Intense or spatially heterogeneous predation can select against prey dispersal

Dispersal theory generally predicts kin competition, inbreeding, and temporal variation in habitat quality should select for dispersal, whereas spatial variation in habitat quality should select against dispersal. The effect of predation on the evolution of dispersal is currently not well-known: because predation can be variable in both space and time, it is not clear whether or when predation will promote dispersal within prey. Moreover, the evolution of prey dispersal affects strongly the encounter rate of predator and prey individuals, which greatly determines the ecological dynamics, and in turn changes the selection pressures for prey dispersal, in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. When taken all together the effect of predation on prey dispersal is rather difficult to predict. We analyze a spatially explicit, individual-based predator-prey model and its mathematical approximation to investigate the evolution of prey dispersal. Competition and predation depend on local, rather than landscape-scale densities, and the spatial pattern of predation corresponds well to that of predators using restricted home ranges (e.g. central-place foragers). Analyses show the balance between the level of competition and predation pressure an individual is expected to experience determines whether prey should disperse or stay close to their parents and siblings, and more predation selects for less prey dispersal. Predators with smaller home ranges also select for less prey dispersal; more prey dispersal is favoured if predators have large home ranges, are very mobile, and/or are evenly distributed across the landscape.     

Constructing Rigorous and Broad Biosurveillance Networks for Detecting Emerging Zoonotic Outbreaks

Determining optimal surveillance networks for an emerging pathogen is difficult since it is not known beforehand what the characteristics of a pathogen will be or where it will emerge. The resources for surveillance of infectious diseases in animals and wildlife are often limited and mathematical modeling can play a supporting role in examining a wide range of scenarios of pathogen spread. We demonstrate how a hierarchy of mathematical and statistical tools can be used in surveillance planning help guide successful surveillance and mitigation policies for a wide range of zoonotic pathogens. The model forecasts can help clarify the complexities of potential scenarios, and optimize biosurveillance programs for rapidly detecting infectious diseases. Using the highly pathogenic zoonotic H5N1 avian influenza 2006-2007 epidemic in Nigeria as an example, we determined the risk for infection for localized areas in an outbreak and designed biosurveillance stations that are effective for different pathogen strains and a range of possible outbreak locations. We created a general multi-scale, multi-host stochastic SEIR epidemiological network model, with both short and long-range movement, to simulate the spread of an infectious disease through Nigerian human, poultry, backyard duck, and wild bird populations. We chose parameter ranges specific to avian influenza (but not to a particular strain) and used a Latin hypercube sample experimental design to investigate epidemic predictions in a thousand simulations. We ranked the risk of local regions by the number of times they became infected in the ensemble of simulations. These spatial statistics were then complied into a potential risk map of infection. Finally, we validated the results with a known outbreak, using spatial analysis of all the simulation runs to show the progression matched closely with the observed location of the farms infected in the 2006-2007 epidemic.     

Sleeping and Ranging Behavior of the Sambirano Mouse Lemur, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Microcebus sambiranensis</Emphasis>

Primates require secure sleeping sites for periods of rest, but despite their importance, the characteristics of desired sleeping sites are poorly known. Here we investigated the sleeping ecology of a radio-collared population of the Sambirano mouse lemur, Microcebus sambiranensis, during the nonreproductive season in the Anabohazo forest, northwestern Madagascar. We also investigated their ranging behavior and examined the spatial distribution of sleeping sites within the home ranges of the collared individuals. We took measurements of the sleeping tree’s physical characteristics and recorded the number of collared individuals using each sleeping site. We found that M. sambiranensis generally use foliage sleeping sites more frequently than tree holes and individuals slept more frequently in densely foliated trees than in sparsely foliated trees, often alone. We observed no significant differences in home range size or nightly travel distance between males and females; however, home ranges were smaller than those described for other mouse lemur species. Finally, we found that M. sambiranensis sleep peripherally and forage centrally within their home ranges, a behavior not previously described for mouse lemurs. Our results indicate profound differences in the social organization between M. sambiranensis and other mouse lemur species described in the literature, suggesting species-specificity in mouse lemur ecology. Understanding the sleeping ecology and ranging behavior of mouse lemurs is of great importance to their conservation, as these data facilitate the planning of long-term reforestation, habitat management, and population assessment.     

An agent-based model of sleeping sickness: simulation trials of a forest focus in southern Cameroon

An agent-based model (AMB) used to simulate the spread of Human African Trypanosomiasis is presented together with the results of simulations of a focus of the disease. This model is a completely spatialized approach taking into account a series of often overlooked parameters such as human behaviour (activity-related movements), the density and mobility of the disease vectors--tsetse flies (Glossina spp.)--and the influence of other tsetse feeding hosts (livestock and wild animal populations). The agents that represent humans and tsetse flies move in a spatially structured environment managed by specialized location agents. Existing compartmental mathematical models governed by differential equations fail to incorporate the spatial dimension of the disease transmission. Furthermore, on a small scale, transmission is unrealistically represented by entities less than one. This ABM was tested with data from one village of the Bipindi sleeping sickness focus (southern Cameroon) and with obtained realistic simulations of stable transmission involving an animal reservoir. In varying different spatial configurations, we observe that the stability of spread is linked to the spatial complexity (number of heterogeneous locations). The prevalence is very sensitive to the human densities and to the number of tsetse flies initially infected in a given location. A relatively low and durable prevalence is obtained with shortening the phase I. In addition, we discuss some upgrading possibilities, in particular the linkage to a Geographical Information System (GIS). The agent-based approach offers new ways to understanding the spread of the disease and a tool to evaluate risk and test control strategies.     

The effects of spatial movement and group interactions on disease dynamics of social animals

The effects of spatial movements of infected and susceptible individuals on disease dynamics is not well understood. Empirical studies on the spatial spread of disease and behaviour of infected individuals are few and theoretical studies may be useful to explore different scenarios. Hence due to lack of detail in empirical studies, theoretical models have become necessary tools in investigating the disease influence in host-pathogen systems. In this paper we developed and analysed a spatially explicit model of two interacting social groups of animals of the same species. We investigated how the movement scenarios of susceptible and infected individuals together with the between-group contact parameter affect the survival rate of susceptible individuals in each group. This work can easily be applied to various host-pathogen systems. We define bounds on the number of susceptibles which avoid infection once the disease has died out as a function of the initial conditions and other model parameters. For example, once disease has passed through the populations, a larger diffusion coefficient for each group can result in higher population levels when there is no between-group interaction but in lower levels when there is between-group interaction. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate these bounds and behaviours and to describe the different outcomes in ecological terms.     

Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China

A dense population, global connectivity and frequent human–animal interaction give southern China an important role in the spread and emergence of infectious disease. However, patterns of person-to-person contact relevant to the spread of directly transmitted infections such as influenza remain poorly quantified in the region. We conducted a household-based survey of travel and contact patterns among urban and rural populations of Guangdong, China. We measured the character and distance from home of social encounters made by 1821 individuals. Most individuals reported 5–10 h of contact with around 10 individuals each day; however, both distributions have long tails. The distribution of distance from home at which contacts were made is similar: most were within a kilometre of the participant''s home, while some occurred further than 500 km away. Compared with younger individuals, older individuals made fewer contacts which tended to be closer to home. There was strong assortativity in age-based contact rates. We found no difference between the total number or duration of contacts between urban and rural participants, but urban participants tended to make contacts closer to home. These results can improve mathematical models of infectious disease emergence, spread and control in southern China and throughout the region.     

Acceleration Data Reveal Highly Individually Structured Energetic Landscapes in Free-Ranging Fishers (Pekania pennanti)

Investigating animal energy expenditure across space and time may provide more detailed insight into how animals interact with their environment. This insight should improve our understanding of how changes in the environment affect animal energy budgets and is particularly relevant for animals living near or within human altered environments where habitat change can occur rapidly. We modeled fisher (Pekania pennanti) energy expenditure within their home ranges and investigated the potential environmental and spatial drivers of the predicted spatial patterns. As a proxy for energy expenditure we used overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) that we quantified from tri-axial accelerometer data during the active phases of 12 individuals. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the spatial distribution of ODBA by associating the acceleration data to the animals'' GPS-recorded locations. We related the spatial patterns of ODBA to the utilization distributions and habitat suitability estimates across individuals. The ODBA of fishers appears highly structured in space and was related to individual utilization distribution and habitat suitability estimates. However, we were not able to predict ODBA using the environmental data we selected. Our results suggest an unexpected complexity in the space use of animals that was only captured partially by re-location data-based concepts of home range and habitat suitability. We suggest future studies recognize the limits of ODBA that arise from the fact that acceleration is often collected at much finer spatio-temporal scales than the environmental data and that ODBA lacks a behavioral correspondence. Overcoming these limits would improve the interpretation of energy expenditure in relation to the environment.     

SCALE-DEPENDENT SUMMER RESOURCE SELECTION BY REINTRODUCED ELK IN WISCONSIN,USA

Abstract: Identifying how habitat use is influenced by environmental heterogeneity at different scales is central to understanding ungulate population dynamics on complex landscapes. We used resource selection functions (RSF) to study summer habitat use in a reintroduced and expanding elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) population in the Chequamegon National Forest, Wisconsin, USA. Factors were examined that influenced where elk established home ranges and that influenced habitat use within established home ranges. We also determined grain sizes over which elk responded to environmental heterogeneity and the number of categories of habitat selection from low to high that the elk distinguished. At a large spatial extent, elk home-range establishment was largely explained by the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) territories. Forage abundance was also influential but was relatively more important at a small spatial extent when elk moved within established home ranges. Areas near roads were avoided when establishing a home-range, but areas near roads were selected for use within the established home range. Elk distinguished among 4 different categories of habitat selection when establishing and moving within home ranges. Spatial and temporal cross validation demonstrated that to improve the predictive strength of habitat models in areas of low inter-annual variability in the environment, it is better to follow more individuals across diverse environmental conditions than to follow the same individuals over a longer time period. Last, our results show that the effects of environmental variables on habitat use were scale-dependent and reemphasize the necessity of analyzing habitat use at multiple scales that are fit to address specific research questions.     

Moment Equations and Dynamics of a Household SIS Epidemiological Model

An SIS epidemiological model of individuals partitioned into households is studied, where infections take place either within or between households, the latter generally happening much less frequently. The model is explored using stochastic spatial simulations, as well as mathematical models which consist of an infinite system of ordinary differential equations for the moments of the distribution describing the proportions of individuals who are infectious among households. Various moment-closure approximations are used to truncate the system of ODEs to finite systems of equations. These approximations can sometimes lead to a system of ill-behaved ODEs which predict moments which become negative or unbounded. A reparametrization of the ODEs is then developed, which forces all moments to satisfy necessary constraints.Changing the proportion of contacts within and between households does not change the endemic equilibrium, but does affect the amount of time it takes to approach the fixed point; increasing the proportion of contacts within households slows the spread of the infection toward endemic equilibrium. The system of moment equations does describe this phenomenon, although less accurately in the limit as the proportion of between-household contacts approaches zero. The results indicate that although controlling the movement of individuals does not affect the long-term frequency of an infection with SIS dynamics, it can have a large effect on the time-scale of the dynamics, which may provide an opportunity for other controls such as immunizations to be applied.     

Site fidelity and homing in juvenile rabbitfishes (Siganidae)

The behaviour of juvenile fishes is critical in establishing the link between recruitment and subsequent adult populations. If juvenile fishes move, they can respond to variation in local conditions before adult home ranges are established. Alternatively, if juveniles establish fixed home ranges at settlement, their decisions may determine future population densities at small spatial scales. Field observations and translocations revealed that juvenile rabbitfishes (Siganus corallinus and S. doliatus) have small home ranges and strong homing abilities (covering 6 m in 1 h or 36 m within 24 h). Only four of 22 individuals failed to return; all were transferred up-current, suggesting that olfaction is important in homing. Small home ranges and strong homing tendencies in juvenile herbivores suggest that decisions made by recruits will impact the spatial extent of both adult fishes and the functional roles they play within ecosystems.     

Social Organization of Lepilemur ruficaudatus

We characterize the spatial organization of red-tailed sportive lemurs (Lepilemur ruficaudatus) as a key aspect of their social organization and social system. Sportive lemurs are small (<1000 g), nocturnal and folivorous primates endemic to Madagascar. We studied a population of 57 individually-marked individuals in Kirindy Forest, western Madagascar, between 1995 and 2001. We radio-tracked 20 males and 26 females of the marked population to obtain detailed information on the size and location of their home ranges. Census data and morphometric measurements provided complementary data sets. Males and females occupied small (<1 ha) home-ranges. Long-term records from 9 individuals revealed home-range stability over several years. In 4 cases home ranges overlapped extensively with that of one member of the opposite sex; in 2 cases, a spatial association of 1 male and 2 females occurred. However, home ranges overlapped very little with neighboring individuals of both sexes. During the study period, spatially associated individuals used on average 5.6 sleeping trees within 117 days, but they spent on average only about every fourth night together. The data suggest that home ranges in red-tailed sportive lemurs are exclusively used by pairs or trios and that the modal social organization of red-tailed sportive lemurs is pair-living.     

Population structure and the spread of disease

A common assumption of many mathematical models for the spread of disease is that there is random mixing among all individuals in the host population. This paper analyzes and develops a model for the spread of disease in a population consisting of several interacting subpopulations. The model considers 2 different types of interactions between individuals: 1) within a subpopulation because of geographic proximity, and 2) of the same or different subpopulations because of attendance at common social functions. A stability analysis performed on the equilibria of the model shows 2 stable states: 1) a population composed solely of susceptible individuals with no disease present, and 2) an interior point where there are susceptible, infective, and recovered individuals present at all times. The analysis shows that the threshold for disease maintenance is more easily exceed in centers that are members of a small local cluster than in randomly mixing centers, but that the spread of the disease throughout the population occurs more rapidly when the initial case attends a randomly mixing center. The conditions under which a disease will become established are dependent upon the transmission rate for the disease, the birth and death rate in each neighborhood, the recovery rate from the disease in each neighborhood, and the movement patterns of the individuals in the population. The study of the spread of disease in a population by means of mathematical models provides a valuable addition to the statistical data analyzed by epidemiologists. This model is relevant any time there is a division of the population into several interacting groups in which the probability of disease spread is a function both of neighborhood contact because of geographic proximity and of social interactions between groups.     

Territorial behavior of the plethodontid salamander Plethodon kentucki: influence of habitat structure and population density

To investigate the possible influence of variation in ecological and demographic factors on the spatial organization of the terrestrial plethodontid salamander Plethodon kentucki, I conducted a 3-year capture-recapture study and determined home-range characteristics and spatial relationships of individuals at two field sites that differed in predominant cover type and population density. Home ranges of adults were fixed and the home ranges of same-sex adult neighbors were mostly exclusive. The spatial arrangement of adult home ranges exhibited overall regularity or regularity within aggregations, whereas the distribution of juvenile home ranges was usually random. Analysis of nearest-neighbor sex indicated a positive intersexual association of adult home ranges. Removal studies provided evidence for defense of adult home ranges only at the high-density site. The distribution of home ranges was influenced by the presence of cover objects, but there was no significant relationship between adult body size and percent of home-range area with cover. Males overlapped the home ranges of gravid females significantly more often than those of non-gravid females, indicating that the distribution of gravid females had a strong influence on the distribution of male home ranges. In laboratory tests, increased male-male aggression during the breeding season suggests that males may compete for access to mates. At the high-density site, larger males may have benefited by having greater reproductive success than smaller males because they were more dominant and their home ranges overlapped a greater number of gravid-female home ranges. My results indicate that habitat structure and population density may influence the spatial organization and mating system of P. kentucki. Received: 26 May 1997 / Accepted: 9 October 1997     

Accuracy of resource selection functions across spatial scales

Resource selection functions (RSFs) can be used to map suitable habitat of a species based on predicted probability of use. The spatial scale may affect accuracy of such predictions. To provide guidance as to which spatial extent or grain is appropriate and most accurate for animals, we used the concept of hierarchical selection orders to dictate extent and grain. We conducted a meta-analysis from 123 RSF studies of 886 species to identify differences in prediction success that might be expected for five selection orders. Many studies do not constrain spatial extent to the grain of the next broader selection order in the hierarchy, mixing scaling effects. Thus, we also compared accuracy of single- vs. multiple-grain RSFs developed at the unconstrained extent of an entire study area. Results suggested that the geographical range of a species was the easiest to predict of the selection orders. At smaller scales within the geographical range, use of a site was easier to predict when environmental variables were measured at a grain equivalent to the home-range size or a microhabitat feature required for reproduction or resting. Selection of patches within home ranges and locations of populations was often more difficult to predict. Multiple-grain RSFs were more predictive than single-grain RSFs when the entire study area was considered available. Models with variables measured at both small and large (> 100 ha) grains were usually most predictive, even for many species with small home ranges. Multiple-grain models may be particularly important for species with moderate dispersal abilities in habitat fragments surrounded by an unsuitable matrix. We recommend studies should no longer address only one grain to map animal species distributions.     

Size but not relatedness drives the spatial distribution of males within an urban population of Anolis carolinensis lizards

The way that individuals are spatially organized in their environment is a fundamental population characteristic affecting social structure, mating system, and reproductive ecology. However, for many small or cryptic species, the factors driving the spatial distribution of individuals within a population are poorly understood and difficult to quantify. We combined microsatellite data, remote sensing, and mark–recapture techniques to test the relative importance of body size and relatedness in determining the spatial distribution of male Anolis carolinensis individuals within a focal population over a five‐year period. We found that males maintain smaller home ranges than females. We found no relationship between male body size and home range size, nor any substantial impact of relatedness on the geographic proximity. Instead, the main driver of male spatial distribution in this population was differences in body size. We also found no evidence for offspring inheritance of their parent''s territories. Males were never sampled within their father''s territory providing strong support for male‐biased dispersal. This study introduces a novel approach by combining standard mark release capture data with measures of pairwise relatedness, body size, and GPS locations to better understand the factors that drive the spatial distribution of individuals within a population.     

Behavioral states help translate dispersal movements into spatial distribution patterns of floaters

Within the field of spatial ecology, it is important to study animal movements in order to better understand population dynamics. Dispersal is a nonlinear process through which different behavioral mechanisms could affect movement patterns. One of the most common approaches to analyzing the trajectories of organisms within patches is to use random-walk models to describe movement features. These models express individual movements within a specific area in terms of random-walk parameters in an effort to relate movement patterns to the distributions of organisms in space. However, only using the movement trajectories of individuals to predict the spatial spread of animal populations may not fit the complex distribution of individuals across heterogeneous environments. When we empirically tested the results from a random-walk model (a residence index) used to predict the spatial equilibrium distribution of individuals, we found that the index severely underestimated the spatial spread of dispersing individuals. We believe this is because random-walk models only account for the effects of environmental conditions on individual movements, completely overlooking the crucial influence of behavior changes over time. In the future, both aspects should be accounted for when predicting general rules of (meta)population abundance, distribution, and dynamics from patterns of animal movements.     

Movements of white-tailed deer in riparian habitat: Implications for infectious diseases

Movements of male white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are of great concern with respect to spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) across landscapes because most yearlings males disperse and adult males have higher prevalence of CWD than do females and younger deer. We radiocollared and monitored 85 male white-tailed deer in the middle Missouri River Valley of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, USA from 2004 to 2008. Average size (±SE) of fixed-kernel annual home ranges (95%) and core areas (50%) for resident deer were 449 (±32) ha and 99 (±7) ha, respectively. Resident deer exhibited a high-degree of fidelity to their home ranges. Mean overlap between consecutive annual home ranges and core areas was 81% and 74%, respectively. Average dispersal distance was 17.7 ± 4.5 km (range = 3–121 km) for 22 radio-marked and 6 ear-tagged yearlings. Mean spring dispersal distance (25 km) was 150% greater than fall (10 km). Dispersal direction from Desoto National Wildlife Refuge (DNWR) was bimodal on a northwest to southeast axis that followed the Missouri River corridor. Of 22 yearlings that dispersed, 18 (82%) established adult home ranges within the river valley. Dispersal movements of yearling males represent the greatest risk for rapid spread of diseases from infected source populations. Disease management efforts in riparian habitats should target male fawns and yearling males for removal in areas within or immediately adjacent to river corridors. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Influence of landscape and social interactions on transmission of disease in a social cervid

The mechanisms of pathogen transmission are often social behaviours. These occur at local scales and are affected by landscape-scale population structure. Host populations frequently exist in patchy and isolated environments that create a continuum of genetic and social familiarity. Such variability has an important multispatial effect on pathogen spread. We assessed elk dispersal (i.e. likelihood of interdeme pathogen transmission) through spatially explicit genetic analyses. At a landscape scale, the elk population was composed of one cluster within a southeast-to-northwest cline spanning three spatially discrete subpopulations of elk across two protected areas in Manitoba (Canada). Genetic data are consistent with spatial variability in apparent prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in elk. Given the existing population structure, between-subpopulation spread of disease because of elk dispersal is unlikely. Furthermore, to better understand the risk of spread and distribution of the TB, we used a combination of close-contact logging biotelemetry and genetic data, which highlights how social intercourse may affect pathogen transmission. Our results indicate that close-contact interaction rate and duration did not covary with genetic relatedness. Thus, direct elk-to-elk transmission of disease is unlikely to be constrained to related individuals. That social intercourse in elk is not limited to familial groups provides some evidence pathogen transmission may be density-dependent. We show that the combination of landscape-scale genetics, relatedness and local-scale social behaviours is a promising approach to understand and predict landscape-level pathogen transmission within our system and within all social ungulate systems affected by transmissible diseases.     

Home range size scales to habitat amount and increasing fragmentation in a mobile woodland specialist

相似文献