Sixty years of environmental change in the world's largest freshwater lake – Lake Baikal, Siberia

High-resolution data collected over the past 60 years by a single family of Siberian scientists on Lake Baikal reveal significant warming of surface waters and long-term changes in the basal food web of the world's largest, most ancient lake. Attaining depths over 1.6 km, Lake Baikal is the deepest and most voluminous of the world's great lakes. Increases in average water temperature (1.21 °C since 1946), chlorophyll a (300% since 1979), and an influential group of zooplankton grazers (335% increase in cladocerans since 1946) may have important implications for nutrient cycling and food web dynamics. Results from multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling suggest that cladocerans increased strongly in response to temperature but not to algal biomass, and cladocerans depressed some algal resources without observable fertilization effects. Changes in Lake Baikal are particularly significant as an integrated signal of long-term regional warming, because this lake is expected to be among those most resistant to climate change due to its tremendous volume. These findings highlight the importance of accessible, long-term monitoring data for understanding ecosystem response to large-scale stressors such as climate change.     

Thermal stratification, nutrient dynamics, and phytoplankton productivity during the onset of spring phytoplankton growth in Lake Baikal, Russia

Lake Baikal, Russian Siberia, was sampled in July 1990 during the period of spring mixing and initiation of thermal stratification. Vertical profiles of temperature, dissolved nutrients (nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorus), phytoplankton biomass, and primary productivity were determined in an eleven-station transect encompassing the entire 636 km length of the lake. Pronounced horizontal variability in hydrodynamic conditions was observed, with the southern region of the lake being strongly thermally stratified while the middle and north basins were largely isothermal through July. The extent of depletion of surface water nutrients, and the magnitude of phytoplankton biomass and productivity, were found to be strongly correlated with the degree of thermal stratification. Horizontal differences likely reflected the contribution of two important factors: variation in the timing of ice-out in different parts of the lake (driving large-scale patterns of thermal stratification and other limnological properties) and localized effects of river inflows that may contribute to the preliminary stabilization of the water column in the face of intense turbulent spring mixing (driving meso-scale patterns). Examination of the relationships between surface water inorganic N and P depletion suggested that during the spring and early summer, phytoplankton growth in unstratified portions of the lake was largely unconstrained by nutrient supplies. As summer progressed, the importance of co-limitation by both N and P became more apparent. Uptake and regeneration rates, measured directly using the stable isotope ¹⁵N, revealed that phytoplankton in stratified portions of the lake relied primarily on NH₄ as their N source. Rates of NH₄ regeneration were in approximate equilibrium with uptake; both processes were dominated by organisms <2 µm. This pattern is similar to that observed for oligotrophic marine systems. Our study underscores the importance of hydrodynamic conditions in influencing patterns of biological productivity and nutrient dynamics that occur in Lake Baikal during its brief growing season.     

Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processes

Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time‐series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long‐term climate warming and variability because of large‐scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear‐water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast.     

Impact of ENSO on East African ecosystems: a multivariate analysis based on climate and remote sensing data

1 The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of inter‐annual variations in climate and ecosystem productivity in tropical regions. Most previous studies have analysed ENSO‐induced changes in climate based on a single variable, such as rainfall. Also, it is generally assumed that the ENSO impact in East Africa is geographically uniform. 2 The objective of this study is to improve understanding of the impact of ENSO on East African ecosystems, by measuring teleconnections between an ENSO index and a number of ecosystem variables in a spatially explicit way and for different time lags. We analysed the spatial patterns of teleconnections in the region by combining time series of climate variables measured for meteorological stations with time series of a vegetation index and surface temperature data measured by remote sensing. 3 Our results confirm the ENSO impact on the climatic and ecological variability in East Africa. However, the pattern of teleconnections is much more complex than generally assumed, both in terms of spatial distribution and impact on different ecosystem variables. Not all climate and land surface variables are teleconnected to ENSO in the same way, which leads to a complex impact of ENSO on the ecosystem. Moreover, the ENSO impact is highly differentiated in space, as the direction, magnitude and timing of this impact are controlled by the local climate system, the presence of large lakes, proximity to the coast and, possibly, local topography and land cover.     

Marine lake ecosystem dynamics illustrate ENSO variation in the tropical western Pacific

Understanding El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its biological consequences is hindered by a lack of high-resolution, long-term data from the tropical western Pacific. We describe a preliminary, 6 year dataset that shows tightly coupled ENSO-related bio-physical dynamics in a seawater lake in Palau, Micronesia. The lake is more strongly stratified during La Ni?a than El Ni?o conditions, temperature anomalies in the lake co-vary strongly with the Ni?o 3.4 climate index, and the abundance of the dominant member of the pelagic community, an endemic subspecies of zooxanthellate jellyfish, is temperature associated. These results have broad relevance because the lake: (i) illustrates an ENSO signal that is partly obscured in surrounding semi-enclosed lagoon waters and, therefore, (ii) may provide a model system for studying the effects of climate change on community evolution and cnidarian-zooxanthellae symbioses, which (iii) should be traceable throughout the Holocene because the lake harbours a high quality sediment record; the sediment record should (iv) provide a sensitive and regionally unique record of Holocene climate relevant to predicting ENSO responses to future global climate change and, finally, (v) seawater lake ecosystems elsewhere in the Pacific may hold similar potential for past, present, and predictive measurements of climate variation and ecosystem response.     

Assessing the vulnerability of endemic diatom species in Lake Baikal to predicted future climate change: a multivariate approach

Diatoms in Lake Baikal exhibit significant spatial variation, related to prevailing climate, lake morphology and fluvial input into the lake. Here we have assessed the threats to endemic planktonic diatom species (through the development of empirical models), which form a major component of primary production within the lake. Multivariate techniques employed include redundancy analysis (RDA) and Huisman–Olff–Fresco (HOF) models. Our analyses suggest that eight environmental variables were significant in explaining diatom distribution across the lake, and in order of importance these are snow thickness on the ice, water depth, duration of days with white ice, suspended matter in the lake, days of total ice duration, temperature of the water surface in July, concentration of zooplankton and suspended organic matter. Impacts on dominant phytoplankton diatom species are highlighted using t‐value biplots. Predictions of future climate change on Lake Baikal are likely to result in shorter periods of ice cover, decreased snow cover across the lake in spring, increased fluvial input into the lake, and an increase in the intensification of surface water stratification during summer months. All these factors are likely to impact negatively on the slow‐growing, cold‐water endemics such as Aulacoseira baicalensis and Cyclotella minuta, which currently dominate diatom assemblages. Instead, taxa that are only intermittently abundant, at present, in offshore areas (e.g. Stephanodiscus meyerii) are likely to become more frequent. However, given the climatic gradient across the lake, the timing and extent of changes in community structure are likely to vary. Moreover, palaeolimnological records show that Lake Baikal diatom assemblages have been dynamic throughout the Holocene, with both endemic and cosmopolitan species exhibiting periods of dominance. Effects of climate change on the entire lake ecosystem may yet be profound as the structure of the pelagic food web may change from one based on endemic diatom taxa to one dominated by nondiatom picoplankton, and as limnological functioning (e.g. stratification and mixing) affects deepwater oxygen availability, nutrient cycling and trophic linkages.     

Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds

Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate‐resolution imaging spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape‐induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape‐induced phenological patterns are easily observed over wide areas and may be used as a unique diagnostic for sources of ecosystem vulnerability and sensitivity to hydroclimate change.     

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Ni?o in Panamá

Background

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.

Methodology and Findings

We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.

Conclusion

Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.     

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire–climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire–climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.     

Simulation of Lake Victoria Circulation Patterns Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

Lake Victoria provides important ecosystem services including transport, water for domestic and industrial uses and fisheries to about 33 million inhabitants in three East African countries. The lake plays an important role in modulating regional climate. Its thermodynamics and hydrodynamics are also influenced by prevailing climatic and weather conditions on diel, seasonal and annual scales. However, information on water temperature and circulation in the lake is limited in space and time. We use a Regional Oceanographic Model System (ROMS) to simulate these processes from 1^st January 2000 to 31^st December 2014. The model is based on real bathymetry, river runoff and atmospheric forcing data using the bulk flux algorithm. Simulations show that the water column exhibits annual cycles of thermo-stratification (September–May) and mixing (June–August). Surface water currents take different patterns ranging from a lake-wide northward flow to gyres that vary in size and number. An under flow exists that leads to the formation of upwelling and downwelling regions. Current velocities are highest at the center of the lake and on the western inshore waters indicating enhanced water circulation in those areas. However, there is little exchange of water between the major gulfs (especially Nyanza) and the open lake, a factor that could be responsible for the different water quality reported in those regions. Findings of the present study enhance understanding of the physical processes (temperature and currents) that have an effect on diel, seasonal, and annual variations in stratification, vertical mixing, inshore—offshore exchanges and fluxes of nutrients that ultimately influence the biotic distribution and trophic structure. For instance information on areas/timing of upwelling and vertical mixing obtained from this study will help predict locations/seasons of high primary production and ultimately fisheries productivity in Lake Victoria.     

Multiyear Climate Variability and Dengue—El Ni?o Southern Oscillation,Weather, and Dengue Incidence in Puerto Rico,Mexico, and Thailand: A Longitudinal Data Analysis

Background

The mosquito-borne dengue viruses are a major public health problem throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Changes in temperature and precipitation have well-defined roles in the transmission cycle and may thus play a role in changing incidence levels. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a multiyear climate driver of local temperature and precipitation worldwide. Previous studies have reported varying degrees of association between ENSO and dengue incidence.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed the relationship between ENSO, local weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand using wavelet analysis to identify time- and frequency-specific association. In Puerto Rico, ENSO was transiently associated with temperature and dengue incidence on multiyear scales. However, only local precipitation and not temperature was associated with dengue on multiyear scales. In Thailand, ENSO was associated with both temperature and precipitation. Although precipitation was associated with dengue incidence, the association was nonstationary and likely spurious. In Mexico, no association between any of the variables was observed on the multiyear scale.

Conclusions

The evidence for a relationship between ENSO, climate, and dengue incidence presented here is weak. While multiyear climate variability may play a role in endemic interannual dengue dynamics, we did not find evidence of a strong, consistent relationship in any of the study areas. The role of ENSO may be obscured by local climate heterogeneity, insufficient data, randomly coincident outbreaks, and other, potentially stronger, intrinsic factors regulating transmission dynamics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Meromixis and Seasonal Dynamics of Vertical Structure of Lake Uchum (South Siberia)

The seasonal dynamics of the vertical structure of small saline Lake Uchum, located in the steppe arid zone of the south of Siberia (Krasnoyarsk krai), has been studied in detail for the first time. This lake is a meromictic water body. We have revealed a heterogeneous vertical distribution of plankton organisms and a dense population of purple sulfuric bacteria in the redox zone. The taxonomic composition and seasonal dynamics of phyto- and zooplankton are described. Presumably, the meromixis of Lake Uchum is due to the inflow of fresh water to the surface of the saline water body during the rise of its level in the early 20th century, similarly to lakes Shira and Shunet located nearby. The processes of salt displacement into the solution during the formation of ice, as well as the precipitation of salts in the winter, also contribute to the maintenance of permanent stratification. The information on the current state of the lake can be useful for reconstructing the climate by bottom sediments, as well as for creating a model of water quality and investigating the therapeutic properties of lake mud.     

Large-Scale Temperature Patterns in Past Centuries: Implications for North American Climate Change

Recent climate reconstructions are analyzed specifically for insights into those patterns of climate variability in past centuries with greatest impact on the North American region. Regional variability, largely associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and multidecadal patterns of natural variability, are found to mask the emergence of an anthropogenic temperature signal in North America. Substantial recent temperature anomalies may however indicate a possible recent emergence of this signal in the region. Multidecadal North Atlantic variability is likely to positively reinforce any anthropogenic warming over substantial parts of North America in coming decades. The recent magnitudes of El Nino events appear to be unprecedented over the past several centuries. These recent changes, if anthropogenic in nature, may outweigh the projection of larger-scale climate change patterns onto the region in a climate change scenario. The implications of such changes for North America, however, are not yet clear. These observations suggest caution in assessing regional climate change scenarios in North America without a detailed consideration of possible anthropogenic changes in climate patterns influencing the region.     

Influences of ENSO and PDO phenomena on the local climate variability can drive extreme temperature and depth conditions in a Pampean shallow lake affecting fish communities

The aim of this study was to characterize occurrence of extreme temperature and depth conditions affecting fish community in a shallow lake as result of local climate variability, in turn influenced by the ENSO and PDO phenomena. Extreme depth and water temperature events (modeled from local weather conditions) were characterized from 1966 to 2012 to estimate changes in Chascomús lake fish communities. The ENSO and PDO influences on the occurrence probability of these ecosystem changes were investigated. Four significant changes in Chascomús Lake fish assemblage were identified during period assessed, as response to extreme temperature and depth events. Extreme high depth conditions would have changed fish community during 1987 and 2002, leading to a configuration characterized by the absence of the most emblematic fish species in Chascomús Lake, the pejerrey (Odontesthes bonariensis). On the other hand, extreme low water temperatures would have promoted a fish community characterized by the dominance of this last species during 1966–1986, 1997–2001 and 2008–2013 periods. Furthermore, extreme shortening in pejerrey spawning season was significantly related with decrease of its relative abundance. The occurrence probability of the extreme physical conditions modifying Chascomús Lake fish communities was significantly explained by ENSO (by depth influences) and by PDO (by water temperature influences). Thus, this study showed strong correlations between the ENSO and PDO influences and the occurrence probability of the extreme physical conditions changing fish community in Chascomús Lake.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

ENSO and NAO affect long‐term leaf litter dynamics and stoichiometry of Scots pine and European beech mixedwoods

Litterfall dynamics (production, seasonality and nutrient composition) are key factors influencing nutrient cycling. Leaf litter characteristics are modified by species composition, site conditions and water availability. However, significant evidence on how large‐scale, global circulation patterns affect ecophysiological processes at tree and ecosystem level remains scarce due to the difficulty in separating the combined influence of different factors on local climate and tree phenology. To fill this gap, we studied links between leaf litter dynamics with climate and other forest processes, such as tree‐ring width (TRW) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) in two mixtures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the south‐western Pyrenees. Temporal series (18 years) of litterfall production and elemental chemical composition were decomposed following the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and relationships with local climate, large‐scale climatic indices, TRW and Scots pine's iWUE were assessed. Temporal trends in N:P ratios indicated increasing P limitation of soil microbes, thus affecting nutrient availability, as the ecological succession from a pine‐dominated to a beech‐dominated forest took place. A significant influence of large‐scale patterns on tree‐level ecophysiology was explained through the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability. Positive NAO and negative ENSO were related to dry conditions and, consequently, to early needle shedding and increased N:P ratio of both species. Autumn storm activity appears to be related to premature leaf abscission of European beech. Significant cascading effects from large‐scale patterns on local weather influenced pine TRW and iWUE. These variables also responded to leaf stoichiometry fallen 3 years prior to tree‐ring formation. Our results provide evidence of the cascading effect that variability in global climate circulation patterns can have on ecophysiological processes and stand dynamics in mixed forests.     

Climatic control of upwelling variability along the western North-American coast

The high biological production of the California Current System (CCS) results from the seasonal development of equatorward alongshore winds that drive coastal upwelling. While several climatic fluctuation patterns influence the dynamics and biological productivity of the CCS, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the mechanisms of interaction between climatic oscillations and the CCS upwelling dynamics have remained obscure. Here, we use Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) to reveal, for the first time, low-frequency concordance between the time series of climatic indices and upwelling intensity along the coast of western North America. Based on energy distributions in annual, semiannual and low-frequency signals, we can divide the coast into three distinct regions. While the annual upwelling signal dominates the energy spectrum elsewhere, low-frequency variability is maximal in the regions south of 33°N. Non-structured variability associated with storms and turbulent mixing is enhanced at northerly locations. We found that the low-frequency signal is significantly correlated with different climatic indices such as PDO, NPGO and ENSO with the correlation patterns being latitude-dependent. We also analyzed the correlations between this upwelling variability and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the North Pacific to visualize and interpret the large-scale teleconnection dynamics in the atmosphere that drive the low-frequency coastal winds. These results provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms connecting climatic patterns with upwelling dynamics, which could enhance our prediction and forecast capabilities of the effects of future oceanographic and climatic variability in the CCS.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of zooplankton diversity in the Poyang Lake Basin using DNA metabarcoding

Freshwater ecosystems face multiple threats to their stability globally. Poyang Lake is the largest lake in China, but its habitat has been seriously degraded because of human activities and natural factors (e.g. climate change), resulting in a decline in freshwater biodiversity. Zooplankton are useful indicators of environmental stressors because they are sensitive to external perturbations. DNA metabarcoding is an approach that has gained significant traction by aiding ecosystem conservation and management. Here, the seasonal and spatial variability in the zooplankton diversity were analyzed in the Poyang Lake Basin using DNA metabarcoding. The results showed that the community structure of zooplankton exhibited significant seasonal and spatial variability using DNA metabarcoding, where the community structure was correlated with turbidity, water temperature, pH, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll‐a. These results indicated habitat variations affected by human activities and seasonal change could be the main driving factors for the variations of zooplankton community. This study also provides an important reference for the management of aquatic ecosystem health and conservation of aquatic biodiversity.     

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.     

湖泊水位变动对水生植被的影响机理及其调控方法

水位的高低及其变动范围、频率、发生的时间、持续的时长和规律性等是影响湖泊水生植被的核心因子.水位变动有短期、年内季节性和年际变动3种,对湖泊水生植被有不同的影响机理.水位短期变动通过对水体中的悬浮物、透明度、光衰减系数等的影响而对水生植被产生作用;周期性的年内季节性和年际水位变动可对水生植被的生态适宜性产生影响,并进而改变其时空分布;长期的高水位和低水位以及非周期性的水位季节变动会破坏水生植被长期以来对水位周期性变化所产生的适应性,从而影响了植被的正常生长、繁衍和演替.植被的极端深度和物种多样性是水位调控的核心表征指标,可通过经验数据分析法、生态模型法和参照法等方法来确定湖泊的适宜水位变动范围和时间.研究对象选择、研究方法、管理中的应用以及重要环境变化所产生的影响等是今后相关研究的核心问题.