Modeling the impact of reproductive mode on masting

Masting is defined as the intermittent highly variable production of seed in a plant population. According to reproductive modes, that is, sexual and asexual reproduction, masting species can be separated into three groups, that is, (1) species, for example, bamboo, flower only once before they die; (2) species, for example, Fagus, reproduce sexually; and (3) species, for example, Stipa tenacissima, reproduce both sexually and asexually. Several theories have been proposed to explore the underlying mechanisms of masting. However, to our knowledge, no theory has been found to explain the mechanism of masting species that reproduce both sexually and asexually. Here we refine the Resource Budget Model by considering a trade‐off between sexual and asexual reproduction. Besides the depletion efficient (i.e., the ratio of the cost of seed setting and the cost of flowering), other factors, such as the annual remaining resource (i.e., the rest of the resource from the photosynthetic activity after allocating to growth and maintenance), the trade‐off between sexual and asexual reproduction, and the reproductive thresholds, also affect masting. Moreover, two potential reproductive strategies are found to explain the mechanisms: (1) When the annual remaining resource is relatively low, plants reproduce asexually and a part of the resource is accumulated as the cost of asexual reproduction is less than the annual remaining resource. Plants flower and set fruits once the accumulated resource exceeds the threshold of sexual reproduction; (2) when the annual remaining resource is relatively high, and the accumulated resource surpasses the threshold of sexual reproduction, masting occurs. Remarkably, under certain depletion efficient, more investigation in sexual reproduction will lead plants to reproduce periodically. Additionally, plants investigate less resource to reproduce periodically when depletion efficient keeps increasing as plants can reproduce efficiently. Overall, our study provides new insights into the interpretation of masting, especially for species that reproduce both sexually and asexually.     

Parameterisation and validation of a resource budget model for masting using spatiotemporal flowering data of individual trees

Synchronised and fluctuating reproduction by plant populations, called masting, is widespread in diverse taxonomic groups. Here, we propose a new method to explore the proximate mechanism of masting by combining spatiotemporal flowering data, biochemical analysis of resource allocation and mathematical modelling. Flowering data of 170 trees over 13 years showed the emergence of clustering with trees in a given cluster mutually synchronised in reproduction, which was successfully explained by resource budget models. Analysis of resources invested in the development of reproductive organs showed that parametric values used in the model are significantly different between nitrogen and carbon. Using a fully parameterised model, we showed that the observed flowering pattern is explained only when the interplay between nitrogen dynamics and climatic cues was considered. This result indicates that our approach successfully identified resource type‐specific roles on masting and that the method is suitable for a wide range of plant species.     

Masting in ponderosa pine: comparisons of pollen and seed over space and time

Many plant species exhibit variable and synchronized reproduction, or masting, but less is known of the spatial scale of synchrony, effects of climate, or differences between patterns of pollen and seed production. We monitored pollen and seed cone production for seven Pinus ponderosa populations (607 trees) separated by up to 28?km and 1,350?m in elevation in Boulder County, Colorado, USA for periods of 4?C31?years for a mean per site of 8.7?years for pollen and 12.1 for seed cone production. We also analyzed climate data and a published dataset on 21?years of seed production for an eighth population (Manitou) 100?km away. Individual trees showed high inter-annual variation in reproduction. Synchrony was high within populations, but quickly became asynchronous among populations with a combination of increasing distance and elevational difference. Inter-annual variation in temperature and precipitation had differing influences on seed production for Boulder County and Manitou. We speculate that geographically variable effects of climate on reproduction arise from environmental heterogeneity and population genetic differentiation, which in turn result in localized synchrony. Although individual pines produce pollen and seed, only one-third of the covariation within trees was shared. As compared to seed cones, pollen had lower inter-annual variation at the level of the individual tree and was more synchronous. However, pollen and seed production were similar with respect to inter-annual variation at the population level, spatial scales of synchrony and associations with climate. Our results show that strong masting can occur at a localized scale, and that reproductive patterns can differ between pollen and seed cone production in a hermaphroditic plant.     

Spatial dynamics of specialist seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants

Masting, the synchronized and intermittent seed production by plant populations, provides highly variable food resources for specialist seed predators. Such a reproductive mode helps minimize seed losses through predator satiation and extinction of seed predator populations. The seed predators can buffer the resource variation through dispersal or extended diapause. We developed a spatially explicit resource-consumer model to understand the effect of masting on specialist seed predators. The masting dynamics were assumed to follow a resource-based model for plant reproduction, and the population dynamics of the predator were represented by a spatially extended Nicholson-Bailey model. The resultant model demonstrated that when host plants reproduce intermittently, seed predator populations go locally extinct, but global persistence of the predator is facilitated by dispersal or extended diapause. Global extinction of the predator resulted when the intermittent reproduction is highly synchronized among plants. An approximate invasion criterion for the predators showed that negative lag-1 autocorrelation in seeding reduces invasibility, and positive lag-1 cross-correlation enhances invasibility. Spatial synchronization in seeding at local scale caused by pollen coupling (or climate forcing) further prevented invasion of the predators. If the predators employed extended diapause, extremely high temporal variability in reproduction was required for plants to evade the predators.     

Modeling spatial dynamics of episodic and synchronous reproduction by plant populations: the effect of small-scale pollen coupling and large-scale climate

Many plant species show masting, intermittent and synchronized reproduction at population level. In the present paper, we review the resource-based model providing a theoretically plausible physiological mechanism underlying masting. In the model, a non-linear allocation of energy reserves is considered: plants accumulate photosynthate every year, produce flowers when the energy reserve level exceeds a threshold, and set seeds at a rate limited by pollen availability. The model predicted that individual plants alter their reproductive dynamics from annual to intermittent depending on how heavily the plant invests resource in reproduction. When fruit production is limited by the availability of outcross pollen, a plant population showed diverse reproductive behavior such as completely synchronized or desynchronized reproduction. Spatial scale of reproductive synchrony tended to be a few times larger than the range of direct pollen exchange. Impact of climatic fluctuation correlated at a large spatial scale was also investigated as an alternative synchronizing factor. The variation in annual productivity and the reproductive threshold induced from climatic fluctuation was accounted for by incorporating an additional term in the model. When plants show a 2 year reproductive cycle, highly synchronized reproduction at a regional scale was induced due to correlated environmental forcing, but reproductive synchrony with long intermast periods was realized only when pollen coupling and environmental forcing were at work. These results suggest that distance-dependent processes, such as pollen exchange between nearby trees, induce synchrony at a local scale and external environmental forcing correlated at geographically large scales works to strengthen and maintain such a synchrony.     

The role of large environmental noise in masting: General model and example from pistachio trees

Masting is synchronous, highly variable reproduction in a plant population, or synchronized boom-bust cycles of reproduction. These pulses of resources have cascading effects through ecosystems, and thus it is important to understand where they come from. How does masting happen and synchronize? In this paper, we suggest a mechanism for this. The mechanism is inspired by data from a pistachio orchard, which suggest that large environmental noise may play a crucial role in inducing masting in plant populations such as pistachio. We test this idea through development and analysis of a mathematical model of plant reproduction. We start with a very simple model, and generalize it based on the current models of plant reproduction and masting. Our results suggest that large environmental noise may indeed be a crucial part of the mechanism of masting in certain types of plant populations, including pistachio. This is a specific example of an important functional consequence of the interactions between stochasticity and nonlinearity.     

Masting uncoupling: mast seeding does not follow all mast flowering episodes in a dioecious juniper tree

Evolutionary selective forces, like predator satiation and pollination efficiency, are acknowledged to be major causes of masting (the variable, periodic and synchronic production of seeds in a population). However, a number of recent studies indicate that resources might also play an important role on shaping masting patterns. Dioecious masting species offer a privileged framework to study the role of resources on masting variation, since male and female plants often experience different reproductive costs and selective pressures. We followed masting and reproductive investment (RI) of the dioecious tree Juniperus thurifera in two populations along 10 years and studied the different response of males and females to experimentally increased water and nutrient availability in a third population. Juniperus thurifera females invested in reproduction three times more resources than males. Such disparity generated different resource‐use strategies in male and female trees. Tree‐ring growth and water use efficiency (WUE) confirmed that sexes differed in their resource investment temporal pattern, with males using current resources for reproduction and females using resources accumulated during longer periods. Watered and fertilized female trees presented significantly higher flowering reproductive investments than males and experienced an extraordinary mast‐flowering event. However, seeding RI and mast seeding were not affected by the treatment. This suggests that although resource availability affects the reproductive output of this species, there are other major forces regulating masting on J. thurifera. During 10 years, J. thurifera male and female trees presented high and low flowering years more or less synchronously. However, not all mast flowering episodes resulted in mast seeding, leading to masting uncoupling between flowering and seeding. Since flowering costs represent only 1% of females’ total reproductive investments, masting uncoupling could be a beneficial bet‐hedging strategy to maximize reproductive output in spite of unpredictable catastrophic events.     

Mechanisms driving interspecific variation in regional synchrony of trees reproduction

Seed production in many plants is characterized by large interannual variation, which is synchronized at subcontinental scales in some species but local in others. The reproductive synchrony affects animal migrations, trophic responses to resource pulses and the planning of management and conservation. Spatial synchrony of reproduction is typically attributed to the Moran effect, but this alone is unable to explain interspecific differences in synchrony. We show that interspecific differences in the conservation of seed production-weather relationships combine with the Moran effect to explain variation in reproductive synchrony. Conservative timing of weather cues that trigger masting allows populations to be synchronized at distances >1000 km. Conversely, if populations respond to variable weather signals, synchrony cannot be achieved. Our study shows that species vary in the extent to which their weather cueing is spatiotemporally conserved, with important consequences, including an interspecific variation of masting vulnerability to climate change.     

Masting in Buxus balearica: assessing fruiting patterns and processes at a large spatial scale

Masting consists of the synchronous highly variable seed production among years by a plant population. We studied spatiotemporal variation in fruit production in ten populations of Buxus balearica (six in the Balearic Islands and four in the Iberian Peninsula) from 2001 to 2004 in the light of masting. In some of them we assessed, by means of both observational and experimental data, the relationship between fruit production and some abiotic variables, the role of previous reproduction, the "pollination efficiency" and the "predator satiation" hypotheses, as well as the consequences for seedling density and survival. Fruit production in B. balearica showed substantial between-year variation, especially in island compared to mainland populations. Correlative evidence indicated that this variation and its geographic pattern were related to differences between regions in rainfall variability, cost of reproduction and the degree of ambophily. We found no indication of predator satiation. However, experimental tests failed to support many of our results, namely a negative effect of previous reproduction on future flowering in island populations and lower pollen limitation with increasing flower production. We therefore warn against exclusive reliance on correlations when testing hypotheses related to masting. In addition, seedling recruitment increased after some episodes of high fruit production but probably additional factors had a role in recruitment, suggesting that mast events not always translate into increased reproductive success. Although a limited time series only allows considering B. balearica as showing 'putative' masting, weather and pollination-related processes are good candidates for further exploration of fruiting patterns and processes at a large spatial scale.     

Reproductive correlation and mean-variance scaling of reproductive output for a forest model

We analyse the mean-variance scaling of reproductive output for a previously published forest model. The model relates individual reproductive effort and pollen limitation to the degree of synchrony in reproduction throughout a forest. We show that the exponent of Taylor's power law reflects the degree of synchrony of reproduction because it indicates the covariance of reproductive behavior. Further, we are able to relate the three components of masting, individual variability, population variability and synchrony in reproductive output, using Taylor's power law. Therefore Taylor's power law can be used as a synoptic index of masting.     

小兴安岭北部原始阔叶红松林红松结实气候敏感性及其种子年机制探讨

选取林分较为稳定的原始阔叶红松林作为研究地点,分析近16年的红松结实动态,研究红松（Pinus koraiensis）结实的气候敏感性及其种子年机制。首先按资源限制理论分析了红松结实的资源限制性,再根据资源匹配（气候假说）理论和Nicholls关于产量研究的建议将红松种子产量分解为趋势产量和气候产量,利用红松气候产量与前3年的气象数据进行气候影响分析,并且结合前期的物候观测,找出了红松结实的气候敏感阶段及其敏感的气象指标。结果显示：（1）红松当年种子产量与去年和前年产量和呈显著负相关,二者呈指数关系,表明了红松结实中资源限制机制的存在。并且资源限制可能是球果成熟对同年其它生殖发育的单向自我营养限制关系。（2）去年与前年6月平均气温的差值（ΔT₆）对当年红松种子产量具有很好的预测性。（3）花原基形成期是红松结实最为关键的气候敏感期,红松气候产量与此阶段气温和日照呈极显著负相关,与降水呈极显著正相关。（4）部分年份异常高温已经超出了花原基形成的最适温度范围,导致了红松产量的下降。（5）红松结实在生殖发育期内不同阶段都对气候变化表现敏感,红松种子年现象受到了资源限制机制和资源匹配机制的共同作用。本研究结果预示了温度升高,尤其是在气温升高过快的地区,红松结实对气候变暖具有一定的脆弱性并可能成为未来红松天然更新的重要瓶颈。     

Masting behaviour in a Mediterranean pine tree alters seed predator selection on reproductive output

• Context‐dependency in species interactions is widespread and can produce concomitant patterns of context‐dependent selection. Masting (synchronous production of large seed crops at irregular intervals by a plant population) has been shown to reduce seed predation through satiation (reduction in rates of seed predation with increasing seed cone output) and thus represents an important source of context‐dependency in plant‐animal interactions. However, the evolutionary consequences of such dynamics are not well understood.
• Here we describe masting behaviour in a Mediterranean model pine species (Pinus pinaster) and present a test of the effects of masting on selection by seed predators on reproductive output. We predicted that masting, by enhancing seed predator satiation, could in turn strengthen positive selection by seed predators for larger cone output. For this we collected six‐year data (spanning one mast year and five non‐mast years) on seed cone production and seed cone predation rates in a forest genetic trial composed by 116 P. pinaster genotypes.
• Following our prediction, we found stronger seed predator satiation during the masting year, which in turn led to stronger seed predator selection for increased cone production relative to non‐masting years.
• These findings provide evidence that masting can alter the evolutionary outcome of plant‐seed predator interactions. More broadly, our findings highlight that changes in consumer responses to resource abundance represent a widespread mechanism for predicting and understanding context dependency in plant‐consumer evolutionary dynamics.

     

Evolutionary jumping and breakthrough in tree masting evolution

Many long-lived plants such as trees show masting or intermittent and synchronized reproduction. In a coupled chaos system describing the dynamics of individual-plant resource budgets, masting occurs when the resource depletion coefficient k (ratio of the reproductive expenditure to the excess resource reserve) is large. Here, we mathematically studied the condition for masting evolution. In an infinitely large population, we obtained a deterministic dynamical system, to which we applied the pairwise invasibility plot and convergence stability of evolutionary singularity analyses. We prove that plants reproducing at the same rate every year are not evolutionarily stable. The resource depletion coefficient k increases, and the system oscillates with a period of 2 years (high and low reproduction) if k<1. Alternatively, k may evolve further and jump to a value >1, resulting in the sudden start of intermittent reproduction. We confirm that a high survivorship of young plants (seedlings) in the light-limited understory favors masting evolution, as previously suggested by computer simulations and field observations. The stochasticity caused by the finiteness of population size also promotes masting evolution.     

Density-dependent reproductive success among sympatric dipterocarps during a major mast fruiting event

Although masting in Southeast Asia is characterized by the interspecific synchronization of reproduction, little is known about the variation in regeneration strategies among sympatric tree species during major masting events. Herein, we examined the hypothesis that non-abundant species achieve greater seed survival per seed production at the pre- and post-dispersal stages by synchronizing reproduction with abundant species. During the masting event from May to September 2010, we installed seed traps in a primary forest plot of the Deramakot Forest Reserve, Borneo. To identify the possible causes of post-dispersal seed mortality, we conducted a seed-sowing experiment from September 2010 to July 2011 in a primary forest plot with high community-level dipterocarp seed density and two surrounding secondary forests with low seed densities. An abundant species (Shorea multiflora) produced more seeds than other species and exhibited a lower survival rate during the pre-dispersal stage. The ratio of aborted seeds was greater in species with greater seed production, while the ratio of seeds predated by insects was not, suggesting that resource limitations and/or greater inbreeding frequency may explain inefficient seed production. Interspecific variation was rarely observed for post-dispersal seed survival rates. Our study highlights the density-dependent variation in reproductive success between abundant and non-abundant dipterocarp species at the pre-dispersal stage. Non-abundant species achieved greater reproductive success by synchronizing reproduction with the masting of abundant species, which might be an important mechanism for sustainability of rare species populations.     

Snow tussocks, chaos, and the evolution of mast seeding

One hitherto intractable problem in studying mast seeding (synchronous intermittent heavy flowering by a population of perennial plants) is determining the relative roles of weather, plant reserves, and evolutionary selective pressures such as predator satiation. We parameterize a mechanistic resource-based model for mast seeding in Chionochloa pallens (Poaceae) using a long-term individually structured data set. Each plant's energy reserves were reconstructed using annual inputs (growing degree days), outputs (flowering), and a novel regression technique. This allowed the estimation of the parameters that control internal plant resource dynamics, and thereby allowed different models for masting to be tested against each other. Models based only on plant size, season degree days, and/or climatic cues (warm January temperatures) fail to reproduce the pattern of autocovariation in individual flowering and the high levels of flowering synchrony seen in the field. This shows that resource-matching or simple cue-based models cannot account for this example of mast seeding. In contrast, the resource-based model pulsed by a simple climate cue accurately describes both individual-level and population-level aspects of the data. The fitted resource-based model, in the absence of environmental forcing, has chaotic (but often statistically periodic) dynamics. Environmental forcing synchronizes individual reproduction, and the models predict highly variable seed production in close agreement with the data. An evolutionary model shows that the chaotic internal resource dynamics, as predicted by the fitted model, is selectively advantageous provided that adult mortality is low and seeds survive for more than 1 yr, both of which are true for C. pallens. Highly variable masting and chaotic dynamics appear to be advantageous in this case because they reduce seed losses to specialist seed predators, while balancing the costs of missed reproductive events.     

Of mast and mean: differential‐temperature cue makes mast seeding insensitive to climate change

Mast‐seeding plants often produce high seed crops the year after a warm spring or summer, but the warm‐temperature model has inconsistent predictive ability. Here, we show for 26 long‐term data sets from five plant families that the temperature difference between the two previous summers (ΔT) better predicts seed crops. This discovery explains how masting species tailor their flowering patterns to sites across altitudinal temperature gradients; predicts that masting will be unaffected by increasing mean temperatures under climate change; improves prediction of impacts on seed consumers; demonstrates that strongly masting species are hypersensitive to climate; explains the rarity of consecutive high‐seed years without invoking resource constraints; and generates hypotheses about physiological mechanisms in plants and insect seed predators. For plants, ΔT has many attributes of an ideal cue. This temperature‐difference model clarifies our understanding of mast seeding under environmental change, and could also be applied to other cues, such as rainfall.     

Evolution of masting with intermittence and synchronization under the enhancements of fertility and survival

Mast seeding is a reproductive mode in plants characterized by intermittence and intra- or interspecific synchronization. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the evolution of mast seeding, but the relative importance of each is still unclear due to the complex interactions among the various factors involved, i.e., the two components of masting (intermittence and synchronization), two potential advantages of masting (enhancement of fertility and survival), and the intensities of interactions among individuals through enhancement effects. Several masting studies have claimed that independent selective forces may operate to drive the evolution of intermittence and synchrony, although a theoretical framework for the action of these independent selective forces has not yet been established. In the present study, we investigated the relationships among these factors by analyzing a mathematical model and conducting computer simulations. We found that intense interactions among plant individuals, through the enhancement of fertility or survival, promoted synchronous reproduction while concomitantly suppressing evolution of intermittence. We also demonstrated that enhancement of either fertility or survivorship alone may be insufficient for the evolution of masting, whereas a combination of the two effects can significantly promote it. This suggested a complementary relationship between two well-known hypotheses for the origin of masting, namely, the pollen/pollinator hypothesis and the predator satiation hypothesis.     

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production (“masting breakdown”) which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship—correlation between tree size and viable seed production—has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.     

气候变化对植物有性生殖影响的研究进展

植物对全球气候变化的响应近年来已成为植物学研究热点之一,而有性生殖阶段对环境的变化最敏感。本文较系统地综述了过去数十年气候变化主要因子温度、温室气体、紫外线B辐射和气溶胶对植物花期、授粉受精和生殖产量等有性生殖过程的影响。主要概括:(1)温度适度升高促使大部分植物花期提前,加速授粉受精过程,但同时使传粉者活动期和花期分离而影响授粉受精,其部分增加生殖产量,但温度过高则减少产量。(2)温室气体中水汽过多或过少都减少植物生殖产量;CO2浓度升高一般有利于植物授粉受精,增加生殖产量;O3浓度增加则不利于植物生殖生长。(3)增强的UV-B辐射影响植物花期,不利于授粉受精,对生殖产量影响复杂。(4)气溶胶排放量增加对植物生殖产量的影响依据气溶胶浓度、植物冠层结构和环境条件不同而异。最后分析总结了国内外相关研究中仍存在的不足之处,为更好理解和深入研究植物对气候变化的响应机制提供参考。     

Within-season synchrony of a masting conifer enhances seed escape

Predator satiation resulting from interannual reproductive synchrony has been widely documented in masting plants, but how reproductive synchrony within a year influences seed escape is poorly understood. We evaluated whether the intra-annual reproductive synchrony of individual white spruce trees (Picea glauca) increased seed escape from their primary predispersal seed predator, North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus). Trees with cones that matured synchronously relative to those of other trees within red squirrel territories were significantly more likely to escape squirrel predation in years with both low and superabundant levels of cone production, generating a significantly positive linear selection differential for increasing intra-annual reproductive synchrony. Thus, this masting plant escapes seed predation in numbers through interannual synchrony in seed production and in time through intra-annual synchrony of seed availability.