Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia

Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Adaptive divergence along environmental gradients in a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal

In the face of predicted climate change, a broader understanding of biotic responses to varying environments has become increasingly important within the context of biodiversity conservation. Local adaptation is one potential option, yet remarkably few studies have harnessed genomic tools to evaluate the efficacy of this response within natural populations. Here, we show evidence of selection driving divergence of a climate‐change‐sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps), distributed along elevation gradients at its northern range margin in the Coast Mountains of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We employed amplified‐fragment‐length‐polymorphism‐based genomic scans to conduct genomewide searches for candidate loci among populations inhabiting varying environments from sea level to 1500 m. Using several independent approaches to outlier locus detection, we identified 68 candidate loci putatively under selection (out of a total 1509 screened), 15 of which displayed significant associations with environmental variables including annual precipitation and maximum summer temperature. These candidate loci may represent important targets for predicting pika responses to climate change and informing novel approaches to wildlife conservation in a changing world.     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。     

Accommodating Species Climate-Forced Dispersal and Uncertainties in Spatial Conservation Planning

Spatial conservation prioritization should seek to anticipate climate change impacts on biodiversity and to mitigate these impacts through the development of dynamic conservation plans. Here, we defined spatial priorities for the conservation of amphibians inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot that overcome the likely impacts of climate change on the distribution of this imperiled fauna. First, we built ecological niche models (ENMs) for 431 amphibian species both for current time and for the mid-point of a 30-year period spanning 2071–2099 (i.e. 2080). For modeling species'' niches, we combined six modeling methods and three different climate models. We also quantified and mapped model uncertainties. Our consensus models forecasted range shifts that culminate with high species richness in central and eastern Atlantic Forest, both for current time and for 2080. Most species had a significant range contraction (up to 72%) and 12% of species were projected to be regionally extinct. Most species would need to disperse because suitable climatic sites will change. Therefore, we identified a network of priority sites for conservation that minimizes the distance a given species would need to disperse because of changes in future habitat suitability (i.e. climate-forced dispersal) as well as uncertainties associated to ENMs. This network also maximized complementary species representation across currently established protected areas. Priority sites already include possible dispersal corridors linking current and future suitable habitats for amphibians. Although we used the a top-ranked Biodiversity Hotspot and amphibians as a case study for illustrating our approach, our study may help developing more effective conservation strategies under climate change, especially when applied at different spatial scales, geographic regions, and taxonomic groups.     

Dispersal corridors for plant species in the Poyang Lake Basin of southeast China identified by integration of phylogeographic and geospatial data

Measuring the dispersal of wildlife through landscapes is notoriously difficult. Recently, the categorical least cost path algorithm that integrates population genetic data with species distribution models has been applied to reveal population connectivity. In this study, we use this method to identify the possible dispersal corridors of five plant species (Castanopsis tibetana, Schima superba, Cyclocarya paliurus, Sargentodoxa cuneata, Eomecon chionantha) in the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB, largely coinciding with Jiangxi Province), China, in the late Quaternary. The results showed that the strongest population connectivity for the five species occurred in the Wuyi Mountains and the Yu Mountains of the eastern PLB (East Corridor) during the late Quaternary. In the western PLB, populations of the five species were connected by the Luoxiao Mountains and the Jiuling Mountains (West Corridor) but with a lower degree of connectivity. There were some minor connections between the eastern and the western populations across the Gannan Hills. When the corridors of five species were overlaid, the East Corridor and the West Corridor were mostly shared by multiple species. These results indicate that plant species in the PLB could have responded to the Quaternary climate changes by moving along the East Corridor and the West Corridor. Given that dispersal corridors have seldom been considered in the governmental strategies of biodiversity conservation in the PLB, preserving and restoring natural vegetation along these corridors should be prioritized to mitigate the effects of anthropogenic climate change by facilitating migration of plant species and other biota.     

The role of natural regeneration to ecosystem services provision and habitat availability: a case study in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Natural regeneration provides multiple benefits to nature and human societies, and can play a major role in global and national restoration targets. However, these benefits are context specific and impacted by both biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity across landscapes. Here, we investigate the benefits of natural regeneration for climate change mitigation, sediment retention and biodiversity conservation in a spatially explicit way at very high resolution for a region within the global biodiversity hotspot of the Atlantic Forest. We classified current land‐use cover in the region and simulated a natural regeneration scenario in abandoned pasturelands, areas where potential conflicts with agricultural production would be minimized and where some early stage regeneration is already occurring. We then modeled changes in biophysical functions for climate change mitigation and sediment retention, and performed an economic valuation of both ecosystem services. We also modeled how land‐use changes affect habitat availability for species. We found that natural regeneration can provide significant ecological and social benefits. Economic values of climate change mitigation and sediment retention alone could completely compensate for the opportunity costs of agricultural production over 20 yr. Habitat availability is improved for three species with different dispersal abilities, although by different magnitudes. Improving the understanding of how costs and benefits of natural regeneration are distributed can be useful to design incentive structures that bring farmers’ decision making more in line with societal benefits. This alignment is crucial for natural regeneration to fulfill its potential as a large‐scale solution for pressing local and global environmental challenges.     

中国生物多样性适应气候变化策略研究

全球气候变化不仅给人类社会可持续发展带来严峻挑战,而且严重威胁到生物多样性及生态安全。我国是生物多样性最为丰富的国家之一,气候变化已经在对动物分布、行为和迁移,植物物候、植被和群落结构等方面造成了影响,并增加了珍稀濒危物种的灭绝风险,同时对生态系统的功能方面也造成了明显影响。未来气候变化将成为生物多样性丧失的主要驱动力之一。世界很多国家都在制定生物多样性适应气候变化的策略和采取适应行动,加强生物多样性的保护。本文在分析国外适应策略的基础上,结合中国生物多样性的现状,提出了适应气候变化的策略建议,包括制定生物多样性适应气候变化的国家战略,开展气候变化对生物多样性的影响监测和评估,针对敏感物种的就地保护和迁地保护,针对气候变化将导致退化生态系统开展恢复与重建,重点关注生物多样性适应气候变化优先区的保护,通过科学研究和国际合作,促进生物多样性适应气候变化技术的提高,期望为我国生物多样性保护和应对气候变化提供支持。     

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.     

Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas

Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self‐seeding within higher‐latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low‐latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future.     

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least‐cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early‐winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.     

Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change

Dispersal is fundamental in determining biodiversity responses to rapid climate change, but recently acquired ecological and evolutionary knowledge is seldom accounted for in either predictive methods or conservation planning. We emphasise the accumulating evidence for direct and indirect impacts of climate change on dispersal. Additionally, evolutionary theory predicts increases in dispersal at expanding range margins, and this has been observed in a number of species. This multitude of ecological and evolutionary processes is likely to lead to complex responses of dispersal to climate change. As a result, improvement of models of species’ range changes will require greater realism in the representation of dispersal. Placing dispersal at the heart of our thinking will facilitate development of conservation strategies that are resilient to climate change, including landscape management and assisted colonisation. Synthesis This article seeks synthesis across the fields of dispersal ecology and evolution, species distribution modelling and conservation biology. Increasing effort focuses on understanding how dispersal influences species' responses to climate change. Importantly, though perhaps not broadly widely‐recognised, species' dispersal characteristics are themselves likely to alter during rapid climate change. We compile evidence for direct and indirect influences that climate change may have on dispersal, some ecological and others evolutionary. We emphasise the need for predictive modelling to account for this dispersal realism and highlight the need for conservation to make better use of our existing knowledge related to dispersal.     

The effects of climate change on a mega‐diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador

Ecuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. Climate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. We projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in Ecuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. Our work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change     

A river-based approach in reconstructing connectivity among protected areas: Insights and challenges from the Balkan region

Global efforts to halt biodiversity loss mandate the establishment of protected areas. In the face of habitat loss and climate uncertainty, large-scale networks of protected areas connected by corridors are needed to increase the dispersal and persistence potential of biota. For example, the recent European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 defines clear targets for identifying, establishing and integrating ecological corridors, as part of a Trans-European Nature Network. Here, we examined whether rivers could serve as such corridors, facilitating landscape connectivity (i.e. extent to which landscape facilitates or impedes species movement, exchange of genes, natal dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) among protected areas hosted within different countries in the Balkan Peninsula, southeastern Europe. To quantitatively address this question, we calculated the proportion of the river network enclosed within a protected area per country to detect patterns of protection coverage and explored the degree to which spatial connections between 1878 protected areas are supported by the river network. Acknowledging that dams hinder instream continuity, we further quantified potential loss of connections between protected areas caused by the existence of already implemented or planned dam projects upon critical river habitats of endangered fish species. Our results highlight that Balkan rivers have great potential in providing the spatial connections needed to establish landscape connectivity between most of protected areas in the region. Still, heedless hydropower growth and dissimilarities in river protection between neighboring countries remain key challenges for the evolution of a relative framework. Transnational cooperation and systematic planning of infrastructure development could be the only efficient steps towards supporting the establishment of a river-based network to reconstruct connectivity between protected areas and meet biodiversity goals.     

生物多样性保护适应气候变化的管理策略

应对气候变化和保护生物多样性是2大全球性热点环境问题。气候变化导致物种多样性丧失、生态系统服务降低和区域生态安全屏障功能受损,威胁到中国国土生态安全格局和生态脆弱区域的可持续发展,给生物多样性保护带来新的挑战。做好生物多样性保护适应气候变化的风险管理工作,既是生物多样性应对气候变化风险的必要措施,也是减缓气候变化的重要途径。结合爱知目标10的实现情况,分析了欧盟、澳大利亚、美国等发达国家发布的生物多样性适应气候变化技术政策制定情况、中国生物多样性应对气候变化进展情况,剖析了中国生物多样性保护适应气候变化存在的问题,包括生物多样性应对气候变化的科学认知亟待提高、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设不足、自然保护地之间缺乏适应气候变化的生态廊道网络、生物多样性保护适应气候变化的技术标准缺乏。研究提出了中国生物多样性应对气候变化的适应性管理策略,包括制定《中国生物多样性保护协同应对气候变化的国家方案》、加强生物多样性保护适应气候变化的能力建设、开展自然保护区适应气候变化的风险管理试点、强化生物多样性应对气候变化的科技支撑,以期为推进纳入气候变化风险管理的生物多样性保护工作提供决策依据。     

A climatic stability approach to prioritizing global conservation investments

Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002-2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term.     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Identifying priority areas for reducing species vulnerability to climate change

Aim The dimensions of species vulnerability to climate change are complex, and this impedes efforts to provide clear advice for conservation planning. In this study, we used a formal framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change quantifying exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity and then used this information to target areas for reducing vulnerability at a regional scale. Location The 6500‐km² Mount Lofty Ranges region in South Australia. Methods We quantified the vulnerability of 171 plant species in a fragmented yet biologically important agro‐ecological landscape, typical of many temperate zones globally. We specified exposure, using three climate change scenarios; sensitivity, as the adverse impact of climate change on species’ spatial distribution; and adaptive capacity, as the ability of species to migrate calculated using dispersal kernels. Priority areas for reducing vulnerability were then identified by incorporating these various components into a single priority index. Results Climate change had a variable impact on species distributions. Those species whose range decreased or shifted geographically were attributed higher sensitivity than those species that increased geographic range or remained unchanged. The ability to adapt to range changes in response to shifting climates varies both spatially and between species. Areas of highest priority for reducing vulnerability were found at higher altitudes and lower latitudes with increasing severity of climate change. Main conclusions Our study demonstrates the use of a single spatially explicit index that identifies areas in the landscape for targeting specific conservation and restoration actions to reduce species vulnerability to climate change. Our index can be transferred to other regions around the world in which climate change poses an increasing threat to native species.     

Ancient woodland indicators signal the climate change risk for dispersal-limited species

The climate change risk to biodiversity operates alongside a range of anthropogenic pressures. These include habitat loss and fragmentation, which may prevent species from migrating between isolated habitat patches in order to track their suitable climate space. Predictive modelling has advanced in scope and complexity to integrate: (i) projected shifts in climate suitability, with (ii) spatial patterns of landscape habitat quality and rates of dispersal. This improved ecological realism is suited to data-rich model species, though its broader generalisation comes with accumulated uncertainties, e.g. incomplete knowledge of species response to variable habitat quality, parameterisation of dispersal kernels etc. This study adopts ancient woodland indicator species (lichen epiphytes) as a guild that couples relative simplicity with biological rigour. Subjectively-assigned indicator species were statistically tested against a binary habitat map of woodlands of known continuity (>250 yr), and bioclimatic models were used to demonstrate trends in their increased/decreased environmental suitability under conditions of ‘no dispersal’. Given the expectation of rapid climate change on ecological time-scales, no dispersal for ancient woodland indicators becomes a plausible assumption. The risk to ancient woodland indicators is spatially structured (greater in a relative continental compared to an oceanic climatic zone), though regional differences are weakened by significant variation (within regions) in woodland extent. As a corollary, ancient woodland indicators that are sensitive to projected climate change scenarios may be excellent targets for monitoring climate change impacts for biodiversity at a site-scale, including the outcome of strategic habitat management (climate change adaptation) designed to offset risk for dispersal-limited species.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.