Safety first: terrestrial predators drive selection of highly specific nesting sites in colonial‐breeding birds

Nesting is a critical yet hazardous life stage for many birds. For colonial‐breeding birds, the conspicuousness of the colony to predators suggests immense pressure to select optimal colonial nesting sites. But what drives selection of those sites? As with solitary nesting birds, reducing access by predators may be the single most important factor. If so, knowledge of the predators involved and the attributes of different potential colony sites can allow us to predict the features that make a site especially safe. We examined the attributes of trees used by breeding colonies of metallic starlings Aplonis metallica in tropical Australia, and experimentally tested if those attributes prevented nest access by predatory snakes. Our surveys confirmed that tree choice by starling nesting colonies is highly non‐random, with all colonies located in tall trees in rainforest clearings, with no low branches and smooth bark. Experimental tests demonstrated that the climbing ability of predatory snakes depends upon bark rugosity, and that colony access by snakes depends on tree attributes such as bark rugosity and canopy connectivity. Our study confirms that colonial‐nesting starlings select colony sites that provide a safe refuge from predation. Intense predation pressure may have driven the evolution of stringent breeding habitat criteria in many other species of colonial‐breeding birds.     

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago – Svalbard,Norway

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore–predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long‐term (multidecadal) demographic, population‐ and ecosystem‐based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.     

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher‐order predators. Here, we compare the long‐term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice‐free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long‐term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia.     

Increasing nest predation will be insufficient to maintain polar bear body condition in the face of sea ice loss

Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species‐specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent‐based model of the predator–prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species‐specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice‐free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land‐based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator–prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems.     

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top‐predator track ocean warming rates

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long‐lived, wide‐ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea‐surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large‐scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom‐up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large‐scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.     

Colonial breeding reduces nest predation in the common gull (Larus canus)

It is often suggested that colonial breeding reduces nest predation for birds with a high defence capacity, but experimental comparison of predation at solitary and colonial nests is seldom feasible within a single species. We here report on such a test in the common gull (Larus canus). The rate of predation on experimental eggs was significantly lower near colonies than near solitary gull nests, and the eggs survived longer at the edge of a colony than farther away. Communal mobbing of nest predators is the likely reason. In both of two years, almost all nests of solitary gulls were destroyed by predators, while most clutches survived in colonies. Nest predation hence selects strongly for colonial breeding in the present population of common gulls.     

Corvids congregate to breeding colonies of a burrow‐nesting seabird

Egg predation is a major cause of reproductive failure among birds, and can compromise the viability of affected populations. Some egg predators aggregate near colonially breeding birds to exploit the seasonal increase of prey resources. We investigated spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of an egg predator (little raven Corvus mellori; Corvidae) to identify whether ravens aggregate spatially or temporally to coincide with any of three potential prey species: burrow‐nesting little penguin (Eudyptula minor; Spheniscidae), short‐tailed shearwater (Ardenna tenuirostris; Procellariidae), and surface‐nesting silver gull (Chroicocephalus novaehollandiae; Laridae). We derived spatially explicit density estimates of little ravens using distance sampling along line transects throughout a calendar year, which encompassed little penguin, short‐tailed shearwater and silver gull breeding and non‐breeding seasons. High raven abundance coincided temporally with penguin and gull egg laying periods but not with that of shearwaters. The spatial distribution of raven density corresponded with the little penguin colony but not with shearwater or gull colonies. Thus, the presence of little penguin eggs in burrows correlated strongly with little raven activity, and this implies that little ravens may have learnt to exploit the plentiful subsurface food resource of little penguin eggs. Corvid management may be required to maintain the viability of this socially and economically important penguin colony.     

An avian terrestrial predator of the Arctic relies on the marine ecosystem during winter

Top predators of the arctic tundra are facing a long period of very low prey availability during winter and subsidies from other ecosystems such as the marine environment may help to support their populations. Satellite tracking of snowy owls, a top predator of the tundra, revealed that most adult females breeding in the Canadian Arctic overwinter at high latitudes in the eastern Arctic and spend several weeks (up to 101 d) on the sea‐ice between December and April. Analysis of high‐resolution satellite images of sea‐ice indicated that owls were primarily gathering around open water patches in the ice, which are commonly used by wintering seabirds, a potential prey. Such extensive use of sea‐ice by a tundra predator considered a small mammal specialist was unexpected, and suggests that marine resources subsidize snowy owl populations in winter. As sea‐ice regimes in winter are expected to change over the next decades due to climate warming, this may affect the wintering strategy of this top predator and ultimately the functioning of the tundra ecosystem.     

Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming

Climate warming and associated sea ice reductions in Antarctica have modified habitat conditions for some species. These include the congeneric Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins, which now demonstrate remarkable population responses to regional warming. However, inconsistencies in the direction of population changes between species at different study sites complicate the understanding of causal processes. Here, we show that at the South Orkney Islands where the three species breed sympatrically, the less ice‐adapted gentoo penguins increased significantly in numbers over the last 26 years, whereas chinstrap and Adélie penguins both declined. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long‐term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. Periodical warm events, with teleconnections to the tropical Pacific, caused cycles in sea ice leading to reduced prey biomass, and simultaneous interannual population decreases in the three penguin species. With the loss of sea ice, Adélie penguins were less buffered against the environment, their numbers fluctuated greatly and their population response was strong and linear. Chinstrap penguins, considered to be better adapted to ice‐free conditions, were affected by discrete events of locally increased ice cover, but showed less variable, nonlinear responses to sea ice loss. Gentoo penguins were temporarily affected by negative anomalies in regional sea ice, but persistent sea ice reductions were likely to increase their available niche, which is likely to be substantially segregated from that of their more abundant congeners. Thus, the regional consequences of global climate perturbations on the sea ice phenology affect the marine ecosystem, with repercussions for penguin food supply and competition for resources. Ultimately, variability in penguin populations with warming reflects the local balance between penguin adaptation to ice conditions and trophic‐mediated changes cascading from global climate forcing.     

Can redistribution of breeding colonies on a landscape mitigate changing predation danger?

The reproductive success of colonially breeding species depends in part upon a trade‐off between the benefit of a dilution effect against nestling predation within larger colonies and colony conspicuousness. However, there may be no net survivorship benefit of dilution if smaller colonies are sufficiently inconspicuous. This raises the question about how the size distribution of breeding colonies on a landscape might change as the predation danger for nestlings changes. In southwest British Columbia, Canada, bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus populations have increased exponentially at ～5% per year in recent decades and prey upon nestlings of colonial breeding great blue herons Ardea herodias faninni. Motivated by field data on reproductive success in relation to colony size, modeling is used to ask under which circumstances trading off a dilution benefit against colony conspicuousness can improve population reproductive success. That is, which colonial nesting distribution, dispersed and cryptic versus clumped and conspicuous, best mitigates predation danger on nestlings? When predators are territorial, the modeling predicts a dispersed nesting strategy as attack rate increases, but not as predator numbers increase. When predators are non‐territorial, the modeling predicts a dispersed nesting strategy as predator numbers and/or attack rates increase. When predators are both territorial and non‐territorial, colonial nesting within a predator's territory improves reproductive success when attack rates are low. This suggests nesting in association with territorial predators may offer decreased levels of predation when compared with nesting amongst non‐territorial predators. Thus a change in the colony size distribution of colonially breeding species might be anticipated on a landscape experiencing a change in predation danger.     

Predation by cats could lead to the extinction of the Mediterranean endemic Yelkouan Shearwater Puffinus yelkouan at a major breeding site

Feral cats are considered to be one of the main harmful invasive species for island species. Adult shearwaters are highly vulnerable to predation by cats. The population of the Yelkouan Shearwater Puffinus yelkouan, a species endemic to the Mediterranean, is predicted to decline, leaving only a few large breeding colonies, due to the invasion of cats. The impact of cats on the Shearwater population of Le Levant Island, one of the major breeding sites for this species, was evaluated by studying cat diet over a 2‐year period. The predation rate obtained was then included in a Shearwater demographic model. Cats preyed upon rabbits, rats and Shearwaters, with a peak of predation on Shearwaters immediately upon their arrival at the colony. Cat predation was heavy and responsible for the yearly death of about 810–3241 birds. This could lead to the extinction of the Le Levant colony within the next four decades and perhaps within just a few years. Cat predation on prospecting individuals, a parameter essential to assess the real impact of predation, may not have an immediate effect on the Shearwater breeding population but can accelerate population extinction. Cat predation must be reduced or removed to prevent the extinction of one of the most important breeding sites for this species.     

Do predators limit the abundance of alternative prey? Experiments with vole‐eating avian and mammalian predators

Predation has been invoked as a factor synchronizing the population oscillations of sympatric prey species, either because predators kill prey unselectively (the Shared Predation Hypothesis; hereafter SPH), or because predators switch to alternative prey after a density decline in their main prey (the Alternative Prey Hypothesis; APH). A basic assumption of the APH is that the impact of predators on alternative prey depends more on the density of main prey than on the predator/alternative prey ratio. Both SPH and APH assume that the impact of predators on alternative prey is at least periodically strong enough to depress prey populations. To examine these assumptions, we utilized data from replicated field experiments in large areas where we reduced the breeding densities of avian predators during three years and the numbers of least weasels (Mustela nivalis) in two years when vole populations declined. In addition, we reduced the breeding densities of avian predators in two years when vole populations were high. The reduction of least weasels increased the abundance of their alternative prey, small birds breeding on the ground, but did not affect the abundance of common shrews (Sorex araneus). In years when vole populations declined, the reduction of avian predators increased the abundance of their alternative prey, common shrews and small birds. Therefore, vole‐eating predators do at least periodically depress the abundance of their alternative prey. At high vole densities, the reduction of avian predators did not increase the abundance of common shrews, although the ratio of avian predators to alternative prey was similar to years when vole populations declined, which supported APH. In contrast, the abundance of small birds increased after the reduction of avian predators also at high vole densities, which supported SPH. The manipulations had no obvious effect on the number of game birds, which are only occasionally killed by these small‐sized predators. We conclude that in communities where most predators are small or specialize on a single prey type, the synchronizing impact of predation is restricted to a few similar‐sized species.     

Predators and the breeding bird: behavioral and reproductive flexibility under the risk of predation

A growing body of work suggests that breeding birds have a significant capacity to assess and respond, over ecological time, to changes in the risk of predation to both themselves and their eggs or nestlings. This review investigates the nature of this flexibility in the face of predation from both behavioural and reproductive perspectives, and also explores several directions for future research. Most available work addresses different aspects of nest predation. A substantial change in breeding location is perhaps the best documented response to nest predation, but such changes are not always observed and not necessarily the best strategy. Changes in nesting microhabitat (to more concealed locations) following predation are known to occur. Surprisingly little work addresses the proactive avoidance of areas with many nest predators, but such avoidance is probably widespread. Individual birds could conceivably adopt anti‐predator strategies based on the nest predators actually present in an area, but such effects have yet to be demonstrated. In fact, the ways in which birds assess the risk of nest predation is unclear. Nest defence in birds has historically received much attention, but little is known about how it interacts with other aspects of decision‐making by parents. Other studies concentrate on predation risk to adults. Some findings suggest that risk to adults themselves influences territory location, especially relative to raptor nests. An almost completely unexplored area concerns the sorts of social protection from predators that might exist during the breeding season. Flocking typical of the non‐breeding season appears unusual while breeding, but a mated pair may sometimes act as a “flock of two”. Opportunistic heterospecific sociality may exist, with heterospecific protector species associations more prevalent than currently appreciated. The dynamics of singing during the breeding season may also respond to variation in predation risk, but empirical research on this subject is limited. Furthermore, a few theoretical and empirical studies suggest that changes in predation risk also influence the behaviour of lekking males. The major influence of predators on avian life histories is undoubtedly expressed at a broad phylogenetic scale, but several studies hint at much flexibility on an ecological time scale. Some species may forgo breeding completely if the risk of nest predation is too high, and a few studies document smaller clutch sizes in response to an increase in nest predation. Recent evidence suggests that a female may produce smaller eggs rather than smaller clutches following an increase in nest predation risk. Such an increase may also influence decisions about intraspecific brood parasitism. There are no clear examples of changes in clutch/egg size with changes in risk experienced by adults, but parental responses to predators have clear consequences for offspring fitness. Changes in risk to adults may also influence body mass changes across the breeding season, although research here is sparse. The topics highlighted herein are all in need more empirical attention, and more experimental field work whenever feasible.     

Spatial contraction in a large gull colony in relation to the position of arctic fox dens

Many species of colonial ground-nesting birds are known to be sensitive to predation by terrestrial predators. The response of prey under the pressure of predation can either be direct (depletion of prey) or indirect due to prey avoiding the predator. We studied the recolonization of arctic foxes into a large and growing breeding colony of lesser black-backed gulls. The gull colony reached the size of 20,000 pairs during the period of no foxes. The number of breeding gulls continued to increase after the colonization of foxes and reached a maximum of 40,000 pairs about 15 years later. During the same time period, the spatial coverage of the gull colony shrunk from 31.4 down to 18.6 km², and the change in distribution was closely linked with position of fox dens, which ranged in number from one to three annually. In 2005, the number of breeding gulls decreased slightly with an ongoing shrinkage in spatial coverage. Food analyses from fox scats and stomachs showed that birds of the order Charadriiformes, particularly gulls, were the key prey item. Survival rates of gull nests were higher in the middle of the colony than at the colony edge close to a fox den. The colony area lost could be explained solely by the number of eggs removed by foxes but is unlikely, e.g., due to reclutching. We suggest that intraspecific predation contributes additionally to the effects of direct fox predation although to an unknown degree.     

Egg concealment is an antipredatory strategy in a cavity‐nesting bird

Birds have developed different behavioural strategies to reduce the risk of predation during the breeding period. Bird species that nest in the open often cover their eggs to decrease the risk of predators detecting the clutches. However, in cavity nesters, the potential functions of egg covering have not been explored despite some bird species that nest in cavities also covering their eggs as open nesters do. We analysed whether egg covering is an antipredatory behaviour in the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus). We simulated an increase in the perceived risk of predation at experimental nests by adding predator scent inside the nest boxes during the egg‐laying period, whilst adding lemon essence or water to control nest boxes. Birds exposed to predator chemical cues in the nest of experimental pairs more frequently covered their eggs than birds exposed to an odorous control. These results suggest that egg covering may have evolved as an antipredatory behaviour also in cavity nesters to reduce the risk of egg predation and thus increase reproductive success in birds.     

Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth,but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.     

Clutch predation in great tinamous Tinamus major and implications for the evolution of egg color

Egg camouflage has been found to reduce predation in several ground‐nesting species. Therefore, the evolution of eggs that lack camouflage in ground nesting birds is puzzling. Even though clutch predation in the tropics is high, tinamous are the only tropical ground‐nesting birds that do not build a nest and do not lay cryptic eggs. I studied predation of great tinamou clutches in a lowland tropical forest and found that risk of predation was higher during incubation when the eggs are covered by the parent, than during laying when they are exposed, suggesting that predators primarily use cues from the incubating males to locate the clutch and not cues from the eggs. Clutch size had no effect on predation rate, even though larger clutches are more conspicuous to a human observer. Predation by visual cues is likely reduced during incubation by the camouflaged plumage and high nest attendance of males. If most predators use cues from the incubating male and not the eggs to locate clutches, then conspicuous egg color may have evolved in great tinamous as an intra‐specific signal. I evaluate hypotheses that may explain the maintenance of conspicuous egg color in tinamous.     

Immense plasticity of timing of breeding in a sedentary forest passerine,Poecile palustris

Numerous bird species have advanced their breeding seasons in response to climate warming. These changes were mostly brought about by phenotypic plasticity, i.e. flexible reactions of individual birds, rather than by microevolutionary change. Knowing the limits of plasticity is thus of paramount importance in any attempt to predict possible reactions of birds to climate warming. However, the breeding performance of the same individuals in contrasting environmental conditions, necessary to answer this question, is rarely observed. Here, we provide data on the flexibility in timing of egg‐laying of individual marsh tit Poecile palustris females breeding in an extremely late (2013) and early (2014) spring in Bia?owie?a National Park (Poland). In both years the birds stayed in the same places in the primeval old‐growth forest, free of direct human influences (no nest‐boxes, no additional food). The weather variation was within the range of conditions observed during 40 yr in the study area, and no climate warming occurred in the marsh tit's pre‐breeding period. Females (n = 16) shifted the onset of laying by 13–23 (median = 20) days between the seasons. This range of individual flexibility encompasses almost the whole latitudinal range of the breeding dates found across Europe. Such a buffer of plasticity would probably be sufficient for marsh tits to adjust the onset of egg‐laying to the forecasted range of climate change. A combination of temperature and photoperiod appears to be involved in fine tuning of the birds’ breeding times with spring conditions, but how the birds asses and integrate this information remains poorly understood.     

Winter climate affects subsequent breeding success of common eiders

The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate‐induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO‐index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break‐up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break‐up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter‐NAO‐index and timing of ice break‐up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a short‐distance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991–2004 (migration data 1979–2004). We also examined the correlation between the NAO‐index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break‐up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.     

Tracking day and night provides insights into the relative importance of different wader chick predators

Poor reproductive success driven by nest and chick predation severely limits the population recovery of waders breeding on lowland wet grassland. Managing predation requires knowledge of the predators and because these can be grouped into nocturnal or diurnal hunters, detecting the timing of predation can help assess their relative impacts. Wader nest studies investigating the timing of egg predation have identified nocturnal mammals, primarily Red Foxes Vulpes vulpes, as the most important nest predators, but quantifying predator importance for highly mobile wader chicks is more difficult. Manual radiotelemetry can detect whether chicks are alive but cannot detect the time of predation, and predator identity can be determined only in the few cases where remains are recovered. As an alternative we used automatic radio tracking stations (ARTS) to constantly record the signals and predation timing of 179 radiotagged Lapwing Vanellus vanellus chicks, combining this with manual telemetry, inference about predator identity from predated remains and site‐level Fox, mustelid and avian predator activity monitoring. This approach succeeded in detecting the time of predation for 60% of the 155 chicks that were predated. Diurnal chick predation accounted for a larger number of predation events, but nocturnal predation was more intensive in terms of predation likelihood per hour. Mammalian predation during both day and night had a larger impact on chick survival than did avian predation. Raptors were primarily responsible for predation by birds and Foxes for predation by mammals, with Foxes also having a larger influence on daily chick predation rates than other predators. Chick predation increased seasonally, implying that earlier‐hatching breeding attempts are more likely to be successful. Higher Fox, raptor and mustelid activity resulted in higher proportions of chicks being predated by those predators, so quantifying the activity of those three predator groups on a site could be a quicker alternative to studying chicks when investigating which predator species to target with site‐specific predation management.