Can we disentangle predator–prey interactions from species distributions at a macro‐scale? A case study with a raptor species

There is a debate on whether an influence of biotic interactions on species distributions can be reflected at macro‐scale levels. Whereas the influence of biotic interactions on spatial arrangements is beginning to be studied at local scales, similar studies at macro‐scale levels are scarce. There is no example disentangling, from other similarities with related species, the influence of predator–prey interactions on species distributions at macro‐scale levels. In this study we aimed to disentangle predator–prey interactions from species distribution data following an experimental approach including a factorial design. As a case of study we selected the short‐toed eagle because of its known specialization on certain prey reptiles. We used presence–absence data at a 100 km2 spatial resolution to extract the explanatory capacity of different environmental predictors (five abiotic and two biotic predictors) on the short‐toed eagle species distribution in peninsular Spain. Abiotic predictors were relevant climatic and topographic variables, and relevant biotic predictors were prey richness and forest density. In addition to the short‐toed eagle, we also obtained the predictor's explanatory capacities for 1) species of the same family Accipitridae (as a reference), 2) for other birds of different families (as controls) and 3) artificial species with randomly selected presences (as null models). We run 650 models to test for similarities of the short‐toed eagle, controls and null models with reference species, assessed by regressions of explanatory capacities. We found higher similarities between the short‐toed eagle and other species of the family Accipitridae than for the other two groups. Once corrected by the family effect, our analyses revealed a signal of predator–prey interaction embedded in species distribution data. This result was corroborated with additional analyses testing for differences in the concordance between the distributions of different bird categories and the distributions of either prey or non‐prey species of the short‐toed eagle. Our analyses were useful to disentangle a signal of predator–prey interactions from species distribution data at a macro‐scale. This study highlights the importance of disentangling specific features from the variation shared with a given taxonomic level.     

Nest‐site characteristics,breeding success and competitive interactions between two recently sympatric apex predators

An influential period in avian life‐cycles is the annual breeding season, when competition over suitable nesting sites and territories is a key factor that can determine fitness and distribution, especially for species that are highly selective in their nesting habitats. We analysed nest‐site characteristics, breeding success and competitive interactions between two apex predator populations. Whereas the Short‐toed Eagle Circaetus gallicus has nested in the Judean Foothills (Israel) for a long time, the Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus has only invaded the nesting habitat of the Short‐toed Eagle during their breeding season in the last two decades. These two recently sympatric species have similar nesting ecology and frequently use the same nests. They are therefore expected to compete over nesting sites and territories. We analysed interspecific interactions between these two species by combining information from comprehensive observational, experimental, GIS analysis and remote sensing data, deriving 65 variables to characterize the nest‐sites used and the breeding success in 381 breeding attempts over four consecutive breeding seasons. To assess interspecific and intraspecific territorial behaviour and aggressiveness, stuffed Long‐legged Buzzards and Short‐toed Eagles were presented close to nests. Nest‐site characteristics overlapped substantially between species, and Long‐legged Buzzards occupied 21% of all Short‐toed Eagle nests. Intraspecific aggression rates among Long‐legged Buzzards were higher than their interspecific aggression rates with Short‐toed Eagles and also higher than intraspecific aggression among Short‐toed Eagles. Long‐legged Buzzard and Short‐toed Eagle breeding densities (1.59 ± 0.11 and 2.96 ± 0.11 pairs per 10 km², respectively) are likely to be the highest across their respective breeding distributions, with a maximum productivity of 0.96 ± 0.01 and 0.56 ± 0.05 (young fledged/breeding pair) for Long‐legged Buzzard and Short‐toed Eagle, respectively. Intraspecific interactions among both species play an important role in determining their breeding success and the spatial distribution of nesting sites. Our results suggest that interspecific competition over nesting sites and territories between both species, and the potential dominance of Long‐legged Buzzard, has both direct and indirect impacts on the spatial and demographic distribution of Short‐toed Eagles due to the recent establishment of Long‐legged Buzzard territories in the Judean breeding area.     

Variation in predator species abundance can cause variable selection pressure on warning signaling prey

Predation pressure is expected to drive visual warning signals to evolve toward conspicuousness. However, coloration of defended species varies tremendously and can at certain instances be considered as more camouflaged rather than conspicuous. Recent theoretical studies suggest that the variation in signal conspicuousness can be caused by variation (within or between species) in predators' willingness to attack defended prey or by the broadness of the predators' signal generalization. If some of the predator species are capable of coping with the secondary defenses of their prey, selection can favor reduced prey signal conspicuousness via reduced detectability or recognition. In this study, we combine data collected during three large-scale field experiments to assess whether variation in avian predator species (red kite, black kite, common buzzard, short-toed eagle, and booted eagle) affects the predation pressure on warningly and non-warningly colored artificial snakes. Predation pressure varied among locations and interestingly, if common buzzards were abundant, there were disadvantages to snakes possessing warning signaling. Our results indicate that predator community can have important consequences on the evolution of warning signals. Predators that ignore the warning signal and defense can be the key for the maintenance of variation in warning signal architecture and maintenance of inconspicuous signaling.     

Finessing atlas data for species distribution models

Aim The spatial resolution of species atlases and therefore resulting model predictions are often too coarse for local applications. Collecting distribution data at a finer resolution for large numbers of species requires a comprehensive sampling effort, making it impractical and expensive. This study outlines the incorporation of existing knowledge into a conventional approach to predict the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle (Aquila fasciata) at a resolution 100 times finer than available atlas data. Location Malaga province, Andalusia, southern Spain. Methods A Bayesian expert system was proposed to utilize the knowledge from distribution models to yield the probability of a species being recorded at a finer resolution (1 × 1 km) than the original atlas data (10 × 10 km). The recorded probability was then used as a weight vector to generate a sampling scheme from the species atlas to enhance the accuracy of the modelling procedure. The maximum entropy for species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) was used as the species distribution model. A comparison was made between the results of the MaxEnt using the enhanced and, the random sampling scheme, based on four groups of environmental variables: topographic, climatic, biological and anthropogenic. Results The models with the sampling scheme enhanced by an expert system had a higher discriminative capacity than the baseline models. The downscaled (i.e. finer scale) species distribution maps using a hybrid MaxEnt/expert system approach were more specific to the nest locations and were more contrasted than those of the baseline model. Main conclusions The proposed method is a feasible substitute for comprehensive field work. The approach developed in this study is applicable for predicting the distribution of Bonelli’s eagle at a local scale from a national‐level occurrence data set; however, the usefulness of this approach may be limited to well‐known species.     

Territorial occupancy dynamics in a forest raptor community

A Markovian modeling approach was used to explore territorial interactions among three forest raptors coexisting in a forested natural area in southeast Spain: the booted eagle (Hieraaetus pennatus), the common buzzard (Buteo buteo) and the northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis). Using field data collected over a period of 12 years, 11 annual transition matrices were built, considering four occupancy states for each territory. The model describes transitional processes (colonization, abandonment, replacement and persistence), permits temporal variations in the transition matrix to be tested, and simulates territorial occupation for a few subsequent years. Parameters for the species and community dynamics were described in terms of turnover times and damping ratio. A perturbation analysis was performed to simulate the effects of changes in the transition probabilities on the stable state distribution. Our results indicate the existence of a stable community, largely dominated by the booted eagles, and described by a time-invariant transition matrix. Despite the stability observed, the territorial system is highly dynamic, with frequent abandonment and colonization events, although interspecific territorial interactions (the replacement of one species by another) are uncommon. Consequently, the three species appear to follow relatively independent occupancy dynamics. Simulation of potential management actions showed that substantial increases in the number of territories occupied by the less common species (goshawk and buzzard) can only be attained if relatively large increases in their reoccupation and colonization rates are considered.     

Climatic niche of the Saker Falcon Falco cherrug: predicted new areas to direct population surveys in Central Asia

Accurate species distribution data across remote and extensive geographical areas are difficult to obtain. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope models to determine climatic constraints on the distribution of the migratory Saker Falcon Falco cherrug to identify areas in data-deficient regions that may contain unidentified populations. Sakers live at low densities across large ranges in remote regions, making distribution status difficult to assess. Using presence-background data and eight bioclimatic variables within a species distribution modelling framework, we applied MaxEnt to construct models for both breeding and wintering ranges. Occurrence data were spatially filtered and climatic variables tested for multicollinearity before selecting best fit models using the Akaike information criterion by tuning MaxEnt parameters. Model predictive performance tested using the continuous Boyce index (B) was high for both breeding (B_TEST = 0.921) and wintering models (B_TEST = 0.735), with low omission rates and minimal overfitting. The Saker climatic niche was defined by precipitation in the warmest quarter in the breeding range model, and mean temperature in the wettest quarter in the wintering range model. Our models accurately predicted areas of highest climate suitability and defined the climatic constraints on a wide-ranging rare species, suggesting that climate is a key determinant of Saker distribution across macro-scales. We recommend targeted population surveys for the Saker based on model predictions to areas of highest climatic suitability in key regions with distribution knowledge gaps, in particular the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in western China. Further applications of our models could identify protected areas and reintroduction sites, inform development conflicts, and assess the impact of climate change on distributions.     

Updating bird species distribution at large spatial scales: applications of habitat modelling to data from long-term monitoring programs

Mapping of species distributions at large spatial scales has been often based on the representation of gathered observations in a general grid atlas framework. More recently, subsampling and subsequent interpolation or habitat spatial modelling techniques have been incorporated in these projects to allow more detailed species mapping. Here, we explore the usefulness of data from long-term monitoring (LTM) projects, primarily aimed at estimating trends in species abundance and collected at shorter time intervals (usually yearly) than atlas data, to develop predictive habitat models. We modelled habitat occupancy for 99 species using a bird LTM program and evaluated the predictive accuracy of these models using independent data from a contemporary and comprehensive breeding bird atlas project from the same region. Habitat models from LTM data using generalized linear modelling were significant for all the species and generally showed a high predictive power, albeit lower than that from atlas models. Sample size and species range size and niche breadth were the most important factors behind variability in model predictive accuracy, whereas the spatial distribution of sampling units at a given sample size had minor effects. Although predictive accuracy of habitat modelling was strongly species dependent, increases in sample size and, secondarily, a better spatial distribution of sampling units should lead to more powerful predictive distribution models. We suggest that data from LTM programs, now established in a large number of countries, has the potential for being a major source of good quality data suitable for the estimation and regularly update of distributions at large spatial scales for a number of species.     

Optimising long‐term monitoring projects for species distribution modelling: how atlas data may help

Long‐term biodiversity monitoring data are mainly used to estimate changes in species occupancy or abundance over time, but they may also be incorporated into predictive models to document species distributions in space. Although changes in occupancy or abundance may be estimated from a relatively limited number of sampling units, small sample size may lead to inaccurate spatial models and maps of predicted species distributions. We provide a methodological approach to estimate the minimum sample size needed in monitoring projects to produce accurate species distribution models and maps. The method assumes that monitoring data are not yet available when sampling strategies are to be designed and is based on external distribution data from atlas projects. Atlas data are typically collected in a large number of sampling units during a restricted timeframe and are often similar in nature to the information gathered from long‐term monitoring projects. The large number of sampling units in atlas projects makes it possible to simulate a broad gradient of sample sizes in monitoring data and to examine how the number of sampling units influences the accuracy of the models. We apply the method to several bird species using data from a regional breeding bird atlas. We explore the effect of prevalence, range size and habitat specialization of the species on the sample size needed to generate accurate models. Model accuracy is sensitive to particularly small sample sizes and levels off beyond a sufficiently large number of sampling units that varies among species depending mainly on their prevalence. The integration of spatial modelling techniques into monitoring projects is a cost‐effective approach as it offers the possibility to estimate the dynamics of species distributions in space and over time. We believe our innovative method will help in the sampling design of future monitoring projects aiming to achieve such integration.     

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco‐geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis, Coronella austriaca, and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis. Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature‐related, factors.     

Models of large-scale breeding-bird distribution as a function of macro-climate in Ontario, Canada

Aim We modelled the relationship of breeding evidence for five species of forest songbirds (ruby-crowned kinglet (Regulus calendula) Blackburnian warbler (Dendroica fusca), black-throated blue warbler (Dendroica caerulescens), bay-breasted warbler (Dendrioca castanea) and Connecticut warbler (Oporornis agilis)) and a variety of macro-climate variables to examine the importance of climate as a factor determining distribution of breeding in these species and to assess the usefulness of spatial predictions generated from these models. Location Modelling was conducted over the entire province of Ontario, Canada, an area of ≈900,000 km². Methods Data on the distribution of breeding in the province was derived from the Breeding Bird Atlas of Ontario. We used logistic regression to model the relationship between the probability of breeding (assessed in 10 km×10 km blocks) and estimates of a variety of climate variables at the same scale. Models were selected that had the least number of explanatory variables while at the same time having close to the best possible classification accuracy. Results The final models for these five species had from one to six explanatory variables and an overall concordance of 70.4% to 86.3% indicating a good classification accuracy. Results from subsampling 50% of the original data ten times indicate that (1) the classification accuracy of the model for data used to generate the model is not very sensitive to the specific observations used to generate the model (2) the classification accuracy of test data is close to the classification accuracy of the model data and (3) the classification accuracy of the test data is not dependent on the specific observations used to generate the model. We generated a spatial prediction of the probability of occurrence of each species for Ontario using the relationships defined by the logistic regression models and using 1 km gridded estimates of the necessary climate variables. These probability maps closely matched the maps of observed evidence of breeding from the Atlas. Main conclusions Although mechanisms controlling breeding distribution cannot be determined using this method, we can conclude that (1) macro-climate is an important factor directly and/or indirectly determining distribution of breeding in these species and (2) spatial predictions of probability of breeding are accurate enough to be useful in predicting probability of breeding in unsampled areas.     

Lifespan Analyses of Forest Raptor Nests: Patterns of Creation,Persistence and Reuse

Structural elements for breeding such as nests are key resources for the conservation of bird populations. This is especially true when structural elements require a specific and restricted habitat, or if the construction of nests is costly in time and energy. The availability of nesting-platforms is influenced by nest creation and persistence. In a Mediterranean forest in southeastern Spain, nesting-platforms are the only structural element for three forest-dwelling raptor species: booted eagle Aquila pennata, common buzzard Buteo buteo and northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis. From 1998 to 2013, we tracked the fate of 157 nesting-platforms built and reused by these species with the aim of determining the rates of creation and destruction of nesting-platforms, estimating nest persistence by applying two survival analyses, describing the pattern of nest reuse and testing the effects of nest use on breeding success. Nest creation and destruction rates were low (0.14 and 0.05, respectively). Using Kaplan Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional-hazards regression models we found that median nest longevity was 12 years and that this was not significantly affected by nest characteristics, nest-tree dimensions, nest-builder species, or frequency of use of the platform. We also estimated a transition matrix, considering the different stages of nest occupation (vacant or occupied by one of the focal species), to obtain the fundamental matrix and the average life expectancies of nests, which varied from 17.9 to 19.7 years. Eighty six percent of nests were used in at least one breeding attempt, 67.5% were reused and 17.8% were successively occupied by at least two of the study species. The frequency of nest use had no significant effects on the breeding success of any species. We conclude that nesting-platforms constitute an important resource for forest raptors and that their longevity is sufficiently high to allow their reuse in multiple breeding attempts.     

The effects of habitat quality and female size on the productivity of the lesser spotted eagle Aquila pomarina in the light of the alternative prey hypothesis

Habitat quality is an important but insufficiently understood concept in ecology and conservation biology, due to geographic and temporal variation as well as interaction with individual quality. In 1994–2002, we studied the Estonian population of the lesser spotted eagle Aquila pomarina in order to (1) explore the relative contributions of habitat and female size in reproductive success; (2) check for a switch to alternative prey in vole‐poor years and the relevant variation in annual habitat quality as confirmed in the common buzzard Buteo buteo in the same area. We measured five landscape variables, the number of neighbouring conspecifics and the relative size of the female according to large moulted feathers in 77 nesting territories, and related this to the eagles’ productivity in vole‐rich and vole‐poor years. Nesting lesser spotted eagles benefited from heterogeneous landscapes and suffered from the neighbourhood of conspecifics. There was no evidence that different‐sized females used different habitats. In general, female size was positively related to productivity in vole‐poor but not vole‐rich years, but in the presence of competitors, large size appeared to be disadvantageous. The mean annual productivity of the eagle was well correlated with that of the buzzard, both having peaks after every three years. In contrast to the buzzard, the share of voles in the eagle's diet and its habitat quality did not differ significantly between good and poor years. We concluded that despite a superficial ecological similarity to the buzzard, the lesser spotted eagle did not behave as predicted by the alternative prey hypothesis, but the study confirmed that annual variation in prey utilization and relative habitat quality are parts of the same functional response. Non‐switching to alternative prey may be related to a historical foraging strategy, used by the eagles before they spread to agricultural landscapes, since the current effects of body size strongly suggested food shortage in vole‐poor years.     

Modelling habitat use and distribution of golden eagles <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aquila chrysaetos</Emphasis> in a low-density area of the Iberian Peninsula

We analyse the current situation of the Golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) in the region of Galicia in NW Spain. At present, the entire Galician population (five pairs) is located within an area of about 2000 km² in the province of Ourense. To identify high-priority areas for golden eagle conservation, we derived predictive models of habitat suitability using logistic regression and a Geographic Information System (GIS). Specifically, to model the distribution of the breeding population we considered topographic features, land use and degree of humanization, using a 10 × 10 km grid. Presence/absence of golden eagle nests was used as the dependent variable; analyses were performed both considering current nesting areas and considering old nesting areas (1960s and 70s). At the spatial scale considered, the best predictors of habitat suitability for breeding were topographical variables indicative of rugged relief. For current nesting areas the most parsimonious model included maximum altitude. We consider that the predictive models obtained may be of use for the monitoring and conservation management of the golden eagle population in this region. Conservation problems associated with habitat constraints such as food supply, availability of nesting sites, changes in land use and human disturbance are discussed.     

Availability of optimal‐sized prey affects global distribution patterns of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos

Climate and landscape change are expected to significantly affect trophic interactions, which will especially harm top predators such as the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos. Availability of optimal prey is recognized to influence reproductive success of raptors on a regional scale. For the golden eagle, medium‐sized prey species between 0.5 and 5 kg are widely considered to be optimal prey during the breeding season, whereas smaller and larger species are deemed as energetically sub‐optimal. However, knowledge about the effects of optimal prey availability is still scarce on larger scales. To decrease this apparent knowledge gap, we combined biogeographical information on range margins with information about the foraging behaviour and reproductive success of golden eagles from 67 studies spanning the Northern Hemisphere. We hypothesized that availability of optimal prey will affect foraging behaviour and breeding success and, thus, distribution patterns of the golden eagle not only on a local but also on a continental scale. We correlated the diet breadth quantifying foraging generalism, breeding success and proportions of small (< 0.5 kg), medium (0.5–5 kg) and large‐sized (> 5 kg) prey species within the diet with the minimum distance of the examined eagles to the actual species distribution boundary. Closer to the range edge, we observed decreased proportions of medium‐sized prey species and decreasing breeding success of golden eagles. Diet breadth as well as proportions of small and large‐sized prey species increased, however, towards the range edge. Thus, availability of optimal‐sized prey species seems to be a crucial driver of foraging behaviour, breeding success and distribution of golden eagles on a continental scale. However, underlying effects of landscape characteristics and human influence on optimal prey availability has to be investigated in further large‐scale studies to fully understand the major threats facing the golden eagle and possibly other large terrestrial birds of prey.     

DNA barcodes of Philippine accipitrids

DNA barcoding is a molecular method that rapidly identifies an individual to a known taxon or its closest relative based on a 650-bp fragment of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). In this study, DNA barcodes of members of the family Accipitridae, including Haliastur indus (brahminy kite), Haliaeetus leucogaster (white-bellied sea eagle), Ichthyophaga ichthyaetus (grey-headed fish eagle), Spilornis holospilus (crested serpent-eagle), Spizaetus philippensis (Philippine hawk-eagle), and Pithecophaga jefferyi (Philippine eagle), are reported for the first time. All individuals sampled are kept at the Philippine Eagle Center in Davao City, Philippines. Basic local alignment search tool results demonstrated that the COI sequences for these species were unique. The COI gene trees constructed using the maximum-likelihood and neighbour-joining (NJ) methods supported the monophyly of the booted eagles of the Aquilinae and the sea eagles of the Haliaeetinae but not the kites of the Milvinae.     

Where are all the fish: potential of biogeographical maps to project current and future distribution patterns of freshwater species

The dendritic structure of river networks is commonly argued against use of species atlas data for modeling freshwater species distributions, but little has been done to test the potential of grid-based data in predictive species mapping. Using four different niche-based models and three different climate change projections for the middle of the 21st century merged pairwise as well as within a consensus modeling framework, we studied the variability in current and future distribution patterns of 38 freshwater fish species across Germany. We used grid-based (11×11 km) fish distribution maps and numerous climatic, topographic, hydromorphologic, and anthropogenic factors derived from environmental maps at a finer scale resolution (250 m-1 km). Apart from the explicit predictor selection, our modeling framework included uncertainty estimation for all phases of the modeling process. We found that the predictive performance of some niche-based models is excellent independent of the predictor data set used, emphasizing the importance of a well-grounded predictor selection process. Though important, climate was not a primary key factor for any of the studied fish species groups, in contrast to substrate preferences, hierarchical river structure, and topography. Generally, distribution ranges of cold-water and warm-water species are expected to change significantly in the future; however, the extent of changes is highly uncertain. Finally, we show that the mismatch between the current and future ranges of climatic variables of more than 90% is the most limiting factor regarding reliability of our future estimates. Our study highlighted the underestimated potential of grid cell information in biogeographical modeling of freshwater species and provides a comprehensive modeling framework for predictive mapping of species distributions and evaluation of the associated uncertainties.     

Territorial occupancy and breeding performance in a migratory raptor do not follow ideal despotic distribution patterns

It has commonly been argued that many territorial species select their breeding sites following an ideal despotic distribution model, in which the most productive, high-quality territories are more frequently occupied. Theoretical and empirical studies have shown that this occupancy pattern may have population regulatory consequences, leading to density dependence in heterogeneous habitats. During a 9-year research project in a forested area of south-eastern Spain, we tested some of the predictions of the ideal despotic distribution model and the site-dependent population regulation theory in a migratory raptor species, the booted eagle Hieraaetus pennatus . Contrary to the predictions of the despotic model, our results showed that the temporal pattern of territorial occupation did not differ from randomness, and that the territory occupancy rate was not significantly related to the reproductive parameters considered. At population level, the breeding variables were density independent, suggesting the absence of site-dependent regulation. In addition, we were unable to find significant differences in the habitat characteristics between high-quality and low-quality territories, classified according to the criteria of both occupancy frequency and average productivity. Overall, our results suggest that booted eagles select their territories at random, probably due to the lack of strong environmental heterogeneity, and that occupancy rate is not a good measure of territory quality for the population studied.     

Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub

Aim Using predictive species distribution and ecological niche modelling our objectives are: (1) to identify important climatic drivers of distribution at regional scales of a locally complex and dynamic system – California sage scrub; (2) to map suitable sage scrub habitat in California; and (3) to distinguish between bioclimatic niches of floristic groups within sage scrub to assess the conservation significance of analysing such species groups. Location Coastal mediterranean‐type shrublands of southern and central California. Methods Using point localities from georeferenced herbarium records, we modelled the potential distribution and bioclimatic envelopes of 14 characteristic sage scrub species and three floristic groups (south‐coastal, coastal–interior disjunct and broadly distributed species) based upon current climate conditions. Maxent was used to map climatically suitable habitat, while principal components analysis followed by canonical discriminant analysis were used to distinguish between floristic groups and visualize species and group distributions in multivariate ecological space. Results Geographical distribution patterns of individual species were mirrored in the habitat suitability maps of floristic groups, notably the disjunct distribution of the coastal–interior species. Overlap in the distributions of floristic groups was evident in both geographical and multivariate niche space; however, discriminant analysis confirmed the separability of floristic groups based on bioclimatic variables. Higher performance of floristic group models compared with sage scrub as a whole suggests that groups have differing climate requirements for habitat suitability at regional scales and that breaking sage scrub into floristic groups improves the discrimination between climatically suitable and unsuitable habitat. Main conclusions The finding that presence‐only data and climatic variables can produce useful information on habitat suitability of California sage scrub species and floristic groups at a regional scale has important implications for ongoing efforts of habitat restoration for sage scrub. In addition, modelling at a group level provides important information about the differences in climatic niches within California sage scrub. Finally, the high performance of our floristic group models highlights the potential a community‐level modelling approach holds for investigating plant distribution patterns.     

Type and spatial structure of distribution data and the perceived determinants of geographical gradients in ecology: the species richness of African birds

Aim Studies exploring the determinants of geographical gradients in the occurrence of species or their traits obtain data by: (1) overlaying species range maps; (2) mapping survey‐based species counts; or (3) superimposing models of individual species’ distributions. These data types have different spatial characteristics. We investigated whether these differences influence conclusions regarding postulated determinants of species richness patterns. Location Our study examined terrestrial bird diversity patterns in 13 nations of southern and eastern Africa, spanning temperate to tropical climates. Methods Four species richness maps were compiled based on range maps, field‐derived bird atlas data, logistic and autologistic distribution models. Ordinary and spatial regression models served to examine how well each of five hypotheses predicted patterns in each map. These hypotheses propose productivity, temperature, the heat–water balance, habitat heterogeneity and climatic stability as the predominant determinants of species richness. Results The four richness maps portrayed broadly similar geographical patterns but, due to the nature of underlying data types, exhibited marked differences in spatial autocorrelation structure. These differences in spatial structure emerged as important in determining which hypothesis appeared most capable of explaining each map's patterns. This was true even when regressions accounted for spurious effects of spatial autocorrelation. Each richness map, therefore, identified a different hypothesis as the most likely cause of broad‐scale gradients in species diversity. Main conclusions Because the ‘true’ spatial structure of species richness patterns remains elusive, firm conclusions regarding their underlying environmental drivers remain difficult. More broadly, our findings suggest that care should be taken to interpret putative determinants of large‐scale ecological gradients in light of the type and spatial characteristics of the underlying data. Indeed, closer scrutiny of these underlying data — here the distributions of individual species — and their environmental associations may offer important insights into the ultimate causes of observed broad‐scale patterns.     

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.