Adaptation to an extraordinary environment by evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation

Adaptation to a sudden extreme change in environment, beyond the usual range of background environmental fluctuations, is analysed using a quantitative genetic model of phenotypic plasticity. Generations are discrete, with time lag τ between a critical period for environmental influence on individual development and natural selection on adult phenotypes. The optimum phenotype, and genotypic norms of reaction, are linear functions of the environment. Reaction norm elevation and slope (plasticity) vary among genotypes. Initially, in the average background environment, the character is canalized with minimum genetic and phenotypic variance, and no correlation between reaction norm elevation and slope. The optimal plasticity is proportional to the predictability of environmental fluctuations over time lag τ. During the first generation in the new environment the mean fitness suddenly drops and the mean phenotype jumps towards the new optimum phenotype by plasticity. Subsequent adaptation occurs in two phases. Rapid evolution of increased plasticity allows the mean phenotype to closely approach the new optimum. The new phenotype then undergoes slow genetic assimilation, with reduction in plasticity compensated by genetic evolution of reaction norm elevation in the original environment.     

MEASURING SELECTION ON REACTION NORMS: AN EXPLORATION OF THE EUROSTA-SOLIDAGO SYSTEM

The sensitivity of genotypic expression to the environment can be depicted as the reaction norm, which is defined as the array of phenotypes produced by a single genotype over a range of environments. We studied selection on reaction norms of the gall-inducing insect Eurosta solidaginis (Diptera; Tephritidae), which attacks tall goldenrod Solidago altissima (Compositae). Gall size was treated as a component of insect phenotype and attributes of the host plant as environmental influences on gall development. Genetic differences in the response of gall size to plant lag time (the number of days before a plant responds to the gall maker) were examined. Reaction norms for full-sib families of flies were quantified as linear functions; the elevation of the function denoted gall size produced by the family averaged across all plants, and the function's slope denoted family sensitivity to lag time. Expected fitness of each family was regressed over reaction norm elevation and slope to yield selection gradients on these reaction norm parameters. Directional selection on gall size averaged across environments is four times stronger than selection on sensitivity. Yet, genetic variation for sensitivity contributes more than twice as much to gall phenotypic variance as family mean gall size. Our results suggest that selection on environmental sensitivity will be weak for populations restricted to a narrow segment of an environmental gradient, but strong for broadly distributed species.     

When three traits make a line: evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation through linear reaction norms in stochastic environments

Genetic assimilation emerges from selection on phenotypic plasticity. Yet, commonly used quantitative genetics models of linear reaction norms considering intercept and slope as traits do not mimic the full process of genetic assimilation. We argue that intercept–slope reaction norm models are insufficient representations of genetic effects on linear reaction norms and that considering reaction norm intercept as a trait is unfortunate because the definition of this trait relates to a specific environmental value (zero) and confounds genetic effects on reaction norm elevation with genetic effects on environmental perception. Instead, we suggest a model with three traits representing genetic effects that, respectively, (i) are independent of the environment, (ii) alter the sensitivity of the phenotype to the environment and (iii) determine how the organism perceives the environment. The model predicts that, given sufficient additive genetic variation in environmental perception, the environmental value at which reaction norms tend to cross will respond rapidly to selection after an abrupt environmental change, and eventually becomes equal to the new mean environment. This readjustment of the zone of canalization becomes completed without changes in genetic correlations, genetic drift or imposing any fitness costs of maintaining plasticity. The asymptotic evolutionary outcome of this three‐trait linear reaction norm generally entails a lower degree of phenotypic plasticity than the two‐trait model, and maximum expected fitness does not occur at the mean trait values in the population.     

The norm for perceived husband superiority: a cause of human assortative marriage

I have suggested that human assortative marriage for a number of variables is partially caused by behavior in accordance with two norms. Epstein and Guttman (1987) have suggested that there is no empirical evidence for these norms. In this note evidence is reviewed for the norm of perceived husband-superiority. Others have shown that the evidence for this norm is strong in regard to height, and it is shown here that the evidence is strong also in regard to age. Evidence for the norm seems suggestive in regard to IQ, education, and social class, and nonexistent in regard to physical attractiveness. With respect to height, it seems that the magnitude of the correlation between spouses is associated with the size of the breeding population to which they belong. Thus, it seems likely that the hypothesized norms are learned rather than genetically coded.     

Properties of norm and variability

Data of the authors from many years on the two ways of development of a group of offspring of tailless amphibians—development with the effect of the norm of characteristics and development with the effect of mass anomalies of a number of characteristics—are summarized. Mass anomalies of limbs in the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis were obtained in laboratory (without using any special influences). They represent a syndrome when the structure of limbs and their girdles, as well as the sacral part of the spine, change correlatively. The syndrome has several stages of manifestation (according to the degree of intensification of deviations from the norm). The maximum manifestation of the syndrome produces a change in the norm of the structure of the sacral part. It was shown that change in the rule of its variability precedes change in the norm of the structure of the sacrum. Not having an opportunity of observing the process of evolution directly (change in norms on the large scale of time), we have to use any data (even indirect), which can give us information on how the change in the norm takes place and what happens to the variability.     

The norm for perceived husband superiority: A cause of human assortative marriage

Abstract

I have suggested that human assortative marriage for a number of variables is partially caused by behavior in accordance with two norms. Epstein and Guttman (1987) have suggested that there is no empirical evidence for these norms. In this note evidence is reviewed for the norm of perceived husband‐superiority. Others have shown that the evidence for this norm is strong in regard to height, and it is shown here that the evidence is strong also in regard to age. Evidence for the norm seems suggestive in regard to IQ, education, and social class, and nonexistent in regard to physical attractiveness. With respect to height, it seems that the magnitude of the correlation between spouses is associated with the size of the breeding population to which they belong. Thus, it seems likely that the hypothesized norms are learned rather than genetically coded.     

Social Norms of Cooperation in Small-Scale Societies

Indirect reciprocity, besides providing a convenient framework to address the evolution of moral systems, offers a simple and plausible explanation for the prevalence of cooperation among unrelated individuals. By helping someone, an individual may increase her/his reputation, which may change the pre-disposition of others to help her/him in the future. This, however, depends on what is reckoned as a good or a bad action, i.e., on the adopted social norm responsible for raising or damaging a reputation. In particular, it remains an open question which social norms are able to foster cooperation in small-scale societies, while enduring the wide plethora of stochastic affects inherent to finite populations. Here we address this problem by studying the stochastic dynamics of cooperation under distinct social norms, showing that the leading norms capable of promoting cooperation depend on the community size. However, only a single norm systematically leads to the highest cooperative standards in small communities. That simple norm dictates that only whoever cooperates with good individuals, and defects against bad ones, deserves a good reputation, a pattern that proves robust to errors, mutations and variations in the intensity of selection.     

Spread of two linked social norms on complex interaction networks

In this paper, we study the spread of social norms, such as rules and customs that are components of human cultures. We consider the spread of two social norms, which are linked through individual behaviors. Spreading social norms depend not only on the social network structure, but also on the learning system. We consider four social network structures: (1) complete mixing, in which each individual interacts with the others at random, (2) lattice, in which each individual interacts with its neighbors with some probability and with the others at random, (3) power-law network, in which a few influential people have more social contacts than the others, and (4) random graph network, in which the number of contacts follows a Poisson distribution. Using the lattice model, we also investigate the effect of the small-world phenomenon on the dynamics of social norms. In our models, each individual learns a social norm by trial and error (individual learning) and also imitates the other's social norm (social learning). We investigate how social network structure and learning systems affect the spread of two linked social norms. Our main results are: (1) Social learning does not lead to coexistence of social norms. Individual learning produces coexistence, and the dynamics of coexistence depend on which social norms are learned individually. (2) Social norms spread fastest in the power-law network model, followed by the random graph model, the complete mixing model, the two-dimensional lattice model and the one-dimensional lattice. (3) We see a "small world effect" in the one-dimensional model, but not in two dimensions.     

Using value of information to prioritize research needs for migratory bird management under climate change: a case study using federal land acquisition in the United States

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision‐making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high‐uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management‐relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management.     

Reaction norms with bifurcations shaped by evolution

Two versions of a model for the evolution of seasonal polyphenism investigate the evolution of reaction norm bifurcation and branching. The first version is without a specific submodel for morphological development and the second has an explicit developmental map. Version 1 is evolutionarily relatively unconstrained: (i) reaction norms are specified by matrices containing the probabilities of occurrence of environment-phenotype combinations, (ii) all conceivable reaction norm matrices are reachable through a sequence of mutations, and (iii) small as well as large mutational effects occur. This version is used to find the evolutionarily stable strategy favoured by the population ecology that is characterized by stabilizing viability selection with a cyclically fluctuating selection optimum. When the strength of selection is large and when the lag between initiation of development and selection on mature phenotype is not a multiple of half the period of the environmental cycle, a branching reaction norm evolves. In the second model version, branching reaction norms occur for certain parameter combinations of the developmental submodel, but the evolution of this pattern is often constrained. The evolutionary trajectory becomes trapped in a local selective optimum for the parameters of the developmental system. Substantial developmental noise evolves, but mutations that produce a selectively advantageous branching pattern do not occur from there.     

Conditions for the Emergence of Shared Norms in Populations with Incompatible Preferences

Understanding norms is a key challenge in sociology. Nevertheless, there is a lack of dynamical models explaining how one of several possible behaviors is established as a norm and under what conditions. Analysing an agent-based model, we identify interesting parameter dependencies that imply when two behaviors will coexist or when a shared norm will emerge in a heterogeneous society, where different populations have incompatible preferences. Our model highlights the importance of randomness, spatial interactions, non-linear dynamics, and self-organization. It can also explain the emergence of unpopular norms that do not maximize the collective benefit. Furthermore, we compare behavior-based with preference-based punishment and find interesting results concerning hypocritical punishment. Strikingly, pressuring others to perform the same public behavior as oneself is more effective in promoting norms than pressuring others to meet one’s own private preference. Finally, we show that adaptive group pressure exerted by randomly occuring, local majorities may create norms under conditions where different behaviors would normally coexist.     

Making the case for human life extension: personal arguments

In the close to medium future, the life sciences might permit a vast extension of the human life span. I will argue that this is a very desirable development for the individual person. The question whether death is a harm to the dying is irrelevant here. All it takes is that being alive is good for the living person and not being alive is not good for anyone. Thus, living persons who expect to live on happily are rationally required to want to stay alive. Eventual uncertainty whether it will be possible to be happy in the future provides no objection, but rather an incentive to try. This view, however, may be naive in assuming that persons are unchanging entities that exist separately from their psychological information. Objections have been derived from reductionistic views that value our future experiences in a way that declines with time, so that there will be a future point beyond which only negligible value accrues. If we adopt such a view, then we cannot now be concerned to have experiences beyond that point. I argue that these arguments fail to take into account all the reasons we might have to be concerned for the future and all kinds of such concern that come from them. The adoption of a plausible reductionistic account can arguably weaken our concern for the future and certainly change its quality in important ways. But this provides no objection to the desire to live forever, nor to live at all.     

How quickly do brains catch up with bodies? A comparative method for detecting evolutionary lag.

A trait may be at odds with theoretical expectation because it is still in the process of responding to a recent selective force. Such a situation can be termed evolutionary lag. Although many cases of evolutionary lag have been suggested, almost all of the arguments have focused on trait fitness. An alternative approach is to examine the prediction that trait expression is a function of the time over which the trait could evolve. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative method for using this 'time' approach and we apply the method to a long-standing lag hypothesis: evolutionary changes in brain size lag behind evolutionary changes in body size. We tested the prediction in primates that brain mass contrast residuals, calculated from a regression of pairwise brain mass contrasts on positive pairwise body mass contrasts, are correlated with the time since the paired species diverged. Contrary to the brain size lag hypothesis, time since divergence was not significantly correlated with brain mass contrast residuals. We found the same result when we accounted for socioecology, used alternative body mass estimates and used male rather than female values. These tests do not support the brain size lag hypothesis. Therefore, body mass need not be viewed as a suspect variable in comparative neuroanatomical studies and relative brain size should not be used to infer recent evolutionary changes in body size.     

Theory of Choice in Bandit,Information Sampling and Foraging Tasks

Decision making has been studied with a wide array of tasks. Here we examine the theoretical structure of bandit, information sampling and foraging tasks. These tasks move beyond tasks where the choice in the current trial does not affect future expected rewards. We have modeled these tasks using Markov decision processes (MDPs). MDPs provide a general framework for modeling tasks in which decisions affect the information on which future choices will be made. Under the assumption that agents are maximizing expected rewards, MDPs provide normative solutions. We find that all three classes of tasks pose choices among actions which trade-off immediate and future expected rewards. The tasks drive these trade-offs in unique ways, however. For bandit and information sampling tasks, increasing uncertainty or the time horizon shifts value to actions that pay-off in the future. Correspondingly, decreasing uncertainty increases the relative value of actions that pay-off immediately. For foraging tasks the time-horizon plays the dominant role, as choices do not affect future uncertainty in these tasks.     

Marriage and the maintenance of ethnic group boundaries: the case of Mauritius

Research on how cognitive and cultural biases shape marital decisions in Mauritius suggests that ethnic endogamy will remain the norm and maintain ethnic group boundaries. Results of a pile sorting exercise of Mauritian university students intimates that preferences for ethnic endogamy are paramount and override class-based considerations. Thus, despite socio-economic stratification within each ethnic group, inter-ethnic marriage is not common. Results from in-depth interviews suggest that individuals and their parents prefer to marry within their ethnic group to ensure that their spouse will abide by ethnically-specific norms and conventions, increasing the chances of coordinating reciprocal exchanges within a marriage. The presence of some inter-ethnic marriage does not weaken the boundaries between groups because children of inter-ethnic marriages tend to take on the ethnic identity and corresponding cultural norms of a single parent as a strategy to better negotiate social relations, and to marry someone of that same ethnicity.     

Propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in land cover change prediction process

An objective of satellite remote sensing is to predict or characterize the land cover change (LCC) over time. Sometimes we are capable of describing the changes of land cover with a probability distribution. However, we need sufficient knowledge about the natural variability of these changes, which is not always possible. In general, uncertainties can be subdivided into aleatory and epistemic. The main problem is that classical probability theory does not make a clear distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the way they are represented, i.e., both of them are described with a probability distribution. The aim of this paper is to propagate the aleatory and epistemic uncertainty associated with both input parameters (features extracted from satellite image object) and model structure of LCC prediction process using belief function theory. This will help reducing in a significant way the uncertainty about future changes of land cover. In this study, the changes prediction of land cover in Cairo region, Egypt for next 16 years (2030) is anticipated using multi-temporal Landsat TM5 satellite images in 1987 and 2014. The LCC prediction model results indicated that 15% of the agriculture and 6.5% of the desert will be urbanized in 2030. We conclude that our method based on belief function theory has a potential to reduce uncertainty and improve the prediction accuracy and is applicable in LCC analysis.     

Characterization of postdive recovery using sound recordings and its relationship to dive duration,exertion, and foraging effort of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

It is notoriously difficult to measure physiological parameters in cryptic free‐ranging marine mammals. However, it is critical to understand how marine mammals manage their energy expenditure and their diving behavior in environments where the predation risks are low and where survival is mainly linked to capacities to maintain physiological homeostasis and energy budget balance. Elephant seals are top marine predators that dive deeply and continuously when at sea. Using acoustic recorders deployed on two postbreeding southern elephant seals (SES) females, we developed methods to automatically estimate breathing frequency at the surface. Using this method, we found that seals took successive identical breaths at high frequency (0.29 Hz) when recovering at the surface and that breath count was strongly related to postdive surfacing time. In addition, dive depth was the main factor explaining surfacing time through the effects of dive duration and total underwater swimming effort exerted. Finally, we found that recovery does not only occur over one dive timescale, but over a multidive time scale for one individual. The way these predators manage their recovery will determine how they respond to the change in oceanic water column structure in the future.     

Variation in reaction norms: Statistical considerations and biological interpretation

Analysis of reaction norms, the functions by which the phenotype produced by a given genotype depends on the environment, is critical to studying many aspects of phenotypic evolution. Different techniques are available for quantifying different aspects of reaction norm variation. We examine what biological inferences can be drawn from some of the more readily applicable analyses for studying reaction norms. We adopt a strongly biologically motivated view, but draw on statistical theory to highlight strengths and drawbacks of different techniques. In particular, consideration of some formal statistical theory leads to revision of some recently, and forcefully, advocated opinions on reaction norm analysis. We clarify what simple analysis of the slope between mean phenotype in two environments can tell us about reaction norms, explore the conditions under which polynomial regression can provide robust inferences about reaction norm shape, and explore how different existing approaches may be used to draw inferences about variation in reaction norm shape. We show how mixed model‐based approaches can provide more robust inferences than more commonly used multistep statistical approaches, and derive new metrics of the relative importance of variation in reaction norm intercepts, slopes, and curvatures.     

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross‐validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland‐dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross‐validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross‐validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross‐validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.