The effect of the meteorological factors on the Alnus pollen season in Lublin (Poland)

Alder pollen seasons and the effect of meteorological conditions on daily average pollen counts in the air of Lublin (Poland) were analysed. Alnus pollen grains reach very high concentrations in the atmosphere of this city during the early spring period and the parameters of pollen seasons were very different in the particular years studied. The pollen season lasted on average one month. The highest variation was observed for the peak value and the Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI). The pollen seasons, which started later, had shorter duration. Peak daily average pollen counts and SPI value were higher during the shorter seasons. Similarities in the stages of pollen seasons designated by the percentage method depended on the start date of the pollen season. Season parameters were mainly correlated with thermal conditions at the beginning of the year. Regression analysis was used to predict certain characteristics of the alder pollen season. The highest level of explanation of the variation in Alnus pollen season start and peak dates was obtained in the model using mean temperature in February. The obtained regression models may predict 82% of the variation in the pollen season start date, 73% of the variation in the duration, and 62% in the peak date.     

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

A comparative study of different temperature accumulation methods for predicting the start of the Quercus pollen season in Cordoba (South West Spain)

The aim of the present paper is to study the influence of air temperature on the start of Quercus pollination in Córdoba (Andalusia, Spain). Sixteen years of pollen counts were used. The start date of the pollen season in this period varied between 26^th February and 7^th April. Chilling requirements and heat accumulation were taken into account although no significant correlation between chilling hours and the start date was observed. Five different predictive methods based on heat accumulation were compared in this paper: 1) Number of days over a threshold; 2) Heat Units (accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a base temperature); 3) Growing Degrees Days (Snyder 1988), as a measure of physiological growing time; 4) Accumulated maximum temperatures; and 5) Mean maximum temperature. Results indicated that the optimum base temperature for heat accumulation was 11 C^o. This threshold was used in the first three methods mentioned above. Good statistical results were obtained with the five methods, yielding high levels of explanation (p～99%). Nevertheless, the most accurate method appeared to be the Growing Degree Days (GDD^o) method, which indicated that a mean of 127.3 GDD^o must be accumulated from the end of the chilling period up to the beginning of the Quercus pollen season in Córdoba (South West Spain). Results were tested for predicting start dates in 1999 and 2000. The predicted dates were only one day after the actual dates.     

The influence of air temperature on the starting dates of the pollen season of alnus and populus

In this work we have studied the influence of air temperature on the starting dates of Alnus and Populus pollination in two different climatic regions in Europe: central Italy and The Netherlands. The start of the Alnus pollen season varied between 27th January and 16th February in the Italian stations while in The Netherlands it showed an average delay of about one month. For Populus the beginning of the pollen season was delayed on an average 15 days at Dutch places compared to central Italy. In the former it varied between 14th March and 21st April while in the latter between 28th February and 24th March. Significant correlations exist between the beginning of pollination for these taxa and temperature conditions in the preceding periods. The highest correlations found were with daily mean decade temperature for three decades before the average starting dates of the pollen season. These correlations were better for The Netherlands than for central Italy perhaps because the temperature in Holland is the more prominent meteorological factor (relative to precipitation) compared with central Italy, where precipitation has much influence in winter. This study indicated correlations between the pollination and temperature also during the dormant period in the preceding season.     

Aerobiological study of Fagaceae pollen in the middle-west of Spain

The concentration of airborne Fagaceae pollen in Salamanca and the correlations with some meteorological parameters have been examined. Castanea and Quercus pollen grains were collected from 1998 to 2004 using a Burkard spore trap. No pollen grains of Fagus were found. The main pollen season took place in April and May for Quercus and in June and July for Castanea. Yearly variations on these dates could be related to the influence of meteorological factors such as rainfall, temperature, or dominant winds. The highest values appeared in the year 2004 for both taxa. The Fagaceae airborne content was mainly due to Quercus pollen, Castanea having a scarce pollen content in the city of Salamanca. The highest counts of Fagaceae pollen grains were found from mid May to early June due to the pollen behavior of oaks. The cumulative counts varied over the years, with a mean value of 2,384 pollen grains, a highest total of 6,036 in 2004 and a lowest total of 954 in 2001. No cyclic variations were observed. Daily pollen concentrations presented positive correlation with temperature, negative with relative humidity and slightly negative with rainfall using Spearman's correlation coefficients, only in the case of Castanea, because the particular hourly distribution of rainfall during the spring might affect Quercus airborne pollen.     

Predicting tree pollen season start dates using thermal conditions

Thermal conditions at the beginning of the year determine the timing of pollen seasons of early flowering trees. The aims of this study were to quantify the relationship between the tree pollen season start dates and the thermal conditions just before the beginning of the season and to construct models predicting the start of the pollen season in a given year. The study was performed in Krakow (Southern Poland); the pollen data of Alnus, Corylus and Betula were obtained in 1991–2012 using a volumetric method. The relationship between the tree pollen season start, calculated by the cumulated pollen grain sum method, and a 5-day running means of maximum (for Alnus and Corylus) and mean (for Betula) daily temperature was found and used in the logistic regression models. The estimation of model parameters indicated their statistically significance for all studied taxa; the odds ratio was higher in models for Betula, comparing to Alnus and Corylus. The proposed model makes the accuracy of prediction in 83.58 % of cases for Alnus, in 84.29 % of cases for Corylus and in 90.41 % of cases for Betula. In years of model verification (2011 and 2012), the season start of Alnus and Corylus was predicted more precisely in 2011, while in case of Betula, the model predictions achieved 100 % of accuracy in both years. The correctness of prediction indicated that the data used for the model arrangement fitted the models well and stressed the high efficacy of model prediction estimated using the pollen data in 1991–2010.     

Comparison of airborne herb pollen types in Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland)

This study sought to compare airborne pollen counts for a number of common herbaceous species (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae–Amaranthaceae, Rumex, and Urticaceae) in two cities with differing weather conditions, Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland). Pollen seasons for these species were studied from 1995 to 2005. Aerobiological sampling was performed using a Hirst type 7-day spore trap, in accordance with the procedure developed by the European Aerobiology Network. A Spearman correlation test was used to test for correlations between meteorological parameters and daily airborne pollen counts. The Spearman correlation test and the Wilcoxon signed ranks test were also used to compare mean daily pollen counts for the two study sites. In Córdoba, the pollen season generally started around two months earlier than in Poznan, and also lasted longer. These findings were attributed to the presence of a larger number of species in Córdoba, with overlapping pollen seasons, and also to more favorable weather conditions. Trends in pollen season start dates were fairly stable over the study period, with a slight tendency to delayed onset in Córdoba and a modest advance in start date in Poznan. The pollen season end date also remained reasonably stable over the study, with only a slight tendency for the season to end earlier in Córdoba and later in Poznan. A clear trend towards declining annual pollen counts was recorded over the study period for all pollen types in both cities.     

Forecast of Pollination Dates and Relation to Onset of Allergic Pathology

Forecasting pollination would help allergists to establish an appropriate prevention for allergic patients. Previous studies have related meteorological variables to airborne pollen counts; patients suffer allergy episodes before the peak of pollen is reached. A 10-year study was done in Saint-Etienne (France) by a multi-disciplinary team (medical doctors, meteorologists, plant biologists). The frequency distribution of patients with pollinosis was obtained from mid-January to August every year. The meteorological station recorded the temperatures daily; pollen counts were obtained with a pollen trap. The maturation stages of trees (ash, birch) and graminaceae (dactyl and meadow grass) were followed by weekly sampling and provided the exact date of pollination. Mathematical models were built to predict the developmental stages of plant growth and the values were compared with the exact dates obtained every year. The frequency distribution of allergic patients was either mono or biphasic according to the evolution of daily temperatures. The maximum peak of patients always preceded the peak of graminaceae over the 10-year period. Different models were found to adequately predict the pollination dates: a Q ₁₀-based algorithm best described the pollination date of trees; a weighted Q ₁₀ algorithm best reflected the pollination of graminaceae.     

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus</Emphasis> spp. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus</Emphasis> spp. in Worcester,United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m³) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.     

A method to forecast the start of theBetula, Platanus andQuercus pollen seasons in North London

This paper attempts the prediction of the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons in London, UK based on pollen sampling conducted over a 5-year period, 1987–1991. The times at which eight different thresholds of accumulated daily pollen counts (M⁻³) were passed were correlated against heat sums, chill units, accumulated sunshine hours, monthly meteorological parameters and the start dates of earlier pollen seasons to identify significant associations. Few meteorological parameters were significantly correlated with the start dates of the three pollen seasons, the exceptions being significant negative correlations between the average monthly air temperature in the months immediately preceding theBetula andPlatanus pollen season. However, significant relationships were identified between the start dates of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons and the start of theCorylus, Taxus andPopulus pollen seasons with coefficients of determination as high as 98%. These indicator species were then used as predictors to forecast the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons, both individually and in combination with one another, providing levels of explanation of up to 99%.     

Long distance pollen transport cause problems for determining the timing of birch pollen season in Fennoscandia by using phenological observations

The male flowering and leaf bud burst of birch take place almost simultaneously, suggesting that the observations of leaf bud burst could be used to determine the timing of birch pollen release. However, long‐distance transport of birch pollen before the onset of local flowering may complicate the utilization of phenological observations in pollen forecasting.

We compared the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch with the timing of the stages of birch pollen season during an eight year period (1997–2004) at five sites in Finland. The stages of the birch pollen season were defined using four different thresholds: 1) the first date of the earliest three‐day period with airborne birch pollen counts exceeding 10 grains m^?3 air; and the dates when the accumulated pollen sum reaches 2) 5%; 3) 50% and 4) 95% of the annual total. Atmospheric modelling was used to determine the source areas for the observed long‐distance transported pollen, and the exploitability of phenological observations in pollen forecasting was evaluated.

Pair‐wise comparisons of means indicate that the timing of leaf bud burst fell closest to the date when the accumulated pollen sum reached 5% of the annual total, and did not differ significantly from it at any site (p<0.05; Student‐Newman‐Keuls test). It was found that the timing of leaf bud burst of silver birch overlaps with the first half of the main birch pollen season. However, phenological observations alone do not suffice to determine the timing of the main birch pollen season because of long‐distance transport of birch pollen.     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Betula</Emphasis> spp. pollen in the atmosphere of Novi Sad (2000–2002)

Pollen of Betula spp. is one of the main European aeroallergens. The aim of this study was to determine characteristics and occurrence of the Betula pollen in Novi Sad atmosphere, based on 3-year observations (2000–2002), and to compare pollen season start dates calculated by different methods. Pollen samples have been collected by Hirst volumetric method with a 7-day Burkard spore trap. Four methods (Sum 75, 2.5%, 30 and 1 pg/m ³) have been used for determination of the start dates of the Betula pollen season and the results have been compared. The total annual pollen sum increased during the observed period. In 2000, 2001 and 2002, the highest daily pollen concentrations were 97, 137 and 1034 pg/m ³, respectively. The earliest Betula pollen season start has been calculated by the 1 pg/m ³ method.     

A change from grass pollen induced allergy to tree pollen induced allergy: 30 years of pollen observation in Switzerland

Pollen monitoring with a Hirst like pollen trap for 30 years in Basel, Switzerland allows understanding of the behaviour of the different plants producing allergenic pollens. It becomes evident that in this time period the different tree pollen like Hazel and Birch increased, whereas in the control, the observed amount of a herb pollen like Artemisa did not change. Moreover, it was observed that in the different trees flowering took place earlier namely at the beginning of the year. This was especially impressive for Hazel, where flowering was shifted ofmore than one month. These aerobiological observations were supported and confirmed by some epidemiological studies, showing that tree pollen allergy has become more important in the last years compared to grass pollen allergy and herb pollen allergy. The reason for the increase of tree pollen counts and the shift in the flowering time depends on the observed increase of the annual temperature, an increased input of nutrients like CO₂or NO_x but probably also a real increase of certain trees, like birch for example, in parks and avenues. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Birch (betula) pollen incidence in france (1987–1990)

An analysis of the pollen content in the air in six French towns (Besançon, Nancy, Strasbourg, Paris, Amiens and Lyon) since 1987 has provided a comparison of the characteristics of the birch (Betula) pollen season. Single and multiple correlation methods associating both pollen and climatic parameters (particularly air temperature) were tested. The starting dates of the pollen season were observed in the six stations and compared with the estimated dates using different methods. Good correlation coefficients were obtained if the data from the year 1990, when exceptional climatic conditions prevailed, are excluded.     

Aerobiology of Fagaceae pollen in Trieste (NE Italy)

The aerobiological behaviour of Fagaceae in Trieste and the correlations with the meteorological parameters were examined. Airborne pollen grains of Castanea, Fagus and Quercus were collected from 1990 to 2003 using a Hirst type spore trap. The main pollen season (MPS) takes place in April and May for Quercus and Fagus, in June and July for Castanea. The highest values occur in year 1993 for Quercus, in 1998 for Castanea and in 1992 for Fagus. The Fagaceae content of the air is mainly due to Quercus and Castanea pollen, Fagus usually having a scarce pollen shedding in Trieste. The highest counts of Fagaceae pollen grains are found from late April to mid May and are mainly due to the pollen shedding of oaks. The cumulative counts vary over the years, with a mean value of 2.719 pollen grains, a lowest total of 1.341 in 2002 and a highest total of 4.704 in 1993. No positive nor negative long-term trends in pollen shedding are found. No cyclic variations were observed. Spearman’s correlation was used to establish the relationship between the daily pollen counts and the daily meteorological data. Daily pollen concentrations present sometimes positive correlation with temperature, negative with rainfall and wind speed, and no correlation with humidity. Fagus and Quercus start dates result positively correlated between themselves. Significant correlations are found between the start of MPS and the mean and maximum temperature in March for Fagus and Quercus, and May for Castanea.     

Global warming and the earlier start of the Japanese-cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) pollen season in Toyama, Japan

Atmospheric pollen surveys were conducted in Toyama City, Japan over a 21-year period (1983–2003). Airborne pollen was collected by two methods, the gravimetric method and the volumetric method. The gravimetric method indicated that the start of the Cryptomeria japonica pollen season, as indicated by pollen dispersion, has advanced from day 73 (from January 1) in 1983 to day 47 in 2003. Measurements taken using the volumetric method confirmed this trend. There was a significant correlation between the start dates obtained by both methods. Meteorological data indicated that the most noticeable elevation in temperature during the experimental period occurred in February – an increase of 2.1°C. Significant correlations existed between the mean temperatures and the start dates of the pollen season. These results support the steadily increasing number of reports indicating a global warming trend. The temperature change in February in affecting the start dates of the C. japonica pollen season is particularly relevant in the context of human health. Further studies will be needed to clarify the effects of the global warming trend on the pollen season and human health in more detail.     

Airborne pine (Pinus spp.) pollen in the atmosphere of Perugia (Central Italy): Behaviour of pollination in the two last decades

The phenology of many species, which grow intemperate climate, is principally regulated bythe temperature and the plants respond withvariations in the beginning, in the durationand in the intensity of the various phenophasestowards every climate change. We have analysedthe data of Pinus pollination in Perugia,Central Italy, during last 2 decades(1982–2001), in a period during which theannual mean temperature significantly increasedby about 0.8 °C.The pine pollination started, on average,between the end of March and mid-April andended in the last days of June, with a meanduration of 65 days. The start dates showed asignificant negative correlation with theaverage air temperature in March andsignificant trends towards an earlier beginningof pollination by 18 days (–0.9 day/year) and ashorter duration of the pollen season by 10days (–0.6 day/year) were found over thestudied period. Moreover, the trend of thedaily pollen counts showed, on average, analmost normal distribution, but the analysis ofeach yearly trend revealed significantdifferences correlated with the meantemperature during the pollen season. Theseobserved trends in pine pollination suggest theuse of aerobiological monitoring of thisairborne pollen as indicator of temperaturechange in Central Italy over a relatively longperiod.     

Airborne Pinus pollen in the atmosphere of Brisbane, Australia and relationships with meteorological parameters

Relationships between weather parameters andairborne pollen loads of Pinus inBrisbane, Australia have been investigated overthe five-year period, June 1994–May 1999.Pinus pollen accounts for 4.5% of the annualairborne pollen load in Brisbane where thePinus season is confined to the winter months,July–early September. During the samplingperiod loads of 11–>100 grains m³ wererecorded on 24 days and 1–10 grains m³ on204 days. The onset and peak dates wereconsistent across each season, whereas the enddates varied. The onset of the Pinuspollen season coincided with the coolestaverage monthly temperatures (< 22°C),lowest rainfall (< 7mm), and four weeks afterdaily minimum temperatures fell to 5–9°Cin late autumn. Correlations obtained betweendaily airborne Pinus pollen counts andtemperature/rainfall parameters show thatdensities of airborne Pinus pollen arenegatively correlated with maximum temperature(p < 0.0001), minimum temperature (p < 0.0001)and rainfall (p < 0.05) during the mainpollination period. The mean duration of eachpollen season was 52 days; longer seasons wereshown to be directly related to lower averageseasonal maximum temperatures (r² = 0.85,p = 0.025). These results signify that maximumand minimum temperatures are the majorparameters that influence the onset andduration of the Pinus pollen season inthe environs of Brisbane. Respiratory allergyis an important health issue in Brisbane,Australia, but it remains unknown whether ornot airborne Pinus pollen is acontributing factor.     

Influence of meteorological parameters on Olea flowering date and airborne pollen concentration in four regions of Portugal

For calculating the total annual Olea pollen concentration, the onset of the main pollen season and the peak pollen concentration dates, using data from 1998 to 2004, predictive models were developed using multiple regression analysis. Four Portuguese regions were studied: Reguengos de Monsaraz, Valença do Douro, Braga and Elvas. The effect of some meteorological parameters such as temperature and precipitation on Olea spatial and temporal airborne pollen distribution was studied. The best correlations were found when only the pre‐peak period was used, with thermal parameters (maximum temperature) showing the highest correlation with airborne pollen distribution. Independent variables, selected by regression analysis for the predictive models, with the greatest influence on the Olea main pollen season features were accumulated number of days with rain and rainfall in the previous autumn, and temperatures (average and minimum) from January through March. The models predict 59 to 99% of the total airborne pollen concentration recorded and the initial and peak concentration dates of the main Olea pollen season.