Water-energy relationships shape the phylogenetic diversity of terricolous lichen communities in Mediterranean mountains: Implications for conservation in a climate change scenario

Lichens are symbiotic organisms sensitive to climate change and susceptible to a severe decline in diversity, especially in high elevation environments that are already threatened. In this study, we focused on water-energy relationships derived from climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity indices of terricolous lichen communities occurring on a representative Mediterranean mountain. We hypothesized that the variation of precipitation and temperature and their interaction along the altitudinal gradient will shape the phylogenetic diversity and structure of lichen communities. Our results reveal that dry and arid conditions lead to a strong loss in phylogenetic diversity with consequent impoverishment of high elevation lichen communities under a climate change scenario. The interaction between variables, reflecting water-energy relationships with phylogenetic and community diversity patterns, suggests that in a future climate change scenario, the novel climatic conditions may reduce the capability of the species to survive harsher conditions, and Mediterranean mountains may face a severe loss of genetic diversity in a climate change scenario.     

Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatus

1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.     

Understanding the role of climatic and environmental variables in gonadal maturation and spawning periodicity of spotted snakehead, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Channa punctata</Emphasis> (Bloch, 1793) in a tropical floodplain wetland,India

Temperature and seasonal rainfall along with other environmental variables are important in regulating the reproductive cycles in teleost fishes. Certain environmental variables may act as cues for reproduction and changes in these may affect seasonality and success of reproduction, as fishes are known to integrate their physiological functions with environmental cycles. Wetlands are sensitive to climate change due to their shallow and confined nature. Since wetlands are important spawning and nursery grounds for many fishes, changes in the environmental variables may have direct consequences for the spawning and survival of fish. In the present study, we have assessed climatic and water chemistry variables capable of influencing seasonality in environmental variables as well as gonadal maturation of spotted snakehead Channa punctata, to predict threshold values of Gonado Somatic Index in females and a favourable range of identified climatic and water chemistry variables for breeding success. Among the climatic and water chemistry variables studied, seasonal variation in rainfall was found to have the most profound effect on gonadal maturation and breeding in C. punctata, followed by water temperature. The favourable range of rainfall obtained varied between 800 mm to 1400 mm, corresponding to the water temperature range between 29 °C and 31 °C. An overall significant warming trend with a reduction in total rainfall has been observed with changes in seasonal trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The rainfall being the major climatic factors influencing water chemistry in the wetlands during the spawning season, changes in rainfall pattern may influence breeding periodicity of C. punctata in wetlands in climate change scenario.     

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling

Background and Aims A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia.Methods Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM).Key Results A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction.Conclusions Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change.     

Decreasing Net Primary Production in forest and shrub vegetation across southwest Australia

Monitoring changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle and vegetation health can only be undertaken over large areas and on a regular basis using ecological indicators derived from satellite-based sensors. Climate conditions in Mediterranean ecosystems have undergone, and are projected to undergo, significant change in the future with marked impacts on forest and shrubland vegetation. In the southwest of Australia (SWAU), endemic tree species have experienced significant declines in health and mortality since the early 1990s primarily due to these climatic changes. In this paper we examine trends in Net Primary Production (NPP) from 2000 to 2011 as an indicator of productivity and health condition of the woody vegetation across the SWAU region. To do so, we examine NPP estimates derived from satellite imagery and climate data to answer the questions: (1) what is the extent and rate of change in NPP for the SWAU region over the study period, and (2) how important is fire as a contributing factor in the observed trends? Our results suggest that, similar to the global trend in Mediterranean ecosystems, between 2000 and 2011, overall NPP declined across the study region, with the majority of declines occurring in the ecological transition zone between trees and shrubs. Twenty-six percent of the 37,042 square kilometre of woody vegetation that showed a declining NPP trend, was affected by fire. The overall rate of NPP decline for the region was estimated to be −0.38 megaton C per year since 2000, indicating a reduction in the capacity of the region to act as a carbon sink. Under climate change projections, the observed decline trends are likely to continue and our results suggest that the carbon storage potential in this region is gradually decreasing following an ecological shift from tall tree-dominated to lower shrub-dominated vegetation.     

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional,demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species‐specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade‐offs in functional traits, and local‐scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade‐off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.     

Determinants of species richness in generalist and specialist Mediterranean butterflies: the negative synergistic forces of climate and habitat change

Although it is well established that butterfly richness is affected by climate and human factors (e.g. habitat disturbance and degradation) at different spatial scales, the drivers behind these changes vary greatly according to the geographical region and the ecology of the species concerned. It is essential that this variation be understood if trends in diversity are to be predicted with any degree of confidence under a scenario of global change. Here we examine patterns of butterfly species richness among groups differing in degree of habitat specialization, diet breadth and mobility in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, a European hotspot for this taxon. We analyze a large number of butterfly communities and take into consideration the main potential drivers, that include climatic, geographic and resource variables, landscape structure and human environmental impact at different spatial scales. Our study shows that both climatic and anthropogenic factors play an important role in determining butterfly species richness in the north‐west Mediterranean Basin, but that their relative impact differs between specialist and generalist groups. At lower altitudes, water availability, a product of the interplay between temperature and rainfall, and negative effects of temperature appear as the most determinant factors. Maximum diversity was observed at mid‐altitudes, which reveals the importance from a conservation point of view of Mediterranean mountain ranges. The results suggest serious population declines in specialist species restricted to mountain areas as a result of climate warming in combination with habitat loss caused by the abandonment of grazing and mowing. They also suggest negative trends for generalist species due to an increase in aridity in combination with an increase in intensification of human land use in lowland areas. Such synergies are expected to lead to rapid declines in Mediterranean butterfly populations in the coming years, thereby posing a severe threat for the conservation of European biodiversity.     

Disentangling environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in a Mediterranean hotspot

We determined the environmental correlates of vascular plant biodiversity in the Baetic‐Rifan region, a plant biodiversity hotspot in the western Mediterranean. A catalog of the whole flora of Andalusia and northern Morocco, the region that includes most of the Baetic‐Rifan complex, was compiled using recent comprehensive floristic catalogs. Hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the different ecoregions of Andalusia and northern Morocco were conducted to determine their floristic affinities. Diversity patterns were studied further by focusing on regional endemic taxa. Endemic and nonendemic alpha diversities were regressed to several environmental variables. Finally, semi‐partial regressions on distance matrices were conducted to extract the respective contributions of climatic, altitudinal, lithological, and geographical distance matrices to beta diversity in endemic and nonendemic taxa. We found that West Rifan plant assemblages had more similarities with Andalusian ecoregions than with other nearby northern Morocco ecoregions. The endemic alpha diversity was explained relatively well by the environmental variables related to summer drought and extreme temperature values. Of all the variables, geographical distance contributed by far the most to spatial turnover in species diversity in the Baetic‐Rifan hotspot. In the Baetic range, climate was the most significant driver of nonendemic species beta diversity, while lithology and climate were the main drivers of endemic beta diversity. Despite the fact that Andalusia and northern Morocco are presently separated by the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, the Baetic and Rifan mountain ranges have many floristic similarities – especially in their western ranges – due to past migration of species across the Strait of Gibraltar. Climatic variables could be shaping the spatial distribution of endemic species richness throughout the Baetic‐Rifan hotspot. Determinants of spatial turnover in biodiversity in the Baetic‐Rifan hotspot vary in importance between endemic and nonendemic species.     

Climate Change Threatens Coexistence within Communities of Mediterranean Forested Wetlands

The Mediterranean region is one of the hot spots of climate change. This study aims at understanding what are the conditions sustaining tree diversity in Mediterranean wet forests under future scenarios of altered hydrological regimes. The core of the work is a quantitative, dynamic model describing the coexistence of different Mediterranean tree species, typical of arid or semi-arid wetlands. Two kind of species, i.e. Hygrophilous (drought sensitive, flood resistant) and Non-hygrophilous (drought resistant, flood sensitive), are broadly defined according to the distinct adaptive strategies of trees against water stress of summer drought and winter flooding. We argue that at intermediate levels of water supply the dual role of water (resource and stress) results in the coexistence of the two kind of species. A bifurcation analysis allows us to assess the effects of climate change on the coexistence of the two species in order to highlight the impacts of predicted climate scenarios on tree diversity. Specifically, the model has been applied to Mediterranean coastal swamp forests of Central Italy located at Castelporziano Estate and Circeo National Park. Our results show that there are distinct rainfall thresholds beyond which stable coexistence becomes impossible. Regional climatic projections show that the lower rainfall threshold may be approached or crossed during the XXI century, calling for an urgent adaptation and mitigation response to prevent biodiversity losses.     

Equilibrium of vegetation and climate at the European rear edge. A reference for climate change planning in mountainous Mediterranean regions

Mediterranean mountains harbour some of Europe’s highest floristic richness. This is accounted for largely by the mesoclimatic variety in these areas, along with the co-occurrence of a small area of Eurosiberian, Boreal and Mediterranean species, and those of Tertiary Subtropical origin. Throughout the twenty-first century, we are likely to witness a climate change-related modification of the biogeographic scenario in these mountains, and there is therefore a need for accurate climate regionalisations to serve as a reference of the abundance and distribution of species and communities, particularly those of a relictic nature. This paper presents an objective mapping method focussing on climate regions in a mountain range. The procedure was tested in the Cordillera Central Mountains of the Iberian Peninsula, in the western Mediterranean, one of the ranges occupying the largest area of the Mediterranean Basin. This regionalisation is based upon multivariate analyses and upon detailed cartography employing 27 climatic variables. We used spatial interpolation of data based on geographic information. We detected high climatic diversity in the mountain range studied. We identified 13 climatic regions, all of which form a varying mosaic throughout the annual temperature and rainfall cycle. This heterogeneity results from two geographically opposed gradients. The first one is the Mediterranean-Euro-Siberian variation of the mountain range. The second gradient involves the degree of oceanicity, which is negatively related to distance from the Atlantic Ocean. The existing correlation between the climatic regions detected and the flora existing therein enables the results to be situated within the projected trends of global warming, and their biogeographic and ecological consequences to be analysed.     

Buffered climate change effects in a Mediterranean pine species: range limit implications from a tree-ring study

Within-range effects of climatic change on tree growth at the sub-regional scale remain poorly understood. The aim of this research was to use climate and radial-growth data to explain how long-term climatic trends affect tree growth patterns along the southern limit of the range of Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii (Eastern Baetic Range, southern Spain). We used regional temperature and precipitation data and measured sub-regional radial growth variation in P. nigra forests over the past two centuries. A dynamic factor analysis was applied to test the hypothesis that trees subjected to different climates have experienced contrasting long-term growth variability. We defined four representative stand types based on average temperature and precipitation to evaluate climate–growth relationships using linear mixed-effect models and multi-model selection criteria. All four stand types experienced warming and declining precipitation throughout the twentieth century. From the onset of the twentieth century, synchronised basal-area increment decline was accounted for by dynamic factor analysis and was related to drought by climate–growth models; declining basal-area increment trends proved stronger at lower elevations, whereas temperature was positively related to growth in areas with high rainfall inputs. Given the contrasting sub-regional tree-growth responses to climate change, the role of drought becomes even more complex in shaping communities and affecting selection pressure in the Mediterranean mountain forests. Potential vegetation shifts will likely occur over the dry edge of species distributions, with major impacts on ecosystem structure and function.     

Climate and Species Richness Predict the Phylogenetic Structure of African Mammal Communities

We have little knowledge of how climatic variation (and by proxy, habitat variation) influences the phylogenetic structure of tropical communities. Here, we quantified the phylogenetic structure of mammal communities in Africa to investigate how community structure varies with respect to climate and species richness variation across the continent. In addition, we investigated how phylogenetic patterns vary across carnivores, primates, and ungulates. We predicted that climate would differentially affect the structure of communities from different clades due to between-clade biological variation. We examined 203 communities using two metrics, the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon (NTI) indices. We used simultaneous autoregressive models to predict community phylogenetic structure from climate variables and species richness. We found that most individual communities exhibited a phylogenetic structure consistent with a null model, but both climate and species richness significantly predicted variation in community phylogenetic metrics. Using NTI, species rich communities were composed of more distantly related taxa for all mammal communities, as well as for communities of carnivorans or ungulates. Temperature seasonality predicted the phylogenetic structure of mammal, carnivoran, and ungulate communities, and annual rainfall predicted primate community structure. Additional climate variables related to temperature and rainfall also predicted the phylogenetic structure of ungulate communities. We suggest that both past interspecific competition and habitat filtering have shaped variation in tropical mammal communities. The significant effect of climatic factors on community structure has important implications for the diversity of mammal communities given current models of future climate change.     

Estimating potential global sources and secondary spread of freshwater invasions under historical and future climates

Aim

We employed a climate-matching method to evaluate potential source regions of freshwater invasive species to an introduced region and their potential secondary spread under historical and future climates.

Location

Global source regions, with primary introductions to the Laurentian Great Lakes and secondary introductions throughout North America.

Methods

We conducted a climate-match analysis using the CLIMATE algorithm to estimate global source freshwater ecoregions under historical and future climates with an ensemble of global climate models for climate-change scenario SSP5-8.5. Given existing research, we use a climate match of ≥71.7% between ecoregions to indicate climatic conditions that will not inhibit the survival of introduced freshwater organisms. Further, we estimate the secondary spread of freshwater invaders to the ecoregions of North America under historical and future climates.

Results

We identified 54 global freshwater ecoregions with a climate match ≥71.7% to the recipient Laurentian Great Lakes under historical climatic conditions, and 11 additional ecoregions were predicted to exceed the threshold under climate change. Three of the 11 ecoregions were located in South America, a continent where no matches existed under historical climates and eight were located in the southern United States, southern Europe, Japan and New Zealand. Further, we identify 34 North American ecoregions of potential secondary spread of freshwater invasions from the Great Lakes under historical climatic conditions, and five ecoregions were predicted to exceed the threshold under climate change.

Main Conclusion

We provide a climate-match method that can be employed to assess the sources and spread of freshwater invasions under historical and future climate scenarios. Our climate-match method predicted increases in climate match between the recipient region and several potential source regions, and changes in areas of potential spread under climate change. The identified ecoregions are candidates for detailed biosecurity risk assessments and related management actions.     

Current and future effectiveness of protected areas for the conservation of endemic owls from the Atlantic Forest

Protected areas are essential conservation tools for mitigating the rapid decline of biodiversity. However, climate change represents one of the main challenges to their long-term effectiveness, as it induces rapid changes in the geographical distribution of many species. We used ecological niche modelling to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of five endemic owls in the Atlantic Forest and evaluated the effectiveness of the protected areas network for their conservation. The results indicate that the protected areas network is currently effective in terms of representativeness for most species; however, there will be a decline for all species in the coming decades because of climate change. We found that the ecoregions in the northern part of the Atlantic Forest will experience a higher loss of species, whereas those ecoregions in the southern part will be important stable climatic refuges in the future. Therefore, we emphasize the need to complement the network of protected areas to increase their representativeness in the distribution of species that will be affected by climate change, reducing species loss and increasing connectivity between suitable areas. We hope the results presented herein will serve as a basis for decision-makers to re-evaluate and improve current conservation policies and decisions in order to address the challenges posed by climate change and secure the survival of these species.     

Population trends and spatial synchrony in peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike in response to environmental change

Regional synchronization in species dynamics as well as particular ecological and demographic characteristics of peripheral populations poses special challenges for conservation purposes, particularly under the current scenario of global climate change. Here, we study the population trend and spatial synchrony of several peripheral populations of the endangered Lesser grey shrike Lanius minor at the western limit of its breeding range (southern France and northeast Spain). In an attempt to ascertain the effect of environmental change on the decline of the species we also look for evidence of climate changes in the breeding and wintering area of this shrike and related effects on vegetation by using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We found that the interannual fluctuations of the peripheral populations in France and Spain are strongly correlated, therefore suggesting that their decline can be under the influence of a common factor. We obtained clear evidence of climatic change (an increased thermal oscillation) in one peripheral population that could have resulted in a decrease of the NDVI index in the area. Our study finds correlational evidence that climatic variables in the breeding area may account for fluctuations in abundances of some populations and that environmental conditions experimented by some population could influence the fate of the neighboring populations. Our results indicate that the studied peripheral populations are spatially synchronized, so that conservation efforts should be applied at a large-scale encompassing all the isolated populations at the western border of the range of the species in the Mediterranean area.     

Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

There is ample evidence for species distributional changes in response to recent climate change, but most studies are biased toward better known taxa. Thus, an integrated approach is needed that includes the “cryptic diversity” represented partly by lichens, which are among the most sensitive organisms to environmental change due to their physiological characteristics. The use of functional traits and ecological attributes may improve the interpretation of how species respond to climate change. Thus, we quantified the future climate change impacts on 41 lichen species distributed in the Iberian Peninsula using ensemble climatic suitability maps (derived from generalized linear and generalized additive models, and classification and regression tree analysis) and different metrics. We also determined the lichen traits/attributes that might be related to a shared response to climate change. The results indicated a loss of bioclimatic space for 75% of the species studied and an increase for 10 species, especially in Mediterranean ones. Most of the species that will lose more than 70% of their current modeled distribution area comprised big macrolichens with cyanobacteria as the photobiont, thereby indicating a great biomass loss in forests, which might affect nutrient cycles. We also found that the predicted distributions were trait-related. Smaller species, green-algae lichens, and saxicolous and epiphyte species will respond better to future climate change. The results of this type of study may help to identify the species that are most vulnerable to climate change and facilitate the development of conservation measures to avoid their decline.     

Carry-over effects from passage regions are more important than breeding climate in determining the breeding phenology and performance of three avian migrants of conservation concern

Long distance migrants are declining more rapidly than residents, with birds that breed in Europe and winter in tropical Africa providing particularly clear examples. Causal mechanisms may include climate change, but are poorly understood partly because carry-over effects from non-breeding ranges can influence breeding performance. Using long-term data spanning four decades we assess how climatic variation in migrants’ winter, passage and breeding ranges determine timing of breeding and reproductive success. We do so for three Afro-European avian migrants of regional conservation concern (redstart, spotted flycatcher and wood warbler). We find that carry-over effects from passage regions consistently had stronger impacts on breeding phenology than breeding climate. Warm Mediterranean passage conditions promoted earlier breeding in all species, and redstarts also bred earlier following higher Sahel rainfall. Warmer springs on the breeding grounds promoted slightly earlier breeding in redstart and wood warbler, but not spotted flycatcher. Carry-over effects also typically influenced breeding performance to a greater extent than weather on the breeding grounds. Greater rainfall in the Sahel increased redstart brood size, warmer Mediterranean passage conditions increased spotted flycatcher brood size and, to a lesser extent, the number of wood warbler fledglings. In contrast to the concern regarding climate change impacts on migrants’ breeding grounds we found no evidence that warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds were associated with reduced reproductive performance. We thus find that climatic variation on the non-breeding grounds, especially passage regions, typically influenced migrants’ breeding phenology and demography more strongly than equivalent variation on the breeding sites. Such carry-over effects should be considered when assessing the causes of migrants’ marked population declines.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Germination strategies under climate change scenarios along an aridity gradient

由于年降雨量减少和变异性的增加，地中海东部地区的气候变化将对生态系统功能和植物群落动态产生重大影响。我们旨在了解种子库作为应对气候变化所导致的气候不确定性的潜在缓冲作用。我们研究了沿干旱梯度出现的18种常见物种的萌发策略。数据由干旱、 半干旱、地中海和中等地中海生态系统连续九年内萌发的土壤种子库获得。在半干旱和地中海地区，采用了模拟30%干旱和30%降雨增加的降雨处理方法。在连续三个萌发季的最佳灌溉条件下检测了萌发策略，以确定每种土壤样品的总体种子萌发能力。使用一种新颖的统计方法研究了萌发策略的变化，该方法考虑了可能影响种子发芽性的气候和生物因素。研究结果表明，优势种通过产生具有不同年度发芽率概率的种子来控制其发芽率。可产生种子的降雨量导致了关于可萌发性的两种主要种子类型：高萌发性(可形成短暂种子库的种子)和低萌发性(可形成持久种子库的种子)。我们得出的结论是，两种类型的干湿年之间种子产生的差异沿干旱梯度建立了一个稳定的平衡，使土壤种子库可以充当稳定机制，以防止降雨的不可预测性。此外，我们提出了地中海和干旱生态系统中占主导地位的一年生物种萌发策略的一般模型，该模型加强了土壤种子库可以作为应对该地区气候变化引起的气候不确定性的缓冲剂的概念。     

A climatic stability approach to prioritizing global conservation investments

Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002-2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term.