Arrival and onset of breeding of three passerine birds in eastern Finland tracks climatic variation and phenology of insects

Anthropogenic climate change poses a challenge to the annual cycles of migratory birds. It has become urgent to understand whether migratory birds are able to advance their spring phenology when the climate is warming and whether they are able to adjust these phenological phases to the spring phenology in their breeding areas. In this work, we studied long‐term trends in first arrival and onset of breeding for three passerine birds in eastern Finland; the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca, the common redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus and the great tit Parus major. The pied flycatcher and the common redstart are long‐distance migrants while the great tit is a partial migrant in Finland. We asked what environmental variables best explain the first arrival or onset of breeding, if there is evidence of ‘thermal delay’ (long‐term increase in the accumulated temperatures) at arrival or onset of breeding and if the interannual variation in the onset of breeding correlates with variation in spring phenology of local insects. We found that the pied flycatcher and the common redstart had advanced their first arrival (explained by increased temperatures at the migration route), but we found no long‐term change in the onset of breeding (explained by local temperatures). Also, the onset of breeding of the great tit is tracking local temperatures. We found no or only weak evidence of thermal delay at arrival or onset of breeding for any of the species. The onsets of breeding for the pied flycatcher and the great tit are also closely tracking the spring phenology of the local insects. The stable or increasing population sizes of all three species in Finland could be a result from their ability to effectively track climatic and environmental variation.     

Geographic patterns of genetic differentiation and plumage colour variation are different in the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)

The pied flycatcher is one of the most phenotypically variable bird species in Europe. The geographic variation in phenotypes has often been attributed to spatial variation in selection regimes that is associated with the presence or absence of the congeneric collared flycatcher. Spatial variation in phenotypes could however also be generated by spatially restricted gene flow and genetic drift. We examined the genetic population structure of pied flycatchers across the breeding range and applied the phenotypic Q _ST ( P _ST)– F _ST approach to detect indirect signals of divergent selection on dorsal plumage colouration in pied flycatcher males. Allelic frequencies at neutral markers were found to significantly differ among populations breeding in central and southern Europe whereas northerly breeding pied flycatchers were found to be one apparently panmictic group of individuals. Pairwise differences between phenotypic ( P _ST) and neutral genetic distances ( F _ST) were positively correlated after removing the most differentiated Spanish and Swiss populations from the analysis, suggesting that genetic drift may have contributed to the observed phenotypic differentiation in some parts of the pied flycatcher breeding range. Differentiation in dorsal plumage colouration however greatly exceeded that observed at neutral genetic markers, which indicates that the observed pattern of phenotypic differentiation is unlikely to be solely maintained by restricted gene flow and genetic drift.     

Polymorphism at the Clock gene predicts phenology of long‐distance migration in birds

Dissecting phenotypic variance in life history traits into its genetic and environmental components is at the focus of evolutionary studies and of pivotal importance to identify the mechanisms and predict the consequences of human‐driven environmental change. The timing of recurrent life history events (phenology) is under strong selection, but the study of the genes that control potential environmental canalization in phenological traits is at its infancy. Candidate genes for circadian behaviour entrained by photoperiod have been screened as potential controllers of phenological variation of breeding and moult in birds, with inconsistent results. Despite photoperiodic control of migration is well established, no study has reported on migration phenology in relation to polymorphism at candidate genes in birds. We analysed variation in spring migration dates within four trans‐Saharan migratory species (Luscinia megarhynchos; Ficedula hypoleuca; Anthus trivialis; Saxicola rubetra) at a Mediterranean island in relation to Clock and Adcyap1 polymorphism. Individuals with larger number of glutamine residues in the poly‐Q region of Clock gene migrated significantly later in one or, respectively, two species depending on sex and whether the within‐individual mean length or the length of the longer Clock allele was considered. The results hinted at dominance of the longer Clock allele. No significant evidence for migration date to covary with Adcyap1 polymorphism emerged. This is the first evidence that migration phenology is associated with Clock in birds. This finding is important for evolutionary studies of migration and sheds light on the mechanisms that drive bird phenological changes and population trends in response to climate change.     

Sympatric divergence and clinal variation in multiple coloration traits of Ficedula flycatchers

Geographic variation in phenotypes plays a key role in fundamental evolutionary processes such as local adaptation, population differentiation and speciation, but the selective forces behind it are rarely known. We found support for the hypothesis that geographic variation in plumage traits of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca is explained by character displacement with the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in the contact zone. The plumage traits of the pied flycatcher differed strongly from the more conspicuous collared flycatcher in a sympatric area but increased in conspicuousness with increasing distance to there. Phenotypic differentiation (P_ST) was higher than that in neutral genetic markers (F_ST), and the effect of geographic distance remained when statistically controlling for neutral genetic differentiation. This suggests that a cline created by character displacement and gene flow explains phenotypic variation across the distribution of this species. The different plumage traits of the pied flycatcher are strongly to moderately correlated, indicating that they evolve non‐independently from each other. The flycatchers provide an example of plumage patterns diverging in two species that differ in several aspects of appearance. The divergence in sympatry and convergence in allopatry in these birds provide a possibility to study the evolutionary mechanisms behind the highly divergent avian plumage patterns.     

No evident spatial genetic structuring in the rapidly declining Black-tailed Godwit <Emphasis Type="Italic">Limosa limosa</Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">limosa</Emphasis> in The Netherlands

With 40% of the European Black-tailed Godwit population breeding in The Netherlands, this country harbours internationally significant numbers of this species. However, ongoing agricultural intensification has resulted in the fragmentation of the population and drastic population declines since 1967. By establishing genetic diversity, genetic differentiation and gene flow on the basis of 12 microsatellites, we investigated whether the population genetic structure of the Dutch Black-tailed Godwit bears the marks of these changes. Genetic diversity appeared to be moderate, and Bayesian model-based analysis of individual genotypes revealed no clustering in the Dutch populations. This was supported by pairwise F_ST values and AMOVA, which indicated no differentiation among the nine breeding areas. Gene flow estimates were larger than “one migrant per generation” between sample locations, and no isolation by distance was demonstrated. Our results indicate the maintenance of moderate levels of genetic diversity and genetic connectivity between breeding sites throughout the Dutch Black-tailed Godwit breeding population. We suggest that the Dutch Black-tailed Godwit breeding areas should be managed as a single panmictic unit, much as it is presently done.     

Climate change, breeding date and nestling diet: how temperature differentially affects seasonal changes in pied flycatcher diet depending on habitat variation

1.?Climate warming has led to shifts in the seasonal timing of species. These shifts can differ across trophic levels, and as a result, predator phenology can get out of synchrony with prey phenology. This can have major consequences for predators such as population declines owing to low reproductive success. However, such trophic interactions are likely to differ between habitats, resulting in differential susceptibility of populations to increases in spring temperatures. A mismatch between breeding phenology and food abundance might be mitigated by dietary changes, but few studies have investigated this phenomenon. Here, we present data on nestling diets of nine different populations of pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca, across their breeding range. This species has been shown to adjust its breeding phenology to local climate change, but sometimes insufficiently relative to the phenology of their presumed major prey: Lepidoptera larvae. In spring, such larvae have a pronounced peak in oak habitats, but to a much lesser extent in coniferous and other deciduous habitats. 2.?We found strong seasonal declines in the proportions of caterpillars in the diet only for oak habitats, and not for the other forest types. The seasonal decline in oak habitats was most strongly observed in warmer years, indicating that potential mismatches were stronger in warmer years. However, in coniferous and other habitats, no such effect of spring temperature was found. 3.?Chicks reached somewhat higher weights in broods provided with higher proportions of caterpillars, supporting the notion that caterpillars are an important food source and that the temporal match with the caterpillar peak may represent an important component of reproductive success. 4.?We suggest that pied flycatchers breeding in oak habitats have greater need to adjust timing of breeding to rising spring temperatures, because of the strong seasonality in their food. Such between-habitat differences can have important consequences for population dynamics and should be taken into account in studies on phenotypic plasticity and adaptation to climate change.     

Climate change and fitness components of a migratory bird breeding in the Mediterranean region

The increase in spring temperatures in temperate regions over the last two decades has led to an advancing spring phenology, and most resident birds have responded to it by advancing their onset of breeding. The pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) is a long‐distance migrant bird with a relatively late onset of breeding with respect to both resident birds and spring phenology in Europe. In the present correlational study, we show that some fitness components of pied flycatchers are suffering from climate change in two of the southernmost European breeding populations. In both montane study areas, temperature during May increased between 1980 and 2000 and an advancement of oak leafing was detected by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to assess tree phenology. This might result in an advancement of the peak in availability of caterpillars, the main prey during the nestling stage. Over the past 18 yr, the time of egg laying and clutch size of pied flycatchers were not affected by the increase in spring temperatures in these Mediterranean populations. However, this increase seems to have an adverse effect on the reproductive output of pied flycatchers over the same period. Our data suggest that the mismatch between the timing of peak food supply and nestling demand caused by recent climate change might result in a reduction of parental energy expenditure that is reflected in a reduction of nestling growth and survival of fledged young in our study populations. The data seem to indicate that the breeding season has not shifted and it is the environment that has shifted away from the timing of the pied flycatcher breeding season. Mediterranean pied flycatchers were not able to advance their onset of breeding, probably, because they are constrained by their late arrival date and their restricted high altitude breeding habitat selection near the southern border of their range.     

Bud phenology and growth are subject to divergent selection across a latitudinal gradient in Populus angustifolia and impact adaptation across the distributional range and associated arthropods

Temperate forest tree species that span large geographical areas and climatic gradients often have high levels of genetic variation. Such species are ideal for testing how neutral demographic factors and climate‐driven selection structure genetic variation within species, and how this genetic variation can affect ecological communities. Here, we quantified genetic variation in vegetative phenology and growth traits in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia, using three common gardens planted with genotypes originating from source populations spanning the species' range along the Rocky Mountains of North America (ca. 1700 km). We present three main findings. First, we found strong evidence of divergent selection (Q_ST > F_ST) on fall phenology (bud set) with adaptive consequences for frost avoidance. We also found evidence for selection on bud flush duration, tree height, and basal diameter, resulting in population differentiation. Second, we found strong associations with climate variables that were strongly correlated with latitude of origin. More strongly differentiated traits also showed stronger climate correlations, which emphasizes the role that climate has played in divergent selection throughout the range. We found population × garden interaction effects; for some traits, this accounted for more of the variance than either factor alone. Tree height was influenced by the difference in climate of the source and garden locations and declined with increasing transfer distance. Third, growth traits were correlated with dependent arthropod community diversity metrics. Synthesis. Overall, we conclude that climate has influenced genetic variation and structure in phenology and growth traits and leads to local adaptation in P. angustifolia, which can then impact dependent arthropod species. Importantly, relocation of genotypes far northward or southward often resulted in poor growth, likely due to a phenological mismatch with photoperiod, the proximate cue for fall growth cessation. Genotypes moved too far southward suffer from early growth cessation, whereas those moved too far northward are prone to fall frost and winter dieback. In the face of current and forecasted climate change, habitat restoration, forestry, and tree breeding efforts should utilize these findings to better match latitudinal and climatic source environments with management locations for optimal future outcomes.     

Clock gene variation is associated with breeding phenology and maybe under directional selection in the migratory barn swallow

Background

In diverse taxa, photoperiodic responses that cause seasonal physiological and behavioural shifts are controlled by genes, including the vertebrate Clock orthologues, that encode for circadian oscillator mechanisms. While the genetic network behind circadian rhythms is well described, relatively few reports exist of the phenological consequences of and selection on Clock genes in the wild. Here, we investigated variation in breeding phenology in relation to Clock genetic diversity in a long-distance migratory bird, the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica).

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a sample of 922 adult barn swallows from a single population breeding in Italy we found one very common (Q₇) and three rare (Q₅, Q₆, Q₈) length variants of a functionally significant polyglutamine repeat. Rare (2.9%) Q₇/Q₈ heterozygous females, but not males, bred significantly later than common (91.5%) Q₇/Q₇ females, consistent with the expectation that ‘long’ alleles cause late breeding, as observed in a resident population of another bird species. Because breeding date depends on arrival date from migration, present results suggest that the association between breeding date and Clock might be mediated by migration phenology. In addition, fecundity selection appears to be operating against Q₇/Q₈ because late migrating/breeding swallows have fewer clutches per season, and late breeding has additional negative selection effects via reduced offspring longevity. Genotype frequencies varied marginally non-significantly with age, as Q₇/Q₈ frequency showed a 4-fold reduction in old individuals. This result suggests negative viability selection against Q₇/Q₈, possibly mediated by costs of late breeding.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first study of migratory birds showing an association between breeding phenology and Clock genotype and suggesting that negative selection occurs on a phenologically deviant genotype. Low polymorphism at Clock may constrain microevolutionary phenological response to changing climate, and may thus contribute to the decline of barn swallow populations.     

Breeding phenology in Rana temporaria. Local variation is due to pond temperature and population size

Frog breeding phenology in temperate zones is usually compared to progress of spring temperatures at a regional scale. However, local populations may differ substantially in phenology. To understand this, local climate and other aspects must be studied. In this study, breeding phenology of the common frog, Rana temporaria, in a set of ponds in southern Sweden is analyzed. There was within year a variation of up to 3 weeks in start of breeding among local populations. Water temperature was measured in the ponds, and breeding tended to be earlier in warmer ponds (surprise!). Breeding was also earlier in ponds with a large breeding congregation. Alternative reasons for these patterns are suggested and discussed. There was a large residual variation. The common frog has a wide range of acceptable wintering sites, and I hypothesize that the particular choice by a local population may explain part of this residual variation.     

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate.     

Clock gene polymorphism,migratory behaviour and geographic distribution: a comparative study of trans‐Saharan migratory birds

Migratory behaviour is controlled by endogenous circannual rhythms that are synchronized by external cues, such as photoperiod. Investigations on the genetic basis of circannual rhythmicity in vertebrates have highlighted that variation at candidate ‘circadian clock’ genes may play a major role in regulating photoperiodic responses and timing of life cycle events, such as reproduction and migration. In this comparative study of 23 trans‐Saharan migratory bird species, we investigated the relationships between species‐level genetic variation at two candidate genes, Clock and Adcyap1, and species’ traits related to migration and geographic distribution, including timing of spring migration across the Mediterranean Sea, migration distance and breeding latitude. Consistently with previous evidence showing latitudinal clines in ‘circadian clock’ genotype frequencies, Clock allele size increased with breeding latitude across species. However, early‐ and late‐migrating species had similar Clock allele size. Species migrating over longer distances, showing delayed spring migration and smaller phenotypic variance in spring migration timing, had significantly reduced Clock (but not Adcyap1) gene diversity. Phylogenetic confirmatory path analysis suggested that migration date and distance were the most important variables directly affecting Clock gene diversity. Hence, our study supports the hypothesis that Clock allele size increases poleward as a consequence of adaptation to the photoperiodic regime of the breeding areas. Moreover, we show that long‐distance migration is associated with lower Clock diversity, coherently with strong stabilizing selection acting on timing of life cycle events in long‐distance migratory species, likely resulting from the time constraints imposed by late spring migration.     

Spatial variation in breeding phenology at small spatial scales: A stochastic effect of population size

Spatial variation in phenology can occur at small spatial scales over which individuals can disperse or forage within one generation. Previous studies have assumed that variations in phenological peaks are caused by differences in abiotic environmental characteristics. However, environments should generally be similar among local habitats over small spatial scales. When the local population size is small, the phenological peak of the local population should be strongly affected by the variation in timing expressed by individuals. If a regional population consists of small local subpopulations (e.g., a metapopulation), the stochastic processes regulated by population sizes may explain the spatial variation in phenology. In this study, we quantitatively evaluated the extent of the spatial and annual variations in the breeding phenology of the forest green tree frog, Rhacophorus arboreus habiting a small area (<10 km²). The spatial variation in phenological peaks among 25 breeding sites was large over 6 years. This spatial variation was not explained by differences in air temperature or water depth. Randomization tests revealed that a large portion of the spatial variation could be explained by differences in population size, without considering site-specific factors. Annual variations in phenological peaks tended to be greater for smaller populations. These results imply that the stochastic process might have caused the spatial and annual variations in the phenological peaks of R. arboreus observed in the study region. Understanding spatiotemporal variation in phenology determined by stochastic process would be important to better predict interspecific interactions and (meta)population dynamics at small spatial scales.     

Role of selection and gene flow in population differentiation at the edge vs. interior of the species range differing in climatic conditions

Evaluating the relative importance of neutral and adaptive processes as determinants of population differentiation across environments is a central theme of evolutionary biology. We applied the Q_ST–F_ST comparison flanked by a direct test for local adaptation to infer the role of climate‐driven selection and gene flow in population differentiation of an annual grass Avena sterilis in two distinct parts of the species range, edge and interior, which represent two globally different climates, desert and Mediterranean. In a multiyear reciprocal transplant experiment, the plants of desert and Mediterranean origin demonstrated home advantage, and population differentiation in several phenotypic traits related to reproduction exceeded neutral predictions, as determined by comparisons of Q_ST values with theoretical F_ST distributions. Thus, variation in these traits likely resulted from local adaptation to desert and Mediterranean environments. The two separate common garden experiments conducted with different experimental design revealed that two population comparisons, in contrast to multi‐population comparisons, are likely to detect population differences in virtually every trait, but many of these differences reflect effects of local rather than regional environment. We detected a general reduction in neutral (SSR) genetic variation but not in adaptive quantitative trait variation in peripheral desert as compared with Mediterranean core populations. On the other hand, the molecular data indicated intensive gene flow from the Mediterranean core towards desert periphery. Although species range position in our study (edge vs. interior) was confounded with climate (desert vs. Mediterranean), the results suggest that the gene flow from the species core does not have negative consequences for either performance of the peripheral plants or their adaptive potential.     

Descriptive and experimental evidence for timing-mediated polygyny risk in a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population

In polygynous species with biparental care, mates are often acquired in succession. Most research has focussed on the cost of polygyny in secondary females, but primary females may also suffer from reduced paternal care. The likelihood of sharing a male may be higher for early laying females, which could counteract the fitness benefits of breeding early. In this study, we use 12 years of data on pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca, to show that the likelihood of becoming a primary female of a polygynous male declines over the season. Moreover, we provide experimental evidence that early breeding elevates polygyny risk, through an experimental manipulation that introduced early breeding females to a population with later breeding phenology. We found that, independently of breeding date, primary females slightly more often experienced complete brood failures than monogamous females, but did not differ in number of fledged offspring among successful broods or number of locally returning recruits. However, apparent survival in subsequent years was substantially lower in primary females, indicating that they may compensate for reduced male care at the expense of future reproduction. Our study reveals that polygyny risk indeed increases with early breeding and entails a local survival cost for primary females. However, this cost is likely largely outweighed by fitness benefits of early breeding in most years. Hence it is unlikely that the increased polygyny risk of early breeding counteracts the fitness benefits, but it may reduce selection for breeding extremely early.     

Fine‐grained adaptive divergence in an amphibian: genetic basis of phenotypic divergence and the role of nonrandom gene flow in restricting effective migration among wetlands

Adaptive ecological differentiation among sympatric populations is promoted by environmental heterogeneity, strong local selection and restricted gene flow. High gene flow, on the other hand, is expected to homogenize genetic variation among populations and therefore prevent local adaptation. Understanding how local adaptation can persist at the spatial scale at which gene flow occurs has remained an elusive goal, especially for wild vertebrate populations. Here, we explore the roles of natural selection and nonrandom gene flow (isolation by breeding time and habitat choice) in restricting effective migration among local populations and promoting generalized genetic barriers to neutral gene flow. We examined these processes in a network of 17 breeding ponds of the moor frog Rana arvalis, by combining environmental field data, a common garden experiment and data on variation in neutral microsatellite loci and in a thyroid hormone receptor (TRβ) gene putatively under selection. We illustrate the connection between genotype, phenotype and habitat variation and demonstrate that the strong differences in larval life history traits observed in the common garden experiment can result from adaptation to local pond characteristics. Remarkably, we found that haplotype variation in the TRβ gene contributes to variation in larval development time and growth rate, indicating that polymorphism in the TRβ gene is linked with the phenotypic variation among the environments. Genetic distance in neutral markers was correlated with differences in breeding time and environmental differences among the ponds, but not with geographical distance. These results demonstrate that while our study area did not exceed the scale of gene flow, ecological barriers constrained gene flow among contrasting habitats. Our results highlight the roles of strong selection and nonrandom gene flow created by phenological variation and, possibly, habitat preferences, which together maintain genetic and phenotypic divergence at a fine‐grained spatial scale.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: the importance of replication in landscape genetics

Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population‐specific and pairwise F_ST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate‐related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and F_ST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin‐wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave‐one‐population‐out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and F_ST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

What prevents phenological adjustment to climate change in migrant bird species? Evidence against the “arrival constraint” hypothesis

Phenological studies have demonstrated changes in the timing of seasonal events across multiple taxonomic groups as the climate warms. Some northern European migrant bird populations, however, show little or no significant change in breeding phenology, resulting in synchrony with key food sources becoming mismatched. This phenological inertia has often been ascribed to migration constraints (i.e. arrival date at breeding grounds preventing earlier laying). This has been based primarily on research in The Netherlands and Germany where time between arrival and breeding is short (often as few as 9 days). Here, we test the arrival constraint hypothesis over a 15-year period for a U.K. pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) population where laying date is not constrained by arrival as the period between arrival and breeding is substantial and consistent (average 27 ± 4.57 days SD). Despite increasing spring temperatures and quantifiably stronger selection for early laying on the basis of number of offspring to fledge, we found no significant change in breeding phenology, in contrast with co-occurring resident blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus). We discuss possible non-migratory constraints on phenological adjustment, including limitations on plasticity, genetic constraints and competition, as well as the possibility of counter-selection pressures relating to adult survival, longevity or future reproductive success. We propose that such factors need to be considered in conjunction with the arrival constraint hypothesis.