Gut microbial diversity across a contact zone for California voles: Implications for lineage divergence of hosts and mitonuclear mismatch in the assembly of the mammalian gut microbiome

Gut microbial diversity is thought to reflect the co‐evolution of microbes and their hosts as well as current host‐specific attributes such as genetic background and environmental setting. To explore interactions among these parameters, we characterized variation in gut microbiome composition of California voles (Microtus californicus) across a contact zone between two recently diverged lineages of this species. Because this contact zone contains individuals with mismatched mitochondrial‐nuclear genomes (cybrids), it provides an important opportunity to explore how different components of the genotype contribute to gut microbial diversity. Analyses of bacterial 16S rRNA sequences and joint species distribution modelling revealed that host genotypes and genetic differentiation among host populations together explained more than 50% of microbial community variation across our sampling transect. The ranked importance (most to least) of factors contributing to gut microbial diversity in our study populations were: genome‐wide population differentiation, local environmental conditions, and host genotypes. However, differences in microbial communities among vole populations (β‐diversity) did not follow patterns of lineage divergence (i.e., phylosymbiosis). Instead, among‐population variation was best explained by the spatial distribution of hosts, as expected if the environment is a primary source of gut microbial diversity (i.e., dispersal limitation hypothesis). Across the contact zone, several bacterial taxa differed in relative abundance between the two parental lineages as well as among individuals with mismatched mitochondrial and nuclear genomes. Thus, genetic divergence among host lineages and mitonuclear genomic mismatches may also contribute to microbial diversity by altering interactions between host genomes and gut microbiota (i.e., hologenome speciation hypothesis).     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.     

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host-parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range.     

Fluctuating Environments Maintain Genetic Diversity through Neutral Fitness Effects and Balancing Selection

Genetic variation is the raw material upon which selection acts. The majority of environmental conditions change over time and therefore may result in variable selective effects. How temporally fluctuating environments impact the distribution of fitness effects and in turn population diversity is an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Here, we employed continuous culturing using chemostats to establish environments that switch periodically between different nutrient limitations and compared the dynamics of selection to static conditions. We used the pooled Saccharomyces cerevisiae haploid gene deletion collection as a synthetic model for populations comprising thousands of unique genotypes. Using barcode sequencing, we find that static environments are uniquely characterized by a small number of high-fitness genotypes that rapidly dominate the population leading to dramatic decreases in genetic diversity. By contrast, fluctuating environments are enriched in genotypes with neutral fitness effects and an absence of extreme fitness genotypes contributing to the maintenance of genetic diversity. We also identified a unique class of genotypes whose frequencies oscillate sinusoidally with a period matching the environmental fluctuation. Oscillatory behavior corresponds to large differences in short-term fitness that are not observed across long timescales pointing to the importance of balancing selection in maintaining genetic diversity in fluctuating environments. Our results are consistent with a high degree of environmental specificity in the distribution of fitness effects and the combined effects of reduced and balancing selection in maintaining genetic diversity in the presence of variable selection.     

GENOTYPE‐BY‐TEMPERATURE INTERACTIONS MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN CLONAL DIVERSITY IN ASTERIONELLA FORMOSA (BACILLARIOPHYCEAE)

Marine and freshwater phytoplankton populations often show large clonal diversity, which is in disagreement with clonal selection of the most vigorous genotype(s). Temporal fluctuation in selection pressures in variable environments is a leading explanation for maintenance of such genetic diversity. To test the influence of temperature as a selection force in continually (seasonally) changing aquatic systems we carried out reaction norms experiments on co‐occurring clonal genotypes of a ubiquitous diatom species, Asterionella formosa Hassall, across an environmentally relevant range of temperatures. We report within population genetic diversity and extensive diversity in genotype‐specific reaction norms in growth rates and cell size traits. Our results showed genotype by environment interactions, indicating that no genotype could outgrow all others across all temperature environments. Subsequently, we constructed a model to simulate the relative proportion of each genotype in a hypothetical population based on genotype and temperature‐specific population growth rates. This model was run with different seasonal temperature patterns. Our modeling exercise showed a succession of two to several genotypes becoming numerically dominant depending on the underlying temperature pattern. The results suggest that (temperature) context dependent fitness may contribute to the maintenance of genetic diversity in isolated populations of clonally reproducing microorganisms in temporally variable environments.     

Genetic composition,genetic diversity,and small-scale environmental variation matter for the experimental reintroduction of a rare plant

Aims Reintroduction has become an important tool for the management of endangered plant species. We tested the little-explored effects of small-scale environmental variation, genotypic composition (i.e. identity of genotypes) and genotypic diversity on the population survival of the regionally rare clonal plant Ranunculus reptans. For this species of periodically inundated lakeshores, genetic differentiation had been reported between populations and between short-flooded and long-flooded microsites within populations.Methods We established 306 experimental test populations at a previously unoccupied lakeshore, comprising either monocultures of 32 genotypes, mixtures of genotypes within populations or mixtures of genotypes between populations. In 2000, three years after planting out at the experimental site, a long-lasting flood caused the death of half of the experimental populations. In 2003, an extreme drought resulted in the lowest summer water levels ever measured.Important findings Despite these climatic extremes, 27% of the established populations survived in December 2003. The success of experimental populations largely differed between microsites. Moreover, the success of genotype monocultures depended on genotype and source population. Genetic differentiation between microsites played a minor role for the success of reintroduction. After the flood, populations planted with genotypes from different source populations increased in abundance, whereas populations with genotypes from single source populations and genotype monocultures decreased. In 2014, several small patches of Ranunculus clones were still present, but plants were strongly intermingled, which precluded their assignment to the original treatments. We conclude that sources for reintroductions need to be selected carefully. Moreover, mixtures of plants from different populations appear to be the best choice for successful reintroduction, at least in unpredictably varying environments.     

Inter‐individual variation promotes ecological success of populations and species: evidence from experimental and comparative studies

Biological diversity is threatened by exploitation, fragmentation of natural habitats, pollution, climate change, and anthropogenic spread of species. The question of how among‐individual variation influences the performance of populations and species is a poorly explored but currently growing field of research. Here, we review 31 experimental and 14 comparative studies and first investigate whether there is empirical support for the propositions that higher levels of among‐individual phenotypic and genetic variation promote the ecological and evolutionary success of populations and species in the face of environmental change. Next, we examine whether and how the effect of diversity depends on environmental conditions. Finally, we explore whether the relationship linking population fitness to diversity is typically linear, asymptotic, or whether the benefits peak at intermediate diversity. The reviewed studies provide strong, almost invariable, evidence that more variable populations are less vulnerable to environmental changes, show decreased fluctuations in population size, have superior establishment success, larger distribution ranges, and are less extinction prone, compared with less variable populations or species. Given the overwhelming evidence that variation promotes population performance, it is important to identify conditions when increased variation does not have the theoretically expected effect, a question of considerable importance in biodiversity management, where there are many other practical constraints. We find that experimental outcomes generally support the notion that genetic and phenotypic variation is of greater importance under more stressful than under benign conditions. Finally, population performance increased linearly with increasing diversity in the majority (10 of 12) of manipulation studies that included four or more diversity levels; only two experiments detected curvilinear relationships.     

The effect of selection history on extinction risk during severe environmental change

Environments rarely remain the same over time, and populations are therefore frequently at risk of going extinct when changes are significant enough to reduce fitness. Although many studies have investigated what attributes of the new environments and of the populations experiencing these changes will affect their probability of going extinct, limited work has been directed towards determining the role of population history on the probability of going extinct during severe environmental change. Here, we compare the extinction risk of populations with a history of selection in a benign environment, to populations with a history of selection in one or two stressful environments. We exposed spores and lines of the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii from these three different histories to a range of severe environmental changes. We found that the extinction risk was higher for populations with a history of selection in stressful environments compared to populations with a history of selection in a benign environment. This effect was not due to differences in initial population sizes. Finally, the rates of extinction were highly repeatable within histories, indicating strong historical contingency of extinction risk. Hence, information on the selection history of a population can be used to predict their probability of going extinct during environmental change.     

Genetic resilience of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Daphnia</Emphasis> populations following experimental removal of introduced fish

Dramatic changes in environmental conditions or community composition may impose severe selective pressures on resident populations. These changes in the selective regime can lead to demographic bottlenecks or local extinction. The consequence of demographic contraction is often a reduction of standing genetic variation. Since the level of adaptive genetic variation in populations plays an important role in persistence and adaptive response, understanding genetic resilience and the time course for re-establishment of genetic diversity following demographic perturbations is a critical component of assessing the consequences of changing environments. The introduction of nonnative fish into historically fishless lakes is a particularly dramatic environmental change frequently contributing to demographic bottlenecks and local extinction of native populations. We examine the quantitative- and molecular-genetic recovery of two alpine populations of the zooplankton Daphnia melanica from the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. These populations were extirpated by introduced salmonids and subsequently re-established following the experimental removal of nonnative fish. We obtained data for nuclear and mitochondrial markers and conducted a common-garden experiment to assess the levels of molecular- and quantitative-genetic variation following experimental fish removal. Reestablished D. melanica populations attained levels of nuclear genetic diversity only slightly lower than surrounding fishless populations in the first year following fish removal and substantial mitochondrial and quantitative-genetic diversity within 8 years. This high level of genetic resilience was likely facilitated by multiple sources of genetic variation, including immigration from neighboring populations and hatching from a local reservoir of diapausing eggs. Our results highlight the genetic resilience of taxa with reservoirs of genetic variation in seed or egg banks.     

Environmental gradients shape the genetic structure of two medicinal Salvia species in Jordan

• Environmental gradients, and particularly climatic variables, exert a strong influence on plant distribution and, potentially, population genetic diversity and differentiation. Differences in water availability can cause among‐population variation in ecological processes and can thus interrupt populations’ connectivity and isolate them environmentally. The present study examines the effect of environmental heterogeneity on plant populations due to environmental isolation unrelated to geographic distance.
• Using AFLP markers, we analyzed genetic diversity and differentiation among 12 Salvia spinosa populations and 13 Salvia syriaca populations from three phytogeographical regions (Mediterranean, Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian) representing the extent of the species’ geographic range in Jordan. Differences in geographic location and climate were considered in the analyses.
• For both species, flowering phenology varied among populations and regions. Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations had higher genetic diversity than Mediterranean populations, and genetic diversity increased significantly with increasing temperature. Genetic diversity in Salvia syriaca was affected by population size, while genetic diversity responded to drought in S. spinosa. For both species, high levels of genetic differentiation were found as well as two well‐supported phytogeographical groups of populations, with Mediterranean populations clustering in one group and the Irano‐Turanian and Saharo‐Arabian populations in another. Genetic distance was significantly correlated to environmental distance, but not to geographic distance.
• Our data indicate that populations from moist vs. arid environments are environmentally isolated, where environmental gradients affect their flowering phenology, limit gene flow and shape their genetic structure. We conclude that environmental heterogeneity may act as driver for the observed variation in genetic diversity.

     

Contrasting levels of evolutionary potential in populations of the invasive plant Polygonum cespitosum

The amount of quantitative genetic variation within an invasive species influences its ability to adapt to conditions in the new range and its long-term persistence. Consequently, this aspect of genetic diversity (or evolutionary potential) can be a key factor in the success of species invasions. Previous studies have compared the evolutionary potential of populations in introduced versus native ranges of invasive species, but to date no study has examined differences among introduced-range populations of such species in levels of quantitative genetic variation expressed in ecologically relevant environments. We assessed quantitative variation of fitness, life-history, and functional traits in six geographically separate introduced-range populations of the invasive annual Polygonum cespitosum, by comparing norms of reaction for a large sample of genotypes (16–19 per population) expressed in response to two glasshouse environments simulating contrasting habitats in this new range. Patterns of reaction norm diversity varied considerably among the 6 populations studied. Two populations showed very little quantitative genetic variation in both environments. In contrast, two other populations contained significant genetic variation for fitness and life-history traits in the form of genotypes with low performance in both habitats. Finally, two populations showed significant norm of reaction diversity in the form of cross-over interaction: genotypes that performed relatively well in one environment did poorly in the other. Differences among populations in potential selective response are likely to affect the dynamics and future spread of P. cespitosum, since specific populations will likely contribute differently to the invasion process. More generally, our results suggest that the evolutionary component of long-term invasion success may depend on population rather than on species-level processes.     

Parasite‐mediated selection in a natural metapopulation of Daphnia magna

Parasite‐mediated selection varying across time and space in metapopulations is expected to result in host local adaptation and the maintenance of genetic diversity in disease‐related traits. However, nonadaptive processes like migration and extinction‐(re)colonization dynamics might interfere with adaptive evolution. Understanding how adaptive and nonadaptive processes interact to shape genetic variability in life‐history and disease‐related traits can provide important insights into their evolution in subdivided populations. Here we investigate signatures of spatially fluctuating, parasite‐mediated selection in a natural metapopulation of Daphnia magna. Host genotypes from infected and uninfected populations were genotyped at microsatellite markers, and phenotyped for life‐history and disease traits in common garden experiments. Combining phenotypic and genotypic data a Q_ST–F_ST‐like analysis was conducted to test for signatures of parasite mediated selection. We observed high variation within and among populations for phenotypic traits, but neither an indication of host local adaptation nor a cost of resistance. Infected populations have a higher gene diversity (Hs) than uninfected populations and Hs is strongly positively correlated with fitness. These results suggest a strong parasite effect on reducing population level inbreeding. We discuss how stochastic processes related to frequent extinction‐(re)colonization dynamics as well as host and parasite migration impede the evolution of resistance in the infected populations. We suggest that the genetic and phenotypic patterns of variation are a product of dynamic changes in the host gene pool caused by the interaction of colonization bottlenecks, inbreeding, immigration, hybrid vigor, rare host genotype advantage and parasitism. Our study highlights the effect of the parasite in ameliorating the negative fitness consequences caused by the high drift load in this metapopulation.     

Diversity of parental environments increases phenotypic variation in Arabidopsis populations more than genetic diversity but similarly affects productivity

Background and AimsThe observed positive diversity effect on ecosystem functioning has rarely been assessed in terms of intraspecific trait variability within populations. Intraspecific phenotypic variability could stem both from underlying genetic diversity and from plasticity in response to environmental cues. The latter might derive from modifications to a plant’s epigenome and potentially last multiple generations in response to previous environmental conditions. We experimentally disentangled the role of genetic diversity and diversity of parental environments on population productivity, resistance against environmental fluctuations and intraspecific phenotypic variation.MethodsA glasshouse experiment was conducted in which different types of Arabidopsis thaliana populations were established: one population type with differing levels of genetic diversity and another type, genetically identical, but with varying diversity levels of the parental environments (parents grown in the same or different environments). The latter population type was further combined, or not, with experimental demethylation to reduce the potential epigenetic diversity produced by the diversity of parental environments. Furthermore, all populations were each grown under different environmental conditions (control, fertilization and waterlogging). Mortality, productivity and trait variability were measured in each population.Key ResultsParental environments triggered phenotypic modifications in the offspring, which translated into more functionally diverse populations when offspring from parents grown under different conditions were brought together in mixtures. In general, neither the increase in genetic diversity nor the increase in diversity of parental environments had a remarkable effect on productivity or resistance to environmental fluctuations. However, when the epigenetic variation was reduced via demethylation, mixtures were less productive than monocultures (i.e. negative net diversity effect), caused by the reduction of phenotypic differences between different parental origins.ConclusionsA diversity of environmental parental origins within a population could ameliorate the negative effect of competition between coexisting individuals by increasing intraspecific phenotypic variation. A diversity of parental environments could thus have comparable effects to genetic diversity. Disentangling the effect of genetic diversity and that of parental environments appears to be an important step in understanding the effect of intraspecific trait variability on coexistence and ecosystem functioning.     

Costs and benefits of admixture between foreign genotypes and local populations in the field

Admixture is the hybridization between populations within one species. It can increase plant fitness and population viability by alleviating inbreeding depression and increasing genetic diversity. However, populations are often adapted to their local environments and admixture with distant populations could break down local adaptation by diluting the locally adapted genomes. Thus, admixed genotypes might be selected against and be outcompeted by locally adapted genotypes in the local environments. To investigate the costs and benefits of admixture, we compared the performance of admixed and within‐population F1 and F2 generations of the European plant Lythrum salicaria in a reciprocal transplant experiment at three European field sites over a 2‐year period. Despite strong differences between site and plant populations for most of the measured traits, including herbivory, we found limited evidence for local adaptation. The effects of admixture depended on experimental site and plant population, and were positive for some traits. Plant growth and fruit production of some populations increased in admixed offspring and this was strongest with larger parental distances. These effects were only detected in two of our three sites. Our results show that, in the absence of local adaptation, admixture may boost plant performance, and that this is particularly apparent in stressful environments. We suggest that admixture between foreign and local genotypes can potentially be considered in nature conservation to restore populations and/or increase population viability, especially in small inbred or maladapted populations.     

Field tests of density-and frequency-dependent selection in Erigeron annuus (Compositae)

Selection may maintain genetic diversity in natural populations if the physical or biotic environment is variable over space and-or time. Because density and genotype frequencies can be heterogeneous, and because genotypes may differ in competitive ability, both density-and frequency-dependent selection have been considered to be potentially important evolutionary processes. To address the possibility that intraspecific interactions among plants are a source of fitness variation in Erigeron annuus, we conducted field experiments over 2 yr that were designed to examine the potential of population density, genotype frequency, and their interaction to act as selective agents. In both experiments, apomictic genotypes of Erigeron were paired. Seedlings were planted into plots that differed in density and the identity of minority and majority genotype. There was evidence for a differential effect of density among genotypes for only one year's experiment, suggesting that density-dependent selection is either weak or temporally variable. Genotype frequency had no effect on fitness in either year, and thus there was no evidence for frequency-dependent selection. In addition, the lack of a frequency ;ts density interaction demonstrates that resource partitioning, one mechanism for frequency dependence, is not strong among Erigeron genotypes. If frequency-dependent selection does occur in this species, it is either too weak to detect even in large field experiments, or occurs only in the presence of a selective agent (e.g., pathogens) that was lacking in our experiments.     

Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments

The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage‐structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.     

Increased Extinction Potential of Insular Fish Populations with Reduced Life History Variation and Low Genetic Diversity

Theoretical work has shown that reduced phenotypic heterogeneity leads to population instability and can increase extinction potential, yet few examples exist of natural populations that illustrate how varying levels expressed diversity may influence population persistence, particularly during periods of stochastic environmental fluctuation. In this study, we assess levels of expressed variation and genetic diversity among demographically independent populations of tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), show that reductions in both factors typically coincide, and describe how low levels of diversity contribute to the extinction risk of these isolated populations. We illustrate that, for this annual species, continuous reproduction is a safeguard against reproductive failure by any one population segment, as natural, stochastically driven salinity increases frequently result in high mortality among juvenile individuals. Several study populations deviated from the natural pattern of year-round reproduction typical for the species, rendering those with severely truncated reproductive periods vulnerable to extinction in the event of environmental fluctuation. In contrast, demographically diverse populations are more likely to persist through such periods through the continuous presence of adults with broader physiological tolerance to abrupt salinity changes. Notably, we found a significant correlation between genetic diversity and demographic variation in the study populations, which could be the result of population stressors that restrict both of these diversity measures simultaneously, or suggestive of a causative relationship between these population characteristics. These findings demonstrate the importance of biocomplexity at the population level, and assert that the maintenance of diversity contributes to population resilience and conservation of this endangered species.     

Assessing seasonal demographic covariation to understand environmental‐change impacts on a hibernating mammal

Natural populations are exposed to seasonal variation in environmental factors that simultaneously affect several demographic rates (survival, development and reproduction). The resulting covariation in these rates determines population dynamics, but accounting for its numerous biotic and abiotic drivers is a significant challenge. Here, we use a factor‐analytic approach to capture partially unobserved drivers of seasonal population dynamics. We use 40 years of individual‐based demography from yellow‐bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) to fit and project population models that account for seasonal demographic covariation using a latent variable. We show that this latent variable, by producing positive covariation among winter demographic rates, depicts a measure of environmental quality. Simultaneously, negative responses of winter survival and reproductive‐status change to declining environmental quality result in a higher risk of population quasi‐extinction, regardless of summer demography where recruitment takes place. We demonstrate how complex environmental processes can be summarized to understand population persistence in seasonal environments.     

Variation in circadian rhythms is maintained among and within populations in Boechera stricta

Circadian clocks have evolved independently in all three domains of life, and fitness benefits of a functional clock have been demonstrated in experimental genotypes in controlled conditions. Still, little is known about genetic variation in the clock and its fitness consequences in natural populations from heterogeneous environments. Using Wyoming populations of the Arabidopsis relative Boechera stricta as our study system, we demonstrate that genetic variation in the clock can occur at multiple levels: means of circadian period among populations sampled at different elevations differed by less than 1 h, but means among families sampled within populations varied by as much as 3.5 h. Growth traits also varied among and within populations. Within the population with the most circadian variation, we observed evidence for a positive correlation between period and growth and a negative correlation between period and root‐to‐shoot ratio. We then tested whether performance tradeoffs existed among families of this population across simulated seasonal settings. Growth rankings of families were similar across seasonal environments, but for root‐to‐shoot ratio, genotype × environment interactions contributed significantly to total variation. Therefore, further experiments are needed to identify evolutionary mechanisms that preserve substantial quantitative genetic diversity in the clock in this and other species.     

Predicting patterns of long‐term adaptation and extinction with population genetics

Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short‐term transition from imminent doom to evolutionary rescue. But extinction can result from failure to adapt not only to catastrophes, but also to a backlog of environmental challenges. We model long‐term adaptation to long series of small challenges, where fitter populations reach higher population sizes. The population's long‐term fitness dynamic is well approximated by a simple stochastic Markov chain model. Long‐term persistence occurs when the rate of adaptation exceeds the rate of environmental deterioration for some genotypes. Long‐term persistence times are consistent with typical fossil species persistence times of several million years. Immediately preceding extinction, fitness declines rapidly, appearing as though a catastrophe disrupted a stably established population, even though gradual evolutionary processes are responsible. New populations go through an establishment phase where, despite being demographically viable, their extinction risk is elevated. Should the population survive long enough, extinction risk later becomes constant over time.