Forest defoliator outbreaks under climate change: effects on the frequency and severity of outbreaks of five pine insect pests

To identify general patterns in the effects of climate change on the outbreak dynamics of forest‐defoliating insect species, we examined a 212‐year record (1800–2011) of outbreaks of five pine‐defoliating species (Bupalus piniarius, Panolis flammea, Lymantria monacha, Dendrolimus pini, and Diprion pini) in Bavaria, Germany for the evidence of climate‐driven changes in the severity, cyclicity, and frequency of outbreaks. We also accounted for historical changes in forestry practices and examined effects of past insecticide use to suppress outbreaks. Analysis of relationships between severity or occurrence of outbreaks and detrended measures of temperature and precipitation revealed a mixture of positive and negative relationships between temperature and outbreak activity. Two moth species (P. flammea and Dendrolimus pini) exhibited lower outbreak activity following years or decades of unusually warm temperatures, whereas a sawfly (Diprion pini), for which voltinism is influenced by temperature, displayed increased outbreak occurrence in years of high summer temperatures. We detected only one apparent effect of precipitation, which showed Dendrolimus pini outbreaks tending to follow drought. Wavelet analysis of outbreak time series suggested climate change may be associated with collapse of L. monacha and Dendrolimus pini outbreak cycles (loss of cyclicity and discontinuation of outbreaks, respectively), but high‐frequency cycles for B. piniarius and P. flammea in the late 1900s. Regional outbreak severity was generally not related to past suppression efforts (area treated with insecticides). Recent shifts in forestry practices affecting tree species composition roughly coincided with high‐frequency outbreak cycles in B. piniarius and P. flammea but are unlikely to explain the detected relationships between climate and outbreak severity or collapses of outbreak cycles. Our results highlight both individualistic responses of different pine‐defoliating species to climate changes and some patterns that are consistent across defoliator species in this and other forest systems, including collapsing of population cycles.     

The influence of herbivory and weather on the vital rates of two closely related cactus species

Herbivory has long been recognized as a significant driver of plant population dynamics, yet its effects along environmental gradients are unclear. Understanding how weather modulates plant–insect interactions can be particularly important for predicting the consequences of exotic insect invasions, and an explicit consideration of weather may help explain why the impact can vary greatly across space and time. We surveyed two native prickly pear cactus species (genus Opuntia) in the Florida panhandle, USA, and their specialist insect herbivores (the invasive South American cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, and three native insect species) for five years across six sites. We used generalized linear mixed models to assess the impact of herbivory and weather on plant relative growth rate (RGR) and sexual reproduction, and we used Fisher's exact test to estimate the impact of herbivory on survival. Weather variables (precipitation and temperature) were consistently significant predictors of vital rate variation for both cactus species, in contrast to the limited and varied impacts of insect herbivory. Weather only significantly influenced the impact of herbivory on Opuntia humifusa fruit production. The relationships of RGR and fruit production with precipitation suggest that precipitation serves as a cue in determining the trade‐off in the allocation of resources to growth or fruit production. The presence of the native bug explained vital rate variation for both cactus species, whereas the invasive moth explained variation only for O. stricta. Despite the inconsistent effect of herbivory across vital rates and cactus species, almost half of O. stricta plants declined in size, and the invasive insect negatively affected RGR and fruit production. Given that fruit production was strongly size‐dependent, this suggests that O. stricta populations at the locations surveyed are transitioning to a size distribution of predominantly smaller sizes and with reduced sexual reproduction potential.     

Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Phenological responses in a sycamore–aphid–parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter‐annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics—particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri‐trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local‐scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid‐March to late‐April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density‐dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter‐annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.     

The feeding behaviour of a sit-and wait-predator,Ranatra dispar (Heteroptera: Nepidae): optimal foraging and feeding dynamics

Summary Nitrogen and phosphorus flow in litterfall and throughfall were studied in two California Quercus species (the evergreen Q. agrifolia and deciduous Q. lobata) before, during, and after an outbreak of the California oak moth, Phryganidia californica. All of the foliage of both oak species was removed by the herbivore during the course of this outbreak. During the outbreak, total N and P flow to the ground more than doubled from Q. agrifolia and increased to a lesser extent from Q. lobata over the previous year. The composition of the litter during the outbreak year shifted so that in Q. agrifolia, almost 70% of the total N and P flow to the ground moved through frass and insect remains, while in Q. lobata, approximately 60% of the N and 40% of the P moved through frass and insect remains. Short-term leaching experiments showed that nitrogen was far more rapidly lost from Phryganidia frass than from leaf litter of either species. These results and the relative frequency of Phryganidia outbreaks suggest that this herbivore has significant effects on the nutrient cycling beneath these trees.     

Photosynthetic responses of Mojave Desert shrubs to free air CO2 enrichment are greatest during wet years

It has been suggested that desert vegetation will show the strongest response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to strong water limitations in these systems that may be ameliorated by both photosynthetic enhancements and reductions in stomatal conductance. Here, we report the long‐term effect of 55 Pa atmospheric CO₂ on photosynthesis and stomatal conductance for three Mojave Desert shrubs of differing leaf phenology (Ambrosia dumosa—drought‐deciduous, Krameria erecta—winter‐deciduous, Larrea tridentata—evergreen). The shrubs were growing in an undisturbed ecosystem fumigated using FACE technology and were measured over a four‐year period that included both above and below‐average precipitation. Daily integrated photosynthesis (A_day) was significantly enhanced by elevated CO₂ for all three species, although Krameria erecta showed the greatest enhancements (63% vs. 32% for the other species) enhancements were constant throughout the entire measurement period. Only one species, Larrea tridentata, decreased stomatal conductance by 25–50% in response to elevated CO₂, and then only at the onset of the summer dry season and following late summer convective precipitation. Similarly, reductions in the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco were limited to Larrea during spring. These results suggest that the elevated CO₂ response of desert vegetation is a function of complex interactions between species functional types and prevailing environmental conditions. Elevated CO₂ did not extend the active growing season into the summer dry season because of overall negligible stomatal conductance responses that did not result in significant water conservation. Overall, we expect the greatest response of desert vegetation during years with above‐average precipitation when the active growing season is not limited to ～ 2 months and, consequently, the effects of increased photosynthesis can accumulate over a biologically significant time period.     

A review of the threats to adult survival for swallows (Family: Hirundinidae)

Capsule: For declining migratory birds, including many aerial insectivores, such as swallows, there is evidence that adult survival is a demographic process with strong effects on population trends.

Aims: The aim was to identify and quantify the effect of threats affecting adult survival and potentially driving population declines for five well-studied swallow species: Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica, Cliff Swallow Petrochelidon pyrrhonota, Tree Swallow Tachycineta bicolor, Sand Martin Riparia riparia, and Purple Martin Progne subis.

Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify the threats to adult survival, quantified the magnitude of the effect and identified whether threats had a direct or indirect effect on survival.

Results: We identified habitat change, weather, competition, incidental loss, contaminants, insect availability, disease, and predation as threats to adult survival in swallows, although for many of these threats there was limited information to quantify their impact. However, weather, particularly cold snaps and precipitation, had negative effects on survival for many populations of four species, either directly or indirectly through effects on insect availability. When there was a relationship, weather was associated with a 13–53% decrease in survival.

Conclusion: Based on the available research, weather conditions throughout the annual cycle is a key threat to adult survival for several swallow species. However, future research on the threats to these species should consider examining the effect of insect availability and the effect of threats during the non-breeding period on survival. Finally, we suggest that new research should be devoted to understanding the importance of adult survival for declining bird populations.     

Forest tree growth response to hydroclimate variability in the southern Appalachians

Climate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate‐driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal regulation and xylem architecture: isohydric, diffuse porous and anisohydric, ring porous. We hypothesized that within the same climatic regime: (i) species‐specific differences in growth will be conditional on topographically mediated soil moisture availability; (ii) in extreme drought years, functional groups will have markedly different growth responses; and (iii) multiple hydroclimate variables will have direct and indirect effects on growth for each functional group. We used standardized tree‐ring chronologies to examine growth of diffuse‐porous (Acer, Liriodendron, and Betula) and ring‐porous (Quercus) species vs. on‐site climatic data from 1935 to 2003. Quercus species growing on upslope sites had higher basal area increment (BAI) than Quercus species growing on mesic, cove sites; whereas, Acer and Liriodendron had lower BAI on upslope compared to cove sites. Diffuse‐porous species were more sensitive to climate than ring porous, especially during extreme drought years. Across functional groups, radial growth was more sensitive to precipitation distribution, such as small storms and dry spell length (DSL), rather than the total amount of precipitation. Based on structural equation modeling, diffuse‐porous species on upslope sites were the most sensitive to multiple hydroclimate variables (r² = 0.46), while ring‐porous species on upslope sites were the least sensitive (r² = 0.32). Spring precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and summer storms had direct effects on summer AET/P, and summer AET/P, growing season small storms and DSL partially explained growth. Decreasing numbers of small storms and extending the days between rainfall events will result in significant growth reduction, even in regions with relatively high total annual rainfall.     

Insight into the photosynthetic apparatus in evergreen and deciduous European oaks during autumn senescence using OJIP fluorescence transient analysis

Climate change is one of the major issues nowadays, and Mediterranean broadleaf species have been suggested to fill possible future gaps created by climate change in Central European forests. To provide a scientific‐based foundation for such practical strategies, it is important to obtain a general idea about differences and similarities in the physiology of Central European and Mediterranean species. In the present study, we evaluated the onset of leaf senescence of a broad spectrum of oak species under the Central European climate in a common garden experiment. Degradation of the photosynthetic apparatus of evergreen (Quercus ilex, Q. suber), semi‐evergreen (Q. × turneri, Q. × hispanica) and deciduous oaks (Q. robur, Q. cerris, Q. frainetto, Q. pubescens) was monitored as chlorophyll content and analysed chlorophyll fluorescence induction transients. In the deciduous species, a significant decline in chlorophyll content was observed during autumn/winter, with Q. pubescens showing the slowest decline. Analysis of fluorescence induction transients revealed a significant decline in quantum efficiency of the primary photochemistry and reaction centre density and later, a decrease in quantum efficiency of end acceptor reduction. Alterations in fluorescence parameters were compared to the decline in chlorophyll content, which occurred much more slowly than expected from the fluorescence data. The evergreen species showed no decline in chlorophyll content, nor different chlorophyll a fluorescence induction behaviour despite temperature falling below 0 °C. The hybrids showed intermediate behaviour between their parental evergreen and deciduous taxa.     

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to ?63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.     

Native brook trout and invasive rainbow trout respond differently to seasonal weather variation: Spawning timing matters

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Invasion windows for a global legume invader are revealed after joint examination of abiotic and biotic filters

• Successful alien plant invasion is influenced by both climate change and plant–plant interactions. We estimate the single and interactive effects of competition and extreme weather events on the performance of the global legume invader Lupinus polyphyllus (Lindl.).
• In three experimental studies we assessed (i) the stress tolerance of seedling and adult L. polyphyllus plants against extreme weather events (drought, fluctuating precipitation, late frost), (ii) the competitive effects of L. polyphyllus on native grassland species and vice versa, and (iii) the interactive effects of extreme weather events and competition on the performance of L. polyphyllus.
• Drought reduced growth and led to early senescence of L. polyphyllus but did not reduce adult survival. Fluctuating precipitation events and late frost reduced the length of inflorescences. Under control conditions, interspecific competition reduced photosynthetic activity and growth of L. polyphyllus. When subjected to competition during drought, L. polyphyllus conserved water while simultaneously maintaining high assimilation rates, demonstrating increased water use efficiency. Meanwhile, native species had reduced performance under drought.
• In summary, the invader gained an advantage under drought conditions through a smaller reduction in performance relative to its native competitors but was competitively inferior under control conditions. This provides evidence for a possible invasion window for this species. While regions of high elevation or latitude with regular severe late frost events might remain inaccessible for L. polyphyllus, further spread across Europe seems probable as the predicted increase in drought events may favour this non‐native legume over native species.

     

哀牢山中山湿性常绿阔叶林木径向生长季节动态及其对气候因子的响应

研究采用树木生长环在哀牢山中山湿性常绿阔叶林持续9年(2009—2017年)监测了2个常绿树种(厚皮香,Ternstroemia gymnanthera;南亚枇杷,Eriobotrya bengalensis)和2个落叶树种(西桦,Betula alnoides;珍珠花,Lyonia ovalifolia)的树干月生长量,采用逻辑斯蒂生长模型(Logistic model)模拟树木径向生长量和物候参数,并分析了年、季尺度上径向生长与主要气候因子的关系。结果表明:1)4个树种年平均生长量为6.3 mm,落叶树种年平均生长量(10.6 mm/a)显著高于常绿树种(3.0 mm/a);2)雨季(5—10月)是哀牢山中山湿性常绿阔叶林树木生长的主要时期,4个树种雨季平均生长量为5.9 mm,占全年总生长量的93%,其中落叶树种雨季生长量占全年的96%,而常绿树种雨季生长量占全年的86%;3)常绿树种生长季长度为169天,长于落叶树种(137天),而落叶树种最大生长速率(0.14 mm/d)显著高于常绿树种(0.03 mm/d),最大径向生长速率能很好地预测树种年生长量;4)低温、雾日和光合有效辐射是影响哀牢山亚热带常绿阔叶林4个研究树种径向生长的重要环境因子,其中温度对常绿树种径向生长具有显著影响,而雨日、雾日与空气湿度等水分因子对落叶树种径向生长更为重要。常绿树种年生长量对旱季气候因子的响应相比落叶树种更为敏感,树木旱季生长量除了受低温限制外,也受到水分供给的影响。气候变化可能改变不同物候类型树种在哀牢山中山湿性常绿阔叶林中的生长状态与分布格局。     

Species‐specific adaptations explain resilience of herbaceous understorey to increased precipitation variability in a Mediterranean oak woodland

To date, the implications of the predicted greater intra‐annual variability and extremes in precipitation on ecosystem functioning have received little attention. This study presents results on leaf‐level physiological responses of five species covering the functional groups grasses, forbs, and legumes in the understorey of a Mediterranean oak woodland, with increasing precipitation variability, without altering total annual precipitation inputs. Although extending the dry period between precipitation events from 3 to 6 weeks led to increased soil moisture deficit, overall treatment effects on photosynthetic performance were not observed in the studied species. This resilience to prolonged water stress was explained by different physiological and morphological strategies to withstand periods below the wilting point, that is, isohydric behavior in Agrostis, Rumex, and Tuberaria, leaf succulence in Rumex, and taproots in Tolpis. In addition, quick recovery upon irrigation events and species‐specific adaptations of water‐use efficiency with longer dry periods and larger precipitation events contributed to the observed resilience in productivity of the annual plant community. Although none of the species exhibited a change in cover with increasing precipitation variability, leaf physiology of the legume Ornithopus exhibited signs of sensitivity to moisture deficit, which may have implications for the agricultural practice of seeding legume‐rich mixtures in Mediterranean grassland‐type systems. This highlights the need for long‐term precipitation manipulation experiments to capture possible directional changes in species composition and seed bank development, which can subsequently affect ecosystem state and functioning.     

Geographical variation in morphology and its environmental correlates in a widespread North American lizard,Anolis carolinensis (Squamata: Dactyloidae)

The green anole, Anolis carolinensis, has long been an important model organism for studies of physiology and behaviour, and recently became the first reptile to have its genome sequenced. With a large and environmentally heterogeneous distribution, especially in relation to well‐studied Antillean relatives, A. carolinensis is also emerging as an important organism for novel studies of geographical differentiation and adaptation. In the present study, we quantify the degree of morphological variation in this species and test for environmental correlates of this variation. We also examine adherence to Bergmann's and Allen's rule, two eco‐geographical principles that have been well studied over large species ranges. We sampled from 14 populations across the distribution of the species in North America and measured 28 distinct morphological traits. We also collected a suite of environmental variables for each site, including those related to temperature, precipitation, and vegetation. Ultimately, we found a large degree of geographical variation in morphology, with head traits contributing the most to differences among populations. Morphological variation was correlated with variation in temperature, precipitation, and latitude across sites. We found no support for reverse Bergmann's rule typical of squamates, although we did find a trend of reverse Allen's rule. Ultimately, the present study provides a novel look at A. carolinensis and establishes it as a strong candidate for further studies of variation and adaptation over a large range.     

Investigating the abundance and flight period of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) over elevational gradients in Sitka spruce forests

1. A warming climate, as predicted under current climate change projections, is likely to influence the population dynamics of many forest insect species. Numerous bark beetle species in both Europe and North America have already responded to a warming climate by significantly expanding their geographical ranges.
2. The aim of the current study was to investigate how populations of bark beetles within stands of Sitka spruce, a widely planted non-native commercial plantation tree species in the U.K., were likely to respond to a warming climate. Experimental plots were established in stands of Sitka spruce over elevational gradients in two commercial forest plantations, and the abundance and emergence times of key bark beetle species were assessed over a 3-year period using flight interception traps. The air temperature difference between the lowest and highest experimental plot in each forest was consistently >1°C throughout the 3-year period.
3. In general, the abundance of the most dominant bark beetle species (e.g. Trypodendron, Dryocoetes, Hylastes spp.) was higher, and emergence times tended to be earlier in the year at the lower elevation plots, where temperatures were higher, although not all bark beetle species responded in the same manner.
4. The results of the study indicated that, under the projected future climate warming scenarios, monoculture Sitka spruce stands at low elevations may potentially be more vulnerable to significant outbreak events from existing or invasive bark beetle species. Hence, consideration of establishing more resilient forests of Sitka spruce by diversifying the species composition and structure of Sitka spruce stands is discussed.

     

Aerial colonization of high Arctic islands by invertebrates: the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae) as a potential indicator species

Abstract. The restricted animal communities of the high Arctic islands are due, in part, to extreme geographical isolation. Migration via wind currents is one mechanism by which invasion of new species may occur. Here, we describe immigration of the non‐resident migratory moth, Plutella xylostella, into Svalbard during 2000. This was associated with a warm south‐easterly air mass that crossed from W. Russia: moths appear to have covered the 800 km to Svalbard in under 48 h, flying at an altitude between 500 and 1500 m. These events thus provide a case study for wind‐dispersed movements of invertebrates to high Arctic regions. Climate change scenarios predict increased frequency of such air masses and also of the warm dry weather associated with increased aerial insect transport. The general factors determining successful colonization of the high Arctic by wind‐dispersed animals are discussed, using P. xylostella as a model species whose important life history and physiological attributes are well known.     

European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges

Aim

The aim was to assess the sensitivity of butterfly population dynamics to variation in weather conditions across their geographical ranges, relative to sensitivity to density dependence, and determine whether sensitivity is greater towards latitudinal range margins.

Location

Europe.

Time period

1980–2014.

Major taxa studied

Butterflies.

Methods

We use long‐term (35 years) butterfly monitoring data from > 900 sites, ranging from Finland to Spain, grouping sites into 2° latitudinal bands. For 12 univoltine butterfly species with sufficient data from at least four bands, we construct population growth rate models that include density dependence, temperature and precipitation during distinct life‐cycle periods, defined to accommodate regional variation in phenology. We use partial R² values as indicators of butterfly population dynamics' sensitivity to weather and density dependence, and assess how these vary with latitudinal position within a species' distribution.

Results

Population growth rates appear uniformly sensitive to density dependence across species' geographical distributions, and sensitivity to density dependence is typically greater than sensitivity to weather. Sensitivity to weather is greatest towards range edges, with symmetry in northern and southern parts of the range. This pattern is not driven by variation in the magnitude of weather variability across the range, topographic heterogeneity, latitudinal range extent or phylogeny. Significant weather variables in population growth rate models appear evenly distributed across the life cycle and across temperature and precipitation, with substantial intraspecific variation across the geographical ranges in the associations between population dynamics and specific weather variables.

Main conclusions

Range‐edge populations appear more sensitive to changes in weather than those nearer the centre of species' distributions, but density dependence does not exhibit this pattern. Precipitation is as important as temperature in driving butterfly population dynamics. Intraspecific variation in the form and strength of sensitivity to weather suggests that there may be important geographical variation in populations' responses to climate change.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.