Accounting for long‐term directional trends on year‐to‐year synchrony in species fluctuations

What determines the stability of communities under environmental fluctuations remains one of the most debated questions in ecology. Scholars generally agree that the similarity in year‐to‐year fluctuations between species is an important determinant of this stability. Concordant fluctuations in species abundances through time (synchrony) decrease stability while discordance in fluctuations (anti‐synchrony) should stabilize communities. Researchers have interpreted the community‐wide degree of synchrony in temporal fluctuations as the outcome of different processes. However, existing synchrony measures depend not only on year‐to‐year species fluctuations, but also on long‐term directional trends in species composition, for example due to land‐use or climate change. The neglected effect of directional trends in species composition could cause an apparent increase in synchrony that is not due to year‐to‐year fluctuations, as species that simultaneously increase (or decrease) in abundance over time will appear correlated, even if they fluctuate discordantly from year to year. The opposite pattern is also conceivable, where different species show contrasting trends in their abundances, thus overestimating year‐to‐year anti‐synchrony. Therefore, trends in species composition may limit our understanding of potential ecological mechanisms behind synchrony between species. We propose two easily implementable solutions, with corresponding R functions, for testing and accounting for the effect of trends in species composition on overall synchrony. The first approach is based on computing synchrony over the residuals of fitted species trends over time. The second approach, applicable to already existing indices, is based on three‐terms local variance, i.e. computing variance over three‐years‐long, movable windows. We demonstrate these methods using simulations and data from real plant communities under long‐term directional changes, discussing when one approach can be preferred. We show that accounting for long‐term temporal trends is necessary and that separation of effect of trends and year‐to‐year fluctuation provides a better understanding of ecological mechanisms and their connections with ecological theory.     

Traits linked with species invasiveness and community invasibility vary with time,stage and indicator of invasion in a long‐term grassland experiment

Much uncertainty remains about traits linked with successful invasion – the establishment and spread of non‐resident species into existing communities. Using a 20‐year experiment, where 50 non‐resident (but mostly native) grassland plant species were sown into savannah plots, we ask how traits linked with invasion depend on invasion stage (establishment, spread), indicator of invasion success (occupancy, relative abundance), time, environmental conditions, propagule rain, and traits of invaders and invaded communities. Trait data for 164 taxa showed that invader occupancy was primarily associated with traits of invaders, traits of recipient communities, and invader‐community interactions. Invader abundance was more strongly associated with community traits (e.g. proportion legume) and trait differences between invaders and the most similar resident species. Annuals and invaders with high‐specific leaf area were only successful early in stand development, whereas invaders with conservative carbon capture strategies persisted long‐term. Our results indicate that invasion is context‐dependent and long‐term experiments are required to comprehensively understand invasions.     

Nearly a decade‐long repeatable seasonal diversity patterns of bacterioplankton communities in the eutrophic Lake Donghu (Wuhan,China)

Uncovering which environmental factors govern community diversity patterns and how ecological processes drive community turnover are key questions related to understand the community assembly. However, the ecological mechanisms regulating long‐term variations of bacterioplankton communities in lake ecosystems remain poorly understood. Here we present nearly a decade‐long study of bacterioplankton communities from the eutrophic Lake Donghu (Wuhan, China) using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing with MiSeq platform. We found strong repeatable seasonal diversity patterns in terms of both common (detected in more than 50% samples) and dominant (relative abundance >1%) bacterial taxa turnover. Moreover, community composition tracked the seasonal temperature gradient, indicating that temperature is a key environmental factor controlling observed diversity patterns. Total phosphorus also contributed significantly to the seasonal shifts in bacterioplankton composition. However, any spatial pattern of bacterioplankton communities across the main lake areas within season was overwhelmed by their temporal variabilities. Phylogenetic analysis further indicated that 75%–82% of community turnover was governed by homogeneous selection due to consistent environmental conditions within seasons, suggesting that the microbial communities in Lake Donghu are mainly controlled by niche‐based processes. Therefore, dominant niches available within seasons might be occupied by similar combinations of bacterial taxa with modest dispersal rates throughout different lake areas.     

Alternative community compositional and dynamical states: the dual consequences of assembly history

1. Much work on ecological consequences of community assembly history has focused on the formation of history-induced alternative stable equilibria. We hypothesize that assembly history may affect not only community composition but also population dynamics, with assembled communities differing in species composition potentially residing in different dynamical states. 2. We provided an empirical test of the aforementioned hypothesis using a laboratory microcosm experiment that manipulated both the colonization order of three bacterivorous protist species in the presence of a protist predator and environmental productivity. 3. Both priority effects and random divergence emerged, resulting in two different community compositional states: one characterized by the dominance of one prey species and the other by the extinction of the same prey. While communities in the former state exhibited noncyclic dynamics, the majority of communities in the latter state exhibited cyclic dynamics driven by the interaction between another prey and the predator. 4. Temporal variability of total prey community biovolume consequently differed among communities with different histories. 5. Changing productivity altered priority effects on the structure and dynamics of communities experiencing only certain histories. 6. Our results support the dual (compositional and dynamical) consequences of assembly history and emphasize the importance of incorporating the dynamical view into the field of community assembly.     

Long‐term dynamics of winter and summer annual communities in the Chihuahuan Desert

Abstract. Winter and summer annuals in the Chihuahuan Desert have been intensively studied in recent years but little is known about the similarities and differences in the dynamics between these two communities. Using 15 yr of census data from permanent quadrats, this paper compared the characteristics and temporal dynamics of these two distinct, spatially co‐existent but temporally segregated communities. Although the total number of summer annual species recorded during our 15 yr of observation was higher than winter annuals, the mean number of species observed each year was higher in the winter community. The winter community exhibited lower temporal variation in total plant abundance and populations of individual species, lower species turnover rate and higher evenness than the summer community. The rank abundances of species in winter were significantly positively correlated for a period of up to 7 yr while in summer significant positive correlations in rank abundance disappeared after 2 to 3 yr. The higher seasonal species diversity (i.e. number of species observed in each season) in winter rather than the overall special pool (over 15 yr) may be responsible for the greater community stability of winter annuals. The difference in long‐term community dynamics between the two communities of annual plants are likely due to the differences in total species pool, life history traits (e.g. seed size), and seasonal climatic regimes.     

Extrapolating multi‐decadal plant community changes based on medium‐term experiments can be risky: evidence from high‐latitude tundra

For most experimental studies the short‐term responses to manipulation often differ from the long‐term changes in the community composition, dynamics or functioning. Such discrepancy limits the translation of experimental results into key ecological topics such as global environmental change. Here we analyzed plant community dynamics from a 23‐year transplant experiment in the Fennoscandian mountain tundra and explored how well the pattern of responses over the first 12 years of the experiment can predict longer‐term changes. Sod‐blocks of tundra heath vegetation were transplanted to a snowbed 150 m higher in elevation from their origin, where, with contrasting levels of soil wetness, half of the transplants were protected from mammalian herbivores. Throughout the experiment, community changes strongly depended on both plant functional types and experimental treatments. The first 12 years were characterized by a response to transplantation to the snowbed showing a strong increase of graminoid and a decrease of shrub abundances in the transplants. In the longer term, the community divergence increased in particular in response to grazing and soil wetness within the snowbed, while graminoid dominance disappeared. Markov chain models captured the main trends during the first 12 years but they failed to predict their relative abundance after 23 years. In particular, the late dominance of bryophytes in the wet snowbed, the recovery of shrubs in the dry exclosures, and the subordinate status of graminoids deviated from the extrapolation based on the medium‐term trends. Despite clear community dynamical trajectories detected in the first decade, the differences in the temporal scale of both treatment effects and plant functional type responses limited their ability to extrapolate longer‐term trajectories. We find that increasing focus on long‐term experiments is a crucial step to understanding the processes involved in the response of plant communities to global environmental change.     

Predicting coral community recovery using multi‐species population dynamics models

Predicting whether, how, and to what degree communities recover from disturbance remain major challenges in ecology. To predict recovery of coral communities we applied field survey data of early recovery dynamics to a multi‐species integral projection model that captured key demographic processes driving coral population trajectories, notably density‐dependent larval recruitment. After testing model predictions against field observations, we updated the model to generate projections of future coral communities. Our results indicated that communities distributed across an island landscape followed different recovery trajectories but would reassemble to pre‐disturbed levels of coral abundance, composition, and size, thus demonstrating persistence in the provision of reef habitat and other ecosystem services. Our study indicates that coral community dynamics are predictable when accounting for the interplay between species life‐history, environmental conditions, and density‐dependence. We provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the ecological processes underlying community trajectory and characteristics important to ecosystem functioning.     

Long‐term farming systems and last crop sown shape the species and functional composition of the arable weed seed bank

Questions: The assembly of arable weed communities is the result of local filtering by agricultural management and crop competition. Therefore, soil seed banks can reflect the effects of long‐term cumulative field management and crop sequences on weed communities. Moreover, soil seed banks provide strong estimates of future weed problems but also of potential arable plant diversity and associated ecological functions. For this, we evaluated the effects of different long‐term farming systems under the same crop rotation sequence on the abundance, diversity and community assembly of weed seed bank, as well as on the functional diversity and composition. Location: DOK (biodynamic [D], bioorganic [O], conventional [K]) long‐term trial, Therwil, Switzerland. Methods: The effects of long‐term contrasted farming systems (i.e., biodynamic, organic, conventional, mineral and unfertilised systems) and last crop sown (i.e., wheat and maize) were evaluated on different indicators of species and functional diversity and composition of the weed soil seed bank. Results: The results showed significant influences of 40 years of contrasted farming systems on the diversity and composition of the seed bank, with higher diversities being found in unfertilised and organic farming systems, but also higher abundances than those found under conventional systems. Organic farming also allowed higher functional richness, dispersion and redundancy. Different farming systems triggered shifts in species and functional assemblies. Conclusions: The results highlight the importance of organic management for the maintenance of a diverse arable plant community and its functions. However, such results emphasise the need for appropriate yearly management to reduce the abundance of settled weediness and prevent affecting crop production. The farm management filtered community composition based on functional traits. Although the soil seed bank buffers the long‐term farming and crop sequence, the last crop sown and, thus, the yearly management were important determinants of seed bank composition.     

Long‐term effects of the abandonment of grazing on steppe‐like grasslands

Question: What are the consequences of grazing abandonment on the Stipa lessingiana dominated steppe‐like grasslands? What is the relative importance of management and environmental factors in causing variation in species composition and abundance in the continuously grazed and abandoned grassland stands? Location: Transylvanian Lowland, Romania. Methods: Repeated vegetation mapping of a grassland stand, where grazing was abandoned 35 years ago; re‐sampling six grassland stands surveyed 29–57 years ago. For revealing long‐term changes in species composition and rank abundance PCoA ordination was applied. The relative importance of management and environmental factors in structuring vegetation were explored by CCA ordination. Diversity, evenness and the relative number and abundance of red‐listed species were compared between managed and abandoned stands. Results: Our results pointed out that grasslands which were formerly grazed and dominated by S. lessingiana, in the long‐term absence of grazing, have been transformed into a S. pulcherrima dominated type. Management, probably by creating bare surfaces and preventing litter accumulation, had the strongest effect on the species composition and abundance in the grasslands. Abandoned grassland stands had lower diversity and evenness compared to continuously grazed stands. While at the same time, the relative number of threatened, rare species did not differ between managed and abandoned sites. Conclusion: Maintaining extensively grazed, as well as un‐managed, Stipa dominated grasslands would be important in order to create various habitat conditions for plant species, especially threatened and rare species, and promote diversity on the landscape scale.     

Wild bee community change over a 26‐year chronosequence of restored tallgrass prairie

Restoration efforts often focus on plants, but additionally require the establishment and long‐term persistence of diverse groups of nontarget organisms, such as bees, for important ecosystem functions and meeting restoration goals. We investigated long‐term patterns in the response of bees to habitat restoration by sampling bee communities along a 26‐year chronosequence of restored tallgrass prairie in north‐central Illinois, U.S.A. Specifically, we examined how bee communities changed over time since restoration in terms of (1) abundance and richness, (2) community composition, and (3) the two components of beta diversity, one‐to‐one species replacement, and changes in species richness. Bee abundance and raw richness increased with restoration age from the low level of the pre‐restoration (agricultural) sites to the target level of the remnant prairie within the first 2–3 years after restoration, and these high levels were maintained throughout the entire restoration chronosequence. Bee community composition of the youngest restored sites differed from that of prairie remnants, but 5–7 years post‐restoration the community composition of restored prairie converged with that of remnants. Landscape context, particularly nearby wooded land, was found to affect abundance, rarefied richness, and community composition. Partitioning overall beta diversity between sites into species replacement and richness effects revealed that the main driver of community change over time was the gradual accumulation of species, rather than one‐to‐one species replacement. At the spatial and temporal scales we studied, we conclude that prairie restoration efforts targeting plants also successfully restore bee communities.     

Non‐native plants have greater impacts because of differing per‐capita effects and nonlinear abundance–impact curves

Invasive, non‐native species can have tremendous impacts on biotic communities, where they reduce the abundance and diversity of local species. However, it remains unclear whether impacts of non‐native species arise from their high abundance or whether each non‐native individual has a disproportionate impact – that is, a higher per‐capita effect – on co‐occurring species compared to impacts by native species. Using a long‐term study of wetlands, we asked how temporal variation in dominant native and non‐native plants impacted the abundance and richness of other plants in the recipient community. Non‐native plants reached higher abundances than natives and had greater per‐capita effects. The abundance–impact relationship between plant abundance and richness was nonlinear. Compared with increasing native abundance, increasing non‐native abundance was associated with steeper declines in richness because of greater per‐capita effects and nonlinearities in the abundance–impact relationship. Our study supports eco‐evolutionary novelty of non‐natives as a driver of their outsized impacts on communities.     

Direct and indirect interactions co‐determine species composition in nurse plant systems

Facilitation by nurse plants plays an important role in determining community composition in severe environments. Although the unidirectional effect of nurses on beneficiary species has received considerable research interest, nurse‐mediated interactions among beneficiary species (so‐called indirect interactions) are less known. Consequently, community composition in nurse plant systems is generally considered as a simple consequence of the facilitative effect of the nurse even though beneficiary species may significantly contribute to community assembly and modulate the direct nurse effects on the community. In an observational study we assessed nurse effects and nurse‐mediated beneficiary interactions in two contrasting nurse plant systems in dry environments using a newly developed framework. We quantified plant–plant interaction intensity using the relative interaction index (RII) at the community and species level for three Retama sphaerocarpa shrub size‐classes in a semiarid shrubland and four Arenaria tetraquetra cushion plant communities differing in aspect and elevation in dry alpine gravel habitats. The observed RII was split into nurse and beneficiary effects, and related to individual mass, species frequency and abundance using generalized linear mixed models. Results showed predominantly positive nurse effects and negative beneficiary interactions. The effect size of nurse plants, however, was significantly higher than the effect size of beneficiary species in both systems. Individual plant mass and abundance of species was dependent on the combined effects of nurse and beneficiary species whereas species occurrence was related to nurse effects only. Despite evident differences, the semiarid and alpine nurse plant systems showed strong functional parallelisms. We found interdependence between the effects of nurse and beneficiary species on beneficiary plant assemblages emphasizing their combined role on community assembly in both systems. Our results highlight the need to consider indirect interactions to understand fully plant community dynamics.     

Shift in community structure in an early‐successional Mediterranean shrubland driven by long‐term experimental warming and drought and natural extreme droughts

Global warming and recurring drought are expected to accelerate water limitation for plant communities in semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems and produce directional shifts in structure and composition that are not easily detected, and supporting evidence is scarce. We conducted a long‐term (17 years) nocturnal‐warming (+0.6°C) and drought (?40% rainfall) experiments in an early‐successional Mediterranean shrubland to study the changes in community structure and composition, contrasting functional groups and dominant species, and the superimposed effects of natural extreme drought. Species richness decreased in both the warming and drought treatments. Responses to the moderate warming were associated with decreases in herb abundance, and responses to the drought were associated with decreases in both herb and shrub abundances. The drought also significantly decreased community diversity and evenness. Changes in abundance differed between herbs (decreases) and shrubs (increases or no changes). Both warming and drought, especially drought, increased the relative species richness and abundance of shrubs, favoring the establishment of shrubs. Both warming and drought produced significant shifts in plant community composition. Experimental warming shifted the community composition from Erica multiflora toward Rosmarinus officinalis, and drought consistently shifted the composition toward Globularia alypum. The responses in biodiversity (e.g., community biodiversity, changes of functional groups and compositional shifts) were also strongly correlated with atmospheric drought (SPEI) in winter–spring and/or summer, indicating sensitivity to water limitation in this early‐successional Mediterranean ecosystem, especially to natural extreme droughts. Our results suggest that the shifts in species assembles and community diversity and composition are accelerated by the long‐term nocturnal‐warming and drought, combined with natural severe droughts, and that the magnitude of the impacts of climate change is also correlated with the successional status of ecosystem. The results thus highlight the necessity for assessing the impacts on ecosystemic functioning and services and developing effective measures for conserving biodiversity.     

Global‐scale species distributions predict temperature‐related changes in species composition of rocky shore communities in Britain

Changes in rocky shore community composition as responses to climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic warming can be shown by changes in average species thermal affinities. In this study, we derived thermal affinities for European Atlantic rocky intertidal species by matching their known distributions to patterns in average annual sea surface temperature. Average thermal affinities (the Community Temperature Index, CTI) tracked patterns in sea surface temperature from Portugal to Norway, but CTI for communities of macroalgae and plant species changed less than those composed of animal species. This reduced response was in line with the expectation that communities with a smaller range of thermal affinities among species would change less in composition along thermal gradients and over time. Local‐scale patterns in CTI over wave exposure gradients suggested that canopy macroalgae allow species with ranges centred in cooler than local temperatures (‘cold‐affinity’) to persist in otherwise too‐warm conditions. In annual surveys of rocky shores, communities of animal species in Shetland showed a shift in dominance towards warm‐affinity species (‘thermophilization’) with local warming from 1980 to 2018 but the community of plant and macroalgal species did not. From 2002 to 2018, communities in southwest Britain showed the reverse trend in CTI: declining average thermal affinities over a period of modest temperature decline. Despite the cooling, trends in species abundance were in line with the general mechanism of direction and magnitude of long‐term trends depending on the difference between species thermal affinities and local temperatures. Cold‐affinity species increased during cooling and warm‐affinity ones decreased. The consistency of responses across different communities and with general expectations based on species thermal characteristics suggests strong predictive accuracy of responses of community composition to anthropogenic warming.     

Forest bees are replaced in agricultural and urban landscapes by native species with different phenologies and life‐history traits

Anthropogenic landscapes are associated with biodiversity loss and large shifts in species composition and traits. These changes predict the identities of winners and losers of future global change, and also reveal which environmental variables drive a taxon's response to land use change. We explored how the biodiversity of native bee species changes across forested, agricultural, and urban landscapes. We collected bee community data from 36 sites across a 75,000 km² region, and analyzed bee abundance, species richness, composition, and life‐history traits. Season‐long bee abundance and richness were not detectably different between natural and anthropogenic landscapes, but community phenologies differed strongly, with an early spring peak followed by decline in forests, and a more extended summer season in agricultural and urban habitats. Bee community composition differed significantly between all three land use types, as did phylogenetic composition. Anthropogenic land use had negative effects on the persistence of several life‐history strategies, including early spring flight season and brood parasitism, which may indicate adaptation to conditions in forest habitat. Overall, anthropogenic communities are not diminished subsets of contemporary natural communities. Rather, forest species do not persist in anthropogenic habitats, but are replaced by different native species and phylogenetic lineages preadapted to open habitats. Characterizing compositional and functional differences is crucial for understanding land use as a global change driver across large regional scales.     

Resource availability mediates the importance of priority effects in plant community assembly and ecosystem function

Assembly history, including the order in which species arrive into a community, can influence long‐term community structure; however we know less about how timing of species arrival may alter assembly especially under varying resource conditions. To explore how the timing of species arrival interacts with resource availability to alter community assembly, we constructed experimental plant communities and manipulated the interval between plantings of groups of seedlings (0, 5, 10, 15 or 20 days) at low and high levels of soil nutrient supply. To see if community changes influenced ecosystem‐scale processes, we measured parameters across the plant–soil continuum (e.g. plant biomass and net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange). We found that the timing of species arrival had a large impact on community assembly, but the size of the effect depended on soil fertility. As planting interval increased, plant communities diverged further from the control, but the divergence was stronger at high than at low nutrient supply. Our data suggest that at high nutrient supply, early‐planted species preempted light resources more quickly, thus preventing the successful establishment of later arriving species even at short planting intervals. Finally, we found that assembly related divergence in plant communities scaled to impact ecosystem‐level characteristics such as green leaf chemistry, but had little effect on total community biomass and net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ and water vapor. Our data indicate that the effect of a stochastic factor, here the timing of species arrival on community composition, depends on the resource level under which the community assembles.     

Faunal response to sea‐level and climate change in a short‐lived seaway: Jurassic of the Western Interior,USA

Understanding how regional ecosystems respond to sea‐level and environmental perturbations is a main challenge in palaeoecology. Here we use quantitative abundance estimates, integrated within a sequence stratigraphic and environmental framework, to reconstruct benthic community changes through the 13 myr history of the Jurassic Sundance Seaway in the western United States. Sundance Seaway communities are notable for their low richness and high dominance relative to most areas globally in the Jurassic, and this probably reflects steep temperature and salinity gradients along the 2000 km length of the Seaway that hindered colonization of species from the open ocean. Ordination of samples shows a main turnover event at the Middle–Upper Jurassic transition, which coincided with a shift from carbonate to siliciclastic depositional systems in the Seaway, probably initiated by northward drift from subtropical latitudes to more humid temperate latitudes, and possibly global cooling. Turnover was not uniform across the onshore–offshore gradient, but was higher in offshore environments. The higher resilience of onshore communities to third‐order sea‐level fluctuations and to the change from a carbonate to a siliciclastic system was driven by a few abundant eurytopic species that persisted from the opening to the closing of the Seaway. Lower stability in offshore facies was instead controlled by the presence of more volatile stenotopic species. Such increased onshore stability in community composition contrasts with the well‐documented onshore increase in taxonomic turnover rates, and this study underscores how ecological analyses of relative abundance may contrast with taxonomically based analyses. We also demonstrate the importance of a stratigraphic palaeobiological approach to reconstructing the links between environmental and faunal gradients, and how their evolution through time produces local stratigraphic changes in community composition.     

Community assembly in Lake Tanganyika cichlid fish: quantifying the contributions of both niche‐based and neutral processes

The cichlid family features some of the most spectacular examples of adaptive radiation. Evolutionary studies have highlighted the importance of both trophic adaptation and sexual selection in cichlid speciation. However, it is poorly understood what processes drive the composition and diversity of local cichlid species assemblages on relatively short, ecological timescales. Here, we investigate the relative importance of niche‐based and neutral processes in determining the composition and diversity of cichlid communities inhabiting various environmental conditions in the littoral zone of Lake Tanganyika, Zambia. We collected data on cichlid abundance, morphometrics, and local environments. We analyzed relationships between mean trait values, community composition, and environmental variation, and used a recently developed modeling technique (STEPCAM) to estimate the contributions of niche‐based and neutral processes to community assembly. Contrary to our expectations, our results show that stochastic processes, and not niche‐based processes, were responsible for the majority of cichlid community assembly. We also found that the relative importance of niche‐based and neutral processes was constant across environments. However, we found significant relationships between environmental variation, community trait means, and community composition. These relationships were caused by niche‐based processes, as they disappeared in simulated, purely neutrally assembled communities. Importantly, these results can potentially reconcile seemingly contrasting findings in the literature about the importance of either niche‐based or neutral‐based processes in community assembly, as we show that significant trait relationships can already be found in nearly (but not completely) neutrally assembled communities; that is, even a small deviation from neutrality can have major effects on community patterns.     

Shared environmental responses drive co‐occurrence patterns in river bird communities

Positive or negative patterns of co‐occurrence might imply an influence of biotic interactions on community structure. However, species may co‐occur simply because of shared environmental responses. Here, we apply two complementary modelling methodologies – a probabilistic model of significant pairwise associations and a hierarchical multivariate probit regression model – to 1) attribute co‐occurrence patterns in 100 river bird communities to either shared environmental responses or to other ecological mechanisms such as interaction with heterospecifics, and 2) examine the strength of evidence for four alternative models of community structure. Species co‐occurred more often than would be expected by random community assembly and the species composition of bird communities was highly structured. Co‐occurrence patterns were primarily explained by shared environmental responses; species’ responses to the environmental variables were highly divergent, with both strong positive and negative environmental correlations occurring. We found limited evidence for behaviour‐driven assemblage patterns in bird communities at a large spatial scale, although statistically significant positive associations amongst some species suggested the operation of facilitative mechanisms such as heterospecific attraction. This lends support to an environmental filtering model of community assembly as being the principle mechanism shaping river bird community structure. Consequently, species interactions may be reduced to an ancillary role in some avifaunal communities, meaning if shared environmental responses are not quantified studies of co‐occurrence may overestimate the role of species interactions in shaping community structure.     

Long‐term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

Question: Are trees sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Does sensitivity of forest communities to climatic variability depend on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long‐term dataset (1967–2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and community dynamics for forest stands that differed in initial species composition (i.e., chestnut oak, oak–hickory, pine, and yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the four‐decade study period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased in biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand‐level responses to climatic variability were related to the responses of component species, except in pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in pine stands, decreased over time due to periodic outbreaks of pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). These outbreaks at Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: The results indicate that sensitivity of developing forests to climatic variability is stand type‐dependent, and hence is a function of species composition. However, in the long term, direct effects of climatic variability on forest dynamics may be small relative to autogenic successional processes or climate‐related insect outbreaks. Empirical studies testing for interactions between forest succession and climatic variability are needed.