Seroprevalence and severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

Background

This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6–32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10–17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0–5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04–5.90) and elderly ≥ 65years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99–3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10–17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly – the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season.     

Pre-admission statin use and in-hospital severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) disease

Background

Statins are drugs that are used to lower plasma cholesterol levels. Recently, contradictory claims have been made about possible additional effects of statins on progression of a variety of inflammatory disorders, including infections. We therefore examined the clinical course of patients admitted to hospital with 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), who were or weren''t taking statins at time of admission.

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was performed using the United Kingdom Influenza Clinical Information Network (FLU-CIN) database, containing detailed information on 1,520 patients admitted to participating hospitals with confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection between April 2009 and January 2010. We confined our analysis to those aged over 34 years. Univariate analysis was used to calculate unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95 percent confidence intervals (95%CI) for factors affecting progression to severe outcome (high dependency or intensive care unit level support) or death (cases); two multivariable logistic regression models were then established for age and sex, and for age, sex, obesity and “indication for statin” (e.g., heart disease or hypercholesterolaemia).

Results

We found no statistically significant association between pre-admission statin use and severity of outcome after adjustment for age and sex [adjusted OR: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.46–1.38); n = 571]. After adjustment for age, sex, obesity and indication for statin, the association between pre-admission statin use and severe outcome was not statistically significant; point estimates are compatible with a small but clinically significant protective effect of statin use [adjusted OR: 0.72 (95% CI: 0.38–1.33)].

Conclusions

In this group of patients hospitalized with pandemic influenza, a significant beneficial effect of pre-admission statin use on the in-hospital course of illness was not identified. Although the database from which these observations are derived represents the largest available suitable UK hospital cohort, a larger study would be needed to confirm whether there is any benefit in this setting.     

Prevalence of antibodies to 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in German adult population in pre- and post-pandemic period

Background

In order to detect levels of pre-existing cross-reactive antibodies in different age groups and to measure age-specific infection rates of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic in Germany, we conducted a seroprevalence study based on samples from an ongoing nationwide representative health survey.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analysed 845 pre-pandemic samples collected between 25 Nov 2008 and 28 Apr 2009 and 757 post-pandemic samples collected between 12 Jan 2010 and 24 Apr 2010. Reactive antibodies against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus (pH1N1) were detected using a haemagglutination inhibition test (antigen A/California/7/2009). Proportions of samples with antibodies at titre ≥40 and geometric mean of the titres (GMT) were calculated and compared among 6 age groups (18–29, 30–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, ≥70 years). The highest proportions of cross-reactive antibodies at titre ≥40 before the pandemic were observed among 18–29 year olds, 12.5% (95% CI 7.3–19.5%). The highest increase in seroprevalence between pre- and post-pandemic was also observed among 18–29 year olds, 29.9% (95% CI 16.7–43.2%). Effects of sampling period (pre- and post-pandemic), age, sex, and prior influenza immunization on titre were investigated with Tobit regression analysis using three birth cohorts (after 1976, between 1957 and 1976, and before 1957). The GMT increased between the pre- and post-pandemic period by a factor of 10.2 (95% CI 5.0–20.7) in the birth cohort born after 1976, 6.3 (95% CI 3.3–11.9) in those born between 1957 and 1976 and 2.4 (95% CI 1.3–4.3) in those born before 1957.

Conclusions/Significance

We demonstrate that infection rates differed among age groups and that the measured pre-pandemic level of cross-reactive antibodies towards pH1N1 did not add information in relation to protection and prediction of the most affected age groups among adults in the pandemic.     

Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico

Background

Mexico''s local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission.

Methods and Findings

We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases.

Conclusions

We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Attitudes toward and uptake of H1N1 vaccine among health care workers during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

Background

Though recommended by many and mandated by some, influenza vaccination rates among health care workers, even in pandemics, remain below optimal levels. The objective of this study was to assess vaccination uptake, attitudes, and distinguishing characteristics (including doctor-nurse differences) of health care workers who did and did not receive the pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine in late 2009.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In early 2010 we mailed a self-administered survey to 800 physicians and 800 nurses currently licensed and practicing in Minnesota. 1,073 individuals responded (cooperation rate: 69%). 85% and 62% of Minnesota physicians and nurses, respectively, reported being vaccinated. Accurately estimating the risk of vaccine side effects (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5–2.7), agreeing with a professional obligation to be vaccinated (OR 10.1; 95% CI 7.1–14.2), an ethical obligation to follow public health authorities'' recommendations (OR 9.9; 95% CI 6.6–14.9), and laws mandating pandemic vaccination (OR 3.1; 95% CI 2.3–4.1) were all independently associated with receiving the H1N1 influenza vaccine.

Conclusions/Significance

While a majority of health care workers in one midwestern state reported receiving the pandemic H1N1 vaccine, physicians and nurses differed significantly in vaccination uptake. Several key attitudes and perceptions may influence health care workers'' decisions regarding vaccination. These data inform how states might optimally enlist health care workers'' support in achieving vaccination goals during a pandemic.     

Registry-based surveillance of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark: the hidden burden on the young

Background

To follow the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark, influenza surveillance was extended with a system monitoring potentially influenza-associated hospitalisations.

Methodology/Principal Findings

National administrative data from 2004–2010 from the automatic reporting of all hospital visits and admissions in Denmark (population 5.5 million) were used. In-patient hospitalisations linked to ICD-10 codes for potentially influenza-associated conditions (influenza, viral and bacterial pneumonia, respiratory distress, and febrile convulsion) were aggregated by week and age groups; <5 years, 5–24 years, 25–64 years and ≥65 years. Weekly numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations were plotted to follow the course of the pandemic. We calculated the total numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations in each influenza season (week 30 to week 15, the following year). Risk ratios of being admitted with an influenza-associated condition in this season (2009/2010) compared to the previous five seasons (2004/2005–2008/2009) were calculated using binary regression. During the pandemic season, influenza-associated hospitalisations peaked in week 47, 2009. The total number of influenza-associated hospitalisations was 38,273 compared to the median of previous seasons of 35,662 (p = 0.28). The risk ratio of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the pandemic season compared to previous seasons was 1.63 (95%CI 1.49–1.78) for 5–24 year-olds and ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 for the other three age groups.

Conclusions

The 2009 pandemic influenza did not lead to an overall increase in the number of influenza-associated hospitalisations in Denmark in the 2009/2010 season and could be managed within existing hospital capacity. However, there was a disproportionally large impact on the age group 5–24 years. The influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009/2010 pandemic influenza season bore the signature features of historical pandemics: A skewed age-pattern and early out of season transmission.     

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection (swine flu) among children <18 years in Germany

Background

We determined antibodies to the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in children to assess: the incidence of (H1N1) 2009 infections in the 2009/2010 season in Germany, the proportion of subclinical infections and to compare titers in vaccinated and infected children.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Eight pediatric hospitals distributed over Germany prospectively provided sera from in- or outpatients aged 1 to 17 years from April 1^st to July 31^st 2010. Vaccination history, recall of infections and sociodemographic factors were ascertained. Antibody titers were measured with a sensitive and specific in-house hemagglutination inhibition test (HIT) and compared to age-matched sera collected during 6 months before the onset of the pandemic in Germany. We analyzed 1420 post-pandemic and 300 pre-pandemic sera. Among unvaccinated children aged 1–4 and 5–17 years the prevalence of HI titers (≥1∶10) was 27.1% (95% CI: 23.5–31.3) and 53.5% (95% CI: 50.9–56.2) compared to 1.7% and 5.5%, respectively, for pre-pandemic sera, accounting for a serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 during the season 2009/2010 of 25,4% (95% CI : 19.3–30.5) in children aged 1–4 years and 48.0% (95% CI: 42.6–52.0) in 5–17 year old children. Of children with HI titers ≥1∶10, 25.5% (95% CI: 22.5–28.8) reported no history of any infectious disease since June 2009. Among vaccinated children, 92% (95%-CI: 87.0–96.6) of the 5–17 year old but only 47.8% (95%-CI: 33.5–66.5) of the 1–4 year old children exhibited HI titers against influenza A virus (H1N1) 2009.

Conclusion

Serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infections in children indicates high infection rates with older children (5–17 years) infected twice as often as younger children. In about a quarter of the children with HI titers after the season 2009/2010 subclinical infections must be assumed. Low HI titers in young children after vaccination with the AS03_B-adjuvanted split virion vaccine need further scrutiny.     

Seroprevalence of pandemic H1N1 antibody among health care workers in Hong Kong following receipt of monovalent 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine

Background

Healthcare workers in many countries are recommended to receive influenza vaccine to protect themselves as well as patients. A monovalent H1N1 vaccine became available in Hong Kong in December 2009 and around 10% of local healthcare workers had received the vaccine by February 2010.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study of the prevalence of antibody to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among HCWs in Hong Kong in February–March 2010 following the first pandemic wave and the pH1N1 vaccination campaign. In this study we focus on the subset of healthcare workers who reported receipt of non-adjuvanted monovalent 2009 H1N1 vaccine (Panenza, Sanofi Pasteur). Sera collected from HCWs were tested for antibody against the pH1N1 virus by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and viral neutralization (VN) assays.

Results

We enrolled 703 HCWs. Among 104 HCWs who reported receipt of pH1N1 vaccine, 54% (95% confidence interval (CI): 44%–63%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and 42% (95% CI: 33%–52%) had antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN. The proportion of HCWs with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by HI and VN significantly decreased with age, and the proportion with antibody titer ≥1∶40 by VN was marginally significantly lower among HCWs who reported prior receipt of 2007–08 seasonal influenza vaccine (odds ratio: 0.43; 95% CI: 0.19–1.00). After adjustment for age, the effect of prior seasonal vaccine receipt was not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that monovalent H1N1 vaccine may have had suboptimal immunogenicity in HCWs in Hong Kong. Larger studies are required to confirm whether influenza vaccine maintains high efficacy and effectiveness in HCWs.     

An analysis of 332 fatalities infected with pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) in Argentina

Background

The apparent high number of deaths in Argentina during the 2009 pandemic led to concern that the influenza A H1N1pdm disease was different there. We report the characteristics and risk factors for influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities.

Methods

We identified laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities occurring during June-July 2009. Physicians abstracted data on age, sex, time of onset of illness, medical history, clinical presentation at admission, laboratory, treatment, and outcomes using standardize questionnaires. We explored the characteristics of fatalities according to their age and risk group.

Results

Of 332 influenza A H1N1pdm fatalities, 226 (68%) were among persons aged <50 years. Acute respiratory failure was the leading cause of death. Of all cases, 249 (75%) had at least one comorbidity as defined by Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Obesity was reported in 32% with data and chronic pulmonary disease in 28%. Among the 40 deaths in children aged <5 years, chronic pulmonary disease (42%) and neonatal pathologies (35%) were the most common co-morbidities. Twenty (6%) fatalities were among pregnant or postpartum women of which only 47% had diagnosed co-morbidities. Only 13% of patients received antiviral treatment within 48 hours of symptom onset. None of children aged <5 years or the pregnant women received antivirals within 48 h of symptom onset. As the pandemic progressed, the time from symptom-onset to medical care and to antiviral treatment decreased significantly among case-patients who subsequently died (p<0.001).

Conclusion

Persons with co-morbidities, pregnant and who received antivirals late were over-represented among influenza A H1N1pdm deaths in Argentina, though timeliness of antiviral treatment improved during the pandemic.     

Risk factors and immunity in a nationally representative population following the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Background

Understanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling.

Methods and Findings

We collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ≥1∶40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6–29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5–19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3–55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2–20.8). Older adults aged ≥60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7–30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3–30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1–64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6–36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8–29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms.

Conclusions

Based on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population.     

Effectiveness of pandemic H1N1-2009 vaccination in reducing laboratory confirmed influenza infections among military recruits in tropical Singapore

Background

Limited information is available about pandemic H1N1-2009 influenza vaccine effectiveness in tropical communities. We studied the effectiveness of a pandemic H1N1 vaccination program in reducing influenza cases in Singapore.

Methods

A surveillance study was conducted among military personnel presenting with febrile respiratory illness from mid-2009 to mid-2010. Consenting individuals underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. A vaccination program (inactivated monovalent Panvax H1N1-2009 vaccine) was carried out among recruits. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to quantify relative risks in the pre- and post-vaccination periods. An autoregressive generalised linear model (GLM) was developed to minimise confounding.

Results

Of 2858 participants, 437(15.3%), 60(2.1%), and 273(9.6%) had pandemic H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B. The ratio of relative risks for pandemic H1N1 infection before and after vaccination for the recruit camp relative to other camps was 0.14(0.016,0.49); for H3N2, 0.44(0.035,1.8); and for influenza B, 18(0.77,89). Using the GLM for the recruit camp, post-vaccination weekly cases decreased by 54%(37%,67%, p<0.001) from that expected without vaccination; influenza B increased by 66 times(9–479 times, p<0.001); with no statistical difference for H3N2 (p = 0.54).

Conclusions

Pandemic vaccination reduced H1N1-2009 disease burden among military recruits. Routine seasonal influenza vaccination should be considered.     

Field effectiveness of pandemic and 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines against 2009-2010 A(H1N1) influenza: estimations from surveillance data in France

Background

In this study, we assess how effective pandemic and trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines were in preventing influenza-like illness (ILI) during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in France. We also compare vaccine effectiveness against ILI versus laboratory-confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, and assess the possible bias caused by using non-specific endpoints and observational data.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We estimated vaccine effectiveness by using the following formula: VE  =  (PPV-PCV)/(PPV(1-PCV)) × 100%, where PPV is the proportion vaccinated in the population and PCV the proportion of vaccinated influenza cases. People were considered vaccinated three weeks after receiving a dose of vaccine. ILI and pandemic A(H1N1) laboratory-confirmed cases were obtained from two surveillance networks of general practitioners. During the epidemic, 99.7% of influenza isolates were pandemic A(H1N1). Pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptakes in the population were obtained from the National Health Insurance database and by telephonic surveys, respectively. Effectiveness estimates were adjusted by age and week. The presence of residual biases was explored by calculating vaccine effectiveness after the influenza period. The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing ILI was 52% (95% confidence interval: 30–69) during the pandemic and 33% (4–55) after. It was 86% (56–98) against confirmed influenza. The effectiveness of seasonal vaccines against ILI was 61% (56–66) during the pandemic and 19% (−10–41) after. It was 60% (41–74) against confirmed influenza.

Conclusions

The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza on the field was high, consistently with published findings. It was significantly lower against ILI. This is unsurprising since not all ILI cases are caused by influenza. Trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines had a statistically significant effectiveness in preventing ILI and confirmed pandemic influenza, but were not better in preventing confirmed pandemic influenza than in preventing ILI. This lack of difference might be indicative of selection bias.     

The seroprevalence of pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus in China

Background

Mainland China experienced pandemic influenza H1N1 (2009) virus (pH1N1) with peak activity during November-December 2009. To understand the geographic extent, risk factors, and attack rate of pH1N1 infection in China we conducted a nationwide serological survey to determine the prevalence of antibodies to pH1N1.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Stored serum samples (n = 2,379) collected during 2006-2008 were used to estimate baseline serum reactogenicity to pH1N1. In January 2010, we used a multistage-stratified random sampling method to select 50,111 subjects who met eligibility criteria and collected serum samples and administered a standardized questionnaire. Antibody response to pH1N1 was measured using haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay and the weighted seroprevalence was calculated using the Taylor series linearization method. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for pH1N1 seropositivity. Baseline seroprevalence of pH1N1 antibody (HI titer ≥40) was 1.2%. The weighted seroprevalence of pH1N1 among the Chinese population was 21.5%(vaccinated: 62.0%; unvaccinated: 17.1%). Among unvaccinated participants, those aged 6-15 years (32.9%) and 16-24 years (30.3%) had higher seroprevalence compared with participants aged 25–59 years (10.7%) and ≥60 years (9.9%, P<0.0001). Children in kindergarten and students had higher odds of seropositivity than children in family care (OR: 1.36 and 2.05, respectively). We estimated that 207.7 million individuals (15.9%) experienced pH1N1 infection in China.

Conclusions/Significance

The Chinese population had low pre-existing immunity to pH1N1 and experienced a relatively high attack rate in 2009 of this virus. We recommend routine control measures such as vaccination to reduce transmission and spread of seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses.     

Epidemiological characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza based on paired sera from a longitudinal community cohort study

Background

While patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a paired serological survey of a cohort of households in Hong Kong, recruited using random digit dialing, and gathered data on severe confirmed cases from the public hospital system (>90% inpatient days). Paired sera were obtained from 770 individuals, aged 3 to 103, along with detailed individual-level and household-level risk factors for infection. Also, we extrapolated beyond the period of our study using time series of severe cases and we simulated alternate study designs using epidemiological parameters obtained from our data. Rates of infection during the period of our study decreased substantially with age: for 3–19 years, the attack rate was 39% (31%–49%); 20–39 years, 8.9% (5.3%–14.7%); 40–59 years, 5.3% (3.5%–8.0%); and 60 years or older, 0.77% (0.18%–4.2%). We estimated parameters for a parsimonious model of infection in which a linear age term and the presence of a child in the household were used to predict the log odds of infection. Patterns of symptom reporting suggested that children experienced symptoms more often than adults. The overall rate of confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) deaths was 7.6 (6.2–9.5) per 100,000 infections. However, there was substantial and progressive increase in deaths per 100,000 infections with increasing age from 0.66 (0.65–0.86) for 3–19 years up to 220 (50–4,000) for 60 years and older. Extrapolating beyond the period of our study using rates of severe disease, we estimated that 56% (43%–69%) of 3–19 year olds and 16% (13%–18%) of people overall were infected by the pandemic strain up to the end of January 2010. Using simulation, we found that, during 2009, larger cohorts with shorter follow-up times could have rapidly provided similar data to those presented here.

Conclusions

Should H1N1pdm evolve to be more infectious in older adults, average rates of severe disease per infection could be higher in future waves: measuring such changes in severity requires studies similar to that described here. The benefit of effective vaccination against H1N1pdm infection is likely to be substantial for older individuals. Revised pandemic influenza preparedness plans should include prospective serological cohort studies. Many individuals, of all ages, remained susceptible to H1N1pdm after the main 2009 wave in Hong Kong. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

An ecological study of the determinants of differences in 2009 pandemic influenza mortality rates between countries in Europe

Background

Pandemic A (H1N1) 2009 mortality rates varied widely from one country to another. Our aim was to identify potential socioeconomic determinants of pandemic mortality and explain between-country variation.

Methodology

Based on data from a total of 30 European countries, we applied random-effects Poisson regression models to study the relationship between pandemic mortality rates (May 2009 to May 2010) and a set of representative environmental, health care-associated, economic and demographic country-level parameters. The study was completed by June 2010.

Principal Findings

Most regression approaches indicated a consistent, statistically significant inverse association between pandemic influenza-related mortality and per capita government expenditure on health. The findings were similar in univariable [coefficient: –0.00028, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): –0.00046, –0.00010, p = 0.002] and multivariable analyses (including all covariates, coefficient: –0.00107, 95% CI: –0.00196, –0.00018, p = 0.018). The estimate was barely insignificant when the multivariable model included only significant covariates from the univariate step (coefficient: –0.00046, 95% CI: –0.00095, 0.00003, p = 0.063).

Conclusions

Our findings imply a significant inverse association between public spending on health and pandemic influenza mortality. In an attempt to interpret the estimated coefficient (–0.00028) for the per capita government expenditure on health, we observed that a rise of 100 international dollars was associated with a reduction in the pandemic influenza mortality rate by approximately 2.8%. However, further work needs to be done to unravel the mechanisms by which reduced government spending on health may have affected the 2009 pandemic influenza mortality.     

Pandemic influenza due to pH1N1/2009 virus: estimation of infection burden in Reunion Island through a prospective serosurvey, austral winter 2009

Background

To date, there is little information that reflects the true extent of spread of the pH1N1/2009v influenza pandemic at the community level as infection often results in mild or no clinical symptoms. This study aimed at assessing through a prospective study, the attack rate of pH1N1/2009 virus in Reunion Island and risk factors of infection, during the 2009 season.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A serosurvey was conducted during the 2009 austral winter, in the frame of a prospective population study. Pairs of sera were collected from 1687 individuals belonging to 772 households, during and after passage of the pandemic wave. Antibodies to pH1N1/2009v were titered using the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA) with titers ≥1/40 being considered positive. Seroprevalence during the first two weeks of detection of pH1N1/2009v in Reunion Island was 29.8% in people under 20 years of age, 35.6% in adults (20–59 years) and 73.3% in the elderly (≥60 years) (P<0.0001). Baseline corrected cumulative incidence rates, were 42.9%, 13.9% and 0% in these age groups respectively (P<0.0001). A significant decline in antibody titers occurred soon after the passage of the epidemic wave. Seroconversion rates to pH1N1/2009 correlated negatively with age: 63.2%, 39.4% and 16.7%, in each age group respectively (P<0.0001). Seroconversion occurred in 65.2% of individuals who were seronegative at inclusion compared to 6.8% in those who were initially seropositive.

Conclusions

Seroincidence of pH1N1/2009v infection was three times that estimated from clinical surveillance, indicating that almost two thirds of infections occurring at the community level have escaped medical detection. People under 20 years of age were the most affected group. Pre-epidemic titers ≥1/40 prevented seroconversion and are likely protective against infection. A concern was raised about the long term stability of the antibody responses.     

A review of adult mortality due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A in California

Background

While children and young adults had the highest attack rates due to 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza A (2009 H1N1), studies of hospitalized cases noted high fatality in older adults. We analyzed California public health surveillance data to better characterize the populations at risk for dying due to 2009 H1N1.

Methods and Findings

A case was an adult ≥20 years who died with influenza-like symptoms and laboratory results indicative of 2009 H1N1. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records using a standardized case report form. From April 3, 2009 – August 10, 2010, 541 fatal cases ≥20 years with 2009 H1N1 were reported. Influenza fatality rates per 100,000 population were highest in persons 50–59 years (3.5; annualized rate = 2.6) and 60–69 years (2.3; annualized rate = 1.7) compared to younger and older age groups (0.4–1.9; annualized rates = 0.3–1.4). Of 486 cases hospitalized prior to death, 441 (91%) required intensive care unit (ICU) admission. ICU admission rates per 100,000 population were highest in adults 50–59 years (8.6). ICU case-fatality ratios among adults ranged from 24–42%, with the highest ratios in persons 70–79 years. A total of 425 (80%) cases had co-morbid conditions associated with severe seasonal influenza. The prevalence of most co-morbid conditions increased with increasing age, but obesity, pregnancy and obstructive sleep apnea decreased with age. Rapid testing was positive in 97 (35%) of 276 tested. Of 482 cases with available data, 384 (80%) received antiviral treatment, including 49 (15%) of 328 within 48 hours of symptom onset.

Conclusions

Adults aged 50–59 years had the highest fatality due to 2009 H1N1; older adults may have been spared due to pre-existing immunity. However, once infected and hospitalized in intensive care, case-fatality ratios were high for all adults, especially in those over 60 years. Vaccination of adults older than 50 years should be encouraged.     

Estimates of pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness in Europe, 2009-2010: results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) multicentre case-control study

Background

A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009–2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).

Methods and Findings

Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6–85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4–89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8–87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9–84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1–88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4–89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI −69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8–14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009–2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI −65.2 to 50.9).

Conclusions

Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010–2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary