Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

Background

Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.

Methods and Findings

Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%–31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.

Conclusions

With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Yellow Fever Outbreaks in Unvaccinated Populations,Brazil, 2008–2009

Due to the risk of severe vaccine-associated adverse events, yellow fever vaccination in Brazil is only recommended in areas considered at risk for disease. From September 2008 through June 2009, two outbreaks of yellow fever in previously unvaccinated populations resulted in 21 confirmed cases with 9 deaths (case-fatality, 43%) in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and 28 cases with 11 deaths (39%) in Sao Paulo state. Epizootic deaths of non-human primates were reported before and during the outbreak. Over 5.5 million doses of yellow fever vaccine were administered in the two most affected states. Vaccine-associated adverse events were associated with six deaths due to acute viscerotropic disease (0.8 deaths per million doses administered) and 45 cases of acute neurotropic disease (5.6 per million doses administered). Yellow fever vaccine recommendations were revised to include areas in Brazil previously not considered at risk for yellow fever.     

2017–2022年中国口蹄疫流行状况分析

【目的】分析近年来中国口蹄疫流行和传播特点,研判口蹄疫流行趋势。【方法】以2017-2022年间中国报告发生的口蹄疫疫情为研究对象,从疫情的“三间分布”、生产环节分布、流行毒株分子流行病学分析及溯源等方面,对近6年的疫情情况进行系统梳理。【结果】2017-2022年间中国共有15个省份报告发生口蹄疫疫情54次。总体形势稳定：Asia 1型口蹄疫维持无疫状态;2019-2022年连续4年未发生A型口蹄疫疫情;田间以散发O型口蹄疫为主。六年间报告牛口蹄疫疫情36次,羊疫情1次,猪疫情17次。分子流行病学研究表明,O/Mya-98、O/Ind-2001、O/CATHAY、O/PanAsia和A/Sea-97这5个流行毒株同时流行,且与同时期周边国家（缅甸、老挝和越南等）口蹄疫毒株遗传关系密切。流行病学调查结果显示,疫情（尤其是牛疫情,占比66.7%）主要发生在流通（57%）、散养（32%）等免疫薄弱环节。【结论】对内强化疫苗免疫和流通动物管控,对外严防境外毒株传入仍是今后中国口蹄疫防控的重要任务。     

Yellow fever in Africa: public health impact and prospects for control in the 21st century

In the last two decades, yellow fever re-emerged with vehemence to constitute a major public health problem in Africa. The disease has brought untold hardship and indescribable misery among different populations in Africa. It is one of Africa's stumbling blocks to economic and social development. Despite landmark achievements made in the understanding of the epidemiology of yellow fever disease and the availability of a safe and efficacious vaccine, yellow fever remains a major public health problem in both Africa and America where the disease affects annually an estimated 200,000 persons causing an estimated 30,000 deaths. Africa contributes more than 90% of global yellow fever morbidity and mortality. Apart from the severity in morbidity and mortality, which are grossly under reported, successive outbreaks of yellow fever and control measures have disrupted existing health care delivery services, overstretched scarce internal resources, fatigued donor assistance and resulted in gross wastage of vaccines. Recent epidemics of yellow fever in Africa have affected predominantly children under the age of fifteen years. Yellow fever disease can be easily controlled. Two examples from Africa suffice to illustrate this point. Between 1939 and 1952, yellow fever virtually disappeared in parts of Africa, where a systematic mass vaccination programme was in place. More recently, following the 1978-1979 yellow fever epidemic in the Gambia, a mass yellow fever vaccination programme was carried out, with a 97% coverage of the population over 6 months of age. Subsequently, yellow fever vaccination was added to the EPI Programme. The Gambia has since then maintained a coverage of over 80%, without a reported case of yellow fever, despite being surrounded by Senegal which experienced yellow fever outbreaks in 1995 and 1996. The resurgence of yellow fever in Africa and failure to control the disease has resulted from a combination of several factors, including: 1) collapse of health care delivery systems; 2) lack of appreciation of the full impact of yellow fever disease on the social and economic development of the affected communities; 3) insufficient political commitment to yellow fever control by governments of endemic countries; 4) poor or inadequate disease surveillance; 5) inappropriate disease control measures, and 6) preventable poverty coupled with misplaced priorities in resource allocation. Yellow fever can be controlled in Africa within the next 10 years, if African governments seize the initiative for yellow fever control by declaring an uncompromising resolve to control the disease, the governments back up their resolve with an unrelenting commitment and unwavering political will through adequate budgetary allocations for yellow fever control activities, and international organisations, such as WHO, UNICEF, GAVI, etc., provide support and technical leadership and guidance to yellow fever at risk countries. Over a ten-year period, of stage-by-stage mass yellow fever vaccination campaigns, integrated with successful routine immunisation, Africa can bring yellow fever under control. Subsequently, for yellow fever to cease being a public health problem, Africa must maintain at least an annual 80% yellow fever vaccine coverage of children under the age of 1 year, and sustain a reliable disease surveillance system with a responsive disease control programme. This can be achieved at an affordable annual expenditure of less than US$1.00 per person per year, with a reordering of priorities.     

Surveillance for Yellow Fever Virus in Non-Human Primates in Southern Brazil, 2001–2011: A Tool for Prioritizing Human Populations for Vaccination

In Brazil, epizootics among New World monkey species may indicate circulation of yellow fever (YF) virus and provide early warning of risk to humans. Between 1999 and 2001, the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul initiated surveillance for epizootics of YF in non-human primates to inform vaccination of human populations. Following a YF outbreak, we analyzed epizootic surveillance data and assessed YF vaccine coverage, timeliness of implementation of vaccination in unvaccinated human populations. From October 2008 through June 2009, circulation of YF virus was confirmed in 67 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul State; vaccination was recommended in 23 (34%) prior to the outbreak and in 16 (24%) within two weeks of first epizootic report. In 28 (42%) municipalities, vaccination began more than two weeks after first epizootic report. Eleven (52%) of 21 laboratory-confirmed human YF cases occurred in two municipalities with delayed vaccination. By 2010, municipalities with confirmed YF epizootics reported higher vaccine coverage than other municipalities that began vaccination. In unvaccinated human populations timely response to epizootic events is critical to prevent human yellow fever cases.     

First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: A pooled self-controlled case series study of 11.6 million individuals in England,Scotland, and Wales

BackgroundSeveral countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales.Methods and findingsWe created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk–benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.

In a pooled self-controlled case series study, Steven Kerr and colleagues assess the association between first dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in England, Scotland and Wales.     

儿童重症监护病房医院感染暴发白色念珠菌血流感染4例分析

摘要 目的：探讨儿童重症监护病房白色念珠菌血流感染暴发的临床表现、危险因素、控制措施等,为预防和控制院内白色念珠菌血流感染暴发提供科学依据。方法：以2018年7月我院儿童重症监护病房发生的4例白色念珠菌血流感染暴发患儿为研究对象,分析患儿临床情况、临床特征、危险因素、暴发原因以及采取的预防控制措施。结果：4例医院感染暴发白色念珠菌血流感染患儿均存在基础疾病、有机械通气史、存在中心静脉或动脉置管、静脉或动脉置管前后均使用碘伏消毒、曾使用广谱抗生素、输血制品,白色念珠菌血流感染后最突出的临床表现均是发热。药敏方面,医院感染暴发的4例白色念珠菌感染患儿对唑类及5-氟胞嘧啶均耐药,但对两性霉素B均敏感。经拔除血管置管、减少或者避免广谱抗菌药的应用,根据药敏使用卡泊芬净及两性霉素B抗真菌等积极治疗,1例患儿放弃治疗后死亡,3例患儿顺利出院。通过Fisher确切概率法分析可知,留置中心静脉或动脉置管是儿童重症监护病房发生医院感染暴发白色念珠菌血流感染的危险因素（P<0.05）。结论：留置中心静脉或动脉置管是儿童重症监护病房发生医院感染暴发白色念珠菌血流感染的危险因素,医院感染暴发白色念珠菌血流感染患儿最突出的临床表现是发热,唑类及5-氟胞嘧啶耐药的患儿使用卡泊芬净及两性霉素B可能获得较好的治疗效果。     

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of S?o Paulo,Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.     

Shifts in Geographic Distribution and Antimicrobial Resistance during a Prolonged Typhoid Fever Outbreak — Bundibugyo and Kasese Districts,Uganda, 2009–2011

Background

Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi is transmitted by fecally contaminated food and water and causes approximately 22 million typhoid fever infections worldwide each year. Most cases occur in developing countries, where approximately 4% of patients develop intestinal perforation (IP). In Kasese District, Uganda, a typhoid fever outbreak notable for a high IP rate began in 2008. We report that this outbreak continued through 2011, when it spread to the neighboring district of Bundibugyo.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A suspected typhoid fever case was defined as IP or symptoms of fever, abdominal pain, and ≥1 of the following: gastrointestinal disruptions, body weakness, joint pain, headache, clinically suspected IP, or non-responsiveness to antimalarial medications. Cases were identified retrospectively via medical record reviews and prospectively through laboratory-enhanced case finding. Among Kasese residents, 709 cases were identified from August 1, 2009–December 31, 2011; of these, 149 were identified during the prospective period beginning November 1, 2011. Among Bundibugyo residents, 333 cases were identified from January 1–December 31, 2011, including 128 cases identified during the prospective period beginning October 28, 2011. IP was reported for 507 (82%) and 59 (20%) of Kasese and Bundibugyo cases, respectively. Blood and stool cultures performed for 154 patients during the prospective period yielded isolates from 24 (16%) patients. Three pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern combinations, including one observed in a Kasese isolate in 2009, were shared among Kasese and Bundibugyo isolates. Antimicrobial susceptibility was assessed for 18 isolates; among these 15 (83%) were multidrug-resistant (MDR), compared to 5% of 2009 isolates.

Conclusions/Significance

Molecular and epidemiological evidence suggest that during a prolonged outbreak, typhoid spread from Kasese to Bundibugyo. MDR strains became prevalent. Lasting interventions, such as typhoid vaccination and improvements in drinking water infrastructure, should be considered to minimize the risk of prolonged outbreaks in the future.     

Factors associated to duration of hepatitis a outbreaks: implications for control

Even though hepatitis A mass vaccination effectiveness is high, outbreaks continue to occur. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between duration and characteristics of hepatitis A outbreaks. Hepatitis A (HA) outbreaks reported between 1991 and 2007 were studied. An outbreak was defined as ≥2 epidemiologically-linked cases with ≥1 case laboratory-confirmed by detection of HA immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies. Relationships between explanatory variables and outbreak duration were assessed by logistic regression. During the study period, 268 outbreaks (rate 2.45 per million persons-year) and 1396 cases (rate 1.28 per 10⁵ persons-year) were reported. Factors associated with shorter duration were time to intervention (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94–0.98) and school setting (OR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.16–0.92). In person-to-person transmission outbreaks only time to intervention was associated with shorter outbreak duration (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.95–0.98). The only variables associated with shorter outbreak duration were early administration of IG or vaccine and a school setting. Timely reporting HA outbreaks was associated with outbreak duration. Making confirmed HA infections statutory reportable for clinical laboratories could diminish outbreak duration.     

The epidemiology and disease burden of children hospitalized for viral infections within the family Flaviviridae in China: A national cross-sectional study

BackgroundViruses of the family Flaviviridae, including Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), dengue virus (DENV), yellow fever virus (YFV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV), are widely distributed worldwide. JEV, DENV and YFV belong to the genus Flavivirus, whereas HCV belongs to the genus Hepacivirus. Children’s symptoms are usually severe. As a result, rates of hospitalization due to infection with these viruses are high. The epidemiology and disease burden of hospitalized children have rarely been described in detail to date. The objective of this study was to report the general epidemiological characteristics, clinical phenotype, length of stay (LOS), burden of disease, and potential risk factors for hospitalized children infected with JEV, DENV, YFV, or HCV in Chinese pediatric hospitals.MethodologyA cross-sectional study of epidemiology and disease burden of children hospitalized for Flaviviridae virus infections between December 2015 and December 2020 in China was performed. Face sheets of discharge medical records (FSMRs) were collected from 27 tertiary children’s hospitals in the Futang Research Center of Pediatric Development and aggregated into FUTang Update medical REcords (FUTURE). Information on sociodemographic variables, clinical phenotype, and LOS as well as economic burden was included in FSMRs and compared using appropriate statistical tests.FindingsThe study described 490 children aged 0–15 years hospitalized for infections with Flaviviridae viruses. Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases are the highest, accounting for 92.65% of the total hospitalization cases caused by Flaviviridae virus infection. The incidence of JE peaked from July to October with a profile of a high proportion of severe cases (68.06%) and low mortality (0.44%). Rural children had a significantly higher incidence than urban children (91.63%). Most hospitalized dengue cases were reported in 2019 when dengue outbreaks occurred in many provinces of China, although only 14 dengue cases were collected during the study period. Yellow fever (YF) is still an imported disease in China. The hospitalizations for children with hepatitis C (HC) were not high, and mild chronic HC was the main clinical phenotype of patients. Among the four viral infections, JE had the highest disease burden (LOS and expenditure) for hospitalized children.ConclusionFirst, the present study reveals that JE remains the most serious disease due to Flaviviridae virus infection and threatens children’s health in China. Many pediatric patients have severe illnesses, but their mortality rate is lower, suggesting that existing treatment is effective. Both JEV vaccination and infection control of rural children should represent a focus of study. Second, although the dual risks of indigenous epidemics and imports of DENV still exist, the prevalence of DENV in children is generally manageable. Third, YFV currently shows no evidence of an epidemic in China. Finally, the proportion of children with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is relatively large among hospitalized children diagnosed with HCV. Thus, early and effective intervention should be offered to children infected with HCV to ease the burden of CHC on public health.     

Expansion of Aedes africanus (Diptera: Culicidae), a sylvatic vector of arboviruses,into an urban environment of Abidjan,Côte d'Ivoire

In 2008, an outbreak of yellow fever occurred in Abidjan. The entomological investigations confirm that Abidjan is at risk of yellow fever with a suspicion of the National Park of Banco (NPB) forest as a likely area of re‐emergence. This study aims to assess the dispersion of sylvatic vectors of arboviruses from the NPB forest to the surrounding areas (Andokoi and Sagbé). The sampling was done in the rainy season using the WHO layer‐traps technique. Among the six species of Aedes sampled, Aedes aegypti and Aedes africanus were the potential vectors of arboviruses. Both species were collected in Sagbé but only Ae. aegypti in Andokoi. Only Ae. aegypti were present 400 and 800 m from NPB forest, but at 200 m, it showed respective proportions of 75.5% and 87.5% in Sagbé and Andokoi. In the NPB forest, however, Ae. africanus has been the predominant species. The study showed the presence of Ae. aegypti in Andokoi and Sagbé. However, Ae. africanus was found in the NPB forest and in the 200 m radius in Sagbé. The establishment of an entomological surveillance program in all areas would therefore be essential for the prevention of arboviruses outbreaks in Abidjan.     

A Modeling Approach to Investigate Epizootic Outbreaks and Enzootic Maintenance of Rift Valley Fever Virus

We propose a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of Rift Valley fever (RVF) virus among ruminants. Our findings indicate that in endemic areas RVF virus maintains at a very low level among ruminants after outbreaks and subsequent outbreaks may occur when new susceptible ruminants are recruited into endemic areas or abundant numbers of mosquitoes emerge when herd immunity decreases. Many factors have been shown to have impacts on the severity of RVF outbreaks; a higher probability of death due to RVF among ruminants, a higher mosquito:ruminant ratio, or a shorter lifespan of animals can amplify the magnitude of the outbreaks; vaccination helps to reduce the magnitude of RVF outbreaks and the loss of animals efficiently, and the maximum vaccination effort (a high vaccination rate and a larger number of vaccinated animals) is recommended before the commencement of an outbreak but can be reduced later during the enzootic.     

Q Fever Knowledge,Attitudes and Vaccination Status of Australia’s Veterinary Workforce in 2014

Q fever, caused by Coxiella burnetii, is a serious zoonotic disease in humans with a worldwide distribution. Many species of animals are capable of transmitting C. burnetii, and consequently all veterinary workers are at risk for this disease. An effective Q fever vaccine has been readily available and used in Australia for many years in at-risk groups, and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has recently also called for the use of this vaccine among at-risk groups in Europe. Little is known about attitudes towards this vaccine and vaccine uptake in veterinary workers. This study aimed to determine the Q fever vaccination status of veterinarians and veterinary nurses in Australia and to assess and compare the knowledge and attitudes towards Q fever disease and vaccination of each cohort. An online cross-sectional survey performed in 2014 targeted all veterinarians and veterinary nurses in Australia. Responses from 890 veterinarians and 852 veterinary nurses were obtained. Binary, ordinal and multinomial logistic regression were used to make comparisons between the two cohorts. The results showed that 74% of veterinarians had sought vaccination compared to only 29% of veterinary nurses. Barriers to vaccination among those not vaccinated did not differ between cohorts, and included a lack of perceived risk, financial expense, time constraints, and difficulty in finding a vaccine provider. Poor knowledge and awareness of Q fever disease and vaccination were additional and notable barriers for the veterinary nursing cohort, suggesting veterinary clinics and veterinarians may not be meeting their legal responsibility to educate staff about risks and risk prevention. Further evaluation is needed to identify the drivers behind seeking and recommending vaccination so that recommendations can be made to improve vaccine uptake.     

Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

Background

To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya.

Methods

Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya.

Results

The final output was a RVF risk map that classified 101 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 21 districts as high risk, and 100 of 391 divisions (26%) located in 35 districts as medium risk and 190 divisions (48%) as low risk, including all 97 divisions in Nyanza and Western provinces. The risk of RVF was positively associated with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), low altitude below 1000m and high precipitation in areas with solonertz, luvisols and vertisols soil types (p <0.05).

Conclusion

RVF risk map serves as an important tool for developing and deploying prevention and control measures against the disease.     

Sporadic outbreaks of crimean-congo haemorrhagic fever in Uganda,July 2018-January 2019

IntroductionCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne, zoonotic viral disease that causes haemorrhagic symptoms. Despite having eight confirmed outbreaks between 2013 and 2017, all within Uganda’s ‘cattle corridor’, no targeted tick control programs exist in Uganda to prevent disease. During a seven-month-period from July 2018-January 2019, the Ministry of Health confirmed multiple independent CCHF outbreaks. We investigated to identify risk factors and recommend interventions to prevent future outbreaks.MethodsWe defined a confirmed case as sudden onset of fever (≥37.5°C) with ≥4 of the following signs and symptoms: anorexia, vomiting, diarrhoea, headache, abdominal pain, joint pain, or sudden unexplained bleeding in a resident of the affected districts who tested positive for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFv) by RT-PCR from 1 July 2018–30 January 2019. We reviewed medical records and performed active case-finding. We conducted a case-control study and compared exposures of case-patients with age-, sex-, and sub-county-matched control-persons (1:4).ResultsWe identified 14 confirmed cases (64% males) with five deaths (case-fatality rate: 36%) from 11 districts in western and central region. Of these, eight (73%) case-patients resided in Uganda’s ‘cattle corridor’. One outbreak involved two case-patients and the remainder involved one. All case-patients had fever and 93% had unexplained bleeding. Case-patients were aged 6–36 years, with persons aged 20–44 years more affected (AR: 7.2/1,000,000) than persons ≤19 years (2.0/1,000,000), p = 0.015. Most (93%) case-patients had contact with livestock ≤2 weeks before symptom onset. Twelve (86%) lived <1 km from grazing fields compared with 27 (48%) controls (OR_M-H = 18, 95% CI = 3.2-∞) and 10 (71%) of 14 case-patients found ticks attached to their bodies ≤2 weeks before symptom onset, compared to 15 (27%) of 56 control-persons (OR_M-H = 9.3, 95%CI = 1.9–46).ConclusionsCCHF outbreaks occurred sporadically during 2018–2019, both within and outside ‘cattle corridor’ districts of Uganda. Most cases were associated with tick exposure. The Ministry of Health should partner with the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries to develop joint nationwide tick control programs and strategies with shared responsibilities through a One Health approach.     

Risk Map of Cholera Infection for Vaccine Deployment: The Eastern Kolkata Case

Background

Despite advancement of our knowledge, cholera remains a public health concern. During March-April 2010, a large cholera outbreak afflicted the eastern part of Kolkata, India. The quantification of importance of socio-environmental factors in the risk of cholera, and the calculation of the risk is fundamental for deploying vaccination strategies. Here we investigate socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas as well as the potential impact of vaccination on the spatial occurrence of the disease.

Methods and Findings

The study area comprised three wards of Kolkata Municipal Corporation. A mass cholera vaccination campaign was conducted in mid-2006 as the part of a clinical trial. Cholera cases and data of the trial to identify high risk areas for cholera were analyzed. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to detect risk areas, and to evaluate the importance of socio-environmental characteristics between high and low risk areas. During the one-year pre-vaccination and two-year post-vaccination periods, 95 and 183 cholera cases were detected in 111,882 and 121,827 study participants, respectively. The GAM model predicts that high risk areas in the west part of the study area where the outbreak largely occurred. High risk areas in both periods were characterized by poor people, use of unsafe water, and proximity to canals used as the main drainage for rain and waste water. Cholera vaccine uptake was significantly lower in the high risk areas compared to low risk areas.

Conclusion

The study shows that even a parsimonious model like GAM predicts high risk areas where cholera outbreaks largely occurred. This is useful for indicating where interventions would be effective in controlling the disease risk. Data showed that vaccination decreased the risk of infection. Overall, the GAM-based risk map is useful for policymakers, especially those from countries where cholera remains to be endemic with periodic outbreaks.     

Early onset of neurological features differentiates two outbreaks of Lassa fever in Ebonyi state,Nigeria during 2017–2018

Lassa fever (LF) is an acute viral haemorrhagic illness with various non-specific clinical manifestations. Neurological symptoms are rare at the early stage of the disease, but may be seen in late stages, in severely ill patients.The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological evolution, socio-demographic profiles, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of patients seen during two Lassa fever outbreaks in Ebonyi State, between December 2017 and December 2018.Routinely collected clinical data from all patients admitted to the Virology Centre of the hospital during the period were analysed retrospectively. Out of a total of 83 cases, 70(84.3%) were RT-PCR confirmed while 13 (15.7%) were probable cases. Sixty-nine (83.1%) patients were seen in outbreak 1 of whom 53.6% were urban residents, while 19%, 15%, and 10% were farmers, students and health workers respectively. There were 14 (16.8%) patients, seen in second outbreak with 92.9% rural residents. There were differences in clinical symptoms, signs and laboratory findings between the two outbreaks. The case fatality rates were 29.9% in outbreak 1 and 85.7% for outbreak 2. Neurological features and abnormal laboratory test results were associated with higher mortality rate, seen in outbreak 2. This study revealed significant differences between the two outbreaks. Of particular concern was the higher case fatality during the outbreak 2 which may be from a more virulent strain of the Lassa virus. This has important public health implications and further molecular studies are needed to better define its characteristics.     

Dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemiology in Thailand: description and forecasting of epidemics

Despite the use of a variety of control strategies, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) control is a major and permanent challenge for public health services in Thailand and in Southeast Asia. In order to improve the efficiency of DHF control in Thailand, these activities have to concentrate on areas and populations at higher risk, which implies early identification of higher incidence periods. A retrospective study of spatial and temporal variations of DHF incidence in all 73 provinces of Thailand (1983-1995) allowed discrimination between seasonal (endemic) transmission dependent on climatic variations and vector density and non-seasonal (epidemic) transmission, mainly due to the occurrence of a new virus serotype in a population with low immunity. To identify epidemic months, which appear significantly clustered, a significant deviation from the monthly average incidence was defined. The occurrence of two consecutive epidemic months in a given area has a high probability (P = 0.66) of being followed by a cluster of 2-18 epidemic months (average: 7.7 months). This observation is proposed as a warning of epidemic outbreak enabling an early launch of control activities. As an example, when this method is retrospectively applied to the studied period, 11,388 province months (73 provinces x 156 months), 579 epidemic outbreaks (5.1% of the total) are identified. Control activities can thus be improved through early management and prevention of the 308,636 supplementary cases occurring during epidemics (37.0% of the total recorded).     

Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks

Background

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya.

Methods and Findings

We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3–4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall.

Conclusions/Significance

Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever) and human (chikungunya) populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies.