Plant species composition shifts in the Tatra Mts as a response to environmental change: a resurvey study after 90 years

Mountain vegetation is often considered highly sensitive to climate and land-use changes due to steep environmental gradients determining local plant species composition. In this study we present plant species compositional shifts in the Tatra Mts over the past 90 years and discuss the potential drivers of the changes observed. Using historical vegetation studies of the region from 1927, we resurveyed 76 vegetation plots, recording the vascular flora of each plot using the same methodology as in the original survey. We used an indirect method to quantify plant species compositional shifts and to indicate which environmental gradients could be responsible for these shifts: by calculating shifts in estimated species optima as reflected in shifts in the ecological indicator values of co-occurring species. To find shifts in species composition, focusing on each vegetation type separately, we used ordination (DCA). The species optimum changed significantly for at least one of the tested environmental gradients for 26 of the 95 plant species tested; most of these species changed in terms of the moisture indicator value. We found that the strongest shifts in species composition were in mylonite grassland, snowbed and hygrophilous tall herb communities. Changes in precipitation and increase in temperature were found to most likely drive compositional shifts in vegetation resurveyed. It is likely that the combined effect of climate change and cessation of sheep grazing has driven a species composition shift in granite grasslands communities.     

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt ‘regime shifts’ have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large‐scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high‐latitude regions. However, there is very little high‐resolution modelling of smaller‐scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate‐driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high‐resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non‐linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non‐linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374–1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%–1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.     

Differentiating vegetation types from eastern South American ecosystems based on modern and subfossil pollen samples: evaluating modern analogues

In south and southeast Brazil land use caused profound changes in natural vegetation and consequently the value of the pollen composition in surface samples as modern analogues. In order to test the capability of modern pollen to represent the natural vegetation, three different time slices of pollen assemblages from 27 sites spread over southern and south-eastern Brazil and the Misiones Province in Argentina were collated. Pollen samples from the pre-colonization period, selected from the moment just before abrupt changes evidenced on pollen diagrams caused by the colonization process throughout the last 500 years, were assumed to represent the natural vegetation conditions once the climate remained stable within this period. Thus we used pre-colonization assemblages to compare with modern samples to explore to what extent surface pollen may be biased in representing the natural vegetation types. Furthermore, to compare man made vegetation change to climate driven vegetation change we also compared to these 20 out of 27 samples dated to 3,000 years bp. Guided by ordination and cluster analysis, but using abundance thresholds of indicator taxa we classified the pollen spectra of pre-colonization time into seven groups consistent with the main vegetation types in the area. Ordination analyses capture the differentiation between grassland and forested vegetation and between tropical and subtropical vegetation types. Comparing the pre-colonization with other time slices we observed that based on Poaceae abundance, 70 and 85 % respectively of sites from 3,000 bp and modern assemblages maintained their classification. Based on finer classification criteria these values decreased to 40 and 52 % respectively. Square chord dissimilarity indicates that colonization impact altered the pollen composition as strongly as 3,000 years of climate induced vegetation change. The surface samples still represent important environmental gradients; however, their use as modern analogue requires careful treatment and eventual exclusion of highly impacted sites.     

Diversity and occurrence of herbaceous communities in West African savannas in relation to climate,land use and habitat

In the face of the current changes in land use and climate as well as habitat destruction, it is important to study herbaceous vegetation as an indicator of changes occurring in savanna ecosystems. We investigated the effects of climate, land use and habitat, both alone and in combination, on the diversity and occurrence of West African savanna herbaceous plant communities. Floristic data and environmental variables were sampled in Burkina Faso and subjected to ordination and indicator species analysis to explore the variation in nine vegetation types. Regression analyses showed that climate, land use, humidity gradient, soil fraction and vegetation structure discriminate herbaceous plant communities. Climate, habitat and their interaction had the greatest effect on the occurrence of these communities. Changes in species richness of the studied communities were mainly due to climate, land use and their interaction, which were more important for increasing rather than decreasing diversity. In all cases, climate conditions remained the most important environmental factor driving vegetation variation in West African savannas. Beside this, the effects of habitat degradation in interaction with land use and climatic conditions indicate land use to be a threat for the diversity of the herbaceous vegetation.     

Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology,seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California

Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human–vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host‐seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick‐encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host‐seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host‐seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human–vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.     

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land‐use change on an endangered bird

Climate change and land‐use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land‐use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual‐based model to explore the effects of land‐use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red‐cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land‐use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate‐driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land‐use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor‐quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates

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Scattered trees: a complementary strategy for facilitating adaptive responses to climate change in modified landscapes?

1.  Facilitating adaptive responses of organisms in modified landscape will be essential to overcome the negative effects of climate change and its interaction with land use change. Without such action, many organisms will be prevented from achieving the predicted range shifts they need to survive.
2.  Scattered trees are a prominent feature of many modified landscapes, and could play an important role in facilitating climate change adaptation. They are keystone structures because of the disproportionally large ecological values and ecosystem services that they provide relative to the area they occupy in these landscapes. The provision of habitat and connectivity will be particularly relevant.
3.  Scattered trees are declining in modified landscapes due to elevated tree mortality and poor recruitment often associated with intensive land use. The continuing global decline of scattered trees will undermine the capacity of many organisms to adapt to climate change.
4.   Synthesis and applications. The sustainable management of scattered trees in modified landscapes could complement other strategies for facilitating climate change adaptation. They create continuous, though sparse, vegetation cover that permits multi-directional movements of biota across landscapes and ecological networks. They have the capacity to span ecosystems and climatic gradients that cannot be captured in formal reserves alone. The management of scattered trees should be an integral part of conservation objectives and agricultural activities in modified landscapes. Public investment, through mechanisms such as agri-environmental schemes, in rotational grazing, temporary set-asides, tree-planting and regulations that reduce clearing and early mortality among standing trees will improve the capacity of biota to adapt to climate change.     

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21^st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21^st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.     

Future changes and driving factors of global peak vegetation growth based on CMIP6 simulations

Accurate detection and attribution of changes in global peak vegetation growth at the annual scale are prerequisites for characterising the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems and developing strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This study examined the long-term global normalised difference vegetation index during the baseline period (1982–2015) and found widespread greening in 70% of global vegetated areas in response to climate warming. However, climate change is not the only cause of global greening. The spatial variability in the response of global vegetation to environmental factors has not been well established. The Cubist model was used to investigate the relationship between peak vegetation growth and environmental variables. The results showed that 64% of the spatial variation in greening/browning can be explained by climate (including precipitation and temperature), followed by atmospheric components of nitrogen deposition and carbon dioxide concentration (17%), terrain properties (12%), and soil properties (7%). By incorporating future climate and atmospheric component projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 into the model, enhanced vegetation greening was predicted globally, particularly in evergreen needle-leaf forests and grasslands, from 2081 to 2100. Many browning changes were predicted in evergreen and deciduous broadleaf forests, mixed forests, and around areas influenced by human land use. Overall, these findings reveal that environmental factors have relevant integrated impacts on vegetation dynamics under climate change and should be considered during the design of local mitigation and adaptation management strategies.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Reconstruction of paleoclimates by isotopic analysis: What can the fossil isotopic record tell us about the plant life of past environments?

The last two decades of scientific research have seen a pronounced increase in studies of abrupt climatic change. Understanding past shifts in climate becomes a priority as we examine reasons for climatic change and the interrelationship between the biosphere and the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere. The realisation that modern climate appears to be changing at a rapid rate has challenged scientists to look at past records of abrupt climate change. How rapidly can vegetation respond to climate shifts? What magnitude of vegetation change has been seen in the past? How widespread were these changes and how do they compare with shifts in the polar ice cores and the ocean? A selection of vegetation records, for which the isotopic signatures reflect environmental changes, are examined here. This paper focuses on the type of paleoclimatic interpretation that can be made: qualitative information with or without temporal constraint or even, in the best instances, the possibility of reaching a quantitative reconstruction.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate,atmospheric CO2, and land use

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO₂ levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias‐corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land‐use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, land‐use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO₂ fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate‐induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land‐use change and climate‐driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO₂ impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land‐use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO₂ fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.     

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^?1. The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.     

Current and Future Fire Regimes and Their Influence on Natural Vegetation in Ethiopia

Fire is a major factor shaping the distribution of vegetation types. In this study, we used a recent high resolution map of potential natural vegetation (PNV) types and MODIS fire products to model and investigate the importance of fire as driver of vegetation distribution patterns in Ethiopia. We employed statistical modeling techniques to estimate the distribution of fire and the PNVs under current climatic conditions, and used the calibrated models to project distributions for different climate change scenarios. Results show a clear congruence between distribution patterns of fire and major vegetation types. The effect of climate change varies considerably between climate change models and scenarios, but as general trend expansions of moist Afromontane forest and Combretum–Terminalia woodlands were predicted. Fire-prone areas were also predicted to increase, and including this factor in vegetation distribution models resulted in stronger expansion of Combretum–Terminalia woodlands and a more limited increase of moist Afromontane forests. These results underline the importance of fire as a regulating factor of vegetation distribution patterns, and how fire needs to be factored into predict the possible effects of climate change. For conservation strategies to effectively address conservation challenges caused by rapid climate shifts, it is imperative that they not only consider the direct influence of climate changes on the vegetation, species species, or biodiversity patterns, but also the influence of future fire regimes.     

Potential contributions of root decomposition to the nitrogen cycle in arctic forest and tundra

Plant contributions to the nitrogen (N) cycle from decomposition are likely to be altered by vegetation shifts associated with climate change. Roots account for the majority of soil organic matter input from vegetation, but little is known about differences between vegetation types in their root contributions to nutrient cycling. Here, we examine the potential contribution of fine roots to the N cycle in forest and tundra to gain insight into belowground consequences of the widely observed increase in woody vegetation that accompanies climate change in the Arctic. We combined measurements of root production from minirhizotron images with tissue analysis of roots from differing root diameter and color classes to obtain potential N input following decomposition. In addition, we tested for changes in N concentration of roots during early stages of decomposition, and investigated whether vegetation type (forest or tundra) affected changes in tissue N concentration during decomposition. For completeness, we also present respective measurements of leaves. The potential N input from roots was twofold greater in forest than in tundra, mainly due to greater root production in forest. Potential N input varied with root diameter and color, but this variation tended to be similar in forest and tundra. As for roots, the potential N input from leaves was significantly greater in forest than in tundra. Vegetation type had no effect on changes in root or leaf N concentration after 1 year of decomposition. Our results suggest that shifts in vegetation that accompany climate change in the Arctic will likely increase plant‐associated potential N input both belowground and aboveground. In contrast, shifts in vegetation might not alter changes in tissue N concentration during early stages of decomposition. Overall, differences between forest and tundra in potential contribution of decomposing roots to the N cycle reinforce differences between habitats that occur for leaves.     

Microhabitats reduce animal's exposure to climate extremes

Extreme weather events, such as unusually hot or dry conditions, can cause death by exceeding physiological limits, and so cause loss of population. Survival will depend on whether or not susceptible organisms can find refuges that buffer extreme conditions. Microhabitats offer different microclimates to those found within the wider ecosystem, but do these microhabitats effectively buffer extreme climate events relative to the physiological requirements of the animals that frequent them? We collected temperature data from four common microhabitats (soil, tree holes, epiphytes, and vegetation) located from the ground to canopy in primary rainforests in the Philippines. Ambient temperatures were monitored from outside of each microhabitat and from the upper forest canopy, which represent our macrohabitat controls. We measured the critical thermal maxima (CT_max) of frog and lizard species, which are thermally sensitive and inhabit our microhabitats. Microhabitats reduced mean temperature by 1–2 °C and reduced the duration of extreme temperature exposure by 14–31 times. Microhabitat temperatures were below the CT_max of inhabitant frogs and lizards, whereas macrohabitats consistently contained lethal temperatures. Microhabitat temperatures increased by 0.11–0.66 °C for every 1 °C increase in macrohabitat temperature, and this nonuniformity in temperature change influenced our forecasts of vulnerability for animal communities under climate change. Assuming uniform increases of 6 °C, microhabitats decreased the vulnerability of communities by up to 32‐fold, whereas under nonuniform increases of 0.66 to 3.96 °C, microhabitats decreased the vulnerability of communities by up to 108‐fold. Microhabitats have extraordinary potential to buffer climate and likely reduce mortality during extreme climate events. These results suggest that predicted changes in distribution due to mortality and habitat shifts that are derived from macroclimatic samples and that assume uniform changes in microclimates relative to macroclimates may be overly pessimistic. Nevertheless, even nonuniform temperature increases within buffered microhabitats would still threaten frogs and lizards.     

The Definition of British Water Beetle Species Pools (Coleoptera) and their Relationship to Altitude, Temperature, Precipitation and Land Cover Variables

Pooled water beetle species lists from 1826 British national grid 10-km squares were analysed using multivariate ordination and classification methods. The relationships of pool groups to the climate, altitude and land cover variables were assessed using constrained and partial ordinations. Ordination of the species pool data indicated a major trend between squares in the north-west of Scotland and those in southern England, illustrating differences in acid and basic water standing water. Secondary variation was from acid standing water to fast-flowing streams and rivers. Classification generated nine species pool groups. These showed a distinct north-west to south-east trend but there was no obvious coastal or brackish water effect on distribution. The climatic and land cover variables were all significantly related to each other, and to north-south variation in grid square location, but the constrained ordination results indicated that that the most important influence on water beetle species pool distribution was mean summer temperature. Although the amount of variation explained by the environmental variables was low, spatial variation in the environmental predictors was almost as important as the environmental variables themselves in determining species pool composition. Mean annual temperature was also strongly correlated with species pool distribution with two land cover variables slightly less important. Altitude and precipitation had the least influence. The water beetle national recording scheme database appears to be of sufficiently high quality for environmental investigations at the British scale. There is considerable potential for the synthesis of invertebrate species distribution, land cover and climate change predictions in the assessment of environmental change. The results, together with previous work on other invertebrate species, indicate that changing summer temperatures may have a considerable influence on the distribution British invertebrate species.