Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Plasticity in the timing of a major life‐history transition and resulting changes in the age structure of populations of the salamander Hynobius retardatus

Variation in age and size at life‐history transitions is a reflection of the diversifying influence of biotic or abiotic environmental change. Examples abound, but it is not well understood how such environmental changes influence the age structure of a population. I experimentally investigated the effects of water temperature and food type on age and body size at metamorphosis in larvae of the salamander Hynobius retardatus. In individuals grown at a cold temperature (15 °C) or given Chironomidae as prey, the time to metamorphosis was significantly prolonged, and body size at metamorphosis was significantly enlarged, compared with individuals grown at a warmer temperature (20 °C) or fed larvae. I also examined whether larval density (a possible indicator of cannibalism in natural habitats) generated variation in the age structure of natural populations in Hokkaido, Japan, where the climate is subarctic. Natural ponds in Hokkaido may contain larvae that have overwintered for 1 or 2 years, as well as larvae of the current year, and I found that the number of age classes was related to larval density. Although cool water temperatures prolong the larval period and induce later metamorphosis, in natural ponds diet‐based enhancement of development translated into a shorter larval duration and earlier metamorphosis. Geographic variation in the frequency of cannibalism resulted in population differences in metamorphic timing in H. retardatus larvae. It is important to understand how environmental effects are ultimately transduced through individual organisms into population‐level phenomena, with the population response arising as the summation of individual responses. Without a thorough comprehension of the mechanisms through which population and individual responses to environmental conditions are mediated, we cannot interpret the relationship between population‐level and individual‐level phenomena. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102 , 100–114.     

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density‐dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density‐independent) factors and intrinsic (density‐dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density‐dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) vs. density‐dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete‐time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type, and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density‐dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate‐driven environmental change.     

Ecological differentiation between the Sardinian endemic Maniola nurag and the pan-European M. jurtina

Recently refined evolutionary theories have highlighted that ecological interactions and environmental gradients can play a major role in speciation. This paper reports on a 3‐year field study, in which the ecology of two congeneric butterfly species was used to explore and compare the environmental factors determining their spatial distribution. These data are discussed in the context of possible speciation scenarios between the Sardinian populations of Maniola nurag and M. jurtina. M. nurag is endemic to the island of Sardinia, while M. jurtina is widespread over Europe. In Sardinia, the two species are locally sympatric. Mark–release–recapture experiments were combined with measures of environmental variables in 15 1‐ha plots, established in areas of potential habitat for the butterflies. Constrained linear models were parameterized from mark–recapture data to estimate both individual (survival and capture probabilities) and population (population size and recruitment) parameters. The two species had similar demography, movement patterns, life history, and behaviour. Population sizes developed in a parabolic fashion from beginning to end of the flight season. Differences included local population size, adult phenology, and habitat requirements. Long‐distance movements larger than 1.5 km were observed, suggesting a substantial amount of gene‐flow between populations of the endemic as well as the widespread species. Multivariate analyses revealed four main environmental gradients responsible for the abundance of the butterflies in an area. Both species responded similarly to environmental variables. However, each species’s abundance was correlated with a different environmental gradient determined by vegetation cover and structure. When sympatric, the two species responded to subtle differences in microhabitat structure. This might originally have induced their divergence. This study is an example of how empirical field data on population dynamics, dispersal, and habitat characteristics of two sympatric congeners can further our understanding of how species differentiate despite existing gene‐flow. © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006, 89 , 561–574.     

Signals of large scale climate drivers,hatchery enhancement,and marine factors in Yukon River Chinook salmon survival revealed with a Bayesian life history model

Understanding how species might respond to climate change involves disentangling the influence of co‐occurring environmental factors on population dynamics, and is especially problematic for migratory species like Pacific salmon that move between ecosystems. To date, debate surrounding the causes of recent declines in Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance has centered on whether factors in freshwater or marine environments control variation in survival, and how these populations at the northern extremity of the species range will respond to climate change. To estimate the effect of factors in marine and freshwater environments on Chinook salmon survival, we constructed a stage‐structured assessment model that incorporates the best available data, estimates incidental marine bycatch mortality in trawl fisheries, and uses Bayesian model selection methods to quantify support for alternative hypotheses. Models fitted to two index populations of Yukon River Chinook salmon indicate that processes in the nearshore and marine environments are the most important determinants of survival. Specifically, survival declines when ice leaves the Yukon River later in the spring, increases with wintertime temperature in the Bering Sea, and declines with the abundance of globally enhanced salmon species consistent with competition at sea. In addition, we found support for density‐dependent survival limitations in freshwater but not marine portions of the life cycle, increasing average survival with ocean age, and age‐specific selectivity of bycatch mortality in the Bering Sea. This study underscores the utility of flexible estimation models capable of fitting multiple data types and evaluating mortality from both natural and anthropogenic sources in multiple habitats. Overall, these analyses suggest that mortality at sea is the primary driver of population dynamics, yet under warming climate Chinook salmon populations at the northern extent of the species’ range may be expected to fare better than southern populations, but are influenced by foreign salmon production.     

Inferences About Ungulate Population Dynamics Derived From Age Ratios

Abstract: Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:cow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (Λ) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and Λ. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.     

秦岭水灾迹地油松和华山松更新种群数量特征

 不同植物种群种间比较研究利于揭示种群的形成机制和影响因素。该文研究了秦岭地区蔡玉河流域范家庄段水灾迹地恢复17年后群落优势种油松(Pinus tabulaeformis) 和华山松(P. armandii)的种群数量特征。水灾灾后第一年（1989年）就有油松和华山松个体进入迹地,由于较大的高生长速度和侧生长速度,油松种群的平均高度和地径高于华山松,占据了较大的垂直和水平空间。相对来说, 油松和华山松高度结构和径级结构模式不同,二者均是小个体数量居多,大个体数量极少,但油松中等大小个体多于华山松。油松和华山松种群的年龄结构模式不同,油松的为单峰右偏曲线,华山松的则近似于正态分布。坡向对油松的年龄结构模式没有影响,但对华山松种 群有影响。油松和华山松种群不同高度级、径级和年龄级之间存在显著正或负相关关系,缺少一致性,表明种群大小结构不一定反映年龄结构。油松和华山松种群的密度动态和存活曲线类型一致,均为Ⅱ型,表明二者具有相同的种群动态。总体上说,油松和华山松具有不同的树种生物学特性,使得种群的大小结构和年龄结构不同,但对种群更新存活动态没有影响。     

Individual‐based modelling of resource competition to predict density‐dependent population dynamics: a case study with white storks

Density regulation influences population dynamics through its effects on demographic rates and consequently constitutes a key mechanism explaining the response of organisms to environmental changes. Yet, it is difficult to establish the exact form of density dependence from empirical data. Here, we developed an individual‐based model to explore how resource limitation and behavioural processes determine the spatial structure of white stork Ciconia ciconia populations and regulate reproductive rates. We found that the form of density dependence differed considerably between landscapes with the same overall resource availability and between home range selection strategies, highlighting the importance of fine‐scale resource distribution in interaction with behaviour. In accordance with theories of density dependence, breeding output generally decreased with density but this effect was highly variable and strongly affected by optimal foraging strategy, resource detection probability and colonial behaviour. Moreover, our results uncovered an overlooked consequence of density dependence by showing that high early nestling mortality in storks, assumed to be the outcome of harsh weather, may actually result from density dependent effects on food provision. Our findings emphasize that accounting for interactive effects of individual behaviour and local environmental factors is crucial for understanding density‐dependent processes within spatially structured populations. Enhanced understanding of the ways animal populations are regulated in general, and how habitat conditions and behaviour may dictate spatial population structure and demographic rates is critically needed for predicting the dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems under changing environmental conditions.     

Direct and plant trait‐mediated effects of the local environmental context on butterfly oviposition patterns

Variation in the intensity of plant–animal interactions over different spatial scales is widespread and might strongly influence fitness and trait selection in plants. Differences in traits among plant individuals have been shown to influence variation in interaction intensities within populations, while differences in environmental factors and community composition are shown to be important for variation over larger scales. However, little is still known about the relative importance of the local environmental context vs. plant traits for the outcome of interactions within plant populations. We investigated how oviposition by the seed‐predator butterfly Phengaris alcon on its host plant Gentiana pneumonanthe was related to host plant traits and to local environmental variation, as well as how oviposition patterns translated into effects on host plant fruit set. We considered the local environmental context in terms of height of the surrounding vegetation and abundance of the butterfly's second host, Myrmica ants. The probability of oviposition was higher in plants that were surrounded by lower vegetation, and both the probability of oviposition and the number of eggs increased in early‐flowering and tall plants with many flowers in the three study populations. Flowering phenology, shoot height and flower production were, in turn, related to higher surrounding vegetation. Myrmica abundance was correlated with vegetation height, but had no effect on oviposition patterns. Oviposition and subsequent seed predation by the caterpillars strongly reduced host plant fruit set. Our results show that plant–animal interactions are context‐dependent not only because the context influences the abundance or the behavior of the animal interactor, but also because it influences the expression of plant traits that affect the outcome of the interaction. The results also demonstrate that heterogeneity in environmental conditions at a very local scale can be important for the outcomes of interactions.     

The demographic basis of population regulation in columbian ground squirrels

Environmental factors influence the dynamics and regulation of biological populations through their influences on demographic variables, but demographic mechanisms of population regulation have received little attention. We investigated the demographic basis of regulation of Columbian ground squirrel (Spermophilus columbianus) populations under natural and experimentally food-supplemented conditions. Food supplementation caused substantial increases in population density, and population densities returned to pretreatment levels when the supplementation ended. Control (untreated) populations remained relatively stable throughout the study period (1981-1986). Because food resources regulated the size of the ground squirrel populations, we used life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses to examine the demographic basis of changes in population growth rate and thus also demographic influences on population regulation. LTRE analyses of two food-manipulated populations revealed that changes in age at maturity and fertility rate of females generally made the largest contributions to observed changes in population growth rate. Thus, our results suggested that abundance of food resources regulated the size of our study populations through the effects of food resources on age at maturity and fertility rates. Our results also indicated that different demographic mechanisms can underlie population regulation under different environmental conditions, because lower juvenile survival substantially contributed to population decline, but in only one of the populations. Demographic analyses of experimental data, such as those presented here, offer a rigorous and unambiguous means to elucidate the demographic basis of population regulation and to help identify environmental factors that underlie dynamics and regulation of biological populations.     

Diet–demography relationships in a long‐lived predator: from territories to populations

Understanding the mechanisms that shape animal population dynamics is of fundamental interest in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. Food supply is an important limiting factor in most animal populations and may have demographic consequences. Optimal foraging theory predicts greater consumption of preferred prey and less diet diversity when food is abundant, which may benefit key fitness parameters such as productivity and survival. Nevertheless, the correspondence between individual resource use and demographic processes in populations of avian predators inhabiting large geographic areas remains largely unexplored, particularly in complex ecosystems such as those of the Mediterranean basin. Based on a long‐term monitoring program of the diet and demography of Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata in western Europe, here we test the hypothesis that a predator's diet is correlated to its breeding productivity and survival at both the territorial and population levels, and ultimately to its population growth rate. At the territorial level, we found that productivity increased with greater consumption of European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, the Bonelli's eagle's preferred prey, and pigeons, an important alternative prey for this predator. The survival of territorial pairs was negatively affected by higher diet diversity, which probably reflected the inability to find sufficient high quality prey. Diet effects at the population level were similar but more noticeable than at the territorial level, i.e. a greater consumption of rabbits, together with lesser consumption of small‐to‐medium avian species (‘other birds’; non‐preferred prey), increased productivity, while greater diet diversity and lower consumption of rabbits was associated with reduced survival and population growth rate. Overall, our study illustrates how the diet of a predator species can be closely related to key individual vital rates, which, in turn, leave a measurable fingerprint on population dynamics within and among populations across large spatial scales.     

Optimal age of maturity in fluctuating environments under r‐ and K‐selection

Optimality models for evolution of life histories have shown that increased environmental stochasticity promotes early age of maturity. Here we argue that if r‐selection for early maturation implies a tradeoff making those phenotypes more sensitive to a change in population size than phenotypes maturing at older ages, K‐selection can favor delayed onset of maturation. We analyze a general stochastic Leslie‐matrix model with a simplified density regulation affecting all survivals equally through a function of the population vector, often called the ‘critical age class’. We show that the outcome of such an age‐dependent r‐ and K‐selection is that the expected value of the ‘critical age class’ is maximized by evolution, a strategy strongly influenced by the magnitude of the environmental stochasticity. We also demonstrate that evolution caused by such density‐dependent selection influences the population dynamics, showing a possible reciprocal effect between ecology and evolution in age‐structured populations. This modeling approach reveals that changes in population size affecting the fitness of phenotypes with different age of maturity may be an important selective agent for variation in onset of reproduction in fluctuating environments. This provides a testable hypothesis for how patterns in the population dynamics should affect life history variation.     

Direct negative density‐dependence in a pond‐breeding frog population

Understanding population dynamics is critical for the management of animal populations. Comparatively little is known about the relative importance of endogenous (i.e. density‐dependent) and exogenous (i.e. density‐independent) factors on the population dynamics of amphibians with complex life cycles. We examined the potential effects of density‐dependent and ‐independent (i.e. climatic) factors on population dynamics by analyzing a 15‐yr time series data of the agile frog Rana dalmatina population from Târnava Mare Valley, Romania. We used two statistical models: 1) the partial rate correlation function to identify the feedback structure and the potential time lags in the time series data and 2) a Gompertz state‐space model to simultaneously investigate direct and delayed density dependence as well as climatic effects on population growth rate. We found evidence for direct negative density dependence, whereas delayed density dependence and climate did not show a strong influence on population growth rate. Here we demonstrated that direct density dependence rather than delayed density dependence or climate determined the dynamics of our study population. Our results confirm the findings of many experimental studies and suggest that density dependence may buffer amphibian populations against environmental stress. Consequently, it may not be easy to scale up from individual‐level effects to population‐level effects.     

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.     

Recruitment variation in a stream galaxiid fish: multiple influences on fry dynamics in a heterogeneous environment

1. The relative importance of density‐dependent and density‐independent processes in explaining fluctuations in natural populations has been widely debated. In particular, the importance of larval supply and whether it may control the type of regulatory processes a population experiences has proved contentious. 2. Using surveys and field experiments conducted in streams in Canterbury, New Zealand, we investigated how variation in the survival of non‐migratory Galaxias vulgaris fry was affected by density‐dependent and density‐independent processes and how this variation influenced recruitment dynamics. 3. Fry populations with high settlement densities experienced a 70–80% reduction in population size from density‐related mortality during the first fourteen days after peak settlement but thereafter the influence of density‐dependent processes on fry was weak. The impact of environmental conditions on fry populations was dependent on fry size and the magnitude of the perturbation, such that flooding effects on fry survival were most severe when fry were small. 4. In streams not affected by flooding, the size and density of introduced trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) were the most significant factors determining the abundance of eventual recruits. A field experiment manipulating brown trout access to fry populations revealed that trout as small as 110 mm may be capable of greatly reducing and possibly preventing galaxiid recruitment. 5. Overall, the results indicated density‐dependent population regulation was only possible at sites with high native fish densities because trout were likely to be suppressing the number of potential recruits at sites with low native fish numbers. Whilst density‐dependent processes had a strong effect on fry survival following the period of peak fry abundance, density‐independent processes associated with flow and predatory trout influences on fry survival largely determined recruitment variability among galaxiid populations. Focusing conservation efforts on improving habitat to increase fry retention and reducing the impacts of trout on galaxiids would ensure more native fish populations reached their potential abundance.     

Dynamics of a small re-introduced population of wild dogs over 25 years: Allee effects and the implications of sociality for endangered species’ recovery

We analysed 25 years (1980–2004) of demographic data on a small re-introduced population of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park (HiP), South Africa, to describe population and pack dynamics. As small populations of cooperative breeders may be particularly prone to Allee effects, this extensive data set was used to test the prediction that, if Allee effects occur, aspects of reproductive success, individual survival and population growth should increase with pack and population size. The results suggest that behavioural aspects of wild dogs rather than ecological factors (i.e. competitors, prey and rainfall) primarily have been limiting the HiP wild dog population, particularly a low probability of finding suitable mates upon dispersal at low pack number (i.e. a mate-finding Allee effect). Wild dogs in HiP were not subject to component Allee effects at the pack level, most likely due to low interspecific competition and high prey availability. This suggests that aspects of the environment can mediate the strength of Allee effects. There was also no demographic Allee effect in the HiP wild dog population, as the population growth rate was significantly negatively related to population size, despite no apparent ecological resource limitation. Such negative density dependence at low numbers indicates that behavioural studies of the causal mechanisms potentially generating Allee effects in small populations can provide a key to understanding their dynamics. This study demonstrates how aspects of a species’ social behaviour can influence the vulnerability of small populations to extinction and illustrates the profound implications of sociality for endangered species’ recovery. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Effects of size structure and habitat complexity on predator–prey interactions

1. A predator's ability to suppress its prey depends on the level of interference among predators. While interference typically decreases with increasing habitat complexity, it often increases with increasing size differences among individuals. However, little is known about how variation in intrinsic factors such as population size structure alters predator–prey interactions and how this intrinsic variation interacts with extrinsic variation. 2. By experimentally varying the level of vegetation cover and the size structure of the predatory damselfly Ischnura posita Hagen, we examined the individual and interactive effects of variation in habitat complexity and predator size structure on prey mortality. 3. Copepod prey survival linearly increased as the I. posita size ratio decreased and differed by up to 31% among different predator size structures. Size classes had an additive effect on prey survival, most likely because intraspecific aggression appeared size‐independent and size classes differed in microhabitat preference: large I. posita spent 14% more time foraging on the floor than small larvae and spent more time in the vegetation with increasing habitat complexity. Despite this difference in microhabitat use among size classes, habitat structure did not influence predation rates or interference among size classes. 4. In general, results suggest that seasonal and spatial variation in the size structure of populations could drive some of the discrepancies in predator‐mediated prey suppression observed in nature, and this variation could exceed the effects of variation in habitat structure.     

Disentangling demographic co‐effects of predation and pollution on population dynamics

In nature species react to a variety of endogenous and exogenous ecological factors. Understanding the mechanisms by which these factors interact and drive population dynamics is a need for understanding and managing ecosystems. In this study we assess, using laboratory experiments, the effects that the combinations of two exogenous factors exert on the endogenous structure of the population dynamics of a size‐structured population of Daphnia. One exogenous factor was size‐selective predation, which was applied on experimental populations through simulating: 1) selective predation on small prey, 2) selective predation on large prey and 3) non‐selective predation. The second exogenous factor was pesticide exposure, applied experimentally in a quasi‐continuous regime. Our analysis combined theoretical models and statistical testing of experimental data for analyzing how the density dependence structure of the population dynamics was shifted by the different exogenous factors. Our results showed that pesticide exposure interacted with the mode of predation in determining the endogenous dynamics. Populations exposed to the pesticide and to either selective predation on newborns or selective predation on adults exhibited marked nonlinear effects of pesticide exposure. However, the specific mechanisms behind such nonlinear effects were dependent on the mode of size‐selectivity. In populations under non‐selective predation the pesticide exposure exerted a weak lateral effect. The ways in which endogenous process and exogenous factors may interact determine population dynamics. Increases in equilibrium density results in higher variance of population fluctuations but do not modify the stability properties of the system, while changes in the maximum growth rate induce changes in the dynamic regimes and stability properties of the population. Future consideration for research includes the consequences of the seasonal variation in the composition and activity of the predator assembly in interaction with the seasonal variation in exposure to agrochemicals on freshwater population dynamics.     

Frequency responses of age-structured populations: Pacific salmon as an example

Increasing evidence of the effects of changing climate on physical ocean conditions and long-term changes in fish populations adds to the need to understand the effects of stochastic forcing on marine populations. Cohort resonance is of particular interest because it involves selective sensitivity to specific time scales of environmental variability, including that of mean age of reproduction, and, more importantly, very low frequencies (i.e., trends). We present an age-structured model for two Pacific salmon species with environmental variability in survival rate and in individual growth rate, hence spawning age distribution. We use computed frequency response curves and analysis of the linearized dynamics to obtain two main results. First, the frequency response of the population is affected by the life history stage at which variability affects the population; varying growth rate tends to excite periodic resonance in age structure, while varying survival tends to excite low frequency fluctuation with more effect on total population size. Second, decreasing adult survival strengthens the cohort resonance effect at all frequencies, a finding that addresses the question of how fishing and climate change will interact.     

Limited inbreeding depression in a bottlenecked population is age but not environment dependent

Inbreeding depression is known to vary greatly between populations and among species. Some of this variation is due to differences in genetic load between populations, while some is due to differences in the environment (e.g. local weather conditions) or demography of the population (e.g. age structure and breeding experience) in which inbreeding is expressed. Although the effects of these factors in isolation are well understood, there is still relatively little known about the interface between inbreeding on one hand, and environment and demography on the other in wild populations. We examined how environmental and demographic factors mediated the effects of inbreeding in a threatened species of bird. The Stewart Island robin, Petroica australis rakiura, has been subjected to a prolonged bottleneck for over 150 years. A complete pedigree of a reintroduced island population, extending back seven seasons to its founding, was available for analysis along with survival data (at the level of the brood) obtained from intensive monitoring over two breeding seasons. We found no strong support that the degree to which a brood was inbred affected its survival at either the hatching, fledging or recruitment stages. The inbreeding coefficient of the mother did have an effect on brood survival when analysed over all three life history stages, but only as a result of an interaction with female age, with broods of one‐year‐old inbred females suffering greater mortality than those of older inbred females. Although habitat type, temperature, rainfall and year were the best predictors of brood survival for most life history stages, their effects were weak and there were no interactions with inbreeding. Furthermore, there was no strong evidence of inbreeding depression associated with two periods of severe weather. This population is atypical in that inbreeding depression appears to be weak even under severe environmental conditions, and may be indicative that this bottlenecked population has either reduced genetic load or has fixed deleterious alleles.