Post-Chornobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 1: estimation of thyroid doses

About 1.8 EBq of 131I was released into the atmosphere during the Chornobyl accident that occurred in Ukraine on April 26, 1986. More than 10% of this activity was deposited on the territory of Ukraine. Beginning 4-5 years after the accident, an increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among children, believed to be caused in part by exposure to 131I, has been observed in different regions of Ukraine. A three-level system of thyroid dose estimation was developed for the reconstruction of thyroid doses from 131I for the entire population of Ukrainian children aged 1 to 18 at the time of accident: (1) At the first level, individual doses were estimated for the approximately 99,000 children and adolescents with direct measurements of radioactivity in the thyroid (so-called direct thyroid measurements) performed in May-June of 1986; (2) at the second level, group doses by year of age and by gender were estimated for the population of 748 localities (with 208,400 children aged 1-18 in 1986) where direct thyroid measurements of good quality were performed on some of the residents; and (3) at the third level, group doses by age and by gender were estimated for the population of the localities where no thyroid measurements were made in 1986. The third-level doses were then aggregated over the population of each oblast. Data, models and procedures required for each level of thyroid dose estimation are described in the paper. At the first level, individual doses were found to range up to 27,000 mGy, with geometric and arithmetic means of 100 and 300 mGy, respectively. At the second level, group doses were found to be highest for the younger children (aged 1 to 4 years); doses for the older children (aged 16 to 18 years) were 3.5 times smaller. At the third level, average population-weighted doses were found to exceed 35 mGy in the five northern oblasts closer to the Chornobyl reactor site; to be in the 14- to 34-mGy range in seven other oblasts, Kyiv city and Crimea; and to be less than 13 mGy in all other oblasts.     

The effect of Chernobyl accident on the development of malignant diseases--situation after 20 years

The accident that occurred at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in 1986, released large quantities of radionuclides--among them radioiodine--into the atmosphere, thereby raising public concerns about its influence on thyroid structure and function, especially the development of malignancy. There were even reports about 700 deaths due to thyroid carcinoma in Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus, resulting from the accident. In this review we discussed the incidence of thyroid cancer in different parts of the world, especially in heavily contaminated countries, as Ukraine and Belarus, and the possible link between radioisotope activity in the thyroid and the development of malignancy. The study carried out in Minsk showed 40-fold increase of the incidence of thyroid cancer in the years 1986-1994, in comparison to the period 1977-1985. An increase of the incidence of thyroid cancer has generally been observed in many countries after the Chernobyl accident. We focused on the factors that may have an influence on this phenomenon, especially diagnostic tests, health care, social and environmental factors, like iodine level in water and soil. The results of molecular biology studies, e.g. RET translocation in carcinoma type RET/PTC1 in elderly and RET/PTC3 in children, and expression Ax1 and Gas6 in children were reviewed as well. We also mentioned other thyroid diseases, like nodular goitre, cysts, the disturbance of thyroid function and autoimmunity, possibly linked to the radiation after Chernobyl accident. Data obtained from the regions near Chernobyl showed no increased risk of other types of malignancy (leukaemia, Hodgkin's and non Hodgkin's lymphoma) in 1986-1996. In this article the epidemiology of thyroid diseases in Poland was also reviewed.     

Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine. Report 2: risk analysis

On April 26, 1986, the worst nuclear reactor accident to date occurred at the Chornobyl (Chernobyl) power plant in Ukraine. Millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia were exposed to radioactive nuclides, especially (131)I. Since then, research has been conducted on various subgroups of the exposed population, and it has been demonstrated that the large increase in thyroid cancer is related to the (131)I exposure. However, because of study limitations, quantified risk estimates are limited, and there remains a need for additional information. We conducted an ecological study to investigate the relationship between (131)I thyroid dose and the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in three highly contaminated oblasts in Northern Ukraine. The study population is comprised of 301,907 persons who were between the ages of 1 and 18 at the time of the Chornobyl accident and were living in 1,293 rural settlements in the three study oblasts. Twenty-four percent of the study population had individual thyroid dose estimates and the other 76% had "individualized" estimates of thyroid dose based on direct thyroid measurements taken from a person of the same age and gender living in the same or nearby settlement. Cases include 232 thyroid cancers diagnosed from January 1990 through December 2001, and all were confirmed histologically. Dose-response analyses took into account differences in the rate of ultrasound examinations conducted in the three study oblasts. The estimated excess relative risk per gray was 8.0 (95% CI = 4.6-15) and the excess absolute risk per 10,000 person-year gray was estimated to be 1.5 (95% CI = 1.2-1.9). In broad terms, these estimates are compatible with results of other studies from the contaminated areas, as well as studies of external radiation exposure.     

The time trends of cancer incidence in the most contaminated regions of the Ukraine before and after the Chernobyl accident

Cancer incidence rates in the Ukraine and in the most contaminated regions of the Ukraine are presented for the period before and after the Chernobyl accident.     

Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the Chernobyl accident

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the (131)I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy(2). The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy(-1); for the quadratic coefficient, it was -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy(-2). The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.     

Thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine: trends with reference to the Chernobyl accident

For the first time, a comparative analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident was done in a cohort that is almost as large as the general population. On the basis of thyroid doses from radioactive iodine in individuals aged 1-18 years at the time of accident, geographic regions of Ukraine with low and high average accumulated thyroid doses were established and designated "low-exposure" and "high-exposure" territories, respectively. A significant difference of thyroid cancer incidence rates as a function of time between the two territories was found. That is, the increase in the incidence was higher in high-exposure regions than in low-exposure regions. The incidence rates varied substantially among the different attained age-groups, especially in the youngest one (up to 19 years old). The analysis that was adjusted for screening and technological effects also indicated that in the high-exposure regions, thyroid cancer incidence rates at the age of diagnosis of 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were significantly higher in those born in 1982-1986 compared to those born in 1987-1991, while in the low-exposure regions, no significant difference was observed. The observed probable excess of radiation-induced thyroid cancer cases in adults exposed to radioactive iodine from the Chernobyl accident, especially in females, may be due to the high power of the present study. However, it should be noted that our investigation was not essentially free from ecological biases.     

High rates of neural tube defects in Ukraine

BACKGROUND: Oral consumption of synthetic folic acid can prevent neural tube defects (NTDs), which are some of the most severe congenital anomalies. The prevalence of NTDs in Ukraine and other countries of the former U.S.S.R. has not been well studied. We determined the prevalence of NTD-affected pregnancies in Northwestern Ukraine as background for policy decisions related to flour fortification in this country. METHODS: The Ukrainian-American Birth Defects Program was established in 1999 and conducts population- based surveillance of birth defects in several oblasts (states) of Ukraine. We determined the prevalence of NTDs in the Volyn and Rivne oblasts of Northwestern Ukraine for three years, 2000-2002. RESULTS: There were 75,928 births in the two oblasts in 2000-2002. There were 159 cases of NTDs among live births, stillbirths, and induced abortions. The prevalence of NTDs in the two oblasts in Northwestern Ukraine is 2.1 per 1000 births. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of NTD-affected pregnancies we found in Northwestern Ukraine is almost four times what it should be. This prevalence suggests that population folate deficiency is widespread in Ukraine. Universal folic acid fortification of flour milled in Ukraine is urgently needed to end this epidemic of birth defects. Such fortification would be expected to prevent folate deficiency anemia, heart attacks, and strokes.     

Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident

Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia.     

The dendrochronological proof of origin of oak churches located in the Czech Republic

Transcarpathian wooden churches started to dilapidate after World War I. To preserve the architectural heritage, five oak churches were transported from the region to the territory of today's Czech Republic. However, an exact date of their construction and origin of wood have not been specified and evidenced in literature. In this study, 63 samples have been collected and processed using standard dendrochronological methods. Three Baroque churches, coming from the Mukachevo district, were absolutely dated thanks to the preserved waney edge or sapwood tree rings to periods 1734–1744, 1753–1755, and 1783–1795. Two other churches, representing Gothic architecture, were transported from a more eastern part of Transcarpathian Ukraine. One of them was dated to the period after 1655 and the other could not be reliably dated using available reference chronologies. The created mean tree-ring width series representing individual churches showed strong correlations with the reference chronologies for Slovakia and northern Romania whereas correlations with the only Ukrainian chronology (Lviv region) were negligible. This could suggest low Transcarpathian tree-ring coherency and may indicate the need to create a dense network of regional tree-ring width chronologies in the regions surrounding the Carpathian Mountains.     

Epidemiologic data of malignant melanoma in Osijek-Baranya County (Eastern Croatia) during the period of 2000-2008

During the past several decades there has been a substantial increase in the incidence of malignant melanoma worldwide. The highest incidences were reported in New Zealand and Australia. In Europe the northern countries generally have a higher incidence. The aim of this retrospective study was to provide the incidence and mortality for all patients with malignant melanoma diagnosed in Osijek-Baranya County, Eastern Croatia, during 2000-2008. In the past 30 years in the Republic of Croatia the incidence of melanoma increased by 337%. During the period of 2000-2006 in Osijek-Baranja County, the incidence of melanoma increased by 13%. The incidence of melanoma increases with age, but in past decades melanoma is more often diagnosed in people aged 25-40. The mortality between 2000 and 2008 increased by 18%. The incidence of melanoma generally increases equally in men and women. The most common localization of skin melanoma in males was trunk and in females the lower extremities. Presently, in Osijek-Baranya County melanoma is 15th on the list of malignant tumors and represent 2% of all malignant tumors. In New Zealand, Australia and European northern countries mortality is reduced, as result of earlier diagnosis and education of risk groups. Unfortunately, in Osijek-Baranya County, in a comparison with these countries, the mortality is higher although incidence is the same or lower.     

Tree rings reveal extent of exposure to ionizing radiation in Scots pine Pinus sylvestris

Tree growth has been hypothesized to provide a reliable indicator of the state of the external environment. Elevated levels of background ionizing radiation may impair growth trajectories of trees by reducing the annual growth. Such effects of radiation may depend on the individual phenotype and interact with other environmental factors such as temperature and drought. We used standardized growth rates of 105 Scots pine Pinus sylvestris located near Chernobyl, Ukraine, varying in the level of background radiation by almost a factor 700. Mean growth rate was severely depressed and more variable in 1987–1989 and several other subsequent years, following the nuclear accident in April 1986 compared to the situation before 1986. The higher frequency of years with poor growth after 1986 was not caused by elevated temperature, drought or their interactions with background radiation. Elevated temperatures suppressed individual growth rates in particular years. Finally, the negative effects of radioactive contaminants were particularly pronounced in smaller trees. These findings suggest that radiation has suppressed growth rates of pines in Chernobyl, and that radiation interacts with other environmental factors and phenotypic traits of plants to influence their growth trajectories in complex ways.     

Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident: solid cancer incidence in various groups of the Ukrainian population

Several major international studies such as those performed on the A-bomb survivors, have shown a clear linkage between the exposure to ionizing radiation and the occurrence of various cancer types including leukemia. While these studies are mostly characterized by high dose rates, studies on populations exposed after the Chernobyl accident are in most cases characterized by low dose rates which are typical for occupational radiation protection. Here, data on more than 60,000 Ukrainian workers who participated in recovery operation works in Chernobyl in 1986–1987, more than 50,000 evacuees from the city of Prypyat and the 30 km zone, and about 360,000 residents of most contaminated territories are presented, which cover a period of observation from 1980 to 2004. For all cancers combined, statistically significant higher incidence rates than the national rates were found only for the recovery workers (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) 117.2%, 95% confidence interval: 114.1–120.3), while those for the other investigated groups were lower. In all groups under study a significant increase of thyroid cancer incidence rates has been registered. This increase appears to be associated, at least partly, with the fallout of radioiodine, and it was found not only in children, but also in adolescents and adults. For example, the most significant excess was found for male recovery workers corresponding to a factor of 8.0. It is important to keep in mind, however, that the contribution of confounding factors such as an intensified thyroid screening after the Chernobyl accident could not be quantified, in the present study. For female recovery workers there was also an excess of breast cancer over the national rates (SIR 190.6%; 95% confidence interval: 163.6–217.7%). An analysis of the two other groups (evacuees and residents of contaminated territories) gave controversial results: relative to the local standard there was a statistically significant excess, while comparison with the national level did not substantiate this conclusion.     

Cancer incidence in northern Sweden before and after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident

Sweden received about 5 % of the total release of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986. The distribution of the fallout mainly affected northern Sweden, where some parts of the population could have received an estimated annual effective dose of 1–2 mSv per year. It is disputed whether an increased incidence of cancer can be detected in epidemiological studies after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident outside the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. In the present paper, a possible exposure–response pattern between deposition of ¹³⁷Cs and cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident was investigated in the nine northernmost counties of Sweden (2.2 million inhabitants in 1986). The activity of ¹³⁷Cs from the fallout maps at 1986 was used as a proxy for the received dose of ionizing radiation. Diagnoses of cancer (ICD-7 code 140-209) from 1980 to 2009 were received from the Swedish Cancer Registry (273,222 cases). Age-adjusted incidence rate ratios, stratified by gender, were calculated with Poisson regression in two closed cohorts of the population in the nine counties 1980 and 1986, respectively. The follow-up periods were 1980–1985 and 1986–2009, respectively. The average surface-weighted deposition of ¹³⁷Cs at three geographical levels; county (n = 9), municipality (n = 95) and parish level (n = 612) was applied for the two cohorts to study the pre- and the post-Chernobyl periods separately. To analyze time trends, the age-standardized total cancer incidence was calculated for the general Swedish population and the population in the nine counties. Joinpoint regression was used to compare the average annual percent change in the general population and the study population within each gender. No obvious exposure–response pattern was seen in the age-adjusted total cancer incidence rate ratios. A spurious association between fallout and cancer incidence was present, where areas with the lowest incidence of cancer before the accident coincidentally had the lowest fallout of ¹³⁷Cs. Increasing the geographical resolution of exposure from nine county averages to 612 parish averages resulted in a two to three times higher value of variance in the regression model. There was a secular trend with an increase in age-standardized incidence of cancer in both genders from 1980 to 2009, but significant only in females. This trend was stronger and statistically significant for both genders in the general Swedish population compared to the nine counties. In conclusion, using both high quality cancer registry data and high resolution exposure maps of ¹³⁷Cs deposition, it was not possible to distinguish an effect of ¹³⁷Cs on cancer incidence after the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Sweden.     

Molecular cytogenetic characterization of chromosome 9-derived material in a human thyroid cancer cell line

The incidence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) increases significantly after exposure of the head and neck region to ionizing radiation, yet we know neither the steps involved in malignant transformation of thyroid epithelium nor the specific carcinogenic mode of action of radiation. Such increased tumor frequency became most evident in children after the 1986 nuclear accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine. In the eight years following the accident, the average incidence of childhood PTCs (chPTC) increased 70-fold in Belarus, 200-fold in Gomel, 10-fold in the Ukraine and 50-fold in Tschnigov, Kiev, Rovno, Shitomyr and Tscherkassy compared to the rate of about 1 tumor incidence per 106 children per year prior to 1986 (Likhtarev et al., 1995; Sobolev et al., 1997; Jacob et al., 1998). To study the etiology of radiation-induced thyroid cancer, we formed an international consortium to investigate chromosomal changes and altered gene expression in cases of post-Chernobyl chPTC. Our approach is based on karyotyping of primary cultures established from chPTC specimens, establishment of cell lines and studies of genotype-phenotype relationships through high resolution chromosome analysis, DNA/cDNA micro-array studies, and mouse xenografts that test for tumorigenicity. Here, we report the application of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)-based techniques for the molecular cytogenetic characterization of a highly tumorigenic chPTC cell line, S48TK, and its subclones. Using chromosome 9 rearrangements as an example, we describe a new approach termed 'BAC-FISH' to rapidly delineate chromosomal breakpoints, an important step towards a better understanding of the formation of translocations and their functional consequences.     

Marked increase in breast cancer incidence in young women: A 10-year study from Northern Iran, 2004–2013

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most frequent cancer among women worldwide. Breast cancer incidence in young women is a health issue of concern, especially in middle-income countries such as Iran. The aim of this study is to report the breast cancer incidence variations in Golestan province, Iran, over a 10-year period (2004–2013).MethodsWe analyzed data from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR), which is a high-quality cancer registry collecting data on primary cancers based on standard protocols throughout the Golestan province. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Time trends in ASRs and age-specific rates were evaluated using Joinpoint regressions. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with correspondence 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated.ResultsA total of 2106 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed during the study period. Most cases occurred in women living in urban areas: 1449 cases (68%) versus 657 cases (31%) in rural areas. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed over the 10-year study period amongst women of all ages (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.2–7.8) as well as amongst women in the age groups 20–29 years (AAPC = 10.0; 95%CI: 1.7–19.0) and 30–39 years (AAPC = 5.1; 95%CI: 1.4–9.0).ConclusionThe incidence of breast cancer increased between 2004 and 2013 in Golestan province amongst all age groups, and in particular amongst women aged 20–39 years. Breast cancer should be considered a high priority for health policy making in our community.     

Gastric cancer epidemiology from 2009 to 2019 in Dnipro Region,Ukraine

BackgroundGastric cancer (GC) is in top-five the most frequent cancers in Ukrainian males and is the third cause of death among patients with cancer. GC keeps its leading position in cancer ranks despite the decline in incidence and mortality over the last 50 years. Local epidemiological information will help in better targeting medical and public health interventions.Patients and methodsThe data about 8438 patients with newly diagnosed GC between 2009 and 2019 was obtained from Dnipro Cancer Registry.ResultsIncidence decreased from 24.5 to 22.6, mortality decreased from 21.4 to 15.7 (per 100000), death rate increased from 0.64 to 1.04 between 2009 and 2019. Over 11 years of observation incidence was 23.4, mortality was 19.4, death rate was 0.721. Standardised incidence ratio was 1.42, standardised mortality rate was 1.67; age-standardised incidence was 25.5, age-standardised mortality was 21.2 (European standard). Median (95% confidence interval (95% CI)) survival of the patients was 172 (165−178) days. One-year survival rate fluctuated between 27% and 34%. Male sex and older age were associated with higher risk of death (hazard ratio (95% CI) – 1.08 (1.03–1.13) vs females and 1.15 (1.12–1.17) per 10-years increase of age, respectively).ConclusionsThe study describes the trends in epidemiology of gastric cancer in Dnipro region, Ukraine, between 2009 and 2019. The need for the national prevention strategy of GC in Ukraine was identified.     

Comparison of the post-Chernobyl 137Cs contamination of mushrooms from eastern Europe, Sweden, and North America.

A comparison was made of 134Cs and 137Cs contamination in fungi from eastern Europe and eastern North America. Mean activities of 25 Ukrainian, 6 Swedish, and 10 North American collections were 4,660, 9,750, and 205 Bq/kg (dry weight), respectively. Additional measurements were made on samples from the Moscow, southern Belarus, and Yugoslavia/Bulgaria regions. Activity values were found to vary by several orders of magnitude within all geographic areas, even for the same mushroom species. Significantly higher specific activities were observed in mycorrhizal species than in saprophytic and parasitic fungi. Unfortunately, many of the European mycorrhizal species considered as prized edibles contained unacceptably high levels of 137Cs (> 1,000 Bq/kg [dry weight]) and should be used sparingly as food. By contrast, no mushrooms collected in Ontario or northern Michigan exceeded 1,000 Bq of 137Cs per kg (dry weight). The excessive 137Cs contamination was evident in mushrooms from areas that had substantial fallout from the 1986 accident in reactor 4 at the Chernobyl nuclear power station. However, observations suggest that about 20% of the 137Cs in eastern Europe (Moscow area, Belarus, and Ukraine) is of non-Chernobyl origin.     

Trends in childhood leukaemia in the Nordic countries in relation to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing.

OBJECTIVE--To obtain further information about the risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to ionising radiation at low doses and low dose rates before or after birth or to the father''s testes shortly before conception. DESIGN--Observational study of trends in incidence of childhood leukaemia in relation to estimated radiation exposures due to fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing during the 1950s and 1960s. SETTING--Nordic countries. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 15 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence rates of leukaemia by age at diagnosis, sex, country, and calendar year of diagnosis or year of birth; exposure category; relation between leukaemia and exposure for children aged 0-14 and 0-4 separately. RESULTS--During the high fallout period the average estimated dose equivalent to the fetal red bone marrow was around 140 mu Sv and the average annual testicular dose 140 mu Sv. There was little evidence of increased incidence of leukaemia among children born in these years. Doses to the red bone marrow of a child after birth were higher, and during the high exposure period children would have been subjected to an additional dose equivalent of around 1500 mu Sv, similar to doses received by children in several parts of central and eastern Europe owing to the Chernobyl accident and about 50% greater than the annual dose equivalent to the red bone marrow of a child from natural radiation. leukaemia incidence and red marrow dose was not related overall, but rates of leukaemia in the high exposure period were slightly higher than in the surrounding medium exposure period (relative risk for ages 0-14: 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.14; for ages 0-4: 1.11, 1.00 to 1.24). CONCLUSIONS--Current predicted risks of childhood leukaemia after exposure to radiation are not greatly underestimated for low dose rate exposures.     

Analysis of thyroid cancer data from the Ukraine after ’Chernobyl’ using a two-mutation carcinogenesis model

The thyroid cancer data of children in the northern regions of the Ukraine after the reactor accident at Chernobyl were combined with thyroid dose measurements in the same regions and analysed using a two- mutation carcinogenesis model. The best fit was obtained for radiation acting as an initiating agent, i.e. on the first mutation of the model. The observed relatively high increase of thyroid cancer incidence after 1990 in children exposed to radiation released after the reactor accident could be ascribed to the high thyroid doses and the relatively low background thyroid cancer incidence in children. The maximum annual incidence is predicted to occur fairly soon after the reactor accident, i.e. about 10 years. For adults, the predicted relative increase of annual thyroid cancers is much lower than for children younger than 20 years. The modelling results are used to derive risk estimates for radiation-induced thyroid cancer. These risk estimates are dependent on age at exposure, follow-up time and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The calculated excess absolute risk for a population of all ages is about one-third of that currently used by ICRP, but for children the calculated absolute risks are about a factor of 3 higher than derived in other epidemiological studies. The model results indicate that the excess absolute radiation risk per unit dose for children is about the same as or a little lower than that for adults. Received: 11 May 1999 / Accepted: 30 December 1999     

Thyroid cancer incidence among Chernobyl emergency workers: follow-up period 1986-2003

A vast amount of research articles devoted to the increase in childhood thyroid cancer incidence in the most contaminated by radionuclides territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine affected by the Chernobyl accident were published recent years. However, the amount of research studies of thyroid cancer incidence among the Chernobyl emergency workers (liquidators) is quite scanty. In the article results of the study of thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort of the Chernobyl liquidators (103427 persons) residing in 6 administrative regions of Russia (North-West, Volgo-Vyatsky, Central-Chernozemny, Povolzhsky, North-Caucasus and Urals) are described and discussed. For the period 1986-2003 eighty seven cases of thyroid cancer were detected in the cohort. Statistically significant excess of the incidence among liquidators over baseline incidence, SIR = 3.39 (95% CI: 2.73; 4.16), among men of Russia has been found. The highest thyroid cancer incidence (SIR = 6.49) was registered among liquidators who had been involved in mitigation works during April-July 1986. At the same time no statistically significant relationship between the incidence rate and external radiation dose, ERR = 1.68 (95% CI: -0.95; 6.46), was detected.