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1.

Background

Vaccination against the oncogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 will reduce the prevalence of these types, thereby also reducing cervical cancer risk in unvaccinated women. This (measurable) herd effect will be limited at first, but is expected to increase over time. At a certain herd immunity level, tailoring screening to vaccination status may no longer be worth the additional effort. Moreover, uniform screening may be the only viable option. We therefore investigated at what level of herd immunity it is cost-effective to also reduce screening intensity in unvaccinated women.

Methods

We used the MISCAN-Cervix model to determine the optimal screening strategy for a pre-vaccination population and for vaccinated women (~80% decreased risk), assuming a willingness-to-pay of €50,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. We considered HPV testing, cytology testing and co-testing and varied the start age of screening, the screening interval and the number of lifetime screens. We then calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of screening unvaccinated women with the strategy optimized to the pre-vaccination population as compared to with the strategy optimized to vaccinated women, assuming different herd immunity levels.

Results

Primary HPV screening with cytology triage was the optimal strategy, with 8 lifetime screens for the pre-vaccination population and 3 for vaccinated women. The ICER of screening unvaccinated women 8 times instead of 3 was €28,085 in the absence of herd immunity. At around 50% herd immunity, the ICER reached €50,000.

Conclusion

From a herd immunity level of 50% onwards, screening intensity based on the pre-vaccination risk level becomes cost-ineffective for unvaccinated women. Reducing the screening intensity of uniform screening may then be considered.  相似文献   

2.

Background

A substantial proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States remain unvaccinated against hepatitis B. We sought to understand which factors are associated with vaccination among HIV-negative MSM.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data were from a 2010 web-based survey of adult MSM. We calculated the prevalence of self-reported hepatitis B vaccination among 1,052 HIV-negative or HIV-untested men who knew their hepatitis B vaccination status, and used multivariate logistic regression to determine associated factors. 679 (64.5%) MSM reported being vaccinated. Younger men were more likely to report being vaccinated than older men, and there was a significant interaction between age and history of hepatitis B testing. Men with at least some college education were at least 2.1 times as likely to be vaccinated as men with a high school education or less (95% CI = 1.4–3.1). Provider recommendation for vaccination (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI = 2.4–7.4) was also significantly associated with receipt of vaccination.

Conclusions/Significance

Providers should assess sexual histories of male patients and offer those patients with male sex partners testing for hepatitis infection and vaccinate susceptible patients. There may be particular opportunities for screening and vaccination among older and more socioeconomically disadvantaged MSM.  相似文献   

3.

Background and Aims

Healthcare workers (HCW) have an increased risk of exposure to infectious diseases and are a potential source of infections for their patients. The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has no national policy regarding HCW vaccinations and routine vaccination coverage is low within the general population. This cross-sectional serostudy determines the level of exposure and risk of infection in Lao HCW against 6 vaccine preventable diseases and hepatitis C.

Methods

1128 HCW were recruited from 3 central, 2 provincial and 8 district hospitals. Sera were tested by ELISA for the presence of antibodies and antigens to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, measles, rubella, varicella zoster, tetanus and diphtheria.

Results

Only 53.1% of the HCW had protective anti-hepatitis B surface antigen antibodies (anti-HBs) with 48.8% having anti-hepatitis B core antibodies (anti-HBc), indicating previous exposure and 8.0% were hepatitis B surface antigen carriers. 3.9% were hepatitis C seropositive. Measles and rubella antibodies were detected in 95.4% and 86.2% of the HCW, with 11.9% of females being unprotected against rubella. Antibodies against varicella zoster, tetanus and diphtheria were detected in 95%, 78.8% and 55.3%, respectively. Seroprevalence varied according to age, gender and number of children.

Conclusion

An unacceptably high proportion of Lao HCW remain susceptible to infection with hepatitis B, diphtheria, tetanus and rubella. Furthermore, a high number of healthcare workers are chronically infected with hepatitis B and C viruses. These data emphasize the need for a robust HCW vaccination policy in addition to increased awareness within this subpopulation.  相似文献   

4.

Introduction

The Chief Medical Officer for England recommends that healthcare workers have a seasonal influenza vaccination in an attempt to protect both patients and NHS staff. Despite this, many healthcare workers do not have a seasonal influenza vaccination. Social network analysis is a well-established research approach that looks at individuals in the context of their social connections. We examine the effects of social networks on influenza vaccination decision and disease dynamics.

Methods

We used a social network analysis approach to look at vaccination distribution within the network of the Lancaster Medical School students and combined these data with the students’ beliefs about vaccination behaviours. We then developed a model which simulated influenza outbreaks to study the effects of preferentially vaccinating individuals within this network.

Results

Of the 253 eligible students, 217 (86%) provided relational data, and 65% of responders had received a seasonal influenza vaccination. Students who were vaccinated were more likely to think other medical students were vaccinated. However, there was no clustering of vaccinated individuals within the medical student social network. The influenza simulation model demonstrated that vaccination of well-connected individuals may have a disproportional effect on disease dynamics.

Conclusions

This medical student population exhibited vaccination coverage levels similar to those seen in other healthcare groups but below recommendations. However, in this population, a lack of vaccination clustering might provide natural protection from influenza outbreaks. An individual student’s perception of the vaccination coverage amongst their peers appears to correlate with their own decision to vaccinate, but the directionality of this relationship is not clear. When looking at the spread of disease within a population it is important to include social structures alongside vaccination data. Social networks influence disease epidemiology and vaccination campaigns designed with information from social networks could be a future target for policy makers.  相似文献   

5.

Background

Japan has not succeeded in reducing the annual number of new HIV-infected patients, although the prevalence of HIV infection is low (0.02%).

Methods

A single-center observational study was conducted at the largest HIV clinic in Tokyo, which treats 15% of the total patients in Japan, to determine the reasons for having diagnostic tests in newly infected individuals. HIV-infected patients who visited our clinic for the first time between 2011 and 2014 were analyzed.

Results

The 598 study patients comprised one-third of the total reported number of new patients in Tokyo during the study period. 76% were Japanese MSM. The reasons for being tested which led to the diagnosis was voluntary testing in 32%, existing diseases in 53% (AIDS-defining diseases in 22%, sexually transmitted infections (STI) in 8%, diseases other than AIDS or STIs in 23%) and routine pre-surgery or on admission screening in 15%. 52% and 74% of the study patients and patients presented with AIDS, respectively, had never been tested. The median CD4 count in patients with history of previous testing (315/μL) was significantly higher than that of patients who had never been tested (203/μL, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Only 32% of the newly HIV diagnosed patients were diagnosed because of voluntary testing, and 53% were diagnosed due to presence of other diseases. These results remain unchanged from our previous report 10 years earlier (2000–2004) on newly diagnosed patients at the same clinic. HIV testing has not been widely used by newly diagnosed patients in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  相似文献   

6.
7.

Background

The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries.

Methods

We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally.

Results

The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996.

Conclusions

Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.  相似文献   

8.

Introduction

Zimbabwe has a high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) burden. It is therefore important to scale up HIV-testing and counseling (HTC) as a gateway to HIV prevention, treatment and care.

Objective

To determine factors associated with being HIV-tested among adult men and women in Zimbabwe.

Methods

Secondary analysis was done using data from 7,313 women and 6,584 men who completed interviewer-administered questionnaires and provided blood specimens for HIV testing during the Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) 2010–11. Factors associated with ever being HIV-tested were determined using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

HIV-testing was higher among women compared to men (61% versus 39%). HIV-infected respondents were more likely to be tested compared to those who were HIV-negative for both men [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.27–1.84)] and women [AOR = 1.42; 95% CI (1.20–1.69)]. However, only 55% and 74% of these HIV-infected men and women respectively had ever been tested. Among women, visiting antenatal care (ANC) [AOR = 5.48, 95% CI (4.08–7.36)] was the most significant predictor of being tested whilst a novel finding for men was higher odds of testing among those reporting a sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the past 12 months [AOR = 1.86, 95%CI (1.26–2.74)]. Among men, the odds of ever being tested increased with age ≥20 years, particularly those 45–49 years [AOR = 4.21; 95% CI (2.74–6.48)] whilst for women testing was highest among those aged 25–29 years [AOR = 2.01; 95% CI (1.63–2.48)]. Other significant factors for both sexes were increasing education level, higher wealth status and currently/formerly being in union.

Conclusions

There remains a high proportion of undiagnosed HIV-infected persons and hence there is a need for innovative strategies aimed at increasing HIV-testing, particularly for men and in lower-income and lower-educated populations. Promotion of STI services can be an important gateway for testing more men whilst ANC still remains an important option for HIV-testing among pregnant women.  相似文献   

9.

Introduction

There is limited research on Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) in females. Although the empathy construct has been examined thoroughly in autism, little attention has been paid to empathy in adult women with this condition or to gender differences within the disorder.

Objective

Self-reported empathy in adult women with ASD was examined and compared to that of typically developed men and women as well as to men with this condition.

Methods

Online databases were searched for articles investigating self-reported empathy among adult women with ASD. Only six studies comparing women to men were identified.

Results

All studies found women with an ASD to report lower levels of empathy than typically developed women, and typically developed men, but similar levels to men with this condition.

Conclusion

The self-reported empathic ability of women diagnosed with ASD resembles that of their male counterparts most closely; they show a hypermasculinisation in empathy. This is particularly surprising considering the large gender difference in empathy in the general population.

Discussion

One of the limitations of this review is that the current diagnostic criteria for ASD are oriented towards male-specific behaviour and fail to integrate gender specific characteristics. Hence, women diagnosed with ASD are likely to be at the male end of the continuum. The suggested hypermasculinisation of women on the spectrum, as evident from this review, may therefore be exaggerated due to a selection bias.  相似文献   

10.

Objective

Detailed data are lacking on influenza burden in the United Kingdom (UK). The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden associated with influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United Kingdom stratified by age, risk and influenza vaccination status.

Methods

This retrospective, cross-sectional, exploratory, observational study used linked data from the General Practice Research Database and the Hospital Episode Statistics databases to estimate resource use and cost associated with ILI in the UK.

Results

Data were included from 156,193 patients with ≥1 general practitioner visit with ILI. There were 21,518 high-risk patients, of whom 12,514 (58.2%) were vaccinated and 9,004 (41.8%) were not vaccinated, and 134,675 low-risk patients, of whom 17,482 (13.0%) were vaccinated and 117,193 (87.0%) were not vaccinated. High-risk vaccinated patients were older (p<0.001) and had more risk conditions (p<0.001). High-risk (odds ratio [OR] 2.16) or vaccinated (OR 1.19) patients had a higher probability of >1 general practitioner visit compared with low-risk and unvaccinated patients. Patients who were high-risk and vaccinated had a reduced risk of >1 general practitioner visit (OR 0.82; p<0.001). High-risk individuals who were also vaccinated had a lower probability of ILI-related hospitalisation than individuals who were high-risk or vaccinated alone (OR 0.59). In people aged ≥65 years, the mortality rate was lower in vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals (OR 0.75). The cost of ILI-related GP visits and hospital admissions in the UK over the study period in low-risk vaccinated patients was £27,391,142 and £141,932,471, respectively. In low-risk unvaccinated patients the corresponding values were £168,318,709 and £112,534,130, respectively.

Conclusions

Although vaccination rates in target groups have increased, many people are still not receiving influenza vaccination, and the burden of ILI in the United Kingdom remains substantial. Improving influenza vaccination uptake may have the potential to reduce this burden.  相似文献   

11.

Background

Theoretical studies predict that it is not possible to eradicate a disease under voluntary vaccination because of the emergence of non-vaccinating “free-riders” when vaccination coverage increases. A central tenet of this approach is that human behaviour follows an economic model of rational choice. Yet, empirical studies reveal that vaccination decisions do not necessarily maximize individual self-interest. Here we investigate the dynamics of vaccination coverage using an approach that dispenses with payoff maximization and assumes that risk perception results from the interaction between epidemiology and cognitive biases.

Methods

We consider a behaviour-incidence model in which individuals perceive actual epidemiological risks as a function of their opinion of vaccination. As a result of confirmation bias, sceptical individuals (negative opinion) overestimate infection cost while pro-vaccines individuals (positive opinion) overestimate vaccination cost. We considered a feedback between individuals and their environment as individuals could change their opinion, and thus the way they perceive risks, as a function of both the epidemiology and the most common opinion in the population.

Results

For all parameter values investigated, the infection is never eradicated under voluntary vaccination. For moderately contagious diseases, oscillations in vaccination coverage emerge because individuals process epidemiological information differently depending on their opinion. Conformism does not generate oscillations but slows down the cultural response to epidemiological change.

Conclusion

Failure to eradicate vaccine preventable disease emerges from the model because of cognitive biases that maintain heterogeneity in how people perceive risks. Thus, assumptions of economic rationality and payoff maximization are not mandatory for predicting commonly observed dynamics of vaccination coverage. This model shows that alternative notions of rationality, such as that of ecological rationality whereby individuals use simple cognitive heuristics, offer promising new avenues for modelling vaccination behaviour.  相似文献   

12.

Background

In 2009, pregnant women were specifically targeted by a national vaccination campaign against pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus. The objectives of the COFLUPREG study, initially set up to assess the incidence of serious forms of A/H1N1 influenza, were to assess the consequences of maternal vaccination on pregnancy outcomes and maternal seroprotection at delivery.

Methods

Pregnant women, between 12 and 35 weeks of gestation, non vaccinated against A/H1N1 2009 influenza were randomly selected to be included in a prospective cohort study conducted in three maternity centers in Paris (France) during pandemic period. Blood samples were planned to assess hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody against A/H1N1 2009 influenza at inclusion and at delivery.

Results

Among the 877 pregnant women included in the study, 678 (77.3%) had serum samples both at inclusion and delivery, and 320 (36.5%) received pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza vaccine with a median interval between vaccination and delivery of 92 days (95% CI 48–134). At delivery, the proportion of women with seroprotection (HI antibodies titers against A/H1N1 2009 influenza of 1∶40 or greater) was 69.9% in vaccinated women. Of the 422 non-vaccinated women with serological data, 11 (2.6%; 95%CI: 1.3–4.6) had laboratory documented A/H1N1 2009 influenza (1 with positive PCR and 10 with serological seroconversion). None of the 877 study’s women was hospitalized for flu. No difference on pregnancy outcomes was evidenced between vaccinated women, non-vaccinated women without seroconversion and non-vaccinated women with flu.

Conclusion

Despite low vaccine coverage, incidence of pandemic flu was low in this cohort of pregnant women.No effect on pregnancy and delivery outcomes was evidenced after vaccination.  相似文献   

13.

Background

With the emergence of H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) influenza, the CDC recommended that pregnant women be one of five initial target groups to receive the 2009 monovalent H1N1 vaccine, regardless of prior infection with this influenza strain. We sought to compare the immune response of pregnant women to H1N1 infection versus vaccination and to determine the extent of passive immunity conferred to the newborn.

Methods/Findings

During the 2009-2010 influenza season, we enrolled a cohort of women who either had confirmed pH1N1 infection during pregnancy, did not have pH1N1 during pregnancy but were vaccinated against pH1N1, or did not have illness or vaccination. Maternal and umbilical cord venous blood samples were collected at delivery. Hemagglutination inhibition assays (HAI) for pH1N1 were performed. Data were analyzed using linear regression analyses. HAIs were performed for matched maternal/cord blood pairs for 16 women with confirmed pH1N1 infection, 14 women vaccinated against pH1N1, and 10 women without infection or vaccination. We found that pH1N1 vaccination and wild-type infection during pregnancy did not differ with respect to (1) HAI titers at delivery, (2) HAI antibody decay slopes over time, and (3) HAI titers in the cord blood.

Conclusions

Vaccination against pH1N1 confers a similar HAI antibody response as compared to pH1N1 infection during pregnancy, both in quantity and quality. Illness or vaccination during pregnancy confers passive immunity to the newborn.  相似文献   

14.

Objectives

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at higher risk for coinfection with hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and syphilis than the general population. HIV infection and these coinfections accelerate disease progression reciprocally. This study evaluated the prevalence and incidence of these coinfections in HIV1-positive MSM in Germany.

Materials and Methods

As part of a nationwide, multicenter, prospective cohort study of HIV-infected MSM, plasma samples collected yearly were screened for HBsAg and antibodies to HBc, HBs, HCV, and syphilis. Samples with indications of active HBV or HCV infection were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction. Prevalence and incidence of each infection and incidence rates per study participant were calculated, and incidences over 4-year time intervals compared.

Results

This study screened 5,445 samples from 1,843 MSM. Median age at HIV seroconversion was 33 years. Prevalences of active, cleared, and occult HBV, and of active/cleared HCV were 1.7%, 27.1%, 0.2%, and 8.2%, respectively, and 47.5% had been effectively vaccinated against HBV. Prevalence of antibodies to Treponema pallidum and of triple or quadruple sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were 39.6% and 18.9%, respectively. Prevalence of STI, cleared HBV, HBV vaccination, and history of syphilis differed significantly among age groups. Incidences of HBV, HCV, and syphilis were 2.51, 1.54, and 4.06 per 100 person-years, respectively. Incidences of HCV and syphilis increased over time. HCV incidence was significantly higher in MSM coinfected with syphilis and living in Berlin, and syphilis incidence was significantly higher for MSM living in Berlin.

Discussion

Despite extensive HBV vaccination campaigns, fewer than 50% of screened MSM were effectively vaccinated, with a high proportion of HIV-positive MSM coinfected with HBV. High rates of STI coinfections in HIV-positive MSM and increasing incidences emphasize the need for better tailored campaigns for HBV vaccination and STI prevention.  相似文献   

15.
16.

Background

The health transition theory argues that societal changes produce proportional changes in causes of disability and death. The aim of this study was to identify long-term changes in main causes of hospitalization in working-age population within a nation that has experienced considerable societal change.

Methodology

National trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations for the five main diagnostic categories were investigated in the data obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. The seven-cohort sample covered the period from 1976 to 2010 and consisted of 3,769,356 randomly selected Finnish residents, each cohort representing 25% sample of population aged 18 to 64 years.

Principal Findings

Over the period of 35 years, the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases decreased. Hospitalization for musculoskeletal diseases increased whereas mental and behavioral hospitalizations slightly decreased. The risk of cancer hospitalization decreased marginally in men, whereas in women an upward trend was observed.

Conclusions/Significance

A considerable health transition related to hospitalizations and a shift in the utilization of health care services of working-age men and women took place in Finland between 1976 and 2010.  相似文献   

17.

Background

To monitor the impact of human papillomavirus types 16 and 18 vaccine on HPV infection dynamics in the Netherlands, we started an ongoing study in sexually transmitted infection (STI) clinics in 2009. Here, we analyze baseline type-specific HPV DNA and HPV-specific antibody positivity rates.

Methods

We enrolled 3569 men and women, 16–24 years of age, from 14 STI clinics, and estimated genital and anal HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates of 7 main carcinogenic HPV types. Generalized estimating equations regression analyses were applied to determine risk factors for, and associations between, type-specific HPV DNA and antibody positivity.

Results

Genital HPV DNA positivity rates were higher in women than in men; anal HPV DNA was especially high in men who have sex with men (MSM). HPV antibody seropositivity rates were also highest in women and MSM. High-risk sexual behavior was predictive of both HPV DNA and antibody positivity. Despite a strong correlation in serological profiles for multiple HPV types, seropositivity was independently associated with homologous HPV DNA detection.

Conclusions

HPV DNA and antibody positivity rates are higher in women and MSM than in heterosexual men, but their association is similar across gender. This suggests a site-specific natural course of infection.  相似文献   

18.

Objective

Sarcopenia might be associated with bone fragility in elderly individuals. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of sarcopenia and its association with fragility fracture sites in elderly Chinese patients.

Methods

Patients (322 men and 435 women) aged 65–94 years and with a history of fragility fractures in the ankle, wrist, vertebrae or hip, and healthy men (n = 1263) and women (n = 1057) aged 65–92 years without a history of fractures were enrolled. Whole-body dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to analyze skeletal muscle mass index (SMI), fat mass and bone mineral density. Sarcopenia was defined as SMI less than two standard deviations below the mean of a young reference group.

Results

Sarcopenia occurrence varied with fracture location. Sarcopenia was more common in females with vertebral and hip fractures and in men with hip and ankle fractures than in the non-fracture group). Sarcopenia was significantly more prevalent in men with wrist, hip and ankle fractures than in women. SMI was correlated with BMD in different fracture groups. Logistic regression analyses revealed that lower SMI was associated with an increased risk of hip fracture both in men and women and ankle fracture in men.

Discussion

Sarcopenia may be an independent risk factor for hip and ankle fractures in men, and for hip fractures in women.  相似文献   

19.

Background

HIV prevalence varies between 0.9 and 6.5% in Ethiopia’s eleven regions. Little has been published examining the reasons for this variation.

Methods

We evaluated the relationship between HIV prevalence by region and a range of risk factors in the 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. Pearson’s correlation was used to assess the relationship between HIV prevalence and each variable.

Results

There was a strong association between HIV prevalence and three markers of sexual risk: mean lifetime number of partners (men: r = 0.87; P < 0.001; women: r = 0.60; P = 0.05); reporting sex with a non-married, non-cohabiting partner (men: r = 0.92; P < 0.001, women r = 0.93; P < 0.001); and premarital sex. Condom usage and HIV testing were positively associated with HIV prevalence, while the prevalence of circumcision, polygamy, age at sexual debut and male migration were not associated with HIV prevalence.

Conclusion

Variation in sexual behavior may contribute to the large variations in HIV prevalence by region in Ethiopia. Population-level interventions to reduce risky sexual behavior in high HIV incidence regions should be considered.  相似文献   

20.

Background

Vaccination campaigns against A/H1N1 2009 pandemic influenza virus (A/H1N1p) began in autumn 2009 in Europe, after the declaration of the pandemic at a global level. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of individuals vaccinated against A/H1N1p in Norway who were already infected (asymptomatically or symptomatically) by A/H1N1p before vaccination, using a mathematical model.

Methods

A dynamic, mechanistic, mathematical model of A/H1N1p transmission was developed for the Norwegian population. The model parameters were estimated by calibrating the model-projected number of symptomatic A/H1N1p cases to the number of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1p cases reported to the surveillance system, accounting for potential under-reporting. It was assumed in the base case that the likelihood of vaccination was independent of infection/disease state. A sensitivity analysis explored the effects of four scenarios in which current or previous symptomatic A/H1N1p infection would influence the likelihood of being vaccinated.

Results

The number of model-projected symptomatic A/H1N1p cases by week during the epidemic, accounting for under-reporting and timing, closely matched that of the laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1p cases reported to the surveillance system. The model-projected incidence of symptomatic A/H1N1p infection was 27% overall, 55% in people <10 years old and 41% in people 10–20 years old. The model-projected percentage of individuals vaccinated against A/H1N1p who were already infected with A/H1N1p before being vaccinated was 56% overall, 62% in people <10 years old and 66% in people 10–20 years old. The results were sensitive to assumptions about the independence of vaccination and infection; however, even when current or previous symptomatic A/H1N1p infection was assumed to reduce the likelihood of vaccination, the estimated percentage of individuals who were infected before vaccination remained at least 32% in all age groups.

Conclusion

This analysis suggests that over half the people vaccinated against A/H1N1p in Norway during the 2009 pandemic may already have been infected by A/H1N1p before being vaccinated.  相似文献   

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