additional mortality exceeds around six individuals per year, suggesting that the resumption of longline fishery in the foraging range of the Amsterdam Albatross would rapidly put this species at risk of extinction.     

Molecular provenance analysis for shy and white-capped albatrosses killed by fisheries interactions in Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa

Shy and white-capped albatrosses, Thalassarche cauta and T. steadi, respectively, are phenotypically similar and are known to suffer fisheries-related bycatch mortality across their foraging range. Assessments of the extent or scale of impact of bycatch mortality on these species have previously been precluded by difficulties identifying bycatch carcasses to species level. In this study, a fast and simple molecular test based on a single nucleotide polymorphism in mtDNA of shy and white-capped albatrosses was used to determine the species composition of fisheries bycatch carcasses recovered from Australian, New Zealand, and South African waters. The only area where bycatch mortality of both species co-occurred was in Tasmanian waters; in all other zones the bycatch was exclusively comprised of white-capped albatrosses. Genotypic provenance assignment tests of shy albatrosses, a species with significant genetic structure between island colonies, correctly assigned 72% to their island of origin. These data are the first to provide insight into the relative vulnerability of shy and white-capped albatrosses to bycatch mortality across their foraging range, and to establish the vast differences in the at-sea distributions of these two species.     

Longline Fisheries and Foraging Distribution of Flesh-Footed Shearwaters in Eastern Australia

ABSTRACT Incidental seabird mortality associated with bycatch during longline commercial fishing is a conservation concern. An initial step to estimating likelihood of seabird bycatch and conceiving conservation strategies is determining amount of overlap between foraging birds and commercial fishing effort, identifying oceanographic features associated with foraging birds, and quantifying dive characteristics. We tracked 24 adult flesh-footed shearwaters (Puffinus carneipes) breeding on Lord Howe Island located east of Australia during incubation and early and late chick-rearing periods from 6 January to 17 April 2005. At-sea foraging distribution of flesh-footed shearwaters was primarily confined within the jurisdictional Australian Fishing Zone. Foraging was strongly associated with sea-surface temperature >24°C. Spatial and temporal overlap of longline fishing with foraging shearwaters varied throughout the breeding season, but was greatest (63% overlap) during early chick-rearing. Mean maximum distance reached from the breeding colony during a foraging event was 804 km (SD = 280) from Lord Howe Island. Foraging behavior was strongly diurnal, with 91% of dives occurring during daylight, and most dives (77%) were <5 m. Given that longline fishing and flesh-footed shearwaters overlap substantially, the Australian Fisheries Management Authority should consider implementing additional regulations to further reduce bycatch. Conservation strategies such as setting longlines at nights may reduce flesh-footed shearwater bycatch.     

Bycatch quotas in the Gulf of Mexico shrimp trawl fishery: can they work?

Bycatch of unwanted, prohibited, or protected species is a problem in most commercial fisheries. Trawl fisheries are particularly prone to bycatch problems because trawls are not species-selective. In this paper, I review the history of finfish bycatch research in the Gulf of Mexico shrimp trawl fishery and explore the use of quotas to reduce finfish bycatch by examining four fisheries that currently use bycatch quotas: (1) the arrow squid trawl fishery of New Zealand, which uses fleet bycatch quotas for sea lion bycatch, (2) the Alaskan groundfish trawl fisheries, which use fleet quotas under a vessel incentive program for prohibited species, (3) the groundfish trawl fishery of British Columbia, Canada which uses individual vessel bycatch quotas for prohibited species, and (4) the multi-species trawl fisheries of New Zealand, which use catch balancing, or individual transferable quotas, for most commercially landed species. Based on the bycatch quota experiences in these fisheries, elements of successful bycatch quota programs include: (1) individual accountability, in the form of individual or cooperative bycatch quotas, rather than fleet quotas, (2) 100% observer coverage, (3) relatively small, manageable fleets, (4) limited landing ports that can be easily monitored, particularly if observer coverage is incomplete, (5) reliable enforcement, (6) penalties that are true disincentives, and (7) some flexibility in the system for fishermen to have alternatives to manage their bycatch. The Gulf of Mexico shrimp trawl fishery, with an estimated 20,000 licensed boats, is currently too large for individual bycatch quotas to be practical, although individual or cooperative bycatch quotas would be excellent strategies for reducing the bycatch of a smaller fleet. Mobile closed areas might be beneficial for reducing the bycatch of particular species, but these short-term closures would require real-time monitoring of bycatch rates and vessel monitoring systems on all vessels. However, under any management regime, incentives and/or rigorously enforced disincentives are the key to successful bycatch reduction.     

Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses,petrels and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change

Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans, there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (black‐browed albatross Thalassarche melanophris, grey‐headed albatross T. chrysostoma, northern giant petrel Macronectes halli, southern giant petrel M. giganteus, Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena, wandering albatross D. exulans and white‐chinned petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis, and on fishing effort in two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high‐bycatch rates), to model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry, chlorophyll‐a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed) through ensemble species distribution models. We then projected these distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that are already over‐fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase their overlap with fisheries where there is a high‐bycatch risk. Under such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and increases in bycatch risk will require much‐improved fisheries management in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline.     

A bright spot analysis of inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change: learning about adaptation from small successes

Inland recreational fisheries have social, economic, and ecological importance worldwide but these fisheries are increasingly challenged by the diverse effects of climate change. Coupled with other anthropogenic stressors, climate change has contributed to declines in freshwater biodiversity of greater severity than those observed across marine or terrestrial taxa. At a macro level, inland fisheries are experiencing declines. There are, however, a number of success stories, or ‘bright spots,’ in inland recreational fisheries management, where innovative approaches are leading to increases in social and ecological well-being in the face of climate change. Cases such as these are important sources of inspiration and learning about adaptation to climate and environmental change. In this article, we analyze 11 examples of such ‘bright spots’ drawn from multiple jurisdictions around the world from which we extracted lessons that might apply to fisheries management challenges beyond the region and context of each case. Collectively, these bright spots highlight adaptive initiatives that allow for recreational fisheries management to mitigate to stressors associated with current and future climate change. Examples identified include community-based restoration projects, collaborative and adaptive approaches to short-term fisheries closures, transdisciplinary large-scale conservation projects, and conservation-minded efforts by individuals and communities. By highlighting examples of ‘small wins’ within inland recreational fisheries management, this review contributes to the idea that a ‘positive future’ for inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change is possible and highlights potential strategies to adapt to current and future climate scenarios.

     

Signals of large scale climate drivers,hatchery enhancement,and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co‐occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage‐structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density‐dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age‐specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production.     

Albatrosses Following Fishing Vessels: How Badly Hooked Are They on an Easy Meal?

Fisheries have major impacts on seabirds, both by changing food availability and by causing direct mortality of birds during trawling and longline setting. However, little is known about the nature and the spatial-temporal extent of the interactions between individual birds and vessels. By studying a system in which we had fine-scale data on bird movements and activity, and near real-time information on vessel distribution, we provide new insights on the association of a threatened albatross with fisheries. During early chick-rearing, black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris from two different colonies (separated by only 75 km) showed significant differences in the degree of association with fisheries, despite being nearly equidistant to the Falklands fishing fleet. Most foraging trips from either colony did not bring tracked individuals close to vessels, and proportionally little time and foraging effort was spent near ships. Nevertheless, a few individuals repeatedly visited fishing vessels, which may indicate they specialise on fisheries-linked food sources and so are potentially more vulnerable to bycatch. The evidence suggests that this population has little reliance on fisheries discards at a critical stage of its nesting cycle, and hence measures to limit fisheries waste on the Patagonian shelf that also reduce vessel attractiveness and the risk of incidental mortality, would be of high overall conservation benefit.     

Biodiversity Offsets: A Cost-Effective Interim Solution to Seabird Bycatch in Fisheries?

The concept of biodiversity offsets is well established as an approach to environmental management. The concept has been suggested for environmental management in fisheries, particularly in relation to the substantial numbers of non-target species--seabirds in particular--caught and killed as incidental bycatch during fishing activities. Substantial areas of fisheries are being closed to protect these species at great cost to the fishing industry. However, other actions may be taken to offset the impact of fishing on these populations at lower cost to the fishing industry. This idea, however, has attracted severe criticism largely as it does not address the underlying externality problems created by the fishing sector, namely seabird fishing mortality. In this paper, we re-examine the potential role of compensatory mitigation as a fisheries management tool, although from the perspective of being an interim management measure while more long-lasting solutions to the problem are found. We re-model an example previously examined by both proponents and opponents of the approach, namely the cost effectiveness of rodent control relative to fishery area closures for the conservation of a seabird population adversely affected by an Australian tuna fishery. We find that, in the example being examined, invasive rodent eradication is at least 10 times more cost effective than area closures. We conclude that, while this does not solve the actual bycatch problem, it may provide breathing space for both the seabird species and the industry to find longer term means of reducing bycatch.     

Demographic parameters of black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris from the Falkland Islands

Black-browed albatrosses Thalassarche melanophris are currently classified as globally endangered. The most important populations of this species are believed to be declining due to, amongst other factors, unsustainable levels of incidental mortality in fishing gear. However, detailed demographic data are lacking for several critical populations, including the largest of all, nesting in the Falkland Islands. Here, we present data from the first Falkland Islands detailed demographic study (at New Island) and show that, from 2003 to 2009, the mean adult survival probability was 0.942 (95% CI: 0.930–0.952). Nesting frequency of adults is amongst the highest recorded for Thalassarche albatrosses and breeding success (0.564 chicks per egg) is within normal values. The nesting population in the intensively studied plots experienced an increase of 4% per year from 2004 to 2009. These results indicate that the Falklands population may not be as threatened as previously supposed, although studies from more sites and a longer time series are needed to confirm or refute this. The high survival rates may partly reflect recent efforts to mitigate bycatch made by the Falkland Islands and other fisheries in the region. The reinforcement of such initiatives may be critical to buffer the black-browed albatross population against ecosystem shifts and natural disasters (such as harmful algal blooms) that will likely become more frequent with ongoing global changes.     

Varying demographic impacts of different fisheries on three Mediterranean seabird species

Fisheries have an enormous economic importance, but reconciling their socio‐economic features with the conservation and sustainability of marine ecosystems presents major challenges. Bycatch mortality from fisheries is clearly among the most serious global threats for marine ecosystems, affecting a wide range of top predators. Recent estimates report ca. 200,000 seabirds killed annually by bycatch in European waters. However, there is an urgent need to rigorously estimate actual mortality rates and quantify effects of bycatch on populations. The Mediterranean Sea is one of the most impacted regions. Here, we estimate for the first time both bycatch mortality rates and their population‐level effects on three endemic and vulnerable Mediterranean taxa: Scopoli's shearwater, Mediterranean shag, and Audouin's gull, that die in different types of fishing gears: longlines, gillnets and sport trolling, respectively. We use multi‐event capture–recapture modelling to estimate crucial demographic parameters, including the probabilities of dying in different fishing gears. We then build stochastic demography models to forecast the viability of the populations under different management scenarios. Longline bycatch was particularly severe for adults of Scopoli's shearwaters and Audouin's gulls (ca. 28% and 23% of total mortality, respectively) and also for immature gulls (ca. 90% of mortality). Gillnets had a lower impact, but were still responsible for ca. 9% of juvenile mortality on shags, whereas sport trolling only slightly influenced total mortality in gulls. Bycatch mortality has high population‐level impacts in all three species, with shearwaters having the highest extinction risk under current mortality rates. Different life‐history traits and compensatory demographic mechanisms between the three species are probably influencing the different bycatch impact: for shearwaters, urgent conservation actions are required to ensure the viability of their populations. Results will be very useful for guiding future seabird conservation policies and moving towards an ecosystem‐based approach to sustainable fisheries management.     

The changing focus of marine mammal conservation

Overexploitation has been the principal focus of marine mammal conservation. Less attention has been paid to bycatch in commercial fisheries; entanglement in lost and discarded fishing gear; food shortages owing to climate change and/or overharvesting of essential prey; point and non-point source pollution; and diseases. Also, relatively little attention has been paid to situations where marine mammals pose threats to the existence and human uses of other marine species. As overexploitation is addressed, focus must be shifted to these problems that are no less significant.     

Using population viability analysis to examine the potential long-term impact of fisheries bycatch on protected species

Fisheries bycatch is recognised as the dominant anthropogenic threat facing many protected species globally. Estimates of total bycatch are often associated with wide confidence intervals as a result of limited coverage by on-board observers. This makes it difficult for managers to assess risk and design effective management plans. Here, we present a case study of grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) bycatch in static net fisheries across Irish waters, where potentially unsustainable bycatch levels have been reported with typically wide confidence intervals. We used Population Viability Analysis (PVA) to explore potential bycatch scenarios at a national level in order to inform future monitoring and management efforts; including (i) a baseline scenario where the probability of seals becoming bycaught was independent of age and sex; (ii) probability was biased towards juvenile, male, or female seals; (iii) there was net immigration of seals from outside of the national population; and (iv) colony-specific bycatch rates were applied to assess the relative vulnerability of the major grey seal breeding colonies to bycatch mortality. Results demonstrated that (i) higher levels of bycatch reduced population growth, with bycatch of 800 seals per year reducing the national population by 99% over 100 years; (ii) population viability was most sensitive to bycatch mortality of female seals, and more robust to juvenile or male mortality; (iii) recruitment of 500 seals per year prevented population decline despite a worst-case bycatch scenario of 800 seals bycaught per year; (iv) colonies in the south and southwest were the first to show signs of decline under increasing bycatch pressure. PVA provides a clear justification for improved monitoring of seal bycatch to obtain more precise bycatch estimates, and highlights the need for future studies to identify appropriate grey seal management units.     

Sexual Segregation in Juvenile New Zealand Sea Lion Foraging Ranges: Implications for Intraspecific Competition,Population Dynamics and Conservation

Sexual segregation (sex differences in spatial organisation and resource use) is observed in a large range of taxa. Investigating causes for sexual segregation is vital for understanding population dynamics and has important conservation implications, as sex differences in foraging ecology may affect vulnerability to area-specific human activities. Although behavioural ecologists have proposed numerous hypotheses for this phenomenon, the underlying causes of sexual segregation are poorly understood. We examined the size-dimorphism and niche divergence hypotheses as potential explanations for sexual segregation in the New Zealand (NZ) sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri), a nationally critical, declining species impacted by trawl fisheries. We used satellite telemetry and linear mixed effects models to investigate sex differences in the foraging ranges of juvenile NZ sea lions. Male trip distances and durations were almost twice as long as female trips, with males foraging over the Auckland Island shelf and in further locations than females. Sex was the most important variable in trip distance, maximum distance travelled from study site, foraging cycle duration and percent time at sea whereas mass and age had small effects on these characteristics. Our findings support the predictions of the niche divergence hypothesis, which suggests that sexual segregation acts to decrease intraspecific resource competition. As a consequence of sexual segregation in foraging ranges, female foraging grounds had proportionally double the overlap with fisheries operations than males. This distribution exposes female juvenile NZ sea lions to a greater risk of resource competition and bycatch from fisheries than males, which can result in higher female mortality. Such sex-biased mortality could impact population dynamics, because female population decline can lead to decreased population fecundity. Thus, effective conservation and management strategies must take into account sex differences in foraging behaviour, as well as differential threat-risk to external impacts such as fisheries bycatch.     

Environment outweighs the effects of fishing in regulating demersal community structure in an exploited marine ecosystem

Global climate change has already caused bottom temperatures of coastal marine ecosystems to increase worldwide. These ecosystems face many pressures, of which fishing is one of the most important. While consequences of global warming on commercial species are studied extensively, the importance of the increase in bottom temperature and of variation in fishing effort is more rarely considered together in these exploited ecosystems. Using a 17 year time series from an international bottom trawl survey, we investigated covariations of an entire demersal ecosystem (101 taxa) with the environment in the Celtic Sea. Our results showed that over the past two decades, biotic communities in the Celtic Sea were likely controlled more by environmental variables than fisheries, probably due to its long history of exploitation. At the scale of the entire zone, relations between taxa and the environment remained stable over the years, but at a local scale, in the center of the Celtic Sea, dynamics were probably driven by interannual variation in temperature. Fishing was an important factor structuring species assemblages at the beginning of the time series (2000) but decreased in importance after 2009. This was most likely caused by a change in spatial distribution of fishing effort, following a change in targeted taxa from nephrops to deeper water anglerfish that did not covary with fishing effort. Increasing bottom temperatures could induce additional changes in the coming years, notably in the cold‐water commercial species cod, hake, nephrops, and American plaice. We showed that analyzing covariation is an effective way to screen a large number of taxa and highlight those that may be most susceptible to future simultaneous increases in temperature and changes in exploitation pattern by fisheries. This information can be particularly relevant for ecosystem assessments.     

Climate change and commercial fishing practices codetermine survival of a long-lived seabird

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines—path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models—to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.     

The Seascape of Demersal Fish Nursery Areas in the North Mediterranean Sea,a First Step Towards the Implementation of Spatial Planning for Trawl Fisheries

The identification of nursery grounds and other essential fish habitats of exploited stocks is a key requirement for the development of spatial conservation planning aimed at reducing the adverse impact of fishing on the exploited populations and ecosystems. The reduction in juvenile mortality is particularly relevant in the Mediterranean and is considered as one of the main prerequisites for the future sustainability of trawl fisheries. The distribution of nursery areas of 11 important commercial species of demersal fish and shellfish was analysed in the European Union Mediterranean waters using time series of bottom trawl survey data with the aim of identifying the most persistent recruitment areas. A high interspecific spatial overlap between nursery areas was mainly found along the shelf break of many different sectors of the Northern Mediterranean indicating a high potential for the implementation of conservation measures. Overlap of the nursery grounds with existing spatial fisheries management measures and trawl fisheries restricted areas was also investigated. Spatial analyses revealed considerable variation depending on species and associated habitat/depth preferences with increased protection seen in coastal nurseries and minimal protection seen for deeper nurseries (e.g. Parapenaeus longirostris 6%). This is partly attributed to existing environmental policy instruments (e.g. Habitats Directive and Mediterranean Regulation EC 1967/2006) aiming at minimising impacts on coastal priority habitats such as seagrass, coralligenous and maerl beds. The new knowledge on the distribution and persistence of demersal nurseries provided in this study can support the application of spatial conservation measures, such as the designation of no-take Marine Protected Areas in EU Mediterranean waters and their inclusion in a conservation network. The establishment of no-take zones will be consistent with the objectives of the Common Fisheries Policy applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management and with the requirements of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive to maintain or achieve seafloor integrity and good environmental status.