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1.
Climatic and landscape patterns have been associated with both relative mosquito abundance and transmission of mosquito-borne illnesses in many parts of the world, especially warm and tropical climes. To determine if temperature, precipitation, or degree of urbanization were similarly important in the number of potential mosquito vectors for West Nile virus in the moderately temperate climate of western Washington, mosquitoes were collected using CDC carbon-dioxide/light traps set throughout the Seattle region during the summers of 2003 and 2004. The type and abundance of recovered species were compared to ecological correlates. Temperature and mosquito abundance were positively correlated, while precipitation was not strongly correlated with numbers of mosquitoes. Potential WNV mosquito vectors were most abundant in urban and suburban sites, including sites near communal roosts of American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos). Exurban sites had the greatest vector species diversity, and Culex pipiens was the most abundant species throughout the region.  相似文献   

2.
It is currently unclear if the potential for West Nile virus transmission by mosquito vectors in the eastern United States is related to landscape or climate factors or both. We compared abundance of vector species between urban and suburban neighborhoods of Henrico County, VA, in relation to the following factors: temperature, precipitation, canopy cover, building footprint, and proximity to drainage infrastructure. Mosquitoes were collected throughout the 2005, 2006, and 2007 seasons and tested for West Nile virus (WNV) in pools of 10–50. Test results of mosquito pools were compared to average site abundance from 37 sites in Henrico County, VA; abundance was then examined in relation to ecological variables. Urban infrastructure was positively correlated with the abundance of Culex pipiens L./Cx. restuans, and our findings implicate combined sewer overflow systems as large contributors to Culex vector populations. No measure of urbanization examined in our study was correlated with Aedes albopictus abundance. Our study showed that certain landscape variables identified using Geographic Information Systems are valuable for predicting primary WNV vector abundance in Virginia, and that temperature along with low precipitation are strong predictors of population growth. Our results support other regional studies that found WNV proliferates under drought conditions.  相似文献   

3.
Host selection by vector mosquitoes is a critical component of virus proliferation, particularly for viruses such as West Nile (WNV) that are transmitted enzootically to a variety of avian hosts, and tangentially to dead-end hosts such as humans. Culex tarsalis is a principal vector of WNV in rural areas of western North America. Based on previous work, Cx. tarsalis utilizes a variety of avian and mammalian hosts and tends to feed more frequently on mammals in the late summer than during the rest of the year. To further explore this and other temporal changes in host selection, bloodfed females were collected at a rural farmstead and heron nesting site in Northern California from May 2008 through May 2009, and bloodmeal hosts identified using either a microsphere-based array or by sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene. Host composition during summer was dominated by four species of nesting Ardeidae. In addition, the site was populated with various passerine species as well as domestic farm animals and humans. When present, Cx. tarsalis fed predominantly (>80%) upon the ardeids, with Black-crowned Night-Herons, a highly competent WNV host, the most prevalent summer host. As the ardeids fledged and left the area and mosquito abundance increased in late summer, Cx. tarsalis feeding shifted to include more mammals, primarily cattle, and a high diversity of avian species. In the winter, Yellow-billed Magpies and House Sparrows were the predominant hosts, and Yellow-billed Magpies and American Robins were fed upon more frequently than expected given their relative abundance. These data demonstrated that host selection was likely based both on host availability and differences in utilization, that the shift of bloodfeeding to include more mammalian hosts was likely the result of both host availability and increased mosquito abundance, and that WNV-competent hosts were fed upon by Cx. tarsalis throughout the year.  相似文献   

4.
Culex pipiens mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in Cx. pipiens abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance.  相似文献   

5.
Climate-based models simulating Culex mosquito population abundance in the Northeastern US were developed. Two West Nile vector species, Culex pipiens and Culex restuans, were included in model simulations. The model was optimized by a parameter-space search within biological bounds. Mosquito population dynamics were driven by major environmental factors including temperature, rainfall, evaporation rate and photoperiod. The results show a strong correlation between the timing of early population increases (as early warning of West Nile virus risk) and decreases in late summer. Simulated abundance was highly correlated with actual mosquito capture in New Jersey light traps and validated with field data. This climate-based model simulates the population dynamics of both the adult and immature mosquito life stage of Culex arbovirus vectors in the Northeastern US. It is expected to have direct and practical application for mosquito control and West Nile prevention programs.  相似文献   

6.
祁连山作为我国重要的生态功能区、西北地区重要的生态安全屏障和河流产流区,是气候变化敏感区和生态环境脆弱区,其生态环境对西北地区经济发展起着重要作用。本研究利用祁连山区气温和降水观测数据、MOD10A2积雪产品以及石羊河、黑河和疏勒河流量资料,系统分析了1961—2020年祁连山区的气候变化特征,以及在气候变暖背景下,气候变化对祁连山区水资源的影响。结果表明: 1961—2020年,祁连山区平均气温呈显著上升趋势,升温速率达0.39 ℃·(10 a)-1,西段升温速率最大,中、东段次之,冬季升温趋势最显著,春季最小;祁连山区平均气温在1997年发生突变。祁连山区年降水量总体呈波动增加趋势[10 mm·(10 a)-1],中段增加最明显,2004年以来祁连山区处于多雨时期,气候呈暖湿化趋势;四季降水量均呈增加趋势,夏季降水增加对年降水贡献最大;年降水以年际尺度变化为主,2.8年的年际尺度贡献率高达64.3%。祁连山积雪面积受气温和降雪影响明显,与夏季气温存在负相关,与降雪量存在正相关;2016—2020年,祁连山增温趋缓、降雪增多,积雪面积呈增加趋势。2000年以来,祁连山升温加剧,降水增多,冰雪融水增加,石羊河、黑河和疏勒河出山径流均呈增加趋势。研究结果对祁连山区生态文明建设和应对气候变化具有重要意义。  相似文献   

7.
A survey (1964-1973) was conducted on naturally occurring western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) virus infections of Richardson's ground squirrels (RGS) in agricultural areas of Saskatchewan. The survey included both serology and virus isolation attempts on live-trapped wild squirrels. Throughout the study, seropostive squirrels were found in the known enzootic regions of the province each summer. The infections rate was high (11.6% of 250) in the epidemic year of 1965 and low (less than 2% of 681) in the subsequent non-epidemic years. The maximal seasonal prevalence of seropositive RGS coincided with the time when the squirrel population and aedine mosquito abundance reached their seasonal peaks. Five virus isolations were obtained from the blood and brains of naturally infected squirrels. All isolations were from squirrels collected in June. The early seasonal infections in squirrels could provide a source of virus for Culex tarsalis, the epidemic vector. In view of their abundance in the enzootic agricultural areas and the high annual population turnover, the RGS may play an important role in the natural history of WEE virus in the Canadian prairies.  相似文献   

8.
Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model (P < 0.0001). Dry environments in southern California produce different mosquito population trends than moist locations in Florida. Florida and California mosquito populations are generally temperature-limited in winter. In California, locations are water-limited through much of the year. Using future climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.  相似文献   

9.
Paz S  Albersheim I 《EcoHealth》2008,5(1):40-48
Climate change and West Nile fever (WNV) are both subjects of global importance. Many mosquitoes and the diseases they carry, including West Nile virus (WNV), are sensitive to temperature increase. The current study analyzes the lag correlations between weather conditions (especially air temperature) and 1) Culex pipiens mosquito population abundance, and 2) WNF frequency in humans, between 2001 and 2005 in Israel. These 5 years follow a long period with a documented tendency for temperature increase in the hot season in the country. Monthly anomalies of minimum and maximum temperatures, relative seasonal rainfall contribution, mosquito samplings (hazard level), and WNF cases (hospital admission dates and patients’ addresses) were analyzed. Logistic regression was calculated between the climatic data and the mosquito samples, as Spearman correlations and Pearson cross-correlations were calculated between daily temperature values (or daily precipitation amounts) and the hospital admission dates. It was found that the disease appearance reflects the population distribution, while the risk tends to escalate around the metropolis characterized by an urban heat island. Positive anomalies of the temperature during the study period appear to have facilitated the mosquito abundance and, consequently, the disease emergence in humans. An important finding is the potential influence of extreme heat in the early spring on the vector population increase and on the disease’s appearance weeks later. Awareness of such situations at the beginning of the spring may help authorities to reduce the disease risk before it becomes a real danger.  相似文献   

10.
The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009–2011, a period following the combined storm water – sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.  相似文献   

11.
Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus that causes extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic ruminants in Africa, and it has shown the potential to invade other areas such as the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we develop methods for linking mathematical models to real-world data that could be used for continent-scale risk assessment given adequate data on local host and vector populations. We have applied the methods to a well-studied agricultural region of California with 1 million dairy cattle, abundant and competent mosquito vectors, and a permissive climate that has enabled consistent transmission of West Nile virus and historically other arboviruses. Our results suggest that RVFV outbreaks could occur from February–November, but would progress slowly during winter–early spring or early fall and be limited spatially to areas with early increases in vector abundance. Risk was greatest in summer, when the areas at risk broadened to include most of the dairy farms in the study region, indicating the potential for considerable economic losses if an introduction were to occur. To assess the threat that RVFV poses to North America, including what-if scenarios for introduction and control strategies, models such as this one should be an integral part of the process; however, modeling must be paralleled by efforts to address the numerous remaining gaps in data and knowledge for this system.  相似文献   

12.
Sphagnum mosses form a major component of northern peatlands, which are expected to experience substantially higher increases in temperature and winter precipitation than the global average. Sphagnum may play an important role in the responses of the global carbon cycle to climate change. We investigated the responses of summer length growth, carpet structure and production in Sphagnum fuscum to experimentally induced changes in climate in a sub‐arctic bog. Thereto, we used open‐top chambers (OTCs) to create six climate scenarios including changes in summer temperatures, and changes in winter snow cover and spring temperatures. In winter, the OTCs doubled the snow thickness, resulting in 0.5–2.8°C higher average air temperatures. Spring air temperatures in OTCs increased by 1.0°C. Summer warming had a maximum effect of 0.9°C, while vapor pressure deficit was not affected. The climate manipulations had strong effects on S. fuscum. Summer warming enhanced the length increment by 42–62%, whereas bulk density decreased. This resulted in a trend (P<0.10) of enhanced biomass production. Winter snow addition enhanced dry matter production by 33%, despite the fact that the length growth and bulk density did not change significantly. The addition of spring warming to snow addition alone did not significantly enhance this effect, but we may have missed part of the early spring growth. There were no interactions between the manipulations in summer and those in winter/spring, indicating that the effects were additive. Summer warming may in the long term negatively affect productivity through the adverse effects of changes in Sphagnum structure on moisture holding and transporting capacity. Moreover, the strong length growth enhancement may affect interactions with other mosses and vascular plants. Because winter snow addition enhanced the production of S. fuscum without affecting its structure, it may increase the carbon balance of northern peatlands.  相似文献   

13.
Saskatchewan, in the summer of 1962, was the scene of an extensive outbreak of western equine encephalomyelitis (WEE) in horses. The results of mosquito survey work showed Culiseta inornata and Culex tarsalis respectively to be the two most abundant mosquito species during midsummer. These species are those reported to be most commonly associated with outbreaks of WEE. Five hundred and sixty-four pools of mosquitoes were examined for the presence of WEE virus. Six pools, three of C. tarsalis and one each of C. inornata, Aedes flavescens and Aedes dorsalis, yielded WEE virus. Positive mosquitoes were from St. Walburg (C. inornata), Saskatoon (C. tarsalis - two, A. dorsalis - one), Outlook (C. tarsalis) and Kisbey (A. flavescens).  相似文献   

14.
As global temperatures increase, the potential for longer growing seasons to enhance the terrestrial carbon sink has been proposed as a mechanism to reduce the rate of further warming. At the Niwot Ridge AmeriFlux site, a subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we used a 9‐year record (1999–2007) of continuous eddy flux observations to show that longer growing season length (GSL) actually resulted in less annual CO2 uptake. Years with a longer GSL were correlated with a shallower snow pack, as measured using snow water equivalent (SWE). Furthermore, years with a lower SWE correlated with an earlier start of spring. For three years, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we used observations of stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) of snow vs. rain, and extracted xylem water from the three dominant tree species, lodgepole pine, Engelmann spruce, and subalpine fir, to show that the trees relied heavily on snow melt water even late into the growing season. By mid‐August, 57% to 68% of xylem water reflected the isotopic signature of snow melt. By coupling the isotopic water measurements with an ecosystem model, SIPNET, we found that annual forest carbon uptake was highly dependent on snow water, which decreases in abundance during years with longer growing seasons. Once again, for the 3 years 2005, 2006, and 2007, annual gross primary productivity, which was derived as an optimized parameter from the SIPNET model was estimated to be 67% 77%, and 71% dependent on snow melt water, respectively. Past studies have shown that the mean winter snow pack in mountain ecosystems of the Western US has been declining for decades and is correlated with positive winter temperature anomalies. Since climate change models predict continuation of winter warming and reduced snow in mountains of the Western US, the strength of the forest carbon sink is likely to decline further.  相似文献   

15.
为阐明不同树种间树木径向生长对气候变化的响应及其时间稳定性,本研究以长白山北坡高海拔处(1600~1750 m)落叶松和鱼鳞云杉为研究对象,运用年轮年代学方法探究树木径向生长与气候的关系.结果表明: 研究区落叶松生长与当年6月最高气温呈显著正相关,与当年6月降水呈负相关;鱼鳞云杉与当年5月最高温度呈显著正相关.冗余分析进一步表明,落叶松生长主要受夏季温度的影响,鱼鳞云杉生长主要受春季温度的制约.在1959—2014年,落叶松生长-夏季温度关系相对稳定;对于鱼鳞云杉,自1986年以来其与春季温度的相关性减弱,可能由于最高温度降低导致树木生长减慢.本研究结果可以为预测气候变化情景下长白山针叶树种生长的响应趋势提供数据支持和理论参考.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change can cause changes in expression of organismal traits that influence fitness. In flowering plants, floral traits can respond to drought, and that phenotypic plasticity has the potential to affect pollination and plant reproductive success. Global climate change is leading to earlier snow melt in snow-dominated ecosystems as well as affecting precipitation during the growing season, but the effects of snow melt timing on floral morphology and rewards remain unknown. We conducted crossed manipulations of spring snow melt timing (early vs. control) and summer monsoon precipitation (addition, control, and reduction) that mimicked recent natural variation, and examined plastic responses in floral traits of Ipomopsis aggregata over 3 years in the Rocky Mountains. We tested whether increased summer precipitation compensated for earlier snow melt, and if plasticity was associated with changes in soil moisture and/or leaf gas exchange. Lower summer precipitation decreased corolla length, style length, corolla width, sepal width, and nectar production, and increased nectar concentration. Earlier snow melt (taking into account natural and experimental variation) had the same effects on those traits and decreased inflorescence height. The effect of reduced summer precipitation was stronger in earlier snow melt years for corolla length and sepal width. Trait reductions were explained by drier soil during the flowering period, but this effect was only partially explained by how drier soils affected plant water stress, as measured by leaf gas exchange. We predicted the effects of plastic trait changes on pollinator visitation rates, pollination success, and seed production using prior studies on I. aggregata. The largest predicted effect of drier soil on relative fitness components via plasticity was a decrease in male fitness caused by reduced pollinator rewards (nectar production). Early snow melt and reduced precipitation are strong drivers of phenotypic plasticity, and both should be considered when predicting effects of climate change on plant traits in snow-dominated ecosystems.  相似文献   

17.
The problem of evaluating the epidemic potential of western equine encephalitis in the northeastern United States is presented and possible reasons are discussed for the present lack of human and horse cases of this disease even though increased numbers of isolations of the virus have been obtained in the East during recent years. Epidemiologic factors of vector bionomics and virus strain variations are considered. It is concluded that while this virus strain can no longer be regarded as uncommon in the Northeast, the evidence indicates there is little potential for epidemic expression of this agent in the human and horse population. This appears to be due to differences in the bionomics of the mosquito Culiseta melanura, which serves as the primary enzootic vector in the northeastern United States and in the bionomics of Culex tarsalis that is the vector in the western region of the United States. Other limiting factors in the epidemic potential may be variations between virus strains located in the East and West.  相似文献   

18.

Background

Temperature and humidity strongly affect the physiology, longevity, fecundity and dispersal behavior of Aedes aegypti, vector of dengue fever. Contrastingly, the statistical associations measured between time series of mosquito abundance and meteorological variables are often weak and contradictory. Here, we investigated the significance of these relationships at different time scales.

Methods and Findings

A time series of the adult mosquito abundance from a medium-sized city in Brazil, lasting 109 weeks was analyzed. Meteorological variables included temperature, precipitation, wind velocity and humidity. As analytical tools, generalized linear models (GLM) with time lags and interaction terms were used to identify average effects while the wavelet analysis was complementarily used to identify transient associations. The fitted GLM showed that mosquito abundance is significantly affected by the interaction between lagged temperature and humidity, and also by the mosquito abundance a week earlier. Extreme meteorological variables were the best predictors, and the mosquito population tended to increase at values above and 54% humidity. The wavelet analysis identified non-stationary local effects of these meteorological variables on abundance throughout the study period, with peaks in the spring-summer period. The wavelet detected weak but significant effects for precipitation and wind velocity.

Conclusion

Our results support the presence of transient relationships between meteorological variables and mosquito abundance. Such transient association may be explained by the ability of Ae. aegypti to buffer part of its response to climate, for example, by choosing sites with proper microclimate. We also observed enough coupling between the abundance and meteorological variables to develop a model with good predictive power. Extreme values of meteorological variables with time lags, interaction terms and previous mosquito abundance are strong predictors and should be considered when understanding the climate effect on mosquito abundance and population growth.  相似文献   

19.
内蒙古草原区植被净初级生产力及其与气候的关系   总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12  
龙慧灵  李晓兵  王宏  魏丹丹  张程 《生态学报》2010,30(5):1367-1378
利用NOAA/AVHRR GIMMSNDVI数据、土地覆盖分类数据、气象数据等,基于改进的基于光能利用率的净初级生产力(Net Primary productivity,NPP)遥感估算模型对内蒙古草原区1982-2006年的NPP进行估算,并分别以年、季节和月为时间单位,计算基于像元的NPP与降水、温度之间的相关及偏相关系数,分析不同时间单位及尺度上NPP与气候的关系。结果表明,1982-2006年内蒙古草原区NPP总量呈波动增加的趋势,平均增加值为0.861Mt C/a。以年为时间单位,内蒙古草原区年NPP与降水的关系比较明显。以季节为时间单位,年际春季和夏季NPP与降水的关系比较明显,秋季二者关系相对较弱,春季和秋季NPP与温度的相关系数和偏相关系数空间格局比较一致,且相关性明显高于夏季。以月为时间单位的相关水平明显高于年际水平,多年平均年内月NPP与降水、温度的相关程度明显增强,除去降水的影响,月均温对NPP的影响明显下降,且空间格局也有明显的变化,说明以月为时间单位在年内尺度上降水对植被生长的影响比温度要大。而以4、7、10月份为例,在年际尺度上,虽然各月份NPP均受降水的影响较大,但与降水关系最为密切的是4月份和10月份NPP,与之相比,7月份NPP与温度的关系明显高于其他两月。  相似文献   

20.
The climate of Atndalen   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
The climate of Atndalen Valley is described by data collected by the standard network of stations currently run by the Norwegian Meteorological institute. It consists of one weather station (Sørneset) with full instrumental equipment, and three precipitation stations with a reduced set of equipment. At the latter stations, precipitation, snow depth, and snow cover are observed. Most of the stations, including the weather station, are situated in the central part of the watershed, near Atnsjøen. The climate of the Atndalen is of a continental type with precipitation minimum in late winter or spring and maximum during summer. The mean annual precipitation is about 500 mm near Atnsjøen (701 m a.s.l.) for the 30 year normal period 1961–1990. At the meteorological station Sørneset the warmest month is July, 11.2?°C, while the coldest month is January, ?9.9?°C, i.e. an annual amplitude of 21.1?°C. The mean cloud cover varies from 4.5 oktas in February to 5.4 oktas in July, September and October. The highest ratio of relative sunshine is about 50% in spring. The mean snow depth increases during winter and early spring and reaches its maximum of 68 cm in March. The snow cover disappears on 9 May ±12 days and establishes on 5 November ±18 days. Variations in precipitation (since 1904) and temperature (since 1864) were studied on a decadal time scale by Gaussian filtering technique, and the significance of trends on the 0.05 level were studied by the Mann–Kendall test. For the whole period no significant trend in annual precipitation was detected. The maximum value was located to the 1920s and the minimum value to the 1910s. Annual mean temperature has increased significantly since 1864, and the classical temperature optimum in the 1930s was surpassed in the 1990s. By adopting a sinus model including the first Fourier component, trends and variations in climatological periods as well as heat and frost sums were studied. The frost free period has since 1864 increased by 13 days within 100 years based on a linear trend line. Earlier passing dates in spring largely account for the increase. The length of the growth season also increased up to about 1950. The annual heat sum shows a linear increase of about 103 daydegrees per 100 years while the annual frost sum varies considerably from period to period and fitted badly with a linear model.  相似文献   

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