Value of long‐term ecological studies

Long‐term ecological studies are critical for providing key insights in ecology, environmental change, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation. In this paper, we briefly discuss five key values of such studies. These are: (1) quantifying ecological responses to drivers of ecosystem change; (2) understanding complex ecosystem processes that occur over prolonged periods; (3) providing core ecological data that may be used to develop theoretical ecological models and to parameterize and validate simulation models; (4) acting as platforms for collaborative studies, thus promoting multidisciplinary research; and (5) providing data and understanding at scales relevant to management, and hence critically supporting evidence‐based policy, decision making and the management of ecosystems. We suggest that the ecological research community needs to put higher priority on communicating the benefits of long‐term ecological studies to resource managers, policy makers and the general public. Long‐term research will be especially important for tackling large‐scale emerging problems confronting humanity such as resource management for a rapidly increasing human population, mass species extinction, and climate change detection, mitigation and adaptation. While some ecologically relevant, long‐term data sets are now becoming more generally available, these are exceptions. This deficiency occurs because ecological studies can be difficult to maintain for long periods as they exceed the length of government administrations and funding cycles. We argue that the ecological research community will need to coordinate ongoing efforts in an open and collaborative way, to ensure that discoverable long‐term ecological studies do not become a long‐term deficiency. It is important to maintain publishing outlets for empirical field‐based ecology, while simultaneously developing new systems of recognition that reward ecologists for the use and collaborative sharing of their long‐term data sets. Funding schemes must be re‐crafted to emphasize collaborative partnerships between field‐based ecologists, theoreticians and modellers, and to provide financial support that is committed over commensurate time frames.     

Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)

Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.     

Combining contemporary ecology and palaeolimnology to understand shallow lake ecosystem change

1. Palaeolimnology and contemporary ecology are complementary disciplines but are rarely combined. By reviewing the literature and using a case study, we show how linking the timescales of these approaches affords a powerful means of understanding ecological change in shallow lakes. 2. Recently, palaeolimnology has largely been pre‐occupied with developing transfer functions which use surface sediment‐lake environment datasets to reconstruct a single environmental variable. Such models ignore complex controls over biological structure and can be prone to considerable error in prediction. Furthermore, by reducing species assemblage data to a series of numbers, transfer functions neglect valuable ecological information on species’ seasonality, habitat structure and food web interactions. These elements can be readily extracted from palaeolimnological data with the interpretive assistance of contemporary experiments and surveys. For example, for one shallow lake, we show how it is possible to infer long‐term seasonality change from plant macrofossil and fossil diatom data with the assistance of seasonal datasets on macrophyte and algal dynamics. 3. On the other hand, theories on shallow lake functioning have generally been developed from short‐term (<1–15 years) studies as opposed to palaeo‐data that cover the actual timescales (decades–centuries) of shallow lake response to stressors such as eutrophication and climate change. Palaeolimnological techniques can track long‐term dynamics in lakes whilst smoothing out short‐term variability and thus provide a unique and important means of not only developing ecological theories, but of testing them. 4. By combining contemporary ecology and palaeolimnology, it should be possible to gain a fuller understanding of changing ecological patterns and processes in shallow lakes on multiple timescales.     

Ecological implications of behavioural syndromes

Interspecific trait variation has long served as a conceptual foundation for our understanding of ecological patterns and dynamics. In particular, ecologists recognise the important role that animal behaviour plays in shaping ecological processes. An emerging area of interest in animal behaviour, the study of behavioural syndromes (animal personalities) considers how limited behavioural plasticity, as well as behavioural correlations affects an individual's fitness in diverse ecological contexts. In this article we explore how insights from the concept and study of behavioural syndromes provide fresh understanding of major issues in population ecology. We identify several general mechanisms for how population ecology phenomena can be influenced by a species or population's average behavioural type, by within-species variation in behavioural type, or by behavioural correlations across time or across ecological contexts. We note, in particular, the importance of behavioural type-dependent dispersal in spatial ecology. We then review recent literature and provide new syntheses for how these general mechanisms produce novel insights on five major issues in population ecology: (1) limits to species' distribution and abundance; (2) species interactions; (3) population dynamics; (4) relative responses to human-induced rapid environmental change; and (5) ecological invasions.     

Assessing variation in life‐history tactics within a population using mixture regression models: a practical guide for evolutionary ecologists

Mixed models are now well‐established methods in ecology and evolution because they allow accounting for and quantifying within‐ and between‐individual variation. However, the required normal distribution of the random effects can often be violated by the presence of clusters among subjects, which leads to multi‐modal distributions. In such cases, using what is known as mixture regression models might offer a more appropriate approach. These models are widely used in psychology, sociology, and medicine to describe the diversity of trajectories occurring within a population over time (e.g. psychological development, growth). In ecology and evolution, however, these models are seldom used even though understanding changes in individual trajectories is an active area of research in life‐history studies. Our aim is to demonstrate the value of using mixture models to describe variation in individual life‐history tactics within a population, and hence to promote the use of these models by ecologists and evolutionary ecologists. We first ran a set of simulations to determine whether and when a mixture model allows teasing apart latent clustering, and to contrast the precision and accuracy of estimates obtained from mixture models versus mixed models under a wide range of ecological contexts. We then used empirical data from long‐term studies of large mammals to illustrate the potential of using mixture models for assessing within‐population variation in life‐history tactics. Mixture models performed well in most cases, except for variables following a Bernoulli distribution and when sample size was small. The four selection criteria we evaluated [Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and two bootstrap methods] performed similarly well, selecting the right number of clusters in most ecological situations. We then showed that the normality of random effects implicitly assumed by evolutionary ecologists when using mixed models was often violated in life‐history data. Mixed models were quite robust to this violation in the sense that fixed effects were unbiased at the population level. However, fixed effects at the cluster level and random effects were better estimated using mixture models. Our empirical analyses demonstrated that using mixture models facilitates the identification of the diversity of growth and reproductive tactics occurring within a population. Therefore, using this modelling framework allows testing for the presence of clusters and, when clusters occur, provides reliable estimates of fixed and random effects for each cluster of the population. In the presence or expectation of clusters, using mixture models offers a suitable extension of mixed models, particularly when evolutionary ecologists aim at identifying how ecological and evolutionary processes change within a population. Mixture regression models therefore provide a valuable addition to the statistical toolbox of evolutionary ecologists. As these models are complex and have their own limitations, we provide recommendations to guide future users.     

Intercontinental community convergence of ecology and morphology in desert lizards

Evolutionary ecologists have long debated the extent to which communities in similar environments but different geographic regions exhibit convergence. On the one hand, if species' adaptations and community structure are determined by environmental features, convergence would be expected. However, if historical contingencies have long-lasting effects convergence would be unlikely. Most studies to date have emphasized the differences between communities in similar environments and little quantitative evidence for convergence exists. The application of comparative phylogenetic methods to ecological studies provides an opportunity to further investigate hypotheses of convergence. We compared the evolutionary patterns of structural ecology and morphology of 42 species of iguanian lizards from deserts of Australia and North America. Using a comparative approach, we found that evolutionary convergence of ecology and morphology occurs both in overall, community-wide patterns and in terms of pairs of highly similar intercontinental pairs of species. This result indicates that in these desert lizards, deterministic adaptive evolution shapes community patterns and overrides the historical contingencies unique to particular lineages.     

Whatever happened to economic anthropology?1

In the 1970s, economic anthropology, along with kinship and ecological anthropology, was regarded as a core discipline in the teaching of anthropology. The centrality of all these subjects was reflected in the debates of the time. For economic anthropology, understanding the articulation of modes of production was the problem; the holy trinity—tribe, peasant, capitalist—provided the key terms of the debate. These terms, and this problem, are history. The discipline of anthropology has been de‐cored over the past 30 years: economic anthropology, kinship and ecological anthropology are not even on the agenda in many universities today (ANU included). This presents us with a paradox because these academic trends are in inverse proportion to the importance of contemporary developments in the economy, the family and ecology as global problems facing humanity. This paradox must be addressed not by arguing for a rehabilitation of the core subjects of the 1970s—those days are long gone—but by taking a critical look at the implicit theories of value that inform anthropological thinking about the economy, the family and ecology today. I shall argue that, along with neoliberalism, ‘agency’ has been the key term of the new paradigm that emerged in the 1970s, that this paradigm is about to become history and that new ways of thinking about the economy will have to emerge as we all become victims of the ‘financialisation’ of Europe, the industrialisation of Asia and the desiccation of Australia.     

Invasion ecology goes to town: from disdain to sympathy

How can one understand the increasing interest in “urban invasions”, or biological invasions in urban environments? We argue that interest in urban invasions echoes a broader evolution in how ecologists view “the city” in relation to “the natural”. Previously stark categorical distinctions between urban and natural, human and wild, city and ecology have floundered. Drawing on conceptual material and an analysis of key texts, we first show how the ecological sciences in general—and then invasion science in particular—previously had a blind spot for cities, despite a number of important historical and continental European exceptions. Then, we document the advent of an urban turn in ecology and, more recently, in invasion ecology, and how this has challenged fundamental concepts about “nativity”, “naturalness”, and human agency in nature. The urban turn necessitates more explicit and direct attention to human roles and judgements. Ecology has moved from contempt (or indifference) for cities, towards interest or even sympathy.     

Advancing urban ecological studies: Frameworks,concepts, and results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Abstract Urban ecological studies have had a long history, but they have not been a component of mainstream ecology until recently. The growing interest of ecologists in urban systems provides an opportunity to articulate integrative frameworks, and identify research tools and approaches that can help achieve a broader ecological understanding of urban systems. Based on our experience in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), Long‐term Ecological Research project, located in metropolitan Baltimore, Maryland, USA, we identify several frameworks that may be useful in comparative urban studies, and may be worthy of consideration in other integrative urban ecosystem studies: (i) spatial patch dynamics of biophysical and social factors; (ii) the watershed as an integrative tool; and (iii) the human ecosystem framework. These frameworks build on empirical research investigating urban biota, nutrient and energy budgets, ecological footprints of cities, as well as biotic classifications aimed at urban planning. These frameworks bring together perspectives, measurements, and models from biophysical and social sciences. We illustrate their application in the BES, which is designed to investigate (i) the structure and change of the urban ecosystem; (ii) the fluxes of matter, energy, capital, and population in the metropolis; and (iii) how ecological information affects the quality of the local and regional environments. Exemplary results concerning urban stream nutrient flux, the ability of riparian zones to process nitrate pollution, and the lags in the relationships between vegetation structure and socio‐economic factors in specific neighbourhoods are presented. The current advances in urban ecological studies have profited greatly from the variety of integrative frameworks and tools that have been tested and applied in urban areas over the last decade. The field is poised to make significant progress as a result of ongoing conceptual and empirical consolidation.     

Renewal ecology: conservation for the Anthropocene

The global scale and rapidity of environmental change is challenging ecologists to reimagine their theoretical principles and management practices. Increasingly, historical ecological conditions are inadequate targets for restoration ecology, geographically circumscribed nature reserves are incapable of protecting all biodiversity, and the precautionary principle applied to management interventions no longer ensures avoidance of ecological harm. In addition, human responses to global environmental changes, such as migration, building of protective infrastructures, and land use change, are having their own negative environmental impacts. We use examples from wildlands, urban, and degraded environments, as well as marine and freshwater ecosystems, to show that human adaptation responses to rapid ecological change can be explicitly designed to benefit biodiversity. This approach, which we call “renewal ecology,” is based on acceptance that environmental change will have transformative effects on coupled human and natural systems and recognizes the need to harmonize biodiversity with human infrastructure, for the benefit of both.     

Spores and soil from six sides: interdisciplinarity and the environmental biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)

Environmentally transmitted diseases are comparatively poorly understood and managed, and their ecology is particularly understudied. Here we identify challenges of studying environmental transmission and persistence with a six‐sided interdisciplinary review of the biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis). Anthrax is a zoonotic disease capable of maintaining infectious spore banks in soil for decades (or even potentially centuries), and the mechanisms of its environmental persistence have been the topic of significant research and controversy. Where anthrax is endemic, it plays an important ecological role, shaping the dynamics of entire herbivore communities. The complex eco‐epidemiology of anthrax, and the mysterious biology of Bacillus anthracis during its environmental stage, have necessitated an interdisciplinary approach to pathogen research. Here, we illustrate different disciplinary perspectives through key advances made by researchers working in Etosha National Park, a long‐term ecological research site in Namibia that has exemplified the complexities of the enzootic process of anthrax over decades of surveillance. In Etosha, the role of scavengers and alternative routes (waterborne transmission and flies) has proved unimportant relative to the long‐term persistence of anthrax spores in soil and their infection of herbivore hosts. Carcass deposition facilitates green‐ups of vegetation to attract herbivores, potentially facilitated by the role of anthrax spores in the rhizosphere. The underlying seasonal pattern of vegetation, and herbivores' immune and behavioural responses to anthrax risk, interact to produce regular ‘anthrax seasons’ that appear to be a stable feature of the Etosha ecosystem. Through the lens of microbiologists, geneticists, immunologists, ecologists, epidemiologists, and clinicians, we discuss how anthrax dynamics are shaped at the smallest scale by population genetics and interactions within the bacterial communities up to the broadest scales of ecosystem structure. We illustrate the benefits and challenges of this interdisciplinary approach to disease ecology, and suggest ways anthrax might offer insights into the biology of other important pathogens. Bacillus anthracis, and the more recently emerged Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, share key features with other environmentally transmitted pathogens, including several zoonoses and panzootics of special interest for global health and conservation efforts. Understanding the dynamics of anthrax, and developing interdisciplinary research programs that explore environmental persistence, is a critical step forward for understanding these emerging threats.     

The importance of long‐term social‐ecological research for the future of restoration ecology

In the face of rapid environmental and cultural change, long‐term ecological research (LTER) and social‐ecological research (LTSER) are more important than ever. LTER contributes disproportionately to ecology and policy, evidenced by the greater proportion of LTER in higher impact journals and the disproportionate representation of LTER in reports informing policymaking. Historical evidence has played a significant role in restoration projects and it will continue to guide restoration into the future, but its use is often hampered by lack of information, leading to considerable uncertainties. By facilitating the storage and retrieval of historical information, LTSER will prove valuable for future restoration.     

How ecologists define drought,and why we should do better

Drought, widely studied as an important driver of ecosystem dynamics, is predicted to increase in frequency and severity globally. To study drought, ecologists must define or at least operationalize what constitutes a drought. How this is accomplished in practice is unclear, particularly given that climatologists have long struggled to agree on definitions of drought, beyond general variants of “an abnormal deficiency of water.” We conducted a literature review of ecological drought studies (564 papers) to assess how ecologists describe and study drought. We found that ecologists characterize drought in a wide variety of ways (reduced precipitation, low soil moisture, reduced streamflow, etc.), but relatively few publications (~32%) explicitly define what are, and are not, drought conditions. More troubling, a surprising number of papers (~30%) simply equated “dry conditions” with “drought” and provided little characterization of the drought conditions studied. For a subset of these, we calculated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values for the reported drought periods. We found that while almost 90% of the studies were conducted under conditions quantifiable as slightly to extremely drier than average, ~50% were within the range of normal climatic variability. We conclude that the current state of the ecological drought literature hinders synthesis and our ability to draw broad ecological inferences because drought is often declared but is not explicitly defined or well characterized. We suggest that future drought publications provide at least one of the following: (a) the climatic context of the drought period based on long‐term records; (b) standardized climatic index values; (c) published metrics from drought‐monitoring organizations; (d) a quantitative definition of what the authors consider to be drought conditions for their system. With more detailed and consistent quantification of drought conditions, comparisons among studies can be more rigorous, increasing our understanding of the ecological effects of drought.     

动物个性研究进展

"个性"是指不同时空条件下动物种群个体间行为的稳定差异。大量的理论和实验性研究表明,个性差异在动物界普遍存在,其是种群多度和分布、物种共存及群落构建的重要驱动因子。介绍了动物个性的概念、分类及衡量指标,将前人测量个性类型的方法加以总结;随后介绍了动物个性的生态学意义,尤其是个性对动物生活史策略、种群分布与多度、群落结构和动态、生态系统功能和过程以及疾病与信息传播等的影响。在此基础上,进一步分析了在人类活动增加等全球变化背景下,动物个性如何调控动物个体行为、种群和群落动态对这些环境变化的响应。阐述了动物个性的形成与维持机制,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。     

Combining field experiments and individual-based modeling to identify the dynamically relevant organizational scale in a field system

Community ecologists continually strive to build analytical models that realistically describe long‐term dynamics of the systems they study. A key step in this process is identifying which details are relevant for predicting dynamics. Currently, this remains a limiting step in development of analytical theory because experimental field ecology, which provides the key empirical insight, and theoretical ecology, which translates empirical knowledge into analytical theory, remain weakly linked. I illustrate how an individual‐based computational model of species interactions is a useful way to bridge the gulf between empirical research and theory development. I built a computational model that reproduced key natural history and biological detail of an old‐field interaction web composed of a predator species, a herbivore species and two plant groups that had been the subject of extensive previous field research. I examined, using simulation experiments, how individual behavior of herbivores in response to changing resource and predator abundance scaled to long‐term population‐level and community‐level dynamics. The simulation experiments revealed that the long‐term community dynamics could be highly predictable because of two counterintuitive reasons. First, seasonality was a strong forcing variable on the system that removed the possibility of serial dependence in population abundance over time. Second, because of seasonality, short‐term behavioral responses of herbivores played a much stronger role in shaping community structure than longer‐term processes such as density responses. So, simply knowing the short‐term responses of herbivores at the evolutionary ecological level was sufficient to forecast the long‐term outcome of experimental manipulations. This study shows that an individual‐based model, once it is calibrated to the real‐world field system, can provide key insight into the biological detail that analytical models should include to predict long‐term dynamics.     

Environmental correlates of annual survival differ between two ecologically similar and congeneric owls

Understanding how survival is affected by the environment is essential to gain insight into population dynamics and the evolution of life‐history traits as well as to identify environmental selection pressures. However, we still have little understanding of the relative effect of different environmental factors and their interactions on demographic traits and population dynamics. Here we used two long‐term, individual‐based datasets on Tawny Owl Strix aluco (1981–2010) and Ural Owl S. uralensis (1986–2010) to undertake capture‐mark‐recapture analysis of annual survival of adult females in response to three biologically meaningful environmental variables and their two‐way interactions. Despite the similar ecology of these two species, their survival was associated with different and uncorrelated environmental drivers. The main correlate of Tawny Owl survival was an inverse association with snow depth (winter severity). For Ural Owl, high food (vole) abundance improved survival during years with deep snow, but was less important during years with little snow. In addition, Ural Owl survival was strongly density‐dependent, whereas Tawny Owl survival was not. Our findings advise caution in extrapolating demographic inferences from one species to another, even when they are very closely related and ecologically similar. Analyses including only one or few potential environmental drivers of a species' survival may lead to incomplete conclusions because survival may be affected by several factors and their interactions.     

Beyond simple adaptation: Incorporating other evolutionary processes and concepts into eco-evolutionary dynamics

Studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics have integrated evolution with ecological processes at multiple scales (populations, communities and ecosystems) and with multiple interspecific interactions (antagonistic, mutualistic and competitive). However, evolution has often been conceptualised as a simple process: short-term directional adaptation that increases population growth. Here we argue that diverse other evolutionary processes, well studied in population genetics and evolutionary ecology, should also be considered to explore the full spectrum of feedback between ecological and evolutionary processes. Relevant but underappreciated processes include (1) drift and mutation, (2) disruptive selection causing lineage diversification or speciation reversal and (3) evolution driven by relative fitness differences that may decrease population growth. Because eco-evolutionary dynamics have often been studied by population and community ecologists, it will be important to incorporate a variety of concepts in population genetics and evolutionary ecology to better understand and predict eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature.     

Amazonian historical ecologies

Historical ecology may be defined as the undertaking of a diachronic analysis of living ecological systems, with the view to accounting more fully for their structural and functional properties. Historical ecology, more an approach or a research strategy than a paradigm, addresses a central question: 'How does environmental change relate to the historical development of human societies?' An integral part of the new ecological anthropology, historical ecology seeks to dereify the concepts of nature and culture, and to rethink critically the complexity of the biological world, particularly the problematic distinction between the wild and the domesticated, which has hitherto inspired natural science research on the diversity of biological life. This paper examines the ways in which historical ecology has been used to research nomadic bands subsisting with few or no domesticates in lowland South America. I argue that current knowledge of the Amazon biome, which is far more sophisticated than it was in the late 1940s and the early 1950s, when Steward edited the Handbook of South American Indians , allows us to rethink human occupation of, and adaptation to, the Amazon; to redefine the forces that have shaped the material dimensions of social life, and to recognize that Amazonian hunter-gatherers have played an active part in the making of the natural environment that they have occupied for millennia. I also argue that 'trekking', far from representing a necessary intermediary stage in the regression from horticulture to foraging, constitutes, in some cases, a sui generis solution to deep contradictory forces of a political, religious, and social character. Such internal processes may have long predated the Conquest and the disruptions it caused. I conclude that reliance on resources created in the past may be a characteristic shared by various trekking and foraging groups of the Upper Amazon.