Sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic variability within and between phases of the disturbance cycle

For species in disturbance-prone ecosystems, vital rates (survival, growth and reproduction) often vary both between and within phases of the cycle of disturbance and recovery; some of this variation is imposed by the environment, but some may represent adaptation of the life history to disturbance. Anthropogenic changes may amplify or impede these patterns of variation, and may have positive or negative effects on population growth. Using stochastic population projection matrix models, we develop stochastic elasticities (proportional derivatives of the long-run population growth rate) to gauge the population effects of three types of change in demographic variability (changes in within- and between-disturbance-phase variability and phase-specific changes). Computing these elasticities for five species of disturbance-influenced perennial plants, we pinpoint demographic rates that may reveal adaptation to disturbance, and we demonstrate that species may differ in their responses to different types of changes in demographic variability driven by climate change.     

DEMOGRAPHIC MECHANISMS DETERMINING THE DYNAMICS OF THE RELATIVE ABUNDANCE OF PHASES IN BIPHASIC LIFE CYCLES1

Studies investigating the demographic traits that drive the patterns of phase dominance (the ploidy ratio) in isomorphic biphasic life cycles have not found an integrative solution. Either fertility or survival has been suggested independently as the main driver. Here, we provide a global theoretical framework on how demographic mechanisms determine the ploidy ratio, unifying previous numerical and observational attempts at this question. The analytical solutions of both the ploidy ratio and its elasticities to model parameters of a stage/size‐structured model patterned after the life cycle of a marine alga were derived and analyzed. A complex interaction among vital rates determines the patterns of phase dominance of biphasic life cycles. Three co‐occurring processes—growth, fertility, and looping—may dominate the dynamics of the population, determining both its growth rate and ploidy ratio. Our analyses show that in species where fertility is low, the ploidy ratio is highly elastic to looping transitions (survival, breakage, and clonal growth). Consequently, the subtle morphological, ecophysiological, and biochemistry phase differences that have been reported in isomorphic life cycles as not explaining the observed ploidy ratios, may, in fact, explain them if they translate into slight phase differences in looping transitions. In species where fertility is low, the looping dissimilarities between phases cannot be too high favoring simultaneously one phase, as the population structure would be completely dominated by that phase. In the case of ecological similarity between phases (equal looping and growth rates between phases), a ploidy ratio different from one can only be set by strong phase differences in fertility.     

Demographic models to simulate the stable ratio between ecologically similar gametophytes and tetrasporophytes in populations of the Gigartinaceae (Rhodophyta)

In populations of the Gigartinaceae (Rhodophyta), gametophytes often predominate numerically over tetrasporophytes. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this dominance, based on the usually implicit assumption that the stable ratio between gametophytes and tetrasporophytes (G:T ratio) should be 1 if both reproductive phases are ecologically similar. We developed demographic models to test this assumption, for which we considered that both phases are ecologically similar. Defining ecologic similarity for most demographic rates is relatively straightforward, except for rates of spore output. The first set of models considered the same spore output per thallus of both phases as representing ecologic similarity. Model iterations led to stable G:T ratios of 1 for triennial and for perennial thalli, regardless of the initial G:T ratio, but not for annual thalli with initial G:T ratios different from 1. However, equal spore output may not represent ecologic similarity, due to size differences between carpospores and tetraspores. The second set of models considered the lowest possible spore output for each phase, according to the life history of this family: only one carposporangium, with one carpospore, is produced from every two gametophytes and only one tetrasporangium, with four tetraspores, is produced by every tetrasporophyte. Model iterations led to stable G:T ratios of 2.8 for most cases, a ratio of 1 being obtained only every 2 years for annual thalli with an initial G:T ratio of 1. Increasing absolute spore output, without altering the relative output between phases and incorporating density-independent mortality through a matrix model, given the same mortality rate for both phases, did not modify results. We suggest that the combination of both modeling and field research may uncover more rapidly than otherwise the most relevant ecologic differences between phases, if any, that underlie the G:T ratio observed for a given population.     

Biases in the estimation of the demographic parameters of a snowshoe hare population

1. Survival rates and natalities for a population of snowshoe hares in the Yukon were estimated independently of and simultaneously with estimates of population change during the increase phase of a hare cycle.
2. Simple demographic models are used to show that even though the estimated survival rates and natalities were high relative to previously published estimates, the observed demographic parameters are unable to explain the extent of population increase, and we conclude that some of these parameters must be underestimates.
3. A sensitivity analysis is used to examine the potential influence of changes in these demographic parameters on the population growth rate. During most years of the hare cycle the population growth rate is potentially most sensitive to changes in juvenile postweaning survival. Only during crash years is adult survivorship likely to be a more important determinant of the rate of population change.
4. Examination of previously published data sets on two full population cycles suggests that while survival rates are positively correlated with population growth rates, their incorporation into demographic models results in frequent underestimation of the rate of population increase.     

Coexistence of competitors in metacommunities due to spatial variation in resource growth rates; does R * predict the outcome of competition?

Simple mathematical models are used to investigate the coexistence of two consumers using a single limiting resource that is distributed over distinct patches, and that has unequal growth rates in the different patches. Relatively low movement rates or high demographic rates of an inefficient resource exploiter allow it to coexist at a stable equilibrium with a more efficient species whose ratio of movement to demographic rates is lower. The range of conditions allowing coexistence depends on the between‐patch heterogeneity in resource growth rates, but this range can be quite broad. The between‐patch movement of the more efficient consumer turns patches with high resource growth rates into sources, while low‐growth‐rate patches effectively become sinks. A less efficient species can coexist with or even exclude the more efficient species from the global environment if it is better able to bias its spatial distribution towards the source patches. This can be accomplished with density independent dispersal if the less efficient species has a lower ratio of per capita between‐patch movement rate to demographic rates. Conditions that maximize the range of efficiencies allowing coexistence of two species are: a relatively high level of heterogeneity in resource growth conditions; high dispersal (or low demographic rates) of the superior competitor; and low dispersal (or high demographic rates) of the inferior competitor. Global exclusion of the more efficient competitor requires that the inferior competitor have sufficient movement to also produce a source‐sink environment.     

What can genetics tell us about population connectivity?

Genetic data are often used to assess ‘population connectivity’ because it is difficult to measure dispersal directly at large spatial scales. Genetic connectivity, however, depends primarily on the absolute number of dispersers among populations, whereas demographic connectivity depends on the relative contributions to population growth rates of dispersal vs. local recruitment (i.e. survival and reproduction of residents). Although many questions are best answered with data on genetic connectivity, genetic data alone provide little information on demographic connectivity. The importance of demographic connectivity is clear when the elimination of immigration results in a shift from stable or positive population growth to negative population growth. Otherwise, the amount of dispersal required for demographic connectivity depends on the context (e.g. conservation or harvest management), and even high dispersal rates may not indicate demographic interdependence. Therefore, it is risky to infer the importance of demographic connectivity without information on local demographic rates and how those rates vary over time. Genetic methods can provide insight on demographic connectivity when combined with these local demographic rates, data on movement behaviour, or estimates of reproductive success of immigrants and residents. We also consider the strengths and limitations of genetic measures of connectivity and discuss three concepts of genetic connectivity that depend upon the evolutionary criteria of interest: inbreeding connectivity, drift connectivity, and adaptive connectivity. To conclude, we describe alternative approaches for assessing population connectivity, highlighting the value of combining genetic data with capture‐mark‐recapture methods or other direct measures of movement to elucidate the complex role of dispersal in natural populations.     

The growth–mortality tradeoff: evidence from anuran larvae and consequences for species distributions

A tradeoff affecting the ability to grow under high versus low resource levels has been commonly hypothesized to influence species distributions across resource gradients in a wide variety of taxa. This influence is dependent on individual growth being proportional to traits that affect demographic processes such as mortality. However, data on how individual growth scales with demographic performance are rare. We conducted a mesocosm experiment, and re-analyzed data from a similarly designed field experiment, to examine the relationship between growth and mortality in two tadpole species that segregate across a resource gradient. Overall, environmental conditions leading to faster growth also lead to lower mortality rates. However, species differed in this relationship. Leopard frogs achieved faster growth than wood frogs, but their absolute mortality was greater and increased steeply as growth decreased. Conversely, absolute mortality of wood frogs was lower and less strongly dependent on growth. These interspecific differences suggest a second tradeoff, that between maximizing growth rates or minimizing mortality, with potentially important demographic consequences. Leopard frogs grow faster than wood frogs in productive ponds, but are excluded from unproductive ponds dominated by wood frogs due to accelerating mortality rates with declining realized growth. A review of the literature suggests that in diverse taxa, including plants, microcrustaceans and drosophilids, patterns in mortality are consistent with this tradeoff indicating that the mechanism we demonstrate could be a link between individual performance and demographic rates influencing species distributions in other systems.     

MORTALITY PLATEAUS AND THE EVOLUTION OF SENESCENCE: WHY ARE OLD-AGE MORTALITY RATES SO LOW?

Age-specific mortality rates level off far below 100% at advanced ages in experimental populations of Drosophila melanogaster and other organisms. This observation is inconsistent with the equilibrium predictions of both the antagonistic pleiotropy and mutation accumulation models of senescence, which, under a wide variety of assumptions, predict a “wall” of mortality rates near 100% at postreproductive ages. Previous models of age-specific mortality patterns are discussed in light of recent demographic data concerning late-age mortality deceleration and age-specific properties of new mutations. The most recent theory (Mueller and Rose 1996) argues that existing evolutionary models can easily and robustly explain the demographic data. Here we discuss the sensitivity of that analysis to different types of mutational effects, and demonstrate that its conclusion is very sensitive to assumptions about mutations. A legitimate resolution of evolutionary theory and demographic data will require experimental observations on the age-specificity of mutational effects for new mutations and the degree to which mortality rates in adjacent ages are constrained to be similar (positive pleiotropy), as well as consideration of redundancy and heterogeneity models from demographic theory.     

Complex population dynamics and the coalescent under neutrality

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size N(e) can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between N(e) and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of N(e) such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics.     

Functional traits influence plant survival depending on environmental contexts and life stages in an old-growth temperate forest

温带老龄林功能性状对植物存活的影响依赖于环境背景和生活史阶段 功能性状通常在不考虑环境背景的情况下被用来预测植物动态。然而,前人的研究发现性状对植物动态有较弱的预测能力。本文假设加入环境背景而不仅仅关注性状能够提高对性状-植物动态 关系的理解。本研究基于一个9 ha温带老龄林动态监测样地,利用广义线性混合效应模型分析功能性状(叶、茎、种子和整个个体水平)、环境梯度(土壤养分、水分和海拔)以及两者的交互效应对14133个幼树、3289个成年树存活动态的影响。本文发现环境因子、邻体拥挤度和性状主效应能够影响植物存活。然而,后两者的影响在幼树和成年树间存在差异。性状-环境交互效应影响植物存活,即资源保守的性状在相对严酷的环境下提高植物存活而在相对温和的环境下降低植物存活。海拔梯度是本样地调节植物存活最重要的环境因子。我们的研究结果支持功能性状对局域尺度植物存活的影响依赖于环境背景的假设。该结果也暗示拥有有限性状变异的单一物种不能占据所有的环境梯度,从而提高物种多样性。     

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus.

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane toad Bufo marinus in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information with microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Very little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits of our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.     

Demographic,mechanistic and density-dependent determinants of population growth rate: a case study in an avian predator

Identifying the determinants of population growth rate is a central topic in population ecology. Three approaches (demographic, mechanistic and density-dependent) used historically to describe the determinants of population growth rate are here compared and combined for an avian predator, the barn owl (Tyto alba). The owl population remained approximately stable (r approximately 0) throughout the period from 1979 to 1991. There was no evidence of density dependence as assessed by goodness of fit to logistic population growth. The finite (lambda) and instantaneous (r) population growth rates were significantly positively related to food (field vole) availability. The demographic rates, annual adult mortality, juvenile mortality and annual fecundity were reported to be correlated with vole abundance. The best fit (R(2) = 0.82) numerical response of the owl population described a positive effect of food (field voles) and a negative additive effect of owl abundance on r. The numerical response of the barn owl population to food availability was estimated from both census and demographic data, with very similar results. Our analysis shows how the demographic and mechanistic determinants of population growth rate are linked; food availability determines demographic rates, and demographic rates determine population growth rate. The effects of food availability on population growth rate are modified by predator abundance.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30 years of mark-recapture data

1. Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life-history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top- and middle-trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.     

Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise

The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms-which probably act in many species-can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought.     

On harvesting a structured ungulate population

Variation in demographic rates within a spatially structured population could have important consequences for management decisions, harvesting strategies and offtake rates. Although there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that demographic rates vary within populations over a range of spatial scales, there has been little research investigating the consequences of this variation for population management. In this paper, data on the dynamics of two female red deer sub-populations on Rum are analysed, and evidence is presented for differences between the fecundity and mortality rates of the two sub-populations. A simple harvesting model is developed to represent the dynamics of the two sub-populations, including density-independent migration between sub-populations and spatially correlated environmental variability. The highest monetary yield in the model is obtained by harvesting the more resilient sub-population at a higher rate. Surprisingly the losses involved in harvesting both sub-populations at the same rate are insignificant. However, if migration were density-dependent, the size of one sub-population would be more relevant to harvesting policy for the other sub-population. The results of this empirical study are compared to theoretical work on spatially structured populations; it is shown that when a species has complex age- and sex-structured population dynamics, previous theoretical results may not hold.     

Demography of fluctuating vole populations: Phase homogeneity of demographic variables

Most research on fluctuations of arvicoline rodents has focused on changes in demographic variables across phases. Here, we examined whether demographic variables varied within a phase (trough, increase, and decline) across 30 fluctuations of Microtus ochrogaster and 14 fluctuations of Microtus pennsylvanicus over 25 years. For each species, we tested for phase homogeneity (i.e., values of demographic variables were invariant across all fluctuations within a given phase) for the following demographic variables: monthly survival (total, adult, young), proportion of reproductively active adult males and females, proportion of young, and proportion of immigrants. We found phase homogeneity for 96.7% of the 582 phase/fluctutation data sets for the seven variables, in the three phases of across all fluctuations in the three habitats for M. ochrogaster and 98.0% of 254 of those for M. pennsylvanicus in two habitats. We conclude that for each of these two species demographic variables are relatively invariant both within a phase and across fluctuations.     

From stochastic environments to life histories and back

Environmental stochasticity is known to play an important role in life-history evolution, but most general theory assumes a constant environment. In this paper, we examine life-history evolution in a variable environment, by decomposing average individual fitness (measured by the long-run stochastic growth rate) into contributions from average vital rates and their temporal variation. We examine how generation time, demographic dispersion (measured by the dispersion of reproductive events across the lifespan), demographic resilience (measured by damping time), within-year variances in vital rates, within-year correlations between vital rates and between-year correlations in vital rates combine to determine average individual fitness of stylized life histories. In a fluctuating environment, we show that there is often a range of cohort generation times at which the fitness is at a maximum. Thus, we expect ‘optimal’ phenotypes in fluctuating environments to differ from optimal phenotypes in constant environments. We show that stochastic growth rates are strongly affected by demographic dispersion, even when deterministic growth rates are not, and that demographic dispersion also determines the response of life-history-specific average fitness to within- and between-year correlations. Serial correlations can have a strong effect on fitness, and, depending on the structure of the life history, may act to increase or decrease fitness. The approach we outline takes a useful first step in developing general life-history theory for non-constant environments.     

The contributions of age and sex to variation in common tern population growth rate

1. The decomposition of population growth rate into contributions from different demographic rates has many applications, ranging from evolutionary biology to conservation and management. Demographic rates with low variance may be pivotal for population persistence, but variable rates can have a dramatic influence on population growth rate. 2. In this study, the mean and variance in population growth rate (lambda) is decomposed into contributions from different ages and demographic rates using prospective and retrospective matrix analyses for male and female components of an increasing common tern (Sterna hirundo) population. 3. Three main results emerged: (1) subadult return was highly influential in prospective and retrospective analyses; (2) different age-classes made different contributions to variation in lambda: older age classes consistently produced offspring whereas young adults performed well only in high quality years; and (3) demographic rate covariation explained a significant proportion of variation in both sexes. A large contribution to lambda did not imply a large contribution to its variation. 4. This decomposition strengthens the argument that the relationship between variation in demographic rates and variation in lambda is complex. Understanding this relationship and its consequences for population persistence and evolutionary change demands closer examination of the lives, and deaths, of the individuals within populations within species.